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NASA NTRS2007

Weather Research and Forecasting Model Sensitivity Comparisons for Warm Season Convective Initiation

Mesoscale weather conditions can significantly affect the space launch and landing operations at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). During the summer months, land-sea interactions that occur across KSC and CCAFS lead to the formation of a sea breeze, which can then spawn deep convection. These convective processes often last 60 minutes or less and pose a significant challenge to the forecasters at the National Weather Service (NWS) Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG). The main challenge is that a "GO" forecast for thunderstorms and precipitation at the Shuttle Landing Facility is required at the 90 minute deorbit decision for End Of Mission (EOM) and at the 30 minute Return To Launch Site (RTLS) decision. Convective initiation, timing, and mode also present a forecast challenge for the NWS in Melbourne, FL (MLB). The NWS MLB issues such tactical forecast information as Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts (TAF5), Spot Forecasts for fire weather and hazardous materials incident support, and severe/hazardous weather Watches, Warnings, and Advisories. Lastly, these forecasting challenges can also affect the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS), which provides comprehensive weather forecasts for shuttle launch, as well as ground operations, at KSC and CCAFS. The need for accurate mesoscale model forecasts to aid in their decision making is crucial. This study specifically addresses the skill of different model configurations in forecasting warm season convective initiation. Numerous factors influence the development of convection over the Florida peninsula. These factors include sea breezes, river and lake breezes, the prevailing low-level flow, and convergent flow due to convex coastlines that enhance the sea breeze. The interaction of these processes produces the warm season convective patterns seen over the Florida peninsula. However, warm season convection remains one of the most poorly forecast meteorological parameters. To determine which configuration options are best to address this specific forecast concern, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which has two dynamical cores - the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) and the Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM) was employed. In addition to the two dynamical cores, there are also two options for a "hot-start" initialization of the WRF model - the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS; McGinley 1995) and the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS; Brewster 1996). Both LAPS and ADAS are 3- dimensional weather analysis systems that integrate multiple meteorological data sources into one consistent analysis over the user's domain of interest. This allows mesoscale models to benefit from the addition of highresolution data sources. Having a series of initialization options and WRF cores, as well as many options within each core, provides SMG and MLB with considerable flexibility as well as challenges. It is the goal of this study to assess the different configurations available and to determine which configuration will best predict warm season convective initiation.

Watson, Leela R.↗

NASA NTRS1994

The collision of Jupiter and Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9

A simple description of the disruption and deceleration of 100-m- to 5-km-diameter comets striking Jupiter is combined with numerical simulations of the subsequent explosions to predict the fate of Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9. Detailed numerical simulations of the first 3 min of the explosion were performed. Our numerical simulations begin either with hot cylinders with dimensions suggested by the disruption and deceleration model or with an initial wake constructed from a moving line charge. In all cases, extensive plumes of hot gas are expelled from the atmosphere. The models with wakes evolve about twice as fast as the initially confined models. Models of both types generate similar pressure waves into the planet. Temperatures and negative hydrogen ion opacities were computed. For atmospheric entry, light curves were computed. On entry the largest bolides could be very bright, possibly as bright as Jupiter for observers placed to see them, although for kilometer-size impactors the luminosity peak is obscured by clouds. For the fireball, light curves were computed from the numerical simulations. Metals from the vaporized comet provide electrons that dramatically increase the opacity of Jovian air at low temperature. The fireball rises through and above the atmosphere, brightening at first as its surface area increases, but later fading to invisibility as its temperature drops and its opacity plummets.

Zahnle, Kevin↗

NASA NTRS1985

Numerical simulation of convective response to mesoscale forcing

A two-dimensional mesoscale model was used to initialize a two-dimensional cloud model with both mesoscale thermodynamic and dynamic information utilized in the initialization. The Mesoscale-cloud mdoel linkage was used to examine differential convective response due to mesoscale variations for the April 24, 1982 Atmospheric Variability Experiment-Vertical Atmospheric Sounder (AVE-VAS), Case 4. On this day both data analyses and mesoscale model simulations indicated strong variations in thermodynamic and dynamic structure across the panhandle of Texas where a moderately strong convective line formed. Using the cloud model, the current research has shown a preferred area for strong convection to occur due to concomitant mesoscale convergence and mesoscale destabilization of the atmosphere.

