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At least 1,279 records · Page 71

A Catalog of Candidate Double and Lensed Quasars from Gaia and WISE Data

Making use of strong correlations between closely separated multiple or double sources and photometric and astrometric metadata in Gaia Early Data Release 3 (EDR3), we generate a catalog of candidate double- and multiply imaged lensed quasars and active galactic nuclei (AGNs), comprising 3140 systems. It includes two partially overlapping parts: a sample of distant (redshifts mostly greater than 1) sources with perturbed data; and systems that have been resolved into separate components by Gaia at separations less than 2''. For the first part, which is roughly one-third of the published catalog, we synthesized 0.617 million redshifts using multiple machine-learning prediction and classification methods, using independent photometric and astrometric data from Gaia EDR3 and the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer, with accurate spectroscopic redshifts from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) as a training set. Using these synthetic redshifts, we estimate a 4.9% rate of interlopers with spectroscopic redshifts below 1 in this part of the catalog. Unresolved candidate double and dual AGNs and quasars are selected as sources with a marginally high BP/RP excess factor (phot_bp_rp_excess_factor), which is sensitive to source extent, limiting our search to high-redshift quasars. For the second part of the catalog, additional filters on measured parallax and near-neighbor statistics are applied to diminish the propagation of the remaining stellar contaminants. The estimated rate of the positives (double or multiple sources) is 98%, and the estimated rate of dual (physically related) quasars is greater than 54%. A few dozen serendipitously found objects of interest are discussed in more detail, including known and new lensed images, planetary nebulae, young IR stars of peculiar morphology, and quasars with catastrophic redshift errors in SDSS.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A two step linear statistical technique using leaps and bounds procedure for retrieval of geophysical parameters from microwave radiometric data

A linear statistical technique using a 'leaps and bounds' procedure (Furnival and Wilson, 1974) is developed for retrieving geophysical parameters from remote measurements. It is used for retrieving sea surface temperatures from the Scaning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) on Seasat. The technique uses an efficient algorithm to select the best fixed-size subset of the 10 SMMR channels for linearly retrieving a given geophysical parameter. The 5-channel subset (6.6V, 6.6H 10H, 18V, 21H), where V and H refer to, respectively, the vertical and horizontal polarizations and the numbers are the channel frequencies in gigahertz, gives the minimum rms error in estimating the sea surface temperature. A comparison with ground truth indicates that the algorithm infers the temperature with an rms accuracy of better than 1.5 K under most environmental conditions. A quality control procedure which is seen as holding promise for further improving the accuracy is proposed.

Kakar, R. K.↗

Statistical analysis of SSME system data

A statistical methodology to enhance the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) performance prediction accuracy is proposed. This methodology was to be used in conjunction with existing SSME performance prediction computer codes to improve parameter prediction accuracy and to quantify that accuracy. However, after a review of related literature, researchers concluded that the proposed problem required a coverage of areas such as linear and nonlinear system theory, measurement theory, statistics, and stochastic estimation. Since state space theory is the foundation for a more complete study of each of the before mentioned areas, these researchers chose to refocus emphasis to cover the more specialized topic of state vector estimation procedures. State vector estimation was also selected because of current and future concerns by NASA for SSME performance evaluation; i.e., there is a current interest in an improved evaluation procedure for actual SSME post flight performance as well as for post static test performance of a single SSME. A current investigation of analytical methods may be used to improve test stand failure detection. This paper considers the issue of post flight/test state variable reconstruction through the application of observations made on the output of the Space Shuttle propulsion system. Rogers used the Kalman filtering procedure to reconstruct the state variables of the Space Shuttle propulsion system. An objective of this paper is to give the general setup of the Kalman filter and its connection to linear regression. A second objective is to examine the reconstruction methodology for application to the reconstruction of the state vector of a single Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) by using static test firing data.

