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Coupled Neutronic and Thermal Hydraulic Analysis of a Natural Circulation Based Small Modular Reactor (SMR) Using VERA-CS

As part of the work supported by a US Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy Gateway for Accelerated Innovation in Nuclear FY 2020 Voucher, Holtec International subsidiary SMR LLC (hereinafter referred to as Holtec) and Oak Ridge National Laboratory entered into a cooperative research and development agreement (CRADA) to develop coupled multiphysics core models of the Holtec developed small modular reactor (SMR), SMR-160. The scope of the 1 year project was to use the DOE–developed tool set, VERA, to analyze several aspects of a representative SMR-160 core design. The goals of the project were to perform the code-to-code benchmarking and to provide Holtec with a confirmatory calculations to compare against the results with the codes used in the SMR-160 design, identify and resolve areas of discrepancy between the two models to give Holtec a basis for selecting certain tool and model options, and develop a workflow so that the VERA model could be adapted easily to any future changes in the design of the SMR-160 core. The work proceeded in four phases: 1. Developing the initial VERA model based on Holtec-provided core design information; 2. Comparing VERA results with Holtec-provided calculations for the first five cycles; 3. Developing a VERA transient model based on the prior model; and 4. Training Holtec personnel on VERA and hand-off the developed models. This report summarizes at a high level the completed tasks. Details of the tasks and results are reserved for the full report, which will not be publicly released for 5 years per the terms of the CRADA. The report is titled “Coupled Neutronic and Thermal Hydraulic Analysis of a Natural Circulation Based Small Modular Reactor (SMR) using VERA-CS” and has the ORNL technical report number ORNL/TM 2021/2303 (NFE-20-08305)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Spectral Irradiance Calibration in the Infrared: 3-35 microns Spectra of Three Southern Standard Stars - Part 6

We present three new absolutely calibrated continuous stellar spectra from 3 to 35 microns, constructed as far as possible from actual observed spectral fragments taken from the Kuiper Airborne Observatory (KAO), and the IRAS Low Resolution Spectrometer (LRS). These stars- alpha(sup 1) Cen, alpha TrA, and epsilon Car-augment our previous archive of complete absolutely calibrated spectra for northern K and M giants. All these spectra have a common calibration pedigree. The wavelength coverage is ideal for calibration of many existing and proposed ground-based, airborne, and satellite sensors. KAO and IRAS data in the 15-30 micron range suggest that the spectra of cool giants are close to Rayleigh-Jeans slopes. Our observations of alpha(sup 1) Cen, absolutely calibrated via our adopted Sirius model, indicate an angular diameter in very good agreement with values in the literature, demonstrating 'closure' of the set of spectra within our absolute framework. We compare our observed alpha(sup 1) Cen spectrum with a published grid of theoretical models from Kurucz, and adopt a plausible theoretical shape, that fits our spectrum, as a secondary reference spectrum in the southern sky.

Cohen, Martin↗

Structural Insights into HIV Reverse Transcriptase Mutations Q151M and Q151M Complex That Confer Multinucleoside Drug Resistance

HIV-1 reverse transcriptase (RT) is targeted by multiple drugs. RT mutations that confer resistance to nucleoside RT inhibitors (NRTIs) emerge during clinical use. Q151M and four associated mutations, A62V, V75I, F77L, and F116Y, were detected in patients failing therapies with dideoxynucleosides (didanosine [ddI], zalcitabine [ddC]) and/or zidovudine (AZT). The cluster of the five mutations is referred to as the Q151M complex (Q151Mc), and an RT or virus containing Q151Mc exhibits resistance to multiple NRTIs. To understand the structural basis for Q151M and Q151Mc resistance, we systematically determined the crystal structures of the wild-type RT/double-stranded DNA (dsDNA)/dATP (complex I), wild-type RT/dsDNA/ddATP (complex II), Q151M RT/dsDNA/dATP (complex III), Q151Mc RT/dsDNA/dATP (complex IV), and Q151Mc RT/dsDNA/ddATP (complex V) ternary complexes. The structures revealed that the deoxyribose rings of dATP and ddATP have 3'-endo and 3'-exo conformations, respectively. The single mutation Q151M introduces conformational perturbation at the deoxynucleoside triphosphate (dNTP)-binding pocket, and the mutated pocket may exist in multiple conformations. The compensatory set of mutations in Q151Mc, particularly F116Y, restricts the side chain flexibility of M151 and helps restore the DNA polymerization efficiency of the enzyme. The altered dNTP-binding pocket in Q151Mc RT has the Q151-R72 hydrogen bond removed and has a switched conformation for the key conserved residue R72 compared to that in wild-type RT. On the basis of a modeled structure of hepatitis B virus (HBV) polymerase, the residues R72, Y116, M151, and M184 in Q151Mc HIV-1 RT are conserved in wild-type HBV polymerase as residues R41, Y89, M171, and M204, respectively; functionally, both Q151Mc HIV-1 and wild-type HBV are resistant to dideoxynucleoside analogs.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Quantitative Account of the Bonding Properties of a Rubredoxin Model Complex [Fe(SCH3)4]q, q = -2, -1, +2, +3

