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Improving Regional Air Quality Forecasting Through Chemical Data Assimilation and Dynamic Emissions Adjustment

Poor air quality (AQ) is one of the most important human-health and environmental problems facing the United States (US). In addition to the detrimental impacts on human- and environmental-health, poor AQ has an economic cost of ~5% of the US gross domestic product (~$790 billion). AQ managers use AQ analyses and modeling to better understand, anticipate, and avoid poor AQ events. Our research focuses on improving AQ analysis/forecast skill, predictability, and emission estimates through improved and more efficient: (i) modeling and data assimilation strategies; (ii) dynamic emissions adjustment strategies; and (iii) use of satellite remote-sensing Earth observations (e.g., MOPITT, IASI, MODIS, OMI, TROPOMI, TEMPO, etc.). This seminar will review: (i) regional chemical weather forecasting/data assimilation with dynamic emissions adjustment with WRF-Chem/DART; (ii) strategies for efficiently assimilating satellite retrieval profiles with ‘compact phase space retrievals’ (CPSRs); (iii) results from joint assimilation of multiple satellite retrievals at medium (12 km × 12 km) and high (4 km × 4 km) spatial resolutions; and (iv) results from observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) to investigate whether we can recover COVID-period anthropogenic emissions by assimilating synthetic TEMPO NO2 tropospheric column retrievals with dynamic emissions adjustment. Biographical Sketch: Dr. Mizzi is a Senior Research Fellow working and Dr. Johnson at the NASA Ames Research Center. He holds BA and MS degrees in Environmental Science from the University of Virginia, MS and PhD degrees in Applied Mathematics from the University of Colorado at Boulder (CUB), and a JD degree (with an emphasis in Environmental Law) from the University of Colorado School of Law. He worked at the National Center for Atmospheric Research for nearly 25 years on global atmospheric modeling, dynamic and physical initialization, regional hybrid data assimilation, and most recently on regional chemical data assimilation. He also worked as an environmental attorney and consultant for nearly 15 years. He is an expert in numerical modeling and is recognized internationally as a leading expert in regional, chemical data assimilation with dynamic emissions adjustment. Dr. Mizzi became affiliated with NASA Ames in March 2020 to work on improving AQ analysis/forecast skill, predictability, and ‘top-down’ emissions adjustment though the assimilation of Earth observations. An emphasis of his current work is developing methods for assimilating synthetic TEMPO retrievals to quantify the expected benefits of TEMPO relative to existing AQ observations.

Arthur P. Mizzi↗

NASA NTRS1984

Investigation of sidewall boundary layer removal effects on two different chord airfoil models in the Langley 0.3-meter Transonic Cryogenic Tunnel

An investigation was carried out on two CAST 10-2 airfoil models with chords of 3 in. and 6 in. To evaluate the extent of sidewall influence on airfoil tests at transonic Mach numbers. The tests were conducted in the Langley 0.3-m Transonic Cryogenic Tunnel two-dimensional test section equipped with an upstream sidewall boundary layer removal system which reduces the boundary layer displacement thickness to about 1 percent of model halfspan from an initial 2 percent without boundary layer removal. Test results have shown the changes in the location of the shock on the upper surface of the airfoil to be about the same for both models with and without sidewall boundary layer removal. Even though large differences were noted in the high lift characteristics of the two models, the sidewall boundary layer removal had little effect on the differences. These tests also served to validate the boundary layer removal technique and the associated Mach number correction required with upstream boundary layer removal.

Murthy, A. V.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Time evolution of interstellar dust and far-infrared luminosity of disk galaxies

The evolution of interstellar dust in disk galaxies is modeled, assuming that dust forms predominantly in molecular clouds associated with star formation. Analytical solutions for the dust abundance in disk galaxies as a function of galaxy age are obtained for the prompt initial enrichment and accretion models of chemical evolution, consistent with observations of the heavy element abundance in the Galaxy. Star formation rates in the disks of galaxies are taken as either constant or decreasing exponentially with time. It is found that the total amount of dust in the early history of galaxies can be up to 4 times the value observed today. The total emission from dust in galaxies is calculated, using an average dust temperature derived from IRAS observations. In the strongly evolving models, the far-infrared luminosity from galaxies can be roughly two orders of magnitude larger than the current value.