Temple, Enoch C.↗

BATSE software for the analysis of the gamma ray burst spatial distribution

The Burst and Transient Source Experiment (BATSE) on the Gamma Ray Observatory (GRO) is designed to study astronomical gamma ray sources and to provide better positional, spectral, and time resolution about these objects than has previously been possible from one experiment. The procedure to be used in the analysis of the gamma ray burst spatial distribution is presented. Data is input from BATSE via the Gamma Ray Burst Catalog (listing individual burst positions, flux values, and associated errors) and the Sky Sensitivity Map (which summarizes observational selection effects in table format). A FORTRAN program generates Monte Carlo burst catalogs, which are models to be compared to the actual distribution. The Monte Carlo models are then filtered through the Sky Sensitivity Map so that they suffer from the same selection effects as the actual catalog data. Additionally, each burst position is converted into a probability distribution to mimic BATSE positional sensitivity. The Burst Catalog, Monte Carlo burst catalog, and Sky Sensitivity Map are then passed onto an IDL program that compares the catalogs for statistical significance. The Sky Sensitivity Map is used to estimate how often each sky area is observed above the minimum flux level in question. Each burst found in this sky area is then weighted according to the frequency with which this sky area is observed. The catalogs are then compared via tests of homogeneity (based on their radial distributions) and isotropy (based upon their angular distributions). The results of the statistical comparisons along with graphs and charts of the summaries, are output from the IDL program for study.

Hakkila, Jon↗

Microstructural design of fiber composites

The optimum performance design of composite microstructures is discussed. The forces driving progress in fiber composites are examined, and recent developments in the mechanics of laminated composites are surveyed, emphasizing thick laminates, hygrothermal effects, and thermal transient effects. The strength of continuous-fiber composites is discussed, presenting analyses of local load redistribution due to fiber breakages and treatments of statistical tensile strength theories. Modes of failure of laminated composites are examined. Elastic, physical, and viscoelastic properties as well as the strength and fracture behavior of short-fiber composites are studied, and it is shown how the performance of composites can be controlled by selecting material systems and their geometric distributions. 2D textile structural composites based on woven, knitted, and braided preforms are considered, and techniques for analyzing and modeling the thermomechanical behavior of 2D textile composites are presented. Recent developments in the processing of 3D textile preforms are introduced and the processing-microstructure relationship is demonstrated. Finite elastic deformation of flexible composites is addressed.

Chou, Tsu-Wei↗

A deep x ray survey in the Lockman hole and the soft x ray log N - log S

The longest pointed observation (152 ksec) with the Rosat position sensitive proportional counter in the direction of the absolutely lowest neutral hydrogen column density is discussed. 26 shallower fields from the Rosat medium sensivity survey are analyzed. 1176 X-ray sources were detected in at least one Rosat energy band in these fields covering a total solid angle of 9.3 deg; 661 of these sources constitute a statistically complete sample detected in the hard band with 0.5 to 2 keV fluxes greater than 2.5 times 10 to the power of minus 15 erg/sq cm s. The faintest limiting flux of the survey is analyzed. Detailed simulations show that confusion effects and other selection biases are relatively small and can be corrected for in the sample. From an analysis in the Lockman field, a best fit slope of approximately 1.8 is found for the extrapolation of the differential X-ray counts below 2.5 times 10 to the power of minus 15 erg/sq cm s. On the basis of this analysis an upper limit of approximately 25% can be found for a truly diffuse background component in the Rosat hard band.

