Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “FORECASTING MODEL”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,261 records · Page 70
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2016

Reinvestigation into Closure Predictions of Room D at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

Room D was an in-situ, isothermal, underground experiment conducted at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant between 1984 and 1991. The room was carefully instrumented to measure the horizontal and vertical closure immediately upon excavation and for several years thereafter. Early finite element simulations of salt creep around Room D under-predicted the vertical closure by 4.5×, causing investigators to explore a series of changes to the way Room D was modeled. Discrepancies between simulations and measurements were resolved through a series of adjustments to model parameters, which were openly acknowledged in published reports. Interest in Room D has been rekindled recently by the U.S./German Joint Project III and Project WEIMOS, which seek to improve the predictions of rock salt constitutive models. Joint Project participants calibrate their models solely against laboratory tests, and benchmark the models against underground experiments, such as room D. This report describes updating legacy Room D simulations to today’s computational standards by rectifying several numerical issues. Subsequently, the constitutive model used in previous modeling is recalibrated two different ways against a suite of new laboratory creep experiments on salt extracted from the repository horizon of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant. Simulations with the new, laboratory-based, calibrations under-predict Room D vertical closure by 3.1×. A list of potential improvements is discussed.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2016

Thirty-four years of Hawaii wave hindcast from downscaling of climate forecast system reanalysis

The complex wave climate of Hawaii includes a mix of seasonal swells and wind waves from all directions across the Pacific. Numerical hindcasting from surface winds provides essential space-time information to complement buoy and satellite observations for studies of the marine environment. We utilize WAVEWATCH III and SWAN (Simulating WAves Nearshore) in a nested grid system to model basin-wide processes as well as high-resolution wave conditions around the Hawaiian Islands from 1979 to 2013. The wind forcing includes the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) for the globe and downscaled regional winds from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Long-term in-situ buoy measurements and remotely-sensed wind speeds and wave heights allow thorough assessment of the modeling approach and data products for practical application. The high-resolution WRF winds, which include orographic and land-surface effects, are validated with QuickSCAT observations from 2000 to 2009. The wave hindcast reproduces the spatial patterns of swell and wind wave events detected by altimeters on multiple platforms between 1991 and 2009 as well as the seasonal variations recorded at 16 offshore and nearshore buoys around the Hawaiian Islands from 1979 to 2013. The hindcast captures heightened seas in interisland channels and around prominent headlands, but tends to overestimate the heights of approaching northwest swells and give lower estimates in sheltered areas. Finally, the validated high-resolution hindcast sets a baseline for future improvement of spectral wave models.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2016

Galaxy bispectrum, primordial non-Gaussianity and redshift space distortions

Measurements of the non-Gaussianity of the primordial density field have the power to considerably improve our understanding of the physics of inflation. Indeed, if we can increase the precision of current measurements by an order of magnitude, a null-detection would rule out many classes of scenarios for generating primordial fluctuations. Large-scale galaxy redshift surveys represent experiments that hold the promise to realise this goal. Thus, we model the galaxy bispectrum and forecast the accuracy with which it will probe the parameter f {sub NL}, which represents the degree of primordial local-type non Gaussianity. Specifically, we address the problem of modelling redshift space distortions (RSD) in the tree-level galaxy bispectrum including f {sub NL}. We find novel contributions associated with RSD, with the characteristic large scale amplification induced by local-type non-Gaussianity. These RSD effects must be properly accounted for in order to obtain un-biased measurements of f {sub NL} from the galaxy bispectrum. We propose an analytic template for the monopole which can be used to fit against data on large scales, extending models used in the recent measurements. Finally, we perform idealised forecasts on σ {sub f} {sub N{sub L}}—the accuracy of the determination of local non-linear parameter f {sub NL}—from measurements of the galaxy bispectrum. Our findings suggest that current surveys can in principle provide f {sub NL} constraints competitive with Planck , and future surveys could improve them further.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Airborne LiDAR to Improve Canopy Fuels Mapping for Wildfire Modeling

