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At least 1,261 records · Page 70
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2018

On the geometric dependence of the molecular dipole polarizability in water: A benchmark study of higher-order electron correlation, basis set incompleteness error, core electron effects, and zero-point vibrational contributions

In this work, we investigate how geometric changes influence the static dipole polarizability ($α$) of a water molecule by explicitly computing the corresponding dipole polarizability surface (DPS) across 3125 total (1625 symmetry-unique) geometries using linear response coupled cluster theory including single, double, and triple excitations (LR-CCSDT) and the doubly augmented triple-$ζ$ basis set (d-aug-cc-pVTZ). Analytical formulae based on power series expansions of this $ab initio$ surface are generated using linear least-squares analysis and provide highly accurate estimates of this quantity as a function of molecular geometry (i.e., bond and angle variations) in a computationally tractable manner. An additional database, which consists of 25 representative molecular geometries and incorporates a more thorough treatment of both basis sets and core electron effects, is provided as a current benchmark for this quantity and the corresponding leading-order $C_6$ dispersion coefficient. This database has been utilized to assess the importance of these effects as well as the relative accuracy that can be obtained using several quantum chemical methods and a library of density functional approximations. In addition to high-level electron correlation methods (like CCSD) and our analytical least-squares formulae, we find that the SCAN0, PBE0, MN15, and B97-2 hybrid functionals yield the most accurate descriptions of the molecular polarizability tensor in H 2 O. Using first-order perturbation theory, we compute the zero-point vibrational correction to $α$ at the CCSDT/d-aug-cc-pVTZ level and find that this correction contributes approximately 3% to the isotropic ($α$ iso ) and nearly 50% to the anisotropic ($α$ aniso ) polarizability values. In doing so, we find that $α$ iso = 9.8307 bohr 3 , which is in excellent agreement with the experimental value of 9.83 ± 0.02 bohr 3 provided by Russell and Spackman. The DPS reported herein provides a benchmark-quality quantum mechanical estimate of this fundamental quantity of interest and should find extensive use in the development (and assessment) of next-generation force fields and machine-learning based approaches for modeling water in complex condensed-phase environments.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Likelihood Methods for CMB Experiments

A great deal of experimental effort is currently being devoted to the precise measurements of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) sky in temperature and polarization. Satellites, balloon-borne, and ground-based experiments scrutinize the CMB sky at multiple scales, and therefore enable to investigate not only the evolution of the early Universe, but also its late-time physics with unprecedented accuracy. The pipeline leading from time ordered data as collected by the instrument to the final product is highly structured. Moreover, it has also to provide accurate estimates of statistical and systematic uncertainties connected to the specific experiment. In this paper, we review likelihood approaches targeted to the analysis of the CMB signal at different scales, and to the estimation of key cosmological parameters. We consider methods that analyze the data in the spatial (i.e., pixel-based) or harmonic domain. We highlight the most relevant aspects of each approach and compare their performance.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Simulating the dust content of galaxies: successes and failures

We present full-volume cosmological simulations, using the moving-mesh code AREPO to study the coevolution of dust and galaxies. We extend the dust model in AREPO to include thermal sputtering of grains and investigate the evolution of the dust mass function, the cosmic distribution of dust beyond the interstellar medium and the dependence of dust-to-stellar mass ratio on galactic properties. The simulated dust mass function is well described by a Schechter fit and lies closest to observations at z = 0. The radial scaling of projected dust surface density out to distances of 10 Mpc around galaxies with magnitudes 17 < i < 21 is similar to that seen in Sloan Digital Sky Survey data, albeit with a lower normalization. At z = 0, the predicted dust density of Ωdust ≈ 1.3 × 10 -6 lies in the range of Ωdust values seen in low-redshift observations. We find that the dust-to-stellar mass ratio anticorrelates with stellar mass for galaxies living along the star formation main sequence. Moreover, we estimate the 850 μm number density functions for simulated galaxies and analyse the relation between dust-to-stellar flux and mass ratios at z = 0. At high redshift, our model fails to produce enough dust-rich galaxies, and this tension is not alleviated by adopting a top-heavy initial mass function. We do not capture a decline in Ωdust from z = 2 to 0, which suggests that dust production mechanisms more strongly dependent on star formation may help to produce the observed number of dusty galaxies near the peak of cosmic star formation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2018

