Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Probability Distribution Function”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,279 records · Page 71
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2017

Turbulent Mixing Simulation via a Quantum Algorithm

Probability density function (PDF) methods have been very useful in describing many physical aspects of turbulent mixing. In applications of these methods, modeled PDF transport equations are commonly simulated via classical Monte Carlo techniques, which provide estimates of moments of the PDF at arbitrary accuracy. In this paper, recently developed techniques in quantum computing and quantum enhanced measurements (quantum metrology) are used to construct a quantum algorithm that accelerates the computation of such estimates. This quantum algorithm provides a quadratic speedup over classical Monte Carlo methods in terms of the number of repetitions needed to achieve the desired precision. This paper illustrates the power of this algorithm by considering a binary scalar mixing process modeled by means of the coalescence/dispersion (C/D) closure. The equation is first simulated using classical Monte Carlo methods, where error estimates for the computation of central moments are provided. Then the quantum algorithm for this problem is simulated by sampling from the same probability distribution as that of the output of a quantum computer, and it is shown that significantly fewer resources are required to achieve the same precision. Finally, the results demonstrate potential applications of future quantum computers for simulation of turbulent mixing, and large classes of related problems.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2012

Design and Analysis of a Region-Wide Remotely Controllable Electrical Lock-Out System

Electric utilities have a main responsibility to protect the lives and safety of their workers when they are working on low-, medium-, and high-voltage power lines and distribution circuits. With the anticipated widespread deployment of smart grids, a secure and highly reliable means of maintaining isolation of customer-owned distributed generation (DG) from the affected distribution circuits during maintenance is necessary to provide a fully de-energized work area, ensure utility personnel safety, and prevent hazards that can lead to accidents such as accidental electrocution from unanticipated power sources. Some circuits are serviced while energized (live line work) while others are de-energized for maintenance. For servicing de-energized circuits and equipment, lock-out tag-out (LOTO) programs provide a verifiable procedure for ensuring that circuit breakers are locked in the off state and tagged to indicate that status to operational personnel so that the lines will be checked for voltage to verify they are de-energized. The de-energized area is isolated from any energized sources, which traditionally are the substations. This procedure works well when all power sources and their interconnections are known armed with this knowledge, utility personnel can determine the appropriate circuits to de-energize for isolating the target line or equipment. However, with customer-owned DG tied into the grid, the risk of inadvertently reenergizing a circuit increases because circuit connections may not be adequately documented and are not under the direct control of the local utility. Thus, the active device may not be properly de-energized or isolated from the work area. Further, a remote means of de-energizing and locking out energized devices provides an opportunity for greatly reduced safety risk to utility personnel compared to manual operations. In this paper, we present a remotely controllable LOTO system that allows individual workers to determine the configuration and status of electrical system circuits and permit them to lock out customer-owned DG devices for safety purposes using a highly secure and ultra-reliable radio signal. The system consists of: (1) individual personal lockout devices, (2) lockout communications and logic module at circuit breakers, which are located at all DG devices, and (3) a database and configuration control process located at the utility operations center. The lockout system is a close permissive, i.e., loss of control power or communications will cause the circuit breaker to open. Once the DG device is tripped open, a visual means will provide confirmation of a loss of voltage and current that verifies the disconnected status of the DG. Further the utility personnel will be able to place their own lock electronically on the system to ensure a lockout functionally. The proposed LOTO system provides enhanced worker safety and protection against unintended energized lines when DG is present. The main approaches and challenges encountered through designing the proposed region-wide LOTO system are discussed in this paper. These approaches include: (1) evaluating the reliability of the proposed approach under N-modular redundancy with voter/spares configurations and (2) conducting a system level risk assessment study using the failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) technique to identify and rank failure modes by probability of occurrence, probability of detection, and severity of consequences. This ranking allows a cost benefits analysis to be conducted such that dollars and efforts will be applied to the failures that provide greatest incremental gains in system capability (resilience, survivability, security, reliability, availability, etc.) per dollar spent whether capital, operations, or investment. Several simulation scenarios and their results are presented to demonstrate the viability of these approaches.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2016

