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At least 1,279 records · Page 71

Comparison of Echo 7 field line length measurements to magnetospheric model predictions

The Echo 7 sounding rocket experiment injected electron beams on central tail field lines near L = 6.5. Numerous injections returned to the payload as 'conjugate echoes' after mirroring in the southern hemisphere. Field line lengths calculated from measured conjugate echo bounce times and energies are compared to predictions made by integrating electron trajectories through various magnetospheric models. Although Kp at launch was 3-, quiet time magnetic models best fit the echo measurements. Geosynchronous satellite magnetometer measurements near the Echo 7 field lines during the flight were best modeled by the Olson-Pfitzer Dynamic Model and the Tsyganenko-Usmanov model for Kp = 3. The discrepancy between the models that best fit the Echo 7 data and those that fit the satellite data was most likely due to uncertainties in the small-scale configuration of the magnetospheric models. The field line length measured by the conjugate echoes showed some temporal variation in the magnetic field, also indicated by the satellite magnetometers. This demonstrates the utility an Echo-style experiment could have in substorm studies.

Nemzek, R. J.↗

ASSESSMENT OF MODELS OF GALACTIC THERMAL DUST EMISSION USING COBE /FIRAS AND COBE /DIRBE OBSERVATIONS

Accurate modeling of the spectrum of thermal dust emission at millimeter wavelengths is important for improving the accuracy of foreground subtraction for cosmic microwave background (CMB) measurements, for improving the accuracy with which the contributions of different foreground emission components can be determined, and for improving our understanding of dust composition and dust physics. We fit four models of dust emission to high Galactic latitude COBE /FIRAS and COBE /DIRBE observations from 3 mm to 100 μ m and compare the quality of the fits. We consider the two-level systems (TLS) model because it provides a physically motivated explanation for the observed long wavelength flattening of the dust spectrum and the anti-correlation between emissivity index and dust temperature. We consider the model of Finkbeiner et al. because it has been widely used for CMB studies, and the generalized version of this model that was recently applied to Planck data by Meisner and Finkbeiner. For comparison we have also fit a phenomenological model consisting of the sum of two graybody components. We find that the two-graybody model gives the best fit and the FDS model gives a significantly poorer fit than the other models. The Meisner and Finkbeiner model and the TLS model remain viable for use in Galactic foreground subtraction, but the FIRAS data do not have a sufficient signal-to-noise ratio to provide a strong test of the predicted spectrum at millimeter wavelengths.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Local and Global Function Model of the Liver

Purpose: To develop a local and global function model in the liver based on regional and organ function measurements to support individualized adaptive radiation therapy (RT). Methods and Materials: A local and global model for liver function was developed to include both functional volume and the effect of functional variation of subunits. Adopting the assumption of parallel architecture in the liver, the global function was composed of a sum of local function probabilities of subunits, varying between 0 and 1. The model was fit to 59 datasets of liver regional and organ function measures from 23 patients obtained before, during, and 1 month after RT. The local function probabilities of subunits were modeled by a sigmoid function in relating to MRI-derived portal venous perfusion values. The global function was fitted to a logarithm of an indocyanine green retention rate at 15 minutes (an overall liver function measure). Cross-validation was performed by leave-m-out tests. The model was further evaluated by fitting to the data divided according to whether the patients had hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) or not. Results: The liver function model showed that (1) a perfusion value of 68.6 mL/(100 g · min) yielded a local function probability of 0.5; (2) the probability reached 0.9 at a perfusion value of 98 mL/(100 g · min); and (3) at a probability of 0.03 [corresponding perfusion of 38 mL/(100 g · min)] or lower, the contribution to global function was lost. Cross-validations showed that the model parameters were stable. The model fitted to the data from the patients with HCC indicated that the same amount of portal venous perfusion was translated into less local function probability than in the patients with non-HCC tumors. Conclusions: The developed liver function model could provide a means to better assess individual and regional dose-responses of hepatic functions, and provide guidance for individualized treatment planning of RT.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Dynamic modeling of fluid transmission lines of the DSN 70-meter antennas by using a lumped parameter model

Fluid transmission lines and fittings were found to significantly affect the dynamic and steady state operation of the engineering system in which they are incorporated. Therefore, a better understanding of the operation of a system can be obtained by including the performance of the transmission lines and fittings within the system model. The most accurate model of a transmission line or fitting is obtained by using a distributed parameter model. However, a distributed parameter model tends to be very complex. This complexity can be avoided without significant loss of model accuracy by using a lumped parameter model when the length of the fluid path through the transmission line or fitting is short. This article develops a lumped parameter model for short fluid transmission lines and fittings, describes the conditions under which the model is valid, and presents the model parameters associated with the servo hydraulic system of the Deep Space Network (DSN) 70-meter antennas.

