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At least 1,279 records · Page 71

Seismic Excitation of the Polar Motion, 1977-1993

The mass redistribution in the earth as a result of an earthquake faulting changes the earth's inertia tensor, and hence its rotation. Using the complete formulae developed by CHAO and GROSS (1987) based on the normal mode theory, we calculated the earthquake-induced polar motion excitation for the largest 11,015 earthquakes that occurred during 1977.0-1993.6. The seismic excitations in this period are found to be two orders of magnitude below the detection threshold even with today's high precision earth rotation measurements. However, it was calculated that an earthquake of only one tenth the size of the great 1960 Chile event, if happened today, could be comfortably detected in polar motion observations. Furthermore, collectively these seismic excitations have a strong statistical tendency to nudge the pole towards approximately 140deg E, away from the actual observed polar drift direction. This non-random behavior, similarly found in other earthquake-induced changes in earth rotation and low-degree gravitational field by CHAO and GROSS (1987), manifests some geodynamic behavior yet to be explored.

Chao, Benjamin Fong↗

Design of the Wind Tunnel Model Communication Controller Board

The NASA Langley Research Center's Wind Tunnel Reinvestment project plans to shrink the existing data acquisition electronics to fit inside a wind tunnel model. Space limitations within a model necessitate a distributed system of Application Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs) rather than a centralized system based on PC boards. This thesis will focus on the design of the prototype of the communication Controller board. A portion of the communication Controller board is to be used as the basis of an ASIC design. The communication Controller board will communicate between the internal model modules and the external data acquisition computer. This board is based around an Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA), to allow for reconfigurability. In addition to the FPGA, this board contains buffer Random Access Memory (RAM), configuration memory (EEPROM), drivers for the communications ports, and passive components.

Wilson, William C.↗

Magnetic and Electrical Properties of Hg{sub 1–x–}Mn{sub x}Fe{sub y}Te{sub 1–z}S{sub z} Crystals

Electrical and magnetic properties of the semimagnetic semiconductor Hg{sub 1–x–y}Mn{sub x}Fe{sub y}Te{sub 1–z}S{sub z} solid solutions were studied in the ranges of temperatures 77–320 K and magnetic fields 0.25–6 kOe. In the crystals under study, the effect of giant magnetoresistance was observed that reached 75% at low temperatures. This is due to the fact that charge carriers that participate in the current transfer interact with a magnetized ferromagnetic cluster subsystem (Fe–Fe–Fe) and become spin-polarized. It is these spin-polarized charge carriers that are strongly scattered on antiferromagnetic Mn–S–Mn–S and Mn–Te–Mn–Te clusters, since the magnetic moments inside the clusters and the resulting magnetic moments of these clusters are randomly oriented.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Public Reference Data for Megawatt-Scale Hydrogen Electrolysis - Simulated Marine Hydrokinetic Tidal Turbine