Handshake electron transfer from hydrogen Rydberg atoms incident at a series of metallic thin films

Thin metallic films have a 1D quantum well along the surface normal direction, which yields particle-in-a-box style electronic quantum states. However the quantum well is not infinitely deep and the wavefunctions of these states penetrate outside the surface where the electron is bound by its own image-charge attraction. Therefore a series of discrete, vacant states reach out from the thin film into the vacuum increasing the probability of electron transfer from an external atom or molecule to the thin film, especially for the resonant case where the quantum well energy matches that of the atom. We show that “handshake” electron transfer from a highly excited Rydberg atom to these thin-film states is experimentally measurable. Thicker films have a wider 1D box, changing the energetic distribution and image-state contribution to the thin film wavefunctions, resulting in more resonances. Calculations successfully predict the number of resonances and the nature of the thin-film wavefunctions for a given film thickness.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Multistage distributionally robust mixed-integer programming with decision-dependent moment-based ambiguity sets

We study multistage distributionally robust mixed-integer programs under endogenous uncertainty, where the probability distribution of stage-wise uncertainty depends on the decisions made in previous stages. We first consider two ambiguity sets defined by decision-dependent bounds on the first and second moments of uncertain parameters and by mean and covariance matrix that exactly match decision-dependent empirical ones, respectively. For both sets, we show that the subproblem in each stage can be recast as a mixed-integer linear program (MILP). Moreover, we extend the general moment-based ambiguity set in to the multistage decision-dependent setting, and derive mixed-integer semidefinite programming (MISDP) reformulations of stage-wise subproblems. We develop methods for attaining lower and upper bounds of the optimal objective value of the multistage MISDPs, and approximate them using a series of MILPs. We deploy the Stochastic Dual Dynamic integer Programming (SDDiP) method for solving the problem under the three ambiguity sets with risk-neutral or risk-averse objective functions, and conduct numerical studies on multistage facility-location instances having diverse sizes under different parameter and uncertainty settings. Furthermore, our results show that the SDDiP quickly finds optimal solutions for moderate-sized instances under the first two ambiguity sets, and also finds good approximate bounds for the multistage MISDPs derived under the third ambiguity set. We also demonstrate the efficacy of incorporating decision-dependent distributional ambiguity in multistage decision-making processes.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Comparative Study of Wind Energy Potential Estimation Methods for Wind Sites in Togo and Benin (West Sub-Saharan Africa)

The characterization of wind speed distribution and the optimal assessment of wind energy potential are critical factors in selecting a suitable site for wind power plants (WPP). The Weibull distribution law has been used extensively to analyze the wind characteristics of candidate WPP sites, and to estimate the available and deliverable energy. This paper presents a comparative study of five wind energy resource assessment methods as they applied to the context of wind sites in West Sub-Saharan Africa. We investigated three numerical approaches, namely, the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), the multilayer perceptron method (MLP), and support vector regression (SVR), to derive the distribution law of wind speeds and to optimally quantify the corresponding wind energy potential. Next, we compared these three approaches to two well-known Weibull distribution law-based methods: the empirical method of Justus (EMJ) and the maximum likelihood method (MLM). Case study results indicated that the neural network-based methods, ANFIS and MLP, yielded the most accurate distribution fits and wind energy potential estimates, and consequently, are the most recommended methods for the wind sites in Togo and Benin. The orders of magnitude of the root mean squared error (RMSE) in estimating the recoverable energy using ANFIS were, respectively, 10-4 and 10-5 for Lomé and Cotonou, while MLP achieved an RMSE order of magnitude of 10-3 for both sites.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2014

LyMAS: Predicting large-scale Lyα forest statistics from the dark matter density field

