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DOE OSTI2017

Impacts of air pollutants from fire and non-fire emissions on the regional air quality in Southeast Asia

Severe haze events in Southeast Asia caused by particulate pollution have become more intense and frequent in recent years, degrading air quality, threatening human health, and interrupting economic and societal activities. Widespread biomass burning activities are a major source of severe haze events in Southeast Asia. On the other hand, particulate pollutants from human activities other than biomass burning also play an important role in degrading air quality in Southeast Asia. In this study, numerical simulations have been conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with a chemistry component (WRF-Chem) to quantitatively examine the contributions of aerosols emitted from fire (i.e., biomass burning) versus non-fire (including fossil fuel combustion, road and industrial dust, land use, and land change, etc.) sources to the degradation of air quality and visibility over Southeast Asia. These simulations cover a time period from 2002 to 2008 and were respectively driven by emissions from: (a) fossil fuel burning only, (b) biomass burning only, and (c) both fossil fuel and biomass burning. Across ASEAN 50 cities, these model results reveal that 39 % of observed low visibility days can be explained by either fossil fuel burning or biomass burning emissions alone, a further 20 % by fossil fuel burning alone, a further 8 % by biomass burning alone, and a further 5 % by a combination of fossil fuel burning and biomass burning. The remaining 28 % of observed low visibility days remain unexplained, likely due to emissions sources that have not been accounted for. Further analysis of 24-hr PM 2.5 Air Quality Index (AQI) indicates that comparing to the simulated result of the case with stand-alone non-fire emissions, the case with coexisting fire and non-fire PM 2.5 can substantially increase the chance of AQI being in the moderate or unhealthy pollution level from 23 % to 34 %. The premature mortality among major Southeast Asian cities due to degradation of air quality by particulate pollutants is estimated to increase from ~ 4110 per year in 2002 to ~ 6540 per year in 2008. In addition, we demonstrate the importance of certain missing non-fire anthropogenic aerosol sources including anthropogenic fugitive and industrial dusts in causing urban air quality degradation. An exploratory experiment of using machine learning algorithms to forecasting the occurrence of haze events in Singapore is also demonstrated in this study. All these results suggest that besides minimizing biomass burning activities, an effective air pollution mitigation policy for Southeast Asia needs to consider controlling emissions from non-fire anthropogenic sources.

Lee, Hsiang-He (ORCID:0000000251407324)↗

DOE OSTI2024

A globally sampled high-resolution hand-labeled validation dataset for evaluating surface water extent maps

Effective monitoring of global water resources is increasingly critical due to climate change and population growth. Advancements in remote sensing technology, specifically in spatial, spectral, and temporal resolutions, are revolutionizing water resource monitoring, leading to more frequent and high-quality surface water extent maps using various techniques such as traditional image processing and machine learning algorithms. However, satellite imagery datasets contain trade-offs that result in inconsistencies in performance, such as disparities in measurement principles between optical (e.g., Sentinel-2) and radar (e.g., Sentinel-1) sensors and differences in spatial and spectral resolutions among optical sensors. Therefore, developing accurate and robust surface water mapping solutions requires independent validations from multiple datasets to identify potential biases within the imagery and algorithms. However, high-quality validation datasets are expensive to build, and few contain information on water resources. For this purpose, we introduce a globally sampled, high-spatial-resolution dataset labeled using 3 m PlanetScope imagery. Our surface water extent dataset comprises 100 images, each with a size of 1024×1024 pixels, which were sampled using a stratified random sampling strategy covering all 14 biomes. We highlighted urban and rural regions, lakes, and rivers, including braided rivers and coastal regions. We evaluated two surface water extent mapping methods using our dataset – Dynamic World, based on Sentinel-2, and the NASA IMPACT model, based on Sentinel-1. Dynamic World achieved a mean intersection over union (IoU) of 72.16 % and F1 score of 79.70 %, while the NASA IMPACT model had a mean IoU of 57.61 % and F1 score of 65.79 %. Performance varied substantially across biomes, highlighting the importance of evaluating models on diverse landscapes to assess their generalizability and robustness. Our dataset can be used to analyze satellite products and methods, providing insights into their advantages and drawbacks. Our dataset offers a unique tool for analyzing satellite products, aiding the development of more accurate and robust surface water monitoring solutions. The dataset can be accessed via https://doi.org/10.25739/03nt-4f29.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

