Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Error”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,279 records · Page 71
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2019

Measurement Error Variance Estimation in Gamma-Spectroscopy Data using FRAM

The FRAM gamma-ray isotopic analysis code has recently been applied to four Pu data sets and four U data sets, each with relatively well-characterized standard items, in order to estimate the variances of random errors and of item-specific systematic errors. Assay results are available for Pu238, Pu239, Pu240, Pu241, Pu242 (operator entered, not independently measured), Am241, Specific Power, and Pu240eff. For the four U data sets, results are available for the measurands U234, U235, U236 (operator entered, not independently measured), and U238. For example, in Pu data set 1, there are 33 standard reference Pu items, which have well-known nominal/true values (except for a few items). FRAM was used to make approximately 15 repeat measurements for each of the 33 items, so empirical standard deviations can be calculated. In addition, FRAM internally estimates its random error variance using propagation of variance. This paper applies analysis of variance (ANOVA) to separately estimate the repeatability standard deviation and the standard deviation of the item-specific biases δ s in each of the 8 data sets.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2020

EFCOG Human Performance Improvement Task Group: Task 20-2, Asking Better Error Precursor Questions for Effective Job Planning, Pre-Job Briefs, and Event Investigations

The second principle of human performance states: “error-likely situations are predictable, manageable, and preventable.” An error-likely situation comes into play when task-related factors exceed the capabilities of the individual, creating a mismatch at the point when the individual is “touching” either the physical or the paper plant. The simple presence of adverse conditions cannot be error-likely unless a specific action is to occur within that set of adverse conditions.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Implementation Guide for Minimum Required Error Codes in Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure

With the growing adoption of Electric Vehicles (EVs), there is an increasing need for a reliable EV charging infrastructure. To help meet this need, the report “Recommendations for Minimum Required Error Codes for Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure,” recommends a set of minimum required error codes (MRECs) and their functional and responsibility classification. Charger manufacturers, charging station operators, EV manufacturers, and other stakeholders in the North American market are encouraged to uniformly adopt the MRECs to enhance EV charging error reporting, interpretation, and diagnostics. This document serves as a guide to enable uniform implementation of the MRECs using the Open Charge Point Protocol (OCPP).

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Characterizing the Impact of Heliostat Size, Focus Method, and Optical Error on Concentrating Solar Tower Systems

Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) tower systems use heliostat fields to direct solar energy to a central receiver. The efficiency of the heliostat field is crucial for achieving thermal generation targets and is also the largest cost component, making up 30-40% of total project costs. Developers face a tradeoff: reducing heliostat costs may decrease optical performance and increase land use, while improving performance could raise manufacturing costs (through higher precision). The optimal design depends on land, labor, and manufacturing costs. Additionally, inherent performance limitations exist - optical errors result in larger solar images as heliostats move farther from the receiver, increasing spillage and attenuation losses. Ultimately, there exists a point where receiver design power can no longer be achieved at design conditions for a given solar field area. This point depends on key heliostat field design parameters including field layout, heliostats size, focus method, and heliostat optical error. In this work, we explore and characterize the performance trade-offs between heliostat size, focus method, and optical error using Monte Carlo ray-tracing simulations using NREL's high performance computing resources. The goal of this fundamental investigation is to understand practical heliostat design performance impacts that can be used to produce more cost-effective heliostat fields while still achieving plant thermal generation targets.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of the Four-Dimensional Ensemble-Variational Hybrid Data Assimilation with Self-Consistent Regional Background Error Covariance for Improved Hurricane Intensity Forecasts

