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DOE OSTI2021

A Circularity Assessment for Silicon Solar Panels Based on Dynamic Material Flow Analysis: Preprint

Solar photovoltaics (PV) are the fastest growing renewable energy technology for clean, inexpensive, and sustainable electricity generation. Along with numerous technical roadmaps to improve system cost, performance and reliability, the PV industry should also plan to handle large volumes of silicon panel waste, which is initially estimated to be ~13 million metric tons (MT) by 2050 in the U.S. alone. Understanding the magnitude of material needs and how material flows throughout the PV panel life cycle could respond to design, operational and different end-of-life (EOL) circular pathways will help transition into a circular, resource-conserving economy. Herein, we introduce a dynamic material flow analysis (DMFA) framework based on electricity generation to quantify time-series stocks and flows of bulk PV materials (e.g., solar glass and aluminum frames) throughout the life cycles of utility-scale silicon PV systems in the U.S. in the period 2000-2100. We apply the model to a range of scenarios to understand how material demands depend on selected PV-related parameters, different material circularity strategies, and recent module design trends (e.g., bifacial, frameless). We found that float glass and aluminum in PV installations would likely reach 100 million MT and 12 million MT by 2100, respectively, in the baseline scenario. The most influential parameters for PV installation and subsequent waste reduction are found to be module lifetime, module efficiency, annual degradation, and material reduction. Module recycling and component remanufacturing were found to be the most effective material circularity strategies for waste minimization. Panel reuse has negligible savings on waste under current module efficiencies compared to replacements with newer generations with higher efficiency. Ongoing trends to produce larger power frameless modules could save 10 million MT of glass and ~9 million MT of aluminum. Our results enable advanced planning for future materials needs and provide insight into potential opportunities to minimize waste.

circular economy↗

DOE OSTI2023

Emissions minimization on road networks via Generic Second Order Models

In this paper we consider the problem of estimating emissions due to vehicular traffic on complex networks, and minimizing their effect by regulating traffic at junctions. For the traffic evolution, we consider a Generic Second Order Model, which encompasses the majority of two-equations (i.e., second-order) models available in the literature, and extend it to road networks with merge and diverge junctions. The dynamics on the whole network is determined by selecting a solution to the Riemann Problems at junctions, i.e., the Cauchy problems with constant initial data on each incident road. The latter are solved by assuming the maximization of the flow and assigning a traffic distribution coefficient for outgoing roads of diverges, and a priority rule for incoming roads of merges. A general emission model is considered and its parameters are tuned to the $ {\mathrm{NO_{x}}} $ emission rate. The minimization of emissions is then formulated in terms of the traffic distribution and priority parameters, taking into account travel times. A comparison is provided between roundabouts with optimized parameters and traffic lights, which correspond to time-varying traffic priorities. Our approach can be adapted to manage traffic in complex networks in order to reduce emissions while keeping travel time at acceptable levels.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

NASA NTRS1991

Mixed convective/dynamic roll vortices and their effects on initial wind and temperature profiles

The onset and development of both dynamically and convectively forced boundary layer rolls are studied with linear and nonlinear analyses of a truncated spectral model of shallow Boussinesq flow. Emphasis is given here on the energetics of the dominant roll modes, on the magnitudes of the roll-induced modifications of the initial basic state wind and temperature profiles, and on the sensitivity of the linear stability results to the use of modified profiles as basic states. It is demonstrated that the roll circulations can produce substantial changes to the cross-roll component of the initial wind profile and that significant changes in orientation angle estimates can result from use of a roll-modified profile in the stability analysis. These results demonstrate that roll contributions must be removed from observed background wind profiles before using them to investigate the mechanisms underlying actual secondary flows in the boundary layer. The model is developed quite generally to accept arbitrary basic state wind profiles as dynamic forcing. An Ekman profile is chosen here merely to provide a means for easy comparison with other theoretical boundary layer studies; the ultimate application of the model is to study observed boundary layer profiles. Results of the analytic stability analysis are validated by comparing them with results from a larger linear model. For an appropriate Ekman depth, a complete set of transition curves is given in forcing parameter space for roll modes driven both thermally and dynamically. Preferred orientation angles, horizontal wavelengths and propagation frequencies, as well as energetics and wind profile modifications, are all shown to agree rather well with results from studies on Ekman layers as well as with studies on near-neutral and convective atmospheric boundary layers.

