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DOE OSTI2015

SU-E-T-769: T-Test Based Prior Error Estimate and Stopping Criterion for Monte Carlo Dose Calculation in Proton Therapy

Purpose: The Monte Carlo (MC) method is a gold standard for dose calculation in radiotherapy. However, it is not a priori clear how many particles need to be simulated to achieve a given dose accuracy. Prior error estimate and stopping criterion are not well established for MC. This work aims to fill this gap. Methods: Due to the statistical nature of MC, our approach is based on one-sample t-test. We design the prior error estimate method based on the t-test, and then use this t-test based error estimate for developing a simulation stopping criterion. The three major components are as follows.First, the source particles are randomized in energy, space and angle, so that the dose deposition from a particle to the voxel is independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.).Second, a sample under consideration in the t-test is the mean value of dose deposition to the voxel by sufficiently large number of source particles. Then according to central limit theorem, the sample as the mean value of i.i.d. variables is normally distributed with the expectation equal to the true deposited dose.Third, the t-test is performed with the null hypothesis that the difference between sample expectation (the same as true deposited dose) and on-the-fly calculated mean sample dose from MC is larger than a given error threshold, in addition to which users have the freedom to specify confidence probability and region of interest in the t-test based stopping criterion. Results: The method is validated for proton dose calculation. The difference between the MC Result based on the t-test prior error estimate and the statistical Result by repeating numerous MC simulations is within 1%. Conclusion: The t-test based prior error estimate and stopping criterion are developed for MC and validated for proton dose calculation. Xiang Hong and Hao Gao were partially supported by the NSFC (#11405105), the 973 Program (#2015CB856000) and the Shanghai Pujiang Talent Program (#14PJ1404500)

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Hierarchical reconstruction of 3D well-connected porous media from 2D exemplars using statistics-informed neural network

The relationships between porous microstructures and transport properties are of fundamental importance in various scientific and engineering applications. Due to the intricacy, stochasticity and heterogeneity of porous media, reliable characterization and modeling of transport properties often require a complete dataset of internal microstructure samples. However, it is often an unbearable cost to acquire sufficient 3D digital microstructures by purely using microscopic imaging systems. Herein this paper presents a machine learning-based technique to hierarchically reconstruct 3D well-connected porous microstructures from one isotropic or several anisotropic low-cost 2D exemplar(s). To compactly characterize the large-scale microstructural features, a Gaussian image pyramid is built for each 2D exemplar. Local morphology patterns are collected from the Gaussian image pyramids, and then they serve as the training data to embed the 2D morphological statistics into feed-forward neural networks at multiple length levels. By using a specially-developed morphology integration scheme, the 3D morphological statistics at different levels can be inferred from the statistics-informed neural networks. Gibbs sampling is adopted to hierarchically reconstruct 3D microstructures by using multi-level 3D morphological statistics, where the large-scale, regional and local morphological patterns are statistically generated and successively added to the same 3D random field. The proposed method is tested on a series of porous media with distinct morphologies, and the statistical equivalence between the reconstructed and the real microstructures is systematically evaluated by comparing morphological descriptors and transport properties. The results demonstrate that the proposed 2D-to-3D microstructure reconstruction method is a universal and efficient approach to generating morphologically and physically realistic samples of porous media.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2015

Uncertainty quantification of calculated temperatures for advanced gas reactor fuel irradiation experiments

This paper presents the quantification of uncertainty of the calculated temperature data for the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) fuel irradiation experiments conducted in the Advanced Test Reactor at Idaho National Laboratory in support of the Advanced Reactor Technology Research and Development program. Recognizing uncertainties inherent in physics and thermal simulations of the AGR tests, the results of the numerical simulations are used in combination with statistical analysis methods to improve qualification of measured data. The temperature simulation data for AGR tests are also used for validation of the fission product transport and fuel performance simulation models. These crucial roles of the calculated fuel temperatures in ensuring achievement of the AGR experimental program objectives require accurate determination of the model temperature uncertainties. To quantify the uncertainty of AGR calculated temperatures, this study identifies and analyzes ABAQUS model parameters of potential importance to the AGR predicted fuel temperatures. The selection of input parameters for uncertainty quantification of the AGR calculated temperatures is based on the ranking of their influences on variation of temperature predictions. Thus, selected input parameters include those with high sensitivity and those with large uncertainty. Propagation of model parameter uncertainty and sensitivity is then used to quantify the overall uncertainty of AGR calculated temperatures. Expert judgment is used as the basis to specify the uncertainty range for selected input parameters. The input uncertainties are dynamic accounting for the effect of unplanned events and changes in thermal properties of capsule components over extended exposure to high temperature and fast neutron irradiation. The sensitivity analysis performed in this work went beyond the traditional local sensitivity. Using experimental design, analysis of pairwise interactions of model parameters was performed to establish sufficiency of the first-order (linear) expansion terms in constructing the response surface. To achieve completeness, uncertainty propagation made use of pairwise noise correlations of model parameters. Furthermore, time-dependent sensitivity over the test campaign duration was obtained using an interpolation scheme over the input parameter domain. This allows computation of uncertainty for the predicted peak fuel temperatures and the predicted graphite temperatures at TC locations over the whole AGR irradiation period.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

