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Development of Analysis Methods that Integrate Numeric and Textual Equipment Reliability Data

Within the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program, the Risk-Informed Systems Analysis (RISA) Pathway is performing collaborative research on the development and deployment of technologies designed to assist operating nuclear power plants (NPPs) to reduce operating costs improve plant reliability and availability. One of the RISA research areas is focusing on the development of methods and tools designed to optimize plant operations (e.g., maintenance/replacement schedules, optimal maintenance postures for plant structures, systems, and components [SSCs]) in a manner that is more cost effective than current approaches and makes better use of available SSC health data. The Risk-Informed Asset Management (RIAM) project targets this research area by creating a direct bridge between component equipment reliability (ER) data and system engineer decision making regarding maintenance activity scheduling and component aging management. In this respect, one challenge that NPP system engineers are facing is that the amount of ER data being continuously generated is not only extremely large in size, but it comes in different forms: textual (e.g., condition or maintenance reports) and numeric (e.g., generated by monitoring systems). All these data elements provide them with valuable insights and information regarding: 1) the discovery of anomalous behaviors or degradation trends, 2) the identification of the possible causes behind such behaviors/trends, and 3) the prediction of their direct consequences. However, several challenges have proved to be roadblocks to this process. While some of these challenges are technical in nature (i.e., data are often distributed over several physical servers/databases), others are conceptual in nature: data elements come in different formats (e.g., numeric or textual), and measured values have different scales (e.g., vibration spectra and oil temperature). The activities performed by the RIAM project during FY23 directly tackles the need to simultaneously integrate the analysis of ER data in all its forms, numeric and textual. Note that such task has never been performed before due to the complexity of the systems under consideration but, most importantly, because of the technical challenges behind the harmonization of ER data formats and the lack of adequate computational methods to analyze them. Our approach borrows ideas and concepts from the medical field where integration of several data sources is vital to assist medical practitioners to perform correct diagnosis and indicate optimal treatments. In our view a NPP asset is equivalent to a patient in a medical context. The main difference is the complexity of a human body is a magnitude more complex when compared to typical assets commonly present in NPPs (e.g., centrifugal pumps, or motor operated valves). This simplifies our first requirement when analyzing heterogenous ER data formats: to put data into “context”. Context is here intended as the additional piece of information that is needed by ER data analysis tools to understand what these data elements are referring to, i.e., which king of knowledge they are generating. In our context, this knowledge can be translated into models that capture the form and functional architecture of assets/systems, their dependencies, and how they interact. These models actually emulate the knowledge that that NPP system engineers possess about assets and systems; this is their key of success when analyzing ER data, their challenge is ability to handle large amount of data. Here, we employ model-based system engineering (MBSE) models of systems and assets to represent and capture their architecture and functional, i.e. cause-effect, relations. Then, ER data elements are processed by identifying first of all which elements of the developed MBSE elements they are referring to. For numeric ER data this task is fairly easy since it is possible to precisely pinpoint what MBSE elements the corresponding sensor are observing (e.g., bearing temperature of a centrifugal pump). Task is much harder for textual data since the information contained in issue or maintenance reports needs to “be understood” by a computational tool. Here we called this process as “knowledge extraction”. Once again, we borrow the experience in the medical field where methods to extract knowledge from textual data have been developed in the past decade. The missing element for us is the availability of a complete dictionary of NPP related concepts (in addition to the MBSE models presented earlier) that can put “text into context”. In FY23, such dictionary has been developed along with all the computational elements required for knowledge extraction. Lastly, once numeric and textual ER data elements have been processed and “understood”, then the last step is the discovery of possible cause-effect relations among them. This is performed by observing if a logical connection through the MBSE models exists, and if the

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

High Performance Teams Enable Mission Success for SRNL - 16363

The accomplishment of the DOE EM mission of cleaning up the radioactive waste generated as a byproduct of the development and maintenance of nuclear materials over the last 60 years is a daunting task. SRNL specializes in working directly with the 'owners' of the cleanup challenges to identify the desired outcome and develop a solution that can be put into practice. 'We put science to work' is not just a 'tag line' rather it is a concise statement of our values and approach to applying science and engineering to the cleanup objectives. The management of radioactive waste poses multi-decade challenges to DOE EM and the Nation. The ability to harness the depth of knowledge, experience, expertise and passion for safely and effectively solving the technical challenges has reached a critical junction. Perhaps too late to be a natural and organic transition the industry finds itself critically devoid of resources to effectively and efficiently keep focused on the highest order task: cleanup. When project managers plan the resources necessary to perform the planned scope they typically are focused on financial, human, and industrial resources that would be beneficial to project execution. The critical shortage we will be evaluating is experienced and skilled leaders, mentors and coaches in the workforce. The production of educated scientists and engineers is a primary focus at all levels of educational institutions with Science Technology Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) focused curricula beginning in elementary school. The need for leaders who are skilled in inspiring organizational creativity, adept in harnessing and focusing individual energy while effectively communicating to the work force and the clientele equally compelling messages, has never been greater, or their absence in the workforce more ominous. Managers trained in the classical management theory (insert references here) are aging out of the workforce. In many cases these managers have not retained close connection to advancements in their primary field of study but rather have succumbed to the administrivia burdens that typify highly regulated work. The current technically trained workforce while interested in the 'perks' of management (i.e. visibility, pay increases, advancing status) are driven to keep close connection to their technical 'roots' as a fall-back plan should they need to change their career path either by choice or necessity. The challenge is how to achieve the productive hum of a finely tuned organizational model that blends executive vision and drive with technical leadership and excellence in execution. If any of these three tenets of a high performance team falters the ability to recover erodes the performance of the team and begins to weaken the cultural foundation essential to sustaining high performance work teams. At SRNL, recognition of the need to adapt the management dynamics and the business model and to harness the energy of the workforce to sustain - and in fact increase - the level of performance is a driving force in the transformation of the organization. Examples of changes in organizations structure, business systems and employee engagement are discussed as they relate to the impact on accomplishing the cleanup mission and fostering the next generation of great leaders and innovators. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Evaluating the potential of short-term instrument deployment to improve distributed wind resource assessment

