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NASA NTRS1992

Research in computational fluid dynamics and analysis of algorithms

Recently, higher-order compact schemes have seen increasing use in the DNS (Direct Numerical Simulations) of the Navier-Stokes equations. Although they do not have the spatial resolution of spectral methods, they offer significant increases in accuracy over conventional second order methods. They can be used on any smooth grid, and do not have an overly restrictive CFL dependence as compared with the O(N(exp -2)) CFL dependence observed in Chebyshev spectral methods on finite domains. In addition, they are generally more robust and less costly than spectral methods. The issue of the relative cost of higher-order schemes (accuracy weighted against physical and numerical cost) is a far more complex issue, depending ultimately on what features of the solution are sought and how accurately they must be resolved. In any event, the further development of the underlying stability theory of these schemes is important. The approach of devising suitable boundary clusters and then testing them with various stability techniques (such as finding the norm) is entirely the wrong approach when dealing with high-order methods. Very seldom are high-order boundary closures stable, making them difficult to isolate. An alternative approach is to begin with a norm which satisfies all the stability criteria for the hyperbolic system, and look for the boundary closure forms which will match the norm exactly. This method was used recently by Strand to isolate stable boundary closure schemes for the explicit central fourth- and sixth-order schemes. The norm used was an energy norm mimicking the norm for the differential equations. Further research should be devoted to BC for high order schemes in order to make sure that the results obtained are reliable. The compact fourth order and sixth order finite difference scheme had been incorporated into a code to simulate flow past circular cylinders. This code will serve as a verification of the full spectral codes. A detailed stability analysis by Carpenter (from the fluid Mechanics Division) and Gottlieb gave analytic conditions for stability as well as asymptotic stability. This had been incorporated in the code in form of stable boundary conditions. Effects of the cylinder rotations had been studied. The results differ from the known theoretical results. We are in the middle of analyzing the results. A detailed analysis of the effects of the heating of the cylinder on the shedding frequency had been studied using the above schemes. It has been found that the shedding frequency decreases when the wire was heated. Experimental work is being carried out to affirm this result.

Gottlieb, David↗

DOE OSTI2015

MODULES FOR EXPERIMENTS IN STELLAR ASTROPHYSICS (MESA): BINARIES, PULSATIONS, AND EXPLOSIONS

We substantially update the capabilities of the open-source software instrument Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics (MESA). MESA can now simultaneously evolve an interacting pair of differentially rotating stars undergoing transfer and loss of mass and angular momentum, greatly enhancing the prior ability to model binary evolution. New MESA capabilities in fully coupled calculation of nuclear networks with hundreds of isotopes now allow MESA to accurately simulate the advanced burning stages needed to construct supernova progenitor models. Implicit hydrodynamics with shocks can now be treated with MESA, enabling modeling of the entire massive star lifecycle, from pre-main-sequence evolution to the onset of core collapse and nucleosynthesis from the resulting explosion. Coupling of the GYRE non-adiabatic pulsation instrument with MESA allows for new explorations of the instability strips for massive stars while also accelerating the astrophysical use of asteroseismology data. We improve the treatment of mass accretion, giving more accurate and robust near-surface profiles. A new MESA capability to calculate weak reaction rates “on-the-fly” from input nuclear data allows better simulation of accretion induced collapse of massive white dwarfs and the fate of some massive stars. We discuss the ongoing challenge of chemical diffusion in the strongly coupled plasma regime, and exhibit improvements in MESA that now allow for the simulation of radiative levitation of heavy elements in hot stars. We close by noting that the MESA software infrastructure provides bit-for-bit consistency for all results across all the supported platforms, a profound enabling capability for accelerating MESA's development.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Simulations of Water Flow in Relation to a Steady Criticality in an Unsaturated Alluvial Repository

Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) is examining the conditions under which a criticality event could be ruled out for large packages placed in an unsaturated alluvial repository. This work specifically examines the water level in a stylized waste package that is assumed (1) to fail on the top, and (2) to empty as water is driven away—not by boiling—but by fluid flow phenomena driven by thermal gradients. This analysis uses the PFLOTRAN code package. Specifically, this year’s work includes examination of the heat rate at which water is driven away for various percolation rates using the same assumptions listed in the 2022 annual report. The STANDARDS (formerly UNF-ST&DARDS) package has predicted dual-purpose canister (DPC) neutron multiplication factors (k-effectives) ranging above 1.1 (unitless) with failed components. The DPC designs were not created with the intent to use for disposal purposes. Emplacing such packages may be worth consideration if it can be shown that criticality is either extremely unlikely or of very low consequence to the repository’s safety case. This work aims to help establish hydrologic boundary conditions for a highly hypothetical, highly stylized subsurface criticality event. The approach to critical is assumed to be slow, producing steady heating rates under a few kilowatts. For a DPC containing capillary media, the simulated power required for dry-out was proportional to the percolation rate but was unaffected by the size of a large breech on top of the DPC. Results for single cases with no capillary media in the DPC suggest that higher infiltration rates may be required in those cases to cause flooding. Bounding mechanisms and assumptions must be identified and characterized further by performing additional perturbations to various input parameters to demonstrate robustness of the results. This might be accomplished by examining responses to power pulses to determine the system transfer function required to enable a reduced order feedback model.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2021

Transfer Learning using Denoising Auto-Encoders for Cellular-Level Annotation of Tumor in Pathology Slides

Adversarial examples can produce altered classifications using only seemingly innocuous, imperceptible perturbations to the original image. The imperceptibility of adversarial perturbations suggests that the corresponding classifiers use decision criteria different than those of a human. In a medical setting, inexplicable decision criteria confound a pathologist’s willingness to trust machine-generated annotations. Here, we analyze denoising tumor detection models to see if they are robust to imperceptible adversarial perturbations. Moreover, to be more fully trusted by pathologists, we require tumor detectors that generate interpretable annotations which segment pathology slides into tumorous and normal regions at the cellular level. We therefore compare transfer learning based on two different autoencoder architectures, one derived from a deep denoising bottleneck autoencoder and one from an over-complete sparse autoencoder. Both autoencoders were first trained in an unsupervised manner on a set of pathology slides drawn from the Camelyon16 dataset. The latent representations produced by each autoencoder were then passed to separate neural networks that were trained in a supervised manner on binary tumor-normal masks generated by pathologists at cellular resolution. Both tumor detectors supported better than 90% AUC PR as measured by the area under the precision/recall curve on a held-out pathology slide. To assess the underlying decision criteria used by both tumor detectors, we constructed imperceptible adversarial examples which reduced the AUC PR of both models to less than 70%. Random noise of the same amplitude had almost no effect on the AUC PR of either model. Additionally, each tumor detector was resistant to adversarial “transfer” attacks targeting the other. The adversarial perturbations showed strong characteristic differences: the deep denoising models perturbations were a very diffuse, seemingly unrecognizable pattern while the sparse coding models perturbations showed traces of tissue cells.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Application of linear prolongation to coarse mesh finite difference acceleration in CASMO5

The Coarse-Mesh Finite Difference (CMFD) method has been used for over a decade to accelerate the convergence of the Method of Characteristics (MOC) solution to the two- dimensional particle transport equation in CASMO5. Numerical testing, along with widespread use in production-level calculations, have shown that the current CMFD implementation provides stability and robustness for a wide range of realistic reactor physics problems. However, the recent development of linear prolongation has attracted attention from the community as a way to further improve the performance and stability of CMFD. Two interpolation methods for linear prolongation are presented in this work and implemented into a test version of CASMO5. The performance of the proposed interpolations, referred to as the bilinear and linear directional schemes, is evaluated in terms of runtime relative to the default constant or uniform scaling update. Numerical results indicate that the use of linear prolongation can reduce the transport solver runtime on average by approximately 10% when tested with two hundred randomly selected cases. The new directional linear interpolation, combined with default constant boundary updates, is found to provide the highest reduction in runtime for the cases analyzed. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2015