We describe Lyα Mass Association Scheme (LyMAS), a method of predicting clustering statistics in the Lyα forest on large scales from moderate-resolution simulations of the dark matter (DM) distribution, with calibration from high-resolution hydrodynamic simulations of smaller volumes. We use the 'Horizon-MareNostrum' simulation, a 50 h {sup –1} Mpc comoving volume evolved with the adaptive mesh hydrodynamic code RAMSES, to compute the conditional probability distribution P(F{sub s} |δ {sub s}) of the transmitted flux F{sub s} , smoothed (one-dimensionally, 1D) over the spectral resolution scale, on the DM density contrast δ {sub s}, smoothed (three-dimensionally, 3D) over a similar scale. In this study we adopt the spectral resolution of the SDSS-III Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (BOSS) at z = 2.5, and we find optimal results for a DM smoothing length σ = 0.3 h {sup –1} Mpc (comoving). In its simplest form, LyMAS draws randomly from the hydro-calibrated P(F{sub s} |δ {sub s}) to convert DM skewers into Lyα forest pseudo-spectra, which are then used to compute cross-sightline flux statistics. In extended form, LyMAS exactly reproduces both the 1D power spectrum and one-point flux distribution of the hydro simulation spectra. Applied to the MareNostrum DM field, LyMAS accurately predicts the two-point conditional flux distribution and flux correlation function of the full hydro simulation for transverse sightline separations as small as 1 h {sup –1} Mpc, including redshift-space distortion effects. It is substantially more accurate than a deterministic density-flux mapping ({sup F}luctuating Gunn-Peterson Approximation{sup )}, often used for large-volume simulations of the forest. With the MareNostrum calibration, we apply LyMAS to 1024{sup 3} N-body simulations of a 300 h {sup –1} Mpc and 1.0 h {sup –1} Gpc cube to produce large, publicly available catalogs of mock BOSS spectra that probe a large comoving volume. LyMAS will be a powerful tool for interpreting 3D Lyα forest data, thereby transforming measurements from BOSS and other massive quasar absorption surveys into constraints on dark energy, DM, space geometry, and intergalactic medium physics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

SU-E-T-398: Evaluation of Radiobiological Parameters Using Serial Tumor Imaging During Radiotherapy as An Inverse Ill-Posed Problem

Purpose: Combination of serial tumor imaging with radiobiological modeling can provide more accurate information on the nature of treatment response and what underlies resistance. The purpose of this article is to improve the algorithms related to imaging-based radiobilogical modeling of tumor response. Methods: Serial imaging of tumor response to radiation therapy represents a sum of tumor cell sensitivity, tumor growth rates, and the rate of cell loss which are not separated explicitly. Accurate treatment response assessment would require separation of these radiobiological determinants of treatment response because they define tumor control probability. We show that the problem of reconstruction of radiobiological parameters from serial imaging data can be considered as inverse ill-posed problem described by the Fredholm integral equation of the first kind because it is governed by a sum of several exponential processes. Therefore, the parameter reconstruction can be solved using regularization methods. Results: To study the reconstruction problem, we used a set of serial CT imaging data for the head and neck cancer and a two-level cell population model of tumor response which separates the entire tumor cell population in two subpopulations of viable and lethally damage cells. The reconstruction was done using a least squared objective function and a simulated annealing algorithm. Using in vitro data for radiobiological parameters as reference data, we shown that the reconstructed values of cell surviving fractions and potential doubling time exhibit non-physical fluctuations if no stabilization algorithms are applied. The variational regularization allowed us to obtain statistical distribution for cell surviving fractions and cell number doubling times comparable to in vitro data. Conclusion: Our results indicate that using variational regularization can increase the number of free parameters in the model and open the way to development of more advanced algorithms which take into account tumor heterogeneity, for example, related to hypoxia.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Differential Credibility of Climate Modes in CMIP6