Hasinger, G.↗

LES on unstructured deforming meshes: Towards reciprocating IC engines

A variable explicit/implicit characteristics-based advection scheme that is second-order accurate in space and time has been developed recently for unstructured deforming meshes (O'Rourke & Sahota 1996a). To explore the suitability of this methodology for Large-Eddy Simulation (LES), three subgrid-scale turbulence models have been implemented in the CHAD CFD code (O'Rourke & Sahota 1996b): a constant-coefficient Smagorinsky model, a dynamic Smagorinsky model for flows having one or more directions of statistical homogeneity, and a Lagrangian dynamic Smagorinsky model for flows having no spatial or temporal homogeneity (Meneveau et al. 1996). Computations have been made for three canonical flows, progressing towards the intended application of in-cylinder flow in a reciprocating engine. Grid sizes were selected to be comparable to the coarsest meshes used in earlier spectral LES studies. Quantitative results are reported for decaying homogeneous isotropic turbulence, and for a planar channel flow. Computations are compared to experimental measurements, to Direct-Numerical Simulation (DNS) data, and to Rapid-Distortion Theory (RDT) where appropriate. Generally satisfactory evolution of first and second moments is found on these coarse meshes; deviations are attributed to insufficient mesh resolution. Issues include mesh resolution and computational requirements for a specified level of accuracy, analytic characterization of the filtering implied by the numerical method, wall treatment, and inflow boundary conditions. To resolve these issues, finer-mesh simulations and computations of a simplified axisymmetric reciprocating piston-cylinder assembly are in progress.

Haworth, D. C.↗

The Role of Spatial Disorientation in Fatal General Aviation Accidents

In-flight Spatial Disorientation (SD) in pilots is a serious threat to aviation safety. Indeed, SD may play a much larger role in aviation accidents than the approximate 6-8% reported by the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) each year, because some accidents coded by the NTSB as aircraft control-not maintained (ACNM) may actually result from SD. The purpose of this study is to determine whether SD is underestimated as a cause of fatal general aviation (GA) accidents in the NTSB database. Fatal GA airplane accidents occurring between January 1995 and December 1999 were reviewed from the NTSB aviation accident database. Cases coded as ACNM or SD as the probable cause were selected for review by a panel of aerospace medicine specialists. Using a rating scale, each rater was instructed to determine if SD was the probable cause of the accident. Agreement between the raters and agreement between the raters and the NTSB were evaluated by Kappa statistics. The raters agreed that 11 out of 20 (55%) accidents coded by the NTSB as ACNM were probably caused by SD (p less than 0.05). Agreement between the raters and the NTSB did not reach significance (p greater than 0.05). The 95% C.I. for the sampling population estimated that between 33-77% of cases that the NTSB identified as ACNM could be identified by aerospace medicine experts as SD. Aerospace medicine specialists agreed that some cases coded by the NTSB as ACNM were probably caused by SD. Consequently, a larger number of accidents may be caused by the pilot succumbing to SD than indicated in the NTSB database. This new information should encourage regulating agencies to insure that pilots receive SD recognition training, enabling them to take appropriate corrective actions during flight. This could lead to new training standards, ultimately saving lives among GA airplane pilots.

Scheuring, RIchard↗

A Scanning Hartmann Focus Test for the EUVI Telescopes aboard STEREO

The Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO), the third mission in NASA's Solar Terrestrial Probes program, was launched in 2006 on a two year mission to study solar phenomena. STEREO consists of two nearly identical satellites, each carrying an Extreme Ultraviolet Imager (EUVI) telescope as part of the Sun Earth Connection Coronal and Heliospheric Investigation instrument suite. EUVI is a normal incidence, 98mm diameter, Ritchey-Chretien telescope designed to obtain wide field of view images of the Sun at short wavelengths (17.1-30.4nm) using a CCD detector. The telescope entrance aperture is divided into four quadrants by a mask near the secondary mirror spider veins. A mechanism that rotates another mask allows only one of these sub-apertures to accept light over an exposure. The EUVI contains no focus mechanism. Mechanical models predict a difference in telescope focus between ambient integration conditions and on-orbit operation. We describe an independent check of the ambient, ultraviolet, absolute focus setting of the EUVI telescopes after they were integrated with their respective spacecraft. A scanning Hartmann-like test design resulted from constraints implied by the EUVI aperture select mechanism. This inexpensive test was simultaneously coordinated with other NASA integration and test activities in a high-vibration, clean room environment. The total focus test error was required to be better than +/-0.05 mm. We describe the alignment and test procedure, sources of statistical and systematic error, and then the focus determination results using various algorithms. The results are consistent with other tests of focus alignment and indicate that the EUVI telescopes meet the ambient focus offset requirements. STEREO is functioning well on-orbit and the EUVI telescopes meet their on-orbit image quality requirements.

