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At least 1,279 records · Page 71

Degree Of Development Of Waves And Bias In Radar Altimetry

Report discusses relationship between degree of development of waves and sea-state bias in radar altimetry. Purpose of study to increase accuracy of estimates of sea-state bias and thereby increase accuracy of estimates of sea level obtained if waves at measurement spot suppressed. Study shows sea-state bias related to parameter called "pseudo wave age."

Fu, Lee-Leung↗

Uniformly Ordered Binary Decision Algorithm for Benchmark Experiment Correlations in Whisper Validation

When performing a validation exercise for determining the upper subcritical limit of a nuclear criticality safety application, an analyst should select and perform a statistical analysis on a population of benchmark experiments that are neutronically similar to the application. The size of this population should be sufficiently large such that the statistical analysis has a high degree of confidence that the bias plus bias uncertainty (calculational margin) has been accurately quantified. A complication arises because many benchmark experiments share common components, leading to correlations in their measured effective multiplication factors. Correlations between benchmark experiments within the population reduces its predictive power. This motivates the need for methods that consider benchmark experiment correlations and ensure adequate statistical significance of results. The Whisper code is a statistical analysis pack- age that incorporates nuclear data sensitivity coefficients from MCNP to assess benchmark experiment similarity and then performs an extreme-value analysis to estimate the bias plus bias uncertainty. The original methodology in Whisper does not consider the effect of benchmark experiment correlations when making this estimation, and this summary proposes the uniformly ordered binary decision algorithm to address this shortcoming. The original methodology in Whisper computes similarity coefficients ck for an application compared to all benchmark experiments in its library and develops weighting factors for a selected population proportional to the ck values. The methodology can be interpreted as statistically emulating a validation exercise for a particular application where the weighting factors may be viewed as the likelihood that an analyst would include a particular benchmark experiment within the population. The effective sample size of the population is the expected or mean number of benchmark experiments in the population. The uniformly ordered binary decision algorithm identifies clusters of correlated benchmark experiments within the population and then computes adjusted weighting factors based on the magnitude of the correlation coefficients within the cluster to compute a reduced effective sample size accounting for the lower information content because of correlations. Benchmark experiments within the cluster are ordered randomly with equal probability and probabilistic decisions are made as to whether a benchmark. experiment within the cluster should treated as redundant with a previous one; if two redundant benchmark experiments are included, then the conservative worst case bias plus bias uncertainty is used and the pair is counted as a single benchmark experiment in the population. Results are provided for HEU solutions in a research version of the Whisper software using benchmark experiment correlations provided by DICE, the Database for the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP). These show that there can be a significant increase in the bias plus bias uncertainty because the effective sample size is reduced, and therefore the algorithm, needing to meet sample size requirements, expands the benchmark experiment population by accepting less similar benchmark experiments that would have otherwise not been included.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Wrist actigraphic measures of sleep in space

STUDY OBJECTIVES: To determine whether wrist actigraphy is useful as a tool for space-based sleep research. Specifically, to determine whether bedtimes and waketimes can be identified from the actigraphic record, and whether actigraphic measures of sleep in space are related to polysomnographic (PSG) ones. DESIGN AND SETTING: Actigraphy, sleep diary, and Polysomnographic (PSG) measures of sleep were obtained from four subjects in two 72h measurement blocks occurring 2d and 12d into a 17d Space Shuttle mission in orbiting the earth in microgravity. PATIENTS: Four healthy male astronauts aged 38y - 47y. INTERVENTIONS: NA. MEASUREMENTS AND RESULTS: Sleep onset and offset at "night" could be quite clearly identified from the actigraphic record and were better estimated by actigraph than by diary. There was a high correlation between actigraphic and PSG estimates of sleep duration (r = 0.96) and sleep efficiency (r = 0.88), and a similarity in the mean estimates obtained. On a minute-by-minute basis, there was a good correlation between sleep stage and actigraphic movement counts, with a higher level of counts per minute recorded in epochs with lighter PSG sleep stages. There was also a high correlation (r = 0.90) between minutes of stage 0 (wake) occurring between bedtime and wake time, and number of non-zero actigraph epochs during the same interval. CONCLUSIONS: Actigraphy worked well in space both as a way of detecting bedtimes and waketimes, and as an indicant of sleep restlessness.