The U.S. Department of Energy and National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) demonstrate hydrogen electrolysis, hydrogen compression and storage, and variable hydrogen fuel cell power production using megawatt-scale equipment at NLR’s Flatirons Campus as part of the Advanced Research on Integrated Energy Systems (ARIES) initiative. This dataset is part of that effort and is intended for academic, national laboratory, industrial, and other stakeholders to plan, design, and validate models of megawatt-scale hydrogen technologies and diverse energy infrastructure. These data provide a baseline for how existing hydrogen electrolysis technologies perform when coupled with other energy technologies. This dataset contains inputs and outputs from simulations of a floating marine hydrokinetic turbine over approximately half a tidal cycle (~6.6 hours). Inflow conditions were derived from field measurements in Alaska’s Cook Inlet and represent a tidal environment in which the current speed ramps from near 0 m/s to a peak of 3 m/s and back. The original acoustic doppler current profiler dataset is publicly available on the Marine and Hydrokinetic Data Repository. In a full tidal cycle, the flow reverses and the rotor would reorient; this reversal was not modeled. In the Cook Inlet campaign , turbulence intensity was similar in both directions. Two inflow cases are included. In the first case, labeled “raw” in the files, the measured current time series was used directly in the InflowWind module of OpenFAST. Speed and direction were applied as a function of time and elevation, uniformly in the horizontal direction. With full spatial coherence, this approach captures high turbulent variability and results in pronounced power fluctuations, so it is considered a conservative, near-worst-case representation of loading. In the second case, labeled “average” in the files, a 30-minute moving average was applied to extract the slowly varying mean speed. The residual fluctuations about this mean were used to generate spatially varying, full-field turbulence inputs with TurbSim, giving a more physically realistic representation of the inflow across the rotor disk. Two random realizations were used to produce distinct inflow conditions for two OpenFAST simulations representing a two-turbine array. The same turbulence intensity is applied across the full time series, producing larger fluctuations at the start and end, where the mean speed is low. The second case is the more appropriate framework for performance and power assessment but overpredicts turbulence at lower flow speeds and underpredicts it at higher speeds. As the floating platform moves and the rotor changes its x-position, Taylor’s frozen turbulence hypothesis used by InflowWind assumes a constant rather than a time-varying mean velocity, introducing some inaccuracy in the velocity plane sampling. The turbine modeled is the 500-kW Reference Model 1, a horizontal-axis two-bladed hydrokinetic turbine on a four-column floating semisubmersible substructure . Simulations were performed using OpenFAST v4.1 with the Reference Open Source Controller (ROSCO) v2.10. All input files required to reproduce the simulations are included. The electrolyzer is a 1.25-MW proton exchange membrane type MC250 system manufactured by Nel . This unit supports up to 2.5 MW, but NLR has only a single 1.25-MW stack. The datasets report hydrogen balance-of-plant and system data, all captured at 1 Hz, including hydrogen mass production measured with an Emerson Coriolis flow meter. The system controls hydrogen production by varying direct current applied to the stack, from a maximum of 3,000 A to a minimum safe operating current of 300 A, or 10%. Because the current–voltage characteristic changes as the stack ages and efficiency degrades, the actual minimum safe operating power changes over time. The simulated tidal turbine time series data was translated from power (kilowatts) to current (amperes) using a curve fit with calibration data and sent to the electrolyzer power supply at 1-Hz. Each zip file represents a single tidal electrolysis experiment and is named: {technology}_{inflow method}_{number of 500 kW tidal turbines connected} For instance, “tidal-500kW-RM1_average_2.zip” is a 6-hour experiment using the 500-kW tidal reference model, scaled by 2x (1-MW) to better match the electrolyzer maximum of 1.25MW, fed with the 30-minute moving average current case. Each zip folder contains the following files: A .csv file of raw data. An .xlsx file explaining all the fields in the raw data. A .png plot showing the time series of hydrogen production in kilograms per hour, electrolysis power consumption, and input wave power. A .csv file combines all tidal profiles as "combined_tidal_experiments.csv." A separate experiment, “characterization_200.zip,” shows the MC250 electrolyzer steady-state response with 30-minute load steps over 5 hours and is accessible with this entry.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Plateau inflation from random non-minimal coupling

A generic non-minimal coupling can push any higher-order terms of the scalar potential sufficiently far out in field space to yield observationally viable plateau inflation. We provide analytic and numerical evidence that this generically happens for a non-minimal coupling strength ξ of the order N{sub e}{sup 2}. In this regime, the non-minimally coupled field is sub-Planckian during inflation and is thus protected from most higher-order terms. For larger values of ξ, the inflationary predictions converge towards the sweet spot of PLANCK. The latter includes ξ≃10{sup 4} obtained from CMB normalization arguments, thus providing a natural explanation for the inflationary observables measured.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Selection of high-redshift Lyman-Break Galaxies from broadband and wide photometric surveys

