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DOE OSTI2023

Constraining the Reaction Rate of Criegee Intermediates with Carboxylic Acids during the Multiphase Ozonolysis of Aerosolized Alkenes

Criegee intermediates (CIs) are central to the ozonolysis of unsaturated organic compounds, controlling the formation of small fragmentation reaction products and higher molecular weight oligomeric compounds through competing unimolecular and bimolecular pathways. In particular, the reaction of thermalized CI with carboxylic acids (RCOOH) to produce oligomeric α-acyloxyalkyl hydroperoxides (AAHPs) is of interest to the chemical transformation of organic compounds in the atmosphere. In the gas phase, the CI + RCOOH reaction proceeds at supercollisional rates, consistent with a barrierless reaction mechanism. However, the rate of this reaction in condensed phases remains uncertain. Here, we report the results of aerosol flow tube studies of the ozonolysis of submicron organic aerosol containing mixtures of an internal n-alkene (Z-9-tricosene, tri) and a saturated acid (2-hexyldecanoic acid, HDA). The decay of the reactants and formation of reaction products are monitored using atmospheric pressure chemical ionization mass spectrometry (APCI–MS). A 6-fold decrease in the reactive uptake of ozone is observed with increasing acid concentration, consistent with a previous study using alcohol additives. The decay of HDA with ozone exposure shows that HDA scavenges CIs at rates comparable to competing unimolecular pathways involving CIs. The decay kinetics of HDA are analyzed using a simple kinetic model in order to constrain the ratio of the CI + RCOOH and unimolecular CI rate constants. Empirical fitting to this model, combined with theoretical estimates of the unimolecular loss rate, yields a CI + RCOOH rate constant of 1.85 ± 0.27 × 10 –19 cm 3 molec –1 s –1 , which is six orders of magnitude slower than the expected diffusion limit in a liquid organic matrix. Stochastic kinetic simulations are conducted with different values of the CI + RCOOH rate constant to validate this result and show that the diffusion-limited rate is indeed much too rapid to reproduce the experimental results.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

Model Validation and Uncertainty Quantification on the KRUSTY Microreactor Design Using GRIFFIN Neutron Transport Code [Poster]

Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) and INL have developed a GRIFFIN steady state neutronics model for the multiphysics simulations of the Kilopower Reactor Using Sterling TechnologY (KRUSTY) microreactor in the Multiphysics Object Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE). The reliability of such deterministic neutronics models can be validated by comparing with computations from Monte Carlo codes (e.g. MCNP, SERPENT, OpenMC, Shift, etc). Furthermore, potential modeling/design improvements can be identified by incorporating uncertainty quantification (UQ), which can be performed by MOOSE’s Stochastic Tools Module (STM). KRUSTY is a prototype for a 5-kW thermal nuclear-powered space reactor. Its primary components consist of nuclear fuel, heat pipes, a control rod, a reflector, and the shielding. The fuel consists of 3 stacked U-7.65Mo cylinders with a hole in the center for the control rod. 8 liquid sodium heat pipes transfer fission energy from the solid fuel block to the Sterling power conversion system where the energy is extracted, and the cooled sodium flows back to the core via capillary action . The movable Boron Carbide control rod regulates the neutron population during startup or when a reactor temperature boost is needed . The beryllium oxide reflector is in 3 places in the reactor; it surrounds the core axially, it lies beneath the core on a platen, and it is present in the shim. The axial and lower reflectors rest on an adjustable stainless-steel platen that moves upward to cover the fuel and help the reactor reach criticality. Lastly, radial stainless steel surrounds the core offering protection from radiation exposure .

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2019

Spatial gradients in the characteristics of soil-carbon fractions are associated with abiotic features but not microbial communities