NASA Discipline Regulatory Physiology↗

Quantifying and reducing the differences in forest CO 2 -fluxes estimated by eddy covariance, biometric and chamber methods: A global synthesis

Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) fluxes between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere are primarily measured with eddy covariance (EC), biometric, and chamber methods. However, it is unclear why the estimates of CO 2 -fluxes, when measured using these different methods, converge at some sites but diverge at others. We synthesized a novel global dataset of forest CO 2 -fluxes to evaluate the consistency between EC and biometric or chamber methods for quantifying CO 2 budget in forests. The EC approach, comparing with the other two methods, tended to produce 25% higher estimate of net ecosystem production (NEP, 0.52Mg C ha-1 yr-1), mainly resulting from lower EC-estimated Re; 10% lower ecosystem respiration (Re, 1.39Mg C ha-1 yr-1); and 3% lower gross primary production (0.48 Mg C ha-1 yr-1) The discrepancies between EC and the other methods were higher at sites with complex topography and dense canopies versus those with flat topography and open canopies. Forest age also influenced the discrepancy through the change of leaf area index. The open-path EC system induced >50% of the discrepancy in NEP, presumably due to its surface heating effect. These results provided strong evidence that EC produces biased estimates of NEP and Re in forest ecosystems. A global extrapolation suggested that the discrepancies in CO 2 fluxes between methods were consistent with a global underestimation of Re, and overestimation of NEP, by the EC method. Accounting for these discrepancies would substantially improve the our estimates of the terrestrial carbon budget .

Wang, Xingchang↗

A Novel Method for Predicting Late Genitourinary Toxicity After Prostate Radiation Therapy and the Need for Age-Based Risk-Adapted Dose Constraints

Background: There are no well-established normal tissue sparing dose–volume histogram (DVH) criteria that limit the risk of urinary toxicity from prostate radiation therapy (RT). The aim of this study was to determine which criteria predict late toxicity among various DVH parameters when contouring the entire solid bladder and its contents versus the bladder wall. The area under the histogram curve (AUHC) was also analyzed. Methods and Materials: From 1993 to 2000, 503 men with prostate cancer received 3-dimensional conformal RT (median follow-up time, 71 months). The whole bladder and the bladder wall were contoured in all patients. The primary endpoint was grade ≥2 genitourinary (GU) toxicity occurring ≥3 months after completion of RT. Cox regressions of time to grade ≥2 toxicity were estimated separately for the entire bladder and bladder wall. Concordance probability estimates (CPE) assessed model discriminative ability. Before training the models, an external random test group of 100 men was set aside for testing. Separate analyses were performed based on the mean age (≤ 68 vs >68 years). Results: Age, pretreatment urinary symptoms, mean dose (entire bladder and bladder wall), and AUHC (entire bladder and bladder wall) were significant (P<.05) in multivariable analysis. Overall, bladder wall CPE values were higher than solid bladder values. The AUHC for bladder wall provided the greatest discrimination for late bladder toxicity when compared with alternative DVH points, with CPE values of 0.68 for age ≤68 years and 0.81 for age >68 years. Conclusion: The AUHC method based on bladder wall volumes was superior for predicting late GU toxicity. Age >68 years was associated with late grade ≥2 GU toxicity, which suggests that risk-adapted dose constraints based on age should be explored.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Fall Prevention in Community Settings: Results from Implementing Stepping On in Three States