Distributed wind projects, which are connected at the distribution level of an electricity system or in off-grid applications to serve specific or local energy needs, often rely solely on wind resource models to establish wind speed and energy generation expectations. Historically, anemometer loan programs have provided an affordable avenue for more accurate onsite wind resource assessment, and the lowering cost of lidar systems has shown similar advantages for more recent assessments. While a full 12 months of onsite wind measurement is the standard for correcting model-based long-term wind speed estimates for utility-scale wind farms, the time and capital investment involved in gathering onsite measurements must be reconciled with the energy needs and funding opportunities that drive expedient deployment of distributed wind projects. Much literature exists to quantify the performance of correcting long-term wind speed estimates with 1 or more years of observational data, but few studies explore the impacts of correcting with months-long observational periods. This study aims to answer the question of how short you can go in terms of the observational time period needed to make impactful improvements to model-based long-term wind speed estimates. Three algorithms, multivariable linear regression, adaptive regression splines, and regression trees, are evaluated for their skill at correcting long-term wind resource estimates from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis version 5 (ERA5) using months-long periods of observational data from 66 locations across the US. On average, correction with even 1 month of observations provides significant improvement over the baseline ERA5 wind speed estimates and produces median bias magnitudes and relative errors within 0.22 m s −1 and 4 percentage points of the median bias magnitudes and relative errors achieved using the standard 12 months of data for correction. However, in cases when the shortest observational periods (1 to 2 months) used for correction are not well correlated with the overlapping ERA5 reference, the resultant long-term wind speed errors are worse than those produced using ERA5 without correction. Summer months, which are characterized by weaker relative wind speeds and standard deviations for most of the evaluation sites, tend to produce the worst results for long-term correction using months-long observations. The three tested algorithms perform similarly for long-term wind speed bias; however, regression trees perform notably worse than multivariable linear regression and adaptive regression splines in terms of correlation when using 6 months or less of observational data for correction. Translating the analysis to wind energy, median relative errors in the capacity factor are on average within 10 % using 1 month of training. If the observation period used for correction is not well correlated with the reference data, however, misrepresentation of the observed capacity factor can be substantial. The risk associated with poor correlation between the observed and reference datasets decreases with increasing training period length. In the worst-correlation scenarios, the median capacity factor relative errors from using 1, 3, and 6 months are within 47 %, 26 %, and 16 %, respectively.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

National Spherical Torus eXperiment - Upgrade NSTX-U: Structural Analysis of Passive Plates Support Brackets

The objective of this analysis is to estimate and assess the stresses in the passive plates caused by a limiting plasma disruption. The objective of this calculation is also to address observed damage to mounting hardware after completion of NSTX operation. These observations initiated diagnostic efforts during the Upgrade project to monitor the severity of the disruptions that were causing the damage, and planned instrumentation to trend the behavior of the mounting hardware. The Recovery Project mission for the passive plate hardware is to appropriately reinforce the passive plates with stainless steel ribs mounted on the back of the plate to reduce their flexure and stress and reinforcements of the “biscuit” components of the bracketry to transfer loads without damage to bolts, biscuits, and bracket plates and welds. Mid-plane disruptions and quenches were manageable with NSTX vintage hardware. The Vertical Displacement Event (VDE) disruptions position the plasma closer to the passive plates and are more severe than the centered plasma. Earlier work pointed to the P1-P5 VDE as limiting. This has been confirmed by A. Brooks work in support of the load generation effort in reference. During vertical displacement large counter currents are generated in the plate as the plasma approaches it. - as would be expected from passive plates. When the plasma disrupts the currents in the plates are reversed, which also reverses the loading on the plates. This report documents the methodology and results of transient structural analysis on the plasma, passive plates support brackets. The loads induced by eddy and halo currents have been considered, and were generated using a separate electromagnetic analysis (NSTXU_1_11_2_1_CALC_051). The structural model also incorporates the effects from preload. Calculation was performed with the assumption that existing biscuits are not participating in the load bearing except the biscuits connected to jumper bolts, which are fully engaged. Results show that with the planned reinforcements, Passive plates and mounting structures satisfy static and fatigue criteria in all areas except welds, where separate analysis was performed. Both symmetric and asymmetric (with locating block) designs were analyzed, and although stresses were higher without locating block they still satisfy NSTX design criteria.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Production of Lightning NO(x) and its Vertical Distribution Calculated from 3-D Cloud-scale Chemical Transport Model Simulations