Increasing conflict between wildfire and the built environment has increased the need for more up-to-date and finer resolution canopy fuels data to improve wildfire modeling and associated risk forecasts. The US Forest Service and US Department of the Interior’s LANDFIRE product, which provides 30-m resolution canopy fuels data for the entire US, is one of the most widely used sources of fuels data. However, the last complete mapping effort for LANDFIRE is based on 2016 conditions, and subsequent updates reflect disturbances 1-2 years behind the release year. Airborne systems equipped with Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) sensors can be deployed to actively sense canopy structure and estimate canopy fuels data (cover, height, base height, bulk density) at finer resolutions. Canopy base height (CBH) and canopy bulk density (CBD) are difficult to measure both in the field and in LiDAR point clouds. Still, they are important for accurately modeling crown fires, which are often intense and difficult to contain. Additionally, point cloud datasets are large, and calculations require efficient utilization of computational resources. To address these challenges, we are working on an approach that uses openly available National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) airborne LiDAR data, with calculations processed in the R programming language and parallelized through the lidR package. CBH and CBD are often derived from tree height, diameter at breast height, and species-specific allometries using the Fire and Fuels Extension of the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FFE-FVS). We aim to test if airborne LiDAR can estimate CBH and CBD without the use of empirical equations. Reliable estimates of canopy fuels data directly from airborne LiDAR could streamline quick, fine-resolution updates for use in wildfire behavior models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Operational Probabilistic Tools for Solar Uncertainty (OPTSUN) (Final Project Report for DOE Solar Forecasting II Project)

Increasing levels of solar PV can challenge system operations and may require novel methods to operate the power system reliably and efficiently. Power system operating plans generally use deterministic forecasts, in which the variable energy resources are represented by the expected value for each interval of the decision horizon. Probabilistic forecasts are relatively new but have the potential to address the shortfalls of deterministic forecasts. However, understanding how best to use such forecasts is still a key gap in industry and was the focus of this project. The project had three workstreams. In a forecasting workstream, improvements were made to baseline probabilistic forecasts using a number of new approaches such as machine learning methods and improved input data. In a design workstream, advanced simulation tools used these forecasts to investigate newly proposed reserve determination methods. Lastly, in a demonstration workstream a scheduling management platform (SMP) was developed to leverage probabilistic forecasts in a modular and customizable manner. In order to study the benefits that could be accrued, the project team collaborated with three utility partners (Duke Energy, Southern Company and Hawaiian Electric) to deliver improved probabilistic forecasts for each region and to model each region in case studies using advanced production cost modeling tools. Different methods to determine operating reserve requirements from probabilistic forecasts were developed, simulated, and tested across each region. The benefits of using these newly proposed methods varied by utility, but, in general, using probabilistic forecasts as well as historical data to set the reserve requirements seems to improve reliability related results, with less risk of reserve or supply shortfalls. The cost implications were not always straightforward; in some cases the new methods could show a reduction in expected operating costs, but often the increase in reserves associated with better risk mitigation using probabilistic forecasts could result in an increase in operating costs in the simulations. The SMP tool was developed to process probabilistic forecasts from their initial receipt through to scheduling decisions. This open-source tool consists of several modules for scenario development, reserve requirements calculation, and visualization. The SMP tool was demonstrated to a wide range of operators and stakeholders at all three utilities and further improved based on their feedback. The tool will be available on www.epri.com/optsun. The proposed probabilistic information-based reserve determination approaches have the potential to be implemented by different regions to ensure an economic and reliable power system operation on power systems integrating increasing levels of variable renewable resources. The innovative yet practical methods developed in this project demonstrated tangible benefits from using probabilistic forecasts beyond just study-based assessments to include three unique balancing areas. The demonstrated benefits across the multiple utility environments, are expected to provide system operators in all regions the confidence required and a platform to adopt the new forecasting and operating methods.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Day-ahead continuous double auction-based peer-to-peer energy trading platform incorporating trading losses and network utilisation fee

Integration of distributed energy resources, such as photovoltaic solar (PV), introduces new opportunities to establish local energy market frameworks to improve renewable energy utilisation in residential sectors. Such peer-to-peer (P2P) energy trading refers to a local market structure where customers (and prosumers) interact to share excess PV generation to enhance the individual and community social welfare. In this work, a day-ahead continuous double auction (CDA)-based P2P market structure considering network losses and network utilisation fees was designed. Day-ahead PV energy is modelled using fractional integral polynomials and the output is forecasted using an autoregressive integrated moving average model for each market interval. Based on the customer load and excess PV energy, the CDA market is cleared using a bid/ask matching mechanism. The performance of the P2P market was evaluated by computing different welfare metrics while analysing the effect of network constraints. The results show that the designed CDA-based P2P market structure increases the social welfare of all participants by an average of 17.75% compared to the baseline for the presented cases. Moreover, the impact of the forecasting error between the day-ahead and real-time market was also quantified.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Predicting initial trans-membrane pressure across cycles in the ultrafiltration process using random forest