Wang, Boqi↗

NASA NTRS1982

The evolution of impact basins - Viscous relaxation of topographic relief

A topographic profile of the young large lunar basin, Orientale, is presented in order to examine the effects of viscous relaxation on basin topography. Analytical models for viscous flow are considered, showing a wavelength-dependence of time constants for viscous decay on the decrease in viscosity with depth and on the extent of the isostatic compensation of the initial topography. Lunar rheological models which are developed include a half-space model for uniform Newtonian viscosity, density, and gravitational acceleration, a layer over inviscid half space model with material inviscid over geological time scales, and a layer with isostatic compensation where a uniformly viscous layer overlies an inviscid half space of higher density. Greater roughness is concluded, and has been observed, on the moon's dark side due to continued lower temperatures since the time of heavy bombardment.

Solomon, S. C.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Advances and trends in the development of computational models for tires

Status and some recent developments of computational models for tires are summarized. Discussion focuses on a number of aspects of tire modeling and analysis including: tire materials and their characterization; evolution of tire models; characteristics of effective finite element models for analyzing tires; analysis needs for tires; and impact of the advances made in finite element technology, computational algorithms, and new computing systems on tire modeling and analysis. An initial set of benchmark problems has been proposed in concert with the U.S. tire industry. Extensive sets of experimental data will be collected for these problems and used for evaluating and validating different tire models. Also, the new Aircraft Landing Dynamics Facility (ALDF) at NASA Langley Research Center is described.

Noor, A. K.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Investigation of the effects of external current systems on the MAGSAT data utilizing grid cell modeling techniques

Progress made in reducing MAGSAT data and displaying magnetic field perturbations caused primarily by external currents is reported. A periodic and repeatable perturbation pattern is described that arises from external current effects but appears as unique signatures associated with upper middle latitudes on the Earth's surface. Initial testing of the modeling procedure that was developed to compute the magnetic fields at satellite orbit due to current distributions in the ionosphere and magnetosphere is also discussed. The modeling technique utilizes a linear current element representation of the large scale space current system.

Klumpar, D. M.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Verification and Validation of a Three-Dimensional Generalized Composite Material Model

A general purpose orthotropic elasto-plastic computational constitutive material model has been developed to improve predictions of the response of composites subjected to high velocity impact. The three-dimensional orthotropic elasto-plastic composite material model is being implemented initially for solid elements in LS-DYNA as MAT213. In order to accurately represent the response of a composite, experimental stress-strain curves are utilized as input, allowing for a more general material model that can be used on a variety of composite applications. The theoretical details are discussed in a companion paper. This paper documents the implementation, verification and qualitative validation of the material model using the T800-F3900 fiber/resin composite material

Plasticity↗

NASA NTRS2014

Verification and Validation of a Three-Dimensional Generalized Composite Material Model

Finite Element Method↗

NASA NTRS1973

Stall/spin studies relating to light general-aviation aircraft.

The present paper discusses the NASA Langley Research Center stall/spin research program to improve the design and the evaluation techniques relative to stall/spin characteristics of general-aviation aircraft. The program encompasses model wind-tunnel tests, spin-tunnel and radio-control model tests, and full-scale airplane spin tests. Initial spin-tunnel results on models with several tail designs representative of light airplanes and several testing techniques are discussed.

Bowman, J. S., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Initialization experiments using a three-dimensional convective cloud model

The use of complex convection models to study cumulus and cumulonimubus formation and growth processes is examined. A model using a symmetric, buoyant bubble as the convection triggering device (Schlesinger, 1978, 1980) is used to compare results with a standard bubble perturbation and with highly elongated perturbations oriented along and across the low level shear vector. The ambient atmosphere used in the study is that of Simpson et al. (1982). The results suggest that perturbation geometry can cause significant differences in simulated cloud development.

