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At least 1,261 records · Page 70

Propulsion-Airframe Integration for Conceptual Redesign of a Low-Boom Supersonic Transport

A low-boom supersonic transport was designed for a cruise Mach of 1.7 and 40 passengers. This low-boom aircraft, referred to as the Mach 1.7 40-PAX concept, was generated using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) based sonic boom analysis at the start of overland cruise (SOC). The engine for the Mach 1.7 40-PAX concept was designed using the Numerical Propulsion System Simulation (NPSS) and modeled as a flow-through nacelle for CFD analysis. To understand how the engine plume affects the undertrack ground signature, the Mach 1.7 40-PAX concept is redesigned using an aeropropulsive CFD simulation. A process is developed for approximation of the NPSS engine at SOC by a CFD engine for aeropropulsive CFD simulation. The generated CFD engine has the identical nozzle boundary conditions and approximately the same mass flow and thrust as those of the NPSS engine at SOC. Then, the configuration with the CFD engines is optimized to approximately restore the low-boom characteristics of the Mach 1.7 40-PAX concept. Finally, the CFD simulation data for the optimized concept with the CFD engines is used to calibrate the low-fidelity aerodynamic analyses for mission analysis of this concept. The cyclic dependency of the involved disciplinary analyses is resolved using an iteration method for a consistent coupling of the mission analysis, NPSS engine analysis, and low-boom redesign using the aeropropulsive CFD simulation. This low-boom redesign study is used as an example to demonstrate how the propulsion-airframe integration could be implemented for conceptual design of low-boom supersonic transports.

Low-boom supersonic transport↗

Propulsion-Airframe Integration for Conceptual Redesign of a Low-Boom Supersonic Transport

A low-boom supersonic transport was designed for a cruise Mach of 1.7 and 40 passengers. This low-boom aircraft, referred to as the Mach 1.7 40-PAX concept, was generated using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) based sonic boom analysis at the start of overland cruise (SOC). The engine for the Mach 1.7 40-PAX concept was designed using the Numerical Propulsion System Simulation (NPSS) and modeled as a flow-through nacelle for CFD analysis. To understand how the engine plume affects the undertrack ground signature, the Mach 1.7 40-PAX concept is redesigned using an aeropropulsive CFD simulation. A process for approximation of the NPSS engine at SOC by a CFD engine is developed. The generated CFD engine has the identical nozzle boundary conditions and approximately the same mass flow and thrust as those of the NPSS engine at SOC. Then, the configuration with the CFD engines is optimized to approximately restore the low-boom characteristics of the Mach 1.7 40-PAX concept. Finally, the CFD simulation data for the optimized concept with the CFD engines is used to calibrate the low-fidelity aerodynamic analyses for mission analysis of this concept. The cyclic dependency of the involved disciplinary analyses is resolved using an iteration method for a consistent coupling of the mission analysis, NPSS engine analysis, and low-boom redesign using the aeropropulsive CFD simulation. This low-boom redesign study is used as an example to demonstrate how the propulsion-airframe integration could be implemented for conceptual design of low-boom supersonic transports.

Low-boom supersonic transport↗

Propulsion-Airframe Integration for Conceptual Redesign of a Low-Boom Supersonic Transport

A low-boom supersonic transport was generated in a previous low-boom multidisciplinary optimization (MDO) study that used computational fluid dynamics (CFD) off-body pressure to compute the undertrack sonic boom ground signature and calibrated low-fidelity aerodynamics analyses to compute the mission performance metrics. This low-boom aircraft, referred to as the Mach 1.7 40-PAX concept, can carry 40 passengers for a low-boom overland mission with cruise Mach 1.7 for the airport pairs over the continental US and has the potential to achieve an undertrack sonic boom ground noise level below 70 perceived level of decibels at the start of overland cruise (SOC). The engine for the Mach 1.7 40-PAX concept was designed using the Numerical Propulsion System Simulation (NPSS) for the mission analysis and modeled as a flow-through nacelle for CFD-based sonic boom analysis. To understand how the engine plume affects the undertrack ground signature, the Mach 1.7 40-PAX concept is redesigned in this paper after replacing the flow-through nacelles by CFD engines for sonic boom analysis using aeropropulsive CFD simulation. A process is developed for approximation of the NPSS engine at SOC by a CFD engine for aeropropulsive CFD simulation. The generated CFD engine has the identical nozzle boundary conditions and approximately the same mass flow and thrust as those of the NPSS engine at SOC. Then, the outer mold line of the configuration with the CFD engines is redesigned to approximately restore the low-boom characteristics of the Mach 1.7 40-PAX concept at SOC. Finally, the CFD simulation data for the redesigned concept with the CFD engines is used to calibrate the low-fidelity aerodynamic analyses for mission analysis of this concept. The cyclic dependency of the involved disciplinary analyses is resolved using an iteration method for a consistent coupling of the mission analysis, NPSS engine analysis, and low-boom redesign using the aeropropulsive CFD simulation. This low-boom redesign study is used as an example to demonstrate how the propulsion-airframe integration could be implemented for conceptual design of supersonic transports that satisfy both the low-boom and mission performance requirements.

