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At least 1,279 records · Page 71

Environmental impacts of dam reservoir filling in the East Amazon

Mitigating the environmental impacts caused by hydroelectric dams is a worldwide challenge. The aquatic ecosystem is the most impacted during the reservoir filling phase, yet biogeochemical dynamics at this stage are not well-studied. Here we evaluate water quality and hydraulic parameters in the Araguari River (Amapá/Brazil) during the filling of the Ferreira Gomes Hydroelectric Power Plant reservoir (UHEFG). Five field campaigns were performed from July 2014 to August 2015 across nine sample sites within the reservoir (P1, P2, …P9) and only one downstream (P10). The following key variables were monitored: Trophic State Index (TSI), Total Coliforms (TC), E. coli (EC) and Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a), along with physical and chemical variables (Temperature, Suspended Solids, Total Dissolved Solids, Electrical Conductivity, Turbidity, Color, pH, DO, Al3+, NH4+, Cl-, Mg1+, Ca2+, total Phosphorous, NH3, NO3-, and SO42). Besides that, hydraulic-operational variables were also investigated: inflows (Qa), outflows (Qd), and variation in reservoir volume (Vol%). Multiple Regression Analyses showed that the key parameters were both significantly influenced by physio-chemical and hydraulic variables (0.46=R2adj=0.99, p<0.05). The DO showed significant spatial variation, being influenced by the turbulence from the Coaracy Nunes dam (UHECN) upstream and the UHEFG dam downstream. The Vol% influenced the TSI, which ranged from oligotrophic to hypertrophic and eventually stabilized at mesotrophic. The levels of TSI, TC, and Chl-a decreased and the level of E. coli increased (p<0.05) as a function of Vol%. A Cluster Analysis showed the formation of three spatial groups - two inside the reservoir and one downstream (P10). This suggests that in the rainy season or transition season, the hydraulic residence time in the reservoir is very low (16 = thr = 36 h) when hydrodynamic processes are dominant. In the dry season (thr ˜ 1 month), biogeochemical and hydrodynamic processes occur at similar time scales to the nutrient and microbial abundance. These results confirm the hypothesis that the filling phase has significant impacts on the key parameters of the water quality (p<0.05). We conclude that the filling phase of the UHEFG reservoir generated significant environmental impacts, which have repercussions even retrospectively.

Amazon, biogeochemistry, ecosystem, extreme event,↗

Ocean state estimation for climate studies

Climate variabilities, which are of interest to CLIVAR, involve a broad range of spatial and temporal scales. Ocean state estimation (often referred to as ocean data assimilation), by optimally combining observations and models, becomes an important element of CLIVAR.