Iron-sulfur clusters play important roles in biology as parts of electron transfer chains and catalytic cofactors. Here, we report a detailed computational analysis of a structural model of the simplest natural iron-sulfur cluster of rubredoxin and its cationic counterparts. Specifically, we report results for the ground and low-lying electronically excited states of the complex [Fe(SCH3)4]2-/1-/2+/3+, using Multi-Reference (CASSCF, MRCISD), and Coupled Cluster [CCSD(T)] methodology in order to provide accurate adiabatic reduction energies, dissociation energies and insights into the bonding analysis. The nature of the Fe-S chemical bond and the magnitude of the ionization potentials in the anionic and cationic [Fe(SCH3)4] complexes offer a physical rationale for the relative stabilization, structure and speciation of these complexes. Anionic and cationic complexes present different types of chemical bonds: prevalently ionic in [Fe(SCH3)4]2-/1- complexes and covalent in [Fe(SCH3)4]2+/3+ complexes. The ionic bonds result in an energy gain for the transition [Fe(SCH3)4]2-®[Fe(SCH3)4]- (i.e., FeII®FeIII) of 1.5 eV, while the covalent bonds result in an energy loss for the transition [Fe(SCH3)4]2+®[Fe(SCH3)4]3+ of 16.6 eV, almost half of the IP of Fe2+. The ionic vs covalent bond character influences the Fe-S bond strength and length, i.e., ionic Fe-S bonds are longer than covalent ones by about 0.2 Å (for FeII) and 0.04 Å (for FeII). Finally, the average Fe-S heterolytic bond strength is 6.7 eV (FeII) and 14.6 (FeIII) eV at the RCCSD(T) level of theory.

Tzeli, Demeter↗

Linking soil phosphorus with forest litterfall resistance and resilience to cyclone disturbance: A pantropical meta-analysis

While tropical cyclone regimes are shifting with climate change, the mechanisms underpinning the resistance (ability to withstand disturbance-induced change) and resilience (capacity to return to pre-disturbance reference) of tropical forest litterfall to cyclones remain largely unexplored pantropically. Single-site studies in Australia and Hawaii suggest that litterfall on low-phosphorus (P) soils is more resistant and less resilient to cyclones. Here, we conducted a meta-analysis to investigate the pantropical importance of total soil P in mediating forest litterfall resistance and resilience to 22 tropical cyclones. We evaluated cyclone-induced and post-cyclone litterfall mass (g/m 2 /day), and P and nitrogen (N) fluxes (mg/m 2 /day) and concentrations (mg/g), all indicators of ecosystem function and essential for nutrient cycling. Across 73 case studies in Australia, Guadeloupe, Hawaii, Mexico, Puerto Rico, and Taiwan, total litterfall mass flux increased from ~2.5 ± 0.3 to 22.5 ± 3 g/m 2 /day due to cyclones, with large variation among studies. Litterfall P and N fluxes post-cyclone represented ~5% and 10% of the average annual fluxes, respectively. Post-cyclone leaf litterfall N and P concentrations were 21.6 ± 1.2% and 58.6 ± 2.3% higher than pre-cyclone means. Mixed-effects models determined that soil P negatively moderated the pantropical litterfall resistance to cyclones, with a 100 mg P/kg increase in soil P corresponding to a 32% to 38% decrease in resistance. Based on 33% of the resistance case studies, total litterfall mass flux reached pre-disturbance levels within one-year post-disturbance. A GAMM indicated that soil P, gale wind duration and time post-cyclone jointly moderate the short-term resilience of total litterfall, with the nature of the relationship between resilience and soil P contingent on time and wind duration. Across pantropical forests observed to date, our results indicate that litterfall resistance and resilience in the face of intensifying cyclones will be partially determined by total soil P.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

First Look Fund - An Early-Stage Aligned Intermediary to Enhance the Flow of Private Capital into Energy Companies (Final Technical Report)

