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Report of the theory panel

The ultimate goal of this research is to develop an understanding which is sufficiently comprehensive to allow realistic predictions of the behavior of the physical systems. Theory has a central role to play in the quest for this understanding. The level of theoretical description is dependent on three constraints: (1) the available computer hardware may limit both the number and the size of physical processes the model system can describe; (2) the fact that some natural systems may only be described in a statistical manner; and (3) the fact that some natural systems may be observable only through remote sensing which is intrinsically limited by spatial resolution and line of sight integration. From this the report discusses present accomplishments and future goals of theoretical space physics. Finally, the development and use of new supercomputer is examined.

Ashourabdalla, Maha↗

Hadronic contributions to (g - 2) µ

The Muon g-2 Experiment at Fermilab, which recently started running, plans to reduce the uncertain- ties on the already very precisely measured anomalous magnetic moment of the muon by a factor of four. The goal of this effort is to probe the observed difference of more than three standard deviations between Standard-Model theory and experiment, one of the few persistent hints for physics beyond the Standard Model. The Fermilab experiment collected data from their first run last year with statistics comparable to BNL E821. They expect to release the measurement result in 2019. On the theoretical side, because the muon g - 2 arises from quantum- mechanical loop contributions in the Standard Model, it is sensitive to virtual effects of new particles, and places important constraints on Standard-Model extensions. To leverage the anticipated reduction in experimental errors, and determine unambiguously whether or not new-physics effects contribute to this quantity, the theoretical errors must be made more reliable and reduced to a commensurate precision. The Muon g-2 Theory Initiative was created to facilitate this development. The dominant sources of uncertainty in the Standard-Model prediction of the muon g -2 are from the hadronic contributions. The hadronic vacuum polarization (HVP) provides the leading correction followed by hadronic light-by-light (HLbL) scattering. There are a number of complementary theoretical efforts underway to better understand and quantify these contributions, including dispersive and data driven methods, lattice QCD, and effective field theories. Given the precision goals and the phenomenological importance, it is important to have more than one independent method for each of the two hadronic corrections, each with fully quantified uncertainties. Fostering the development of such methods is a prime goal of the initiative, as this will enable critical cross checks, and, upon combination, may yield gains in precision, to maximize the impact of E989. An important aspect of the Muon g-2 Theory Initiative’s activities are providing platforms that facilitate interactions between the different groups, as well as between the theoretical and experimental g - 2 communities. To this end, several workshops were organized in 2017 and 2018. The first meeting, held at Fermilab (June 3–6, 2017, St. Charles, IL, USA), served to kick-off the Initiative’s activities. Two meetings in early 2018 were focused respectively on the HVP and HLbL corrections. The HVP meeting was held at KEK (February 12–14, 2018, Tsukuba, Japan) and the HLbL meeting at the University of Connecticut (March 12–14, 2018, Storrs, CT, USA). The most recent workshop, which served as the second plenary meeting of the Initiative, was held at the University of Mainz (June 18–22, 2018, Mainz, Germany). An important outcome of these meetings are concrete plans for a first white paper, which is currently being written. We aim to post the white paper just prior to the release of the first E989 measurement, to present a clean theoretical prediction. The first white paper is focused on assessing and improving the reliability of the SM prediction. The purpose of the INT workshop in September 2019 is to start the next stage of the Initiative, focusing on the development of strategies to improve the theory uncertainties beyond the current level towards the E989 precision goal. We aim to accelerate theoretical developments on the hadronic contributions to the muon g - 2 so that the Standard-Model theory error can be brought to the needed precision, again in advance of the next release from E989. Hence the workshop will provide crucial theory support for a US experiment with broad impact. The Muon g-2 Theory Initiative relies on input from representatives of all the different communities that are engaged in this effort. It is therefore important that all these areas are properly represented. The funds from this grant will be used to enable more people, especially early-career scientists, to participate and make essential contributions to the workshop discussions. Since the workshop’s main goal is to kick-off the next stage of the theory initiative’s activities, support for this workshop from the DOE will help the theory community provide crucial theoretical support to the Fermilab Muon g-2 Experiment.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Stacked reverberation mapping of high-redshift quasars in DESI. I. Feasibility analysis