Haack, Tracy↗

NASA NTRS1986

Estimation of high temperature low cycle fatigue on the basis of inelastic strain and strainrate

Fatigue life at elevated temperature can be predicted by introducing parametric values obtained from monotonic constitutive behavior into the Universal-Slopes Equation. For directionally solidified MAR-M200+HF at 975 C, these parameters are the maximum stress achievable under entirely plastic (time-independent) and purely creep (time-dependent) conditions and the corresponding inelastic strains, as well as the elastic modulus. For materials which exhibit plasticity/creep interaction, two more pairs of monotonic parameters must be evaluated for fatigue life prediction. This life-prediction method based on the Universal-Slopes Equation, resulted from a constitutive model characterizing monotonic and cyclic data as inelastic strainrate as a function of inelastic strain. Characterizing monotonic data is this way, permitted distinction between different material responses such as strain-hardening, strain-softening, and dynamic recovery effects. Understanding and defining the region of influence of each of these effects facilitated formulation of the constitutive model in relation to the mechanical and microstructural processes occurring in the material under cyclic loading.

Berkovits, A.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Spatial Predictive Modeling and Remote Sensing of Land Use Change in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

This project was focused on modeling the processes by which increasing demand for developed land uses, brought about by changes in the regional economy and the socio-demographics of the region, are translated into a changing spatial pattern of land use. Our study focused on a portion of the Chesapeake Bay Watershed where the spatial patterns of sprawl represent a set of conditions generally prevalent in much of the U.S. Working in the region permitted us access to (i) a time-series of multi-scale and multi-temporal (including historical) satellite imagery and (ii) an established network of collaborating partners and agencies willing to share resources and to utilize developed techniques and model results. In addition, a unique parcel-level tax assessment database and linked parcel boundary maps exists for two counties in the Maryland portion of this region that made it possible to establish a historical cross-section time-series database of parcel level development decisions. Scenario analyses of future land use dynamics provided critical quantitative insight into the impact of alternative land management and policy decisions. These also have been specifically aimed at addressing growth control policies aimed at curbing exurban (sprawl) development. Our initial technical approach included three components: (i) spatial econometric modeling of the development decision, (ii) remote sensing of suburban change and residential land use density, including comparisons of past change from Landsat analyses and more traditional sources, and (iii) linkages between the two through variable initialization and supplementation of parcel level data. To these we added a fourth component, (iv) cellular automata modeling of urbanization, which proved to be a valuable addition to the project. This project has generated both remote sensing and spatially explicit socio-economic data to estimate and calibrate the parameters for two different types of land use change models and has undertaken analyses of these models. One (the CA model) is driven largely by observations on past patterns of land use change, while the other (the EC model) is driven by mechanisms of the land use change decision at the parcel level. Our project may be the first serious attempt at developing both types of models for the same area, using as much common data as possible. We have identified the strengths and weaknesses of the two approaches and plan to continue to revise each model in the light of new data and new lessons learned through continued collaboration. Questions, approaches, findings, publication and presentation lists concerning the research are also presented.

