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Hierarchical Gaussian Random Field Sampling for Multilevel Markov Chain Monte Carlo: Coupling Stochastic Partial Differential Equation and the Karhunen–Loève Decomposition

This work introduces structure preserving hierarchical decompositions for sampling Gaussian random fields (GRFs) within the context of multilevel Bayesian inference in high-dimensional space. Existing scalable hierarchical sampling methods, such as those based on stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs), often reduce the dimensionality of the sample space at the cost of accuracy of inference. Other approaches, such that those based on Karhunen-Loève (KL) expansions, offer sample space dimensionality reduction but sacrifice GRF representation accuracy and ergodicity of the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler and are computationally expensive for high-dimensional problems. The proposed method integrates the dimensionality reduction capabilities of KL expansions with the scalability of SPDE-based sampling, thereby providing a robust, unified framework for high-dimensional uncertainty quantification (UQ) that is scalable and accurate, preserves ergodicity, and offers dimensionality reduction of the sample space. The hierarchy in our multilevel algorithm is derived from the geometric multigrid hierarchy. By constructing a hierarchical decomposition that maintains the covariance structure across the levels in the hierarchy, the approach enables efficient coarse-to-fine sampling while ensuring that all samples are drawn from the desired distribution. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated on a benchmark subsurface flow problem, demonstrating its effectiveness in improving computational efficiency and statistical accuracy. Furthermore, our proposed technique is more efficient and accurate and displays better convergence properties than existing methods for high-dimensional Bayesian inference problems.

Gaussian random fields↗

Analysis of Factors Affecting Successful Clinical Trial Enrollment in the Context of Three Prospective, Randomized, Controlled Trials

Purpose: Challenges can arise when attempting to maximize patient enrollment in clinical trials. There have been limited studies focusing on the barriers to enrollment and the efficacy of alternative study design to improve accrual. We analyzed barriers to clinical trial enrollment, particularly the influence of timing, in context of three prospective, randomized oncology trials where one arm was considered more aggressive than the other. Methods and Materials: From June 2011 to March 2015, patients who were enrolled on 3 prospective institutional protocols (an oligometastatic non-small cell lung cancer [NSCLC] trial and 2 proton vs intensity modulated radiation therapy trials in NSCLC and esophageal cancer) were screened for protocol eligibility. Eligible candidates were approached about trial participation, and patient characteristics (age, sex, T/N categorization) were recorded along with details surrounding trial presentation (appointment number). Fisher's exact test, Student's t tests, and multivariate analysis were performed to assess differences between enrolled and refusal patients. Results: A total of 309 eligible patients were approached about trial enrollment. The enrollment success rate during this time span was 52% (n=160 patients). Enrolled patients were more likely to be presented trial information at an earlier appointment (oligometastatic protocol: 5 vs 3 appointments [P<.001]; NSCLC protocol: 4 vs 3 appointments [P=.0018]; esophageal protocol: 3 vs 2 appointments [P=.0086]). No other factors or patient characteristics significantly affected enrollment success rate. Conclusion: Improvement in enrollment rates for randomized control trials is possible, even in difficult accrual settings. Earlier presentation of trial information to patients is the most influential factor for success and may help overcome accrual barriers without compromising trial design.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Efficacy and Safety of Two Different n-Butyl-2-Cyanoacrylates for the Embolization of Varicoceles: A Prospective, Randomized, Blinded Study