Here, in this paper, we investigate the possibility of selecting high-redshift Lyman-Break Galaxies (LBG) using current and future broadband wide photometric surveys, such as the Ultraviolet Near Infrared Optical Northern Survey (UNIONS) or the Vera C. Rubin Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), using a Random Forest algorithm. This work is conducted in the context of future large-scale structure spectroscopic surveys like DESI-II, the next phase of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI), which will start around 2029. We use deep imaging data from the Hyper Suprime Camera (HSC) and the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope Large Area U-band Deep Survey (CLAUDS) on the COSMOS and XMM-LSS fields. To predict the selection performance of LBGs with image quality similar to UNIONS, we degrade the u,g,r,i and z bands to UNIONS depth. The Random Forest algorithm is trained with the u,g,r,i and z bands to classify LBGs in the 2.5 < z < 3.5 range. We find that fixing a target density budget of 1,100 deg -2 , the Random Forest approach gives a density of z > 2 targets of 873 deg -2 , and a density of 493 deg -2 of confirmed LBGs after spectroscopic confirmation with DESI. This UNIONS-like selection was tested in a dedicated spectroscopic observation campaign of 1,000 targets with DESI on the COSMOS field, providing a safe spectroscopic sample with a mean redshift of 3. This sample is used to derive forecasts for DESI-II, assuming a sky coverage of 5,000 deg 2 . We predict uncertainties on Alcock-Paczynski parameters α ⊥ and α ∥ to be 0.7% and 1% for 2.6 < z < 3.2, resulting in a potential 2% measurement of the dark energy fraction at high redshift. Additionally, we estimate the uncertainty in local non-Gaussianity and predict σ fNL ≈ 7, which would be comparable to the current best precision achieved by Planck. The latter forecast suggests that achieving the precision required to place stringent constraints on inflationary models (σ fNL ≈ 1) using spectroscopic galaxy surveys necessitates the development of a next-generation (Stage V) spectroscopic survey.

cosmological parameters from LSS↗

Remote sensing of Earth terrain

Remote sensing of earth terrain is examined. The layered random medium model is used to investigate the fully polarimetric scattering of electromagnetic waves from vegetation. The model is used to interpret the measured data for vegetation fields such as rice, wheat, or soybean over water or soil. Accurate calibration of polarimetric radar systems is essential for the polarimetric remote sensing of earth terrain. A polarimetric calibration algorithm using three arbitrary in-scene reflectors is developed. In the interpretation of active and passive microwave remote sensing data from the earth terrain, the random medium model was shown to be quite successful. A multivariate K-distribution is proposed to model the statistics of fully polarimetric radar returns from earth terrain. In the terrain cover classification using the synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images, the applications of the K-distribution model will provide better performance than the conventional Gaussian classifiers. The layered random medium model is used to study the polarimetric response of sea ice. Supervised and unsupervised classification procedures are also developed and applied to synthetic aperture radar polarimetric images in order to identify their various earth terrain components for more than two classes. These classification procedures were applied to San Francisco Bay and Traverse City SAR images.

Kong, Jin AU↗

Global field reconstruction from sparse sensors with Veronoi tessellation-assisted deep learning

Achieving accurate and robust global situational awareness of a complex time-evolving field from a limited number of sensors has been a longstanding challenge. This reconstruction problem is especially difficult when sensors are sparsely positioned in a seemingly random or unorganized manner, which is often encountered in a range of scientific and engineering problems. Moreover, these sensors can be in motion and can become online or offline over time. The key leverage in addressing this scientific issue is the wealth of data accumulated from the sensors. As a solution to this problem, we propose a data-driven spatial field recovery technique founded on a structured grid-based deep-learning approach for arbitrary positioned sensors of any numbers. It should be noted that the naïve use of machine learning becomes prohibitively expensive for global field reconstruction and is furthermore not adaptable to an arbitrary number of sensors. In the present work, we consider the use of Voronoi tessellation to obtain a structured-grid representation from sensor locations enabling the computationally tractable use of convolutional neural networks. One of the central features of the present method is its compatibility with deep-learning based super-resolution reconstruction techniques for structured sensor data that are established for image processing. The proposed reconstruction technique is demonstrated for unsteady wake flow, geophysical data, and three-dimensional turbulence. The current framework is able to handle an arbitrary number of moving sensors, and thereby overcomes a major limitation with existing reconstruction methods. The presented technique opens a new pathway towards the practical use of neural networks for real-time global field estimation.

Fukami, Kai↗

Probability Distribution Estimated From the Minimum, Maximum, and Most Likely Values: Applied to Turbine Inlet Temperature Uncertainty