Ohl, Ray↗

Turbulent Concentration of MM-Size Particles in the Protoplanetary Nebula: Scaled-Dependent Multiplier Functions

The initial accretion of primitive bodies (asteroids and TNOs) from freely-floating nebula particles remains problematic. Here we focus on the asteroids where constituent particle (read "chondrule") sizes are observationally known; similar arguments will hold for TNOs, but the constituent particles in those regions will be smaller, or will be fluffy aggregates, and are unobserved. Traditional growth-bysticking models encounter a formidable "meter-size barrier" [1] (or even a mm-cm-size barrier [2]) in turbulent nebulae, while nonturbulent nebulae form large asteroids too quickly to explain long spreads in formation times, or the dearth of melted asteroids [3]. Even if growth by sticking could somehow breach the meter size barrier, other obstacles are encountered through the 1-10km size range [4]. Another clue regarding planetesimal formation is an apparent 100km diameter peak in the pre-depletion, pre-erosion mass distribution of asteroids [5]; scenarios leading directly from independent nebula particulates to this size, which avoid the problematic m-km size range, could be called "leapfrog" scenarios [6-8]. The leapfrog scenario we have studied in detail involves formation of dense clumps of aerodynamically selected, typically mm-size particles in turbulence, which can under certain conditions shrink inexorably on 100-1000 orbit timescales and form 10-100km diameter sandpile planetesimals. The typical sizes of planetesimals and the rate of their formation [7,8] are determined by a statistical model with properties inferred from large numerical simulations of turbulence [9]. Nebula turbulence can be described by its Reynolds number Re = L/eta sup(4/3), where L = ETA alpha sup (1/2) the largest eddy scale, H is the nebula gas vertical scale height, and α the nebula turbulent viscosity parameter, and η is the Kolmogorov or smallest scale in turbulence (typically about 1km), with eddy turnover time tη. In the nebula, Re is far larger than any numerical simulation can handle, so some physical model is needed to extend the results of numerical simulations to nebula conditions.

protoplanetary nebula↗

Improved Broadband Liner Optimization Applied to the Advanced Noise Control Fan

The broadband component of fan noise has grown in relevance with the utilization of increased bypass ratio and advanced fan designs. Thus, while the attenuation of fan tones remains paramount, the ability to simultaneously reduce broadband fan noise levels has become more desirable. This paper describes improvements to a previously established broadband acoustic liner optimization process using the Advanced Noise Control Fan rig as a demonstrator. Specifically, in-duct attenuation predictions with a statistical source model are used to obtain optimum impedance spectra over the conditions of interest. The predicted optimum impedance information is then used with acoustic liner modeling tools to design liners aimed at producing impedance spectra that most closely match the predicted optimum values. Design selection is based on an acceptance criterion that provides the ability to apply increased weighting to specific frequencies and/or operating conditions. Constant-depth, double-degree of freedom and variable-depth, multi-degree of freedom designs are carried through design, fabrication, and testing to validate the efficacy of the design process. Results illustrate the value of the design process in concurrently evaluating the relative costs/benefits of these liner designs. This study also provides an application for demonstrating the integrated use of duct acoustic propagation/radiation and liner modeling tools in the design and evaluation of novel broadband liner concepts for complex engine configurations.