A 3-D cloud scale chemical transport model that includes a parameterized source of lightning NO(x), based on observed flash rates has been used to simulate six midlatitude and subtropical thunderstorms observed during four field projects. Production per intracloud (P(sub IC) and cloud-to-ground (P(sub CG)) flash is estimated by assuming various values of P(sub IC) and P(sub CG) for each storm and determining which production scenario yields NO(x) mixing ratios that compare most favorably with in-cloud aircraft observations. We obtain a mean P(sub CG) value of 500 moles NO (7 kg N) per flash. The results of this analysis also suggest that on average, P(sub IC) may be nearly equal to P(sub CG), which is contrary to the common assumption that intracloud flashes are significantly less productive of NO than are cloud-to-ground flashes. This study also presents vertical profiles of the mass of lightning NO(x), after convection based on 3-D cloud-scale model simulations. The results suggest that following convection, a large percentage of lightning NO(x), remains in the middle and upper troposphere where it originated, while only a small percentage is found near the surface. The results of this work differ from profiles calculated from 2-D cloud-scale model simulations with a simpler lightning parameterization that were peaked near the surface and in the upper troposphere (referred to as a "C-shaped" profile). The new model results (a backward C-shaped profile) suggest that chemical transport models that assume a C-shaped vertical profile of lightning NO(x) mass may place too much mass neat the surface and too little in the middle troposphere.

Ott, Lesley↗

BSEC flux towers: CSAT3B and TRH

The data were collected as part of the BSEC project, during the period from June 2025 to May 2026. Directory "broadway" contains data collected on a multi-level flux tower (US-BWf) in the Broadway East neighborhood (1808 North Patterson Park Ave., Baltimore City, MD 21213; LAT: 39o18'40.31'' N; LONG: 76o35'12.43'' W). At each of the four measurement heights (8.5 m, 11.1 m, 13.4 m, 15.9 m), a Campbell Scientific CSAT3B sonic anemometer was operated at 50 Hz to measure virtual temperature (tc) and three velocity components (u: 270 degrees; v: 180 degrees; w: vertical), and a RM Young temperature sensor (model 41382VC) was operated at 1 Hz inside a compact aspirated radiation shield (model 43502) to measure absolute temperature (T) and relative humidity (RH). Inside directory "broadway", directory "netcdf" contains data collected each day in 5-minute chunks that have been converted to NetCDF format (before quality checking), while "4hr" contains data arranged into 4-hour chunks (also in NetCDF format) that have been through basic quality checking steps (treating data points with nonzero diagnostic codes as missing data; fixing six or fewer consecutive missing data points using linear interpolation). Users are recommended to start with data in directory "4hr", while data in directory "netcdf" can be used for reference purposes.

Baltimore↗

WE-DE-BRA-04: A Cost-Effective Pixelated EPID Scintillator for Enhanced Contrast and DQE

Purpose: Beams-eye-view imaging applications such as real-time soft-tissue motion estimation and MV-CBCT are hindered by the inherently low image contrast of electronic portal imaging devices (EPID) currently in clinical use. We investigate a cost effective scintillating glass that provides substantially increased detective quantum efficiency (DQE) and contrast to noise ratio (CNR). Methods: A pixelated scintillator prototype was built from LKH-5 glass. The array is 12mm thick; 42.4×42.4cm2 wide and features 1.51mm pixel pitch with 20µm separation (glue+septa). The LKH-5 array was mounted on the active matrix flat panel imager (AMPFI) of an AS-1200 (Varian) with the GdO2S2:Tb removed. A second AS-1200 was utilized as reference detector. The prototype EPID was characterized in terms of CNR, modulation transfer function (MTF) and DQE. Additionally, the visibility of various fiducial markers typically used in the clinic as well as a realistic 3D-printed lung tumor model was assessed. All items were placed in a 12cm thick solid water phantom. CNR is estimated using a Las Vegas contrast phantom, presampled MTF is estimated using a slanted slit technique and the DQE is calculated from measured normalized noise power spectra (NPS) and the MTF. Results: DQE(0) for the LKH-5 prototype increased by a factor of 8× to about 10%, compared to the AS-1200 equipped with its standard GdO2S2:Tb scintillator. CNR increased by a factor of 5.3×. Due to the pixel size the MTF50 decreased by about 55% to 0.23lp/mm. The visibility of all fiducial markers as well as the tumor model were however markedly improved in comparison to an acquisition with the same parameters using the GdO2S2:Tb scintillator. Conclusion: LKH-5 scintillating glasses allow the cost effective construction of thick pixelated scintillators for portal imaging which can yield a substantial increase in DQE and CNR. Soft tissue and fiducial marker visibility was found to be markedly improved. The project was supported in part by NIH grant R01CA188446-01 and a grant from Varian Medical Systems.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Assessing mean climate change signals in the global CORDEX-CORE ensemble