Purpose: This was a prospective, randomized, blinded comparative study of the efficacy and safety of two different n-butyl-2-cyanoacrylates (NBCAs) for embolization of varicoceles. Methods: A total of 112 insufficient spermatic veins (left-sided, n = 84; right-sided, n = 28) that were diagnosed in 83 adult males were prospectively randomized for blinded embolization with NBCA (n = 54; Histoacryl, Braun, Germany) or NBCA-MS (n = 58; Glubran2, General Enterprise Marketing, Viareggio, Lucca, Italy). Handling, embolic efficacy, and safety of both NBCAs were compared according the fulfillment of a standardized embolization plan, the occlusive effect on the spermatic vein, and the sticking to the microcatheter. Statistical analysis was performed with the Mann-Whitney U test and the Fisher's exact test. Results: Patients of both study arms were comparable for age and clinical indication. Spermatic vein characteristics were comparable for varicocele classification and embolization side. Both NBCAs were equally efficient in occluding the spermatic vein and blocking reflux (NBCA, n = 54/54, 100% vs. NBCA-MS, n = 54/57, 94.7%; P = 0.244). The embolization plan could be accomplished in an equal number of veins for both groups (NBCA, n = 45/54, 83.3% vs. NBCA-MS, n = 41/58, 70.7%; P = 0.124). Adhesiveness of the glue to the microcatheter was the same in both NBCA groups (NBCA, n = 25/54, 46.3% vs. NBCA-MS, n = 29/58, 50%; P = 0.71). No glue-related complications were noted. Conclusions: NBCA and NBCA-MS are equally efficient and safe glues for embolization of varicoceles.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

Magnons in one-dimensional k-component Fibonacci structures

We have studied the magnon transmission through of one-dimensional magnonic k-component Fibonacci structures, where k different materials are arranged in accordance with the following substitution rule: S{sub n}{sup (k)}=S{sub n−1}{sup (k)}S{sub n−k}{sup (k)} (n≥k=0,1,2,…), where S{sub n}{sup (k)} is the nth stage of the sequence. The calculations were carried out in exchange dominated regime within the framework of the Heisenberg model and taking into account the RPA approximation. We have considered multilayers composed of simple cubic spin-S Heisenberg ferromagnets, and, by using the powerful transfer-matrix method, the spin wave transmission is obtained. It is demonstrated that the transmission coefficient has a rich and interesting magnonic pass- and stop-bands structures, which depends on the frequency of magnons and the k values.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

The influence of random packed column parameters on the liquid holdup and interfacial area

Abstract Carbon dioxide capture via solvent absorption in packed columns has emerged as a potential technology to mitigate coal‐fired power plant CO 2 emissions. Parameters, including packing types, solvent properties, and operating conditions, could potentially affect the packed column CO 2 capture efficiency. To understand the importance of those parameters and help packed column optimization, a design of experiments (DoEs) method was proposed to generate input parameter matrix. Combined with multiphase computational fluid dynamics (CFD), the random packed column parameter influence on the liquid holdup and interfacial area can be efficiently investigated. Surrogate‐based sensitivity analysis shows that the solvent flow rate and contact angle are key factors dictating liquid holdup and interfacial area. On the other hand, solvent viscosity has a marginal impact on the interfacial area. The sensitivity scores were calculated for each input parameter to guide the selection of dimensionless numbers for the liquid holdup and interfacial area correlation development.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Turbomole

Turbomole is a highly optimized software package for large‐scale quantum chemical simulations of molecules, clusters, and periodic solids. Turbomole uses G aussian basis sets and specializes on predictive electronic structure methods with excellent cost to performance characteristics, such as (time‐dependent) density functional theory ( TDDFT ), second‐order M øller– P lesset theory, and explicitly correlated coupled cluster ( CC ) methods. These methods are combined with ultraefficient and numerically stable algorithms such as integral‐direct and Laplace transform methods, resolution‐of‐the‐identity, pair natural orbitals, fast multipole, and low‐order scaling techniques. Apart from energies and structures, a variety of optical, electric, and magnetic properties are accessible from analytical energy derivatives for electronic ground and excited states. Recent additions include post‐ K ohn– S ham calculations within the random phase approximation, periodic calculations, spin–orbit couplings, explicitly correlated CC singles doubles and perturbative triples methods, CC singles doubles excitation energies, and nonadiabatic molecular dynamics simulations using TDDFT . A dedicated graphical user interface and a user support network are also available. This article is categorized under: Software > Quantum Chemistry