Nark, Douglas M.↗

The Integrated Impact of Diet On Human Immune Response, the Gut Microbiota, and Nutritional Status During Adaptation to a Spaceflight Analog

Spaceflight impacts human physiology, including well documented immune system dysregulation. Diet, immune function, and the microbiome are interlinked, but diet is the only one of these factors that we have the ability to easily, and significantly, alter on Earth or during flight. As we understand dietary impacts on physiology more thoroughly, we may then improve the spaceflight diet to improve crew health and potentially reduce flight-associated physiological alterations. It is expected that increasing the consumption of fruits and vegetables and bioactive compounds (e.g.,omega-3 fatty acids, lycopene, flavonoids) and therefore enhancing overall nutritional intake from the nominal shelf-stable, fully-processed space food system could serve as a countermeasure to improve human immunological profiles, the taxonomic profile of the gut microbiota, and nutritional status, especially where currently dysregulated during spaceflight. This interdisciplinary study will determine the effect of the current shelf-stable spaceflight diet compared to an "enhanced" shelf-stable spaceflight diet (25% more foods rich in omega-3 fatty acids, lycopene, flavonoids, fruits, and vegetables). The NASA Human Exploration Research Analog (HERA) 2017 missions, consisting of closed chamber confinement, realistic mission simulation, in a high-fidelity mock space vehicle, will serve as a platform to replicate mission stressors and the dysregulated physiology observed in astronauts. Biosampling of crew members will occur at selected intervals, with complete dietary tracking. Outcome measures will include immune markers (e.g., peripheral leukocyte distribution, inflammatory cytokine profiles, T cell function), the taxonomic and metatranscriptomic profile of the gut microbiome, and nutritional status biomarkers and metabolites. Data collection will also include complete dietary tracking. Statistical evaluations will determine physiological and biochemical shifts in relation to nutrient in take and study phase. Beneficial improvements will provide evidence of the impact of diet on crew health and adaptation to this spaceflight analog, and will aid in the design and development of more-efficient targeted dietary interventions.

Douglas, G. L.↗

The Integrated Impact of Diet on Human Immune Response, the Gut Microbiota, and Nutritional Status During Adaptation to a Spaceflight Analog

Spaceflight impacts human physiology, including well documented immune system dysregulation. Diet, immune function, and the microbiome are interlinked, but diet is the only one of these factors that we have the ability to easily, and significantly, alter on Earth or during flight. As we understand dietary impacts on physiology more thoroughly, we may then improve the spaceflight diet to improve crew health and potentially reduce spaceflight-associated physiological alterations. It is expected that increasing the consumption of fruits and vegetables and bioactive compounds (e.g., omega-3 fatty acids, lycopene, flavonoids) and therefore enhancing overall nutritional intake from the nominal shelf-stable, fully-processed space food system could serve as a countermeasure to improve human immunological profiles, the taxonomic profile of the gut microbiota, and nutritional status, especially where currently dysregulated during spaceflight. This interdisciplinary study will determine the effect of the current shelf-stable spaceflight diet compared to an "enhanced" shelf-stable spaceflight diet (25% more foods rich in omega-3 fatty acids, lycopene, flavonoids, and more fruits, and vegetables in general). The NASA Human Exploration Research Analog (HERA) 2017 missions, consisting of four 45-day missions with closed chamber confinement and realistic mission simulation in a high-fidelity mock space vehicle, will serve as a platform to replicate mission stressors and the effects on crew biochemistry, immunology, and the gut microbiome. Bio sampling of crewmembers is scheduled for selected intervals pre- and in-mission. Data collection also includes dietary intake recording. Outcome measures will include immune markers (e.g., peripheral leukocyte distribution, inflammatory cytokine profiles, T cell function), the taxonomic and metatranscriptomic profile of the gut microbiome, and nutritional status biomarkers and metabolites. Statistical evaluations will determine physiological and biochemical shifts in relation to nutrient intake and study phase. To date, sample collection has been completed for 2 crewmembers from the first mission, aka Campaign 4 Mission 1. Mission 2 was terminated after 22 days due to effects of Hurricane Harvey, and sample collection was not completed. Sample collection will continue for Campaign 4 Mission 3 and 4 prior to comprehensive sample analysis. Beneficial improvements will provide evidence of the impact of diet on crew health and adaptation to this spaceflight analog, and will aid in the design and development of more-efficient targeted dietary interventions for exploration missions.