Bartos, R. D.↗

An Analysis of Dust Halo and Extinction Toward X Persei

Interstellar dust grain models are not sufficiently constrained by UV extinction curves to be able to distinguish between them. By testing grain models in the X-ray regime and applying elemental abundance constraints, we show to what extent the models can reproduce the observables in these regimes, and if they are capable of doing so while respecting the abundance limits. We tested the MRN and WD grain models. The fits to the X-ray data do not allow us to distinguish between MRN and WD; both models provide reasonable fits, but cannot do so while respecting the elemental abundance constraints. The situation in the UV regime is similar. Both MRN and WD underestimate the hydrogen column density NH. The model of ZDA provides promising results, as it finds NH much closer to the UV-measured value; further testing of this model is called for.

Valencic, Lynne A.↗

Assessment of Models of Galactic Thermal Dust Emission Using COBE/FIRAS and COBE/DIRBE Observations

Accurate modeling of the spectrum of thermal dust emission at millimeter wavelengths is important for improving the accuracy of foreground subtraction for cosmic microwave background (CMB) measurements, for improving the accuracy with which the contributions of different foreground emission components can be determined, and for improving our understanding of dust composition and dust physics. We fit four models of dust emission to high Galactic latitude COBE/FIRAS and COBE/DIRBE observations from 3 mm to 100m and compare the quality of the fits. We consider the two-level systems (TLS) model because it provides a physically motivated explanation for the observed long wavelength flattening of the dust spectrum and the anti-correlation between emissivity index and dust temperature. We consider the model of Finkbeiner et al. because it has been widely used for CMB studies, and the generalized version of this model that was recently applied to Planck data by Meisner and Finkbeiner. For comparison we have also fit a phenomenological model consisting of the sum of two-graybody components. We find that the two-graybody model gives the best fit and the FDS model gives a significantly poorer fit than the othermodels. The Meisner and Finkbeiner model and the TLS model remain viable for use in Galactic foreground subtraction, but the FIRAS data do not have a sufficient signal-to-noise ratio to provide a strong test of the predicted spectrum at millimeter wavelengths.

Odegard, N.↗

Statistical Emulation of Climate Model Projections Based on Precomputed GCM Runs*

The authors describe a new approach for emulating the output of a fully coupled climate model under arbitrary forcing scenarios that is based on a small set of precomputed runs from the model. Temperature and precipitation are expressed as simple functions of the past trajectory of atmospheric CO 2 concentrations, and a statistical model is fit using a limited set of training runs. The approach is demonstrated to be a useful and computationally efficient alternative to pattern scaling and captures the nonlinear evolution of spatial patterns of climate anomalies inherent in transient climates. The approach does as well as pattern scaling in all circumstances and substantially better in many; it is not computationally demanding; and, once the statistical model is fit, it produces emulated climate output effectively instantaneously. In conclusion, it may therefore find wide application in climate impacts assessments and other policy analyses requiring rapid climate projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Lens models and magnification maps of the six Hubble Frontier Fields clusters

We present strong-lensing models as well as mass and magnification maps for the cores of the six Hubble Space Telescope (HST) Frontier Fields galaxy clusters. Our parametric lens models are constrained by the locations and redshifts of multiple image systems of lensed background galaxies. We use a combination of photometric redshifts and spectroscopic redshifts of the lensed background sources obtained by us (for A2744 and AS1063), collected from the literature, or kindly provided by the lensing community. Using our results, we (1) compare the derived mass distribution of each cluster to its light distribution, (2) quantify the cumulative magnification power of the HST Frontier Fields clusters, (3) describe how our models can be used to estimate the magnification and image multiplicity of lensed background sources at all redshifts and at any position within the cluster cores, and (4) discuss systematic effects and caveats resulting from our modeling methods. We specifically investigate the effect of the use of spectroscopic and photometric redshift constraints on the uncertainties of the resulting models. We find that the photometric redshift estimates of lensed galaxies are generally in excellent agreement with spectroscopic redshifts, where available. However, the flexibility associated with relaxed redshift priors may cause the complexity of large-scale structure that is needed to account for the lensing signal to be underestimated. Our findings thus underline the importance of spectroscopic arc redshifts, or tight photometric redshift constraints, for high precision lens models. All products from our best-fit lens models (magnification, convergence, shear, deflection field) and model simulations for estimating errors are made available via the Mikulski Archive for Space Telescopes.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Modeling resistance to the broadly neutralizing antibody PGT121 in people living with HIV-1