Predictive Maturity of Multi-Scale Simulation Models for Fuel Performance

The project proposed to provide a Predictive Maturity Framework with its companion metrics that (1) introduce a formalized, quantitative means to communicate information between interested parties, (2) provide scientifically dependable means to claim completion of Validation and Uncertainty Quantification (VU) activities, and (3) guide the decision makers in the allocation of Nuclear Energy’s resources for code development and physical experiments. The project team proposed to develop this framework based on two complimentary criteria: (1) the extent of experimental evidence available for the calibration of simulation models and (2) the sophistication of the physics incorporated in simulation models. The proposed framework is capable of quantifying the interaction between the required number of physical experiments and degree of physics sophistication. The project team has developed this framework and implemented it with a multi-scale model for simulating creep of a core reactor cladding. The multi-scale model is composed of the viscoplastic self-consistent (VPSC) code at the meso-scale, which represents the visco-plastic behavior and changing properties of a highly anisotropic material and a Finite Element (FE) code at the macro-scale to represent the elastic behavior and apply the loading. The framework developed takes advantage of the transparency provided by partitioned analysis, where independent constituent codes are coupled in an iterative manner. This transparency allows model developers to better understand and remedy the source of biases and uncertainties, whether they stem from the constituents or the coupling interface by exploiting separate-effect experiments conducted within the constituent domain and integral-effect experiments conducted within the full-system domain. The project team has implemented this procedure with the multi- scale VPSC-FE model and demonstrated its ability to improve the predictive capability of the model. Within this framework, the project team has focused on optimizing resource allocation for improving numerical models through further code development and experimentation. Related to further code development, we have developed a code prioritization index (CPI) for coupled numerical models. CPI is implemented to effectively improve the predictive capability of the coupled model by increasing the sophistication of constituent codes. In relation to designing new experiments, we investigated the information gained by the addition of each new experiment used for calibration and bias correction of a simulation model. Additionally, the variability of ‘information gain’ through the design domain has been investigated in order to identify the experiment settings where maximum information gain occurs and thus guide the experimenters in the selection of the experiment settings. This idea was extended to evaluate the information gain from each experiment can be improved by intelligently selecting the experiments, leading to the development of the Batch Sequential Design (BSD) technique. Additionally, we evaluated the importance of sufficiently exploring the domain of applicability in experiment-based validation of high-consequence modeling and simulation by developing a new metric to quantify coverage. This metric has also been incorporated into the design of new experiments. Finally, we have proposed a data-aware calibration approach for the calibration of numerical models. This new method considers the complexity of a numerical model (the number of parameters to be calibrated, parameter uncertainty, and form of the model) and seeks to identify the number of experiments necessary to calibrate the model based on the level of sophistication of the physics. The final component in the project team’s work to improve model calibration and validation methods is the incorporation of robustness to non-probabilistic uncertainty in the input parameters. This is an improvement to model validation and uncertainty quantification stemming beyond the originally proposed scope of the project. We have introduced a new metric for incorporating the concept of robustness into experiment-based validation of numerical models. This project has accounted for the graduation of two Ph.D. students (Kendra Van Buren and Josh Hegenderfer) and two M.S. students (Matthew Egeberg and Parker Shields). One of the doctoral students is now working in the nuclear engineering field and the other one is a post-doctoral fellow at the Los Alamos National Laboratory. Additionally, two more Ph.D. students (Garrison Stevens and Tunc Kulaksiz) who are working towards graduation have been supported by this project.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Distributed Simulation-to-Flight Framework to Support Investigating Trust/Trustworthiness in Multi-Agent Systems

As autonomous systems continue to grow both in use and complexity, the necessity for robust and extensible simulation-to-flight methods is paramount for establishing an effective architecture for autonomous systems. A fundamental objective of the ATTRACTOR (Autonomy Teaming and TRAjectories for Complex Trusted Operational Reliability) project was to design and develop a distributed mixed-reality simulation environment to begin establishing a basis for certification of autonomous systems via research into trust and trustworthiness. In this paper, we present an autonomous systems architecture and development framework paired with a persistent distributed modeling and simulation environment for test and evaluation of autonomous systems. The Autonomous Entity Operations Network (AEON) framework enables autonomous system development with an easily extensible collection of libraries and plug-n-play nodes facilitated by the Data Distribution Service (DDS) communication protocol standard. The Baseline Environment for Autonomous Modeling (BEAM) simulation environment is a distributed mixed-reality Unity™-based environment built around the same DDS communication paradigm allowing for easy integration with AEON-based autonomous applications. They were designed under ATTRACTOR in order to measure and establish trustworthiness and trust in single- and multi-agent human-machine systems whether these machines are fixed-wing general aviation, rotary-wing Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), ground rovers, or even spacecraft. Together AEON and BEAM enable sim-to-flight with minimal configuration changes. By using AEON and BEAM, source code that runs in simulation ports directly to hardware and has successfully flown in the lab and in the National Airspace System (NAS) at NASA LaRC many times over the lifetime of ATTRACTOR.