The use of atmospheric prediction models to invert infrasound for linear-equivalent time domain moment tensors: Source Physics Experiment, Phase 1

We invert far field infrasound data for the equivalent seismo-acoustic time domain moment tensor to assess the effects of variable atmospheric models as well as to quantify the relative contributions of two presumed source phenomena. The infrasound data was produced by a series of underground chemical explosions that were conducted during the Source Physics Experiment, (SPE) which was originally designed to study explosion-generated seismo-acoustic signal phenomena. The goal of the work presented herein is two-fold: the first goal is to investigate the sensitivity of the estimated time domain moment tensors to variability of the estimated atmospheric model. The second goal is to determine the relative contribution of two possible source mechanisms to the observed infrasonic wave field. Rather than using actual atmospheric observations to estimate the necessary atmospheric Green's functions, we build a series of atmospheric models that rely on publicly available, regional atmospheric observations and the assumption that the acoustic energy results from a linear combination of an underground isotropic explosion and surface spall. The atmospheric observations are summarized and interpolated onto a 3D grid to produce a model of sound speed at the time of the experiment. For each of four SPE acoustic datasets that we invert, we produced a suite of three atmospheric models, based on ten years of regional meteorological observations: an average model, which averages the atmospheric conditions for ten years prior to each SPE event, as well as two extrema models. We find that the inversion yields relatively repeatable results for the estimated spall source. Conversely, the estimated isotropic explosion source is highly variable. This suggests that the majority of the observed acoustic energy is produced by the spall source and/or our modeling of the elastic energy propagation, and it's subsequent conversion to acoustic energy via linear elastic-to-acoustic coupling at the free surface, is too simplistic.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1995

Methodologies to determine forces on bones and muscles of body segments during exercise, employing compact sensors suitable for use in crowded space vehicles

Work under this grant was carried out by the author and by a graduate research assistant. An instrumented bicycle ergometer was implemented focusing on the stated objective: to estimate the forces exerted by each muscle of the feet, calf, and thigh of an individual while bicycling. The sensors used were light and compact. These were probes to measure muscle EMG activity, miniature accelerometers, miniature load sensors, and small encoders to measure angular positions of the pedal. A methodology was developed and implemented to completely describe the kinematics of the limbs using data from the sensors. This work has been published as a Master's Thesis by the Graduate student supported by the grant. The instrumented ergometer along with the sensors and instrumentation were tested during a KC-135 Zero-Gravity flight in July, 1994. A complete description of the system and the tests performed have been published as a report submitted to NASA Johnson Space Center. The data collected during the KC-135 flight is currently being processed so that a kinematic description of the bicycling experiment will be soon determined. A methodology to estimate the muscle forces has been formulated based on previous work. The methodology involves the use of optimization concepts so that the individual muscle forces that represent variables in dynamic equations of motion may be estimated. Optimization of a criteria (goal) function such as minimization of energy will be used along with constraint equations defined by rigid body equations of motion. Use of optimization principles is necessary, because the equations of motion alone constitute an indeterminate system of equations with respect to the large amount of muscle forces which constitute the variables in these equations. The number of variables is reduced somewhat by using forces measured by the load cells installed on the pedal. These load cells measure pressure and shear forces on the foot. The author and his collaborators at NASA and at the University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, are continuing the work of reducing the experimental data from the KC-135 flight, and the implementation of the optimization methods to estimate muscle forces. As soon as results from these efforts are available, they will be published in reputable journals. Results of this work will impact studies addressing bone density loss and development of countermeasures to minimize bone loss in zero gravity conditions. By analyzing muscle forces on Earth and in Space during exercise, scientists could eventually formulate new exercises and machines to help maintain bone density. On Earth, this work will impact studies concerning arthritis, and will provide the means to study possible exercise countermeasures to minimize arthritis problems.