Mcnider, R. T.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Coupling Warm Rain With an Eddy Diffusivity/Mass Flux Parameterization: 2. Sensitivities and Comparison to Observations

Abstract This is the second part of the description and validation of the coupling of a warm‐rain microphysics scheme to a stochastic multi‐plume eddy‐diffusivity/mass‐flux parameterization. Part 1 provides the model description and initial validation of the parameterization in a single column model (SCM) against large eddy simulations. This manuscript provides additional comparisons against satellite observations of 500 unique simulation cases, an analysis of model parameter‐based sensitivities in those 500 cases, and an evaluation of the idealized LES case study paradigm for parameterization development. The SCM is forced by a weather reanalysis in the subtropical northeast Pacific region characterized by the stratocumulus‐to‐cumulus cloud transition. 18 scalar outputs are examined to identify the sensitivities to 22 of the model's parameters. The model is highly sensitive to parameters that determine the behavior of convective plumes, which collectively lead to the most sensitivity in 13 of the 18 outputs. Only a few parameters contribute sensitivities that are not highly correlated with those of other parameters. While forcing the model with two canonical field campaign cases results in similar picture of which parameters lead to high sensitivity in model outputs, the sensitivity magnitudes can be overestimated compared to when the model is forced by weather reanalyzes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Computational Modeling of a 3D Printed Recuperator and Subsequent Experimental Loop for Supercritical Carbon Dioxide Cycles

Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), in collaboration with mechanical-thermal energy storage (mTES) provider EarthEn, a US Department of Energy (DOE) Lab-Embedded Entrepreneurship Program (LEEP) recipient at ORNL’s Innovation Crossroads 2023, is utilizing a state-of-the-art patented 3D printing technique to design an additively manufactured (AM) supercritical CO2 (sCO2) recuperator (REC) for EarthEn’s charge/discharge cycle. The AM REC will be printed at ORNL’s Manufacturing Demonstration Facility using Inconel Alloy 718 and tested on a closed-loop, ∼100 kW scale experimental facility that is under construction. The testing will compare the printed design against a commercial-off-the-shelf Printed Circuit Heat Exchanger (PCHE) REC. The design of the sCO2 facility is guided by a Modelica-based system model which is primarily dependent on the open-source TRANSFORM library developed at ORNL and uses the open-source CoolProp library for thermophysical properties of sCO2 via the External Media library. It is envisioned that an iterative process will be followed between the physical loop and the system model wherein the initial experimental data will be used to tune the model, which in turn will be used to guide future loop operation. Simultaneously, the AM REC is being designed using computer-aided design models, and it is also being analyzed for hydraulic and thermomechanical response using commercial computational fluid dynamics software, Simcenter STAR-CCM+, on highperformance computing resources.1

See, Nate [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000178581202)↗

DOE OSTI2026

Permafrost Thaw, Uneven Subsidence and Projected Drying of Ice-wedge Polygon Tundra: Modeling Archive