The new Coordinated Output for Regional Evaluations (CORDEX-CORE) ensemble provides high-resolution, consistent regional climate change projections for the major inhabited areas of the world. It serves as a solid scientific basis for further research related to vulnerability, impact, adaptation and climate services in addition to existing CORDEX simulations. The aim of this study is to investigate and document the climate change information provided by the CORDEX-CORE simulation ensemble, as a part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) CORDEX community. An overview of the annual and monthly mean climate change information in selected regions in different CORDEX domains is presented for temperature and precipitation, providing the foundation for detailed follow-up studies and applications. Initially, two regional climate models (RCMs), REMO and RegCM were used to downscale global climate model output. The driving simulations by AR5 global climate models (AR5-GCMs) were selected to cover the spread of high, medium, and low equilibrium climate sensitivity at a global scale. The CORDEX-CORE ensemble has doubled the spatial resolution compared to the previously existing CORDEX simulations in most of the regions (25 $\,\mathrm {km}$ (0.22 $^{\circ }$ /jats:inline-formula>) versus 50 $\,\mathrm {km}$ (0.44 $^{\circ }$ )) leading to a potentially improved representation of, e.g., physical processes in the RCMs. The analysis focuses on changes in the IPCC physical climate reference regions. The results show a general reasonable representation of the spread of the temperature and precipitation climate change signals of the AR5-GCMs by the CORDEX-CORE simulations in the investigated regions in all CORDEX domains by mostly covering the AR5 interquartile range of climate change signals. The simulated CORDEX-CORE monthly climate change signals mostly follow the AR5-GCMs, although for specific regions they show a different change in the course of the year compared to the AR5-GCMs, especially for RCP8.5, which needs to be investigated further in region specific process studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

MANTA. An Integral Reactor Physics Experiment to Infer the Neutron Capture Cross Sections of Actinides and Fission Products in Fast and Epithermal Spectra

Neutron cross-sections characterize the way neutrons interact with matter. They are essential to most nuclear engineering projects and, even though theoretical progress has been made as far as the predictability of neutron cross-section models, measurements are still indispensable to meet tight design requirements for reduced uncertainties. Within the field of fission reactor technology, one can identify the following specializations that rely on the availability of accurate neutron cross-sections: (1) fission reactor design, (2) nuclear fuel cycles, (3) nuclear safety, (4) nuclear safeguards, (5) reactor monitoring and neutron fluence determination and (6) waste disposal and transmutation. In particular, the assessment of advanced fuel cycles requires an extensive knowledge of transuranics cross sections. Plutonium isotopes, but also americium, curium and up to californium isotope data are required with a small uncertainty in order to optimize significant features of the fuel cycle that have an impact on feasibility studies (e.g. neutron doses at fuel fabrication, decay heat in a repository, etc.). Different techniques are available to determine neutron cross sections experimentally, with the common denominator that a source of neutrons is necessary. It can either come from an accelerator that produces neutrons as a result of interactions between charged particles and a target, or it can come from a nuclear reactor. When the measurements are performed with an accelerator, they are referred to as differential since the analysis of the data provides the cross-sections for different discrete energies, i.e. σ(E i ), and for the diffusion cross sections for different discrete angles. Another approach is to irradiate a very pure sample in a test reactor such as the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) at INL and, after a given time, determine the amount of the different transmutation products. The precise characterization of the nuclide densities before and after neutron irradiation allows to infer energy-integrated neutron cross sections, i.e. ∫₀ ∞ σ(E)φ(E)dE, where φ(E) is the neutron flux “seen” by the sample. This approach, which is usually defined and led by reactor physicists, is referred to as integral and is the object of this report. These two sources of information, i.e. differential and integral, are complementary and are used by the nuclear physicists in charge of producing the evaluated nuclear data files used by the nuclear community (ENDF, JEFF…). The generation of accurate nuclear data files requires an iterative process involving reactor physicists and nuclear data evaluators. This experimental program has been funded by the ATR National Scientific User Facility (ATR-NSUF) and by the DOE Office of Science in the framework of the Recovery Act. It has been given the name MANTRA for Measurement of Actinides Neutron TRAnsmutation.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Substantial and overlooked greenhouse gas emissions from deep Arctic lake sediment - supporting data and code