PGT121 is a broadly neutralizing antibody in clinical development for the treatment and prevention of HIV-1 infection via passive administration. PGT121 targets the HIV-1 V3-glycan and demonstrated potent antiviral activity in a phase I clinical trial. Resistance to PGT121 monotherapy rapidly occurred in the majority of participants in this trial with the sampled rebound viruses being entirely resistant to PGT121 mediated neutralization. However, two individuals experienced long-term ART-free viral suppression following antibody infusion and retained sensitivity to PGT121 upon viral rebound. Here, we develop mathematical models of the HIV-1 dynamics during this phase I clinical trial. We utilize these models to understand the dynamics leading to PGT121 resistance and to identify the mechanisms driving the observed long-term viral control. Our modeling highlights the importance of the relative fitness difference between PGT121 sensitive and resistant subpopulations prior to treatment. Specifically, by fitting our models to data, we identify the treatment-induced competitive advantage of previously existing or newly generated resistant population as a primary driver of resistance. Finally, our modeling emphasizes the high neutralization ability of PGT121 in both participants who exhibited long-term viral control.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Forbidden coronal iron-like emission in the Puppis A shock front - The effect of inhomogeneities

CCD images of the shock front at the eastern rim of Pup A, obtained in the forbidden lines of Fe X (6374 A) and Fe XIV (5303 A), are reported and compared to Einstein high-resolution-image soft X-ray data. The observed part of the remnant is complex, containing density irregularities. Optical and X-ray data are consistent in showing a nearly flat gradient of ionization temperature behind the shock. To determine conditions in the shock, scans of surface brightness across it in the optical lines were compared to surface brightnesses predicted by idealized Sedov models. It was not possible to match both the red and green line scans by a simple, single-component model, and the failure is ascribed to the presence of the density inhomogeneities. This result has important implications for the determination of SNR shock-front models by fitting X-ray data with Sedov models.

Teske, Richard G.↗

A Stochastic Model of Space-Time Variability of Mesoscale Rainfall: Statistics of Spatial Averages

A characteristic feature of rainfall statistics is that they depend on the space and time scales over which rain data are averaged. A previously developed spectral model of rain statistics that is designed to capture this property, predicts power law scaling behavior for the second moment statistics of area-averaged rain rate on the averaging length scale L as L right arrow 0. In the present work a more efficient method of estimating the model parameters is presented, and used to fit the model to the statistics of area-averaged rain rate derived from gridded radar precipitation data from TOGA COARE. Statistical properties of the data and the model predictions are compared over a wide range of averaging scales. An extension of the spectral model scaling relations to describe the dependence of the average fraction of grid boxes within an area containing nonzero rain (the "rainy area fraction") on the grid scale L is also explored.