Coastal terrestrial-aquatic interfaces (TAIs) are dynamic zones of carbon biogeochemical cycling influenced by landscape-scale salinity gradients. However, there is significant cross-system heterogeneity in salinity influences over TAI soil biogeochemical function, such as gas fluxes and dissolved organic carbon concentrations. One potential explanation for the lack of consistency is unrecognized variation in soil organic carbon chemistry and microbial communities. To provide a foundation for understanding the role of C chemistry and microbial communities on biogeochemical cycling in coastal soils, we evaluated associations among a landscape scale soil salinity gradient, molecular-level soil carbon chemistry, and microbial community assembly processes. Based on observations in related systems we hypothesized systematic shifts along the salinity gradient in organic carbon thermodynamics, biochemical transformation profiles, and heteroatom content. While the thermodynamic favorability of water soluble organic compounds in shallow soils did decrease with increasing salinity (R2=0.78, p<0.00001), this was opposite the expected direction. The number of inferred biochemical transformations and total heteroatom content also decreased with increasing salinity. These patterns indicate lower microbial activity at higher salinity that is potentially constrained by less favorable organic carbon. Furthermore, organic compound classes appeared to be primarily marine/algal derived in the floodplains with greater terrestrial signatures in upland soil. Based on a recent simulation-based study we further hypothesized a relationship between microbial community assembly processes and carbon chemistry. Null modelling revealed particularly strong influences of dispersal limitation over microbial composition, which may be due limited hydrologic connectivity within the clay-rich soils. Signatures of dispersal limitation indicate stochastically assembled microbial communities, which was further reflected in the lack of an association between community assembly processes and carbon chemistry. This suggests a disconnect between microbial composition and carbon biogeochemistry, thereby indicating that the salinity-associated gradient in carbon chemistry was driven by a combination of spatially-structured inputs and salinity-associated metabolic responses of microbial communities that are independent of community composition. Our results collectively indicate that soil carbon chemistry varies systematically with salinity at the landscape scale. This variation has not been accounted for in studies examining impacts of salinity to biogeochemical rates and pools. We propose that impacts of salinity in coastal soil biogeochemistry need to be understood in context of carbon chemistry and microbial physiology, while microbial composition may have less influence.

soil carbon, Coastal Biogeochemistry, microbial co↗

NASA NTRS1987

Algorithmic commonalities in the parallel environment

The ultimate aim of this project was to analyze procedures from substantially different application areas to discover what is either common or peculiar in the process of conversion to the Massively Parallel Processor (MPP). Three areas were identified: molecular dynamic simulation, production systems (rule systems), and various graphics and vision algorithms. To date, only selected graphics procedures have been investigated. They are the most readily available, and produce the most visible results. These include simple polygon patch rendering, raycasting against a constructive solid geometric model, and stochastic or fractal based textured surface algorithms. Only the simplest of conversion strategies, mapping a major loop to the array, has been investigated so far. It is not entirely satisfactory.

Mcanulty, Michael A.↗

DOE OSTI2019

Quasi-Stochastic Approximation and Off-Policy Reinforcement Learning: Preprint

The Robbins-Monro stochastic approximation algorithm is a foundation of many algorithmic frameworks for reinforcement learning and often an efficient approach to solving (or approximating the solution to) complex optimal control problems. In many cases, however, practitioners are unable to apply these techniques because of an inherent high variance. This paper aims to provide a general foundation for 'quasi-stochastic approximation,' in which all of the processes under consideration are deterministic, much like quasi-Monte Carlo for variance reduction in simulation. The variance reduction can be substantial, subject to tuning of pertinent parameters in the algorithm. This paper introduces a new coupling argument to establish the optimal rate of convergence provided the gain is sufficiently large. These results are established for linear models and tested also in nonideal settings. A major application of these general results is a new class of reinforcement learning algorithms for deterministic state space models. In this setting, the main contribution is a class of algorithms for approximating the value function for a given policy, using a different policy designed to introduce exploration.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2014

The RISMC Approach to Perform Advanced PRA Analyses

The existing fleet of nuclear power plants is in the process of extending its lifetime and increasing the power generated from these plants via power uprates. In order to evaluate the impact of these two factors on the safety of the plant, the RISMC Pathway aims to develop simulation-based tools and methods to assess risks for existing nuclear power plants in order to optimize safety. This pathway, by developing new methods, is extending the state-of-the-practice methods that have been traditionally based on logic structures such as Event-Trees and Fault-Trees. These static types of models mimic system response in an inductive and deductive way respectively, yet are restrictive in the ways they can represent spatial and temporal constructs. RISMC analyses are performed by using a combination of thermal-hydraulic codes and a stochastic analysis tool currently under development at the Idaho National Laboratory, i.e. RAVEN. This paper presents a case study in order to show the capabilities of the RISMC methodology to assess impact of power uprate of a boiling water reactor system during a station blackout accident scenario. We employ the system simulator code, RELAP5-3D, coupled with RAVEN which perform the stochastic analysis. Our analysis is in fact performed by: 1) sampling values of a set of parameters from the uncertainty space of interest, 2) simulating the system behavior for that specific set of parameter values and 3) analyzing the set of simulation runs. Results obtained give a detailed investigation of the issues associated with a plant power uprate including the effects of station blackout accident scenarios. We are able to quantify how the timing of specific events was impacted by a higher nominal reactor core power. Such safety insights can provide useful information to the decision makers to perform risk informed margins management.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2015