This dataset is a model archive of the paper Permafrost Thaw, Uneven Subsidence and Projected Drying of Ice-wedge Polygon Tundra (in prep) to support a modeling study investigating how projected increases in Arctic temperature and precipitation will jointly influence hydrologic conditions in ice-rich tundra landscapes. With this dataset, this study is to address the research question: Will Arctic tundra landscapes become wetter or drier with increasing precipitation and temperature in the future when thaw-induced ground subsidence and associated microtopographic evolution are represented? The simulations focus on ice-wedge polygon tundra, a widespread form of ice-rich permafrost terrain that is highly sensitive to thaw-driven landscape change. This dataset contains model input and output data for four study watersheds in Alaska: Anaktuvuk, Utqiagvik (formerly Barrow), Brooks Foothills, and Prudhoe Bay. Simulations were performed using the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS, v1.5), a physics-rich integrated surface–subsurface hydrologic model. For each watershed, ten modeling cases were performed representing two landscape evolution conditions (with subsidence and without subsidence) combined with five climate forcing scenarios derived from Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP5, SSP5 with precipitation trend, SSP2, SSP2 with precipitation trend, and SSP2 with double precipitation trend). Particularly, for each watershed under the forcing SSP2 with precipitation trend, there are two additional simulations considering spatially heterogeneous subsidence distributions: one assumes randomly distributed scaling and the other includes elevation dependent distribution scaling. These simulations span 1980–2099 and include spin-up runs (1980–2009) followed by transient projections (2010–2099). To facilitate reproducibility of simulations, all datasets are organized by watershed. For each study watershed, the dataset contains: (1) Pre-partitioned mesh files for 32-core modeling (.par.32.XX), located in EACH_WATERSHED/mesh/basin; and also a non-partitioned mesh file (.exo) located in EACH_WATERSHED/mesh; (2) Climate forcings corresponding to the five SSP scenarios (.h5), located in EACH_WATERSHED/data; (3) Final states (.h5) from column spin-up modeling used to initialize historical watershed-scale spin-up runs from 1980 to 2009, located in EACH_WATERSHED/PreSpinupHistorical; (4) Final states (.h5) of historical watershed-scale spin-up runs from 1980 to 2009 used to initialize projection runs, located in EACH_WATERSHED/Spinup_daymetERA5; (5) ATS modeling input files (.xml), located in EACH_WATERSHED/EACH_SIMULATION_SCENARIO/inputfiles; (6) ATS modeling output files (.dat), located in in EACH_WATERSHED/EACH_SIMULATION_SCENARIO/combined_obs; (7) For the Brooks Foothills watershed, additional spatial model outputs are provided (.h5) for selected years (2033 and 2093) used to generate spatial figures in this study, located in Brooksfoothills/EACH_SIMULATION_SCENARIO/results-WITH/WITHOUT_SUBSIDENCE-year2033/2093. All data files with suffix .h5 can be accessible through Python h5py, and all data files with suffix of .dat can be imported by Python pandas. Mesh file with .exo can be visualized through Paraview or read by Python netCDF. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments in the Arctic (NGEE Arctic) project is a research effort to reduce uncertainty in the Department of Energy’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) by developing a predictive understanding of Arctic tundra ecosystems underlain by permafrost and to quantify feedbacks from the Arctic tundra to the Earth system. NGEE Arctic is supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. Over Phases 1–3, observations made by the NGEE Arctic team across a gradient of permafrost landscapes in Arctic Alaska improved the representation of tundra processes in the land surface component of E3SM (the E3SM Land Model, ELM). Model improvements emphasized unique aspects of permafrost environments and explored reductions in model complexity while retaining predictive power. The Arctic-informed ELM developed by NGEE Arctic has been used to make novel predictions on processes ranging from permafrost thaw to soil biogeochemical cycling to Earth system feedbacks associated with the unique characteristics of tundra plants. In Phase 4, the NGEE Arctic team is evaluating our new predictive understanding under novel conditions across the Arctic domain. In collaboration with partners at long-term pan-Arctic research sites we are examining whether an Arctic-informed ELM can faithfully simulate interactions among surface and subsurface processes at site, regional, and pan-Arctic scales. In turn, we are using variety of tools to dynamically extend and evaluate ELM inference, with an emphasis on data synthesis and pan-Arctic model evaluation, reintegration of code with an evolving E3SM, scaling across heterogeneous Arctic landscapes, and the appropriate representation of the impacts of increasingly frequent Arctic disturbances.

EARTH SCIENCE > ATMOSPHERE > PRECIPITATION↗

DOE OSTI2020

Stellar Mass and Stellar Mass-to-light Ratio–Color Relations for Low Surface Brightness Galaxies

We estimate the stellar mass for a sample of low surface brightness galaxies (LSBGs) by fitting their multiband spectral energy distributions (SEDs) to the stellar population synthesis model. The derived stellar masses (log M {sub *}/M {sub ⊙}) span from 7.1 to 11.1, with a mean of log M {sub *}/M {sub ⊙} = 8.5, which is lower than that for normal galaxies. The stellar mass-to-light ratio (γ*) in each band varies little with the absolute magnitude but increases with higher M {sub *}. This trend of γ* with M {sub *} is even stronger in bluer bands. In addition, the γ* for our LSBGs slightly declines from the r band to the longer-wavelength bands. The log γ{sub ∗}{sup j} (j = g, r, i, and z) have relatively tight relations with optical colors of g − r and g − i. Compared with several representative γ*–color relations (MLCRs) from the literature, our MLCRs based on LSBG data are consistently among those literature MLCRs previously defined on diverse galaxy samples, and the existing minor differences between the MLCRs are caused by the differences in the SED model ingredients (including initial mass function, star formation history, and stellar population model), line fitting techniques, galaxy samples, and photometric zero-point, rather than the galaxy surface brightness itself, which distinguishes LSBGs from high surface brightness galaxies. Our LSBGs would be very likely to follow those representative MLCRs previously defined in diverse galaxy populations, if those main ingredients were taken into account.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1988