This data package contains data, descriptions, and code-based analyses that were used to support conclusions drawn in “Substantial and overlooked greenhouse gas emissions from deep Arctic lake sediment”, by Freitas et al. (2025) (https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-024-01614-y). The study evaluated greenhouse gas production along a deep sediment core (20 m) taken in 2018 from below Goldstream Lake, a field site approximately 15 km north of Fairbanks, Alaska.The file “ESSDive_NFreitas_2024_flmd.csv” includes an overview of all other csv files in this data package, namely: sediment descriptions (depth and type of sediment), sediment characterizations (bulk density, gravimetric water content, total carbon, etc.), calculated respiration and temperature sensitivity values associated with year-long incubations of the sediment core, and the R code used to process the dataset. Additional details regarding the content of these files and how the calculations were performed are described in the Methods section of this archive. The “data_dictionary_ESSDive_NFreitas_2024_dd.csv” is a data dictionary for all files included in the data package. Each row in the data dictionary represents a column name in a given file. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska.Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).Data package updates- August 2024: Title was updated, R code now includes a process for calculating potential production across the whole sediment column, the "sediment_column_production_potentials_ESSDive_NFreitas_2024.csv" is the associated data output file, and the file level metadata and data dictionaries were updated to reflect the contents of the additional csv file.- October 2024: Title was updated, and a statement was added to Step 2 of the Methods that describes that samples were collected (and exported) in a responsible manner and in accordance with relevant permits and local laws.- January 2025: Updated the associated manuscript details in the Abstract (manuscript title, publication date, DOI link) and in the Related References section (full citation).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Efficient Modeling of Structural, Electronic, and Optical Properties of Silver and Gold Metal Nanoclusters and Alloys Using Optimized SCC-DFTB Parameters

Computation of optical properties using conventional time-dependent density functional theory (TD-DFT) is time-consuming and memory-intensive. In this study, we investigate the accuracy and efficiency of the density functional tight binding (DFTB) framework with newly optimized Slater–Koster (SK) parameters for modeling the structural, electronic properties, and absorption spectra of silver and gold nanoclusters and their alloys. Our investigation of the ground state (GS) properties demonstrates that the newly developed GS-SK parameters enable DFTB to closely approximate DFT-calculated bond lengths for octahedron, tetrahedron, icosahedra, and truncated octahedron with sizes Ag n /Au n (n = 19, 20, 38, 55), nanoclusters and Ag 20 /Au 20 nanoalloys, with a maximum deviation of approximately 0.15 Å. Formation energy results indicate that the GS-SK parameters can closely estimate changes in formation energies with alloy composition, and the comparison of electronic structures for Ag 20 , Au 20 , and AgAu alloy nanoclusters using the DFTB approximation reveals good agreement in the projected density of states (DOS) profiles and energy levels. A second set of SK parameters, ES-SK, has been developed to describe excited state (ES) properties, including the absorption spectra of silver octahedron Ag 19 , tetrahedral Ag n (n = 20, 56, 84), truncated octahedron Ag 38 , and icosahedra Ag 55 closed-shell clusters and their gold and alloy counterparts over a broad range of alloy compositions. This parametrization uses TD-DFTB calculations and fine-tunes the d and p eigenvalues by comparing them to reference absorption spectra from first-principles TD-DFT. This enables the generation of absorption spectra that closely match the reference spectra when plasmon excitation is dominant, as demonstrated by studying the plasmonic properties of icosahedral Ag n and Au n (n = 309 and 561) nanoparticles. This includes the rapid loss in plasmon quality when Au partially replaces Ag in alloy clusters. Furthermore, these results provide a foundation for addressing computational bottlenecks in plasmonics and with new prospects for applications in the quantum plasmonics for bimetallic alloys.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Pumped Storage Hydro Model Evaluation Report Task 1: Tool Assessment

Pumped storage hydro (PSH) projects support various aspects of power system operations. However, determining the value of PSH projects and the many services and contributions to the system they provide can be a challenge. The PSH techno-economic studies being carried out by a 5-lab consortium are defining extensive modeling approaches for evaluating the economic benefits of PSH projects. To enhance the impact of the valuation approach and follow-on techno-economic studies, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) will be developing a set of online tools that industry could adopt and use to advance PSH projects in the US. The problem is that the research team is not entirely clear on the features of the tools that would offer the most significant impact to industry. Thus, year one of this effort is designed to first define the needs of industry before developing the PSH valuation tool. The first step in defining industry needs is to evaluate existing tool packages, including those created by DOE and those by industry groups, to both measure usage levels and define tool attributes that maximize industry impact. The second step in this process will be to hold a workshop designed to elicit direct industry input. Given the breadth and nature of the task, which is to define ideal model attributes, the research team did not constrain the assessment to storage valuation tools. Several tools were assessed, and their characteristics compared against a list of “ideal” attributes that included ease of use, generalizability of results, and analytical flexibility. Information regarding usage and impact were then compared to specific model attributes to define which attributes appear to drive success. The following key lessons and implications can be drawn from the analysis: Models with high ease of use were often the most adopted by industry, though they did not necessarily have high publication reference records, meaning a published article made direct reference to the tool. For example, REScheck TM and COMcheck TM , two tools which share a site, have seen a high amount of web traffic and usage. Similarly, Storage Value Estimate Tool (StorageVET®), an energy storage valuation model, has a large number of organizations using it despite a low publication reference record. A common feature between these models is that they are web-hosted, theoretically making them more easily accessible with graphic user interfaces (GUIs) that are more navigable; Models with higher usage statistics were typically free and/or open source. While it may be unsurprising that this attribute could be considered a draw for users, there is the potential for overestimating the tool's value based on popularity due to the fact that some users may have used the model simply because it was free and not because it is the best model; Models that offer more in-depth analysis and a wide coverage of applications (e.g. VOLTTRON™, GridLAB-D™, and Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVest)) have shown a high number of publication references as well as showing a high number of downloads in the case of GridLAB-D™. It should be noted that the figure below does not include the model with the highest number of publication references (EnergyPlus™) as it has been removed to show clearer distinction between the remaining tools; The most popular model within the evaluation list was EnergyPlus™. This tool has the highest number of publication references (2,034) of all models considered and contains both a high ease of use level as well as broad application flexibility. Its high usage may be correlated, however, with the presumed wider audience conducting energy consumption modeling compared to the audiences for some of the other tools in this list; Models that were low in both general usage and publication reference generally did not exhibit characteristics considered ideal by the research team. Some of these models offered a narrower range of analytical applications or lower generalizability of results. This would automatically restrict the pool of potential users to those who fall within a narrow range of specific technologies or applications. This report also explores two model structures for the PSH tool: decision tree-based, which would guide the user through the valuation methods defined in the PSH techno-economic studies currently being carried out by DOE, and an all-inclusive comprehensive model. The strengths of each were explored and a hybrid approach was defined that would embed a price taker model into the decision tree approach. Such an approach would provide a comprehensive approach for modeling small-scale PSH while recognizing the challenges associated with implementing a price-maker approach in an all-inclusive model. Insight gained in this analysis of other models can aid in narrowing down the list of effective and sought-after attributes, and in defining model structure. Next steps toward developing a model for storage valuation will be to gain direct industry input through workshops.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Constructing an Educational Mars Simulation