Non-linear stochastic growth rates and redshift space distortions

The linear growth rate is commonly defined through a simple deterministic relation between the velocity divergence and the matter overdensity in the linear regime. We introduce a formalism that extends this to a non-linear, stochastic relation between θ = ∇ ∙ v(x,t)/aH and δ. This provides a new phenomenological approach that examines the conditional mean <θ|δ>, together with the fluctuations of θ around this mean. We also measure these stochastic components using N-body simulations and find they are non-negative and increase with decreasing scale from ~10 per cent at k < 0.2 h Mpc -1 to 25 per cent at k ~ 0.45 h Mpc -1 at z = 0. Both the stochastic relation and non-linearity are more pronounced for haloes, M ≤ 5 × 10 12 M ⊙ h -1 , compared to the dark matter at z = 0 and 1. Non-linear growth effects manifest themselves as a rotation of the mean <θ|δ> away from the linear theory prediction -f LT δ, where f LT is the linear growth rate. This rotation increases with wavenumber, k, and we show that it can be well-described by second-order Lagrangian perturbation theory (2LPT) fork < 0.1 h Mpc -1 . Furthermore, the stochasticity in the θ – δ relation is not so simply described by 2LPT, and we discuss its impact on measurements of f LT from two-point statistics in redshift space. Furthermore, given that the relationship between δ and θ is stochastic and non-linear, this will have implications for the interpretation and precision of f LT extracted using models which assume a linear, deterministic expression.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Smart thermostat data-driven U.S. residential occupancy schedules and development of a U.S. residential occupancy schedule simulator

Occupancy schedule is one of the key inputs in Building Energy Modeling (BEM) to reflect the interaction between buildings and occupants. Over the past decades, standardized occupancy schedules, developed mainly by engineering rule-of-thumb, have been widely used in BEM due to its simplicity and lack of real measured occupancy data. However, the BEM community has recognized their association with uncertainty and reliability in simulation results from BEM. This study introduces representative occupancy schedules in the U.S. residential buildings, derived from a large smart thermostat dataset and time-series K-means clustering, and an open-source tool to generate a stochastic residential occupancy schedule. Over 90,000 residential occupancy schedules were estimated from the ecobee Donate Your Data dataset. Then, the representative occupancy schedules were identified through clustering. This study further investigated the impacts of three parameters (day, house type, and state) on residential occupancy schedules. Then, a tool, the Residential Occupancy Schedule Simulator (ROSS), is developed using the representative occupancy schedules derived in this study. Details of this tool are presented in this paper. In conclusion, the derived representative occupancy schedules and the ROSS tool can help improve the energy modeling of residential buildings.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainties in Local Intense Precipitation Flood Modeling

In the Task 1 report for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) funded Local Intense Precipitation (LIP) Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment (PFHA) Pilot Study, the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) reviewed hydrologic and hydraulic modeling approaches for estimation of LIP flooding and their implementation in readily available simulation software packages (Prasad and Yuan 2020). NRC’s interest is in developing guidance for performing LIP PFHA at nuclear power plant (NPP) sites. This report describes the work done under Task 2 of the study that focused on describing uncertainties associated with LIP flood modeling. Two main types of uncertainties exist in LIP flood modeling: (1) aleatory uncertainties that arise from the inherent natural variability of the hydrometeorological system and (2) epistemic uncertainties that arise from the analysts’ incomplete knowledge of the hydrometeorological and site configuration. Principal sources for aleatory variability in LIP flood simulations at NPP sites include precipitation (i.e., magnitude, duration, and temporal distribution of LIP events), initial conditions (e.g., soil moisture content, stormwater drainage discharge, surface storage), boundary conditions (e.g., upstream discharge, downstream water surface elevations), and long-term temporal trends (e.g., climate change). This report describes approaches used for estimating the aleatory variability in precipitation including precipitation-frequency analysis, numerical weather prediction, and stochastic weather generation. Data sources that can be used to estimate aleatory variability in initial and boundary conditions are also described. Approaches to include effects of long-term trends like those from climate change into estimation of aleatory variability are summarized. Sources of epistemic uncertainty in LIP flood simulations at NPP sites include process representation (e.g., multiple approaches to represent runoff generation, stormwater drainage, and hydraulic routing), site configurations (e.g., site layout, flow features, status of temporary flood protection, blockage of drains), model resolution, and long-term temporal trends (e.g., known/planned site alterations, land-use changes at and in the vicinity of the site). The report describes alternative process representations (methods and models), particularly those implemented in the LIP flood simulation software packages reviewed in Task 1 report, and lists the associated model parameters. Approaches for estimating model parameters when surface and subsurface water exchanges occur are also described.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2012