The feasibility of a hurricane initialization framework based on the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI)-based four-dimensional ensemble-variational (GSI-4DEnVar) hybrid data assimilation system for the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting model (HWRF) model is evaluated in this study. The system considers the temporal evolution of error covariances via the use of four-dimensional ensemble perturbations that are provided by high-resolution, self-consistent HWRF ensemble forecasts. It is different from the configuration of the GSI-based three-dimensional ensemble-variational (GSI-3DEnVar) hybrid data assimilation system, similar to that used in the operational HWRF, which employs background error covariances provided by coarser-resolution global ensembles from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) ensemble Kalman filtering data assimilation system. In addition, our proposed initialization framework discards the empirical intensity correction in the vortex initialization package that is employed by the GSI-3DEnVar initialization framework in operational HWRF. Data assimilation and numerical simulation experiments for Hurricanes Joaquin (2015), Patricia (2015), and Matthew (2016) are conducted during their intensity changes. The impacts of two initialization frameworks on the HWRF analyses and forecasts are compared. It is found that GSI-4DEnVar leads to a reduction in track, minimum sea level pressure (MSLP), and maximum surface wind (MSW) forecast errors in all of the HWRF simulations, compared with the GSI-3DEnVar initialization framework. With assimilating high-resolution observations within the hurricane inner-core region, GSI-4DEnVar can produce the initial hurricane intensity reasonably well without the empirical vortex intensity correction. Further diagnoses with Hurricane Joaquin indicate that GSI-4DEnVar can significantly alleviate the imbalances in the initial conditions and enhance the performance of the data assimilation and subsequent hurricane intensity and precipitation forecasts

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Vetting galactic Leavitt law calibrators using radial velocities: On the variability, binarity, and possible parallax error of 19 long-period cepheids

We investigate the radial velocity (RV) variability and spectroscopic binarity of 19 Galactic long-period (P{sub puls} ≳ 10 days) classical Cepheid variable stars whose trigonometric parallaxes are being measured using the Hubble Space Telescope and Gaia. Our primary objective is to constrain possible parallax error due to undetected orbital motion. Using over 1600 high-precision RVs measured between 2011 and 2016, we find no indication of orbital motion on ≲5 year timescales for 18 Cepheids and determine upper limits on allowed configurations for a range of input orbital periods. The results constrain the unsigned parallax error due to orbital motion to <2% for 16 stars, and <4% for 18. We improve the orbital solution of the known binary YZ Carinae and show that the astrometric model must take into account orbital motion to avoid significant error (∼±100 μarcsec). We further investigate long-timescale (P{sub orb} > 10 years) variations in pulsation-averaged velocity v {sub γ} via a template fitting approach using both new and literature RVs. We discover the spectroscopic binarity of XZ Car and CD Cyg, find first tentative evidence for AQ Car, and reveal KN Cen’s orbital signature. Further (mostly tentative) evidence of time-variable v {sub γ} is found for SS CMa, VY Car, SZ Cyg, and X Pup. We briefly discuss considerations regarding a vetting process of Galactic Leavitt law calibrators and show that light contributions by companions are insignificant for most distance scale applications.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

JWST Noise Floor. II. Systematic Error Sources in JWST NIRCam Time Series

The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) holds great promise for characterizing atmospheres of transiting exoplanets, potentially providing insights into Earth-sized planets within the habitable zones of M-dwarf host stars if photon-limited performance can be achieved. Here, we discuss the systematic error sources that are expected to be present in grism time-series observations with the NIRCam instrument. We find that pointing jitter and high-gain antenna moves in addition to the detectors’ subpixel crosshatch patterns will produce relatively small variations (less than 6 parts per million, ppm). The time-dependent aperture losses due to thermal instabilities in the optics can also be kept to below 2 ppm. To achieve these low noise values, it is important to employ a sufficiently large (more than 11) extraction aperture. Persistence due to charge-trapping will have a minor (less than 3 ppm) effect on the time series 20 minutes into an exposure and is expected to play a much smaller role than it does for the Hubble Space Telescope WFC3 detectors. We expect detector temperature fluctuations to contribute less than 3 ppm. In total, our estimated noise floor from known systematic error sources is only 9 ppm per visit. We urge caution, however, because unknown systematic error sources could be present in flight and will only be measurable on astrophysical sources such as quiescent stars. We find that reciprocity failure may introduce a perennial instrument offset at the 40 ppm level, so corrections may be needed when a multi-instrument multi-observatory spectrum is stitched together over wide wavelength ranges.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
NASA NTRS2002

Error margin for antenna gain measurements

The specification of measured antenna gain is incomplete without knowing the error of the measurement. Also, unless gain is measured many times for a single antenna or over many identical antennas, the uncertainty or error in a single measurement is only an estimate. In this paper, we will examine in detail a typical error budget for common antenna gain measurements. We will also compute the gain uncertainty for a specific UHF horn test that was recently performed on the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) antenna range. The paper concludes with comments on these results and how they compare with the 'unofficial' JPL range standard of +/- ?.