Furche, Filipp↗

THE DISTANCE TO M101 HOSTING TYPE Ia SUPERNOVA 2011fe BASED ON THE TIP OF THE RED GIANT BRANCH

We present a new determination of the distance to M101, host of the Type Ia supernova (SN Ia) 2011fe, based on the tip of the red giant branch (TRGB) method. Our determination is based on Hubble Space Telescope archival F555W and F814W images of nine fields within the galaxy. Color-magnitude diagrams of arm-free regions in all fields show a prominent red giant branch. We measure the I-band magnitudes of the TRGB, obtaining a mean value of I{sub TRGB} = 25.28 {+-} 0.01 (where the error is a standard error), using an edge-detection method. We derive a weighted mean value of distance modulus (m - M){sub 0} = 29.30 {+-} 0.01(random) {+-} 0.12(systematic), corresponding to a linear distance of 7.24 {+-} 0.03 {+-} 0.40 Mpc. While previous estimates for M101 show a large range (TRGB distances of (m - M){sub 0} = 29.05-29.42 and Cepheid distances of (m - M){sub 0} = 29.04-29.71), our measurements of the TRGB distances for nine fields show a small dispersion of only 0.02. We combine our distance estimate and photometry in the literature to derive absolute peak magnitudes in optical and near-infrared bands of SN 2011fe. Absolute maximum magnitudes of SN 2011fe are {approx}0.2 mag brighter in the optical band and much more in the NIR than the current calibrations of SNe Ia in the literature. From the optical maximum magnitudes of SN 2011fe we obtain a value of the Hubble constant, H{sub 0} = 65.0 {+-} 0.5(random) {+-} 5.7(systematic) km s{sup -1} Mpc{sup -1}, slightly smaller than other recent determinations of H{sub 0}.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Outcome According to Elective Pelvic Radiation Therapy in Patients With High-Risk Localized Prostate Cancer: A Secondary Analysis of the GETUG 12 Phase 3 Randomized Trial

Purpose: The role of pelvic elective nodal irradiation (ENI) in the management of prostate cancer is controversial. This study analyzed the role of pelvic radiation therapy (RT) on the outcome in high-risk localized prostate cancer patients included in the Groupe d'Etude des Tumeurs Uro-Genitales (GETUG) 12 trial. Methods and Materials: Patients with a nonpretreated high-risk localized prostate cancer and a staging lymphadenectomy were randomly assigned to receive either goserelin every 3 months for 3 years and 4 cycles of docetaxel plus estramustine or goserelin alone. Local therapy was administered 3 months after the start of systemic treatment. Performance of pelvic ENI was left to the treating physician. Only patients treated with primary RT were included in this analysis. The primary endpoint was biochemical progression-free survival (bPFS). Results: A total of 413 patients treated from 2002 to 2006 were included, of whom 358 were treated using primary RT. A total of 208 patients received pelvic RT and 150 prostate-only RT. Prostate-specific antigen (PSA) concentration, Gleason score, or T stage did not differ according to performance of pelvic RT; pN+ patients more frequently received pelvic RT than pN0 patients (P<.0001). Median follow-up was 8.8 years. In multivariate analysis, bPFS was negatively impacted by pN stage (hazard ratio [HR]: 2.52 [95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.78-3.54], P<.0001), Gleason score 8 or higher (HR: 1.41 [95% CI: 1.03-1.93], P=.033) and PSA higher than 20 ng/mL (HR: 1.41 [95% CI: 1.02-1.96], P=.038), and positively impacted by the use of chemotherapy (HR: 0.66 [95% CI: 0.48-0.9], P=.009). There was no association between bPFS and use of pelvic ENI in multivariate analysis (HR: 1.10 [95% CI: 0.78-1.55], P=.60), even when analysis was restricted to pN0 patients (HR: 0.88 [95% CI: 0.59-1.31], P=.53). Pelvic ENI was not associated with increased acute or late patient reported toxicity. Conclusions: This unplanned analysis of a randomized trial failed to demonstrate a benefit of pelvic ENI on bPFS in high-risk localized prostate cancer patients.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Energy shift of collective electron excitations in highly corrugated graphitic nanostructures: Experimental and theoretical investigation