Modern engineering design practices are tending more toward the treatment of design parameters as random variables as opposed to fixed, or deterministic, values. The probabilistic design approach attempts to account for the uncertainty in design parameters by representing them as a distribution of values rather than as a single value. The motivations for this effort include preventing excessive overdesign as well as assessing and assuring reliability, both of which are important for aerospace applications. However, the determination of the probability distribution is a fundamental problem in reliability analysis. A random variable is often defined by the parameters of the theoretical distribution function that gives the best fit to experimental data. In many cases the distribution must be assumed from very limited information or data. Often the types of information that are available or reasonably estimated are the minimum, maximum, and most likely values of the design parameter. For these situations the beta distribution model is very convenient because the parameters that define the distribution can be easily determined from these three pieces of information. Widely used in the field of operations research, the beta model is very flexible and is also useful for estimating the mean and standard deviation of a random variable given only the aforementioned three values. However, an assumption is required to determine the four parameters of the beta distribution from only these three pieces of information (some of the more common distributions, like the normal, lognormal, gamma, and Weibull distributions, have two or three parameters). The conventional method assumes that the standard deviation is a certain fraction of the range. The beta parameters are then determined by solving a set of equations simultaneously. A new method developed in-house at the NASA Glenn Research Center assumes a value for one of the beta shape parameters based on an analogy with the normal distribution (ref.1). This new approach allows for a very simple and direct algebraic solution without restricting the standard deviation. The beta parameters obtained by the new method are comparable to the conventional method (and identical when the distribution is symmetrical). However, the proposed method generally produces a less peaked distribution with a slightly larger standard deviation (up to 7 percent) than the conventional method in cases where the distribution is asymmetric or skewed. The beta distribution model has now been implemented into the Fast Probability Integration (FPI) module used in the NESSUS computer code for probabilistic analyses of structures (ref. 2).

Holland, Frederic A., Jr.↗

Numerical calculation of the particle–fluid–particle stress in random arrays of fixed particles

Based on the nearest particle statistics [Zhang, J. Fluid Mech. 910, A16 (2021)], the phase interaction force in a multiphase flow is decomposed into a particle–mean-field force and the divergence of the particle–fluid–particle (PFP) stress. The PFP stress is proportional to the correlation product of the distance from a particle to its nearest neighbor and the force on the particle conditionally averaged on the nearest-neighbor location. In this work, a functional form of the stress is obtained corrected to the first order of the ratio between the interparticle distance and the macroscopic length scale of the flow. Particle-resolved numerical simulations are used to calculate the PFP stress in random arrays of fixed particles and to explore the physics represented by the stress. The numerical results show that the PFP stress is attractive along the direction of the flow and is repulsive in the directions perpendicular to the flow. In the flow regime simulated, this PFP stress can be considered as a macroscopic representation of the drafting–kissing–tumbling mechanism. Finally, the Reynolds stress for the fluid phase is also calculated and compared with the PFP stress.

42 ENGINEERING↗

On the wave excitation in the turbulent meteor trace

The solution to the problem of excitation of longitudinal and transverse electromagnetic waves in randomly inhomogeneous media is reduced to the derivation of a complex effective dielectric constant (EDC) tensor which nonlocally connects together the average macroscopic electromagnetic fields in continuous media, it is implied that the field values which are rapidly fluctuating on a microscopic scale in space and time become smoothed out in a specified way due to the inhomogeneous mixing of diffusion. Proceedings from the derived general expression for the EDC tensor new modes of longitudinal and transverse electromagnetic wave generation due to fluctuation in the parameters of the medium was predicted. In this connection, it is of interest to investigate the peculiarities of electromagnetic longitudinal and transverse wave propagation in such randomly inhomogeneous media where, apart from the charged particle concentration change, the random spatial and temporal changes of natural frequency of closely located oscillators take place.

Jandieri, G. V.↗

Crystallographic and magnetic investigations of textured bismuth ferrite lead titanate layers

In present work we demonstrate the synthesis of textured 60BiFeO 3 –40PbTiO 3 (60:40 BFPT) by using the templated grain growth technique with platelets of BaTiO 3 . Synthesised 60:40 BFPT has been examined by High-energy x-ray diffraction utilizing a synchrotron x-ray source. The crystallographic structure refinement results revealed the co-existence of monoclinic and tetragonal phases. By employing an external electric field, the mixed monoclinic/tetragonal phases transformed to the predominantly tetragonal phase. In addition, a crystallographic texture refinement was completed on unpoled state of 60:40 BFPT which showed the sample had 1.3 multiples of random distribution (MRD) $\{100\}$ crystallographic textured in tetragonal phase. However, magnetic measurements showed isotropic ferromagnetism for the sample which is not in agreement with the crystallographic texture properties of the sample. Low temperature magnetic transition has been found in zero field cooled—field cooled (ZFC-FC) measurements. This could be due to the possible existence of a secondary magnetic phase, which dominated the magnetic result.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Towards robust surrogate models: Benchmarking machine learning approaches to expediting phase field simulations of brittle fracture