Douglas, G. L.↗

L2-Charged Particle Environment (L2-CPE)Low Energy Radiation Fluence Model

The L2 Charged Particle Environment (L2-CPE) model provides estimates of number flux and fluence for the low energy electron, proton, and alpha particle populations in the near Earth solar wind and the Earth’s distant magnetosheath and magnetotail. The model is an engineering tool for specifying radiation environments over an energy range from a few eV to a few MeV of importance to surface dose and radiation damage to thin space exposed materials and is intended for use in space system design applications. Mission fluences are obtained by simulating a spacecraft flight trajectory through time-dependent bow shock and magnetopause boundaries with dimensions and orientations driven by solar wind parameters. Monte Carlo sampling of flux environments within individual plasma regimes and/or fluence accumulated along a fight trajectory through multiple regimes is used to determine statistical variations (means and extremes) of the differential number flux and fluence environments for each of the three charged particle species. Model output is differential (in energy) number fluence and flux for the three particle species in units of particles/cm2-keV and particles/cm2-sec-keV, respectively. Users can select the energy range of interest but the current version of the code (L2-CPE Version 1.4.2d) is limited to an energy range of 1 eV to 10 MeV. Flux is integrated over angle to give flux and fluence to surfaces in the ±XGSE, ±YGSE, and/or ±ZGSE directions. Figure 1 shows the opening screen from the L2-CPE graphical user interface (GUI) with options for flux, fluence, plotting model output. The flux scene generate is not currently implemented in the GUI.

Joseph I Minow↗

Optimal Sizing of Resilience Solutions for the U.S. Army Reserve

Power or water outages in buildings threaten the ability of the military to support surrounding communities during natural disasters. Outages can last for days, weeks or months. Typical solutions include very expensive batteries and onsite generation that are sized based on historical power needs. The U.S. Army Reserve (USAR) has teamed up with the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) to develop a simulation framework that optimizes future power needs to reduce the cost of resilience solutions. The approach starts with the building. Power needs during an emergency event are simulated at the building end-use level, then loads are reduced through the selection of life cycle cost-effective building-level technology improvements. These new optimized loads are then fed into a microgrid sizing tool that dynamically constructs many different combinations of solar photovoltaic, battery storage, and generator resources to meet the load for hundreds of statistically generated outage scenarios. Six site assessments completed by USAR and PNNL in 2019 have resulted in a 1-14% reduction in overall investment when optimizing the buildings first before determining the generation requirements. This approach helps the Army secure critical missions and provide a 14 day-minimum supply of necessary energy and water in the most efficient manner.

buidlings, efficiency, resilience, FEDS, MCOR↗

A simulation of I 2 S-LWR selected transients

The Integral Inherently Safe (I 2 S-LWR) reactor was designed to improve the safety performance of PWR types reactors, and several design basis accidents were eliminated using innovative approaches to the I 2 S-LWR plant layout. However, some accidents such as station blackout (SBO), main steam line break (MSLB) type accident – the secondary hot leg break (SHLB) – were deemed statistically relevant, and the work performed here was to simulate these events using the system thermal–hydraulics code RELAP5 coupled to the 3D spatial kinetics code PARCS. The safety response of the reactor to a station blackout is predicted to be acceptable at both beginning of cycle (BOC) and end of cycle EOC core conditions with either the UO 2 or U 3 Si 2 fuel options considered here. In the analysis of the SHLB performed here, an unprotected (no SCRAM) condition was assumed to highlight the I 2 S-LWR capabilities. Results indicate that with the UO 2 core, the fuel temperatures rise notably, but no fuel melting was predicted and departure from nucleate boiling ratio (DNBR) limits were not exceeded. Similarly, the U 3 Si 2 fuel performed well, but with lower fuel temperatures and decreased DNBR. Following the break of the steam line in the I 2 S-LWR, shutdown is achieved after about two minutes via negative reactivity from loss of primary flow. In all cases considered, the I 2 S-LWR appears to accomplish the goals of increased safety performance. Further design improvements and other fuel options may marginally improve on the observed safety performance. Additionally, higher fidelity analysis with the next generation subchannel, Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD), or full core transport may be useful in refining the prediction of the peak fuel and cladding temperatures, as well limiting DNBR during the accidents.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Inverse problems-based maximum likelihood estimation of ground reflectivity for selected regions of interest from stripmap SAR data [Regularized maximum likelihood estimation of ground reflectivity from stripmap SAR data]