Goetz, Scott J.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Cislunar Near Rectilinear Halo Orbit for Human Space Exploration

In order to conduct sustained human exploration beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO), spacecraft systems are designed to operate in a series of missions of increasing complexity. Regardless of the destination, Moon, Mars, asteroids or beyond, there is a substantial set of common objectives that must be met. Many orbit characterization studies have endeavored to evaluate the potential locations in cislunar space that are favorable for meeting common human exploration objectives in a stepwise approach. Multiple studies, by both NASA and other international space agencies, have indicated that Earth-‐moon libration point orbits are attractive candidates for staging operations in the proving ground and beyond. In particular, the Near Rectilinear Orbit (NRO) has been demonstrated to meet multi-‐mission and multi-‐destination architectural constraints. However, a human mission to a selected NRO presents a variety of new challenges for mission planning. While a growing number of robotic missions have completed successful operations to various specific libration point orbits, human missions have never been conducted to orbits of this class. Human missions have unique challenges that differ significantly from robotic missions, including a lower tolerance for mission risk and additional operational constraints that are associated only with human spacecraft. In addition, neither robotic nor human missions have been operated in the NRO regime specifically, and NROs exhibit dynamical characteristics that can differ significantly as compared to other halo orbits. Finally, multi-‐body orbits, such as libration point orbits, are identified to exist in a simplified orbit model known as the Circular Restricted Three Body Problem (CRTBP) and must then be re-‐solved in the full ephemeris model. As a result, the behavior of multi-‐body orbits cannot be effectively characterized within the classical two-‐body orbit dynamics framework more familiar to the human spaceflight community. In fact, a given NRO is not identified by a set of Keplerian orbit parameters, and a valid epoch specific state vector must be first obtained from a multi-body dynamical model. In this paper, the significant performance and operational challenges of conducting human missions to the NRO are evaluated. First, a systematic process for generating full ephemeris based ballistic NROs of various families is outlined to demonstrate the relative ease in which a multi-‐revolution orbit can be found for any epoch and for various orbit geometries. In the Earth-‐Moon system, NROs, which are halo orbits with close passage over a lunar pole, can exist with respect to libration point 1 (L1) or libration point 2 (L2) and are either from a North or South family orbit class with respect to the ecliptic. Second, the ability to maintain the orbit over the lifetime of a habitat mission by applying a reliable station-keeping strategy is investigated. The NRO, while similar to the quasi-‐halo orbits that the Artemis mission flew, requires an updated station keeping strategy. This is due to several dynamical differences such as the increased relative stability of the NRO compared to other halo orbits and the close passage over the lunar surface as shown in Figure 1. Multiple station-keeping strategies are being investigated to ensure a human spacecraft remains on a predictable path. As the NRO is not described in simple two-‐body parameters, analysis must determine the best strategy for targeting a reference NRO as well as how closely a future state should be constrained. In addition, costs will be minimized by determining maneuver directionality based on an identified pattern in the optimal station-keeping solutions or an analytically derived relationship. The candidate station-keeping algorithm must be stable and robust to environmental and vehicle uncertainties as well to navigation estimation and flight control execution errors. To that end, navigation accuracies, the impact on the station-keeping execution errors as well as other vehicle uncertainties need to be assessed. Starting with Orion, current navigation accuracies are evaluated and then navigation requirements are derived assuming a desired station-keeping propellant budget. Third, the performance requirements to and from the NRO are evaluated. Important parameters for developing expected propellant costs include epoch of operation, size and type of NRO, Earth departure and return constraints, as well as abort or early-‐return capability. Finally, rendezvous and proximity operations are vital aspects of multi-‐mission human exploration endeavors. The ability to conduct rendezvous and the associated propellant costs are assessed as well as the impacts of various profile assumptions including the location within the NRO the rendezvous is performed. The results of these studies will influence plans for international cooperation on both nearer term proving ground missions and beyond.