The broad-line region of quasars has long been probed by reverberation mapping techniques that measure time lags between continuum and broad emission-line variations. Stacked reverberation mapping has been proposed as a less observationally expensive alternative to traditional methods. This ensemble approach also reduces biases from small-number statistics. The Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) is conducting the most extensive spectroscopic survey of quasars to date. We create mock light curves emulating expected DESI quasar observations at redshifts $1.48\lt z\lt 5.2$ and luminosities $44.68 \le \log \lambda L_{1350 \mathring{\rm A}{}} / \mathrm{erg\, s^{-1}} \le 45.99$ to test stacked reverberation mapping feasibility using sparse spectroscopic data paired with well-sampled photometric data. The pipeline, using the lag estimation code JAVELIN (Just Another Vehicle for Estimating Lags In Nuclei), successfully recovers the simulated C IV lags within 1σ of the true values using spectroscopic light curves composed of only a few spectral epochs (2–10) with irregular cadences. We investigate how observational factors, including C IV flux error magnitude, number of stacked quasars, and spectral epoch count, affect performance. This work motivates a pathway for future stacked reverberation mapping projects with large-scale spectroscopic surveys of quasars having $\ge 2$ spectroscopic observations. Our results suggest an economical alternative for constraining and extending the radius–luminosity relation to higher redshifts and luminosities. Subsequently, this relation can be employed more reliably in single-epoch black hole mass measurements and quasar cosmology in these distant regimes.

quasars: general, quasars: supermassive black hole↗

Quantum state-resolved differential cross sections for complex-forming chemical reactions: Asymmetry is the rule, symmetry the exception

We argue that statistical theories are generally unable to accurately predict state-resolved differential cross sections for triatomic bimolecular reactions studied in beam experiments, even in the idealized limit where the dynamics are fully chaotic. The basic reason is that quenching of interferences between partial waves is less efficient than intuitively expected, especially around the poles.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Bubble Departure Diameter and Bubble Release Frequency Measurement from TAMU Subcooled Flow Boiling Experiment

The bubble departure diameter and bubble release frequency were obtained through the analysis of TAMU subcooled flow boiling experimental data. The numerous images of bubbles at departure were analyzed for each experimental condition to achieve the reliable statistics of the measured bubble parameters. The results are provided in this report with simple discussion.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Algorithms for Non-Negative Matrix Factorization on Noisy Data With Negative Values

Non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) is a dimensionality reduction technique that has shown promise for analyzing noisy data, especially astronomical data. For these datasets, the observed data may contain negative values due to noise even when the true underlying physical signal is strictly positive. Prior NMF work has not treated negative data in a statistically consistent manner, which becomes problematic for low signal-to-noise data with many negative values. In this paper we present two algorithms, Shift-NMF and Nearly-NMF, that can handle both the noisiness of the input data and also any introduced negativity. Both of these algorithms use the negative data space without clipping or masking and recover non-negative signals without any introduced positive offset that occurs when clipping or masking negative data. We demonstrate this numerically on both simple and more realistic examples, and prove that both algorithms have monotonically decreasing update rules.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

A Comprehensive Monte Carlo Framework for Jet-Quenching

This article presents the motivation for developing a comprehensive modeling framework in which different models and parameter inputs can be compared and evaluated for a large range of jet-quenching observables measured in relativistic heavy-ion collisions at RHIC and the LHC. Here, the concept of a framework is discussed within the context of recent efforts by the JET Collaboration, the authors of JEWEL, and the JETSCAPE collaborations. The framework ingredients for each of these approaches is presented with a sample of important results from each. The role of advanced statistical tools in comparing models to data is also discussed, along with the need for a more detailed accounting of correlated errors in experimental results.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Review of Particle Physics