With growing freshwater scarcity, direct potable reuse (DPR) systems that reclaim wastewater for drinking are becoming increasingly important for sustainable water supply. Reliable operation requires minimizing downtime in ultrafiltration (UF) units, where membrane fouling leads to elevated trans-membrane pressure (TMP). This study develops data-driven regression models based on random forest (RF) and autoregressive (AR) approaches to forecast the initial TMP at the start of each UF filtration cycle in a pilot-scale DPR system. The RF model consistently outperforms baseline methods, including historical mean, last observation carried forward, and AR models, across multiple forecast horizons, achieving the lowest root mean square error. To evaluate how different classes of process variables contribute to TMP dynamics over time, we examine the feature importance of independent input variables across multiple forecast horizons. This analysis provides insight into the temporal relevance of operational and sensor-derived features, guiding control and monitoring strategies. Additionally, the impact of hyperparameter tuning on TMP prediction performance is assessed for both direct and recursive RF modelling approaches. The proposed RF framework establishes a robust foundation for predictive monitoring and real-time optimization of UF operations, supporting sustainable and reliable water reuse.

direct potable reuse↗
DOE OSTI2022

Important powertrain dynamics for developing models for control of connected and automated electrified vehicles

Connected and Automated Vehicles (CAV) technology presents significant opportunities for energy saving in the transportation sector. CAV technology forecasts vehicle and powertrain power needs under various terrain, ambient, and traffic conditions. Integration of the CAV technology in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs) provides the opportunity for optimal vehicle operation. Indeed, Hybrid Electric Vehicle powertrains present high degrees of flexibility and possibility for choosing optimum powertrain modes based on the predicted traction power needs. In modeling complex CAV powertrain dynamics, the modeler needs to consider short-time scale powertrain dynamics, such as engine transients, and hysteresis of mode-switching for a multi-mode HEV. Therefore, the powertrain dynamics essential for developing powertrain controllers for a class of connected HEVs is presented. To this end, control-oriented powertrain dynamic models for a test vehicle consisting of full electric, hybrid, and conventional engine operating modes are developed. The resulting powertrain model can forecast vehicle traction torque and energy consumption for the specified prediction horizon of the test vehicle. The model considers different operating modes and associated energy penalty terms for mode switching. Thus, the vehicle controller can determine the optimum powertrain mode, torque, and speed for forecasted vehicle operation via utilizing connectivity data. The powertrain model is validated against the experimental data and shows prediction error of less than 5% for predicting vehicle energy consumption. The model is used to create energy penalty maps that can be used for CAV control, for example fuel penalty map for engine torque changes (10–40 Nm) at each engine speed. The results of model-based optimization show optimum switching delays ranging from 0.4 to 1.4 s to avoid hysteresis in mode switching.

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2018

Generic HLW Repository In Bedded Salt In Germany: Emplacement Technologies and Repository Designs - 18288

In Germany, a new site selection act for a repository for HLW and SNF entered into force in July 2013 and was amended in spring 2017 [1]. It stipulates that the safety of repository systems for heat-generating radioactive waste and spent nuclear fuel in different host rock formations be compared. This requires that generic repository concepts and adequate safety- and safety demonstration concepts for all potential host rock formations in Germany (salt, clay and crystalline rock) exist. For several decades, development of disposal concepts and safety analyses for a repository in a salt dome was prioritized while repository concepts for clay and crystalline rock have been taken into account for two decades only. So far, bedded salt formations have not been the subject of comparative investigations. Thus, in summer 2015, the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy (BMWi) launched the R and D project KOSINA to develop repository designs and carry out safety analyses for different emplacement alternatives in a generic bedded salt formation and a generic salt pillow. KOSINA is an acronym for 'Concept development for a generic repository for heat-generating waste in bedded salt formations in Germany as well as development and testing of a safety and demonstration concept'. Together with its partners BGR, GRS, and IfG, DBE Technology GmbH has successfully carried out an almost three years lasting scientific programme, which will be concluded in April 2018. The core areas of the programme are the development of generic geologic models, including derivation of model parameters, the development of a safety and safety demonstration concept, the development of technical repository designs for four different emplacement alternatives, the analysis of geomechanical integrity, the evaluation of operational safety as well as the analysis of radiological consequences. An interim report, which compiles the basic data of the waste inventory, the repository design requirements, the data basis for geologic model developments, and the outline of a safety and safety demonstration concept, was already published in February 2016. The main achievements of the R and D project KOSINA are the development of four different repository designs, two per each generic geologic model (flat-bedded salt, salt pillow) based on thermomechanical calculations. This includes the implementation of a safety concept that provides containment of the radioactive materials with regard to the technical designs of waste packages, transport and emplacement technologies, and backfilling and sealing concepts. Furthermore, the integrity of the geologic barriers could be demonstrated for all four repository designs, and the long-term predictions showed no radiological releases during the demonstration period of one million years. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2017