This work quantitatively evaluates the fidelity with which the northern annular mode (NAM), southern annular mode (SAM), Pacific–North American pattern (PNA), El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO), and the first-order mode interactions are represented in Earth system model (ESM) output from the CMIP6 archive. Several skill metrics are used as part of a differential credibility assessment (DCA) of both spatial and temporal characteristics of the modes across ESMs, ESM families, and specific ESM realizations relative to ERA5. The spatial patterns and probability distributions are generally well represented but skill scores that measure the degree to which the frequencies of maximum variance are captured are consistently lower for most ESMs and climate modes. Substantial variability in skill scores manifests across realizations from individual ESMs for the PNA and oceanic modes. Further, the ESMs consistently overestimate the strength of the NAM–PNA first-order interaction and underestimate the NAM–AMO connection. Furthermore, these results suggest that the choice of ESM and ESM realizations will continue to play a critical role in determining climate projections at the global and regional scale at least in the near term.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2011

Partitioning of Nanoparticles into Organic Phases and Model Cells

There is a recognized need to understand and predict the fate, transport and bioavailability of engineered nanoparticles (ENPs) in aquatic and soil ecosystems. Recent research focuses on either collection of empirical data (e.g., removal of a specific NP through water or soil matrices under variable experimental conditions) or precise NP characterization (e.g. size, degree of aggregation, morphology, zeta potential, purity, surface chemistry, and stability). However, it is almost impossible to transition from these precise measurements to models suitable to assess the NP behavior in the environment with complex and heterogeneous matrices. For decades, the USEPA has developed and applies basic partitioning parameters (e.g., octanol-water partition coefficients) and models (e.g., EPI Suite, ECOSAR) to predict the environmental fate, bioavailability, and toxicity of organic pollutants (e.g., pesticides, hydrocarbons, etc.). In this project we have investigated the hypothesis that NP partition coefficients between water and organic phases (octanol or lipid bilayer) is highly dependent on their physiochemical properties, aggregation, and presence of natural constituents in aquatic environments (salts, natural organic matter), which may impact their partitioning into biological matrices (bioaccumulation) and human exposure (bioavailability) as well as the eventual usage in modeling the fate and bioavailability of ENPs. In this report, we use the terminology "partitioning" to operationally define the fraction of ENPs distributed among different phases. The mechanisms leading to this partitioning probably involve both chemical force interactions (hydrophobic association, hydrogen bonding, ligand exchange, etc.) and physical forces that bring the ENPs in close contact with the phase interfaces (diffusion, electrostatic interactions, mixing turbulence, etc.). Our work focuses on partitioning, but also provides insight into the relative behavior of ENPs as either "more like dissolved substances" or "more like colloids" as the division between behaviors of macromolecules versus colloids remains ill-defined. Below we detail our work on two broadly defined objectives: (i) Partitioning of ENP into octanol, lipid bilayer, and water, and (ii) disruption of lipid bilayers by ENPs. We have found that the partitioning of NP reaches pseudo-equilibrium distributions between water and organic phases. The equilibrium partitioning most strongly depends on the particle surface charge, which leads us to the conclusion that electrostatic interactions are critical to understanding the fate of NP in the environment. We also show that the kinetic rate at which particle partition is a function of their size (small particles partition faster by number) as can be predicted from simple DLVO models. We have found that particle number density is the most effective dosimetry to present our results and provide quantitative comparison across experiments and experimental platforms. Cumulatively, our work shows that lipid bilayers are a more effective organic phase than octanol because of the definable surface area and ease of interpretation of the results. Our early comparison of NP partitioning between water and lipids suggest that this measurement can be predictive of bioaccumulation in aquatic organisms. We have shown that nanoparticle disrupt lipid bilayer membranes and detail how NP-bilayer interaction leads to the malfunction of lipid bilayers in regulating the fluxes of ionic charges and molecules. Our results show that the disruption of the lipid membranes is similar to that of toxin melittin, except single particles can disrupt a bilayer. We show that only a single particle is required to disrupt a 150 nm DOPC liposome. The equilibrium leakage of membranes is a function of the particle number density and particle surface charge, consistent with results from our partitioning experiments. Our disruption experiments with varying surface functionality show that positively charged particles (poly amine) are most disruptive, consistent with in in vitro toxicity panels using cell cultures. Overall, this project has resulted in 8 published or submitted archival papers and has been presented 12 times. We have trained five students and provided growth opportunities for a postdoc.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2010