Figueroa, Fernando↗
DOE OSTI2021

Estimation of micro-Hall-Petch coefficients for prismatic slip system in Mg-4Al as a function of grain boundary parameters

Grain size strengthening, referred to as the Hall-Petch effect, is a common strategy to improve the yield strength of magnesium (Mg) alloys. Several experimental studies have reported that the Hall-Petch slope strongly depends on the texture of the alloy. This effect arises from altering grain boundaries (GBs) resistance to different slip systems to transfer across adjacent grains. The grain boundary barrier strength of certain grain boundaries to basal slip, referred to as basal micro-Hall-Petch, was investigated in the previous work. Here in this study, the micro-Hall-Petch coefficient values for the prismatic slip $(k^{prismatic}_{μ})$ in Mg-4Al and their correlation with the grain boundary parameters were investigated. An experimental method was developed to initiate the prismatic slip band at low-stress levels. High-resolution electron backscatter diffraction (HR-EBSD) was used to measure the residual stress tensor, from which the resolved shear stress ahead of blocked prismatic slip bands was computed for seven different grain boundaries. $(k^{prismatic}_{μ})$ values for each individual GB were calculated by coupling the stress profile information with a continuum dislocation pile-up model. The $(k^{prismatic}_{μ})$ values vary from 0.138 MPa.m 1/2 to 0.685 MPa. m 1/2 which are almost three times larger than the calculated values for the basal micro-Hall-Petch. The $(k^{prismatic}_{μ})$ values were correlated with the GB parameters, and a functional relationship depending on the two most effective angles, the angle between the traces of the slip planes on the GB plane ($\phi$) and the angle between incoming and outgoing slip directions (κ), was proposed to estimate the Hall-Petch barrier for prismatic slip system. The work provides coefficients that can be supplied as input to crystal plasticity models to couple the effect of texture and grain size effectively.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS2019

Bayesian Estimation of Earth’s Undiscovered Mineralogical Diversity Using Noninformative Priors

Recently, statistical distributions have been explored to provide estimates of the mineralogical diversity of Earth, and Earth-like planets. In this paper, a Bayesian approach is introduced to estimate Earth’s undiscovered mineralogical diversity. Samples are generated from a posterior distribution of the model parameters using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations such that estimates and inference are directly obtained. It was previously shown that the mineral species frequency distribution conforms to a generalized inverse Gauss–Poisson (GIGP) large number of rare events model. Even though the model fit was good, the population size estimate obtained by using this model was found to be unreasonably low by mineralogists. In this paper, several zero-truncated, mixed Poisson distributions are fitted and compared, where the Poisson-lognormal distribution is found to provide the best fit. Subsequently, the population size estimates obtained by Bayesian methods are compared to the empirical Bayes estimates. Species accumulation curves are constructed and employed to estimate the population size as a function of sampling size. Finally, the relative abundances, and hence the occurrence probabilities of species in a random sample, are calculated numerically for all mineral species in Earth’s crust using the Poisson-lognormal distribution. These calculations are connected and compared to the calculations obtained in a previous paper using the GIGP model for which mineralogical criteria of an Earth-like planet were given.