oceanography climate↗

Xanthos-Lake Dataset

The Xanthos-Lake v1.0 dataset provides the input data, trained machine-learning models, and simulation outputs needed to characterize lake water balance, snow and ice conditions, and mixing-layer temperature within the Xanthos global hydrological modeling framework. The dataset supports lake representation across a wide range of lake sizes and hydroclimatic conditions by combining xLSIM, a basin-specific machine-learning emulator of lake snow, ice, ice-cover fraction, and mixing-layer temperature, with the Xanthos-Lake water-balance model. The archive contains NetCDF datasets used to train and evaluate xLSIM, trained model weights, processed meteorological and lake-property inputs, and basin- and lake-category-specific simulation outputs. These materials are organized into four primary data groups, described below. Snowice_model_inputs: Contains the NetCDF input data used to train xLSIM. The xLSIM machine-learning framework uses three lake-based datasets. The meteorological forcing dataset provides monthly relative humidity, specific humidity, surface wind speed, maximum and minimum air temperature, downward longwave and shortwave radiation, snowfall, surface air pressure, and total precipitation. Lake surface area is included as an additional static predictor. The target-state dataset provides lake ice thickness, snow depth, snow cover, and lake mixing-layer temperature, while a companion lake-surface dataset provides the lake ice-cover fraction. Before training, ice thickness and snow depth are converted from meters to centimeters, mixing-layer temperature is converted from kelvin to degrees Celsius and constrained to nonnegative values, and ice-cover fraction is converted from a fraction to a percentage. The predictor variables are normalized using statistics calculated across the selected lakes and time steps. Snowice_model_outputs: Contains the NetCDF outputs generated by xLSIM. For each basin, xLSIM produces a file containing observed and predicted lake-state variables for the training, validation, and testing periods. The modeled variables include lake ice thickness, snow depth, snow cover, mixing-layer temperature, and lake ice-cover fraction. For basins without a sufficiently persistent snow-and-ice signal, the emulator predicts only mixing-layer temperature. The outputs also include training and validation loss histories, the selected model configuration, identifiers of the lakes used in training, and SHAP-based feature-importance information at the global, lake, and seasonal-regime levels. The trained machine-learning model weights are provided separately within the dataset archive. Together, these files support model evaluation and subsequent coupling with the Xanthos-Lake water-balance framework. XanthosLAKES: Contains the NetCDF input data used by the Xanthos-Lake framework. Monthly meteorological inputs include relative and specific humidity, downward shortwave and longwave radiation, mean, maximum, and minimum air temperature, wind speed, precipitation, snowfall, and surface air pressure. Static lake-property datasets provide lake identifiers, geographic locations, surface area, volume, mean depth, elevation, drainage area, fetch, outlet-routing information, and associated Xanthos grid-cell attributes. Separate bathymetric datasets provide the coefficients of the area–depth and volume–depth relationships for each aggregated lake unit. GLEV-based records provide observed lake surface area and evaporation data used to initialize lake states, define reference conditions, and calibrate and evaluate the model. Xanthos-Lake Outputs: Contains the basin- and lake-category-specific NetCDF outputs generated by Xanthos-Lake. Monthly variables include lake surface area, storage volume, outlet discharge, evaporation rate, evaporation volume, lake–groundwater exchange, lake inflow, ice thickness, snow depth, snow-cover fraction, ice-cover fraction, and mixing-layer temperature. The files also contain lake-specific calibration and validation statistics, including normalized root-mean-square error, mean absolute error, Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency, Kling–Gupta efficiency, and percent bias. Stored calibrated and derived parameters include the weir discharge coefficient, fractional freeboard, groundwater exchange coefficient, reference water level, corresponding reference surface area and storage volume, weir-width adjustment factor, and the fraction of routed inflow entering the lake. Basin identifiers, lake category, simulation period, calibration and validation periods, and parameter-schema information are retained as NetCDF metadata.

Abeshu, Guta [Pacific Northwest National Laborator↗

Driven, steady-state RFP computations

The pseudospectral three-dimensional MHD code of Dahlburg et al. (1986 and 1987) is used to compute the dynamical behavior of a channel of magnetofluid carrying an axial current and magnetic flux. This situation contains the essential MHD behavior of the reversed-field pinch (RFP). An externally imposed electric field is applied to an initially current-free magnetofluid and drives currents that rise and eventually fluctuate about values corresponding to pinch ratios Theta of about 1.3, 2.2, and 4.5. A period of violent turbulence leads to an approximately force-free core, surrounded by an active MHD boundary layer that is not force-free. A steady state is reached that can apparently be sustained indefinitely (for several hundred Alfven transit times or longer). The turbulence level and time variability in the steady state increase with increasing Theta. The average toroidal magnetic field at the wall reverses for Theta = 2.2 and 4.5, but not for Theta = 1.3. Negative toroidal current filaments are observed. The Lundquist numbers are of the order of a few hundred.

Dahlburg, J. P.↗

Variability and Trends in Dates of the Last Spring Freeze and the First Fall Freeze over the United States

The timing of the last freeze of the spring and the first freeze in the fall have implications for agriculture and ecosystems in a region, and changes in theses dates are expected with a changing climate. In this study, indices used to represent these dates are computed from the Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2). The indices are analyzed over the United States to assess the climatology, trends, and variability over 1980-2023. In general, the last spring freeze date has trended earlier, and the first fall freeze date has trended later over this period; regional variations in these trends are investigated. We explore drivers of interannual variability in the timing of the last spring freeze and first fall freeze for different regions of the United States.