Estimate of Undulator Magnet Damage Due to Beam Finder Wire Measurements

Beam Finder Wire (BFW) devices will be installed at each break in the Undulator magnet line. These devices will scan small wires across the beam causing some electrons to lose energy through bremsstrahlung. The degraded electrons are subsequently detected downstream of a set of vertical dipole magnets after they pass through the vacuum chamber. This signal can then be used to accurately determine the beam position with respect to the BFW wire. The choice of the wire diameter, scan speed, and operating parameters, depends on the trade-off between the signal size and the radiation damage to the undulator magnets. In this note I estimate the rate of undulator magnet damage that results from scanning as a function of, wire size, scan speed, and average beam current. A separate analysis of the signal size was carried out by Wu. The damage estimate is primarily based on two sources: the first, Fasso, is used to estimate the amount of radiation generated and then absorbed by the magnets; the second, Alderman et. al., is used to estimate the amount of damage the magnet undergoes as a result of the absorbed radiation. Fasso performed a detailed calculation of the radiation, including neutron fluence, that results from a the electron beam passing through a 100 micron diamond foil inserted just in front of the undulator line. Fasso discussed the signficance of various types of radiation and stated that photoneutrons probably play a major role. The estimate in this paper assumes the neutron fluence is the only significant cause of radiation-induced demagnetization. The specific results I use from Fasso's paper are reproduced here in Figure 1, which shows the radial distribution of the integrated neutron fluence per day in the undulator magnets, and Figure 2, which shows the absorbed radiation dose all along the undulator line. In the longitudinal dimension, Fasso's calculation, (see Figure 2), shows that the radiation dose is widely distributed all along the undulator line, but is highest around 70 m from the front of the undulator line where the foil is. At the 70 m point, for the purpose of calculating the demagnetization, I chose a conservative estimate for the effective neutron flux of 1.0 x 10{sup 13} n/cm{sup 2}/day. As can be seen in Figure 1, this choice is representative of the flux nearest the beam where it is the highest. A less conservative estimate, but perhaps more accurate, estimate of the effective flux, would be the average flux in the magnet block, which is roughly one half as much.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Distribution theory for Schrödinger’s integral equation

Much of the literature on point interactions in quantum mechanics has focused on the differential form of Schrödinger’s equation. This paper, in contrast, investigates the integral form of Schrödinger’s equation. While both forms are known to be equivalent for smooth potentials, this is not true for distributional potentials. Here, we assume that the potential is given by a distribution defined on the space of discontinuous test functions. First, by using Schrödinger’s integral equation, we confirm a seminal result by Kurasov, which was originally obtained in the context of Schrödinger’s differential equation. This hints at a possible deeper connection between both forms of the equation. We also sketch a generalisation of Kurasov’s [J. Math. Anal. Appl. 201(1), 297–323 (1996)] result to hypersurfaces. Second, we derive a new closed-form solution to Schrödinger’s integral equation with a delta prime potential. This potential has attracted considerable attention, including some controversy. Interestingly, the derived propagator satisfies boundary conditions that were previously derived using Schrödinger’s differential equation. Third, we derive boundary conditions for “super-singular” potentials given by higher-order derivatives of the delta potential. These boundary conditions cannot be incorporated into the normal framework of self-adjoint extensions. We show that the boundary conditions depend on the energy of the solution and that probability is conserved. This paper thereby confirms several seminal results and derives some new ones. In sum, it shows that Schrödinger’s integral equation is a viable tool for studying singular interactions in quantum mechanics.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

Computational fluid dynamics modeling and analysis of silica nanoparticle synthesis in a flame spray pyrolysis reactor