Data-driven approaches have the potential to make modeling complex, nonlinear physical phenomena significantly more computationally tractable. For example, computational modeling of fracture is a core challenge where machine learning techniques have the potential to provide a much needed speedup that would enable progress in areas such as multi-scale modeling and uncertainty quantification. Currently, phase field modeling (PFM) of fracture is one such approach that offers a convenient variational formulation to model crack nucleation, branching and propagation. To date, machine learning techniques have shown promise in approximating PFM simulations. While standard fracture benchmarks represent realistic scenarios frequently observed in practice, they typically do not provide sufficiently challenging tests for data-driven methods. Here, to address this gap, we introduce a challenging dataset based on PFM simulations designed to benchmark and advance ML methods for fracture modeling. This dataset includes three energy decomposition methods, two boundary conditions, and 1000 random initial crack configurations for a total of 6000 simulations. Each sample contains 100 time steps capturing the temporal evolution of the crack field. Alongside this dataset, we also implement and evaluate Physics Informed Neural Networks (PINN), Fourier Neural Operators (FNO), and UNet models as baselines, and explore the impact of ensembling strategies on prediction accuracy. With this combination of our dataset and baseline models drawn from the literature we aim to provide a standardized and challenging benchmark for evaluating machine learning approaches to solid mechanics. Our results highlight both the promise and limitations of popular current models, and demonstrate the utility of this dataset as a testbed for advancing machine learning in fracture mechanics research.

Benchmark dataset↗

Magnetic damping of rotation

Based on Wilson's (1977) article on the magnetic effects on space vehicles and other celestial bodies, the magnetic damping of rotation is considered. The inadequacy of the interstellar magnetic field in overcoming solar wind shielding and thus influencing the rotation of bodies is described. The ionospheric shielding of the interstellar field is discussed along with the permeability and magnetic damping by the solar or stellar wind. Star formation and angular momentum is discussed and attention is given to the magnetic damping of unshielded small bodies. Calculations of the rate for damping through random particle impact are made. Theories concerning the rotation of asteroids and the origin of meteorites are reviewed. The shielding process of ionospheric plasmas is outlined and the damping effect of the geomagnetic field on the rotation of artificial satellites is evaluated.

Opik, E. J.↗

Deep Learning Approaches to Surrogates for Solving the Diffusion Equation for Mechanistic Real-World Simulations

In many mechanistic medical, biological, physical, and engineered spatiotemporal dynamic models the numerical solution of partial differential equations (PDEs), especially for diffusion, fluid flow and mechanical relaxation, can make simulations impractically slow. Biological models of tissues and organs often require the simultaneous calculation of the spatial variation of concentration of dozens of diffusing chemical species. One clinical example where rapid calculation of a diffusing field is of use is the estimation of oxygen gradients in the retina, based on imaging of the retinal vasculature, to guide surgical interventions in diabetic retinopathy. Furthermore, the ability to predict blood perfusion and oxygenation may one day guide clinical interventions in diverse settings, i.e., from stent placement in treating heart disease to BOLD fMRI interpretation in evaluating cognitive function (Xie et al., 2019; Lee et al., 2020). Since the quasi-steady-state solutions required for fast-diffusing chemical species like oxygen are particularly computationally costly, we consider the use of a neural network to provide an approximate solution to the steady-state diffusion equation. Machine learning surrogates, neural networks trained to provide approximate solutions to such complicated numerical problems, can often provide speed-ups of several orders of magnitude compared to direct calculation. Surrogates of PDEs could enable use of larger and more detailed models than are possible with direct calculation and can make including such simulations in real-time or near-real time workflows practical. Creating a surrogate requires running the direct calculation tens of thousands of times to generate training data and then training the neural network, both of which are computationally expensive. Often the practical applications of such models require thousands to millions of replica simulations, for example for parameter identification and uncertainty quantification, each of which gains speed from surrogate use and rapidly recovers the up-front costs of surrogate generation. We use a Convolutional Neural Network to approximate the stationary solution to the diffusion equation in the case of two equal-diameter, circular, constant-value sources located at random positions in a two-dimensional square domain with absorbing boundary conditions. Such a configuration caricatures the chemical concentration field of a fast-diffusing species like oxygen in a tissue with two parallel blood vessels in a cross section perpendicular to the two blood vessels. To improve convergence during training, we apply a training approach that uses roll-back to reject stochastic changes to the network that increase the loss function. The trained neural network approximation is about 1000 times faster than the direct calculation for individual replicas. Because different applications will have different criteria for acceptable approximation accuracy, we discuss a variety of loss functions and accuracy estimators that can help select the best network for a particular application. We briefly discuss some of the issues we encountered with overfitting, mismapping of the field values and the geometrical conditions that lead to large absolute and relative errors in the approximate solution.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