Bayesian statistics↗
NASA NTRS1984

A dynamic model for plant growth: validation study under changing temperatures

A dynamic simulation model to describe vegetative growth of plants, for which some functions and parameter values have been estimated previously by optimization search techniques and numerical experimentation based on data from constant temperature experiments, is validated under conditions of changing temperatures. To test the predictive capacity of the model, dry matter accumulation in the leaves, stems, and roots of tobacco plants (Nicotiana tabacum L.) was measured at 2- or 3-day intervals during a 5-week period when temperatures in controlled-environment rooms were programmed for changes at weekly and daily intervals and in ascending or descending sequences within a range of 14 to 34 degrees C. Simulations of dry matter accumulation and distribution were carried out using the programmed changes for experimental temperatures and compared with the measured values. The agreement between measured and predicted values was close and indicates that the temperature-dependent functional forms derived from constant-temperature experiments are adequate for modelling plant growth responses to conditions of changing temperatures with switching intervals as short as 1 day.

NASA Discipline Number 60-40↗
NASA NTRS1982

Radar scattering laws for the lunar surface

Bistatic radar observations of quasi-specular scatter from the lunar surface at 13 and 116 cm wavelengths have been expressed in terms of probability densities of the underlying surface slope distributions. These show best agreement with a Hagfors scattering function, although other forms having predominantly Gaussian or exponential characteristics also occur. Estimates of root mean square (rms) surface slope derived from these function range from 4 deg rms in maria to at least 8 deg rms in highlands. These are values appropriate to 25 m horizontal scales and represent averages over tens of square kilometers of surface area. The effective scattering roughness varies with wavelength, most strongly in maria, where its behavior is consistent with that expected from an immature, i.e., unsaturated cratered surface. There is very little variation in scattering roughness with wavelength in highlands area.

Simpson, R. A.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Detection of the Pairwise Kinematic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich Effect with BOSS DR11 and the Atacama Cosmology Telescope

We present a new measurement of the kinematic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effect using data from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) and the Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (BOSS). Using 600 square degrees of overlapping sky area, we evaluate the mean pairwise baryon momentum associated with the positions of 50,000 bright galaxies in the BOSS DR11 Large Scale Structure catalog. A non-zero signal arises from the large-scale motions of halos containing the sample galaxies. The data fits an analytical signal model well, with the optical depth to microwave photon scattering as a free parameter determining the overall signal amplitude. We estimate the covariance matrix of the mean pairwise momentum as a function of galaxy separation, using microwave sky simulations, jackknife evaluation, and bootstrap estimates. The most conservative simulation-based errors give signal-to-noise estimates between 3.6 and 4.1 for varying galaxy luminosity cuts. We discuss how the other error determinations can lead to higher signal-to-noise values, and consider the impact of several possible systematic errors. Estimates of the optical depth from the average thermal Sunyaev-Zel'dovich signal at the sample galaxy positions are broadly consistent with those obtained from the mean pairwise momentum signal.

De Bernardis, F.↗
DOE OSTI2017

Fixed-node diffusion Monte Carlo description of nitrogen defects in zinc oxide

Using the fixed-node diffusion Monte Carlo (FN-DMC) method, we evaluate the formation energies and charge transition levels of substitutional nitrogen defects in the wide-band-gap semiconductor zinc oxide. The use of a direct-solution, many-body approach inherently secures a good description of electron-electron interactions, achieving high accuracy without adjustable parameters. According to FN-DMC nitrogen is a deep acceptor with a charge transition level 1.0(3) eV above the valence-band maximum when 72-atom supercells are used. This result falls on the lower end of typically reported hybrid density functional results for the same size supercells, which range from 1.0 to 1.8 eV. Further, residual finite-size effects due to charged defect image interactions in the 72-atom supercells are estimated by supercell extrapolation within hybrid density functional theory. When the finite-size correction is included, we obtain a deep acceptor at 1.6(3) eV. This result is in good agreement with recent experimental measurements. We also analyze the local compressibility of charge according to FN-DMC and common density functionals and find that the use of hybrid functionals obtains compressibilities in better agreement with the many-body theory. Our work illustrates the application of the FN-DMC method to a challenging point defect problem, demonstrating that uncertainties and approximations can be well controlled.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2025

flat10MIP: an emissions-driven experiment to diagnose the climate response to positive, zero and negative CO2 emissions