In this study, we derive a comprehensive forward model for the data collected by stripmap synthetic aperture radar (SAR) that is linear in the ground reflectivity parameters. It is also shown that if the noise model is additive, then the forward model fits into the linear statistical model framework, and the ground reflectivity parameters can be estimated by statistical methods. We derive the maximum likelihood (ML) estimates for the ground reflectivity parameters in the case of additive white Gaussian noise. Furthermore, we show that obtaining the ML estimates of the ground reflectivity requires two steps. The first step amounts to a cross-correlation of the data with a model of the data acquisition parameters, and it is shown that this step has essentially the same processing as the so-called convolution back-projection algorithm. The second step is a complete system inversion that is capable of mitigating the sidelobes of the spatially variant impulse responses remaining after the correlation processing. We also state the Cramer-Rao lower bound (CRLB) for the ML ground reflectivity estimates.We show that the CRLB is linked to the SAR system parameters, the flight path of the SAR sensor, and the image reconstruction grid.We demonstrate the ML image formation and the CRLB bound for synthetically generated data.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Launch Vehicle Propulsion Parameter Design Multiple Selection Criteria

The optimization tool described herein addresses and emphasizes the use of computer tools to model a system and focuses on a concept development approach for a liquid hydrogen/liquid oxygen single-stage-to-orbit system, but more particularly the development of the optimized system using new techniques. This methodology uses new and innovative tools to run Monte Carlo simulations, genetic algorithm solvers, and statistical models in order to optimize a design concept. The concept launch vehicle and propulsion system were modeled and optimized to determine the best design for weight and cost by varying design and technology parameters. Uncertainty levels were applied using Monte Carlo Simulations and the model output was compared to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Space Shuttle Main Engine. Several key conclusions are summarized here for the model results. First, the Gross Liftoff Weight and Dry Weight were 67% higher for the design case for minimization of Design, Development, Test and Evaluation cost when compared to the weights determined by the minimization of Gross Liftoff Weight case. In turn, the Design, Development, Test and Evaluation cost was 53% higher for optimized Gross Liftoff Weight case when compared to the cost determined by case for minimization of Design, Development, Test and Evaluation cost. Therefore, a 53% increase in Design, Development, Test and Evaluation cost results in a 67% reduction in Gross Liftoff Weight. Secondly, the tool outputs define the sensitivity of propulsion parameters, technology and cost factors and how these parameters differ when cost and weight are optimized separately. A key finding was that for a Space Shuttle Main Engine thrust level the oxidizer/fuel ratio of 6.6 resulted in the lowest Gross Liftoff Weight rather than at 5.2 for the maximum specific impulse, demonstrating the relationships between specific impulse, engine weight, tank volume and tank weight. Lastly, the optimum chamber pressure for Gross Liftoff Weight minimization was 2713 pounds per square inch as compared to 3162 for the Design, Development, Test and Evaluation cost optimization case. This chamber pressure range is close to 3000 pounds per square inch for the Space Shuttle Main Engine.

Shelton, Joey Dewayne↗