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At least 1,279 records · Page 71

Converter-Interfaced CHP Plant for Improved Grid-Integration, Flexibility and Resiliency

GE Research and its partner GE Renewables have proposed the use of an interface converter solution to increase the penetration of small to medium-sized CHP (1MWe to 20MWe) into distribution grids and improve their flexibility and grid support capability. Indeed, the proposed interface converter solution thanks to presence of the grid-ready inverter, allows to streamline the compliance to grid codes requirements, reduce the interconnection delays and costs and ultimately one of the main barriers for CHP adoption by commercial and industrial facilities. An additional benefit provided by the interface converter is the use of the grid-ready inverter for reactive power which eliminates the need of sizing the generator for that capability. These two benefits highly favor the economic feasibility of converter-interfaced CHP. Five user cases, each in one of the leading U.S states for CHP potential reported by the DOE in its estimation of the U.S Technical Potential of CHP, were selected to compare the economic performances of converter-interfaced CHP as compared with directly-coupled. They include a college campus in California, a hospital in New York, a water reclamation plant in Texas, a hotel in Minnesota, and a large office building in Pennsylvania. Results showed that, the presence of the interface converter allows to increase the return on investment (ROI) by 0.5 to 2 percentage points in most of the cases (4 of 5). Indeed, the interface converter by shortening the interconnection process allows to accelerate revenues while reducing interconnection costs. Added to the reduced cost of the required generator these savings trade favorably the capital cost of the converter. The analysis also showed that the profitability of the converter-interfaced CHP is highly sensitive to the energy price, interconnection delay, and converter cost. However, it appears that if the interface converter can shorten the interconnection process by at least 6 months, adopting this solution will be more economically viable than directly-coupled configuration in almost all the +23,000 sites of the U.S Technical Potential CHP. The evaluation of the benefits of a converter-interfaced CHP also showed that it enables higher ROI when coupled with other distributed energy resources (DER) such as battery energy systems (BESS) or solar photovoltaic (PV). Indeed, in those scenario, the grid-ready inverter included in the interface converter eliminates the need of separate inverters if DC-coupling is used. On the technical performance, it has been verified that the presence of the interface converter allows to reduce by 70% to 80% the CHP short-circuit contribution to grid faults. This not only reduces the mechanical and thermal stresses exposed to the CHP electrical components but also increases the grid hosting capacity which ultimately enables higher penetrations CHP. Another key benefit of the interface converter validated with hardware-in-the-loop simulations and testing is its superior capability for reactive power support. Indeed, using a power hardware testbed with two +700kW inverters configured in back-to-back, a microgrid controller and actual facilities loads it was demonstrated that the presence of the interface converter can help maintain a power factor near ~1 or regulate the voltage to ~1.0pu at the point of common coupling. This benefit can be highly valuable if in the future, due to higher penetration of renewable distributed energy resources (DER), utilities start billing demand charge based on kVA instead of kW as currently. It was also validated that converter-interfaced CHP can dispatch heat and power commands and seamlessly switch between the two modes while consistently controlling the power factor or voltage at PCC. Indeed, the power hardware testing showed that grid-connected converter-interfaced CHP can follow either the power or heat demand while maintaining a unity power factor at converter output. This research proved that the adoption of an interface converter as the solution for interconnection of CHP system into the distribution grid can greatly improve the economic feasibility of small to medium-sized CHP as well as the plant power quality, flexibility and resiliency. Additionally, it allows increased penetrations of CHP into the distribution grid, extends their grid support capability, and facilitates the integration of BESS and PV DER by streamlining their collocation within the same facilities. This ultimately provides an opportunity for commercial and small industrial facilities in the U.S to accelerate their energy transition thanks to the high energy efficiency of CHP systems and its reliable, flexible, and resilient microgrid operation when interconnected with an interface converter.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Multi-Agent Modeling and Simulation Approach for Design and Analysis of MER Mission Operations