Abstract. The proportionality between global mean temperature and cumulative emissions of CO2 predicted in Earth system models (ESMs) is the foundation of carbon budgeting frameworks. Deviations from this behavior could impact estimates of required net-zero timings and negative emissions requirements to meet the Paris Agreement climate targets. However, existing ESM diagnostic experiments do not allow for direct estimation of these deviations as a function of defined emissions pathways. Here, we perform a set of climate model diagnostic experiments for the assessment of transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions (TCRE), the Zero Emissions Commitment (ZEC), and climate reversibility metrics in an emissions-driven framework. The emissions-driven experiments provide consistent independent variables simplifying simulation, analysis and interpretation, with emissions rates more comparable to recent levels than existing protocols using model-specific compatible emissions from the CMIP DECK 1pctCO2 experiment, where emissions rates tend to increase during the experiment, such that at the time of CO2 doubling in year 70, emissions are much greater than present-day values. A base experiment, “esm-flat10”, has constant emissions of CO2 of 10 GtC per year (near-present-day values), and initial results show that the TCRE estimated in this experiment is about 0.1 K less than that obtained using 1pctCO2. A subset of ESMs exhibit land carbon sinks that saturate during this experiment. A branch experiment, esm-flat10-zec, illustrates that both positive and negative ZEC effects are less pronounced under esm-flat10 than under 1pctCO2 – the magnitude of ZEC50 in ESMs is, on average, reduced by 30 % compared with 1pctCO2 branch experiments. A final experiment, esm-flat10-cdr, assesses climate reversibility under negative emissions, where we find that peak warming may occur before or after net zero and that the asymmetry in temperature at a given level of cumulative emissions between the positive and negative emissions phases is well described by ZEC in most models. Further, we find that existing probabilistic simple climate model (SCM) ensembles tend to overestimate temperature reversibility compared with ESMs, highlighting the need for additional constraints. We propose a set of climate diagnostic indicators to quantify various aspects of climate reversibility. These experiments were suggested as potential candidates in CMIP7 and have since been adopted as “fast track” simulations.

Sanderson, Benjamin M↗
NASA NTRS1980

Evaluation of atmospheric density models and preliminary functional specifications for the Langley Atmospheric Information Retrieval System (LAIRS)

This document presents the results of an extensive survey and comparative evaluation of current atmosphere and wind models for inclusion in the Langley Atmospheric Information Retrieval System (LAIRS). It includes recommended models for use in LAIRS, estimated accuracies for the recommended models, and functional specifications for the development of LAIRS.

Lee, T.↗
DOE OSTI2018

WIPP PA Sensitivity Studies in Support of CRA-2014 Completeness Determination and Compliance Decision - 18209