Working in the Educational Programs Office, my task this summer is to model a 3D habitat that will be part of a future Mars base. With the President's charge to further explore mars by way of robotic-led and human-led missions, there has been a surge in the activity regarding the "red planet". Since all present designs are merely conjecture, I have some creative freedom in deciding what the habitat will look like. To get ideas for what a Mars habitat might be like, I looked at several references including websites and NASA documents. One of these was a NASA Technical Memorandum about Space Transportation Systems that I looked at to get insight on spaceship design. Information about the planet's environment, such as the gravity and the weather, is useful as well when designing the structure. The main software that I am using is Lightwave 3D and Modeler 7.5 that comes along with it. Lightwave is very complex in that it lets you model, surface, and animate so there was a lot to learn. To learn the software I watched a series of instructional videos, looked at online tutorials, and referenced several books. Modeling is like shaping clay with a computer. Every item modeled is made of smaller shapes called polygons. For example, each side of a box would be a different polygon. Modelers must be careful to design with users' systems in mind. Having a model made with too many polygons can slow down a walk-through, but it usually improves the small details on a model. Getting speed and quality proved tricky. An important thing for me to remember when modeling the habitat was to save space. Also, I must consider that technology in the future will be much different than now, so I must be especially creative. My project will be used in an educational walkthough simulation in which users can interact with the environment. I worked closely with intern Stephen Henke who built a Mars Rover, terrain and programmed code for the simulation. This summer's project will help me with future aspirations in computer graphics. Modeling is a valuable skill that I appreciate having the chance to learn and practice.

Henke, Stephen A.↗

Cloud-Based Numerical Weather Prediction for Near Real-Time Forecasting and Disaster Response

The use of cloud computing resources continues to grow within the public and private sector components of the weather enterprise as users become more familiar with cloud‐computing concepts, and competition among service providers continues to reduce costs and other barriers to entry. Cloud resources can also provide capabilities similar to high‐performance computing environments, supporting multi‐node systems required for near real‐time, regional weather predictions. Referred to as "Infrastructure as a Service", or IaaS, the use of cloud-based computing hardware in an on‐demand payment system allows for rapid deployment of a modeling system in environments lacking access to a large, supercomputing infrastructure. Use of IaaS capabilities to support regional weather prediction may be of particular interest to developing countries that have not yet established large supercomputing resources, but would otherwise benefit from a regional weather forecasting capability. Recently, collaborators from NASA Marshall Space Flight Center and Ames Research Center have developed a scripted, on‐demand capability for launching the NOAA/NWS Science and Training Resource Center (STRC) Environmental Modeling System (EMS), which includes pre‐compiled binaries of the latest version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The WRF‐EMS provides scripting for downloading appropriate initial and boundary conditions from global models, along with higher‐resolution vegetation, land surface, and sea surface temperature data sets provided by the NASA Short‐term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center. This presentation will provide an overview of the modeling system capabilities and benchmarks performed on the Amazon Elastic Compute Cloud (EC2) environment. In addition, the presentation will discuss future opportunities to deploy the system in support of weather prediction in developing countries supported by NASA's SERVIR Project, which provides capacity building activities in environmental monitoring and prediction across a growing number of regional hubs throughout the world. Capacity‐building applications that extend numerical weather prediction to developing countries are intended to provide near real‐time applications to benefit public health, safety, and economic interests, but may have a greater impact during disaster events by providing a source for local predictions of weather‐related hazards, or impacts that local weather events may have during the recovery phase.