NASA NTRS1989

Test methods and design allowables for fibrous composites. Volume 2

Topics discussed include extreme/hostile environment testing, establishing design allowables, and property/behavior specific testing. Papers are presented on environmental effects on the high strain rate properties of graphite/epoxy composite, the low-temperature performance of short-fiber reinforced thermoplastics, the abrasive wear behavior of unidirectional and woven graphite fiber/PEEK, test methods for determining design allowables for fiber reinforced composites, and statistical methods for calculating material allowables for MIL-HDBK-17. Attention is also given to a test method to measure the response of composite materials under reversed cyclic loads, a through-the-thickness strength specimen for composites, the use of torsion tubes to measure in-plane shear properties of filament-wound composites, the influlence of test fixture design on the Iosipescu shear test for fiber composite materials, and a method for monitoring in-plane shear modulus in fatigue testing of composites.

Chamis, Christos C.↗

NASA NTRS1965

The tensile failure envelope of amorphous elastomers - effects of statistical variability and crosslink density.

Statistical variation of rupture stress and strain described by double exponental cumulative distribution of amorphous elastomers

STRAIN FIELD↗

DOE OSTI2019

Estimation of split renal function using different volumetric methods: inter- and intraindividual comparison between MRI and CT

Purpose: This study aims to determine whether contrast-enhanced (CE)-magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is comparable to CE-computed tomography (CT) for estimation of split renal function (SRF). For this purpose, two different kidney volumetry methods, the renal cortex volumetry (RCV) and modified ellipsoid volume (MELV), are compared for both acquisition types (CT vs. MRI) with regard to accuracy and reliability, subsequently referred to as RCV{sub CT}/RCV{sub MRI} and MELV{sub CT}/MELV{sub MRI}. Methods: This retrospective study included 29 patients (18 men and 11 women; mean age 62.8 ± 12.4 years) who underwent CE-MRI and CE-CT of the abdomen within a period of 3 months. Two independent readers (R1/R2) performed RCV and MELV in all datasets with corresponding semiautomated software tools. RCV was performed with datasets in the arterial phase and MELV in the venous phase. Statistics were calculated using one-way ANOVA, two-tailed Student’s t test, Pearson´s correlation, and Bland–Altman plots with p ≤ 0.05 being considered statistically significant. Results: In all datasets, SRF was almost identical for both volumetry methods with a mean difference of < 1%. Bland–Altman analysis comparing RCV in CT and MRI showed very good agreement for R1/R2. Interreader agreement was strong for RCV{sub CT} and good for RCV{sub MRI} (r = 0.89; r = 0.69). MELV{sub CT/MRI} interreader agreement was only moderate (r = 0.54; r = 0.50) with a high range of values. Intrareader agreement was excellent for all measurements, except MELV{sub MRI} which showed a high mean bias and range of values (RCV{sub CT}: r = 0.93, RCV{sub MRI}: r = 0.98, MELV{sub CT}: r = 0.89, MELV{sub MRI}: r = 0.54). Conclusion: Renal volumetric estimates of SRF are almost as accurate and reliable with CE-MRI as with CE-CT using RCV method. In distinction, the calculation of SRF using MELV was inferior to RCV with respect to accuracy and reliability. Thus, RCV method is recommended to estimate SRF, primarily using CT datasets. However, RCV with MRI datasets for kidney volumetry allows for comparable accuracy and reliability while sparing patients and healthy donors of unnecessary radiation exposure.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

NASA NTRS2020

Full Aerothermal Characterization of the 6- by 9-Foot Icing Research Tunnel (2019 Test)