Effect of corrugation of hexagonal carbon network on the collective electron excitations has been studied using optical absorption and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy in conjunction with density functional theory calculations. Onion-like carbon (OLC) was taken as a material, where graphitic mantle enveloping agglomerates of multi-shell fullerenes is strongly curved. Experiments showed that positions of π and π + σ plasmon modes as well as π → π* absorption peak are substantially redshifted for OLC as compared with those of highly ordered pyrolytic graphite and thermally exfoliated graphite consisted of planar sheets. This effect was reproduced in behavior of dielectric functions of rippled graphite models calculated within the random phase approximation. We conclude that the energy of electron excitations in graphitic materials could be precisely tuned by a simple bending of hexagonal network without change of topology. Moreover, our investigation suggests that in such materials optical exciton can transfer energy to plasmon non-radiatively.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Nano-metrology: The art of measuring X-ray mirrors with slope errors <100 nrad

We present a comprehensive investigation of the systematic and random errors of the nano-metrology instruments used to characterize synchrotron X-ray optics at Diamond Light Source. With experimental skill and careful analysis, we show that these instruments used in combination are capable of measuring state-of-the-art X-ray mirrors. Examples are provided of how Diamond metrology data have helped to achieve slope errors of <100 nrad for optical systems installed on synchrotron beamlines, including: iterative correction of substrates using ion beam figuring and optimal clamping of monochromator grating blanks in their holders. Simulations demonstrate how random noise from the Diamond-NOM’s autocollimator adds into the overall measured value of the mirror’s slope error, and thus predict how many averaged scans are required to accurately characterize different grades of mirror.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

A Machine Learning Initializer for Newton-Raphson AC Power Flow Convergence

Power flow computations are fundamental to many power system studies. Obtaining a converged power flow case is not a trivial task especially in large power grids due to the non-linear nature of the power flow equations. One key challenge is that the widely used Newton based power flow methods are sensitive to the initial voltage magnitude and angle estimates, and a bad initial estimate would lead to non-convergence. This paper addresses this challenge by developing a random-forest (RF) machine learning model to provide better initial voltage magnitude and angle estimates towards achieving power flow convergence. This method was implemented on a real ERCOT 6102 bus system under various operating conditions. By providing better Newton-Raphson initialization, the RF model precipitated the solution of 2,106 cases out of 3,899 non-converging dispatches. These cases could not be solved from flat start or by initialization with the voltage solution of a reference case. Finally, results obtained from the RF initializer performed better when compared with DC power flow initialization, Linear regression, and Decision Trees.

random forest↗

The Specific Carbohydrate Diet and Diet Modification as Induction Therapy for Pediatric Crohn’s Disease: A Randomized Diet Controlled Trial

Background: Crohn’s disease (CD) is a chronic inflammatory intestinal disorder associated with intestinal dysbiosis. Diet modulates the intestinal microbiome and therefore has a therapeutic potential. The aim of this study is to determine the potential efficacy of three versions of the specific carbohydrate diet (SCD) in active Crohn’s Disease. Methods: 18 patients with mild/moderate CD (PCDAI 15–45) aged 7 to 18 years were enrolled. Patients were randomized to either SCD, modified SCD(MSCD) or whole foods (WF) diet. Patients were evaluated at baseline, 2, 4, 8 and 12 weeks. PCDAI, inflammatory labs and multi-omics evaluations were assessed. Results: Mean age was 14.3 ± 2.9 years. At week 12, all participants (n = 10) who completed the study achieved clinical remission. The C-reactive protein decreased from 1.3 ± 0.7 at enrollment to 0.9 ± 0.5 at 12 weeks in the SCD group. In the MSCD group, the CRP decreased from 1.6 ± 1.1 at enrollment to 0.7 ± 0.1 at 12 weeks. In the WF group, the CRP decreased from 3.9 ± 4.3 at enrollment to 1.6 ± 1.3 at 12 weeks. In addition, the microbiome composition shifted in all patients across the study period. While the nature of the changes was largely patient specific, the predicted metabolic mode of the organisms increasing and decreasing in activity was consistent across patients. Conclusions: This study emphasizes the impact of diet in CD. Each diet had a positive effect on symptoms and inflammatory burden; the more exclusionary diets were associated with a better resolution of inflammation.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Theory and implementation of a very high throughput true random number generator in field programmable gate array