A space mission operations system is a complex network of human organizations, information and deep-space network systems and spacecraft hardware. As in other organizations, one of the problems in mission operations is managing the relationship of the mission information systems related to how people actually work (practices). Brahms, a multi-agent modeling and simulation tool, was used to model and simulate NASA's Mars Exploration Rover (MER) mission work practice. The objective was to investigate the value of work practice modeling for mission operations design. From spring 2002 until winter 2003, a Brahms modeler participated in mission systems design sessions and operations testing for the MER mission held at Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL). He observed how designers interacted with the Brahms tool. This paper discussed mission system designers' reactions to the simulation output during model validation and the presentation of generated work procedures. This project spurred JPL's interest in the Brahms model, but it was never included as part of the formal mission design process. We discuss why this occurred. Subsequently, we used the MER model to develop a future mission operations concept. Team members were reluctant to use the MER model, even though it appeared to be highly relevant to their effort. We describe some of the tool issues we encountered.

Seah, Chin↗

Analysis of modified SMI method for adaptive array weight control

An adaptive array is applied to the problem of receiving a desired signal in the presence of weak interference signals which need to be suppressed. A modification, suggested by Gupta, of the sample matrix inversion (SMI) algorithm controls the array weights. In the modified SMI algorithm, interference suppression is increased by subtracting a fraction F of the noise power from the diagonal elements of the estimated covariance matrix. Given the true covariance matrix and the desired signal direction, the modified algorithm is shown to maximize a well-defined, intuitive output power ratio criterion. Expressions are derived for the expected value and variance of the array weights and output powers as a function of the fraction F and the number of snapshots used in the covariance matrix estimate. These expressions are compared with computer simulation and good agreement is found. A trade-off is found to exist between the desired level of interference suppression and the number of snapshots required in order to achieve that level with some certainty. The removal of noise eigenvectors from the covariance matrix inverse is also discussed with respect to this application. Finally, the type and severity of errors which occur in the covariance matrix estimate are characterized through simulation.

Dilsavor, R. L.↗

Performance assessment of a real water source heat pump within a hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) testing environment

Over the last decade, the global fight against climate change through electrification has led to an increase in research on building heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems that utilize intelligent control algorithms to provide demand-side grid service while also maintaining the thermal comfort of building occupants. As the pivotal point between building electricity consumption and indoor thermal comfort, high-efficiency electrical vapor-compression heat pumps are at the center of these emerging studies, and various grid-interactive and occupant-comfort control algorithms have been developed for them. The impact of these algorithms on heat pump operation and performance when subjected to different weather conditions, building loads, and grid requests calls for investigation and verification via experimental testing with actual heat pumps integrated with real-time building and grid responses. This study introduces a Water-Source Heat Pump (WSHP) Hardware-in-The-Loop (HIL) Test Facility that is the first of its kind. This testbed utilizes a 2-ton variable speed water-to-air heat pump that is capable of interacting with a virtual environment currently comprised of an EnergyPlus (E+) building simulation, an agent-based occupant behavioral model, and a single U-tube ground-loop heat exchanger (GLHE) model. Detailed descriptions of the testbed’s physical design and operation, virtual environment, as well as their mutual communication is provided. An uncertainty analysis is also performed under manufacturer specified heating and cooling design conditions. This analysis shows that the total load across the WSHP’s demand side heat exchanger, i.e., the sum of its latent and sensible components, can be measured with a relative uncertainty of ± 10.4% and ± 3.6% in cooling and heating mode respectively. The WSHP’s coefficient of performance (COP) can be measured with relative uncertainties of ± 10.4% in cooling mode, and ± 3.7% in heating mode. A preliminary 24-h experimental demonstration is then performed utilizing the DOE prototype small commercial office building model in E+. The simulation takes place in Atlanta, GA on the date of 08/26/15 from 12:00 AM to 11:59 PM using TMY3 weather data. Here, the results from this demonstration show that over the course of this experiment the simulated outputs of zone dry-bulb temperature, zone humidity ratio, and WSHP inlet water temperature can be tracked by testbed emulators up to a root mean squared error (RMSE) of ± 0.27 °C, ± 0.376 g/kg, and ± 0.85 °C respectively. The WSHP’s dynamic behavioral characteristics and performance are also captured, and correspond well with the authors’ previous understanding of heat pump efficiency as a function of evaporator and condenser fluid inlet conditions respectively.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Learning the solution operator of parametric partial differential equations with physics-informed DeepONets