Blechman, Jerome B.↗

NASA NTRS1994

A model for collisionally induced disturbed structure in disk galaxies

We derive analytic expressions, using the impulse and epicycle approximations, which describe the kinematic response of a disk galaxy following a collision with a second spherical galaxy which collides perpendicular to, but not through the center of, the disk. This model can reporduce the morphologies found in n-body experiments in which distant encounters produce two-armed spiral patterns and more central collisions produce rings in the disk galaxy, thereby confirming that simple kinematics can be used to describe the early evolution of these systems. Application of this procedure provides a convenient method with which to conduct parameter studies of these collisions. Comparison of the kinematic description with a fully self-gravitating, three-dimensional n-body/gasdynamics computer model shows that the disk galaxy's response is initially well represented by the kinematic model but that the self-gravity of the disk becomes important at longer times after the collision. The flows of gas and stars decouple from one another where stellar orbits cross, leaving regions of elevated gas density behind as the stars move freely past each other. If star formation rates are enhanced in these regions of high gas density, active star formation could be taking place where there is no corresponding dense feature in the old stellar population.

Gerber, Richard A.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Magnetofluid Simulations of the Global Solar Wind Including Pickup Ions and Turbulence Modeling

I will describe a three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic model of the solar wind that takes into account turbulent heating of the wind by velocity and magnetic fluctuations as well as a variety of effects produced by interstellar pickup protons. In this report, the interstellar pickup protons are treated as one fluid and the protons and electrons are treated together as a second fluid. The model equations include a Reynolds decomposition of the plasma velocity and magnetic field into mean and fluctuating quantities, as well as energy transfer from interstellar pickup protons to solar wind protons that results in the deceleration of the solar wind. The model is used to simulate the global steady-state structure of the solar wind in the region from 0.3 to 100 AU. Where possible, the model is compared with Voyager data. Initial results from generalization to a three-fluid model is described elsewhere in this session.

Goldstein, Melvyn L.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Upper-Ocean Heat Balance Processes and the Walker Circulation in CMIP5 Model Projections

Considerable uncertainty remains as to the importance of mechanisms governing decadal and longer variability of the Walker Circulation, its connection to the tropical climate system, and prospects for tropical climate change in the face of anthropogenic forcing. Most contemporary climate models suggest that in response to elevated CO2 and a warmer but more stratified atmosphere, the required upward mass flux in tropical convection will diminish along with the Walker component of the tropical mean circulation as well. Alternatively, there is also evidence to suggest that the shoaling and increased vertical stratification of the thermocline in the eastern Pacific will enable a muted SST increase there-- preserving or even enhancing some of the dynamical forcing for the Walker cell flow. Over the past decade there have been observational indications of an acceleration in near-surface easterlies, a strengthened Pacific zonal SST gradient, and globally-teleconnected dislocations in precipitation. But is this evidence in support of an ocean dynamical thermostat process posited to accompany anthropogenic forcing, or just residual decadal fluctuations associated with variations in warm and cold ENSO events and other stochastic forcing? From a modeling perspective we try to make headway on this question by examining zonal variations in surface energy fluxes and dynamics governing tropical upper ocean heat content evolution in the WCRP CMIP5 model projections. There is some diversity among model simulations; for example, the CCSM4 indicates net ocean warming over the IndoPacific region while the CSIRO model concentrates separate warming responses over the central Pacific and Indian Ocean regions. The models, as with observations, demonstrate strong local coupling between variations in column water vapor, downward surface longwave radiation and SST; but the spatial patterns of changes in the sign of this relationship differ among models and, for models as a whole, with observations. Our analysis focuses initially on probing the inter-model differences in energy fluxes / transports and Walker Circulation response to forcing. We then attempt to identify statistically the El Nino- / La Nina-related ocean heat content variability unique to each model and regress out the associated energy flux, ocean heat transport and Walker response on these shorter time scales for comparison to that of the anthropogenic signals.