The technologies required to advance society into a cleaner, better future will come from a broad range of scientific disciplines including materials science, chemistry, physics, and biology. The innovations will rely on scientific breakthroughs rather than software innovation and can be referred to as “hardtech.” These new technology developments will have vast implications across most industrial sectors: energy, materials, manufacturing, electronics, life sciences, etc. The majority of these scientific breakthroughs will be produced and developed by startup companies, which are best suited for high-risk, early-stage development work. However, a large funding gap exists between lab-scale scientific research of the startup world and industrial-scale commercialization. Activate Global, Inc (Activate), a 501(c)3 nonprofit, fills one part of this gap with the Activate Fellowship program1.To fully bridge the gap between lab and market, additional and aligned capital sources are needed. Through this project, Activate’s goals were: Research the recent history (2005-2015) of hardtech investing to discover the driving forces behind positive and negative outcomes from the viewpoint of investors.; Create a database of “technology pathways” categorized by specific technology areas and showing what technology milestones would be needed to be attractive to a partner or acquirer and what resources were available to achieve those goals.; Build a financial model supported by the data acquired that would show attractive returns were possible in early-stage hardtech investing.; Create an investment thesis around the financial model to show how attractive returns could be achieved in an early-stage hardtech-focused fund.; Publish a paper with a qualitative comparative analysis to help investors better understand driving factors of outcomes.; Share these findings with asset managers not currently investing in early-stage hardtech to attract partners to execute the investment strategy.; Implement the investment strategy and begin investing in early-stage hardtech companies through a new vehicle: First Look Fund. Through this research, Activate created a database of nearly 200 hardtech companies that exited via an M&A transaction between 2005 and 2015. Much of the data Activate obtained was nonpublic information and therefore, the database was anonymized. Activate also created the technology pathways database to help new early-stage hardtech companies define milestones, technology objectives and potential resources. Activate created a financial model with a legal structure showing that market-rate returns were possible, created an investment thesis around that model, and then shared these findings with potential partners. Finally, Activate’s research was used to publish a paper with Stanford on driving factors behind financial outcomes that will help investors better guide their portfolios. While Activate was not able to launch the First Look Fund during the project timeline, mostly due to the fallout from COVID-19 (global economic shocks decreasing interest in first time funds, inability to meet potential investors in person), the research has created enough interest for Activate to continue pursuing the goals of the project, showing the potential feasibility of the endeavor. Regardless of Activate’s ability to execute on the investment strategy, the resulting research has been downloaded, viewed, and referenced by investors and becomes another tool to encourage investment in the early-stage hardtech space.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Land Surface Precipitation and Hydrology in MERRA-2

The Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), provides global, 1-hourly estimates of land surface conditions for 1980-present at 50-km resolution. Outside of the high latitudes, MERRA-2 uses observations-based precipitation data products to correct the precipitation falling on the land surface. This paper describes the precipitation correction method and evaluates the MERRA-2 land surface precipitation and hydrology. Compared to monthly GPCPv2.2 observations, the corrected MERRA-2 precipitation (M2CORR) is better than the precipitation generated by the atmospheric models within the cyclingMERRA-2 system and the earlier MERRA reanalysis. Compared to 3-hourlyTRMM observations, the M2CORR diurnal cycle has better amplitude but less realistic phasing than MERRA-2 model-generated precipitation. Because correcting the precipitation within the coupled atmosphere-land modeling system allows the MERRA-2 near-surface air temperature and humidity to respond to the improved precipitation forcing, MERRA-2 provides more self-consistent surface meteorological data than were available from the earlier, offline MERRA-Land reanalysis. Overall, MERRA-2 land hydrology estimates are better than those of MERRA-Land and MERRA. A comparison against GRACE satellite observations of terrestrial water storage demonstrates clear improvements in MERRA-2 over MERRA in South America and Africa but also reflects known errors in the observations used to correct the MERRA-2 precipitation. The MERRA-2 and MERRA-Land surface and root zone soil moisture skill vs. in situ measurements is slightly higher than that of ERA-Interim Land and higher than that of MERRA (significantly for surface soil moisture). Snow amounts from MERRA-2 have lower bias and correlate better against reference data than do those of MERRA-Land and MERRA, with MERRA-2 skill roughly matching that of ERA-Interim Land. Seasonal anomaly R values against naturalized stream flow measurements in the United States are, on balance, highest for MERRA-2 and ERA-Interim Land, somewhat lower for MERRA-Land, and lower still for MERRA.