MODELING THE EFFECTS OF STAR FORMATION HISTORIES ON H{alpha} AND ULTRAVIOLET FLUXES IN NEARBY DWARF GALAXIES

We consider the effects of non-constant star formation histories (SFHs) on H{alpha} and GALEX far-ultraviolet (FUV) star formation rate (SFR) indicators. Under the assumption of a fully populated Chabrier initial mass function (IMF), we compare the distribution of H{alpha}-to-FUV flux ratios from {approx}1500 simple, periodic model SFHs with observations of 185 galaxies from the Spitzer Local Volume Legacy survey. We find a set of SFH models that are well matched to the data, such that more massive galaxies are best characterized by nearly constant SFHs, while low-mass systems experience burst amplitudes of {approx}30 (i.e., an increase in the SFR by a factor of 30 over the SFR during the inter-burst period), burst durations of tens of Myr, and periods of {approx}250 Myr; these SFHs are broadly consistent with the increased stochastic star formation expected in systems with lower SFRs. We analyze the predicted temporal evolution of galaxy stellar mass, R-band surface brightness, H{alpha}-derived SFR, and blue luminosity, and find that they provide a reasonable match to observed flux distributions. We find that our model SFHs are generally able to reproduce both the observed systematic decline and increased scatter in H{alpha}-to-FUV ratios toward low-mass systems, without invoking other physical mechanisms. We also compare our predictions with those from the Integrated Galactic IMF theory with a constant SFR. We find that while both predict a systematic decline in the observed ratios, only the time variable SFH models are capable of producing the observed population of low-mass galaxies (M{sub *} {approx}< 10{sup 7} M{sub Sun }) with normal H{alpha}-to-FUV ratios. These results demonstrate that a variable IMF alone has difficulty explaining the observed scatter in the H{alpha}-to-FUV ratios. We conclude by considering the limitations of the model SFHs and discuss the use of additional empirical constraints to improve future SFH modeling efforts.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2012

TURBULENT PUMPING OF MAGNETIC FLUX REDUCES SOLAR CYCLE MEMORY AND THUS IMPACTS PREDICTABILITY OF THE SUN'S ACTIVITY

Prediction of the Sun's magnetic activity is important because of its effect on space environment and climate. However, recent efforts to predict the amplitude of the solar cycle have resulted in diverging forecasts with no consensus. Yeates et al. have shown that the dynamical memory of the solar dynamo mechanism governs predictability, and this memory is different for advection- and diffusion-dominated solar convection zones. By utilizing stochastically forced, kinematic dynamo simulations, we demonstrate that the inclusion of downward turbulent pumping of magnetic flux reduces the memory of both advection- and diffusion-dominated solar dynamos to only one cycle; stronger pumping degrades this memory further. Thus, our results reconcile the diverging dynamo-model-based forecasts for the amplitude of solar cycle 24. We conclude that reliable predictions for the maximum of solar activity can be made only at the preceding minimum-allowing about five years of advance planning for space weather. For more accurate predictions, sequential data assimilation would be necessary in forecasting models to account for the Sun's short memory.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Gravitational waves from fully general relativistic oscillon preheating

As long-lived quasisolitons from the fragmentation of a scalar condensate, oscillons may dominate the preheating era after inflation. During this period, stochastic gravitational waves can also be generated. Here we quantify the gravitational-wave production in this period with simulations accounting for full general relativity to capture all possible nonperturbative effects. We compute the gravitational-wave spectra across a range of choices of the oscillon preheating models and compare our results to a conventional perturbative approach on a Friedmann-Lemaître-Robertson-Walker (FLRW) background. We clarify the gauge ambiguities in computing induced gravitational waves from scenarios where dense nonperturbative objects such as oscillons are being formed. In particular, we find that the synchronous gauge tends to contain large artificial enhancements in the gravitational-wave spectrum due to gauge modes if gravity plays an important role in the formation of the oscillons, while other gauge choices, such as the radiation gauge or a suitably chosen “1+log” gauge, can efficiently reduce the contributions of gauge modes. The full general-relativistic simulations indicate that gravitational-wave spectra obtained from the perturbative approach on the FLRW background are fairly accurate, except when oscillon formation induces strong gravitational effects, for which case there can be an order unity enhancement.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