Upscaling instantaneous to daily evapotranspiration using modelled daily shortwave radiation for remote sensing applications: An artificial neural network approach

Upscaling instantaneous evapotranspiration retrieved at any specific time-of-day (ET i ) to daily evapotranspiration (ET d ) is a key challenge in mapping regional ET using polar orbiting sensors. Various studies have unanimously cited the shortwave incoming radiation ( R S ) to be the most robust reference variable explaining the ratio between ET d and ET i . This study aims to contribute in ET i upscaling for global studies using the ratio between daily and instantaneous incoming shortwave radiation ( R Sd / R Si ) as a factor for converting ET i to ET d . This paper proposes an artificial neural network (ANN) machine-learning algorithm first to predict R Sd from R Si followed by using the R Sd / R Si ratio to convert ET i to ET d across different terrestrial ecosystems. Using R Si and R Sd observations from multiple sub-networks of the FLUXNET database spread across different climates and biomes (to represent inputs that would typically be obtainable from remote sensors during the overpass time) in conjunction with some astronomical variables (e.g. solar zenith angle, day length, exoatmospheric shortwave radiation), we developed the ANN model for reproducing R Sd and further used it to upscale ET i to ET d . The efficiency of the ANN is evaluated for different morning and afternoon times of day, under varying sky conditions, and also at different geographic locations. R S -based upscaled ET d produced a significant linear relation ( R 2 = 0.65 to 0.69), low bias (-0.31 to -0.56 MJ m -2 d -1 ; approx. 4 %), and good agreement (RMSE 1.55 to 1.86 MJ m -2 d -1 ; approx. 10 %) with the observed ET d , although a systematic overestimation of ET d was also noted under persistent cloudy sky conditions. Inclusion of soil moisture and rainfall information in ANN training reduced the systematic overestimation tendency in predominantly overcast days. An intercomparison with existing upscaling method at daily, 8-day, monthly, and yearly temporal resolution revealed a robust performance of the ANN-driven R S -based ET i upscaling method and was found to produce lowest RMSE under cloudy conditions. Sensitivity analysis revealed variable sensitivity of the method to biome selection and high ET d prediction errors in forest ecosystems are primarily associated with greater rainfall and cloudiness. As a result, the overall methodology appears to be promising and has substantial potential for upscaling ET i to ET d for field and regional-scale evapotranspiration mapping studies using polar orbiting satellites.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

A deep learning hybrid predictive modeling (HPM) approach for estimating evapotranspiration and ecosystem respiration

Climate change is reshaping vulnerable ecosystems, leading to uncertain effects on ecosystem dynamics, including evapotranspiration (ET) and ecosystem respiration (R eco ). However, accurate estimation of ET and R eco still remains challenging at sparsely monitored watersheds, where data and field instrumentation are limited. In this study, we developed a hybrid predictive modeling approach (HPM) that integrates eddy covariance measurements, physically based model simulation results, meteorological forcings, and remote-sensing datasets to estimate ET and R eco in high space–time resolution. HPM relies on a deep learning algorithm and long short-term memory (LSTM) and requires only air temperature, precipitation, radiation, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and soil temperature (when available) as input variables. We tested and validated HPM estimation results in different climate regions and developed four use cases to demonstrate the applicability and variability of HPM at various FLUXNET sites and Rocky Mountain SNOTEL sites in Western North America. To test the limitations and performance of the HPM approach in mountainous watersheds, an expanded use case focused on the East River Watershed, Colorado, USA. The results indicate HPM is capable of identifying complicated interactions among meteorological forcings, ET, and R eco variables, as well as providing reliable estimation of ET and R eco across relevant spatiotemporal scales, even in challenging mountainous systems. The study documents that HPM increases our capability to estimate ET and R eco and enhances process understanding at sparsely monitored watersheds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Simulated meteorological impacts of offshore wind turbines and sensitivity to the amount of added turbulence kinetic energy