Partial differential equations (PDEs) play a central role in the mathematical analysis and modeling of complex dynamic processes across all corners of science and engineering. Their solution often requires laborious analytical or computational tools, associated with a cost that is markedly amplified when different scenarios need to be investigated, for example, corresponding to different initial or boundary conditions, different inputs, etc. In this work, we introduce physics-informed DeepONets, a deep learning framework for learning the solution operator of arbitrary PDEs, even in the absence of any paired input-output training data. We illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework in rapidly predicting the solution of various types of parametric PDEs up to three orders of magnitude faster compared to conventional PDE solvers, setting a previously unexplored paradigm for modeling and simulation of nonlinear and nonequilibrium processes in science and engineering.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

GridOPTICS/GridPACK

GridPACK is a software framework consisting of a set of modules designed to simplify the development of programs that model the power grid and run on parallel, high performance computing platforms. It also contains several fully developed applications, including powerflow, dynamic simulation, state estimation, Kalman filter analysis (dynamic state estimation), contingency analysis and real time path rating. These applications can be used either standalone or as components in more complicated workflows that combine several different types of application together. The framework modules are available as a combination of libraries and software templates and consist of components for setting up and distributing power grid networks, support for modeling the behavior of individual buses and branches in the network, converting the network models to the corresponding algebraic equations, and parallel routines for manipulating and solving large algebraic systems. The framework also contains a module for distributing tasks evenly amongst computing resources, even if individual tasks vary widely in their execution times. Additional modules support input and output, basic statistical analysis of contingency based calculations, distributed data structures, as well as basic profiling and error management.

Palmer, Bruce↗

The MARS Code System User’s Guide Version 15(2016)

This paper is a user’s guide to the current version of the MARS15 Monte Carlo code. MARS allows inclusive and, in many cases, exclusive simulations of three-dimensional hadronic and electromagnetic cascades and modeling of heavy ion, muon and low energy neutron-photon transport in accelerator, detector, spacecraft and shielding components. Particles can have energies from a fraction of an electronvolt up to about 100 TeV. The code has undergone substantial improvements since the last documented version MARS13(95) and since previous releases of MARS15; all these as well as other specific features of the MARS code system are explained in detail. Descriptions of general input and output with commentary and recommendations are given. Examples are given for running the program with distributed sources, complex compounds, arbitrary geometries, and magnetic fields. A built-in graphical-user interface allows the visualization and detailed analysis of the geometry description. Enhanced options are described for the MARS code being coupled with: the DPMJET hadron event generator, the MCNP code for low-energy neutron transport, the ANSYS system for thermal and stress analysis, physics analysis and graphics packages, the MAD accelerator lattice description via a universal MAD-MARS beam line builder, the STRUCT program for tracking particles in accelerator lattices with beam loss recording, the DETRA code for nuclide decay and transmutation calculations, the EGS5 code for precise modeling of low-energy electromagnetic showers, and the ROOT system for description and visualization of arbitrary geometries. Use of the code in a multistage mode, coupled with event generators (DPMJET), with the STRUCT program for tracking particles in accelerator lattices with beam loss recording, and with physics analysis and graphics packages is demonstrated with typical input and output examples.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Offshore wind energy forecasting sensitivity to sea surface temperature input in the Mid-Atlantic