Development of an engineering model atmosphere for Mars

An engineering model atmosphere for Mars is being developed with many of the same features and capabilities for the highly successful Global Reference Atmospheric Model (GRAM) program for Earth's atmosphere. As an initial approach, the model is being built around the Martian atmosphere model computer subroutine (ATMOS) of Culp and Stewart (1984). In a longer-term program of research, additional refinements and modifications will be included. ATMOS includes parameterizations to stimulate the effects of solar activity, seasonal variation, diurnal variation magnitude, dust storm effects, and effects due to the orbital position of Mars. One of the current shortcomings of ATMOS is the neglect of surface variation effects. The longer-term period of research and model building is to address some of these problem areas and provide further improvements in the model (including improved representation of near-surface variations, improved latitude-longitude gradient representation, effects of the large annual variation in surface pressure because of differential condensation/sublimation of the CO2 atmosphere in the polar caps, and effects of Martian atmospheric wave perturbations on the magnitude of the expected density perturbation.

Justus, C. G.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Simulation of Tropical Biomass Burning

The research objectives that were achieved during the course of our studies include the following: (1) Over the last few years, a model has been developed in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics Branch at Ames Research Center in collaboration with the Physics Department at San Jose State University. It is referred to as the Global/Regional Atmospheric Chemistry Event Simulator (GRACES). Currently, the GRACES model system combines an atmospheric chemistry and transport model, and a regional mesoscale meteorological model. Therefore this system is suitable for simulating the conditions observed by the tropical observation missions, such as the Pacific Exploratory Mission in the 'Tropics (PEM-Tropics), Study of Ozone and Nitrogen oxides Experiment (SONEX), and other periods. Specifically, the research carried out included the evaluation of the behavior of several components of the MM5 (I.e., Meteorological Model 5, version 2) and the GRACES combined modeling system. We initiated research on (a) the ability of the MM5 model to assimilate downward vertical velocities at least as high as the analyses, (b) the ability of the Graces model to incorporate the vertical velocities from MM5, and (c) other factors related to transport patterns required to transport CO in the observed manner. We carried out improved calculations of the transport of tracers for both NASA airborne missions, SONEX and PEM-Tropics. We also made improved source strength estimates fopr isoprene dust, and similar emissions from the Earths surface. This required the use of newly available databases on the Earth's surface and vegetation. We completed atmospheric chemistry simulations of radicals and nitrogen oxide species. We have greatly improved the handling of cumulonimnbus convection by modifing an existing scheme.

Hamill, Patrick↗

NASA NTRS1998

Sensitivity of Cirrus Simulations in Idealized Situations: The WG2 Test Cases

GCSS Cirrus Cloud Systems Working Group (WG2) is presently conducting a comparison of cirrus cloud models for idealized initial conditions. The experiments involve binary (off/on) tests of model sensitivity to infrared radiative processes, and thermal stratification, and vertical wind shear for situations of weakly forced (3 cm/s uplift) cold (-60 to -70 C) and warm (-35 to -50 C) cirrus clouds. A range of model types are involved including parcel, SCM, 2-D CRM, 3-D CRM and LES models. The test cases will be described and results from 2-dimensional cirrus cloud models with bulk microphysics (implicit second moment scheme) and explicit bin microphysics will be compared. Vertical ice mass flux (particle fall speed) is a critical model component leading to significant intermodel differences. Efforts are ongoing to better quantify this aspect. Future plans of WG2 will also be briefly described and include model comparisons for a well-observed case of cold (ARM IOP) cirrus and of warm (EUCREX) cirrus, as well as, a joint activity with WG4 to consider the treatment of anvil cirrus in a variety of models.