Natalie Thomas↗

Hedonic Price Estimates of Lake Water Quality: Valued Attribute, Instrumental Variables, and Ecological-Economic Benefits

We estimate the effect of lake water quality on residential housing prices using cross-sectional data on water clarity from 113 lakes across the United States. An instrumental-variables approach is developed to address potential endogeneity bias in the water-clarity variable. Three lake-based physical variables serve as instrumental variables: total nitrogen concentration in lake water, total phosphorus concentration in lake water, and water temperature near the lake surface. The econometric results include three methodological findings: the instruments are valid and strong; the ordinary-least-squares estimate of the coefficient on the water-clarity variable is unbiased; and water clarity is the attribute of water quality valued in the housing market. The estimated water-clarity effect shows that a one-tenth of a meter change in water clarity leads to a one-percent change in housing price, or an elasticity of 0.20 at mean clarity. Coupling this effect with estimates of an ecological production function, a lake-specific benefit index is developed that shows the effect on housing values of bringing lakes into compliance with the US Environmental Protection Agency's regional recommendations for phosphorous concentration in lake waters.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Configuration Space Integration for Adsorbate Partition Functions: The Effect of Anharmonicity on the Thermophysical Properties of CO–Pt(111) and CH 3 OH–Cu(111)

A method for computing anharmonic thermophysical properties for adsorbates on metal surfaces has been extended to include libration, or frustrated rotation. Classical phase space integration is used with Monte Carlo sampling of the configuration space to obtain the partition function of CO on Pt(111) and CH 3 OH on Cu(111). A minima-preserving neural network potential energy surrogate is used within the integration routines. Direct state counting using discrete variable representation is used to benchmark the results. We find that the phase space integration approach is in excellent agreement with the direct state counting results. Comparison with standard models such as the harmonic oscillator indicates that anharmonicity contributes significantly to the thermodynamic properties of CH 3 OH on Cu(111). We find that there is also a considerable difference between the harmonic oscillator and phase space integration for CO on Pt(111), although the discrepancy can largely be attributed to the presence of multiple binding sites within the unit cell. We demonstrate that a multisite harmonic oscillator model might be sufficient for CO-Pt(111). A more thorough description of the potential energy surface, which can be achieved with phase space integration, is necessary for weakly bound adsorbates such as CH 3 OH. In conclusion, the thermophysical properties were used to calculate free energies of adsorption on the respective metals, and subsequently the equilibrium constants and Langmuir isotherms in relevant temperature ranges. The results show that the choice of model to obtain partition functions greatly affects the resulting surface coverages in kinetic models.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Airborne measurements of air pollution chemistry and transport. 1: Initial survey of major air basins in California

An instrumented aircraft has been used to study photochemical air pollution in the State of California. Simultaneous measurements of the most important chemical constituents (ozone, total oxidant, hydrocarbons, and nitrogen oxides, as well as several meteorological variables) were made. State-of-the-art measurement techniques and sampling procedures are discussed. Data from flights over the South Coast Air Basin, the San Francisco Bay Area, the San Joaquin Valley, the Santa Clara and Salinas Valleys, and the Pacific Ocean within 200 miles of the California coast are presented. Pollutants were found to be concentrated in distant layers up to at least 18,000 feet. In many of these layers, the pollutant concentrations were much higher than at ground level. These findings bring into serious question the validity of the present practice of depending solely on data from ground-based monitoring stations for predictive models.

Gloria, H. R.↗

Modelling the slow climatic attractor

Attempts to model the evolution of the slow-response parts of the climatic system such as the global ice mass are reviewed, and the fundamental laws governing the complete complex multidomain slow system, called the slow climatic attractor, are analyzed. The uses of paleoclimatic records are discussed, and a low-order model for the late Quaternary variations that constitutes a credible global representation of the slow climatic attractor is presented. It is shown that although according to the model the climatic system is centered on an unstable equilibrium, the points of the limit cycle attractor are quite stable and robust. It is also noted that one major deficiency of the model is its inability to portray the geographic spatial variability of climatic mean states. However, at least with regard to atmospheric CO2, estimates of the geographic fields of all significant atmospheric and surface boundary layer climate variables are deducible.