Benjamin N Kelley↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Distributed Simulation-to-Flight Framework to Support Investigating Trust/Trustworthiness in Multi-Agent Systems

Benjamin N Kelley↗

DOE OSTI2021

Flattening the Radial Temperature Profile across the Transformational Challenge Reactor Core

The Transformational Challenge Reactor (TCR) program is demonstrating an agile development approach to advanced nuclear reactor design, which has traditionally utilized a linear design process. In leveraging artificial intelligence, additive manufacturing, advanced materials, and cutting-edge modeling and simulation, the TCR program aims to minimize the high cost and lengthy deployment timelines now standard in the nuclear industry. Within a relatively short period of time, a robust and mature advanced gas-cooled reactor was iteratively designed under the TCR program, using these cutting-edge technologies. The TCR is a 3 MWt gas-cooled microreactor fueled with uranium nitride (UN) tristructural isotropic (TRISO) fuel particles. Though manufactured via traditional means, these UN TRISO particles are loaded into additively manufactured silicon carbide (SiC) cans [4]. Once loaded with TRISO particles, the SiC cans are densified using a chemical vapor infiltration process. The additively manufactured SiC enables significantly more freedom in the design of the fuel form than could ever be achieved using traditionally manufactured SiC. The helium coolant, pressurized to 5 MPa, enters the core at 300°C and nominally exits it at 500°C. Typically, the most thermally limiting components in any reactor design are the fuel assemblies in the core center. To provide a wide thermal margin in these central fuel assemblies, the flow may be biased toward the center of the core to more effectively cool these fuel assemblies with more power deposition and flatten the core’s radial temperature distribution. An analytical fluid model of the TCR core was developed to explore methods for biasing the flow away from the cooler outer fuel assemblies and towards the hotter inner ones. Higher-fidelity models developed in STAR-CCM+ 2020.3.1, a computational fluid dynamics code, were then utilized to verify the analytical model’s findings.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2014

Noise Decoherence and Errors from Entanglement-function Theory for Quantum Computing

A significant problem in quantum computing is the development of physical realizations of algorithms that are robust against noise. One way to examine and mitigate noise would be to simulate large sets of qubits coupling to the external environment on classical computers. This is extremely challenging as quantum information processing is in some sense tied to computing resources that scale exponentially with the number of computing elements (qubits). In this LDRD, we set the foundation for a computational framework potentially allowing simulations of 1000s of qubits vs. 10s now possible. Exact wave-function-based methods demand exponentially increasing resources with system size. The method proposed, entanglement-functional theory (EFT), requires vastly fewer resources. The crucial step is to map the information contained in the wave-functions into a simpler object with associated 1.) auxiliary gate operations and 2.) entanglement functionals of this object. This is similar to the Time-dependent Density Functional Theory (TDDFT) approach that has revolutionized chemistry and materials science. Instead of dealing with the exponentially large wave-function, EFT works with a polynomially large set of projections (the density) that are easily manipulated through unitary operations. For a given set of quantum gates, an isomorphism exists that relates the sequence of events to the time-dependent density. A system of entangled qubits can be simulated at drastically reduced cost relative to existing state-of-the-art vector-state simulation codes.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2016

Addressing numerical challenges in introducing a reactive transport code into a land surface model: a biogeochemical modeling proof-of-concept with CLM–PFLOTRAN 1.0