Stepping On is a community-based intervention that has been shown in a randomized controlled trial to reduce fall risk. The Wisconsin Institute for Healthy Aging adapted Stepping On for use in the United States and developed a training infrastructure to enable dissemination. The purpose of this study is to: (1) describe the personal characteristics of Stepping On participants; (2) quantify participants’ functional and self-reported health status at enrollment, and (3) measure changes in participants’ functional and self-reported health status after completing the program. Both survey and observed functional status [timed up and go (TUG) test] data were collected between September 2011 and December 2013 for 366 participants enrolled in 32 Stepping On programs delivered in Colorado, New York, and Oregon. Paired t-tests and general estimating equations models adjusted for socio-demographic factors were performed to assess changes over the program period. Among the 266 participants with pre–post survey data, the average participant age was 78.7 (SD ± 8.0) years. Most participants were female (83.4%), white (96.9%), and in good health (49.4%). The TUG test scores decreased significantly (p < 0.001) for all 254 participants with pre–post data. The change was most noticeable among high risk participants where TUG time decreased from 17.6 to 14.4 s. The adjusted odds ratio of feeling confident about keeping from falling was more than three times greater after completing Stepping On. Further, the adjusted odds ratios of reporting “no difficulty” for getting out of a straight back chair increased by 89%. Intended for older adults who have fallen in the past or are afraid of falling, Stepping On has the potential to reduce the frequency and burden of older adult falls.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Body Mass Index at Accession and Incident Cardiometabolic Risk Factors in US Army Soldiers, 2001–2011

Individuals entering US Army service are generally young and healthy, but many are overweight, which may impact cardiometabolic risk despite physical activity and fitness requirements. This analysis examines the association between Soldiers’ BMI at accession and incident cardiometabolic risk factors (CRF) using longitudinal data from 731,014 Soldiers (17.0% female; age: 21.6 [3.9] years; BMI: 24.7 [3.8] kg/m 2 ) who were assessed at Army accession, 2001–2011. CRF were defined as incident diagnoses through 2011, by ICD-9 code, of metabolic syndrome, glucose/insulin disorder, hypertension, dyslipidemia, or overweight/obesity (in those not initially overweight/obese). Multivariable-adjusted proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) between BMI categories at accession and CRF. Initially underweight (BMI<18.5 kg/m 2 ) were 2.4% of Soldiers, 53.5% were normal weight (18.5-<25), 34.2% were overweight (25-<30), and 10.0% were obese (≥30). Mean age range at CRF diagnosis was 24–29 years old, with generally low CRF incidence: 228 with metabolic syndrome, 3,880 with a glucose/insulin disorder, 26,373 with hypertension, and 13,404 with dyslipidemia. Of the Soldiers who were not overweight or obese at accession, 5,361 were eventually diagnosed as overweight or obese. Relative to Soldiers who were normal weight at accession, those who were overweight or obese, respectively, had significantly higher risk of developing each CRF after multivariable adjustment (HR [95% CI]: metabolic syndrome: 4.13 [2.87–5.94], 13.36 [9.00–19.83]; glucose/insulin disorder: 1.39 [1.30–1.50], 2.76 [2.52–3.04]; hypertension: 1.85 [1.80–1.90], 3.31 [3.20–3.42]; dyslipidemia: 1.81 [1.75–1.89], 3.19 [3.04–3.35]). Risk of hypertension, dyslipidemia, and overweight/obesity in initially underweight Soldiers was 40%, 31%, and 79% lower, respectively, versus normal-weight Soldiers. BMI in early adulthood has important implications for cardiometabolic health, even within young, physically active populations.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Low serum zinc is associated with elevated risk of cadmium nephrotoxicity