A full aerothermal characterization of the NASA Glenn Icing Research Tunnel (IRT) was completed in August 2019. A mandatory maintenance period required the test entry to be separated into two phases: the first occurring in April 2019 and the second in August 2019. The hardware used during this test entry consisted of the 6-foot quick-check rake, 6-foot traversing rake, RTD array, and hot-wire rake. The 6-foot quick check rake collects static pressure, total pressure, total temperature, and flow angularity data along the centerline of the test section. The data from the 6-foot quick-check rake were used to generate test section calibration relationships for total and static pressure as well as implement statistical process control. The 6-foot traversing rake collects flow uniformity data across the test section for various flow parameters, such as static pressure, total pressure, and flow angularity. Total temperature flow uniformity data is mapped by the RTD array and is used to generate the test section calibration relationship for total temperature. The hot-wire rake measures turbulence intensity at three lateral locations and characterizes airspeed unsteadiness in the test section. The test entry resulted in updated calibration relationships and a full characterization of test section flow quality and flow uniformity in the IRT.

Wind↗

NASA NTRS1965

Analysis of empirical sound fields

Statistical analysis of empirical sound fields propagated from static test firing of large space booster power plants

NOISE ATTENUATION↗

NASA NTRS1984

Development of baseline random vibration environment criteria for Shuttle pallet payload subsystems

This paper presents a statistical evaluation of measured random vibration response data obtained from the Office of Space Science-1 (OSS-1) pallet payload. The data were measured during the acoustic test simulation (September 1980) and the ascent phase of the flight of STS-3, Orbiter 102 (launched from the Kennedy Space Center on March 22, 1982). Acoustic test efficiency factors are evaluated based on the Dynamic, Acoustic and Thermal Environments (DATE) instrumentation as the source of the measured vibration data. Test efficiency correction to test data is applied in the extrapolation of non-DATE acoustic test data to increase sample population size for improved statistical evaluation. For baseline criteria evaluation and development, data are grouped in accordance with the payload zone in which the component is mounted.

On, F. J.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Development of baseline random vibration criteria for STS pallet payloads

On, F. J.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Calibration improvements to electronically scanned pressure systems and preliminary statistical assessment

Orifice-to-orifice inconsistencies in data acquired with an electronically-scanned pressure system at the beginning of a wind tunnel experiment forced modifications to the standard, instrument calibration procedures. These modifications included a large increase in the number of calibration points which would allow a critical examination of the calibration curve-fit process, and a subsequent post-test reduction of the pressure data. Evaluation of these data has resulted in an improved functional representation of the pressure-voltage signature for electronically-scanned pressures sensors, which can reduce the errors due to calibration curve fit to under 0.10 percent of reading compared to the manufacturer specified 0.10 percent of full scale. Application of the improved calibration function allows a more rational selection of the calibration set-point pressures. These pressures should be adjusted to achieve a voltage output which matches the physical shape of the pressure-voltage signature of the sensor. This process is conducted in lieu of the more traditional approach where a calibration pressure is specified and the resulting sensor voltage is recorded. The fifteen calibrations acquired over the two-week duration of the wind tunnel test were further used to perform a preliminary, statistical assessment of the variation in the calibration process. The results allowed the estimation of the bias uncertainty for a single instrument calibration; and, they form the precursor for more extensive and more controlled studies in the laboratory.

Everhart, Joel L.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Upper-Stratospheric Ozone Trends 1979-1998

Extensive analyses of ozone observations between 1978 and 1998 measured by Dobson Umkehr, Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) I and II, and Solar Backscattered Ultraviolet (SBUV) and (SBUV)/2 indicate continued significant ozone decline throughout the extratropical upper stratosphere from 30-45 km altitude. The maximum annual linear decline of -0.8 +/- 0.2 %/yr(2sigma) occurs at 40 km and is well described in terms of a linear decline modulated by the 11-year solar variation. The minimum decline of -0.110.1% yr-1(2o) occurs at 25 km in midlatitudes, with remarkable symmetry between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres at 40 km altitude. Midlatitude upper-stratospheric zonal trends exhibit significant seasonal variation (+/- 30% in the Northern Hemisphere, +/- 40% in the Southern Hemisphere) with the most negative trends of -1.2%/yr occurring in the winter. Significant seasonal trends of -0.7 to -0.9%/yr occur at 40 km in the tropics between April and September. Subjecting the statistical models used to calculate the ozone trends to intercomparison tests on a variety of common data sets yields results that indicate the standard deviation between trends estimated by 10 different statistical models is less than 0.1%/yr in the annual-mean trend for SAGE data and less than 0.2%/yr in the most demanding conditions (seasons with irregular, sparse data) [World Meteorological Organization (WMO), 1998]. These consistent trend results between statistical models together with extensive consistency between the independent measurement-system trend observations by Dobson Umkehr, SAGE I and II, and SBUV and SBUV/2 provide a high degree of confidence in the accuracy of the declining ozone amounts reported here. Additional details of ozone trend results from 1978 to 1996 (2 years shorter than reported here) along with lower-stratospheric and tropospheric ozone trends, extensive intercomparisons to assess relative instrument drifts, and retrieval algorithm details are given by WMO [1998].