Abstract. As offshore wind farm development expands, accurate wind resource forecasting over the ocean is needed. One important yet relatively unexplored aspect of offshore wind resource assessment is the role of sea surface temperature (SST). Models are generally forced with reanalysis data sets, which employ daily SST products. Compared with observations, significant variations in SSTs that occur on finer timescales are often not captured. Consequently, shorter-lived events such as sea breezes and low-level jets (among others), which are influenced by SSTs, may not be correctly represented in model results. The use of hourly SST products may improve the forecasting of these events. In this study, we examine the sensitivity of model output from the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) 4.2.1 to different SST products. We first evaluate three different data sets: the Multiscale Ultrahigh Resolution (MUR25) SST analysis, a daily, 0.25∘ × 0.25∘ resolution product; the Operational Sea Surface Temperature and Ice Analysis (OSTIA), a daily, 0.054∘ × 0.054∘ resolution product; and SSTs from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite 16 (GOES-16), an hourly, 0.02∘ × 0.02∘ resolution product. GOES-16 is not processed at the same level as OSTIA and MUR25; therefore, the product requires gap-filling using an interpolation method to create a complete map with no missing data points. OSTIA and GOES-16 SSTs validate markedly better against buoy observations than MUR25, so these two products are selected for use with model simulations, while MUR25 is at this point removed from consideration. We run the model for June and July of 2020 and find that for this time period, in the Mid-Atlantic, although OSTIA SSTs overall validate better against in situ observations taken via a buoy array in the area, the two products result in comparable hub-height (140 m) wind characterization performance on monthly timescales. Additionally, during hours-long flagged events (< 30 h each) that show statistically significant wind speed deviations between the two simulations, both simulations once again demonstrate similar validation performance (differences in bias, earth mover's distance, correlation, and root mean square error on the order of 10−1 or less), with GOES-16 winds validating nominally better than OSTIA winds. With a more refined GOES-16 product, which has been not only gap-filled but also assimilated with in situ SST measurements in the region, it is likely that hub-height winds characterized by GOES-16-informed simulations would definitively validate better than those informed by OSTIA SSTs.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Systems Analysis of Biomass and Coal Co-firing Power Plants with Deep Carbon Capture Toward Net-zero Emissions