Background: Despite animal evidence suggests that zinc modulates cadmium nephrotoxicity, limited human data are available. Objective: To test the hypothesis that low serum zinc concentrations may increase the risk of cadmium-mediated renal dysfunction in humans. Methods: Data from 1545 subjects aged 20 or older in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), 2011–2012 were analyzed. Renal function was defined as impaired when estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) fell below 60 ml/min/1.73 m{sup 2} and/or the urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio surpassed 2.5 in men and 3.5 mg/mmol in women. Results: Within the study cohort, 117 subjects had reduced eGFR and 214 had elevated urinary albumin. After adjusting for potential confounders, subjects with elevated blood cadmium (>0.53 μg/L) were more likely to have a reduced eGFR (odds ratio [OR]=2.21, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.09–4.50) and a higher urinary albumin (OR=2.04, 95% CI: 1.13–3.69) than their low cadmium (<0.18 μg/L) peers. In addition, for any given cadmium exposure, low serum zinc is associated with elevated risk of reduced eGFR (OR=3.38, 95% CI: 1.39–8.28). A similar increase in the odds ratio was observed between declining serum zinc and albuminuria but failed to reach statistical significance. Those with lower serum zinc/blood cadmium ratios were likewise at a greater risk of renal dysfunction (p<0.01). Conclusions: This study results suggest that low serum zinc concentrations are associated with an increased risk of cadmium nephrotoxicity. Elevated cadmium exposure is global public health issue and the assessment of zinc nutritional status may be an important covariate in determining its effective renal toxicity. - Highlights: • Blood cadmium was associated with increased risk of nephrotoxicity. • Low serum zinc may exacerbate risk of cadmium-mediated renal dysfunction. • Both zinc deficiency and elevated cadmium exposure are global public health issues. • Nutritional status is important in the assessment of cadmium nephrotoxicity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Position Index of Overhead LED Sources Under Different Spectral Power Distributions and Background Luminances

The position index was developed by Luckiesh and Guth in 1949 and is widely used in discomfort glare models to account for the position of the glare source when predicting the presence and magnitude of visual discomfort. The applicability of this index to modern LED sources has not been evaluated; however, it is of concern due to potentially higher luminance levels of LEDs compared to the sources used by Luckiesh and Guth. Furthermore, the position index of overhead sources beyond 60° above the line of sight has not been quantified. An experiment was conducted using a hemispherical apparatus with LED sources. The position of the light source, background luminance, the spectral power distribution, and anchor (starting luminance level before adjustment) were varied and two procedures were used to determine the position index of these sources. Data from 29 participants indicate that overhead sources located 60° or 80° above the line of sight were detectable and their position index can be quantified. The position index values were found to be higher than those reported in previous studies, suggesting that anchor bias and the small luminance range in previous studies likely influenced their position index values. No differences were found in position index values by spectral power distribution, background luminance, participant age group, or eyeglass wearing. In conclusion, the position index values reported in this study account for range and anchor bias, providing a better estimate that should be incorporated into discomfort glare models.

Discomfort glare↗

THE INITIAL MASS FUNCTION AND THE SURFACE DENSITY PROFILE OF NGC 6231

We have performed new wide-field photometry of the young open cluster NGC 6231 to study the shape of the initial mass function (IMF) and mass segregation. We also investigated the reddening law toward NGC 6231 from optical to mid-infrared color excess ratios, and found that the total-to-selective extinction ratio is R{sub V} = 3.2, which is very close to the normal value. But many early-type stars in the cluster center show large color excess ratios. We derived the surface density profiles of four member groups, and found that they reach the surface density of field stars at about 10', regardless of stellar mass. The IMF of NGC 6231 is derived for the mass range 0.8-45 M{sub Sun }. The slope of the IMF of NGC 6231 ({Gamma} = -1.1 {+-} 0.1) is slightly shallower than the canonical value, but the difference is marginal. In addition, the mass function varies systematically, and is a strong function of radius-it is very shallow at the center, and very steep at the outer ring suggesting the cluster is mass segregated. We confirm the mass segregation for the massive stars (m {approx}> 8 M{sub Sun }) by a minimum spanning tree analysis. Using a Monte Carlo method, we estimate the total mass of NGC 6231 to be about 2.6 ({+-} 0.6) Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 3} M{sub Sun }. We constrain the age of NGC 6231 by comparison with evolutionary isochrones. The age of the low-mass stars ranges from 1 to 7 Myr with a slight peak at 3 Myr. However, the age of the high-mass stars depends on the adopted models and is 3.5 {+-} 0.5 Myr from the non-rotating or moderately rotating models of Brott et al. as well as the non-rotating models of Ekstroem et al. But the age is 4.0-7.0 Myr if the rotating models of Ekstroem et al. are adopted. This latter age is in excellent agreement with the timescale of ejection of the high-mass runaway star HD 153919 from NGC 6231, albeit the younger age cannot be entirely excluded.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