Low-boom supersonic transport↗

Experiments on the Assimilation of Patches of Data Using a Barotropic Model

Experiments were performed to examine the impact of adopting various procedures in the assimilation of patches of data during the progress of a numerical forecast. A barotropic model described by Takacs and Balgovind, 1983 is used for the experiments. The model is global and its discretization is similar to the GLA Fourth Order GCM. The effect of orography is included in the model. The experiments are of an identical twin kind. The nature run starts from global fields of wind (u and v) and height (h) at 300 mb. They are real data of January, 1979 OOZ which were interpolated from the adjacent sigma levels of the GLA GCM and then balanced by the bounded derivative method. From this initial state a 6 day forecast is performed. At intervals of 3 hours this information is saved over sectors of 60 width in longitude, from the south pole to the north pole, to simulate data coverage and observational frequency of a polar orbiting satellite.

Semazzi, F. H. M.↗

Identification of differences between finite element analysis and experimental vibration data

An important problem that has emerged from combined analytical/experimental investigations is the task of identifying and quantifying the differences between results predicted by F.E. analysis and results obtained from experiment. The objective of this study is to extend and evaluate the procedure developed by Sidhu for correlation of linear F.E. and modal test data to include structures with viscous damping. The desirability of developing this procedure is that the differences are identified in terms of physical mass, damping, and stiffness parameters instead of in terms of frequencies and modes shapes. Since the differences are computed in terms of physical parameters, locations of modeling problems can be directly identified in the F.E. model. From simulated data it was determined that the accuracy of the computed differences increases as the number of experimentally measured modes included in the calculations is increased. When the number of experimental modes is at least equal to the number of translational degrees of freedom in the F.E. model both the location and magnitude of the differences can be computed very accurately. When the number of modes is less than this amount the location of the differences may be determined even though their magnitudes will be under estimated.

Lawrence, C.↗

Identification of differences between finite element analysis and experimental vibration data

An important problem that has emerged from combined analytical/experimental investigations is the task of identifying and quantifying the differences between results predicted by F.E. analysis and results obtained from experiment. The objective of this study is to extend and evaluate the procedure developed by Sidhu for correlation of linear F.E. and modal test data to include structures with viscous damping. The desirability of developing this procedure is that the differences are identified in terms of physical mass, damping, and stiffness parameters instead of in terms of frequencies and modes shapes. Since the differences are computed in terms of physical parameters, locations of modeling problems can be directly identified in the F.E. model. From simulated data it was determined that the accuracy of the computed differences increases as the number of experimentally measured modes included in the calculations is increased. When the number of experimental modes is at least equal to the number of translational degrees of freedom in the F.E. model both the location and magnitude of the differences can be computed very accurately. When the number of modes is less than this amount the location of the differences may be determined even though their magnitudes will be underestimated.

Lawrence, Charles↗

More Data Needed for Failure Rate Estimation, Validation, and Uncertainty Reduction