The Review summarizes much of particle physics and cosmology. Using data from previous editions, plus 3,062 new measurements from 721 papers, we list, evaluate, and average measured properties of gauge bosons and the recently discovered Higgs boson, leptons, quarks, mesons, and baryons. We summarize searches for hypothetical particles such as supersymmetric particles, heavy bosons, axions, dark photons, etc. All the particle properties and search limits are listed in Summary Tables. We also give numerous tables, figures, formulae, and reviews of topics such as Higgs Boson Physics, Supersymmetry, Grand Unified Theories, Neutrino Mixing, Dark Energy, Dark Matter, Cosmology, Particle Detectors, Colliders, Probability and Statistics. Among the 117 reviews are many that are new or heavily revised, including those on Pentaquarks and Inflation. The complete Review is published online in a journal and on the website of the Particle Data Group (http://pdg.lbl.gov). The printed PDG Book contains the Summary Tables and all review articles but no longer includes the detailed tables from the Particle Listings. A Booklet with the Summary Tables and abbreviated versions of some of the review articles is also available. Contents Abstract, Contributors, Highlights and Table of ContentsAcrobat PDF (150 KB) IntroductionAcrobat PDF (456 KB) Particle Physics Summary Tables Gauge and Higgs bosonsAcrobat PDF (155 KB) LeptonsAcrobat PDF (134 KB) QuarksAcrobat PDF (84 KB) MesonsAcrobat PDF (871 KB) BaryonsAcrobat PDF (300 KB) Searches (Supersymmetry, Compositeness, etc.)Acrobat PDF (91 KB) Tests of conservation lawsAcrobat PDF (330 KB) Reviews, Tables, and Plots Detailed contents for this sectionAcrobat PDF (37 KB) Constants, Units, Atomic and Nuclear PropertiesAcrobat PDF (278 KB) Standard Model and Related TopicsAcrobat PDF (7.3 MB) Astrophysics and CosmologyAcrobat PDF (2.7 MB) Experimental Methods and CollidersAcrobat PDF (3.8 MB) Mathematical Tools or Statistics, Monte Carlo, Group Theory Acrobat PDF (1.3 MB) Kinematics, Cross-Section Formulae, and PlotsAcrobat PDF (3.9 MB) Particle Listings Illustrative key and abbreviationsAcrobat PDF (235 KB) Gauge and Higgs bosonsAcrobat PDF (2 MB) LeptonsAcrobat PDF (1.5 MB) QuarksAcrobat PDF (1.2 MB) Mesons: Light unflavored and strangeAcrobat PDF (4 MB) Mesons: Charmed and bottomAcrobat PDF (7.4 MB) Mesons: OtherAcrobat PDF (3.1 MB) BaryonsAcrobat PDF (3.97 MB) Miscellaneous searchesAcrobat PDF (2.4 MB) IndexAcrobat PDF (160 KB)

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

A fast exact simulation method for a class of Markov jump processes

A new method of the stochastic simulation algorithm (SSA), named the Hashing-Leaping method (HLM), for exact simulations of a class of Markov jump processes, is presented in this paper. The HLM has a conditional constant computational cost per event, which is independent of the number of exponential clocks in the Markov process. The main idea of the HLM is to repeatedly implement a hash-table-like bucket sort algorithm for all times of occurrence covered by a time step with length τ. This paper serves as an introduction to this new SSA method. We introduce the method, demonstrate its implementation, analyze its properties, and compare its performance with three other commonly used SSA methods in four examples. Our performance tests and CPU operation statistics show certain advantages of the HLM for large scale problems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Intrinsic alignment in redMaPPer clusters – II. Radial alignment of satellites towards cluster centres

We study the orientations of satellite galaxies in redMaPPer clusters constructed from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey at 0.1 < z < 0.35 to determine whether there is any preferential tendency for satellites to point radially towards cluster centres. Here, we analyse the satellite alignment (SA) signal based on three shape measurement methods (re-Gaussianization, de Vaucouleurs, and isophotal shapes), which trace galaxy light profiles at different radii. The measured SA signal depends on these shape measurement methods. We detect the strongest SA signal in isophotal shapes, followed by de Vaucouleurs shapes. While no net SA signal is detected using re-Gaussianization shapes across the entire sample, the observed SA signal reaches a statistically significant level when limiting to a subsample of higher luminosity satellites. We further investigate the impact of noise, systematics, and real physical isophotal twisting effects in the comparison between the SA signal detected via different shape measurement methods. Unlike previous studies, which only consider the dependence of SA on a few parameters, here we explore a total of 17 galaxy and cluster properties, using a statistical model averaging technique to naturally account for parameter correlations and identify significant SA predictors. We find that the measured SA signal is strongest for satellites with the following characteristics: higher luminosity, smaller distance to the cluster centre, rounder in shape, higher bulge fraction, and distributed preferentially along the major axis directions of their centrals. Finally, we provide physical explanations for the identified dependences and discuss the connection to theories of SA.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Robust verification analysis

We introduce a new methodology for inferring the accuracy of computational simulations through the practice of solution verification. We demonstrate this methodology on examples from computational heat transfer, fluid dynamics and radiation transport. Our methodology is suited to both well- and ill-behaved sequences of simulations. Our approach to the analysis of these sequences of simulations incorporates expert judgment into the process directly via a flexible optimization framework, and the application of robust statistics. The expert judgment is systematically applied as constraints to the analysis, and together with the robust statistics guards against over-emphasis on anomalous analysis results. We have named our methodology Robust Verification. Our methodology is based on utilizing multiple constrained optimization problems to solve the verification model in a manner that varies the analysis' underlying assumptions. Constraints applied in the analysis can include expert judgment regarding convergence rates (bounds and expectations) as well as bounding values for physical quantities (e.g., positivity of energy or density). This approach then produces a number of error models, which are then analyzed through robust statistical techniques (median instead of mean statistics). This provides self-contained, data and expert informed error estimation including uncertainties for both the solution itself and order of convergence. Our method produces high quality results for the well-behaved cases relatively consistent with existing practice. The methodology can also produce reliable results for ill-behaved circumstances predicated on appropriate expert judgment. We demonstrate the method and compare the results with standard approaches used for both code and solution verification on well-behaved and ill-behaved simulations.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