Abstract. We explore coupling to a configurable subsurface reactive transport code as a flexible and extensible approach to biogeochemistry in land surface models. A reaction network with the Community Land Model carbon–nitrogen (CLM-CN) decomposition, nitrification, denitrification, and plant uptake is used as an example. We implement the reactions in the open-source PFLOTRAN (massively parallel subsurface flow and reactive transport) code and couple it with the CLM. To make the rate formulae designed for use in explicit time stepping in CLMs compatible with the implicit time stepping used in PFLOTRAN, the Monod substrate rate-limiting function with a residual concentration is used to represent the limitation of nitrogen availability on plant uptake and immobilization. We demonstrate that CLM–PFLOTRAN predictions (without invoking PFLOTRAN transport) are consistent with CLM4.5 for Arctic, temperate, and tropical sites.Switching from explicit to implicit method increases rigor but introduces numerical challenges. Care needs to be taken to use scaling, clipping, or log transformation to avoid negative concentrations during the Newton iterations. With a tight relative update tolerance (STOL) to avoid false convergence, an accurate solution can be achieved with about 50 % more computing time than CLM in point mode site simulations using either the scaling or clipping methods. The log transformation method takes 60–100 % more computing time than CLM. The computing time increases slightly for clipping and scaling; it increases substantially for log transformation for half saturation decrease from 10-3 to 10-9 mol m-3, which normally results in decreasing nitrogen concentrations. The frequent occurrence of very low concentrations (e.g. below nanomolar) can increase the computing time for clipping or scaling by about 20 %, double for log transformation. Overall, the log transformation method is accurate and robust, and the clipping and scaling methods are efficient. When the reaction network is highly nonlinear or the half saturation or residual concentration is very low, the allowable time-step cuts may need to be increased for robustness for the log transformation method, or STOL may need to be tightened for the clipping and scaling methods to avoid false convergence.As some biogeochemical processes (e.g., methane and nitrous oxide reactions) involve very low half saturation and thresholds, this work provides insights for addressing nonphysical negativity issues and facilitates the representation of a mechanistic biogeochemical description in Earth system models to reduce climate prediction uncertainty.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Simulation of shell pellet injection strategies for ITER-scale tokamaks

Dispersive shell pellet (DSP) injection is considered as an alternative to shattered pellet injection as a disruption mitigation system for ITER, and strategies for penetration of a shell pellet into ITER are modeled with the 3D MHD code NIMROD. Because the high plasma temperatures lead to rapid ablation of the shell, delivery of the dispersive payload to the core of ITER will be very challenging. Two strategies to increase payload delivery depth are modeled: first, multiple staggered pellets are simulated in DIII-D, to assess the ability for one DSP to "piggy-back" on another to reach deeper into the core; second, DSP injection after pre-dilution-cooling with deuterium is simulated in ITER, in order to reduce the plasma temperature before shell pellet arrival. The DIII-D simulations show that a second, slower pellet can penetrate much deeper once the release of the first payload strongly cools the mid-radius region. When the pellets are staggered, deeper penetration of the second pellet leads to higher radiation fraction and larger runaway electron loss fraction, consistent with single pellet results. However, simultaneously released pellets at mid-radius that do not trigger a large n=1 mode produce an even higher radiation fraction. The ITER simulations show that an inside-out TQ can be produced with a payload release just inside of the q=2 surface, which is achieved at a speed of 800 m/s after pre-dilution cooling. Although stochastization of the core leads to a complete thermal quench, the edge flux surfaces are surprisingly robust in the ITER simulations, regardless of payload release location. As a result, runaway electron losses would not be expected.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2017

Practical Considerations for the Implementation of a World Information Library (WIL) - 17112

The U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is a deep geologic repository for the permanent disposal of defense-generated transuranic waste. Title 40 Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) Part 194.43, Passive institutional controls, requires that measures be employed, '...to preserve knowledge about the location, design, and contents of the [WIPP] disposal system'. These measures include the, 'Placement of records in the archives and land record systems of local, State, and Federal governments, as well as international archives, that would likely be consulted by individuals in search of unexploited resources'. One possibility for allowing individuals to quickly and easily access information on the location, design, and contents of a disposal system and its relation to unexploited resources is the development of an electronic geographic information system (GIS) that would be used to interpret spatial data. In 2016, R. Patterson proposed such a system, known as the 'World Information Library (WIL)'. Information in this database system would be designed to be publicly accessible through a simple web-based user interface that would focus on spatial databases with categories such as; waste repositories, resources, historical sites, wildlife, infrastructure, medicine, agriculture, and technology. The conceptual WIL would be a compilation of searchable libraries and databases. A category in the WIL would consist of spatial databases created for the purpose of preserving knowledge and providing a means of communicating location information in a GIS-based Land Use Information System (LUIS) user interface. The successful implementation of the WIL would require the robust use of project controls, an effective Quality Assurance program, and the development of international standards in collaboration with industry experts. The purpose of this paper is to identify and discuss known practices and industry standards that could be utilized for the implementation of a WIL as was introduced by Patterson et al. in 'A Conceptual World Information Library (WIL) and Land Use Information System (LUIS)'. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2021