Newchurch, M. J.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Thermal shock resistance of additively manufactured alumina

The mechanical behavior and cracking patterns of thermally-shocked additively manufactured alumina were investigated. The flexural strength of test specimens that had been heated to temperatures ranging from 200°C to 1000°C and then rapidly quenched in water was determined at ambient temperature by four-point bending. Results indicated that the surface cracking patterns had a multifractal structure and that an increase in the thermal shock temperature led to an increase in the density and uniformity of the crack network. Further, the flexural strength results were analyzed with Weibull statistics, where the Weibull moduli for most of the thermal shock conditions tested were found to be statistically indistinguishable. It was also found that a significant decrease (~50%) in flexural strength occurred for heating temperatures ≥300°C. The effect of the manufacturing method on cracking patterns is discussed, as well as the implication of the material behavior for practical applications of these materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2013

Predicting objective function weights from patient anatomy in prostate IMRT treatment planning

Purpose: Intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) treatment planning typically combines multiple criteria into a single objective function by taking a weighted sum. The authors propose a statistical model that predicts objective function weights from patient anatomy for prostate IMRT treatment planning. This study provides a proof of concept for geometry-driven weight determination. Methods: A previously developed inverse optimization method (IOM) was used to generate optimal objective function weights for 24 patients using their historical treatment plans (i.e., dose distributions). These IOM weights were around 1% for each of the femoral heads, while bladder and rectum weights varied greatly between patients. A regression model was developed to predict a patient's rectum weight using the ratio of the overlap volume of the rectum and bladder with the planning target volume at a 1 cm expansion as the independent variable. The femoral head weights were fixed to 1% each and the bladder weight was calculated as one minus the rectum and femoral head weights. The model was validated using leave-one-out cross validation. Objective values and dose distributions generated through inverse planning using the predicted weights were compared to those generated using the original IOM weights, as well as an average of the IOM weights across all patients. Results: The IOM weight vectors were on average six times closer to the predicted weight vectors than to the average weight vector, usingl{sub 2} distance. Likewise, the bladder and rectum objective values achieved by the predicted weights were more similar to the objective values achieved by the IOM weights. The difference in objective value performance between the predicted and average weights was statistically significant according to a one-sided sign test. For all patients, the difference in rectum V54.3 Gy, rectum V70.0 Gy, bladder V54.3 Gy, and bladder V70.0 Gy values between the dose distributions generated by the predicted weights and IOM weights was less than 5 percentage points. Similarly, the difference in femoral head V54.3 Gy values between the two dose distributions was less than 5 percentage points for all but one patient. Conclusions: This study demonstrates a proof of concept that patient anatomy can be used to predict appropriate objective function weights for treatment planning. In the long term, such geometry-driven weights may serve as a starting point for iterative treatment plan design or may provide information about the most clinically relevant region of the Pareto surface to explore.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

NASA NTRS1993

An approach to estimate the areal rain-rate distribution from spaceborne radar by the use of multiple thresholds

Estimates of rain rate derived from a spaceborne weather radar will be most reliable over an intermediate range of values. In forming an area average of the rain rate, an alternative to the averaging of the high-resolution estimates, irrespective of their individual accuracies, is a multiple threshold approach. The method is based on the fact that the fractional area above a particular rain-rate threshold R(j) is related to the cumulative distribution of rain rates evaluated at R(j). Varying the threshold over the effective dynamic range of the radar yields the cumulative distribution function over this range. To obtain the distribution at all rain rates, a lognormal or gamma test function is selected such that the mean-square error between the test function and the measured values is minimized. Once the unknown parameters are determined, the first-order statistics of the areawide rain-rate distribution can be found. Tests of the method with data from the SPANDAR radar provide comparisons between it and the single threshold and the direct averaging approaches.