NASA NTRS2005

DNA Damage by Ionizing Radiation: Tandem Double Lesions by Charged Particles

Oxidative damages by ionizing radiation are the source of radiation-induced carcinogenesis, damage to the central nervous system, lowering of the immune response, as well as other radiation-induced damages to human health. Monte Carlo track simulations and kinetic modeling of radiation damages to the DNA employ available molecular and cellular data to simulate the biological effect of high and low LET radiation io the DNA. While the simulations predict single and double strand breaks and base damages, so far all complex lesions are the result of stochastic coincidence from independent processes. Tandem double lesions have not yet been taken into account. Unlike the standard double lesions that are produced by two separate attacks by charged particles or radicals, tandem double lesions are produced by one single attack. The standard double lesions dominate at the high dosage regime. On the other hand, tandem double lesions do not depend on stochastic coincidences and become important at the low dosage regime of particular interest to NASA. Tandem double lesions by hydroxyl radical attack of guanine in isolated DNA have been reported at a dosage of radiation as low as 10 Gy. The formation of two tandem base lesions was found to be linear with the applied doses, a characteristic of tandem lesions. However, tandem double lesions from attack by a charged particle have not been reported.

Huo, Winifred M.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Uncertainty Error Modeling for Non-Linear State Estimation With Unsynchronized SCADA and µPMU Measurements

Distribution systems of the future smart grid require enhancements to the reliability of distribution system state estimation (DSSE) in the face of low measurement redundancy, unsynchronized measurements, and dynamic load profiles. Micro phasor measurement units (µPMUs) facilitate co-synchronized measurements with high granularity, albeit at an often prohibitively expensive installation cost. Supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) measurements can supplement µPMU data, although they are received at a slower sampling rate. Further complicating matters is the uncertainty associated with load dynamics and unsynchronized measurements–not only are the SCADA and µPMU measurements not synchronized with each other, but the SCADA measurements themselves are received at different time intervals with respect to one another. This paper proposes a non-linear state estimation framework which models dynamic load uncertainty error by updating the variances of the unsynchronized measurements, leading to a time-varying system of weights in the weighted least squares state estimator. Case studies are performed on the 33-Bus Distribution System in MATPOWER, using Ornstein–Uhlenbeck stochastic processes to simulate dynamic load conditions.

Cooper, Austin↗

DOE OSTI2014

Stochastic modeling of the Fermi/LAT γ-ray blazar variability

We study the γ-ray variability of 13 blazars observed with the Fermi/Large Area Telescope (LAT). These blazars have the most complete light curves collected during the first four years of the Fermi sky survey. We model them with the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) process or a mixture of the OU processes. The OU process has power spectral density (PSD) proportional to 1/f {sup α} with α changing at a characteristic timescale, τ{sub 0}, from 0 (τ >> τ{sub 0}) to 2 (τ << τ{sub 0}). The PSD of the mixed OU process has two characteristic timescales and an additional intermediate region with 0 < α < 2. We show that the OU model provides a good description of the Fermi/LAT light curves of three blazars in our sample. For the first time, we constrain a characteristic γ-ray timescale of variability in two BL Lac sources, 3C 66A and PKS 2155-304 (τ{sub 0} ≅ 25 days and τ{sub 0} ≅ 43 days, respectively, in the observer's frame), which are longer than the soft X-ray timescales detected in blazars and Seyfert galaxies. We find that the mixed OU process approximates the light curves of the remaining 10 blazars better than the OU process. We derive limits on their long and short characteristic timescales, and infer that their Fermi/LAT PSD resemble power-law functions. We constrain the PSD slopes for all but one source in the sample. We find hints for sub-hour Fermi/LAT variability in four flat spectrum radio quasars. We discuss the implications of our results for theoretical models of blazar variability.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2014

Dark-matter halo assembly bias: Environmental dependence in the non-Markovian excursion-set theory