Molthan, Andrew↗

The Pathway to a Safe and Effective Medication Formulary for Exploration Spaceflight

PURPOSE: Exploration space missions pose several challenges to providing a comprehensive medication formulary designed to accommodate the size and space limitations of the spacecraft; while addressing the individual medications needs and preferences of the Crew; the negative outcome of a degrading inventory over time, the inability to resupply before expiration dates; and the need to properly forecast the best possible medication candidates to treat conditions that will occur in the future. METHODS: The Pharmacotherapeutics Discipline has partnered with the Exploration Medical Capabilities (ExMC) Element to develop and propose a research pathway that is comprehensively focused on evidence-based models and theories, as well as on new diagnostic tools and treatments or preventive measures aimed at closure of the Med02 “Pharmacy” Gap; defined in the Human Research Program’s (HRP) risk-based research strategy. The Med02 Gap promotes the challenge to identify a strategy to ensure that medications used to treat medical conditions during exploration space missions are available, safe, and effective. It is abundantly clear that pharmaceutical intervention is an essential component of risk management planning for astronaut healthcare during exploration space. However, the quandary still remains of how to assemble a formulary that is comprehensive enough to prevent or treat anticipated medical events; and is also chemically stable, safe, and robust enough to have sufficient potency to last for the duration of an exploration space mission. In cases where that is not possible, addressing this Gap requires exploration of novel drug development techniques, dosage forms, and dosage delivery platforms that enhance chemical stability as well as therapeutic effectiveness. RESULTS: The proposed research pathway outlines the steps, processes, procedures, and a research portfolio aimed at identifying a capability that will provide a safe and effective pharmacy for any specific exploration Design Reference Mission (DRM). The proposed approach to building this research portfolio is to seek research projects that concentrate on four major focus areas; (1) Formulary selection, (2) Formulary potency and shelf life, (3) Formulary safety and toxicity, and (4) Novel technology and innovation such as portable real-time chemical analysis innovative drug therapies and dosage and delivery platforms. CONCLUSION: The research pathway has been completed and presented to the HRP. In spring 2017, it is scheduled to be reviewed by a panel of pharmaceutical and clinical experts that will evaluate the scientific merit and operational feasibility of the research pathway, as well as make suggestions for any warranted additions or improvements. Once finalized, the ExMC Element will proceed with the execution of this research pathway with the goal of gathering as much data, and learning as much as possible, to provide a safe and effective pharmaceutical formulary for use during exploration missions.

Daniels, V. R.↗

Multi-Formalism Modeling for Disaster Resilience, Forecasting, and Response

Disaster response preparedness, risk mitigation, and effective post-event response are critical for national security, public health, and economic integrity. For areas impacted by extreme events, timely and accurate impact assessments of lifeline infrastructures are critical. Traditional disaster management and situational awareness platforms are not capable of handling the massive influx of available information from traditional and non-traditional sources. Next-generation analytic assessment approaches, where use of dynamically sourced, heterogeneous data with near real-time availability are integrated into a continually-updated analytics framework. The objective of this research was to develop a foundational multi-formalism modeling platform to integrate novel data sources for use in improving situational awareness after a disaster event. Specifically, to 1) provide an architecture for machine-learning based data fusion various multi-sensor datasets; 2) classify, geolocate, and temporally bin novel data sources for use in spatially-enabled machine-learning based data fusion; and 3) derive confidence-based observation data with machine-learning based prediction to fill spatial and temporal observation gaps. This project developed a reusable cloud-based pipeline architecture for ingesting, storing, and analyzing relevant data, executing a range of deep-learning models, and visualize the information geographically. The pipeline development was informed by previous PNNL investments (StreamKit) and built upon leading-edge technologies consisting of: 1) a raw datastore; 2) a data enrichment pipeline with custom and third-party analytics; 3) enriched data storage; and 4) a custom UI to display the enriched data. Machine learning/deep learning models were selected and tested to classify social media images for relevancy and presence of flood waters. Our custom trained relevance models were run on a validation dataset and the overall accuracy of the relevance classifiers ranged from 65% to 90%. We found that convolutional neural network (CNN) models were both faster and more accurate than more traditional machine learning models. We applied the relevance classifier to remove non-relevant images and then undertook a limited training of CNN models to detect flood on ~1,800 labeled images. The testing accuracy of the flood detection models were ~88%. To improve the geographic location of both social media and oblique aerial images we tested a multi-step workflow built on a pre-trained deep-learning model. To identify similarity features from test and reference scenes, we applied the Xception and Faiss models to a set of test images with inaccurate spatial locations, as well and precisely-located reference scenes from the general area. Matching reference scenes to the test scenes with the closest similarity index had limited success in improving the precision of test scene location and additional methods have been identified for testing. Data fusion between authoritative geographic data (satellite imaging) and non-authoritative crowdsourced data is an underlying theme throughout this research and methods are tested bring these data to a common geographic form through feature matching and transformations. The automated extraction of supporting information for disaster response from oblique aerial images or ground-level social media images is accomplished through semantic image segmentation and transformation. The non-authoritative data are used to validate the authoritative data collections and processing and optionally, t+0 flood models. In addition, the common form geographic data are combined with other static landscape features to develop spatially-explicit training vectors used in deep generative statistical inference models to develop complex non-linear relationships in static and dynamic data and ultimately derive a spatially continuous and probabilistic assessment of flood damage with the event domain.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Accuracy Enhancement of Nuclear Power Plant Simulators Utilizing High Accuracy Simulation Predictions