THE PARSEC-SCALE ENVIRONMENT AND THE EVOLUTIONARY STATUS OF MWC 349A

We report on a study of the ∼10' (∼5 pc in projection) environs of the peculiar, high-luminosity emission-line star MWC 349A in the IR, radio, and visible domains. Besides the recently discovered X-shaped, arcmin-scale IR nebula centered on MWC 349A ({sup X} nebula{sup )}, with the kinematic age of ∼10{sup 4} yr, we identify several young objects pointing toward an ongoing process of active star formation in this region and estimate some physical parameters of the newly discovered objects. The radiation of the X nebula is due to a geometrically and optically thin dust front heated to T{sub d} ≈ 60-70 K by the radiation of the central star. The bipolar dust front probably results from the interaction of a powerful stellar wind with the circumstellar disk. One of the related objects is an elongated, cold molecular cloud, ∼1 pc in size, adjacent to MWC 349A in projection and having the same radial velocity (V{sub LSR} ≈ +9 km s{sup –1}). The proximity of the molecular cloud may indicate that MWC 349A was born locally rather than being a runaway object ejected from the core of Cyg OB2 several Myr ago. If it is still associated with its natal cloud, MWC 349A may be a rare example of the observable pre-main-sequence stage of a ∼30 M{sub ☉} star. If the association with the molecular cloud is an effect of projection, however, MWC 349A may already be an evolved star, even if it was born locally. We discuss future observations that may shed more light on the evolutionary status of this unique object.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A first-look atmospheric modeling study of the young directly imaged planet-mass companion, ROXS 42Bb

We present and analyze JK{sub s}L' photometry and our previously published H-band photometry and K-band spectroscopy for ROXs 42Bb, an object Currie et al. first reported as a young directly imaged planet-mass companion. ROXs 42Bb exhibits IR colors redder than field L dwarfs but consistent with other planet-mass companions. From the H{sub 2}O-2 spectral index, we estimate a spectral type of L0 ± 1; weak detections/non-detections of the CO bandheads, Na I, and Ca I support evidence for a young, low surface gravity object primarily derived from the H{sub 2}(K) index. ROXs 42Bb's photometry/K-band spectrum are inconsistent with limiting cases of dust-free atmospheres (COND) and marginally inconsistent with the AMES/DUSTY models and the BT-SETTL models. However, ROXS 42Bb data are simultaneously fit by atmosphere models incorporating several micron-sized dust grains entrained in thick clouds, although further modifications are needed to better reproduce the K-band spectral shape. ROXs 42Bb's best-estimated temperature is T {sub eff} ∼ 1950-2000 K, near the low end of the empirically derived range in Currie et al. For an age of ∼1-3 Myr and considering the lifetime of the protostar phase, ROXs 42Bb's luminosity of log(L/L {sub ☉}) ∼ –3.07 ± 0.07 implies a mass of 9{sub −3}{sup +3} M{sub J} , making it one of the lightest planetary-mass objects yet imaged.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Emergency department visits in California associated with wildfire PM 2.5 : differing risk across individuals and communities