Flame Spray Pyrolysis (FSP) is a method for large-scale production of nanoparticles and nanoscale powders employed in a wide range of industrial applications. Particle size and morphology are complex functions of the physicochemical phenomena occurring in the FSP reactor. An extensive study of FSP-related phenomena can be utilized to develop effective strategies for achieving desired particle size/morphology and scaling up the overall yield of an FSP system. In this work, a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model of an FSP reactor is developed to simulate the coupling of key phenomena involved in the particle synthesis process: liquid spray breakup and evaporation, mixing, combustion, and particle formation/growth of silica nanoparticles. Herein, the particle sizes and their distributions from the CFD simulations are validated against experimental data. Subsequently, the simulations are utilized to investigate the impact of process parameters on the resultant flame dynamics and particle growth. Firstly, the CFD results show that the particle sizes are strongly correlated with the precursor concentration in the solvent. At lower precursor concentrations, the spread of the distribution is relatively insensitive to the value of the concentration. At higher concentrations, the spread is higher as the collision probability between particles is higher. Secondly, increasing the pilot flow rate increases the length of the pilot flames impacting the local ignition location of the spray flame. Lastly, it is shown that the dispersion gas flow rate strongly influences the spray flame shape. This shape can be used for control of particle growth as it helps determine the regions of high temperature and the residence time of the particles in the high temperature region enabling the design and process optimization of the FSP reactor.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2016

A study on the cytotoxicity of carbon-based materials

With an aim to understand the origin and key contributing factors towards carboninduced cytotoxicity, we have studied five different carbon samples with diverse surface area, pore width, shape and size, conductivity and surface functionality. All the carbon materials were characterized with surface area and pore size distribution, x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) and electron microscopic imaging. We performed cytotoxicity study in Caco-2 cells by colorimetric assay, oxidative stress analysis by reactive oxygen species (ROX) detection, cellular metabolic activity measurement by adenosine triphosphate (ATP) depletion and visualization of cellular internalization by TEM imaging. The carbon materials demonstrated a varying degree of cytotoxicity in contact with Caco-2 cells. The lowest cell survival rate was observed for nanographene, which possessed the minimal size amongst all the carbon samples under study. None of the carbons induced oxidative stress to the cells as indicated by the ROX generation results. Cellular metabolic activity study revealed that the carbon materials caused ATP depletion in cells and nanographene caused the highest depletion. Visual observation by TEM imaging indicated the cellular internalization of nanographene. This study confirmed that the size is the key cause of carbon-induced cytotoxicity and it is probably caused by the ATP depletion within the cell.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Probabilistic Hazard Assessment for Tornadoes, Straight-Line Wind, and Extreme Precipitation at the Savannah River Site

Recent data sets for three meteorological phenomena with the potential to inflict damage on SRS facilities – tornadoes, straight-line winds, and heavy precipitation – are analyzed using appropriate statistical techniques to estimate the occurrence probabilities for these events in the future. Summaries of the results for DOE-mandated return periods and comparisons to similar calculations performed in 2013 by Werth et al. (W2013) are given. Using tornado statistics for i) the combined states of Georgia and South Carolina, and ii) a 2⁰ square area surrounding SRS, we calculated the probability per year of any location at SRS being struck by a tornado (the ‘strike’ probability) and the probability that any point will experience winds above set thresholds. The strike probability was calculated to be 7.04E-4 (1 chance in 1420) per year and tornadic wind speeds for DOE mandated return periods of 50,000 years (corresponding to wind design category 3 (WDC-3), and 125,000 years (meeting WDC-4) (USDOE, 2016) were estimated to be 132 mph and 147 mph, respectively. By contrast, default tornado wind speeds taken from ANSI/ANS-2.3-2011 are somewhat higher: 161 mph for return periods of 50,000 years and 173 mph every 125,000 years (ANS, 2011). Although the ANS and the SRS evaluation used the same basic model (Ramsdell and Rishel, 2007), the region defined in ANS 2.3 that encompasses the SRS also includes areas of the Great Plains and lower Midwest, regions with much higher occurrence frequencies of strong tornadoes. The SRS straight-line wind values associated with various return periods were calculated by fitting existing wind data to a GEV1 distribution and extrapolating the values for any return period from the tail of that function. For the DOE mandated return periods, we expect straight-line winds of 117 mph every 2500 years (the required WDC-3 standard) and 125 mph every 6250 years (WDC-4) at any point within the SRS. These values are similar to those from the ANS-2.3-2011 report, which has wind speeds of 125mph and 133 mph for return periods of 2500 years and 6250 years, respectively. For extreme precipitation, we compared the fits of two different theoretical extreme-value distributions and applied the one that fit the data best for each of several accumulation periods. The DOE mandated 6-hr accumulated rainfall for return periods of 10,000 years (corresponding to precipitation design category 3 (PDC-3) and 25,000 years (PDC-4) were estimated as 9.1 inches and 10.1 inches, respectively. For the 24-hr rainfall return periods of 10,000 years and 25,000 years, total rainfall estimates were 12.02 inches and 13.17 inches, respectively, higher than comparable values provided in the W2013 report.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluating Safeguards Statistical Assumptions via Stochastic Simulation