Kundu, Prasun K.↗

Global Variability in Sonic Boom Exposure due to Macroscopic Effects

Supersonic flight over land has been prohibited since 1973 due to the loudness of sonic booms. NASA is building the X-59 aircraft as part of its Quesst mission to demonstrate low-loudness shaped sonic booms, or “sonic thumps.” The Quesst mission will gather human perception data via a series of community noise surveys across the USA. The noise dose and perceptual response data will be provided to the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) and the Federal Aviation Administration for use in determining potential future supersonic aircraft noise certification standards, effectively changing the prohibition from a speed limit to a noise limit. These noise regulations must be globally effective, as long travel distances see the largest benefit to supersonic flight. The state of the atmosphere through which a sonic boom travels affects the size of the region exposed to sound, the “carpet width” (CW), as well as the loudness. The focus of this dissertation is to understand and quantify the expected loudness and CW of sonic booms due to the macroscopic atmospheric effects around the world. A pair of large-scale propagation simulation studies were conducted using the NASA PCBoom code to compare predicted sonic boom loudness and CW statistics first across the USA and then across the world. For the USA study, near-field data of the X-59 in steady cruise was propagated at 4 cardinal headings at 138 locations through 5 years of Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) atmospheric profiles. Results of a bootstrap forest predictor screening model indicated the importance of climate zone, latitude, ground elevation, season, and heading. It also noted the unimportance of time of day for predicting loudness and CW. The data is visualized in aggregate, and then broken out geographically, by season and heading, and by climate zone. Multiple linear regression models were fit to the data from the 138 locations so that estimates of the loudness and CW can be produced anywhere in the US. The results can aid in planning when and where to fly the X-59. For the global study, near-field data from three aircraft, the X-59 in a quiet and loud configuration, B-58, and Concorde, were propagated at four cardinal headings through data from three atmospheric models, the CFSv2, the Global Forecast System (GFS), and the ECMWF Reanalysis Version 5 (ERA5), at 100 global locations over 1 year. Results of a bootstrap forest predictor screening model indicated the importance of climate zone, ground elevation, season, and heading. Similar to the US study, the model indicated time of day was not an important predictor. The model also indicated that choice of weather model was not important, so the atmospheric model data are effectively interchangeable. The ERA5 model was chosen for use in an extension of the study to include 18 additional locations to ensure sampling of every climate zone. Loudness and CW results are shown in aggregate, and split geographically and by heading, season, and climate. Multiple linear regression models were fit to the data from the 118 locations so that estimates of loudness and CW can be produced around the world. N-waves and shaped booms did not have the same global variability. Koppen-Geiger climate zones were used as the climate zone definition for the global study. These are available as present-day and future climate projections. Making use of the multiple linear regression models, the future climate zones were input to estimate the effect of the changing climate on sonic boom loudness and CW. Results indicate that a changing climate would have little impact on the effectiveness of noise regulations.

X-59↗

Curve fitting methods for solar radiation data modeling

This paper studies the use of several type of curve fitting method to smooth the global solar radiation data. After the data have been fitted by using curve fitting method, the mathematical model of global solar radiation will be developed. The error measurement was calculated by using goodness-fit statistics such as root mean square error (RMSE) and the value of R{sup 2}. The best fitting methods will be used as a starting point for the construction of mathematical modeling of solar radiation received in Universiti Teknologi PETRONAS (UTP) Malaysia. Numerical results indicated that Gaussian fitting and sine fitting (both with two terms) gives better results as compare with the other fitting methods.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

New method for fitting coefficients in standard model effective theory

We present an alternative method for carrying out a principal-component analysis of Wilson coefficients in standard model effective field theory (SMEFT). The method is based on singular-value decomposition (SVD). The SVD method provides information about the sensitivity of experimental observables to physics beyond the standard model that is not accessible in the Fisher-information method. In principle, the SVD method can also have computational advantages over diagonalization of the Fisher information matrix. We demonstrate the SVD method by applying it to the dimension-6 coefficients for the process of top-quark decay to a b quark and a W boson and use this example to illustrate some pitfalls in widely used fitting procedures. We also outline an iterative procedure for applying the SVD method to dimension-8 SMEFT coefficients.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Combined selection of the dynamic model and modeling error in nonlinear aeroelastic systems using Bayesian Inference

Here, we report a Bayesian framework for concurrent selection of physics-based models and (modeling) error models. We investigate the use of colored noise to capture the mismatch between the predictions of calibrated models and observational data that cannot be explained by measurement error alone within the context of Bayesian estimation for stochastic ordinary differential equations. Proposed models are characterized by the average data-fit, a measure of how well a model fits the measurements, and the model complexity measured using the Kullback–Leibler divergence. The use of a more complex error models increases the average data-fit but also increases the complexity of the combined model, possibly over-fitting the data. Bayesian model selection is used to find the optimal physical model as well as the optimal error model. The optimal model is defined using the evidence, where the average data-fit is balanced by the complexity of the model. The effect of colored noise process is illustrated using a nonlinear aeroelastic oscillator representing a rigid NACA0012 airfoil undergoing limit cycle oscillations due to complex fluid–structure interactions. Several quasi-steady and unsteady aerodynamic models are proposed with colored noise or white noise for the model error. The use of colored noise improves the predictive capabilities of simpler models.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Pharmacokinetic Modeling of Intranasal Scopolamine in Plasma Saliva and Urine