The contribution of this paper is proposing a new entropy extraction mechanism based on sampling phase jitter in ring oscillators to make a high throughput true random number generator in a field programmable gate array (FPGA) practical. Starting from experimental observation and analysis of the entropy source in FPGA, a multi-phase sampling method is exploited to harvest the clock jitter with a maximum entropy and fast sampling speed. This parametrized design is implemented in a Xilinx Artix-7 FPGA, where the carry chains in the FPGA are explored to realize the precise phase shifting. The generator circuit is simple and resource-saving, so that multiple generation channels can run in parallel to scale the output throughput for specific applications. The prototype integrates 64 circuit units in the FPGA to provide a total output throughput of 7.68 Gbps, which meets the requirement of current high-speed quantum key distribution systems. The randomness evaluation, as well as its robustness to ambient temperature, confirms that the new method in a purely digital fashion can provide high-speed high-quality random bit sequences for a variety of embedded applications.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Data-assisted combustion simulations with dynamic submodel assignment using random forests

This investigation outlines a data-assisted approach that employs random forest classifiers for local and dynamic submodel assignment in turbulent-combustion simulations. This method is demonstrated in simulations of a single-element GOX/GCH4 rocket combustor; a priori as well as a posteriori assessments are conducted to (i) evaluate the accuracy and adjustability of the classifier for targeting different quantities of interest (QoIs), and (ii) assess improvements, resulting from the data-assisted combustion model assignment, in predicting target QoIs during simulation runtime. Results from the a priori study show that random forests, trained with local flow properties as input variables and combustion model errors as training labels, assign three different combustion models – finite-rate chemistry (FRC), flamelet progress variable (FPV) model, and inert mixing (IM) – with reasonable classification performance even when targeting multiple QoIs. Applications in a posteriori studies demonstrate improved predictions from data-assisted simulations, in temperature and CO mass fraction, when compared with monolithic FPV calculations. An additional a posteriori data-assisted simulation of a modified configuration demonstrates that the present approach can be successfully applied to different configurations, as long as thermophysical behavior can be represented by the training data. Furthermore, these results demonstrate that this data-driven framework holds promise for dynamic combustion submodel assignments in reacting flow simulations.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Source Analysis of Ozone Pollution in Liaoyuan City’s Atmosphere Based on Machine Learning Models and HYSPLIT Clustering Method

Firstly, this study investigates the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of the ozone (O 3 ) pollution in Liaoyuan City using monitoring data from 2015 to 2024. Then, three machine learning models (ML)—random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), and artificial neural network (ANN)—are employed to quantify the influence of meteorological and non-meteorological factors on O 3 concentrations. Finally, the HYSPLIT clustering method and CMAQ model are utilized to analyze inter-regional transport characteristics, identifying the causes of O 3 pollution. The results indicate that O 3 pollution in Liaoyuan exhibits a distinct seasonal pattern, with the highest concentrations found in spring and summer, peaking in the afternoon. Among the three ML models, the random forest model demonstrates the best predictive performance (R 2 = 0.9043). Feature importance identifies NO 2 as the primary driving factor, followed by meteorological conditions in the second quarter and land surface characteristics. Furthermore, regional transport significantly contributes to O 3 pollution, with approximately 80% of air mass trajectories in heavily polluted episodes originating from adjacent industrial areas and the sea. The combined effects of transboundary precursors and O 3 transport with local emissions and meteorological conditions further increase the O 3 pollution level. This study highlights the need to strengthen coordinated NO X and VOCs emission reductions and enhance regional joint prevention and control strategies in China.