MERRA-↗

Overview of the NASA LISA Laser System Development

NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) is developing the Laser System (LS) for the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) mission, led by the European Space Agency (ESA) with a launch date of 2035. The LS under development at NASA GSFC consists of the Laser Head (LH), the Frequency Reference System (FRS), and the Power Monitor (PMON) Detector Assemblies. Since late 2017, we have been developing various models to advance the technology readiness level (TRL) for the LH from prototype (TRL4) to a system model demonstration in a relevant environment (TRL6). For the LH and FRS, the models further breakdown into the optical and electronics modules where the LH is made up of the Laser Optical Module (LOM) and the Laser Electronics Module (LEM) and the FRS consists of the FRS Optical Reference Cavity (FRS-O) and the FRS Electronics (FRS-E). The LS development follows the established NASA process in demonstrating the performance requirements [1] through the TRL4 effort and then advancing the form factor and package design to meet relevant environment requirements and qualifying the TRL6 design through rigorous testing and performance verification for space applications. The LOM for the LH is a main oscillator power amplifier (MOPA) with wavelength of 1064 nm and nominal output power of 2 Watt throughout the mission. The low-power, low-noise main oscillator (MO) is a custom micro non-planar ring oscillator (µNPRO) [2] that is phase modulated then amplified by the forward pumped ytterbium-dope fiber power amplifier (PA) stage to meet the output power requirement. The FRS is baselined on the GRACE Follow-On (GFO) [3] approach with updated FRS-E design to work with the LH-LEM. The PMON is located on the Optical Bench Assembly (OBA) [4] that samples a small portion of the LH output signal and provides the feedback signal to the LH-LEM for relative intensity noise (RIN) control. In this paper, we will report on the latest status of the LH testing and system level tests, explain the other subsystems involved in the test campaigns, and discuss the path to bring each LS subsystem to TRL6. We will also present the NASA GSFC roadmap in advancing the LISA LS to TRL6+ and plans for future system level testing as well as the preparation for space flight development to meet the LISA launch date of 2035.

amplifier↗

Macroscopic and microscopic behaviors of Mn(II) (ad)sorption to goethite with the effects of dissolved carbonates under anoxic conditions

Manganese and its compounds have been extensively researched because of their far-reaching roles in a wide range of biogeochemical processes in natural systems. The (ad)sorption behavior of Mn(II), however, is poorly understood despite its important role as the primary reaction step for surface-catalyzed Mn(II) oxidation that is the principal abiotic process forming various Mn (oxyhydr)oxides in nature. Here, we systematically examined Mn(II) (ad)sorption to one of the most common natural sorbents, goethite, in oxygen- and carbonate-free systems. Traditional sorption edge and isotherm experiments were conducted by varying sorbate-to-sorbent ratio (0.027–15 μmol∙m -2 ) and solution pH (pH 5.0–9.0). The effects of dissolved carbonates on Mn(II) sorption were also assessed in a range of naturally prevalent concentrations (0.5–10 mM NaHCO 3 ). The Mn(II) uptake on goethite followed a typical Langmuir isotherm in the absence of dissolved carbonates, with increasing maximum adsorption capacities (Γ max ) from 0.19 at pH 6.5 to 3.4 μmol∙m -2 at pH 9.0. The presence of dissolved carbonates raised the extent of Mn(II) adsorption, which appeared to be directly correspondent to that of the adsorption of dissolved carbonates. Extended X-ray absorption fine structure (EXAFS) analysis indicated that Mn(II) predominantly formed inner-sphere binuclear bidentate surface complexes. Mn(II) uptake became deviated from the Langmuir model and showed a clear indication of surface precipitation when the Mn(II) sorption density (Γ) exceeded a threshold value in a given solution composition. This secondary Mn(II) phase was identified as rhodochrosite using X-ray diffraction (XRD) and transmission electron microscope (TEM). Furthermore, it would be plausible that a minor fraction of adsorbed Mn(II) coexisted with the secondary rhodochrosite according to a linear combination fitting (LCF) of the X-ray absorption near edge structure (XANES) spectra of Mn reference and samples. These systematic investigations of the macroscopic and microscopic behaviors of Mn(II) (ad)sorption to goethite provide a critical avenue for disentangling surface-catalytic Mn(II) oxidation processes, which ultimately lead to the formation of diverse Mn (oxyhydr)oxides in the environment.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

EnergyFit Nevada (formerly known as the Nevada Retrofit Initiative) final report and technical evaluation