Achieving a net-zero emission economy in the United States requires integrating diverse low-carbon and negative-emission technologies into the existing fossil fuel-dominant power fleet. Potential technologies from the low-carbon portfolio include renewable power, fossil power with carbon capture and storage (CCS), bioenergy with CCS (BECCS), and direct air capture (DAC). Renewable power is a clean energy source but has to pair with costly battery storage to provide dispatchable electricity. Fossil power with CCS offers dispatchable electricity yet still relies on DAC to offset residual emissions, even when deploying deep CCS with more than 90% CO2 capture. Coal-biomass co-firing with CCS, a subset of BECCS, is a reliable energy production technology that can be retrofitted from existing electricity generation units (EGUs). Power plant retrofit maximizes the use of the current U.S. coal power fleet without the need for large-scale deployment of new renewable power, battery storage, or DAC. Retrofitting coal-biomass co-firing with deep CCS in EGUs is a promising option, but not a universal solution. Biomass co-firing at a power plant introduces economic challenges and indirectly poses pressure on land and water resources. Meanwhile, retrofitting deep CCS affects plant efficiency and raises electricity generation costs. Overall, the technical feasibility and economic viability of plant retrofits vary across EGUs, as they are contingent upon the regional availability of biomass, unit-specific characteristics, site-specific fuel supply costs, and adjacent CO2 storage potential. Government incentives like 45Q can improve the retrofit viability, though the impact requires further quantification. A comprehensive analysis at the unit level is essential to address the question regarding the fate of the U.S. coal-fired electricity generation fleet toward the net-zero emission goal. This study conducts a systematic techno-economic-environmental assessment of EGUs to identify the viability of biomass co-firing and deep CCS retrofits in the U.S. coal-fired power fleet. Specifically, it characterizes the techno-economic performance of deep carbon capture, estimates life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and conducts a fleet-level assessment on retrofit viability. The key objectives are (1) to estimate the unit-specific performance and retrofitted cost under various biomass co-firing levels and CO2 capture rates; (2) to determine the possibility of reaching net-zero emission at the fleet level; (3) to quantify the cumulative capacities that are suitable for plant retrofits under current and future biomass supply scenarios; and (4) to improve the understanding of policy impacts on such retrofits to help the power sector’s transition to a net-zero economy. Techno-economic Model of Deep Carbon Capture. This study develops the performance and economic models for Monoethanolamine-based post-combustion CO2 capture at 95–99% capture rates. The process is simulated in Aspen Plus, analyzing the performance of carbon capture technology by varying the plant sizes, solvent lean loading, CO2 concentrations, and flue gas inlet temperature. Based on the key inputs and output parameters of CO2 capture, a reduced-order performance model of deep carbon capture is formulated. In addition, an engineering-economic model integrating the performance metrics is developed to estimate the capital as well as operation and maintenance (O&M) costs. Capital cost estimations follow the framework of the Integrated Environmental Control Model (IECM) and incorporate data regressions from three technical reports by IECM, the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The O&M cost estimation utilizes the actual inventory consumption rate and labor requirements. Both performance and cost models are embedded into IECM v13.0-beta, a fossil-fuel power plant modeling tool. Life Cycle Assessment of Power Plants. This study estimates the GHG emissions of power plants through life cycle assessment (LCA). The LCA scope includes fuel supply, combustion-based power generation, and CO2 transport and storage. The fuel-based life cycle module is designed following the framework of the NETL Unit Process Library and CO2U LCA Guidance Toolkit. The module is then incorporated into IECM v13.0-beta. The process-based LCA is applied to estimate the GHG emissions of coal and biomass supply, coal- and coal-biomass co-firing power plant operation, as well as CO2 pipeline transport and geographical sequestration. An uncertainty analysis is conducted to quantify the variability and uncertainty associated with the LCA using the Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) method. Fleet-level Assessment. This study evaluates the technical and economic feasibility of selected coal-fired EGUs, examines the role of tax credits in retrofit viability, and assesses the competitiveness of retrofitted units against other low-carbon options. Unit screening identifies EGUs for the study, focusing on new, efficient baseload units with air pollution controls. The power plant databases are then established to organize unit-specific information on performance and operating conditions from the relevant public databases. Biomass for co-firing retrofits is selected based on home and neighboring county availability, ensuring sustained operation with at least a 5% co-firing level. The CO2 storage site is determined by state-level storage potential, with ArcGIS Pro and NETL CO2 Saline Storage Cost Model used to identify the optimal balance between the nearest transport distances and affordable storage costs. The latest IECM v13.0-beta is then employed to configure and evaluate the eligible EGUs with or without the deployment of deep CCS and biomass co-firing. A supply curve is established to illustrate the cumulative installed capacity suitable for retrofits at different cost levels. A sensitivity analysis on tax credits for carbon sequestration is performed. Finally, a unit-level cost comparison is conducted among retrofitted plants, renewable power with battery storage, and abated fossil fuels with DAC. Expected Results. This study evaluates the technical, economic, and environmental metrics of each EGU across an array of CO2 capture rates and biomass co-firing level scenarios. Unit-level comparisons will identify critical factors influencing technical performance. The supply curves with and without tax incentives will provide insights into the impact of tax credits on biomass co-firing and CCS deployment. The cost comparisons with renewables and DAC-retrofit will assess the competitiveness of the retrofitted units. Life cycle emissions from each unit will be assessed to identify the scenarios under which net-zero emissions can be achieved. These analyses are expected to determine the total coal-fired capacity suitable for serving as a low-carbon energy source with or without tax incentives. The study results are novel in identifying optimal unit-specific strategies for producing carbon-neutral power, whether through retrofitting EGUs with deep CCS, biomass co-firing, DAC, or installing renewable power with battery. The findings will provide insight into nationwide efforts to ensure reliable, affordable, and low-carbon electricity. It also will inform investment decisions and policies in the deployment of deep carbon capture and negative emission technologies for a net-zero energy future.