The response field and the saddle points of quantum mechanical path integrals

Highlights: • Moyal quantum mechanics and Marinov’s path integral. • Classical and semiclassical limits of Marinov’s path integral. • Oscillating functional integrals. • Instantons of the Marinov’s path integral. In quantum statistical mechanics, Moyal’s equation governs the time evolution of Wigner functions and of more general Weyl symbols that represent the density matrix of arbitrary mixed states. A formal solution to Moyal’s equation is given by Marinov’s path integral. In this paper we demonstrate that this path integral can be regarded as the natural link between several conceptual, geometric, and dynamical issues in quantum mechanics. A unifying perspective is achieved by highlighting the pivotal role which the response field, one of the integration variables in Marinov’s integral, plays for pure states even. The discussion focuses on how the integral’s semiclassical approximation relates to its strictly classical limit; unlike for Feynman type path integrals, the latter is well defined in the Marinov case. The topics covered include a random force representation of Marinov’s integral based upon the concept of “Airy averaging”, a related discussion of positivity-violating Wigner functions describing tunneling processes, and the role of the response field in maintaining quantum coherence and enabling interference phenomena. The double slit experiment for electrons and the Bohm–Aharonov effect are analyzed as illustrative examples. Furthermore, a surprising relationship between the instantons of the Marinov path integral over an analytically continued (“Wick rotated”) response field, and the complex instantons of Feynman-type integrals is found. The latter play a prominent role in recent work towards a Picard–Lefschetz theory applicable to oscillatory path integrals and the resurgence program.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Sensitivity Enhancement and Random Telegraph Noise in Magnetic Tunnel Junctions with Compensated Anisotropy

We demonstrate the manipulation of perpendicular magnetic anisotropy (PMA) in magnetic tunnel junctions (MTJs) by varying the layer stacks and temperature. PMA is tuned to compensate the shape anisotropy, giving a nonhysteretic magnetic response, a noteworthy sensitivity enhancement, and a field detectability of 1.8 nT/$\sqrt{Hz}$ at 100 kHz. Such a method is further exemplified in multiple MTJs, providing a solution to obtain desired sensitivities and operating temperatures. Additionally, the electronic noise of this MTJ is revealed as a random telegraph noise (RTN) due to a generation-recombination process. In conclusion, the observed voltage-dependent RTN could potentially be applied to true random number generators.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Colorado Front Range Disasters: Understanding the Impact of Forest Management on the Cameron Peak and CalWood Fire

Along the Colorado Front Range, forest management has gained significant attention due to uncharacteristically large fires that burned late in 2020. The Cameron Peak Fire (largest in Colorado recorded history) and the CalWood Fire collectively burned an estimated 219,019 acres from August through December of 2020. Project partners at the Coalition for the Poudre River Watershed, Colorado State Forest Service, Ben Delatour Scout Ranch, The Nature Conservancy, Colorado Forest Restoration Institute, and Colorado State University were interested in understanding the effectiveness of previous forest treatments in reducing burn severity within the Cameron Peak Fire and the CalWood Fire. We first collated a forest treatment dataset from pre-existing datasets by reclassifying over 29,000 treatments, which occurred across the Northern Colorado Front Range between 1970-2020. Secondly, we mapped three burn severity indices using Landsat 8 OLI and Sentinel-2 MSI Earth observations and compared them to soil burn severity field data. Thirdly, a total of 35 topographic, disturbance, forest structure, and treatment predictor variables were generated across the fires. Finally, we assessed relationships between these predictor variables and burn severity using the random forest algorithm. Model results indicate that the primary drivers of burn severity were elevation and distance to treatment edge for the Cameron Peak Fire and fire area and forest canopy cover for the CalWood Fire. Further analysis of these variables paired with field data is necessary to understand the relationship between burn severity and treatments to guide future restoration efforts, improve forest resiliency, and mitigate fire risks.

Neal Swayze↗