Through-Thickness Microstructure Characterization in a Centrifugally Cast Austenitic Stainless Steel Nuclear Reactor Primary Loop Pipe Using Time-of-Flight Neutron Diffraction

The US code of Federal Regulations mandates regular inspection of centrifugally cast austenitic stainless steel pipe, commonly used in primary cooling loops in light-water nuclear power plants. These pipes typically have a wall thickness of ~8 cm. Unfortunately, inspection using conventional ultrasonic techniques is not reliable as the microstructure strongly attenuates ultrasonic waves. Work is ongoing to simulate the behavior of acoustic waves in this microstructure and ultimately develop an acoustic inspection method for reactor inspections. In order to account for elastic anisotropy in the material, the texture in the steel was measured as a function of radial distance though the pipe wall. Experiments were conducted on two 10 × 12.7 × 80 mm radial sections of a cast pipe using neutron diffraction scans of 2 mm slices using the HIPPO time-of-flight neutron diffractometer at the Los Alamos Neutron Science Center (LANSCE, Los Alamos, NM, USA). Strong textures dominated by a small number of austenite grains with their (100) direction aligned in the radial direction of the pipe were observed. ODF analysis indicated that up to 70% of the probed volume was occupied by just three single-grain orientations, consistent with grain sizes of almost 1 cm. Texture and phase fraction of both ferrite and austenite phases were measured along the length of the samples. These results will inform the development of a more robust diagnostic tool for regular inspection of this material.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2016

PROGENITOR-DEPENDENT EXPLOSION DYNAMICS IN SELF-CONSISTENT, AXISYMMETRIC SIMULATIONS OF NEUTRINO-DRIVEN CORE-COLLAPSE SUPERNOVAE

We present self-consistent, axisymmetric core-collapse supernova simulations performed with the Prometheus-Vertex code for 18 pre-supernova models in the range of 11–28 M {sub ⊙}, including progenitors recently investigated by other groups. All models develop explosions, but depending on the progenitor structure, they can be divided into two classes. With a steep density decline at the Si/Si–O interface, the arrival of this interface at the shock front leads to a sudden drop of the mass-accretion rate, triggering a rapid approach to explosion. With a more gradually decreasing accretion rate, it takes longer for the neutrino heating to overcome the accretion ram pressure and explosions set in later. Early explosions are facilitated by high mass-accretion rates after bounce and correspondingly high neutrino luminosities combined with a pronounced drop of the accretion rate and ram pressure at the Si/Si–O interface. Because of rapidly shrinking neutron star radii and receding shock fronts after the passage through their maxima, our models exhibit short advection timescales, which favor the efficient growth of the standing accretion-shock instability. The latter plays a supportive role at least for the initiation of the re-expansion of the stalled shock before runaway. Taking into account the effects of turbulent pressure in the gain layer, we derive a generalized condition for the critical neutrino luminosity that captures the explosion behavior of all models very well. We validate the robustness of our findings by testing the influence of stochasticity, numerical resolution, and approximations in some aspects of the microphysics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2022

Bayesian Rules of Thumb: Robust Uncertainty Quantification in Early Project Cost Estimation