Whitley, Ryan↗

DOE OSTI2020

Active- and transfer-learning applied to microscale-macroscale coupling to simulate viscoelastic flows

Active- and transfer-learning are applied to microscale dynamics of polymer flows for the multiscale discovery of effective constitutive approximations required in viscoelastic flow simulation. The result is macroscopic rheology directly connected to a microstructural model. Micro and macroscale simulations are adaptively coupled by means of Gaussian process regression (GPR) to run the expensive microscale computations only as necessary. This multiscale method is demonstrated with flows of a polymer solution as a model system. At the microscale level dissipative particle dynamics (DPD) is employed to model the fluid as a suspension of bead-spring micro-structures subjected to steady shear flow. The results yield the non-Newtonian viscosity and the first normal stress difference at strain rates as training data used in a GPR model. DPD parameters are calibrated with respect to experimental data for a real polymer solution. Compliance with these data requires adjustment of the DPD model's cutoff radius, which then becomes a function of the second invariant of the strain rate tensor. The FENE-P model is chosen for the macroscale description using the spectral element method (SEM) to simulate channel flow and flow past a circular cylinder. The DPD results at the lowest possible shear strain rate yield an estimate of the zero-shear rate viscosity, which allows the initiation of the macroscale flow by SEM as a Newtonian fluid. The resulting strain-rate field is surveyed to determine additional shear strain rate sampling points for the DPD system. This new information allows an initial fitting of parameters of the constitutive equation followed by new SEM simulations at the macroscale. Additionally, guided by active-learning GPR to select new sampling points, this process continues until convergence is achieved. The effectiveness of this new simulation paradigm for viscoelastic flows is tested with different macroscale operating conditions. The effective closure learned in the channel simulation is then transferred directly to the flow past a circular cylinder at low Reynolds number, where the results show that only two additional DPD simulations are required to achieve a satisfactory constitutive model. With an increase of the Reynolds number, the active-learning scheme automatically detects the inaccuracy of the learned constitutive model, and initiates additional DPD simulations for the extra data needed to once again close the microscale-macroscale coupled system. This new paradigm of active- and transfer-learning for multiscale modeling is readily applicable to other microscale-macroscale coupled simulations of complex fluids and other materials. Furthermore, the coupling between microscale and macroscale solvers can be seamlessly implemented with our open source multiscale universal interface (MUI) library.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2021

Estimating the color lifetime of energetic quarks

Using a simple geometric framework with a realistic nuclear density distribution, we fit published HERMES data to determine fundamental properties of hadronization using the nuclear medium as a spatial analyzer. Our approach uses a fit to the transverse momentum broadening observable and the hadronic multiplicity ratio; the simultaneous fit to two different observables strongly constrains the outcome. Using the known sizes of the target nuclei, we extract the color lifetime, finding a z h -dependent range of values from 2 to 8 fm/c for these data. We also extract estimates for the qˆ transport coefficient characterizing the strength of the interaction between the quark and the cold nuclear medium, finding an average value of 0.035±0.011 GeV 2 /fm. With a three-parameter model we obtain satisfactory fits to the data with a goodness-of-fit parameter χ 2 /dof of 1.1 or less. In a secondary fit of the results from that model we independently find a value for the Lund String Model string tension of 1.00±0.05 GeV/fm. We evaluated the sensitivity for extracting quark energy loss and effective in-medium hadronic cross sections using four-parameter variants of the model, finding large uncertainties in both cases. Our results suggest that hadronic interaction of forming hadrons in the nuclear medium is the primary dynamical cause of meson attenuation in the HERMES data, with quark energy loss playing a more minor role.