The currently planned schedule for advanced Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) development and test activities to support human exploration missions is unlikely to generate sufficient data to enable statistically-supportable, precise Orbital Replacement Unit (ORU) failure rate estimates to meet existing crew safety expectations. Accurate and precise failure rate estimates are critical for missions beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO) because current risk mitigation approaches –namely regular resupply and rapid abort capabilities –will not be available. Safe operations will depend on mission planners’ ability to accurately forecast spares demand and efficiently provide the necessary resources. However, even after more than a decade of International Space Station (ISS) ECLSS operations, a significant amount of uncertainty remains in failure rate estimates. Uncertain or inaccurate failure rates result in increased risk and spares mass. A Bayesian estimation approach, such as the one currently implemented by the ISS Program, can reduce uncertainty by incorporating engineering judgement into failure rate estimates. However, experience on the ISS and with other complex systems shows that these prior failure rate estimates are often inaccurate. In addition, prior estimates are typically point values; some level of uncertainty must be added to convert these into probability distributions for Bayesian updating, and there are several potential methods for doing so. Due to the low rate of data collection, any inaccuracy in theseprior estimates currently hasa strong influence on the end result. This paper examines the challenges associated with failure rate estimation, validation, and uncertainty reduction in the context of ECLSS development for beyond-LEO missions. A variety of techniques for generating and updating Bayesian priors are discussed and evaluated using both real-world and simulated data. Potential solutions for improving failure rate estimation, including testing additional units, are analyzed and discussed, and a set of recommendations are provided for next-generation system development activities.

Reliability↗

More Data Needed for Failure Rate Estimation, Validation, and Uncertainty Reduction

The currently planned schedule for advanced Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) development and test activities to support human exploration missions is unlikely to generate sufficient data to enable statistically-supportable, precise Orbital Replacement Unit (ORU) failure rate estimates to meet existing crew safety expectations. Accurate and precise failure rate estimates are critical for missions beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO) because current risk mitigation approaches –namely regular resupply and rapid abort capabilities –will not be available. Safe operations will depend on mission planners’ ability to accurately forecast spares demand and efficiently provide the necessary resources. However, even after more than a decade of International Space Station (ISS) ECLSS operations, a significant amount of uncertainty remains in failure rate estimates. Uncertain or inaccurate failure rates result in increased risk and spares mass. A Bayesian estimation approach, such as the one currently implemented by the ISS Program, can reduce uncertainty by incorporating engineering judgement into failure rate estimates. However, experience on the ISS and with other complex systems shows that these prior failure rate estimates are often inaccurate. In addition, prior estimates are typically point values; some level of uncertainty must be added to convert these into probability distributions for Bayesian updating, and there are several potential methods for doing so. Due to the low rate of data collection, any inaccuracy in theseprior estimates currently hasa strong influence on the end result. This paper examines the challenges associated with failure rate estimation, validation, and uncertainty reduction in the context of ECLSS development for beyond-LEO missions. A variety of techniques for generating and updating Bayesian priors are discussed and evaluated using both real-world and simulated data. Potential solutions for improving failure rate estimation, including testing additional units, are analyzed and discussed, and a set of recommendations are provided for next-generation system development activities.

Reliability↗

U.S. Patent Pending, Information Security Analysis Using Game Theory and Simulation, U.S. Patent Application No.: 14/097,840

Vulnerability in security of an information system is quantitatively predicted. The information system may receive malicious actions against its security and may receive corrective actions for restoring the security. A game oriented agent based model is constructed in a simulator application. The game ABM model represents security activity in the information system. The game ABM model has two opposing participants including an attacker and a defender, probabilistic game rules and allowable game states. A specified number of simulations are run and a probabilistic number of the plurality of allowable game states are reached in each simulation run. The probability of reaching a specified game state is unknown prior to running each simulation. Data generated during the game states is collected to determine a probability of one or more aspects of security in the information system.

Availablity↗

Regularized Differentiation for Bioburden Density Estimation in Planetary Protection

In this paper, we propose and investigate the performance of two novel shrinkage estimators for bioburden density estimation in planetary protection. The estimators are based on the regularized differentiation of a cumulative count of colony forming units collected throughout the data collecting session or the life cycle of the entire mission. The regularized differentiation recasts the problem of bioburden density estimation as a linear least squares problem. The least squares problem is then solved through regularization techniques, such as truncated singular value decomposition and penalized least squares. The regularization is necessary to avoid noise amplification during the differentiation of noisy data. The two regularization estimators are compared with four other commonly used estimators to simultaneously evaluate the means of multivariable independent Poisson distributions: the maximum likelihood, noninformative Bayes estimator with Jeffreys prior, Empirical Bayes using conjugate gamma-Poisson model with gamma parameters selected by method of moments, and the Clevenson-Zidek estimator. It is shown through computer-simulated data that the regularized differentiation based on ridge regression has the smallest mean-squared error among all estimators. The analysis of shrinkage mechanism implemented by regularized differentiation is performed, and it is shown that the regularized differentiation amounts to performing a weighted averaging of all the samples. The weights are determined by the regularization parameter automatically selected by the L-curve technique. Since the method of least squares makes no distributional assumptions about the data, it presents an attractive technique for bioburden density estimation when there are concerns about the misspecification of the distributional model. The paper concludes with the analysis of the bioburden data collected during InSight mission and directions for future work.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A model of tungsten anode x-ray spectra