On the Bayesian calibration of computer model mixtures through experimental data, and the design of predictive models

For many real systems, several computer models may exist with different physics and predictive abilities. To achieve more accurate simulations/predictions, it is desirable for these models to be properly combined and calibrated. Here, we propose the Bayesian calibration of computer model mixture method which relies on the idea of representing the real system output as a mixture of the available computer model outputs with unknown input dependent weight functions. The method builds a fully Bayesian predictive model as an emulator for the real system output by combining, weighting, and calibrating the available models in the Bayesian framework. Moreover, it fits a mixture of calibrated computer models that can be used by the domain scientist as a mean to combine the available computer models, in a flexible and principled manner, and perform reliable simulations. It can address realistic cases where one model may be more accurate than the others at different input values because the mixture weights, indicating the contribution of each model, are functions of the input. Inference on the calibration parameters can consider multiple computer models associated with different physics. The method does not require knowledge of the fidelity order of the models. We provide a technique able to mitigate the computational overhead due to the consideration of multiple computer models that is suitable to the mixture model framework. We implement the proposed method in a real-world application involving the Weather Research and Forecasting large-scale climate model.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Machine Learning for Daily Forecasts of Arctic Sea Ice Motion: An Attribution Assessment of Model Predictive Skill

Physics-based simulations of Arctic sea ice are highly complex, involving transport between different phases, length scales, and time scales. Resultantly, numerical simulations of sea ice dynamics have a high computational cost and model uncertainty. We employ data-driven machine learning (ML) to make predictions of sea ice motion. The ML models are built to predict present-day sea ice velocity given present-day wind velocity and previous-day sea ice concentration and velocity. Models are trained using reanalysis winds and satellite-derived sea ice properties. We compare the predictions of three different models: persistence (PS), linear regression (LR), and a convolutional neural network (CNN). We quantify the spatiotemporal variability of the correlation between observations and the statistical model predictions. Additionally, we analyze model performance in comparison to variability in properties related to ice motion (wind velocity, ice velocity, ice concentration, distance from coast, bathymetric depth) to understand the processes related to decreases in model performance. Results indicate that a CNN makes skillful predictions of daily sea ice velocity with a correlation up to 0.81 between predicted and observed sea ice velocity, while the LR and PS implementations exhibit correlations of 0.78 and 0.69, respectively. The correlation varies spatially and seasonally: lower values occur in shallow coastal regions and during times of minimum sea ice extent. LR parameter analysis indicates that wind velocity plays the largest role in predicting sea ice velocity on 1-day time scales, particularly in the central Arctic. Regions where wind velocity has the largest LR parameter are regions where the CNN has higher predictive skill than the LR.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

PFLOTRAN-SIP: A PFLOTRAN Module for Simulating Spectral-Induced Polarization of Electrical Impedance Data