Electron-ion collider↗

DOE OSTI2017

Scaling from gauge and scalar radiation in Abelian-Higgs string networks

In this work, we investigate cosmic string networks in the Abelian Higgs model using data from a campaign of large-scale numerical simulations on lattices of up to 409 6 3 grid points. We observe scaling or self-similarity of the networks over a wide range of scales and estimate the asymptotic values of the mean string separation in horizon length units ξ ˙ and of the mean square string velocity v ¯ 2 in the continuum and large time limits. The scaling occurs because the strings lose energy into classical radiation of the scalar and gauge fields of the Abelian Higgs model. We quantify the energy loss with a dimensionless radiative efficiency parameter and show that it does not vary significantly with lattice spacing or string separation. This implies that the radiative energy loss underlying the scaling behavior is not a lattice artifact, and justifies the extrapolation of measured network properties to large times for computations of cosmological perturbations. We also show that the core growth method, which increases the defect core width with time to extend the dynamic range of simulations, does not introduce significant systematic error. We compare ξ ˙ and v ¯ 2 to values measured in simulations using the Nambu-Goto approximation, finding that the latter underestimate the mean string separation by about 25%, and overestimate v ¯ 2 by about 10%. The scaling of the string separation implies that string loops decay by the emission of massive radiation within a Hubble time in field theory simulations, in contrast to the Nambu-Goto scenario which neglects this energy loss mechanism. String loops surviving for only one Hubble time emit much less gravitational radiation than in the Nambu-Goto scenario and are consequently subject to much weaker gravitational wave constraints on their tension.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Simulating organic aerosol in Delhi with WRF-Chem using the volatility-basis-set approach: exploring model uncertainty with a Gaussian process emulator

The nature and origin of organic aerosol in the atmosphere remain unclear. The gas–particle partitioning of semi-volatile organic compounds (SVOCs) that constitute primary organic aerosols (POAs) and the multigenerational chemical aging of SVOCs are particularly poorly understood. The volatility basis set (VBS) approach, implemented in air quality models such as WRF-Chem (Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry), can be a useful tool to describe emissions of POA and its chemical evolution. However, the evaluation of model uncertainty and the optimal model parameterization may be expensive to probe using only WRF-Chem simulations. Gaussian process emulators, trained on simulations from relatively few WRF-Chem simulations, are capable of reproducing model results and estimating the sources of model uncertainty within a defined range of model parameters. In this study, a WRF-Chem VBS parameterization is proposed; we then generate a perturbed parameter ensemble of 111 model runs, perturbing 10 parameters of the WRF-Chem model relating to organic aerosol emissions and the VBS oxidation reactions. This allowed us to cover the model's uncertainty space and to compare outputs from each run to aerosol mass spectrometer observations of organic aerosol concentrations and O:C ratios measured in New Delhi, India. The simulations spanned the organic aerosol concentrations measured with the aerosol mass spectrometer (AMS). However, they also highlighted potential structural errors in the model that may be related to unsuitable diurnal cycles in the emissions and/or failure to adequately represent the dynamics of the planetary boundary layer. While the structural errors prevented us from clearly identifying an optimized VBS approach in WRF-Chem, we were able to apply the emulator in the following two periods: the full period (1–29 May) and a subperiod period of 14:00–16:00 h LT (local time) on 1–29 May. The combination of emulator analysis and model evaluation metrics allowed us to identify plausible parameter combinations for the analyzed periods. We demonstrate that the methodology presented in this study can be used to determine the model uncertainty and to identify the appropriate parameter combination for the VBS approach and hence to provide valuable information to improve our understanding of OA production.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1994

Dynamics of massive black holes as a possible candidate of Galactic dark matter

If the dark halo of the Galaxy is comprised of massive black holes (MBHs), then those within approximately 1 kpc will spiral to the center, where they will interact with one another, forming binaries which contract, owing to further dynamical friction, and then possibly merge to become more massive objects by emission of gravitational radiation. If successive mergers would invariably lead, as has been proposed by various authors, to the formation of a very massive nucleus of 10(exp 8) solar mass, then the idea of MBHs as a dark matter candidate could be excluded on observational grounds, since the observed limit (or value) for a Galactic central black hole is approximately 10(exp 6.5) solar mass. But, if successive mergers are delayed or prevented by other processes, such as the gravitational slingshot or rocket effect of gravitational radiation, then a large mass accumulation will not occur. In order to resolve this issue, we perform detailed N-body simulations using a modfied Aarseth code to explore the dynamical behavior of the MBHs, and we find that for a 'best estimate' model of the Galaxy a runaway does not occur. The code treates the MBHs as subject to the primary gravitational forces of one another and to the smooth stellar distribution, as well as the secondary perturbations in their orbits due to another and to the smooth stellar distribution, as well as the secondary perturbations in their orbits due to dynamical friction and gravitational radiation. Instead of a runaway, three-body interactions between hard binaries and single MBHs eject massive objects before accumulation of more than a few units, so that typically the center will contain zero, one, or two MBHs. We study how the situation depends in detail on the mass per MBH, the rotation of the halo, the mass distribution within the Galaxy, and other parameters. A runaway will most sensitively depend on the ratio of initial (spheroid/halo) central mass densities and secondarily on the typical values for the mass per MBH, with the rough dividing line, using Galactic parameters, being M(sub BH) less than or = 10(exp 6.5) solar mass. Using parameters from Lacey & Ostriker (1985) and our most accurate model for Galaxy, no runaway occurs.