Offshore wind energy projects are currently in development off the east coast of the United States and may influence the local meteorology of the region. Wind power production and other commercial uses in this area are related to atmospheric conditions, and so it is important to understand how future wind plants may change the local meteorology. In the absence of measurements of potential wind plant impacts on meteorology, simulations offer the next-best possible insight into wake effects on boundary layer height, temperature, fluxes, and wind speeds. However, simulation tools that capture these effects offer multiple options for representing the amount of turbine-added turbulence that may impact assessments of micrometeorological effects. To explore this sensitivity, we compare 1 year of simulations from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with and without wind plants incorporated, focusing on the lease area south of Massachusetts and Rhode Island. The simulations with wind plants are repeated to include both the maximum and minimum amounts of added turbulence to provide bounds on the potential impacts. We assess changes in wind speeds, 2 m temperature, surface heat flux, turbulence kinetic energy (TKE), and boundary layer height during different stability classifications and ambient wind speeds over the entire year and compare results for the degree of added turbulence in the wind plant simulations. Because the wake behavior may be a function of boundary layer stability, in this paper, we also present a machine learning algorithm to quantify the area and distance of the wake generated by the wind plant. This analysis enables us to identify the relationship between wake extent and boundary layer height. We find that hub-height wind speed is reduced within and downwind of the wind plant, with the strongest impacts occurring during stable conditions and faster wind speeds in region 3 of the turbine power curve, although impacts lessen as wind speeds increase past 15 m s−1. In contrast, wind speeds near the surface decrease when no turbine-added turbulence is included but can increase for stably stratified conditions when 100 % of possible TKE is included in the simulations. TKE increases at hub height in the simulations with added TKE for all stability classes, suggesting that atmospheric stability does not immediately modify the TKE generated by turbines. Negligible changes in hub-height TKE manifest in the simulations without the added TKE. At the surface, TKE increases in the simulations with maximum added turbulence only for unstable conditions. In the no-added-turbulence simulations, surface TKE decreases slightly in neutral and unstable simulations. Differences in 2 m temperatures and surface heat fluxes are small but vary considerably with atmospheric stability and the amount of added TKE. Boundary layer heights increase within the wind plant when turbine-added turbulence is included and decrease slightly downwind during stable conditions. In contrast, with no added turbulence, the boundary layer height is in general reduced in stable conditions with wind speeds less than 15 m s −1 and slightly increased in neutral conditions. Finally, shallower upwind boundary layer heights tend to correlate with larger wake areas and distances, though other factors likely also play a role in determining the extent of the wind plant wake. These simulation-based results provide a bound for micrometeorological impacts of wind plant wakes: simulations that couple the atmosphere to the ocean may reduce these impacts, and we await observational verification.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Linking large-scale weather patterns to observed and modeled turbine hub-height winds offshore of the US West Coast

The US West Coast holds great potential for wind power generation, although its potential varies due to the complex coastal climate. Characterizing and modeling turbine hub-height winds under different weather conditions are vital for wind resource assessment and management. This study uses a two-stage machine learning algorithm to identify five large-scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs): post-trough, post-ridge, pre-ridge, pre-trough, and California high. The LSMPs are linked to offshore wind patterns, specifically at lidar buoy locations within lease areas for future wind farm development off Humboldt and Morro Bay. While each LSMP is associated with characteristic large-scale atmospheric conditions and corresponding differences in wind direction, diurnal variation, and jet features at the two lidar sites, substantial variability in wind speeds can still occur within each LSMP. Wind speeds at Humboldt increase during the post-trough, pre-ridge, and California-high LSMPs and decrease during the remaining LSMPs. Morro Bay has smaller responses in mean speeds, showing increased wind speed during the post-trough and California-high LSMPs. Besides the LSMPs, local factors, including the land–sea thermal contrast and topography, also modify mean winds and diurnal variation. The High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model analysis does a good job of capturing the mean and variation at Humboldt but produces large biases at Morro Bay, particularly during the pre-ridge and California-high LSMPs. The findings are anticipated to guide the selection of cases for studying the influence of specific large-scale and local factors on California offshore winds and to contribute to refining numerical weather prediction models, thereby enhancing the efficiency and reliability of offshore wind energy production.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Tensor Extraction of Latent Features (TELF)

Tensor ELF is a user-friendly parallel tensor decomposition Python toolbox that includes a suite of machine learning algorithms for CPU and GPU architectures for the analysis of sparse and dense data including utility tools for pre-processing and post-processing.