A statistical approach to combining multisource information in one-class classifiers

A new method is introduced in this paper for combining information from multiple sources to support one-class classification. The contributing sources may represent measurements taken by different sensors of the same physical entity, repeated measurements by a single sensor, or numerous features computed from a single measured image or signal. The approach utilizes the theory of statistical hypothesis testing, and applies Fisher's technique for combining p-values, modified to handle nonindependent sources. Classifier outputs take the form of fused p-values, which may be used to gauge the consistency of unknown entities with one or more class hypotheses. The approach enables rigorous assessment of classification uncertainties, and allows for traceability of classifier decisions back to the constituent sources, both of which are important for high-consequence decision support. Application of the technique is illustrated in two challenge problems, one for skin segmentation and the other for terrain labeling. Finally, the method is seen to be particularly effective for relatively small training samples.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A Python Multiscale Thermochemistry Toolbox (pMuTT) for thermochemical and kinetic parameter estimation

Estimating the thermochemical properties of systems is important in many fields such as material science and catalysis. The Python multiscale thermochemistry toolbox (pMuTT) is a Python software library developed to streamline the conversion of ab-initio data to thermochemical properties using statistical mechanics, to perform thermodynamic analysis, and to create input files for kinetic modeling software. Its open-source implementation in Python leverages existing scientific codes, encourages users to write scripts for their needs, and allows the code to be expanded easily. The core classes developed include a statistical mechanical model in which energy modes can be included or excluded to suit the application, empirical models for rapid thermodynamic property estimation, and a reaction model to calculate kinetic parameters or changes in thermodynamic properties. In addition, pMuTT supports other features, such as Brønsted–Evans–Polanyi (BEP) relationships, coverage effects, and ab-initio phase diagrams.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Activation of Water by Thorium Cation: A Guided Ion Beam and Quantum Chemical Study

The reaction of atomic thorium cations with deuterated water as a function of kinetic energy from thermal to 10 eV was studied using guided ion beam tandem mass spectrometry. At thermal energies, both ThO{sup +} + D{sub 2} and DThO{sup +} + D are formed in barrierless exothermic processes and reproduce results in the literature obtained using ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry. As the energy is increased, the branching ratio between these two channels changes such that the dominant product changes from ThO{sup +} to DThO{sup +} and back to ThO{sup +}, until ThD{sup +} + OD is energetically available and is the dominant product channel. To help understand these experimental results, a variety of theoretical approaches were tried and used to establish a potential energy surface, which compares well with previous theoretical studies. Utilizing the theoretical results, the kinetic energy dependent branching ratio between the ThO{sup +} + D{sub 2} and DThO{sup +} + D channels was calculated using both RRKM and phase space theory (PST). The results indicate that consideration of angular momentum conservation (as in PST) and spin-orbit corrected energies are needed to reproduce experimental results quantitatively. The PST modeling also provides relative energies for the two competing transition states that lead to the primary products, for which theory provides reasonable agreement. .

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Lattice QCD Calculation of Nucleon Structure