Systems engineers often make use of cost Rules ofThumb in order to estimate cost during early phases of projectformulation. These Rules of Thumb typically take the form ofa sequence of percentages over which a total cost is allocatedacross NASA WBS elements. Rules of Thumb can then be usedto extrapolate cost from one or more known WBS elements tothe remaining unknown WBS elements, assisting early projectformulation architecture studies (such as those in JPL’s Team Xand A Team).A number of issues can arise when generating and using costRules of Thumb. For example, many records of project costsconsist of incomplete data. Typical methods of dealing withincomplete cost allocation data include (a) ignoring missionswith incomplete data, or (b) taking averages of the non-zero percentagesacross missions, but both of these methods can result inbiased estimates if the existence of incomplete data correlateswith total mission cost or any particular WBS element. Anothercommon example is cost reported in one or more incorrect WBSelements. This is especially prevalent in smaller missions whereit is more common for engineers to perform tasks that fall underthe purview of multiple WBS elements.Furthermore, a Rule of Thumb estimate is typically reported asa point estimate; there is no reported uncertainty around thepercentages used to generate an allocation. Even in the rarecase in which confidence intervals around mean percentages areprovided, there may be positive or negative correlations betweenWBS elements which can skew estimates.Here we attempt to address these problems by formulatingprobabilistic Rules of Thumb in which a distribution of allocationschemes, rather than a single allocation scheme, is generated.We use a bootstrap imputation method to simultaneouslyaccount for uncertainty in the missing data while using allavailable information contained in the dataset. The imputeddatasets are then input into a multivariate Bayesian modelwhich accounts for correlations between WBS elements andproperly accounts for uncertainty in the final Rule of Thumbpercentages and predictions. We describe the mathematicalmodel and provides snippets of R code utilizing the brms(Bayesian Regression Models using Stan) package. To illustratethis model, we generate a Bayesian Level 2 WBS Cost Rule ofThumb for MIDEX (Medium-Class Explorers) missions withdata extracted from NASA’s CADRe. We then compare thismethod’s performance with the classical Rule of Thumb method.

Hooke, Melissa A↗

DOE OSTI2014

A robust method for handling low density regions in hybrid simulations for collisionless plasmas

A robust method to handle vacuum and near vacuum regions in hybrid simulations for space and astrophysical plasmas is presented. The conventional hybrid simulation model dealing with kinetic ions and a massless charge-neutralizing electron fluid is known to be susceptible to numerical instability due to divergence of the whistler-mode wave dispersion, as well as division-by-density operation in regions of low density. Consequently, a pure vacuum region is not allowed to exist in the simulation domain unless some ad hoc technique is used. To resolve this difficulty, an alternative way to introduce finite electron inertia effect is proposed. Contrary to the conventional method, the proposed one introduces a correction to the electric field rather than the magnetic field. It is shown that the generalized Ohm's law correctly reduces to Laplace's equation in a vacuum which therefore does not involve any numerical problems. In addition, a variable ion-to-electron mass ratio is introduced to reduce the phase velocity of high frequency whistler waves at low density regions so that the stability condition is always satisfied. It is demonstrated that the proposed model is able to handle near vacuum regions generated as a result of nonlinear self-consistent development of the system, as well as pure vacuum regions set up at the initial condition, without losing the advantages of the standard hybrid code.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Prediction of transport in the JET DTE2 discharges with TGLF and NEO models using the TGYRO transport code

Abstract The JET Deuterium-Tritium-Experiment Campaign 2 (DTE2) has demonstrated the highest-ever fusion energy production. To forecast the transport dynamics within these discharges, the TGLF and NEO models within the TGYRO transport code were employed. A critical development in this study is the new quasilinear transport model, TGLF-SAT2, specifically designed to resolve discrepancies identified in JET deuterium discharges. This model accurately describes the saturated three-dimensional (3D) fluctuation spectrum, aligning closely with a database of nonlinear CGYRO turbulence simulations, thereby enhancing the predictive accuracy of TGYRO simulations. In validating against the JET DTE2 discharges across two primary operating scenarios, TGYRO effectively predicted the temperature profiles within a broad radial window ( ρ ∼ 0.2–0.85), though with minor ion temperature discrepancies near the core. However, a consistent underprediction of electron density profiles by 20% across the simulation domain was noted, indicating areas for future refinement. To achieve a self-consistent steady-state solution based on the JET DTE2 discharges, an integrated modeling workflow TGYRO-STEP within the OMFIT framework was introduced. This workflow iterates among the core transport, the pedestal pressure and the MHD equilibrium, ultimately yielding a converged solution that significantly reduces dependence on experimental boundary conditions for temperature and density profiles. The integrated simulation results show negligible differences in electron density and temperature profiles compared to standalone TGYRO modeling, while the ion temperature profile is lower due to the updated boundary condition in TGYRO-STEP. The application of the TGYRO-STEP workflow to JET DTE2 discharges serves as a crucial test to validate its robustness and highlights its limitations, providing valuable insights for its potential future application in ITER and Fusion Power Plant deuterium and tritium prediction modeling.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