The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) has been developed by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) for the geologic (deep underground) disposal of transuranic (TRU) waste. Containment of TRU waste at the WIPP is regulated by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The DOE demonstrates compliance with the containment requirements by means of performance assessment (PA) calculations. WIPP PA calculations estimate the probability and consequence of potential radionuclide releases from the repository to the accessible environment for a regulatory period of 10,000 years after facility closure. Since TRU waste was first received at the WIPP in 1999, compliance recertification applications (CRAs) have been required by the EPA on five-year cycle. The latest CRA (CRA-2014) was submitted by the DOE to the EPA in 2014. As part of the application, a formal set of PA calculations (CRA-2014 PA) was performed and results were documented in detail. The CRA-2014 PA incorporated several parameter updates based on new data, as well as the implementation of a different model for panel closures, barriers planned for the opening of each waste panel. The results presented as part of the CRA-2014 showed via the required complementary cumulative distribution function (CCDF) release curves that the estimated releases were within compliance limits. As part of their process for reviewing the completeness of the CRA-2014 [1], the EPA formally requested that the DOE perform sensitivity studies based on EPA-requested changes to model parameters. The DOE performed and documented the results of three sensitivity studies described below: CRA14-SEN2 [2], CRA14-SEN3 [3], and CRA14-SEN4 [4]. In each case, the new analysis results were compared to CRA- 2014 PA (CRA14) results to determine the impact of the EPA-requested changes. CRA14-SEN2: the application of EPA-requested modified parameters in the operations and experimental (non-waste) areas of the repository to simulate an accelerated (instantaneous) creep closure, the inclusion of capillary pressure effects on relative permeability, and an increase in initial/residual brine saturation and residual gas saturation. The modifications to the repository model resulted in increased pressures and decreased brine saturations in waste areas and increased pressures and brine saturations in the operations and experimental areas. However, the overall effects on total high-probability mean releases from the repository were entirely insignificant. It was concluded that the modeling assumptions associated with the operations and experimental areas of the repository have an insignificant effect on the prediction of total releases from the repository and/or adequacy of the current (CRA14) model to demonstrate compliance with the regulatory limits. CRA14-SEN3: the application of EPA-requested modified parameters in the panel closure areas and operations and experimental (non-waste) areas of the repository to simulate an accelerated (instantaneous) creep closure, the inclusion of capillary pressure effects on relative permeability, and an increase in initial/residual brine saturation and residual gas saturation. The modifications to the repository model predominantly result in increased pressures and decreased brine saturations in waste areas, increased pressures and brine saturations in the operations and experimental areas, and decreased brine and gas flows across all panel closures. The pressure increases in repository waste regions yielded slightly decreased brine saturations (on average) in those areas. However, the overall effects on total high-probability mean releases from the repository are entirely insignificant. It was concluded that the modeling assumptions made for this sensitivity study which were associated with the panel closures and north end areas of the repository have only a small effect on the prediction of total releases from the repository and/or adequacy of the current (CRA14) model to demonstrate compliance with the regulatory limits. CRA14-SEN4: the application of several changes to the current WIPP PA model (CRA14), including: parameter changes, use of an updated code, and a revised computational grid for the BRAGFLO code. The modifications to the repository model resulted in increased releases in all primary release mechanisms. The impacts of each EPA-requested change to CRA14 were analyzed with respect to each release mechanism in the CRA14-SEN4 study. Overall, total high-probability predicted mean releases from the repository were increased by about 15%. Total low-probability predicted mean releases were increased by about 107%. It was concluded that the EPA-requested changes to the CRA14 result in increases to the predicted total releases from the repository. However, releases calculated in the CRA14-SEN4 analysis remained below regulatory limits, demonstrating continued compliance of the WIPP. In January 2017, the EPA determined that CRA-2014 was complete and then began a technical evaluation of CRA-2014 to determine whether the WIPP continued to comply with the radiation protection standards for disposal. During their evaluation, the EPA utilized the sensitivity study results to inform their ultimate determination in July 2017 that the WIPP continues to comply with regulatory standards. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2016

The Chandra cosmos legacy survey: clustering of X-ray-selected AGNs at 2.9 ≤ z ≤ 5.5 using photometric redshift probability distribution functions