Starr, David OC.↗

NASA NTRS1972

Hydrodynamic water impact

The hydrodynamic impact of a falling body upon a viscous incompressible fluid was investigated by numerically solving the equations of motion. Initially the mathematical model simulated the axisymmetric impact of a rigid right circular cylinder upon the initially quiescent free surface of a fluid. A compressible air layer exists between the falling cylinder and the liquid free surface. The mathematical model was developed by applying the Navier-Stokes equations to the incompressible air layer and the incompressible fluid. Assuming the flow to be one dimensional within the air layer, the average velocity, pressure and density distributions were calculated. The liquid free surface was allowed to deform as the air pressure acting on it increases. For the liquid the normalized equations were expressed in two-dimensional cylindrical coordinates. The governing equations for the air layer and the liquid were expressed in finite difference form and solved numerically. For the liquid a modified version of the Marker-and-Cell method was used. The mathematical model has been reexamined and a new approach has recently been initiated. Essentially this consists of examining the impact of an inclined plate onto a quiesent water surface with the equations now formulated in cartesian coordinates.

Kettleborough, C. F.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Diabatic dynamic initialization

A version of the dynamical adjustment procedure is generalized in order to make the procedure applicable to a diabatic model. In this new initialization procedure, backward adiabatic model integration is followed by forward diabatic model integration, with a high-frequency (low-pass) time filter in the form of the Euler backward time-differencing scheme applied throughout the integration. The new procedure was applied to the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres 4D data-assimilation system. It was found that, right from the beginning of the forecast integration, the forecast tendencies (and fields) were free of any noise due to imbalance in initial conditions, and the shocks related to an initial imbalance between model physics and dynamics, or the initial spinup effect, were practically removed.

Fox-Rabinovitz, Michael S.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Particle Engulfment and Pushing By Solidifying Interfaces

The study of particle behavior at solid/liquid interfaces (SLI s) is at the center of the Particle Engulfment and Pushing (PEP) research program. Interactions of particles with SLI s have been of interest since the 1960 s, starting with geological observations, i.e., frost heaving. Ever since, this field of research has become significant to such diverse areas as metal matrix composite materials, fabrication of superconductors, and inclusion control in steels. The PEP research effort is geared towards understanding the fundamental physics of the interaction between particles and a planar SLI. Experimental work including 1-g and mu-g experiments accompany the development of analytical and numerical models. The experimental work comprised of substantial groundwork with aluminum (Al) and zinc (Zn) matrices containing spherical zirconia particles, mu-g experiments with metallic Al matrices and the use of transparent organic metal-analogue materials. The modeling efforts have grown from the initial steady-state analytical model to dynamic models, accounting for the initial acceleration of a particle at rest by an advancing SLI. To gain a more comprehensive understanding, numerical models were developed to account for the influence of the thermal and solutal field. Current efforts are geared towards coupling the diffusive 2-D front tracking model with a fluid flow model to account for differences in the physics of interaction between 1-g and -g environments. A significant amount of this theoretical investigation has been and is being performed by co-investigators at NASA MSFC.

Source record↗

DOE OSTI2021

Re-calibration of PBX9501 SURF model

PBX 9501 is a plastic bonded explosive composed of 95 wt % HMX and a binder; see [Gibbs and Popolato, 1980, pp. 109–119]. SURF is a reactive burn model for shock initiation and propagation of detonation waves. It has previously been calibrated for PBX 9501. Here the SURF model is recalibrated for PBX 9501; specifically, lot 730-010 at ρ = 1.837 g/cc 3 . The new calibration uses the Davis reactants and products EOS calibrated for the AWSD model [Aslam et al., 2020]. The burn rate in the shock initiation regime is fit to the Pop plot from 5 embedded gauge shock-to-detonation transition (SDT) experiments from [Gustavsen et al., 1999, see fig 12 and table 5]. In the propagation regime, the burn rate is fit to curvature effect data (detonation speed as function of front curvature); see [Aslam, 2007]. Also the burn parameters are adjusted to fit the gap-stick experiment [Hill et al., 2018]. Simulating the detonation wave speed in this experiment requires a model that is accurate for initiation with complex shock loading; in particular, a pressure decreasing gradient behind a curved lead shock. This is more difficult than calibrating to the standard SDT experiments which are 1-D and driven by a sustained shock. Simulations of the gap-stick experiment for PBX 9501 with the SURF model will be discussed in a subsequent report.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