The EnergyFit Nevada (EFN) Better Buildings Neighborhood Program (BBNP, and referred to in this document as the EFN program) currently encourages Nevada residents to make whole-house energy-efficient improvements by providing rebates, financing, and access to a network of qualified home improvement contractors. The BBNP funding, consisting of 34 Energy Efficiency Conservation Block Grants (EECBG) and seven State Energy Program (SEP) grants, was awarded for a three-year period to the State of Nevada in 2010 and used for initial program design and implementation. By the end of first quarter in 2014, the program had achieved upgrades in 553 homes, with an average energy reduction of 32% per home. Other achievements included: Completed 893 residential energy audits and installed upgrades in 0.05% of all Nevada single-family homes1 Achieved an overall conversation rate of 38.1%2 7,089,089 kWh of modeled energy savings3 Total annual homeowner energy savings of approximately $525,7523 Efficiency upgrades completed on 1,100,484 square feet of homes3 $139,992 granted in loans to homeowners for energy-efficiency upgrades 29,285 hours of labor and $3,864,272 worth of work conducted by Nevada auditors and contractors4 40 contractors trained in Nevada 37 contractors with Building Performance Institute (BPI) certification in Nevada 19 contractors actively participating in the EFN program in Nevada 1 Calculated using 2012 U.S. Census data reporting 1,182,870 homes in Nevada. 2 Conversion rate through March 31, 2014, for all Nevada Retrofit Initiative (NRI)-funded projects, calculated using the EFN tracking database. 3 OptiMiser energy modeling, based on current utility rates. 4 This is the sum of $3,596,561 in retrofit invoice value and $247,711 in audit invoice value.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Lessons Learned from the Aquarius Radiometer Engineering Model

The Aquarius instrument is a combination microwave radiometer and scatterometer operating in the L-band for the measurement of sea surface salinity (SSS) over the open-ocean. "The Aquarius science goals are to observe and model the processes that relate salinity variations to climatic changes in the global cycling of water and to understand how these variations influence the general ocean circulation. By measuring salinity globally and synoptically every month for 3 years, Aquarius will provide an unprecedented new view of the ocean's role in climate." (http://aquarius.asfc.nasa.gov on Jan. 4, 2007). To launch in 2009, Aquarius will provide 8-day global coverage and monthly-averaged salinity maps at approx.120-km spatial resolution. Because the microwave emissivity of the ocean surface is weakly dependent upon salinity, the Aquarius radiometer remain sufficiently stable to provide accurate salinity measurements. An engineering model (EM) of one radiometer receiver was developed and tested for functionality and performance at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center. It was tested for long-term stability starting July 27,2006. Two discrepancies where found at the start of testing and a four-month correction process ensued. This paper covers the testing and debugging of the EM radiometer through resolution of the problems. The radiometer is required to have calibration stability of less than or equal to 0.15 K over 7 days. The radiometer is in a three-beam push-broom configuration with each beam being an independent three-state Dicke radiometer (antenna, reference load, and additive noise). Internal noise diodes and reference loads provide periodic and rapid calibration of the receiver. Front-end loss contributions must be corrected as the lossy components are outside the calibration loop. A key design feature for obtaining stability is active thermal control of the front-end lossy components and the RF receiver. The thermal stability is predicted to be about 0.1 C over an orbit and no more than 1 C over a year. The radiometric stability requirement is 0.13 K rms 1 7 days without using temperature corrections. Temperature corrections and post-launch calibration are expected to extend the stability period through the life of the mission.