Saltzman, Barry↗

Lightning and Other Influences On Tropical Tropospheric Ozone: Empirical Studies of Covariation

Tropical and subtropical tropospheric ozone are important radiatively active species, with particularly large effects in the upper third of the troposphere. Temporal variability of O3 has proved difficult to simulate day by day in process models. Thus, individual roles of lightning, biomass burning, and other pollution in providing precursor NO(x), radicals, and chain carriers (CO, hydrocarbons) remain unquantified by simulation, and it is theoretically reasonable that individual roles are magnified by a joint synergy. We use wavelet analysis and Burg-algorithm maximum entropy spectral analyses to describe time-scales and correlation of ozone with proxies for processes controlling its concentration. Our empirical studies link time variations apparent in several datasets: the SHADOZ (Southern Hemisphere Additional Ozonesondes) network stations (Nairobi, Fiji), and auxiliary series with power to explain ozone-determining processes, with some interpretation based on the TTO (Tropical Tropospheric Ozone) product derived from TOMS (the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer). The auxiliary series are The OTD/LIS(Optical Transient Detector/Lightning Imaging Sensor) measurements of the lightning NO(x) source, the OLR (Outgoing Longwave Radiation)measurement of high-topped clouds, and standard meteorological variables from the United States NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) and Data Assimilation Office analyses. Concentrating on equatorial ozone, we compare the statistical evidence on the variability of tropospheric ozone. Important variations occur on approximately two-week, two-month (Madden-Julian Oscillation) and annual scales, and relations with OLR suggest controls associated with continental clouds. Hence we are now using the Lightning Imaging Sensor data set to indicate NO(x) sources. We report initial results defining relative roles of the process mentioned affecting O3 using their covariance properties.

Chatfield, Robert B.↗

Role of Sea‐Surface Salinity in Simulating Historical Decadal Variations of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in a Coupled Climate Model

Abstract Extending climate prediction from seasonal to decadal timescales requires realistic initialization of not only upper ocean heat content but also the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). However, it remains a major challenge to realistically initialize AMOC in a coupled system while also maintaining a balanced atmosphere‐ocean initial state. This study demonstrates the feasibility of generating fully coupled historical states with realistic AMOC variability. Employing a forced ocean—sea‐ice (FOSI) model simulation as the “truth,” we show reproducibility of key features of historical AMOC decadal variability in a fully coupled model by restoring sea‐surface salinity, in addition to sea‐surface temperature restoring widely used in seasonal prediction. The atmospheric state of the restored coupled model solution is much closer to that of the free coupled simulation than to the observations used in FOSI, pointing to potential advantages of using this approach for initializing decadal predictions with reduced ocean initialization shock.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Drivers of Seasonal Variability in Marine Boundary Layer Aerosol Number Concentration Investigated Using a Steady State Approach

Marine boundary layer (MBL) aerosol particles affect the climate through their interaction with MBL clouds. Although both MBL clouds and aerosol particles have pronounced seasonal cycles, the factors controlling seasonal variability of MBL aerosol particle concentration are not well-constrained. In this paper an aerosol budget is constructed representing the effects of wet deposition, free-tropospheric entrainment, primary surface sources, and advection on the MBL accumulation mode aerosol number concentration (N a ). These terms are further parameterized, and by assuming that on seasonal timescales N a is in steady state, the budget equation is rearranged to form a diagnostic equation for N a based on observable variables. Using data primarily collected in the subtropical northeast Pacific during the MAGIC campaign (Marine ARM (Atmospheric Radiation Measurement) GPCI (GCSS Pacific Cross-section Intercomparison) Investigation of Clouds), estimates of both mean summer and winter N a concentrations are made using the simplified steady-state model and seasonal mean observed variables, and are found to match well with the observed N a . To attribute the modeled difference between summer and winter aerosol concentrations to individual observed variables (e.g. precipitation rate, free-tropospheric aerosol number concentration), a local sensitivity analysis is combined with the seasonal difference in observed variables. This analysis shows that despite wintertime precipitation frequency being lower than summer, the higher winter precipitation rate accounted for approximately 60% of the modeled seasonal difference in N a , which emphasizes the importance of marine stratocumulus precipitation in determining MBL aerosol concentrations on longer time scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Comparing the Value of Improved Variable Renewable Energy Forecasting Accuracy in South African and United States Power Systems: Preprint

The value associated with an improved VRE forecast in has been quantified in this research. The value of improved VRE forecasts can increase with increasing VRE penetration levels with the range of this value becoming wider at increasing penetration levels. This value also saturates with high levels of improved VRE forecasts as there is relatively lower impact of improving VRE forecasts further. This paper discusses how the improvement of variable renewable energy (VRE) forecasting could impact the South African power system and a United States power system.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Multiwavelength Observations of the Blazar VER J0521+211 during an Elevated TeV Gamma-Ray State