Herein, the authors built and tested a stochastic simulation to estimate achieved detection probabilities (DPs) on a stratum basis, over a tailorable range of diverted amounts from 0 to 2 SQ, using typical IAEA inspection data: i.e., SQ in stratum, number of items, number of gross/partial/bias defect measurements conducted, and realistic relative standard deviation (RSD) values for typical IAEA verification measurements. For bulk strata, the model calculates achieved DP at 0.01 SQ diversion increments; for item strata, the model calculates DP using the smallest realistic diversion increment (e.g., a plate, pin, or coupon). After successfully benchmarking against IAEA deterministic models, the simulation was used to test the sensitivity of DP to certain standard assumptions and selected input parameters. First, the equal defect assumption was tested; the results suggest significant complexity in the effectiveness of partial defect measurements. Next, the authors explored the sensitivity of DP to the assumed RSD of attribute tests. Then, the authors compared non-normal models for instrument performance (e.g., logistic, step, or arbitrary functions) to the typical results from a normal distribution (characterized by RSD). This last comparison was supplemented with experimentally derived performance data for an HM-5. The HM-5 was used to make enrichment measurements on both LEU and HEU MTR fuel elements as plates were removed, and the results fit with logistic and step curves and applied in the simulation. These stochastic DP results were compared to DP estimates from a deterministic model assuming a normal curve and typical RSD, yielding insights that could improve effectiveness in the field. These early results illustrate the potential of stochastic models to better understand achieved DP and to improve safeguards effectiveness.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2011

THE POPULATION OF HIGH-REDSHIFT ACTIVE GALACTIC NUCLEI IN THE CHANDRA-COSMOS SURVEY

We present the high-redshift (3 <z < 5.3) 0.5-2 keV number counts and the 2-10 keV (rest-frame) space density of X-ray-selected active galactic nuclei (AGNs) detected in the Chandra Cosmic Evolution Survey. The sample comprises 81 X-ray-detected sources with available spectroscopic (31) and photometric (50) redshifts plus 20 sources with a formal z{sub phot} < 3 but with a broad photometric redshift probability distribution, such that z{sub phot} + 1{sigma} > 3. Eighty-one sources are selected in the 0.5-2 keV band, fourteen are selected in the 2-10 keV and six in the 0.5-10 keV bands. We sample the high-luminosity (log L{sub (2-10keV)} > 44.15 erg s{sup -1}) space density up to z {approx} 5 and a fainter luminosity range (43.5 erg s{sup -1} < log L{sub (2-10keV)} < 44.15 erg s{sup -1}) than previous studies, up to z = 3.5. We weighted the contribution to the number counts and the space density of the sources with photometric redshift by using their probability of being at z > 3. We find that the space density of high-luminosity AGNs declines exponentially at all the redshifts, confirming the trend observed for optically selected quasars. At lower luminosity, the measured space density is not conclusive, and a larger sample of faint sources is needed. Comparisons with optical luminosity functions and black hole formation models are presented together with prospects for future surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Description of the multinucleon transfer mechanism for Ca 48 + Pu 244 and Kr 86 + Pt 198 reactions in a quantal transport approach