The threats to human health from wildfires and wildfire smoke (WFS) in the United States (US) are increasing due to continued climate change. A growing body of literature has documented important adverse health effects of WFS exposure, but there is insufficient evidence regarding how risk related to WFS exposure varies across individual or community level characteristics. To address this evidence gap, we utilized a large nationwide database of healthcare utilization claims for emergency department (ED) visits in California across multiple wildfire seasons (May through November, 2012–2019) and quantified the health impacts of fine particulate matter <2.5 μm (PM 2.5 ) air pollution attributable to WFS, overall and among subgroups of the population. We aggregated daily counts of ED visits to the level of the Zip Code Tabulation Area (ZCTA) and used a time-stratified case-crossover design and distributed lag non-linear models to estimate the association between WFS and relative risk of ED visits. We further assessed how the association with WFS varied across subgroups defined by age, race, social vulnerability, and residential air conditioning (AC) prevalence. Over a 7 day period, PM 2.5 from WFS was associated with elevated risk of ED visits for all causes (1.04% (0.32%, 1.71%)), non-accidental causes (2.93% (2.16%, 3.70%)), and respiratory disease (15.17% (12.86%, 17.52%)), but not with ED visits for cardiovascular diseases (1.06% (–1.88%, 4.08%)). Analysis across subgroups revealed potential differences in susceptibility by age, race, and AC prevalence, but not across subgroups defined by ZCTA-level Social Vulnerability Index scores. These results suggest that PM 2.5 from WFS is associated with higher rates of all cause, non-accidental, and respiratory ED visits with important heterogeneity across certain subgroups. Notably, lower availability of residential AC was associated with higher health risks related to wildfire activity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Radiation Effects on Mortality from Solid Cancers Other than Lung, Liver, and Bone Cancer in the Mayak Worker Cohort: 1948–2008

Radiation effects on mortality from solid cancers other than lung, liver, and bone cancer in the Mayak worker cohort: 1948–2008. The cohort of Mayak Production Association (PA) workers in Russia offers a unique opportunity to study the effects of prolonged low dose rate external gamma exposures and exposure to plutonium in a working age population. We examined radiation effects on the risk of mortality from solid cancers excluding sites of primary plutonium deposition (lung, liver, and bone surface) among 25,757 workers who were first employed in 1948–1982. During the period 1948–2008, there were 1,825 deaths from cancers other than lung, liver and bone. Using colon dose as a representative external dose, a linear dose response model described the data well. The excess relative risk per Gray for external gamma exposure was 0.16 (95% CI: 0.07 – 0.26) when unadjusted for plutonium exposure and 0.12 (95% CI 0.03 – 0.21) when adjusted for plutonium dose and monitoring status. There was no significant effect modification by sex or attained age. Plutonium exposure was not significantly associated with the group of cancers analyzed after adjusting for monitoring status. Site-specific risks were uncertainly estimated but positive for 13 of the 15 sites evaluated with a statistically significant estimate only for esophageal cancer. Comparison with estimates based on the acute exposures in atomic bomb survivors suggests that the excess relative risk per Gray for prolonged external exposure in Mayak workers may be lower than that for acute exposure but, given the uncertainties, the possibility of equal effects cannot be dismissed.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Measurements Conducted on an Unknown Object Labeled Pu-239

Measurements were carried out on 12 November 2013 to determine whether Pu-239 was present on an object discovered in a plastic bag with label “Pu-­239 6 uCi.” Following initial survey measurements to verify that the object was not leaking or contaminated, spectra were collected with a High Purity Germanium (HPGe) detector with object positioned in two different configurations. Analysis of the spectra did not yield any direct evidence of Pu-­239. From the measured spectra, minimum detectable activity (MDA) was determined to be approximately 2 uCi for the gamma-­ray measurements. Although there was no direct evidence of Pu-239, a peak at 60 keV characteristic of Am-­241 decay was observed. Since it is very likely that Am-­241 would be present in aged plutonium samples, this was interpreted as indirect evidence for the presence of plutonium on the object. Analysis of this peak led to an estimated Pu-­239 activity of 0.02–0.04 uCi, or <1x10 -6 grams.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