Eren, Maksim↗

DOE OSTI2019

HyperSpace

Machine learning (ML) models often contain numerous hyperparameters, free parameters that must be set before the models can be trained. As the number of model hyperparameters increases, their optimization becomes significantly more challenging as we face a combinatorial increase in potential model configurations. Similarly, there is an increased chance that our models’ hyperparameters interact in complex ways. HyperSpace allows a user to optimize complex machine learning algorithms based on their hyperparameters. HyperSpace works by parallelizing parameter search spaces, running Bayesian model based optimization (SMBO) over each of these spaces in parallel. It was designed to be as minimally invasive as possible such that very little change to existing code will be needed to get a user started.

Ramanathan, Arvind↗

DOE OSTI2024

Electrical Resistivity Tomography based monitoring of stress perturbations to optimize placement of high-precision strain meters

The Center for Understanding Subsurface Signals and Permeability is a new U.S. Department of Energy Earthshot Center focused on understanding and predicting the long-term evolution of permeability in enhanced geothermal systems. The center will use a highly instrumented testbed within the Sanford Underground Research Facility to conduct field scale experiments that elucidate and test capabilities to simulate geochemical-geomechanical interactions and permeability evolution. Here we demonstrate initial developments using previously collected electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) monitoring data with high-performance multi-physics modelling advancements to inform the optimal location of two new monitoring boreholes. Specifically, ERT monitoring data collected during shear stimulation testing shows marked responses to changes in stress during borehole pressurization. We demonstrate how the same response is being simulated, ultimately to train a machine-learning algorithm to estimate rock properties and enable enhanced prediction of stress and strain responses anticipated during future testing campaigns.

Stress, EGS, CUSSP, 3D Electrical Imaging↗

DOE OSTI2019

An application of survival analysis to disruption prediction via Random Forests

One of the most pressing challenges facing the fusion community is adequately mitigating or, even better, avoiding disruptions of tokamak plasmas. However, before this can be done, disruptions must first be predicted with sufficient warning time to actuate a response. The established field of survival analysis provides a convenient statistical framework for time-to-event (i.e. time-to-disruption) studies. This paper demonstrates the integration of an existing disruption prediction machine learning algorithm with the Kaplan-Meier estimator of survival probability. Specifically discussed are the implied warning times from binary classification of disruption databases and the interpretation of output signals from Random Forest algorithms trained and tested on these databases. This survival analysis approach is applied to both smooth and noisy test data to highlight important features of the survival and hazard functions. In addition, this method is applied to three Alcator C-Mod plasma discharges and compared to a threshold-based scheme for triggering alarms. In one case, both techniques successfully predict the disruption; although, in another, neither warns of the impending disruption with enough time to mitigate. For the final discharge, the survival analysis approach could avoid the false alarm triggered by the threshold method. Limitations of this analysis and opportunities for future work are also presented.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

NASA NTRS1984

Knowledge Based Engineering for Spatial Database Management and Use

The use of artificial intelligence techniques that are applicable to Geographic Information Systems (GIS) are examined. Questions involving the performance and modification to the database structure, the definition of spectra in quadtree structures and their use in search heuristics, extension of the knowledge base, and learning algorithm concepts are investigated.

Peuquet, D.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Analysis and synthesis of abstract data types through generalization from examples

The discovery of general patterns of behavior from a set of input/output examples can be a useful technique in the automated analysis and synthesis of software systems. These generalized descriptions of the behavior form a set of assertions which can be used for validation, program synthesis, program testing and run-time monitoring. Describing the behavior is characterized as a learning process in which general patterns can be easily characterized. The learning algorithm must choose a transform function and define a subset of the transform space which is related to equivalence classes of behavior in the original domain. An algorithm for analyzing the behavior of abstract data types is presented and several examples are given. The use of the analysis for purposes of program synthesis is also discussed.