Biomass Co-firing↗

Cost‐benefit assessment framework for robotics‐driven inspection of floating offshore wind farms

Abstract Operations and maintenance (O&M) of floating offshore wind farms (FOWFs) poses various challenges in terms of greater distances from the shore, harsher weather conditions, and restricted mobility options. Robotic systems have the potential to automate some parts of the O&M leading to continuous feature‐rich data acquisition, operational efficiency, along with health and safety improvements. There remains a gap in assessing the techno‐economic feasibility of robotics in the FOWF sector. This paper investigates the costs and benefits of incorporating robotics into the O&M of a FOWF. A bottom‐up cost model is used to estimate the costs for a proposed multi‐robot platform (MRP). The MRP houses unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and remotely operated vehicle (ROV) to conduct the inspection of specific FOWF components. Emphasis is laid on the most conducive O&M activities for robotization and the associated technical and cost aspects. The simulation is conducted in Windfarm Operations and Maintenance cost‐Benefit Analysis Tool (WOMBAT), where the metrics of incurred operational expenditure (OPEX) and the inspection time are calculated and compared with those of a baseline case consisting of crew transfer vessels, rope‐access technicians, and divers. Results show that the MRP can reduce the inspection time incurred, but this reduction has dependency on the efficacy of the robotic system and the associated parameterization e.g., cost elements and the inspection rates. Conversely, the increased MRP day rate results in a higher annualized OPEX. Residual risk is calculated to assess the net benefit of incorporating the MRP. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis is conducted to find the key parameters influencing the OPEX and the inspection time variation. A key output of this work is a robust and realistic framework which can be used for the cost‐benefit assessment of future MRP systems for specific FOWF activities.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

TU-G-BRD-08: In-Vivo EPID Dosimetry: Quantifying the Detectability of Four Classes of Errors

Purpose: EPID dosimetry is an emerging method for treatment verification and QA. Given that the in-vivo EPID technique is in clinical use at some centers, we investigate the sensitivity and specificity for detecting different classes of errors. We assess the impact of these errors using dose volume histogram endpoints. Though data exist for EPID dosimetry performed pre-treatment, this is the first study quantifying its effectiveness when used during patient treatment (in-vivo). Methods: We analyzed 17 patients; EPID images of the exit dose were acquired and used to reconstruct the planar dose at isocenter. This dose was compared to the TPS dose using a 3%/3mm gamma criteria. To simulate errors, modifications were made to treatment plans using four possible classes of error: 1) patient misalignment, 2) changes in patient body habitus, 3) machine output changes and 4) MLC misalignments. Each error was applied with varying magnitudes. To assess the detectability of the error, the area under a ROC curve (AUC) was analyzed. The AUC was compared to changes in D99 of the PTV introduced by the simulated error. Results: For systematic changes in the MLC leaves, changes in the machine output and patient habitus, the AUC varied from 0.78–0.97 scaling with the magnitude of the error. The optimal gamma threshold as determined by the ROC curve varied between 84–92%. There was little diagnostic power in detecting random MLC leaf errors and patient shifts (AUC 0.52–0.74). Some errors with weak detectability had large changes in D99. Conclusion: These data demonstrate the ability of EPID-based in-vivo dosimetry in detecting variations in patient habitus and errors related to machine parameters such as systematic MLC misalignments and machine output changes. There was no correlation found between the detectability of the error using the gamma pass rate, ROC analysis and the impact on the dose volume histogram. Funded by grant R18HS022244 from AHRQ.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