Meneghini, R.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Statistical Wind-Tunnel Experimentation Advancements for eVTOL Aircraft Aero-Propulsive Model Development

Compared to many conventional aircraft, electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) vehicle designs present greater aero-propulsive complexity and many interacting factors requiring development of novel testing and model development strategies. This paper describes several advances in statistically-rigorous experiment design methods for wind-tunnel testing of eVTOL aircraft enabling accurate aero-propulsive model development. The techniques are applied to a subscale tilt-rotor eVTOL aircraft configuration built at NASA Langley Research Center that has 24 independent control effectors. The general testing approach, leveraging design of experiments and response surface methodology, is outlined and followed by a detailed description of the experiment design and modeling approach employed for different phases of the wind-tunnel testing. A new approach for gravitational tare modeling is developed and validated, which reduces the required wind-tunnel test time by nearly 50%. A mostly automated trim envelope determination approach is formulated to rapidly determine the aircraft flight envelope to inform transition testing for aero-propulsive model development. Efficient powered-airframe characterization tests are conducted using a nested I-optimal design approach formulated in previous simulation-based testing. The collective wind-tunnel testing approach facilitates rapid characterization of eVTOL aircraft configurations and produces accurate aero-propulsive models that can be used in flight dynamics simulations.

design of experiments↗

NASA NTRS2010

Roles of Engineering Correlations in Hypersonic Entry Boundary Layer Transition Prediction

Efforts to design and operate hypersonic entry vehicles are constrained by many considerations that involve all aspects of an entry vehicle system. One of the more significant physical phenomenon that affect entry trajectory and thermal protection system design is the occurrence of boundary layer transition from a laminar to turbulent state. During the Space Shuttle Return To Flight activity following the loss of Columbia and her crew of seven, NASA's entry aerothermodynamics community implemented an engineering correlation based framework for the prediction of boundary layer transition on the Orbiter. The methodology for this implementation relies upon similar correlation techniques that have been is use for several decades. What makes the Orbiter boundary layer transition correlation implementation unique is that a statistically significant data set was acquired in multiple ground test facilities, flight data exists to assist in establishing a better correlation and the framework was founded upon state of the art chemical nonequilibrium Navier Stokes flow field simulations. Recent entry flight testing performed with the Orbiter Discovery now provides a means to validate this engineering correlation approach to higher confidence. These results only serve to reinforce the essential role that engineering correlations currently exercise in the design and operation of entry vehicles. The framework of information related to the Orbiter empirical boundary layer transition prediction capability will be utilized to establish a fresh perspective on this role, and to discuss the characteristics which are desirable in a next generation advancement. The details of the paper will review the experimental facilities and techniques that were utilized to perform the implementation of the Orbiter RTF BLT Vsn 2 prediction capability. Statistically significant results for multiple engineering correlations from a ground testing campaign will be reviewed in order to describe why only certain correlations were selected for complete implementation to support the Shuttle Program. Historical Orbiter flight data on early boundary layer transition due to protruding gap fillers will be described in relation to the selected empirical correlations. In addition, Orbiter entry flight testing results from the BLT Flight Experiment will be discussed in relation to these correlations. Applicability of such correlations to the entry design problem will be reviewed, and finally a perspective on the desirable characteristics for a next generation capability based on high fidelity physical models will be provided.

Campbell, Charles H.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Method for Validating Causal Diagrams of Human Health Risk in Space Flight

The complexity of cause-and-effect relationships between spaceflight hazards and resulting health conditions clouds understanding of the totality of human system risk in space. In response, NASA has introduced Directed Acyclic Graphs (causal diagrams) into the human systems risk management process. These diagrams allow for a common understanding of the mechanisms that lead from unique hazards of spaceflight to the health outcomes important to agencies and astronauts. However, the paucity of available biomedical data from spaceflight creates a need for methods of validating causal models that can accommodate data from spaceflight model analogs. Here we outline one approach utilizing open-access rodent bone datasets from the Ames Life Sciences Data Archive. The properties of directed acyclic graphs themselves can provide an epistemological and statistical framework for validation of a priori causal representations of human system risk in space flight. The assumed causal connections on the graph creates sets of logical implications: variables that – if the causal diagram is correct – should be correlated, as well as sets that should be conditionally independent. By testing these implied correlations and conditional independencies both statistically and heuristically, we can provide evidence for or against specific causal pathways on the causal diagram. In addition to validation of expert-generated causal diagrams, machine learning techniques can learn the most likely structure of a causal diagram from a given dataset. Comparison with and reconciliation between machine-learned causal diagrams and expert-generated diagrams is another technique for challenging assumptions and improving our understanding of causal mechanisms. Accurately representing complex causation is essential to systemic understanding of human health risks in space travel. Having a robust system of validating causal diagrams helps us arrive at more accurate representations of causal systems. This process will be integral to developing the countermeasures necessary for extended exploration of the moon and Mars.

Robert Reynolds↗