error antennas gain↗
NASA NTRS2004

Performance of multi level error correction in binary holographic memory

At the Optical Computing Lab in the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) a binary holographic data storage system was designed and tested with methods of recording and retrieving the binary information. Levels of error correction were introduced to the system including pixel averaging, thresholding, and parity checks. Errors were artificially introduced into the binary holographic data storage system and were monitored as a function of the defect area fraction, which showed a strong influence on data integrity. Average area fractions exceeding one quarter of the bit area caused unrecoverable errors. Efficient use of the available data density was discussed. .

data storage↗
NASA NTRS2013

Estimating Root Mean Square Errors in Remotely Sensed Soil Moisture over Continental Scale Domains

Root Mean Square Errors (RMSE) in the soil moisture anomaly time series obtained from the Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) and the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E; using the Land Parameter Retrieval Model) are estimated over a continental scale domain centered on North America, using two methods: triple colocation (RMSETC ) and error propagation through the soil moisture retrieval models (RMSEEP ). In the absence of an established consensus for the climatology of soil moisture over large domains, presenting a RMSE in soil moisture units requires that it be specified relative to a selected reference data set. To avoid the complications that arise from the use of a reference, the RMSE is presented as a fraction of the time series standard deviation (fRMSE). For both sensors, the fRMSETC and fRMSEEP show similar spatial patterns of relatively highlow errors, and the mean fRMSE for each land cover class is consistent with expectations. Triple colocation is also shown to be surprisingly robust to representativity differences between the soil moisture data sets used, and it is believed to accurately estimate the fRMSE in the remotely sensed soil moisture anomaly time series. Comparing the ASCAT and AMSR-E fRMSETC shows that both data sets have very similar accuracy across a range of land cover classes, although the AMSR-E accuracy is more directly related to vegetation cover. In general, both data sets have good skill up to moderate vegetation conditions.

Remotely sensed soil moisture validation↗
NASA NTRS2014

Use of an OSSE to Evaluate Background Error Covariances Estimated by the 'NMC Method'

The NMC method has proven utility for prescribing approximate background-error covariances required by variational data assimilation systems. Here, untunedNMCmethod estimates are compared with explicitly determined error covariances produced within an OSSE context by exploiting availability of the true simulated states. Such a comparison provides insights into what kind of rescaling is required to render the NMC method estimates usable. It is shown that rescaling of variances and directional correlation lengths depends greatly on both pressure and latitude. In particular, some scaling coefficients appropriate in the Tropics are the reciprocal of those in the Extratropics. Also, the degree of dynamic balance is grossly overestimated by the NMC method. These results agree with previous examinations of the NMC method which used ensembles as an alternative for estimating background-error statistics.

Data Assimilation↗
NASA NTRS2013

Managing the Risk of Command File Errors

Command File Error (CFE), as defined by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory's (JPL) Mission Operations Assurance (MOA) is, regardless of the consequence on the spacecraft, either: an error in a command file sent to the spacecraft, an error in the process for developing and delivering a command file to the spacecraft, or the omission of a command file that should have been sent to the spacecraft. The risk consequence of a CFE can be mission ending and thus a concern to space exploration projects during their mission operations. A CFE during space mission operations is often the symptom of some kind of imbalance or inadequacy within the system that comprises the hardware & software used for command generation and the human experts involved in this endeavour. As we move into an era of enhanced collaboration with other NASA centers and commercial partners, these systems become more and more complex and hence it is all the more important to formally model and analyze CFEs in order to manage the risk of CFEs. Here we will provide a summary of the ongoing efforts at JPL in this area and also explain some more recent developments in the area of developing quantitative models for the purpose of managing CFE's.

Bayesian Belief Networks↗
NASA NTRS2016

Estimating Model Prediction Error: Should You Treat Predictions as Fixed or Random?