LADR: low-cost application-level detector for reducing silent output corruptions

Applications running on future high performance computing (HPC) systems are more likely to experience transient faults due to technology scaling trends with respect to higher circuit density, smaller transistor size and near-threshold voltage (NTV) operations. A transient fault could corrupt application state without warning, possibly leading to incorrect application output. Such errors are called silent data corruptions (SDCs). In this paper, we present LADR, a low-cost application-level SDC detector for scientific applications. LADR protects scientific applications from SDCs by watching for data anomalies in their state variables (those of scientific interest). It employs compile-time data-flow analysis to minimize the number of monitored variables, thereby reducing runtime and memory overheads while maintaining a high level of fault coverage with low false positive rates. We evaluated LADR with 4 scientific workloads and results show that LADR achieved < 80% fault coverage with only ∼ 3% runtime overheads and ∼ 1% memory overheads. As compared to prior state-of-the-art anomaly-based detection methods, SDC achieved comparable or improved fault coverage, but reduced runtime overheads by 21% ∼ 75%, and memory overheads by 35% ∼ 55% for the evaluated workloads. We believe that such an approach with low memory and runtime overheads coupled with attractive detection precision makes LADR a viable approach for assuring the correct output from large-scale high performance simulations.

Chen, Chao↗

Calibration tests on magnetic tape lightning current detectors

The low cost, passive, peak lightning current detector (LCD) invented at the NASA/Kennedy Space Center, uses magnetic audio recording tape to sense the magnitude of the peak magnetic field around a conductor carrying lightning currents. Test results show that the length of audio tape erased was linearly related to the peak simulated lightning currents in a round conductor. Accuracies of + or - 10% were shown for measurements made using a stopwatch readout technique to determine the amount of tape erased by the lightning current. The stopwatch technique is a simple, low cost means of obtaining LCD readouts and can be used in the field to obtain immediate results. Where more accurate data are desired, the tape is played and the output recorded on a strip chart, oscilloscope, or some other means so that measurements can be made on that recording. Conductor dimensions, tape holder dimensions, and tape formulation must also be considered to obtain a more accurate result. If the shape of the conductor is other than circular (i.e., angle, channel, H-beam), an analysis of the magnetic field is required to use an LCD, especially at low current levels.

Crouch, K. E.↗

A Spreadsheet Simulation Tool for Terrestrial and Planetary Balloon Design

During the early stages of new balloon design and development, it is necessary to conduct many trade studies. These trade studies are required to determine the design space, and aid significantly in determining overall feasibility. Numerous point designs then need to be generated as details of payloads, materials, mission, and manufacturing are determined. To accomplish these numerous designs, transient models are both unnecessary and time intensive. A steady state model that uses appropriate design inputs to generate system-level descriptive parameters can be very flexible and fast. Just such a steady state model has been developed and has been used during both the MABS 2001 Mars balloon study and the Ultra Long Duration Balloon Project. Using Microsoft Excel's built-in iteration routine, a model was built. Separate sheets were used for performance, structural design, materials, and thermal analysis as well as input and output sheets. As can be seen from figure 1, the model takes basic performance requirements, weight estimates, design parameters, and environmental conditions and generates a system level balloon design. Figure 2 shows a sample output of the model. By changing the inputs and a few of the equations in the model, balloons on earth or other planets can be modeled. There are currently several variations of the model for terrestrial and Mars balloons, as well there are versions of the model that perform crude material design based on strength and weight requirements. To perform trade studies, the Visual Basic language built into Excel was used to create an automated matrix of designs. This trade study module allows a three dimensional trade surface to be generated by using a series of values for any two design variables. Once the fixed and variable inputs are defined, the model automatically steps through the input matrix and fills a spreadsheet with the resulting point designs. The proposed paper will describe the model in detail, including current variations. The assumptions, governing equations, and capabilities will be addressed. Detailed examples of the model in practice will also be used.