Robertson, F. R.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Cloud-Based Numerical Weather Prediction for Near Real-Time Forecasting and Disaster Response

The use of cloud computing resources continues to grow within the public and private sector components of the weather enterprise as users become more familiar with cloud‐computing concepts, and competition among service providers continues to reduce costs and other barriers to entry. Cloud resources can also provide capabilities similar to high‐performance computing environments, supporting multi‐node systems required for near real‐time, regional weather predictions. Referred to as "Infrastructure as a Service", or IaaS, the use of cloud-based computing hardware in an on‐demand payment system allows for rapid deployment of a modeling system in environments lacking access to a large, supercomputing infrastructure. Use of IaaS capabilities to support regional weather prediction may be of particular interest to developing countries that have not yet established large supercomputing resources, but would otherwise benefit from a regional weather forecasting capability. Recently, collaborators from NASA Marshall Space Flight Center and Ames Research Center have developed a scripted, on‐demand capability for launching the NOAA/NWS Science and Training Resource Center (STRC) Environmental Modeling System (EMS), which includes pre‐compiled binaries of the latest version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The WRF‐EMS provides scripting for downloading appropriate initial and boundary conditions from global models, along with higher‐resolution vegetation, land surface, and sea surface temperature data sets provided by the NASA Short‐term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center. This presentation will provide an overview of the modeling system capabilities and benchmarks performed on the Amazon Elastic Compute Cloud (EC2) environment. In addition, the presentation will discuss future opportunities to deploy the system in support of weather prediction in developing countries supported by NASA's SERVIR Project, which provides capacity building activities in environmental monitoring and prediction across a growing number of regional hubs throughout the world. Capacity‐building applications that extend numerical weather prediction to developing countries are intended to provide near real‐time applications to benefit public health, safety, and economic interests, but may have a greater impact during disaster events by providing a source for local predictions of weather‐related hazards, or impacts that local weather events may have during the recovery phase.

Molthan, Andrew↗

NASA NTRS2015

An Integrated Economics Model for ISRU in Support of a Mars Colony: Initial Status Report

No abstract available

in situ resource utilitization↗

NASA NTRS1985

Mare basalt genesis - Modeling trace elements and isotopic ratios

Various types of mare basalt data have been synthesized, leading to the production of an internally consistent model of the mare basalt source region and mare basalt genesis. The model accounts for the mineralogical, major oxide, compatible siderophile trace element, incompatible trace element, and isotopic characteristics of most of the mare basalt units and of all the pyroclastic glass units for which reliable data are available. Initial tests of the model show that it also reproduces the mineralogy and incompatible trace element characteristics of the complementary highland anorthosite suite of rocks and, in a general way, those of the lunar granite suite of rocks.

Binder, A. B.↗

NASA NTRS1989

On the mechanics of filament winding. I - A generalized model

In this paper the filament winding process was analyzed to relate process variables to structural parameters. An analytical model has been developed for a filament wound preform by determining the necessary geometric and kinematic conditions. An equation of motion of winding was developed to predict layer by layer geometry using the mandrel shape as the initial boundary condition. This model provides the laws of motion of the traverse stroke relative to the mandrel to ensure that the filament laydown is of the predetermined geodesic path over the mandrel, that the winding density is distributed over the mandrel in the prearranged manner, and that the winding build is being formed to reproduce the preassigned shape or contour of the preform. From this analysis, the winding process parameters can be controlled accordingly to produce any given shape. The analytical model was used to produce computer simulation of the winding process. The dynamic simulation of the winding process visualizes and inspects the layer by layer path of the tow and provides process variables required to produce preforms of optimum structural parameters.

Hamouda, Hechmi↗

NASA NTRS1993

Some practical turbulence modeling options for Reynolds-averaged full Navier-Stokes calculations of three-dimensional flows

New turbulence modeling options recently implemented for the 3D version of Proteus, a Reynolds-averaged compressible Navier-Stokes code, are described. The implemented turbulence models include: the Baldwin-Lomax algebraic model, the Baldwin-Barth one-equation model, the Chien k-epsilon model, and the Launder-Sharma k-epsilon model. Features of this turbulence modeling package include: well documented and easy to use turbulence modeling options, uniform integration of turbulence models from different classes, automatic initialization of turbulence variables for calculations using one- or two-equation turbulence models, multiple solid boundaries treatment, and fully vectorized L-U solver for one- and two-equation models. Good agreements are obtained between the computational results and experimental data. Sensitivity of the compressible turbulent solutions with the method of y(+) computation, the turbulent length scale correction, and some compressibility corrections are examined in detail. Test cases show that the highly optimized one- and two-equation turbulence models can be used in routine 3D Navier-Stokes computations with no significant increase in CPU time as compared with the Baldwin-Lomax algebraic model.

Bui, Trong T.↗