Crop models are important tools for impact assessment of climate change, as well as for exploring management options under current climate. It is essential to evaluate the uncertainty associated with predictions of these models. We compare two criteria of prediction error; MSEP fixed, which evaluates mean squared error of prediction for a model with fixed structure, parameters and inputs, and MSEP uncertain( X), which evaluates mean squared error averaged over the distributions of model structure, inputs and parameters. Comparison of model outputs with data can be used to estimate the former. The latter has a squared bias term, which can be estimated using hindcasts, and a model variance term, which can be estimated from a simulation experiment. The separate contributions to MSEP uncertain (X) can be estimated using a random effects ANOVA. It is argued that MSEP uncertain (X) is the more informative uncertainty criterion, because it is specific to each prediction situation.

model structure uncertainty↗
NASA NTRS2022

Modeling the Errors of a Time Series Algorithm for Retrieving Soil Moisture in the NISAR Mission

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) - Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) Synthetic Aperture Radar (NISAR) mission plan to launch a SAR operating at L- and S-band with a 12-day repeat frequency. A global soil moisture product at 200 m spatial resolution derived from 200 m NISAR radar measurements is currently under development. Although several retrieval algorithms are being investigated, this paper focuses on a “time series ratio” retrieval approach. In order to understand and assess the performance of this algorithm, an error model has been developed and is reported in this paper. The model is applied to examine errors as a function of the instrument characteristics and for a given location. Initial progress in including vegetation effects and in predicting errors as a function of spatial location is also described.

NISAR↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Onboard Navigation Error Analysis for Aerocapture at Uranus

Capturing into an orbit around Uranus using aerocapture allows one to design a mission with faster interplanetary trajectories and less propellant requirements. Such an aerocapture mission would rely on the onboard Guidance, Navigation, and Control (GNC) subsystems to successfully capture into an orbit around Uranus. Uncertainty in the state information and the noise in the sensor measurements induce navigation errors in the guidance and control subsystems, which can affect the overall performance of the aerocapture mission at Uranus. Understanding the effect of these navigation errors on mission performance is essential. To this end, this work considers different sensors with varying quality to understand their impact on the overall mission performance. In addition, this paper studies the impact of the uncertainty in the initial states used to initialize the onboard navigation filter and understands their effect on mission performance. This paper also shows the onboard navigation errors obtained from the Linear Covariance (LinCov) analysis and uses them for verification and validation (V\&V) of the results from Program to Optimize and Simulate Trajectories-II (POST2).

Aerocapture↗
DOE OSTI2012

Wind Power Forecasting Error Frequency Analyses for Operational Power System Studies: Preprint

The examination of wind power forecasting errors is crucial for optimal unit commitment and economic dispatch of power systems with significant wind power penetrations. This scheduling process includes both renewable and nonrenewable generators, and the incorporation of wind power forecasts will become increasingly important as wind fleets constitute a larger portion of generation portfolios. This research considers the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study database of wind power forecasts and numerical actualizations. This database comprises more than 30,000 locations spread over the western United States, with a total wind power capacity of 960 GW. Error analyses for individual sites and for specific balancing areas are performed using the database, quantifying the fit to theoretical distributions through goodness-of-fit metrics. Insights into wind-power forecasting error distributions are established for various levels of temporal and spatial resolution, contrasts made among the frequency distribution alternatives, and recommendations put forth for harnessing the results. Empirical data are used to produce more realistic site-level forecasts than previously employed, such that higher resolution operational studies are possible. This research feeds into a larger work of renewable integration through the links wind power forecasting has with various operational issues, such as stochastic unit commitment and flexible reserve level determination.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2011

Phase Errors and the Capture Effect

This slide-show presents analysis of spectrograms and the phase error of filtered noise in a signal. When the filtered noise is smaller than the signal amplitude, the phase error can never exceed 90{deg}, so the average phase error over many cycles is zero: this is called the capture effect because the largest signal captures the phase and frequency determination.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2012

Numerical study of error propagation in Monte Carlo depletion simulations

Improving computer technology and the desire to more accurately model the heterogeneity of the nuclear reactor environment have made the use of Monte Carlo depletion codes more attractive in recent years, and feasible (if not practical) even for 3-D depletion simulation. However, in this case statistical uncertainty is combined with error propagating through the calculation from previous steps. In an effort to understand this error propagation, a numerical study was undertaken to model and track individual fuel pins in four 17 x 17 PWR fuel assemblies. By changing the code's initial random number seed, the data produced by a series of 19 replica runs was used to investigate the true and apparent variance in k{sub eff}, pin powers, and number densities of several isotopes. While this study does not intend to develop a predictive model for error propagation, it is hoped that its results can help to identify some common regularities in the behavior of uncertainty in several key parameters. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