Multinucleon transfer (MNT) reactions involving heavy projectile and target combinations stand as a promising method for synthesizing new neutron-rich exotic nuclei, which may not be possible using hot or cold fusion reactions or fragmentation. Exploring the mechanisms behind MNT reactions is essential and it requires a comprehensive theoretical framework that can explain the physical observables in these reactions. This work aims to show that the quantal diffusion approach based on the stochastic mean-field (SMF) theory is capable of explaining the reaction dynamics observed in MNT reactions. Primary product mass distributions in 48 Ca + 244 Pu reaction at E c.m. = 203.2 MeV and 86 Kr + 198 Pt reaction at E c.m. = 324.2 MeV are calculated and compared with the available experimental data. In this work, we utilize the time-dependent Hartree-Fock (TDHF) calculations to analyze the mean-field reaction dynamics computationally in the reactions 48 Ca + 244 Pu and 86 Kr + 198 Pt for a broad range of initial angular momenta. Quantal transport description based on the SMF approach is used to calculate quantal diffusion coefficients and mass variances in 48 Ca + 244 Pu and 86 Kr + 198 Pt systems. The primary products arising from quasifission reactions are described by joint probability distribution in the SMF approach and those arising from fusion-fission are estimated by using the statistical deexcitation code gemini + +. Mean values of charge and mass numbers, scattering angles of the primary reaction products, and the total kinetic energies after the collision are calculated within the TDHF framework for a broad range of initial angular momenta. Throughout all the collisions, drift toward the mass symmetry and large mass dispersion associated with this drift are observed. Here, the calculated primary fragment and mass distributions using the SMF approach successfully explain experimental observations for the 48 Ca + 244 Pu and 86 Kr + 198 Pt systems. The primary mass distributions, mean values of binary products, and mass dispersions are determined and results are compared with the available experimental data. The observed agreement between the experimental data and SMF results highlights the effectiveness of the quantal diffusion mechanism based on the SMF approach, which does not include any adjustable parameters other than standard parameters of Skyrme energy density functional.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

The phase space of z∼1.2 SpARCS clusters: Using Herschel to probe dust temperature as a function of environment and accretion history

We present a five-band Herschel study (100–500 μm) of three galaxy clusters at z∼1.2 from the Spitzer Adaptation of the Red-Sequence Cluster Survey. With a sample of 120 spectroscopically confirmed cluster members, we investigate the role of environment on galaxy properties utilizing the projected cluster phase space (line-of-sight velocity versus clustercentric radius), which probes the time-averaged galaxy density to which a galaxy has been exposed. We divide cluster galaxies into phase-space bins of (r/r{sub 200})×(Δv/σ{sub v}), tracing a sequence of accretion histories in phase space. Stacking optically star-forming cluster members on the Herschel maps, we measure average infrared star formation rates, and, for the first time in high-redshift galaxy clusters, dust temperatures for dynamically distinct galaxy populations—namely, recent infalls and those that were accreted onto the cluster at an earlier epoch. Proceeding from the infalling to virialized (central) regions of phase space, we find a steady decrease in the specific star formation rate and increase in the stellar age of star-forming cluster galaxies. We perform a probability analysis to investigate all acceptable infrared spectral energy distributions within the full parameter space and measure a ∼4σ drop in the average dust temperature of cluster galaxies in an intermediate phase-space bin, compared to an otherwise flat trend with phase space. We suggest one plausible quenching mechanism which may be consistent with these trends, invoking ram-pressure stripping of the warmer dust for galaxies within this intermediate accretion phase.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