We report on a long-lasting, elevated gamma-ray flux state from VER J0521+211 observed by VERITAS, MAGIC, and Fermi-LAT in 2013 and 2014. The peak integral flux above 200 GeV measured with the nightly binned light curve is (8.8 ± 0.4) × 10 –7 photons m –2 s –1 , or ~37% of the Crab Nebula flux. Multiwavelength observations from X-ray, UV, and optical instruments are also presented. A moderate correlation between the X-ray and TeV gamma-ray fluxes was observed, and the X-ray spectrum appeared harder when the flux was higher. Using the gamma-ray spectrum and four models of the extragalactic background light (EBL), a conservative 95% confidence upper limit on the redshift of the source was found to be z ≤ 0.31. Unlike the gamma-ray and X-ray bands, the optical flux did not increase significantly during the studied period compared to the archival low-state flux. The spectral variability from optical to X-ray bands suggests that the synchrotron peak of the spectral energy distribution (SED) may become broader during flaring states, which can be adequately described with a one-zone synchrotron self-Compton model varying the high-energy end of the underlying particle spectrum. The synchrotron peak frequency of the SED and the radio morphology of the jet from the MOJAVE program are consistent with the source being an intermediate-frequency-peaked BL Lac object.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Monitoring the Black Hole Binary GRS 1758-258 with INTEGRAL and RXTE

The microquasar GRS 1758-258 is one of only three persistent black hole binaries that spend most of their time in the hard spectral state, the other two being Cyg X-l and 1E 1741.7-2942. It therefore provides the rare opportunity for an extensive long term study of this important black hole state which is associated with strong variability and radio jet emission. INTEGRAL has been monitoring the source since the first Galactic Center Deep Exposure season in spring 2003 during two 2-3 months long Galactic Center viewing epochs each year, amounting to 11 epochs including spring of 2008. With the exception of the last epoch quasi-simultaneous RXTE monitoring observations are available as well. Here we present an analysis of the epoch averaged broad band spectra which display considerable long term variability, most notably the occurrence of two soft/off states, extreme examples for the hysteretic behavior of black hole binaries. The hard source spectrum and long exposures allow us to extend the analysis for several epochs to approximately 800 keV using PICsIT data and address the question of the presence of a non-thermal Comptonization component.

Pottschmidt, Katja↗

Effects from equation of state and rheology in dissipative heating in compressible mantle convection

The effects of compressibility on mantle convection are considered, incorporating the effects of equations of state and rheology in the dissipative heating term of the energy equation. The ways in which compression may raise the interior mantle temperature are explicitly demonstrated, and it is shown how this effect can be used to constrain some of the intrinsic parameters associated with the equation of state in the mantle. It is concluded that the coupling between variable viscosity and equation of state in dissipative heating is potentially an important mechanism in mantle convection. These findings emphasize that rheology, equation of state, and radiogenic heating are all linked to each other by nonlinear thermomechanical couplings.

Yuen, David A.↗

LIP: The Livermore Interpolation Package, Version 1.6

This report describes LIP, the Livermore Interpolation Package. LIP was totally rewritten from the package described in [1]. In particular, the independent variables are now referred to as x and y, since it is a general-purpose package that need not be restricted to equation of state data, which uses variables ρ (density) and T (temperature).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

TT Arietis - The low state

A comprehensive photometric and spectroscopic study of the low state of the novalike variable TT Ari has been made with observations spanning the UV to IR spectral regions. The roughly 5 mag drop in the system's luminosity from the high state indicates that the mass-transfer rate decreased by more than two orders of magnitude. The drastic reduction in the luminosity of the accretion disk between the high and low states enabled the white dwarf component to be directly observed for the first time. The broad absorption profiles at various lines and the UV energy distribution are best fitted by a hot white dwarf. A lower limit of 200 pc for the distance to TT Ari is derived, and the behavior of TT Ari is compared to that of another novalike variable, MV Lyr. The long-term photometric behavior of TT Ari makes it a typical member of the VY Scl subclass of novalike variables.

Shafter, A. W.↗