We present the measurement of the projected and redshift-space two-point correlation function (2pcf) of the new catalog of Chandra COSMOS-Legacy active galactic nucleus (AGN) at 2.9 ≤ z ≤ 5.5 (〈L{sub bol}〉 ∼ 10{sup 46} erg s{sup −1}) using the generalized clustering estimator based on phot-z probability distribution functions in addition to any available spec-z. We model the projected 2pcf, estimated using π {sub max} = 200 h{sup −1} Mpc with the two-halo term and we derive a bias at z ∼ 3.4 equal to b = 6.6{sub −0.55}{sup +0.60}, which corresponds to a typical mass of the hosting halos of log M {sub h} = 12.83{sub −0.11}{sup +0.12} h{sup −1} M {sub ⊙}. A similar bias is derived using the redshift-space 2pcf, modeled including the typical phot-z error σ {sub z} = 0.052 of our sample at z ≥ 2.9. Once we integrate the projected 2pcf up to π {sub max} = 200 h{sup −1} Mpc, the bias of XMM and Chandra COSMOS at z = 2.8 used in Allevato et al. is consistent with our results at higher redshifts. The results suggest only a slight increase of the bias factor of COSMOS AGNs at z ≳ 3 with the typical hosting halo mass of moderate-luminosity AGNs almost constant with redshift and equal to log M {sub h} = 12.92{sub −0.18}{sup +0.13} at z = 2.8 and log M {sub h} = 12.83{sub −0.11}{sup +0.12} at z ∼ 3.4, respectively. The observed redshift evolution of the bias of COSMOS AGNs implies that moderate-luminosity AGNs still inhabit group-sized halos at z ≳ 3, but slightly less massive than observed in different independent studies using X-ray AGNs at z ≤ 2.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2018

The Relative Importance of Assumed Infrasound Source Terms and Effects of Atmospheric Models on the Linear Inversion of Infrasound Time Series at the Source Physics Experiment

We invert far-field infrasound data for the equivalent seismoacoustic time-domain moment tensor to assess the effects of variable atmospheric models and source phenomena. The infrasound data were produced by a series of underground chemical explosions that were conducted during the Source Physics Experiment (SPE), which was originally designed to study seismoacoustic signal phenomena. The first goal is to investigate the sensitivity of the inversion to the variability of the estimated atmospheric model. The second goal is to determine the relative contribution of two presumed source mechanisms to the observed infrasonic wavefield. Rather than using actual atmospheric observations to estimate the necessary atmospheric Green’s functions, we build a series of atmospheric models that rely on publicly available, regional-scale atmospheric observations. The atmospheric observations are summarized and interpolated onto a 3D grid to produce a model of sound speed at the time of the experiment. For each of four SPE acoustic datasets that we invert, we produced a suite of three atmospheric models for each chemical explosion event, based on 10 yrs of meteorological data: an average model, which averages the atmospheric conditions for 10 yrs prior to each SPE event, as well as two extrema models. To parameterize the inversion, we assume that the source of infrasonic energy results from the linear combination of explosion-induced surface spall and linear seismic-to-elastic mode conversion at the Earth’s free surface. We find that the inversion yields relatively repeatable results for the estimated spall source. Conversely, the estimated isotropic explosion source is highly variable. This suggests that 1) the majority of the observed acoustic energy is produced by the spall and/or 2) our modeling of the elastic energy, and the subsequent conversion to acoustic energy, is too simplistic.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of probabilistic photometric redshift estimation approaches for The Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST)

Many scientific investigations of photometric galaxy surveys require redshift estimates, whose uncertainty properties are best encapsulated by photometric redshift (photo-z) posterior probability density functions (PDFs). A plethora of photo-z PDF estimation methodologies abound, producing discrepant results with no consensus on a preferred approach. We present the results of a comprehensive experiment comparing twelve photo-z algorithms applied to mock data produced forLarge Synoptic Survey Telescope The Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (lsst) Dark Energy Science Collaboration (desc). By supplying perfect prior information, in the form of the complete template library and a representative training set as inputs to each code, we demonstrate the impact of the assumptions underlying each technique on the output photo-z PDFs. In the absence of a notion of true, unbiased photo-z PDFs, we evaluate and interpret multiple metrics of the ensemble properties of the derived photo-z PDFs as well as traditional reductions to photo-z point estimates. Additionally, we report systematic biases and overall over/under-breadth of the photo-z PDFs of many popular codes, which may indicate avenues for improvement in the algorithms or implementations. Furthermore, we raise attention to the limitations of established metrics for assessing photo-z PDF accuracy; though we identify the conditional density estimate (CDE) loss as a promising metric of photo-z PDF performance in the case where true redshifts are available but true photo-z PDFs are not, we emphasize the need for science-specific performance metrics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