It is emphasized in the 2015 NSAC Long Range Plan that "understanding the structure of hadrons in terms of QCD's quarks and gluons is one of the central goals of modern nuclear physics." Over the last three decades, lattice QCD has developed into a powerful tool for ab initio calculations of strong-interaction physics. Up until now, it is the only theoretical approach to solving QCD with controlled statistical and systematic errors. Since 1985, we have proposed and carried out first-principles calculations of nucleon structure and hadron spectroscopy using lattice QCD which entails both algorithmic development and large-scale computer simulation. We started out by calculating the nucleon form factors -- electromagnetic, axial-vector, πNN, and scalar form factors, the quark spin contribution to the proton spin, the strangeness magnetic moment, the quark orbital angular momentum, the quark momentum fraction, and the quark and glue decomposition of the proton momentum and angular momentum. The first round of calculations were done with Wilson fermions in the `quenched' approximation where the dynamical effects of the quarks in the sea are not taken into account in the Monte Carlo simulation to generate the background gauge configurations. Beginning in 2000, we have started implementing the overlap fermion formulation into the spectroscopy and structure calculations. This is mainly because the overlap fermion honors chiral symmetry as in the continuum. It is going to be more and more important to take the symmetry into account as the simulations move closer to the physical point where the u and d quark masses are as light as a few MeV only. We began with lattices which have quark masses in the sea corresponding to a pion mass at ~ 300 MeV and obtained the strange form factors, charm and strange quark masses, the charmonium spectrum and the D s meson decay constant f D s , the strangeness and charmness, the meson mass decomposition and the strange quark spin from the anomalous Ward identity. Recently, we have started to include multiple lattices with different lattice spacings and different volumes including large lattices at the physical pion mass point. We are getting quite close to being able to calculate the hadron structure at the physical point and to do the continuum and large volume extrapolations, which is our ultimate aim. We have now finished several projects which have included these systematic corrections. They include the leptonic decay width of the ρ, the πN sigma and strange sigma terms, and the strange quark magnetic moment. Over the years, we have also studied hadron spectroscopy with lattice calculations and in phenomenology. These include Roper resonance, pentaquark state, charmonium spectrum, glueballs, scalar mesons a 0 (1450) and σ(600) and other scalar mesons, and the 1 -+ meson. In addition, we have employed the canonical approach to explore the first-order phase transition and the critical point at finite density and finite temperature. We have also discovered a new parton degree of freedom -- the connected sea partons, from the path-integral formulation of the hadronic tensor, which explains the experimentally observed Gottfried sum rule violation. Combining experimental result on the strange parton distribution, the CT10 global fitting results of the total u and d anti-partons and the lattice result of the ratio of the momentum fraction of the strange vs that of u or d in the disconnected insertion, we have shown that the connected sea partons can be isolated. In this final technical report, we shall present a few representative highlights that have been achieved in the project.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

The Muon $g-2$ Experiment at Fermilab

The current ~ 3.5σ discrepancy between the experimental measurement and theoretical prediction of the muon magnetic anomaly, a µ , stands as a potential indication of the existence of new physics. The Muon g - 2 experiment at Fermilab is set to measure aµ with a four-fold improvement in the uncertainty with respect to previous experiment, with an aim to determine whether the g - 2 discrepancy is well established. The experiment recently completed its first physics run and a summer programme of essential upgrades, before continuing on with its experimental programme. The Run-1 data alone are expected to yield a statistical uncertainty of 350 ppb and the publication of the first result is expected in late-2019.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Expected values and variances of Bragg peak intensities measured in a nanocrystalline powder diffraction experiment

A rigorous study of sampling and intensity statistics applicable for a powder diffraction experiment as a function of crystallite size is presented. Our analysis yields approximate equations for the expected value, variance and standard deviations for both the number of diffracting grains and the corresponding diffracted intensity for a given Bragg peak. The classical formalism published in 1948 by Alexander, Klug & Kummer [ J. Appl. Phys. (1948), 19 , 742–753] appears as a special case, limited to large crystallite sizes, here. It is observed that both the Lorentz probability expression and the statistics equations used in the classical formalism are inapplicable for nanocrystalline powder samples.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

The Effect of Satellite Observing System Changes on MERRA Water and Energy Fluxes

Because reanalysis data sets offer state variables and fluxes at regular space / time intervals, atmospheric reanalyses have become a mainstay of the climate community for diagnostic purposes and for driving offline ocean and land models. Although one weakness of these data sets is the susceptibility of the flux products to uncertainties because of shortcomings in parameterized model physics, another issue, perhaps less appreciated, is the fact that continual but discreet changes in the evolving observational system, particularly from satellite sensors, may also introduce artifacts in the time series of quantities. In this paper we examine the ability of the NASA MERRA (Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications) and other recent reanalyses to determine variability in the climate system over the satellite record (approximately the last 30 years). In particular we highlight the effect on the reanalysis of discontinuities at the junctures of the onset of passive microwave imaging (Special Sensor Microwave Imager) in late 1987 as well as improved sounding and imaging with the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit, AMSU-A, in 1998. We first examine MERRA fluxes from the perspective of how physical modes of variability (e.g. ENSO events, Pacific Decadal Variability) are contaminated by artificial step-like trends induced by the onset of new moisture data these two satellite observing systems. Secondly, we show how Redundancy Analysis, a statistical regression methodology, is effective in relating these artifact signals in the moisture and temperature analysis increments to their presence in the physical flux terms (e.g. precipitation, radiation). This procedure is shown to be effective greatly reducing the artificial trends in the flux quantities.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