Spectral induced polarization (SIP) is a non-intrusive geophysical method that collects chargeability information (the ability of a material to retain charge) in the time domain or its phase shift in the frequency domain. Although SIP is a temporal method, it cannot measure the dynamics of flow and solute/species transport in the subsurface over long times (i.e., 10–100 s of years). Data collected with the SIP technique need to be coupled with fluid flow and reactive-transport models in order to capture long-term dynamics. To address this challenge, PFLOTRAN-SIP was built to couple SIP data to fluid flow and solute transport processes. Specifically, this framework couples the subsurface flow and transport simulator PFLOTRAN and geoelectrical simulator E4D without sacrificing computational performance. PFLOTRAN solves the coupled flow and solute-transport process models in order to estimate solute concentrations, which were used in Archie’s model to compute bulk electrical conductivities at near-zero frequency. These bulk electrical conductivities were modified while using the Cole–Cole model to account for frequency dependence. Using the estimated frequency-dependent bulk conductivities, E4D simulated the real and complex electrical potential signals for selected frequencies for SIP. These frequency-dependent bulk conductivities contain information that is relevant to geochemical changes in the system. This study demonstrated that the PFLOTRAN-SIP framework is able to detect the presence of a tracer in the subsurface. SIP offers a significant benefit over ERT in the form of greater information content. It provided multiple datasets at different frequencies that better constrained the tracer distribution in the subsurface. Consequently, this framework allows for practitioners of environmental hydrogeophysics and biogeophysics to monitor the subsurface with improved resolution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Post-Calibration Uncertainty Analysis for Travel Times at a Naval Weapons Industrial Reserve Plant

The Naval Weapons Industrial Reserve Plant (NWIRP) in McGregor, Texas began manufacturing explosives in 1980 and several hazardous chemicals were discovered in lakes and streams surrounding the site in 1998. Contaminants traveled to local lakes and streams much faster than initially predicted. This research estimated contaminant travel times and identified locations where monitoring wells should be installed to yield the greatest reductions in uncertainties in travel-time predictions. To this end, groundwater and particle-tracking models for NWIRP site were built to predict hydraulic heads and contaminant travel times. Next, parameter (hydraulic conductivities) uncertainties, parameter identifiabilities, observation (hydraulic heads) worth, and predictive (contaminant travel times) uncertainties were quantified. Parameter uncertainties were reduced by up to 92%; a total of 19 of 158 parameters were at least moderately identifiable; travel-time uncertainties were reduced up to 92%. Additionally, travel-time predictions and post-calibration parameter distributions were generated using the null-space Monte Carlo (NSMC) technique. NSMC predicted that conservative tracers exited the flow system within a year, which matches with field data. Finally, an observations-worth analysis found that additional 11 more measurements would reduce travel-time uncertainties by factors from 1.04 to 4.3 over existing data if monitoring wells were installed at the suggested locations.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2016

Comparison of Measured and Numerically Simulated Turbulence Statistics in a Convective Boundary Layer Over Complex Terrain

High resolution numerical simulation can provide insight into important physical processes that occur within the planetary boundary layer (PBL). The present work employs large eddy simulation (LES) nested within the Weather Forecasting and Research (WRF) framework to simulate real conditions in the convective PBL over an area of complex terrain. A multiple nesting approach has been used to downsize the grid spacing size from 12.15 km (mesoscale) to 0.03 km (LES). To minimize artifacts in theWRF-LES solutions resulting from using an inappropriate grid spacing on the WRF-Meso domain, a careful selection of grid spacing has been conducted. The WRF-LES results have been evaluated with in situ and remote sensing observations collected during the US Department of Energy supported Columbia BasinWind Energy Study (CBWES). The comparison for the first and second order moments, turbulence spectrum, and probability density function (pdf) of wind speed show good agreement between the simulation and data. Furthermore, the WRF-LES variables show a great deal of variability in space and time caused by the complex topography in the LES domain. The WRF-LES results show that the flow structures, such as roll vortices and convective cells, over the domain vary depending on both the spatial location and time of the day. In addition to basic studies related to boundary-layer meteorology, results from these simulations can be used in other applications, such as studying the wind energy resources.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

MSASGCN : Multi-Head Self-Attention Spatiotemporal Graph Convolutional Network for Traffic Flow Forecasting

Traffic flow forecasting is an essential task of an intelligent transportation system (ITS), closely related to intelligent transportation management and resource scheduling. Dynamic spatial-temporal dependencies in traffic data make traffic flow forecasting to be a challenging task. Most existing research cannot model dynamic spatial and temporal correlations to achieve well-forecasting performance. The multi-head self-attention mechanism is a valuable method to capture dynamic spatial-temporal correlations, and combining it with graph convolutional networks is a promising solution. Therefore, we propose a multi-head self-attention spatiotemporal graph convolutional network (MSASGCN) model. It can effectively capture local correlations and potential global correlations of spatial structures, can handle dynamic evolution of the road network, and, in the time dimension, can effectively capture dynamic temporal correlations. Experiments on two real datasets verify the stability of our proposed model, obtaining a better prediction performance than the baseline algorithms. The correlation metrics get significantly reduced compared with traditional time series prediction methods and deep learning methods without using graph neural networks, according to MAE and RMSE results. Compared with advanced traffic flow forecasting methods, our model also has a performance improvement and a more stable prediction performance. We also discuss some problems and challenges in traffic forecasting.