In the standard excursion-set model for the growth of structure, the statistical properties of halos are governed by the halo mass and are independent of the larger-scale environment in which the halos reside. Numerical simulations, however, have found the spatial distributions of halos to depend not only on their mass but also on the details of their assembly history and environment. Here we present a theoretical framework for incorporating this 'assembly bias' into the excursion-set model. Our derivations are based on modifications of the path-integral approach of Maggiore and Riotto that models halo formation as a non-Markovian random-walk process. The perturbed density field is assumed to evolve stochastically with the smoothing scale and exhibits correlated walks in the presence of a density barrier. We write down conditional probabilities for multiple barrier crossings and derive from them analytic expressions for descendant and progenitor halo mass functions and halo merger rates as a function of both halo mass and the linear overdensity δ {sub e} of the larger-scale environment of the halo. Our results predict a higher halo merger rate and higher progenitor halo mass function in regions of higher overdensity, consistent with the behavior seen in N-body simulations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Modeling Streamflow and Sediment Transport Under Current and Future Climates at the West Valley Site - 20231

Performance Assessment models often require inputs representing specific hydrologic processes such as streamflow and sediment flux. This paper details the development of a process-level hydrologic model and its use in a Probabilistic Performance Assessment (PPA) system-level model for the West Valley Site in western New York. For this PPA model, a watershed model was developed using SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) and used to evaluate water and sediment fluxes in nearby streams draining the Site. A particular challenge of probabilistic modeling over long periods of time is scaling parameters appropriately so that outcomes are not grossly over- or underestimated. This challenge is especially important when the spatial and temporal scales of process and system level models differ. In this instance, the SWAT watershed model and GoldSim PPA model have similar spatial scales of stream reaches and sub-catchments within a single watershed (approximately hundreds to tens of thousands of square meters, but the temporal scales differ considerably. The SWAT model calculates streamflow and sediment transport rates at the daily scale, while the PPA model requires long-term average values that are applied over hundreds to thousands of year-long periods. As such, distributions of daily climatic parameters such as average precipitation rate, temperature, wind speed, and relative humidity were developed to force a transient SWAT model that captures the dynamic behavior of the watershed in response to daily changes in the weather. Output from the model, which includes stream flow (m{sup 3}/y) and sediment transport rate (Mg/y) is then averaged over a 100-year period as an approximation for the long-term average values which can be applied in GoldSim. A single SWAT model was run 5000 times with varying climatic inputs and deterministic soil, land use, and elevation data, and the range of outputs were compiled into a distribution which can be implemented stochastically into the PPA Model. Additionally, this paper includes a high-level discussion of how changes in future climate affect weather input distributions, and a summary of how those changes in weather affect the outcomes from the SWAT model and the inputs into the PPA model. In this analysis, future climate distributions were developed based on climate research documenting the expected changes to precipitation and temperature in western New York. The 5,000 SWAT simulations were then repeated with these future climate distributions, and the resulting output was implemented into the PPA Model as hydrologic conditions under a future climate. In the current version of the PPA Model, hydrologic parameters change linearly from the 'current climate' conditions to the 'future climate' conditions over a period of 100 years, after which they remain constant. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2020

Modern Monte Carlo methods for efficient uncertainty quantification and propagation: A survey

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) includes the characterization, integration, and propagation of uncertainties that result from stochastic variations and a lack of knowledge or data in the natural world. Monte Carlo (MC) method is a sampling-based approach that has widely used for quantification and propagation of uncertainties. However, the standard MC method is often time-consuming if the simulation-based model is computationally intensive. This article gives an overview of modern MC methods to address the existing challenges of the standard MC in the context of UQ. Specifically, multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) extending the concept of control variates achieves a significant reduction of the computational cost by performing most evaluations with low accuracy and corresponding low cost, and relatively few evaluations at high accuracy and corresponding high cost. Multifidelity Monte Carlo (MFMC) accelerates the convergence of standard Monte Carlo by generalizing the control variates with different models having varying fidelities and varying computational costs. Multimodel Monte Carlo method (MMMC), having a different setting of MLMC and MFMC, aims to address the issue of UQ and propagation when data for characterizing probability distributions are limited. Multimodel inference combined with importance sampling is proposed for quantifying and efficiently propagating the uncertainties resulting from small data sets. All of these three modern MC methods achieve a significant improvement of computational efficiency for probabilistic UQ, particularly uncertainty propagation. Finally, an algorithm summary and the corresponding code implementation are provided for each of the modern MC methods. The extension and application of these methods are discussed in detail.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