Piepmeier, Jeffrey↗

Characterization of Evidence for Human System Risk Assessment

Understanding the kinds of evidence available and using the best evidence to answer a question is critical to evidenced-based decision-making, and it requires synthesis of evidence from a variety of sources. Categorization of human system risks in spaceflight, in particular, focuses on how well the integration and interpretation of all available evidence informs the risk statement that describes the relationship between spaceflight hazards and an outcome of interest. A mature understanding and categorization of these risks requires: 1) sufficient characterization of risk, 2) sufficient knowledge to determine an acceptable level of risk (i.e., a standard), 3) development of mitigations to meet the acceptable level of risk, and 4) identification of factors affecting generalizability of the evidence to different design reference missions. In the medical research community, evidence is often ranked by increasing confidence in findings gleaned from observational and experimental research (e.g., "levels of evidence"). However, an approach based solely on aspects of experimental design is problematic in assessing human system risks for spaceflight. For spaceflight, the unique challenges and opportunities include: (1) The independent variables in most evidence are the hazards of spaceflight, such as space radiation or low gravity, which cannot be entirely duplicated in terrestrial (Earth-based) analogs, (2) Evidence is drawn from multiple sources including medical and mission operations, Lifetime Surveillance of Astronaut Health (LSAH), spaceflight research (LSDA), and relevant environmental & terrestrial databases, (3) Risk metrics based primarily on LSAH data are typically derived from available prevalence or incidence data, which may limit rigorous interpretation, (4) The timeframe for obtaining adequate spaceflight sample size (n) is very long, given the small population, (5) Randomized controlled trials are unattainable in spaceflight, (6) Collection of personal and environmental data on the astronaut population may create opportunities for advanced analytics and human-environment modeling that goes beyond that achieved in isolated experimental designs; and (7) Translation of relevant research to operations is a complex, transdisciplinary enterprise in which the approach must apply across the physical, biological, behavioral, and social sciences. The approach to synthesizing evidence must address both source and fidelity of data, and reflect the most general attributes of quality of evidence in science and engineering: reliability and validity. The authors are developing a two-factor approach which includes the various kinds of evidence required to understand risks and for the integrated interpretation of all evidence that is essential to develop standards and countermeasures. A unified framework for aggregating and assessing different kinds of evidence provides a consistent, traceable, evidence-based decision-making process to translate research to operations in an environment where engineers, scientists, physicians, and managers all engage in analyzing the trade space of vehicle design, standards, requirements and solutions for spaceflight.

Steinberg, S. L.↗

Evaluation of H-Canyon Ventilation Exhaust Tunnel Inspection at the Savannah River Site - 20052

The Department of Energy (DOE) H-Canyon Facility at the Savannah River Site (SRS) is operated by Savannah River Nuclear Solutions (SRNS). The Facility Structural Integrity Program [1] provides a process to inspect, evaluate, and document the conditions of passive safety related structural systems and components, their degradation mechanisms and their impact on the safety envelope. The Structural Integrity Program performs periodic visual inspections to confirm the systems and components can perform their safety function and recommend corrective actions before the function is compromised. The H-Canyon Exhaust Tunnel is part of the H-Canyon Ventilation System and is periodically inspected under the Structural Integrity Program. The Tunnel performs a Safety Class passive design feature function that is available 100% of the time. The underground reinforced concrete Tunnel directs Canyon process air from the Canyon to the Sand Filter System. The radiological and chemical airborne activity coupled with the physical configuration of the tunnel precludes a manned entry into the tunnel to perform the inspection. Unlike active systems that can be subjected to physical testing to confirm capability, qualification calculations, including modeling, is performed to assess passive design feature capabilities relative to operational, accident and natural phenomena hazards events. Input for these calculations come from knowledge of field conditions, design drawings and conservative assumptions. The knowledge of field conditions comes from concrete and soil testing activities as well as inspection data. The use of cameras on crawlers to obtain inspection data and how that data is used in qualification calculations is the focus of this discussion. Remote Tunnel inspections have been performed using cameras on a stick, referred to as pole cameras, prior to Calendar Year 2003 (CY2003). Since CY2003, six camera equipped crawlers have been used. Crawlers have evolved and improved by incorporating lessons learned from the previous inspections. The latest 2019 crawler successfully traveled the entire length of the tunnel between the Canyon and Sand Filter System and captured images that were previously unseen, thus providing key visual data for the Structural Integrity Program report [2]. The inspection data serves as 1) input to qualification calculations, 2) validates current conditions remain bounded by qualification calculations, and 3) documents a record of change over time. This data is vital for the effective evaluation of the tunnel structure and aids with predicting the life cycle service life safety envelope to protect the public, environment, and facility worker. The goal of the 2019 deployment was to use a more robust vehicle to ensure travel over obstacles, perform the inspection with higher resolution cameras, and have the ability to elevate the cameras to view surfaces previously obscured by abandon-in-place ducts in the tunnel. The inspection information will serve to strengthen the input basis for qualification calculations, versus using excessive conservative calculation assumptions. This 2019 inspection was compared with previous crawler visual evidence to identify change over time to project remaining service life and confirm field conditions remain bounded by qualification calculations. The results of the 2019 Exhaust Tunnel inspection continue to improve and provide a firm basis to make sound engineering judgements regarding tunnel capability and approaches in projecting remaining service life with an aging system and component. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

SU-E-J-85: Leave-One-Out Perturbation (LOOP) Fitting Algorithm for Absolute Dose Film Calibration