Raquea, Steven M.↗

Shrub Expansion Simulations at Trail Valley Creek Tundra site using E3SM Land Model (ELM) Arctic-focused Version

The warming of the Arctic is causing substantial compositional, structural, and functional changes in tundra vegetation including shrub and densification in parts of the Arctic. Assessing the impact of these changes in vegetation composition on the Arctic’s carbon and energy budgets is important to constrain projected local and global surface-atmosphere exchanges. We conduct a sensitivity analysis of the projected surface energy fluxes, soil carbon pools, and carbon dioxide fluxes (net ecosystem exchange, gross primary production, and ecosystem respiration) between present day and 2100 to different shrub expansion rates and air temperature increases under future emission scenarios (intermediate – RCP4.5, and high – RCP8.5) using the Arctic-focused version of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model (ELM). We focus on Trail Valley Creek (TVC), a mineral upland tundra site located in the western Canadian Arctic, which is experiencing tall shrub densification and expansion. In this study, we run TVC under two different warming scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5 and simulate different shrubification rates projected until year 2100. In this repository, we include all the forcing, input, parameters, and output data corresponding to all the simulations performed. flmd.csv includes a detailed description of the datasets files.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Robust failure detection filters

The robustness of detection filters applied to the detection of actuator failures on a free-free beam is analyzed. This analysis is based on computer simulation tests of the detection filters in the presence of different types of model mismatch, and on frequency response functions of the transfers corresponding to the model mismatch. The robustness of detection filters based on a model of the beam containing a large number of structural modes varied dramatically with the placement of some of the filter poles. The dynamics of these filters were very hard to analyze. The design of detection filters with a number of modes equal to the number of sensors was trivial. They can be configured to detect any number of actuator failure events. The dynamics of these filters were very easy to analyze and their robustness properties were much improved. A change of the output transformation allowed the filter to perform satisfactorily with realistic levels of model mismatch.

Sanmartin, A. M.↗

AUTOMATIC LIMIT SURFACE SEARCH FOR PWR TRANSIENTS BY RELAP5-3D/RAVEN CODES

Deterministic safety analysis of nuclear power plants can be improved by applying modern algorithms and codes exploiting machine learning and parallel computing. In this paper we show the application of some of these advanced methodologies for the determination of limit surfaces. A limit surface is an n-dimensional surface describing the plant status, e.g. identifying, as function of selected plant parameters, the boundaries between failed and safe conditions for the core fuel. Using the RELAP5-3D system thermal-hydraulic code coupled to the RAVEN statistical-analysis code, we show how to apply machine-learning algorithms (near-neighbor, support-vector machine, etc.) for determining relevant limit surfaces for PWR station-blackout and loss of offsite power. As a first step, a set of training simulations is run to sample the nuclear power plant responses. Those calculations are used to train a Reduced-Order-Model (ROM), which RAVEN then uses for determining an approximated limit surface. Verification of the guessed limit surface is then automatically performed and calculation is terminated depending by the chosen convergence criteria. The combination of High Performance Computing (HPC) and ROMs allow a remarkable reduction of the time required for the surface determination. RAVEN performs also the automatic data collection of the output of the numerous runs, thus easing the workload of the safety analyst. Finally, using RAVEN “Ensamble Forward” sampling technique, we show how to inform the limit surface calculations with some of the code and input uncertainties.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

A priori analysis on deep learning of subgrid-scale parameterizations for Kraichnan turbulence

In the present study, we investigate different data-driven parameterizations for large eddy simulation of two-dimensional turbulence in the a priori settings. These models utilize resolved flow field variables on the coarser grid to estimate the subgrid-scale stresses. We use data-driven closure models based on localized learning that employs a multilayer feedforward artificial neural network with point-to-point mapping and neighboring stencil data mapping, and convolutional neural network fed by data snapshots of the whole domain. The performance of these data-driven closure models is measured through a probability density function and is compared with the dynamic Smagorinksy model (DSM). The quantitative performance is evaluated using the cross-correlation coefficient between the true and predicted stresses. We analyze different frameworks in terms of the amount of training data, selection of input and output features, their characteristics in modeling with accuracy, and training and deployment computational time. We also demonstrate computational gain that can be achieved using the intelligent eddy viscosity model that learns eddy viscosity computed by the DSM instead of subgrid-scale stresses. Here, we detail the hyperparameters optimization of these models using the grid search algorithm.

42 ENGINEERING↗