NASA NTRS2003

Modeling the Absorbing Aerosol Index

We propose a scheme to model the absorbing aerosol index and improve the biomass carbon inventories by optimizing the difference between TOMS aerosol index (AI) and modeled AI with an inverse model. Two absorbing aerosol types are considered, including biomass carbon and mineral dust. A priori biomass carbon source was generated by Liousse et al [1996]. Mineral dust emission is parameterized according to surface wind and soil moisture using the method developed by Ginoux [2000]. In this initial study, the coupled CCM1 and GRANTOUR model was used to determine the aerosol spatial and temporal distribution. With modeled aerosol concentrations and optical properties, we calculate the radiance at the top of the atmosphere at 340 nm and 380 nm with a radiative transfer model. The contrast of radiance at these two wavelengths will be used to calculate AI. Then we compare the modeled AI with TOMS AI. This paper reports our initial modeling for AI and its comparison with TOMS Nimbus 7 AI. For our follow-on project we will model the global AI with aerosol spatial and temporal distribution recomputed from the IMPACT model and DAO GEOS-1 meteorology fields. Then we will build an inverse model, which applies a Bayesian inverse technique to optimize the agreement of between model and observational data. The inverse model will tune the biomass burning source strength to reduce the difference between modelled AI and TOMS AI. Further simulations with a posteriori biomass carbon sources from the inverse model will be carried out. Results will be compared to available observations such as surface concentration and aerosol optical depth.

Penner, Joyce↗

NASA NTRS2024

Critical Load Exceedances for North America and Europe using an Ensemble of Models and an Investigation of Causes for Environmental Impact Estimate Variability: An AQMEII4 Study

Exceedances of critical loads for deposition of sulphur (S) and nitrogen (N) to different ecosystems were estimated using European and North American ensembles of air quality models, under Phase 4 of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII4), to identify where risk of ecosystem harm is expected to occur based on model deposition estimates. The ensembles were driven by common emissions and lateral boundary condition inputs. Model output was regridded to common North American and Europe 0.125° resolution domains, which were then used to calculate critical load exceedances. New, targeted deposition diagnostics implemented in AQMEII4 allowed an unprecedented level of post-simulation analysis to be carried out and facilitated the identification of specific causes of model-to-model variability in critical load exceedance estimates. New datasets for North American critical loads for acidity for forest soil water and aquatic ecosystems were combined with the ensemble deposition predictions to show a substantial decrease in the area and number of locations in exceedance between 2010 and 2016 (forest soils: 13.2 % to 6.1 %; aquatic ecosystems: 21.2 % to 11.4 %). All models agreed in the direction of the ensemble exceedance change between 2010 and 2016. The North American ensemble also predicted a decrease in both severity and total area in exceedance between the years 2010 and 2016 for eutrophication-impacted ecosystems in the USA (sensitive epiphytic lichen: 81.5 % to 75.8 %). The exceedances for herbaceous community richness also decreased between 2010 and 2016, from 13.9 % to 3.9 %. The uncertainty associated with the North American eutrophication results is high; there were sharp differences between the models in both predictions of total N deposition and the change in N deposition, and hence in the predicted eutrophication exceedances between the two years. The European ensemble was used to predict relatively static exceedances of critical loads with respect to acidification (4.48 % to 4.32 % from 2009 to 2010) while eutrophication exceedance increased slightly (60.2 % to 62.2 %). While most models showed the same changes in critical load exceedances as the ensemble between the two years, the spatial extent and magnitude of exceedances varied significantly between the models. The reasons for this variation were examined in detail by first ranking the relative contribution of different sources of sulphur and nitrogen deposition in terms of deposited mass and model-to-model variability in that deposited mass, followed by their analysis using AQMEII4 diagnostics, along with evaluation of the most recent literature. All models in both the North American and European ensembles had net annual negative biases with respect to observed wet deposition of sulphate, nitrate and ammonium. Diagnostics and recent literature suggest that this bias may stem from insufficient cloud scavenging of aerosols and gases, and may be improved through the incorporation of multiphase hydrometeor scavenging within the modelling frameworks. The inability of North American models to predict the timing of the seasonal peak in wet ammonium ion deposition (observed maximum was in April, while all models predicted a June maximum) may also relate to the need for multiphase hydrometeor scavenging (absence of snow scavenging in all models employed here). High variability in the relative importance of particulate sulphate, nitrate and ammonium deposition fluxes between models was linked to the use of updated particle dry deposition parameterizations in some models. However, recent literature and further development of some of the models within the ensemble suggests these particulate biases may also be ameliorated via the incorporation of multiphase hydrometeor scavenging. Annual sulphur and nitrogen deposition prediction variability was linked to SO 2 and HNO 3 dry deposition parameterizations, and diagnostic analysis showed that the cuticle and soil deposition pathways dominate the deposition mass flux of these species. Further work improving parameterizations for these deposition pathways should reduce variability in model acidifying gas deposition estimates. The absence of base cation chemistry in some models was shown to be a major factor in positive biases in fine mode particulate ammonium and particle nitrate concentrations. Models employing ammonia bidirectional fluxes had both the largest and the smallest magnitude biases, depending on the model and bidirectional flux algorithm employed. A careful analysis of bidirectional flux models suggests that those with poor NH 3 performance may underestimate the extent of NH 3 emissions fluxes from forested areas. Based on these results, an increased process-research focus is therefore recommended for the following model processes and on observations which may assist in model evaluation and improvement: multiphase hydrometeor scavenging combined with updated particle dry deposition, cuticle and soil deposition pathway algorithms for acidifying gases, base cation chemistry and emissions, and NH 3 bidirectional fluxes. Comparisons with satellite observations suggest that oceanic NH 3 emissions sources should be included in regional chemical transport models. The choice of land use database employed within any given model was shown to significantly influence deposition totals in several instances, and employing a common land use database across chemical transport models and critical load calculations is recommended for future work.