Purpose: A semiempirical model for x-ray production in tungsten thick-targets was evaluated using a new characterization of electron fluence. Methods: Electron fluence is modeled taking into account both the energy and angular distributions, each of them adjusted to Monte Carlo simulated data. Distances were scaled by the CSDA range to reduce the energy dependence. Bremsstrahlung production was found by integrating the cross section with the fluence in a 1D penetration model. Characteristic radiation was added using a semiempirical law whose validity was checked. The results were compared the experimental results of Bhat et al., with the SpekCalc numerical tool, and with MCNPX simulation results from the work of Hernandez and Boone. Results: The model described shows better agreement with the experimental results than the SpekCalc predictions in the sense of area between the spectra. A general improvement of the predictions of half-value layers is also found. The results are also in good agreement with the simulation results in the 50–640 keV energy range. Conclusions: A complete model for x-ray production in thick bremsstrahlung targets has been developed, improving the results of previous works and extending the energy range covered to the 50–640 keV interval.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Development of a Framework for Data Integration, Assimilation, and Learning for Geological Carbon Sequestration (DIAL-GCS) (Final Report)

This project aimed to develop and demonstrate a Data Integration, Assimilation, and Learning framework for geologic carbon sequestration projects (DIAL-GCS). DIAL-GCS is an intelligence monitoring system (IMS) for automating GCS closed-loop management by leveraging recent developments in machine learning technologies, complex event processing (CEP), and reduced-order modeling. The safe and efficient operation of GCS repositories requires integrated monitoring to track the injected CO¬2 as it moves within a storage reservoir. GCS projects are data intensive, as a result of proliferation of digital instrumentation and smart-sensing technologies. GCS projects are also resource intensive, often requiring multidisciplinary teams performing different monitoring, verification, accounting (MVA) tasks throughout the lifecycle of a project to ensure secure containment of injected CO2. The success of GCS thus depends in a large part on our ability to access, assimilate, and analyze heterogeneous data and information sources in a timely manner. This project included a number of meaningful and necessary tasks to transform the human domain knowledge into machine-interpretable rules for automating knowledge extraction and discovery in GCS. The specific technical objectives of the proposed DIAL-GCS project were to develop an ontology-driven GCS data management module for storing, querying, and exchanging GCS data (both historic and live sensor data) from multiple sources and in heterogeneous formats. Incorporate a CEP engine for detecting abnormal situations by seamlessly combining expert knowledge, rule-based reasoning, and machine learning. Enable uncertainty quantification and predictive analytics using a combination of coupled-process modeling, AI/ML methods, and reduced-order modeling, and integrate and demonstrate the system’s capabilities with both real and simulated data. As far as we know, this is one of the first projects aimed to develop intelligent monitoring systems (IMS) targeting the GCS. Under this project, the team had developed a large number of web applications and scientific algorithms that contribute the main theme of intelligent monitoring. The team has published more than a dozen peer reviewed papers and disseminated the research results at multiple technical meetings.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Remote sensing of coastal wetlands biomass using Thematic Mapper wavebands

Spectral data, simulating thematic mapper bands 3, 4 and 5 are gathered in salt and brackish marshes using a hand-held radiometer. Simple regression models are developed equating spectral radiance indices with total live biomass for S. alterniflora in a salt marsh and for a variety of plant species in a brackish marsh. Models are then tested using an independent set of data and compared to harvest estimates of biomass. In the salt marsh, biomass estimates from spectral data are similar to harvest biomass estimates during most of the growing season. Estimates of annual net aerial primary productivity calculated from spectral data are within 21% of production estimated from harvest data. During August, biomass estimates from spectral data in the brackish marsh are similar to biomass estimated by harvesting techniques. At other times during the growing season, spectral data estimates of biomass are not always comparable to harvest biomass estimates. Reasonable estimates of wetlands biomass are possible during the peak of the growing season (August) using spectral data similar to thematic mapper bands 3, 4 and 5 gathered with hand-held radiometers.