Xu, Guohong↗

NASA NTRS2014

3D-HST + CANDELS: the Evolution of the Galaxy Size-mass Distribution Since Z=3

Spectroscopic and photometric redshifts, stellar mass estimates, and rest-frame colors from the 3D-HST survey are combined with structural parameter measurements from CANDELS imaging to determine the galaxy size-mass distribution over the redshift (z) range 0 < z < 3. Separating early- and late-type galaxies on the basis of star-formation activity, we confirm that early-type galaxies are on average smaller than late-type galaxies at all redshifts, and find a significantly different rate of average size evolution at fixed galaxy mass, with fast evolution for the early-type population, effective radius is in proportion to (1 + z) (sup −1.48), and moderate evolution for the late-type population, effective radius is in proportion to (1 + z) (sup −0.75). The large sample size and dynamic range in both galaxy mass and redshift, in combination with the high fidelity of our measurements due to the extensive use of spectroscopic data, not only fortify previous results, but also enable us to probe beyond simple average galaxy size measurements. At all redshifts the slope of the size-mass relation is shallow, effective radius in proportion to mass of a black hole (sup 0.22), for late-type galaxies with stellar mass > 3 x 10 (sup 9) solar masses, and steep, effective radius in proportion to mass of a black hole (sup 0.75), for early-type galaxies with stellar mass > 2 x 10 (sup 10) solar masses. The intrinsic scatter is approximately or less than 0.2 decimal exponents for all galaxy types and redshifts. For late-type galaxies, the logarithmic size distribution is not symmetric, but skewed toward small sizes: at all redshifts and masses a tail of small late-type galaxies exists that overlaps in size with the early-type galaxy population. The number density of massive (approximately 10 (sup 11) solar masses), compact (effective radius less than 2 kiloparsecs) early-type galaxies increases from z = 3 to z = 1.5 − 2 and then strongly decreases at later cosmic times.

EVOLUTION↗

NASA NTRS2023

Testing theories of Gravitation with the Interstellar Probe Radio Experiment

General Relativity (GR) will soon celebrate its 110th birthday, holding up against all experimental enquiry. Nonetheless, unification theories attempting to quantize gravity, such as string theory, are gaining footing. These hypothesize additional scalar, vector, and tensor long-range fields that couple to matter (Will, 2014), introducing violations to GR. Although such violations have never been detected, it is likely that GR will not be the ultimate theory of gravity. What is certain is that gravity tests are alive and well, pushing the validity of GR to new scales and accuracies, or -potentially- suggesting alternative routes for new physics. Building upon the legacy of Voyager and Pioneer missions, which demonstrated the capability to survive in the outer reaches of the solar system, the Interstellar Probe mission concept (McNutt et al., 2022) aims to characterise our heliosphere through state-of-the-art instrumentation, opening new frontiers also for GR testing. In this work, we investigate the possibility of constraining the Nordtvedt parameter η and the mass of the graviton via the Compton wavelength λc, by simulating the processing of 10 years of radiometric data from the Interstellar Probe. Station calibration and clock synchronisation, as well as limiting spacecraft precession manoeuvres are highlighted as key strategies for obtaining high-quality estimates. In the most favourable scenario, η can be constrained to less than 1.5 · 10 -5 , reducing the uncertainty obtained via Lunar Laser Ranging (Hofmann and Müller, 2018), and a lower bound of 1.4 ‧ 10 14 km is set for λc, improving the estimates obtained from planetary ephemerides (Bernus et al., 2020) and gravitational wave detection (Abbott et al., Jun 2021). Extending ranging measurement acquisition to 20 years improves the results tenfold. This experiment interrogates fundamental physics from a unique dynamical setting, investigating possible violations of the Equivalence Principle (EP) underlying GR.