An intranasal gel formulation of scopolamine (INSCOP) was developed for the treatment of Space Motion Sickness. The bioavailability and pharmacokinetics (PK) were evaluated under the Food and Drug Administration guidelines for clinical trials for an Investigative New Drug (IND). The aim of this project was to develop a PK model that can predict the relationship between plasma, saliva and urinary scopolamine concentrations using data collected from the IND clinical trial with INSCOP. METHODS: Twelve healthy human subjects were administered three dose levels (0.1, 0.2 and 0.4 mg) of INSCOP. Serial blood, saliva and urine samples were collected between 5 min to 24 h after dosing and scopolamine concentrations measured by using a validated LC-MS-MS assay. Pharmacokinetic Compartmental models, using actual dosing and sampling times, were built using Phoenix (version 1.2). Model discrimination was performed, by minimizing the Akaike Information Criteria (AIC), maximizing the coefficient of determination (r²) and by comparison of the quality of fit plots. RESULTS: The best structural model to describe scopolamine disposition after INSCOP administration (minimal AIC =907.2) consisted of one compartment for plasma, saliva and urine respectively that were inter-connected with different rate constants. The estimated values of PK parameters were compiled in Table 1. The model fitting exercises revealed a nonlinear PK for scopolamine between plasma and saliva compartments for K21, Vmax and Km. CONCLUSION: PK model for INSCOP was developed and for the first time it satisfactorily predicted the PK of scopolamine in plasma, saliva and urine after INSCOP administration. Using non-linear PK yielded the best structural model to describe scopolamine disposition between plasma and saliva compartments, and inclusion of non-linear PK resulted in a significant improved model fitting. The model can be utilized to predict scopolamine plasma concentration using saliva and/or urine data that allows non-invasive assessment of pharmacotherapeutics of scopolamine in space and other remote environments without requiring blood sampling.

Wu, L.↗

Spectral variations in the low-mass X-ray binary 4U 0614+09

We report the X-ray spectra of a binary 4U 0614+09 observed with EXOSAT on five different occasions in 1984 and 1986. In four observations in 1984, the source intensity was 'low' compared to its intensity in the 1986 observation. The source was steady on timescales of 10 to 1000 s in each of the 1984 observations but highly variable during the 1986 variations. The best-fit spectral models for the continuum are a blackbody spectrum plus an emission from a Comptonized region. In addition, a component due to reflection from a cold disk around the source was needed as an absorbiton edge due to cold or ionized iron was seen near 7 keV with good significance in most of the spectra, particularly in the 'low' state. The relation of the hardness ratios with intensity follow the behavior seen in the 'Atoll' sources. We have studied the behavior of the hardness ratios with the variations in the parameters of the best-fit spectral models. Most of the variability is associated with the blackbody component thought to arise from the boundary layer on the surface of the neutron star. During the 'high' state in 1986, the blackbody temperature is higher, its size smaller, and its contribution significantly greater than in the 'low' state. The other notable difference between the two states is the lower opacity in the Comptonized region, and a significantly higher absorption in the 'high' state. A weak line emission (equivalent width = 10 to 40 eV) is detected during the 'high' state. The line energy lies between 6 and 7 keV wh ich implies its origin from ionized iron.

Singh, K. P.↗

Maximum Likelihood Analysis of Low Energy CDMS II Germanium Data

We report on the results of a search for a Weakly Interacting Massive Particle (WIMP) signal in low-energy data of the Cryogenic Dark Matter Search experiment using a maximum likelihood analysis. A background model is constructed using GEANT4 to simulate the surface-event background from Pb210decay-chain events, while using independent calibration data to model the gamma background. Fitting this background model to the data results in no statistically significant WIMP component. In addition, we also perform fits using an analytic ad hoc background model proposed by Collar and Fields, who claimed to find a large excess of signal-like events in our data. Finally, we confirm the strong preference for a signal hypothesis in their analysis under these assumptions, but excesses are observed in both single- and multiple-scatter events, which implies the signal is not caused by WIMPs, but rather reflects the inadequacy of their background model.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