Cao, Yang↗
DOE OSTI2018

Modeling India’s Coal Production with a Negatively Skewed Curve-Fitting Model

India’s coal demand is forecast to increase at a rapid pace in the future due to the country’s economic and population growth. Analyzing the scope for future production of India’s domestic coal resources, therefore, plays a vital role in the country’s development of sound energy policies. This paper presents a quantitative scenario analysis of India’s potential future coal production by using a negatively skewed curve-fitting model and a range of estimates of the country’s ultimately recoverable resources (URR) of coal. The results show that the resource base is sufficient for India’s coal production to keep increasing over the next few decades, to reach between 2400 and 3200 Mt/y at 2050, depending on the assumed value of URR. A further analysis shows that the high end of this range, which corresponds to our ‘GSI’ scenario, can be considered as the probable upper-bound to India’s domestic coal production. Comparison of production based on the ‘GSI’ scenario with India’s predicted demand shows that the domestic production of coal will be insufficient to meet the country’s rising coal demand, with the gap between demand and production increasing from its current value of about 268 Mt/y to reach 300 Mt/y in 2035, and 700 Mt/y by 2050. This increasing gap will be challenging for the energy security of India.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Machine learning for postprocessing ensemble streamflow forecasts

Skillful streamflow forecasts can inform decisions in various areas of water policy and management. We integrate numerical weather prediction ensembles, distributed hydrological model, and machine learning to generate ensemble streamflow forecasts at medium-range lead times (1–7 days). We demonstrate the application of machine learning as postprocessor for improving the quality of ensemble streamflow forecasts. Our results show that the machine learning postprocessor can improve streamflow forecasts relative to low-complexity forecasts (e.g., climatological and temporal persistence) as well as standalone hydrometeorological modeling and neural network. The relative gain in forecast skill from postprocessor is generally higher at medium-range timescales compared to shorter lead times; high flows compared to low–moderate flows, and the warm season compared to the cool ones. Overall, our results highlight the benefits of machine learning in many aspects for improving both the skill and reliability of streamflow forecasts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Hardening of DOE UQ Codes for Ultra-Deep Proactive Geosteering in Oilfield Service

The primary objective of this project was to harden the DOE uncertainty quantification (UQ) code to solve the inverse problem for the geosteering service in the oilfield drilling and exploration. The primary focus is to verify the feasibility of using QUESO to solve geosteering inverse problems through statistical inversion. QUESO is a software library developed by QUEST, a DOE's Scientific Discovery through Advanced Computing (SciDAC) institute. In the process of drilling a borehole, geosteering is the act of adjusting the well trajectory on the fly to reach the geological targets or to keep the wellbore within desired formation. Geosteering inversion is to infer underground formation structure using measurements such as azimuthal resistivity logging data. The geosteering process relies on the real-time reconstruction of the subsurface earth model, and a robust and efficient inversion algorithm is always necessary to satisfy the job requirement. The new generation of azimuthal resistivity geosteering tool is capable of detecting multiple formation boundaries 20-100 ft away, and the corresponding geosteering inversion problem can be very challenging as many parameters need to be inverted within such a large depth of investigation. The success of the project will support US energy security by helping to advance subsurface modeling and characterization technologies in oilfield applications. An effective subsurface inversion algorithm and the implementation as a software package will promote the usage of ultra-deep azimuthal resistivity measurements, which can help well placement in complicated underground environments, reduce costs and risks of drilling, and increase oil and gas production. It will help medium and small size independent service companies and tool manufactures to enter the more advanced and lucrative directional drilling area. In addition, by hardening the QUESO code and building a transparent interface for easy manipulation of the QUESO functions, we provide a user-friendly tool for a larger scientific and industry communities that rely heavily on modeling and simulation tools for forecasting, parameter studies, design, and decision making. These are all activities that can strongly benefit from meaningful representations of modeling uncertainty supported by our product.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