Hardisky, M. A.↗

Ab initio study of electron-ion structure factors in binary liquids with different types of chemical bonding

Electron-ion structure factors, calculated in ab initio molecular dynamics simulations, are reported for several binary liquids with different kinds of chemical bonding: metallic liquid alloy Bi–Pb, molten salt RbF, and liquid water. We derive analytical expressions for the long-wavelength asymptotes of the partial electron-ion structure factors of binary systems and show that the analytical results are in good agreement with the ab initio simulation data. The long-wavelength behaviour of the total charge structure factors for the three binary liquids is discussed.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

A nonlinear structural subgrid-scale closure for compressible MHD. I. Derivation and energy dissipation properties

Compressible magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) turbulence is ubiquitous in astrophysical phenomena ranging from the intergalactic to the stellar scales. In studying them, numerical simulations are nearly inescapable, due to the large degree of nonlinearity involved. However, the dynamical ranges of these phenomena are much larger than what is computationally accessible. In large eddy simulations (LESs), the resulting limited resolution effects are addressed explicitly by introducing to the equations of motion additional terms associated with the unresolved, subgrid-scale dynamics. This renders the system unclosed. We derive a set of nonlinear structural closures for the ideal MHD LES equations with particular emphasis on the effects of compressibility. The closures are based on a gradient expansion of the finite-resolution operator [W. K. Yeo (CUP, 1993)] and require no assumptions about the nature of the flow or magnetic field. Thus, the scope of their applicability ranges from the sub- to the hyper-sonic and -Alfvénic regimes. The closures support spectral energy cascades both up and down-scale, as well as direct transfer between kinetic and magnetic resolved and unresolved energy budgets. They implicitly take into account the local geometry, and in particular, the anisotropy of the flow. Their properties are a priori validated in Paper II [P. Grete et al., Phys. Plasmas 23, 062317 (2016)] against alternative closures available in the literature with respect to a wide range of simulation data of homogeneous and isotropic turbulence.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Cross modulation instability in normal-dispersion fibre lasers and amplifiers

This paper examines instability resulting from cross phase modulation interaction between signal and pump waves in normal-dispersion fibre lasers and amplifiers. From analysis of the dispersion relation for the wave vector of small harmonic perturbations, we derive dynamic spectral characteristics of the modulation gain coefficient. Its dependence on the group velocity difference between signal and pump waves is investigated. Analytical results are compared to numerical simulation data. We discuss how the general relationships obtained in this study can be used in practical applications. (paper)

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

New Yield Estimates for Nuclear Detonations Over Water

One of the primary methods used by the United States to estimate the yields of atmospheric nuclear tests performed in the 1940’s, 50’s, and 60’s was to film each detonation with a high-speed camera, measure the blast radius as a function of time, and then use Taylor’s spherical blast wave equation to calculate the source energy (i.e., the yield). For surface detonations, the yield in Taylor’s equation was assumed to be twice as large as the actual yield to account for the energy reflected from the surface, assuming the ground was a perfect reflector. Recent simulations of surface detonations over water (referred to as barge shots) have shown that Taylor’s equation must be modified further to account for material entrainment and heat losses. We have computed this lost energy using a high-order radiation-hydrodynamics code to determine the reduction in blast radius vs. time. By analyzing simulation data in the same manner as film data, we have determined that a yield correction factor of 1.27± 0.04 should be applied to the barge shots.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Fission Meter Information Barrier Attribute Measurement System: Task 1 Report: Document existing Fission Meter neutron IB system

An SNM attribute Information Barrier (IB) system was developed for a 2011 US/UK Exercise. The system was modified and extensively tested in a 2013-2014 US-UK Measurement Campaign. This work demonstrated rapid deployment of an IB system for potential treaty use. The system utilizes an Ortec Fission Meter neutron multiplicity counter and custom computer code. The system demonstrates a proof-of-principle automated Pu-240 mass determination with an information barrier. After a software start command is issued, the system automatically acquires and downloads data, performs an analysis, and displays the results. This system conveys the results of a Pu mass threshold measurements in a way the does not reveal sensitive information. In full IB mode, only red/green ‘lights’ are displayed in the software. In test mode, more detailed information is displayed. The code can also read in, analyze, and display results from previously acquired or simulated data. Because the equipment is commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS), the system demonstrates a low-cost short-lead-time technology for treaty SNM attribute measurements. A deployed system will likely require integration of additional authentication and tamper-indicating technologies. This will be discussed for the project in this and future progress reports.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