HYSPLIT clustering↗

Electronic superlattice revealed by resonant scattering from random impurities in Sr 3 Ru 2 O 7

Resonant elastic x-ray scattering (REXS) is an exquisite element-sensitive tool for the study of subtle charge, orbital, and spin superlattice orders driven by the valence electrons, which therefore escape detection in conventional x-ray diffraction (XRD). Although the power of REXS has been demonstrated by numerous studies of complex oxides performed in the soft x-ray regime, the cross section and photon wavelength of the material-specific elemental absorption edges ultimately set the limit to the smallest superlattice amplitude and periodicity one can probe. Here we show – with simulations and REXS on Mn-substituted Sr 3 Ru 2 O 7 – that these limitations can be overcome by performing resonant scattering experiments at the absorption edge of a suitably-chosen, dilute impurity. This establishes that – in analogy with impurity-based methods used in electron-spin-resonance, nuclear-magnetic resonance, and Mössbauer spectroscopy – randomly distributed impurities can serve as a non-invasive, but now momentum-dependent probe, greatly extending the applicability of resonant x-ray scattering techniques.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

SU-F-T-337: Accounting for Patient Motion During Volumetric Modulated Ac Therapy (VMAT) Planning for Post Mastectomy Chest Wall Irradiation

Purpose: To evaluate two dose optimization strategies for maintaining target volume coverage of inversely-planned post mastectomy radiotherapy (PMRT) plans during patient motion. Methods: Five patients previously treated with VMAT for PMRT at our clinical were randomly selected for this study. For each patient, two plan optimization strategies were compared. Plan 1 was optimized to a volume that included the physician’s planning target volume (PTV) plus an expansion up to 0.3 cm from the bolus surface. Plan 2 was optimized to the PTV plus an expansion up to 0.3 cm from the patient surface (i.e., not extending into the bolus). VMAT plans were optimized to deliver 95% of the prescription to 95% of the PTV while sparing organs at risk based on clinical dose limits. PTV coverage was then evaluated following the simulation of patient shifts by 1.0 cm in the anterior and posterior directions using the treatment planning system. Results: Posterior patient shifts produced a difference in D95% of around 11% in both planning approaches from the non-shifted dose distributions. Coverage of the medial and lateral borders of the evaluation volume was reduced in both the posteriorly shifted plans (Plan 1 and Plan 2). Anterior patient shifts affected Plan 2 more than Plan 1 with a difference in D95% of 1% for Plan 1 versus 6% for Plan 2 from the non-shifted dose distributions. The least variation in PTV dose homogeneity for both shifts was obtained with Plan 1. However, all posteriorly shifted plans failed to deliver 95% of the prescription to 95% of the PTV. Whereas, only a few anteriorly shifted plans failed this criteria. Conclusion: The results of this study suggest both planning volume methods are sensitive to patient motion, but that a PTV extended into a bolus volume is slightly more robust for anterior patient shifts.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Towards solution and refinement of organic crystal structures by fitting to the atomic pair distribution function

In this study, a method towards the solution and refinement of organic crystal structures by fitting to the atomic pair distribution function (PDF) is developed. Approximate lattice parameters and molecular geometry must be given as input. The molecule is generally treated as a rigid body. The positions and orientations of the molecules inside the unit cell are optimized starting from random values. The PDF is obtained from carefully measured X-ray powder diffraction data. The method resembles `real-space' methods for structure solution from powder data, but works with PDF data instead of the diffraction pattern itself. As such it may be used in situations where the organic compounds are not long-range-ordered, are poorly crystalline, or nanocrystalline. The procedure was applied to solve and refine the crystal structures of quinacridone (β phase), naphthalene and allopurinol. In the case of allopurinol it was even possible to successfully solve and refine the structure in P1 with four independent molecules. As an example of a flexible molecule, the crystal structure of paracetamol was refined using restraints for bond lengths, bond angles and selected torsion angles. In all cases, the resulting structures are in excellent agreement with structures from single-crystal data.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