More recently, reactor core simulators for core designs associated with commercial nuclear power plants that utilize what is believed to be higher fidelity models have been developed. Features such as neutronics models that utilize transport equation solvers with fine spatial meshes and many energy-groups, thermal-hydraulic models that utilize sub-channel solvers with fine spatial mesh and capable of treating a wide range of fluid conditions, and fuel-coolant chemistry interaction models capable of treating CRUD deposition are to be found in these higher fidelity core simulators. These reactor core simulators require access to higher performance computers, characterized by many processors, cores and large memory. So associated with utilization of these simulators is access to high performance computers and ability to accommodate in one’s workflow longer execution times. By contrast, currently used core simulators by the nuclear industry can execute on engineering workstations and have execution times of seconds to minutes. The desirability for having short execution times is not only desired for support of time critical tasks but supports the mental process of decision making by engineers. The goal of the work reported upon here has the objective of retaining the fidelity of higher fidelity models while retaining the ability to utilize engineering workstations. Beyond the core simulator goal, additional goals of this work include incorporating the just described core simulator capability into a Nuclear Steam Supply System (NSSS) simulator, and to incorporate the resulting capability into an environment supportive of design and operational decision making associated with nuclear power stations. The model selected for the core neutronics model is the NESTLE code, for the core thermal-hydraulic model is the CTF code utilizing coarse mesh, and for the NSSS model is the RELAP5-3D code. WSC’s proprietary 3KEYMASTERTM platform is being used to provide software coupling, user interface, visualization, and reporting. The NESTLE core neutronics simulator was first integrated with the CTF core thermal-hydraulic simulator using CTF developed communication commands which are also used for CTF to communicate with RELAP5-3D under WSC’s proprietary 3KEYMASTERTM platform. To assure NESTLE prediction consistency with higher fidelity core neutronic simulators, buffer codes have been created to automatically generate from output files written by the VERA core simulator the NESTLE nodal neutronic parameter’ library, geometry, and pin-power reconstruction input files, thereby avoiding a number of challenges associated with utilizing lattice physics codes and providing consistency with VERA predictions. To treat absorber rod effects a multi-set library is utilized, where a set refers to a specific absorber rod fully inserted pattern. A coarse spatial mesh CTF model was developed with features added that support using CTF as envisioned in the engineering quality simulator. A hybrid meshing approach was implemented to allow for automated construction of models with mixed levels of refinement. Specifically, a core model could resolve some assemblies at a nodal level (4 subchannels per assembly) and others at a pin-resolution (one subchannel per coolant subchannel in the assembly). The intention is that this will allow for better resolution of limiting conditions such as DNBR and PCT, which are based on local rod and subchannel conditions. Further development was done of features that enhance the capabilities for the envisioned engineering quality simulator that has been developed, but now for RELAP-3D. The RELAP5-3D code development includes ability to model more than 999 components and the addition of the cross-channels turbulence mixing model and the void drift model that are implemented in CTF, aiming to achieve closer prediction agreement of the two codes for transient simulations, specifically, more accurate matches of the overall mass, momentum, and energy exchanges of both the liquid and gas phases between the neighboring core assemblies. Graphics were also developed for the Instructor Station for this project under WSC’s proprietary 3KEYMASTERTM platform to facilitate design and operational decision making.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Effect of Two Advanced Noise Reduction Technologies on the Aerodynamic Performance of an Ultra High Bypass Ratio Fan

A wind tunnel experiment was conducted in the NASA Glenn Research Center anechoic 9- by 15-Foot Low-Speed Wind Tunnel to investigate two new advanced noise reduction technologies in support of the NASA Fundamental Aeronautics Program Subsonic Fixed Wing Project. The goal of the experiment was to demonstrate the noise reduction potential and effect on fan model performance of the two noise reduction technologies in a scale model Ultra-High Bypass turbofan at simulated takeoff and approach aircraft flight speeds. The two novel noise reduction technologies are called Over-the-Rotor acoustic treatment and Soft Vanes. Both technologies were aimed at modifying the local noise source mechanisms of the fan tip vortex/fan case interaction and the rotor wake-stator interaction. For the Over-the-Rotor acoustic treatment, two noise reduction configurations were investigated. The results showed that the two noise reduction technologies, Over-the-Rotor and Soft Vanes, were able to reduce the noise level of the fan model, but the Over-the-Rotor configurations had a significant negative impact on the fan aerodynamic performance; the loss in fan aerodynamic efficiency was between 2.75 to 8.75 percent, depending on configuration, compared to the conventional solid baseline fan case rubstrip also tested. Performance results with the Soft Vanes showed that there was no measurable change in the corrected fan thrust and a 1.8 percent loss in corrected stator vane thrust, which resulted in a total net thrust loss of approximately 0.5 percent compared with the baseline reference stator vane set.

Hughes, Christoper E.↗