Wild, Christian↗

NASA NTRS1987

Analysis and synthesis of abstract data types through generalization from examples

The discovery of general patterns of behavior from a set of input/output examples can be a useful technique in the automated analysis and synthesis of software systems. These generalized descriptions of the behavior form a set of assertions which can be used for validation, program synthesis, program testing, and run-time monitoring. Describing the behavior is characterized as a learning process in which the set of inputs is mapped into an appropriate transform space such that general patterns can be easily characterized. The learning algorithm must chose a transform function and define a subset of the transform space which is related to equivalence classes of behavior in the original domain. An algorithm for analyzing the behavior of abstract data types is presented and several examples are given. The use of the analysis for purposes of program synthesis is also discussed.

Wild, Christian↗

NASA NTRS1988

Strategies for adding adaptive learning mechanisms to rule-based diagnostic expert systems

Rule-based diagnostic expert systems can be used to perform many of the diagnostic chores necessary in today's complex space systems. These expert systems typically take a set of symptoms as input and produce diagnostic advice as output. The primary objective of such expert systems is to provide accurate and comprehensive advice which can be used to help return the space system in question to nominal operation. The development and maintenance of diagnostic expert systems is time and labor intensive since the services of both knowledge engineer(s) and domain expert(s) are required. The use of adaptive learning mechanisms to increment evaluate and refine rules promises to reduce both time and labor costs associated with such systems. This paper describes the basic adaptive learning mechanisms of strengthening, weakening, generalization, discrimination, and discovery. Next basic strategies are discussed for adding these learning mechanisms to rule-based diagnostic expert systems. These strategies support the incremental evaluation and refinement of rules in the knowledge base by comparing the set of advice given by the expert system (A) with the correct diagnosis (C). Techniques are described for selecting those rules in the in the knowledge base which should participate in adaptive learning. The strategies presented may be used with a wide variety of learning algorithms. Further, these strategies are applicable to a large number of rule-based diagnostic expert systems. They may be used to provide either immediate or deferred updating of the knowledge base.

Stclair, D. C.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Supervised learning of probability distributions by neural networks

Supervised learning algorithms for feedforward neural networks are investigated analytically. The back-propagation algorithm described by Werbos (1974), Parker (1985), and Rumelhart et al. (1986) is generalized by redefining the values of the input and output neurons as probabilities. The synaptic weights are then varied to follow gradients in the logarithm of likelihood rather than in the error. This modification is shown to provide a more rigorous theoretical basis for the algorithm and to permit more accurate predictions. A typical application involving a medical-diagnosis expert system is discussed.

Baum, Eric B.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Computational neural learning formalisms for manipulator inverse kinematics

An efficient, adaptive neural learning paradigm for addressing the inverse kinematics of redundant manipulators is presented. The proposed methodology exploits the infinite local stability of terminal attractors - a new class of mathematical constructs which provide unique information processing capabilities to artificial neural systems. For robotic applications, synaptic elements of such networks can rapidly acquire the kinematic invariances embedded within the presented samples. Subsequently, joint-space configurations, required to follow arbitrary end-effector trajectories, can readily be computed. In a significant departure from prior neuromorphic learning algorithms, this methodology provides mechanisms for incorporating an in-training skew to handle kinematics and environmental constraints.

Gulati, Sandeep↗

NASA NTRS1989

The least constraint principle for learning in neurodynamics

An adaptive neural network for auto-associative memories operating in continuous time is considered. A new learning algorithm for the weight matrix defined by explicit locations of desirable equilibrium points is introduced. The approach is based upon the minimum 'strength energy' of the weight matrix for each prescribed performance of the neural network.

Zak, Michail↗

NASA NTRS1991

Proceedings of the Second Joint Technology Workshop on Neural Networks and Fuzzy Logic, volume 2

Documented here are papers presented at the Neural Networks and Fuzzy Logic Workshop sponsored by NASA and the University of Texas, Houston. Topics addressed included adaptive systems, learning algorithms, network architectures, vision, robotics, neurobiological connections, speech recognition and synthesis, fuzzy set theory and application, control and dynamics processing, space applications, fuzzy logic and neural network computers, approximate reasoning, and multiobject decision making.

Lea, Robert N.↗