general relativity↗

DOE OSTI2017

Investigating the Relativistic Motion of the Stars Near the Supermassive Black Hole in the Galactic Center

The S-star cluster in the Galactic center allows us to study the physics close to a supermassive black hole, including distinctive dynamical tests of general relativity. Our best estimates for the mass of and the distance to Sgr A* using the three stars with the shortest period (S2, S38, and S55/S0-102) and Newtonian models are M {sub BH} = (4.15 ± 0.13 ± 0.57) × 10{sup 6} M {sub ⊙} and R {sub 0} = 8.19 ± 0.11 ± 0.34 kpc. Additionally, we aim at a new and practical method to investigate the relativistic orbits of stars in the gravitational field near Sgr A*. We use a first-order post-Newtonian approximation to calculate the stellar orbits with a broad range of periapse distance r {sub p} . We present a method that employs the changes in orbital elements derived from elliptical fits to different sections of the orbit. These changes are correlated with the relativistic parameter defined as ϒ ≡ r {sub s} / r {sub p} (with r {sub s} being the Schwarzschild radius) and can be used to derive ϒ from observational data. For S2 we find a value of ϒ = 0.00088 ± 0.00080, which is consistent, within the uncertainty, with the expected value of ϒ = 0.00065 derived from M {sub BH} and the orbit of S2. We argue that the derived quantity is unlikely to be dominated by perturbing influences such as noise on the derived stellar positions, field rotation, and drifts in black hole mass.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2018

TPSAS-NF1676L-32008-DND

Thermosphere climate is controlled in part by cooling to space driven by infrared radiation, primarily from nitric oxide (NO, 5.3μm) and carbon dioxide (CO2, 15μm). The Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) instrument on the Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics (TIMED) satellite has been measuring the vertical distribution of infrared radiation emitted by these species (and others) for nearly 17 years-–more than 6000 days. This data set spans much of Solar Cycle (SC) 23 and all of SC 24 to date. A thermosphere climate index (TCI) has been derived by noting the correlation between 60-day running averages of NO cooling power and three long-term solar and geomagnetic indexes: F10.7 cm solar radio flux, the Ap index of geoeffective solar activity, and the disturbance storm time (Dst) index. A multiple linear regression (MLR) fit of these three parameters to the NO cooling rate over the SABER mission has a better than 0.98 correlation. Applying the MLR constant and coefficients from that fit provides a good estimate of thermospheric cooling back to 1947, the extent of the data available for all three indexes. We examined the percentile distribution of the TCI in quintiles over the five complete solar cycles, and assigned.

Linda Hunt↗

DOE OSTI2023

DUET - Distribution of Understory using Elliptical Transport: A mechanistic model of leaf litter and herbaceous spatial distribution based on tree canopy structure

Heterogeneity in surface fuels produced by overstory trees and understory vegetation is a major driver of fire behavior and ecosystem dynamics. Previous attempts at predicting tree leaf and needle litter accumulation over time have been constrained in scope to probabilistic models that consider a limited number of key factors influencing tree litter dispersal patterns and decomposition processes. Here we present a mechanistic model for estimating variation in surface fuels called the Distribution of Understory using Elliptical Transport (DUET). DUET uses a pre-generated voxelated canopy array and distributes the leaf litter from the trees in an elliptical shape based on tree species characteristics, wind data, and location-specific features. DUET then calculates grass growth between trees and around the litter patterns and sets moisture levels based on relative humidity. In this study, we use DUET to simulate spatial distributions of leaf litter and illustrate model sensitivity to several parameters, providing inputs for testing fuel spatial heterogeneity impacts on fire behavior using process-based models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