The first brown dwarf/planetary-mass object in the 32 Orionis group

The 32 Orionis group is a co-moving group of roughly 20 young (24 Myr) M3-B5 stars 100 pc from the Sun. Here we report the discovery of its first substellar member, WISE J052857.69+090104.2. This source was previously reported to be an M giant star based on its unusual near-infrared spectrum and lack of measureable proper motion. We re-analyze previous data and new moderate-resolution spectroscopy from Magellan/Folded-port InfraRed Echellette to demonstrate that this source is a young near-infrared L1 brown dwarf with very low surface gravity features. Spectral model fits indicate T{sub eff} = 1880{sub −70}{sup +150} K and logg = 3.8{sub −0.2}{sup +0.2}, consistent with a 15–22 Myr object with a mass near the deuterium-burning limit. Its sky position, estimated distance, kinematics (both proper motion and radial velocity), and spectral characteristics are all consistent with membership in 32 Orionis, and its temperature and age imply a mass (M = 14{sub −3}{sup +4} M{sub J}) that straddles the brown dwarf/planetary-mass object boundary. The source has a somewhat red J−W2 color compared to other L1 dwarfs, but this is likely a low-gravity-related temperature offset; we find no evidence of significant excess reddening from a disk or cool companion in the 3–5 μm waveband.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Late Holocene glacier and climate fluctuations in the Mackenzie and Selwyn mountain ranges, northwestern Canada

Over the last century, northwestern Canada experienced some of the highest rates of tropospheric warming globally, which caused glaciers in the region to rapidly retreat. Our study seeks to extend the record of glacier fluctuations and assess climate drivers prior to the instrumental record in the Mackenzie and Selwyn mountains of northwestern Canada. We collected 27 10 Be surface exposure ages across nine cirque and valley glacier moraines to constrain the timing of their emplacement. Cirque and valley glaciers in this region reached their greatest Holocene extents in the latter half of the Little Ice Age (1600–1850 CE). Four erratic boulders, 10–250 m distal from late Holocene moraines, yielded 10 Be exposure ages of 10.9–11.6 ka, demonstrating that by ca. 11 ka, alpine glaciers were no more extensive than during the last several hundred years. Estimated temperature change obtained through reconstruction of equilibrium line altitudes shows that since ca. 1850 CE, mean annual temperatures have risen 0.2–2.3 °C. We use our glacier chronology and the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM) to estimate that from 1000 CE, glaciers in this region reached a maximum total volume of 34–38 km 3 between 1765 and 1855 CE and had lost nearly half their ice volume by 2019 CE. OGGM was unable to produce modeled glacier lengths that match the timing or magnitude of the maximum glacier extent indicated by the 10 Be chronology. However, when applied to the entire Mackenzie and Selwyn mountain region, past millennium OGGM simulations using the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) and the Community Climate System Model 4 (CCSM4) yield late Holocene glacier volume change temporally consistent with our moraine and remote sensing record, while the Meteorological Research Institute Earth System Model 2 (MRI-ESM2) and the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC) fail to produce modeled glacier change consistent with our glacier chronology. Finally, OGGM forced by future climate projections under varying greenhouse gas emission scenarios predicts 85 % to over 97 % glacier volume loss by the end of the 21st century. The loss of glaciers from this region will have profound impacts on local ecosystems and communities that rely on meltwater from glacierized catchments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Metal-poor stars. IV - The evolution of red giants.

Detailed evolutionary calculations for six Population-II red giants are presented. The first five of these models are followed from the zero age main sequence to the onset of the helium flash. The sixth model allows the effect of direct electron-neutrino interactions to be estimated. The updated input physics and evolutionary code are described briefly. The results of the calculations are presented in a manner pertinent to later stages of evolutions and suitable for comparison with observations.

Rood, R. T.↗