Purpose: To introduce an outliers-recognition fitting routine for film dosimetry. It cannot only be flexible with any linear and non-linear regression but also can provide information for the minimal number of sampling points, critical sampling distributions and evaluating analytical functions for absolute film-dose calibration. Methods: The technique, leave-one-out (LOO) cross validation, is often used for statistical analyses on model performance. We used LOO analyses with perturbed bootstrap fitting called leave-one-out perturbation (LOOP) for film-dose calibration . Given a threshold, the LOO process detects unfit points (“outliers”) compared to other cohorts, and a bootstrap fitting process follows to seek any possibilities of using perturbations for further improvement. After that outliers were reconfirmed by a traditional t-test statistics and eliminated, then another LOOP feedback resulted in the final. An over-sampled film-dose- calibration dataset was collected as a reference (dose range: 0-800cGy), and various simulated conditions for outliers and sampling distributions were derived from the reference. Comparisons over the various conditions were made, and the performance of fitting functions, polynomial and rational functions, were evaluated. Results: (1) LOOP can prove its sensitive outlier-recognition by its statistical correlation to an exceptional better goodness-of-fit as outliers being left-out. (2) With sufficient statistical information, the LOOP can correct outliers under some low-sampling conditions that other “robust fits”, e.g. Least Absolute Residuals, cannot. (3) Complete cross-validated analyses of LOOP indicate that the function of rational type demonstrates a much superior performance compared to the polynomial. Even with 5 data points including one outlier, using LOOP with rational function can restore more than a 95% value back to its reference values, while the polynomial fitting completely failed under the same conditions. Conclusion: LOOP can cooperate with any fitting routine functioning as a “robust fit”. In addition, it can be set as a benchmark for film-dose calibration fitting performance.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Four-Dimensional Dose Reconstruction for Scanned Proton Therapy Using Liver 4DCT-MRI

Purpose: Four-dimensional computed tomography-magnetic resonance imaging (4DCT-MRI) is an image-processing technique for simulating many 4DCT data sets from a static reference CT and motions extracted from 4DMRI studies performed using either volunteers or patients. In this work, different motion extraction approaches were tested using 6 liver cases, and a detailed comparison between 4DCT-MRI and 4DCT was performed. Methods and Materials: 4DCT-MRI has been generated using 2 approaches. The first approach used motion extracted from 4DMRI as being “most similar” to that of 4DCT from the same patient (subject-specific), and the second approach used the most similar motion obtained from a motion library derived from 4DMRI liver studies of 13 healthy volunteers (population-based). The resulting 4DCT-MRI and 4DCTs were compared using scanned proton 4D dose calculations (4DDC). Results: Dosimetric analysis showed that 93% ± 8% of points inside the clinical target volume (CTV) agreed between 4DCT and subject-specific 4DCT-MRI (gamma analysis: 3%/3 mm). The population-based approach however showed lower dosimetric agreement with only 79% ± 14% points in the CTV reaching the 3%/3 mm criteria. Conclusions: 4D CT-MRI extends the capabilities of motion modeling for dose calculations by accounting for realistic and variable motion patterns, which can be directly employed in clinical research studies. We have found that the subject-specific liver modeling appears more accurate than the population-based approach. The former is particularly interesting for clinical applications, such as improved target delineation and 4D dose reconstruction for patient-specific QA to allow for inter- and/or intra-fractional plan corrections.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Additional Large-Drop Ice Accretion Test Results for a Large Scale Swept Wing Section from January 2022

In-flight icing is an important consideration that affects aircraft design, performance, certification and safety. Newer regulations combined with increasing demand to reduce fuel burn, emissions and noise are driving a need for improvements in icing simulation capability. To that end, this paper presents the results of additional ice accretion testing conducted in the NASA Icing Research Tunnel in January 2022 with a large swept wing section typical of a modern commercial transport. The model was based upon a section of the Common Research Model wing at the 64% semispan station with a streamwise chord length of 136 in. The test conditions were developed with an icing scaling analysis to generate similar conditions for a small median volumetric diameter (MVD) = 25 μm cloud and a large MVD = 110 μm cloud. A series of tests were conducted over a range of total temperature from -23.8 ˚C to -1.4 ˚C with all other conditions held constant. Another series of tests explored cloud MVD variations from 50 μm to 230 μm while holding constant certain scaling parameters. The variation in ice mass and scanned ice volume across repeat conditions was approximately 50% lower than the uncertainty in the cloud MVD and liquid water content. The measured ice mass and volume calculated from the 3D scans were used to compute the mass to volume ratio that is sometimes referred to as ice density or void fraction. When the ice volume based on the ice shape maximum combined cross section was used to determine this ratio, the resulting values were in the range of 240 to 455 kg/m 3 . This is consistent with analogous values previously reported in the literature. The ice shape mass and volume increased with MVD from 50 to 230 μm at fixed values of the scaling parameters. The ice mass to volume ratio was approximately constant for all of the cases which showed that the accreted mass and volume increased at approximately the same rate. These results demonstrate the significance of cloud MVD on ice shape mass and volume.