CONSTRAINT-INDEPENDENT CONSTANT CTOA DETERMINATION FOR DUCTILE STABLE CRACK GROWTH

Crack tip opening angle (CTOA) has been used as a reliable fracture toughness parameter for decades to characterize stable ductile crack growth for thin-walled aerospace structures in the low-constraint conditions. Recently, the CTOA parameter was also applied to the pipeline industry, and a CTOA test standard ASTM E3039 was thus developed for testing a critical constant CTOA. Research showed that the constant CTOA can reasonably describe fracture toughness required to arrest a dynamic crack propagation for a modern gas pipeline. However, the CTOA fracture criterion requires constraint-independent CTOA toughness against stable ductile crack growth. ASTM E3039 recommends a drop weight tearing test (DWTT) specimen for CTOA testing. Since a shallow crack is used, DWTT measured CTOA may depend on constraint level at the crack tip. To understand if it is the case, this paper evaluates the critical CTOA for a set of fracture toughness tests on single edge notched bend (SENB) specimens with shallow and deep cracks based on four CTOA estimation models. In which, the Ln(P)-LLD linear fit model is similar to that used by ASTM E3039 in the CTOA calculation. Fracture test data for X80 pipeline steel and HY80 structural steel are considered in the CTOA evaluation. The results show that the four CTOA models can determine a crack size-independent constant CTOA over stable ductile crack growth for the SENB specimens. As a result, CTOA determined by ASTM E3039 is constraintindependent and transferable to use for an actual crack propagating in a gas pipeline.

Zhu, Xian-Kui↗

NASA NTRS1999

Entropy Splitting and Numerical Dissipation

A rigorous stability estimate for arbitrary order of accuracy of spatial central difference schemes for initial-boundary value problems of nonlinear symmetrizable systems of hyperbolic conservation laws was established recently by Olsson and Oliger (1994) and Olsson (1995) and was applied to the two-dimensional compressible Euler equations for a perfect gas by Gerritsen and Olsson (1996) and Gerritsen (1996). The basic building block in developing the stability estimate is a generalized energy approach based on a special splitting of the flux derivative via a convex entropy function and certain homogeneous properties. Due to some of the unique properties of the compressible Euler equations for a perfect gas, the splitting resulted in the sum of a conservative portion and a non-conservative portion of the flux derivative. hereafter referred to as the "Entropy Splitting." There are several potential desirable attributes and side benefits of the entropy splitting for the compressible Euler equations that were not fully explored in Gerritsen and Olsson. The paper has several objectives. The first is to investigate the choice of the arbitrary parameter that determines the amount of splitting and its dependence on the type of physics of current interest to computational fluid dynamics. The second is to investigate in what manner the splitting affects the nonlinear stability of the central schemes for long time integrations of unsteady flows such as in nonlinear aeroacoustics and turbulence dynamics. If numerical dissipation indeed is needed to stabilize the central scheme, can the splitting help minimize the numerical dissipation compared to its un-split cousin? Extensive numerical study on the vortex preservation capability of the splitting in conjunction with central schemes for long time integrations will be presented. The third is to study the effect of the non-conservative proportion of splitting in obtaining the correct shock location for high speed complex shock-turbulence interactions. The fourth is to determine if this method can be extended to other physical equations of state and other evolutionary equation sets. If numerical dissipation is needed, the Yee, Sandham, and Djomehri (1999) numerical dissipation is employed. The Yee et al. schemes fit in the Olsson and Oliger framework.

Yee, H. C.↗