critical loads↗

DOE OSTI2018

System Dynamics of Polysilicon for Solar Photovoltaics: A Framework for Investigating the Energy Security of Renewable Energy Supply Chains

Renewable energy, produced with widely available low-cost energy resources, is often included as a component of national strategies to address energy security and sustainability. Market and political forces cannot disrupt the sun or wind, unlike oil and gas supplies. However, the cost of renewable energy is highly dependent on technologies manufactured through global supply chains in leading manufacturing countries. The countries that contribute to the global supply chains may take actions that, directly or indirectly, influence global access to materials and components. For example, high-purity polysilicon, a key material in solar photovoltaics, has experienced significant price fluctuations, affecting the manufacturing capacity and cost of both polysilicon and solar panels. This study has developed and validated an initial system dynamics framework to gain insights into global trade in polysilicon. The model represents an initial framework for exploration. Three regions were modeled-China, the United States, and the rest of the world - for a range of trade scenarios to understand the impacts of import duties and non-price drivers on the relative volumes of imports and domestic supply. The model was validated with the historical case of China imposing an import duty on polysilicon from the United States, the European Union, and South Korea, which altered the regional flows of polysilicon - in terms of imports, exports, and domestic production-to varying degrees. As expected, the model tracked how regional demand shares and influx volumes decrease as a duty on a region increases. Using 2016 as a reference point, in the scenarios examined for U.S. exports to China, each 10% increase in the import duty results in a 40% decrease in import volume. The model also indicates that, under the scenarios investigated, once a duty has been imposed on a region, the demand share from that region declines and does not achieve pre-duty levels, even as global demand increases. Adding additional countries and other components in the photovoltaic supply chain (panels, cells, wafers) to this model could enable policymakers to better understand the relative impact of trade measures across the entire photovoltaic module manufacturing supply chain and the conditions that encourage industry evolution and competitiveness.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Reverse Logistics Ev Battery Recycling Agent Base Model

This represents the initial regional tier of the electric vehicle (EV) battery recycling agent base model. Through this model, we can ascertain the number of EV purchases at both the state and regional levels. We employ census data to develop a diverse household profile to inform decisions regarding the acquisition of new or used EVs. The number of EV purchases at the state level will affect the future demand for recycling, reuse, and repurposing of end-of-life EV batteries. Additionally, tax credits, EV rebate programs, and the financial capacity of households will influence the number of EV purchases, thereby further impacting the demand for EV battery recycling.

Alam, Lamia [Idaho National Laboratory (INL), Idah↗