Ice accretion, Large drops, Wind tunnel↗

A buoyancy–shear–drag-based turbulence model for Rayleigh–Taylor, reshocked Richtmyer–Meshkov, and Kelvin–Helmholtz mixing

A phenomenological turbulence model for Rayleigh–Taylor, reshocked Richtmyer–Meshkov, and Kelvin–Helmholtz instability-induced mixing is developed using a general buoyancy–shear–drag model. Analytic solutions to the simplified model equations corresponding to each instability are derived separately, which are then used to calibrate the model coefficients to predict specific values of the mixing layer growth parameters and exponents. The buoyancy-shear–drag equations for the bubble and spike mixing layer widths are then solved numerically, and a turbulent diffusivity (or viscosity) is constructed dimensionally as the product of the mixing layer width, h, and its time-derivative, dh/dt. Surrogate turbulent fields are then constructed by multiplying a presumed, approximate self-similar spatial profile by appropriate functions of h and dh/dt. Using several simplifying approximations, the turbulent diffusion equations satisfied by the mean mass fraction and mean shear velocity are solved analytically in a reference frame moving with the mean advection velocity, and it is shown that the mean fields evolve in space and time as expected. The explicit modeling and solution of turbulent transport equations (e.g., for the turbulent kinetic energy and its dissipation rate or a lengthscale) are not required. By using separate equations for the bubble and spike evolution, the model naturally captures the asymmetry induced by an increasing density contrast between the heavy and light fluids. The model also includes molecular dissipation and diffusion, and therefore, can describe transition to fully-developed turbulence if the initial turbulent diffusivity/viscosity is much smaller than the molecular diffusivity/viscosity. This model is applied to constant-acceleration Rayleigh–Taylor, impulsively reshocked Richtmyer–Meshkov, and variable-density Kelvin–Helmholtz mixing layers to demonstrate its utility. It is shown that the numerical solutions of the model calibrated using specific values of the instability growth parameters and exponents: (1) produces mixing layer widths in agreement with the expected self-similar growth power laws; (2) gives spatiotemporal profiles of turbulent fields that are expected and consistent with previous results; (3) predicts the expected power-law growths and decays of the spatially-integrated turbulent fields, and; (4) gives spatiotemporal profiles of the mean fields that are expected and consistent with previous results. This relatively simple model can be implemented numerically, and is expected to be useful for fundamental as well as astrophysical and inertial confinement fusion applications.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Comparing NASA and ESA Cost Estimating Methods for Human Missions to Mars

To compare working methodologies between the cost engineering functions in NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) and ESA European Space Research and Technology Centre (ESTEC), as well as to set-up cost engineering capabilities for future manned Mars projects and other studies which involve similar subsystem technologies in MSFC and ESTEC, a demonstration cost estimate exercise was organized. This exercise was a direct way of enhancing not only cooperation between agencies but also both agencies commitment to credible cost analyses. Cost engineers in MSFC and ESTEC independently prepared life-cycle cost estimates for a reference human Mars project and subsequently compared the results and estimate methods in detail. As a non-sensitive, public domain reference case for human Mars projects, the Mars Direct concept was chosen. In this paper the results of the exercise are shown; the differences and similarities in estimate methodologies, philosophies, and databases between MSFC and ESTEC, as well as the estimate results for the Mars Direct concept. The most significant differences are explained and possible estimate improvements identified. In addition, the Mars Direct plan and the extensive cost breakdown structure jointly set-up by MSFC and ESTEC for this concept are presented. It was found that NASA applied estimate models mainly based on historic Apollo and Space Shuttle cost data, taking into account the changes in technology since then. ESA used models mostly based on European satellite and launcher cost data, taking into account the higher equipment and testing standards for human space flight. Most of NASA's and ESA s estimates for the Mars Direct case are comparable, but there are some important, consistent differences in the estimates for: 1) Large Structures and Thermal Control subsystems; 2) System Level Management, Engineering, Product Assurance and Assembly, Integration and Test/Verification activities; 3) Mission Control; 4) Space Agency Program Level activities.

Hunt, Charles D.↗