SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Estimation method”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,297 records · Page 72

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

NASA NTRS1985

Maximum Likelihood Estimation with Emphasis on Aircraft Flight Data

Accurate modeling of flexible space structures is an important field that is currently under investigation. Parameter estimation, using methods such as maximum likelihood, is one of the ways that the model can be improved. The maximum likelihood estimator has been used to extract stability and control derivatives from flight data for many years. Most of the literature on aircraft estimation concentrates on new developments and applications, assuming familiarity with basic estimation concepts. Some of these basic concepts are presented. The maximum likelihood estimator and the aircraft equations of motion that the estimator uses are briefly discussed. The basic concepts of minimization and estimation are examined for a simple computed aircraft example. The cost functions that are to be minimized during estimation are defined and discussed. Graphic representations of the cost functions are given to help illustrate the minimization process. Finally, the basic concepts are generalized, and estimation from flight data is discussed. Specific examples of estimation of structural dynamics are included. Some of the major conclusions for the computed example are also developed for the analysis of flight data.

Iliff, K. W.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Using neural network ensembles to separate ocean biogeochemical and physical drivers of phytoplankton biogeography in Earth system models

Abstract. Earth system models (ESMs) are useful tools for predicting and understanding past and future aspects of the climate system. However, the biological and physical parameters used in ESMs can have wide variations in their estimates. Even small changes in these parameters can yield unexpected results without a clear explanation of how a particular outcome was reached. The standard method for estimating ESM sensitivity is to compare spatiotemporal distributions of variables from different runs of a single ESM. However, a potential pitfall of this method is that ESM output could match observational patterns because of compensating errors. For example, if a model predicts overly weak upwelling and low nutrient concentrations, it might compensate for this by allowing phytoplankton to have a high sensitivity to nutrients. Recently, we demonstrated that neural network ensembles (NNEs) are capable of extracting relationships between predictor and target variables within ocean biogeochemical models. Being able to view the relationships between variables, along with spatiotemporal distributions, allows for a more mechanistically based examination of ESM outputs. Here, we investigated whether we could apply NNEs to help us determine why different ESMs produce different spatiotemporal distributions of phytoplankton biomass. We tested this using three cases. The first and second case used different runs of the same ESM, except that the physical circulations differed between them in the first case, while the biological equations differed between them in the second. Our results indicated that the NNEs were capable of extracting the relationships between variables for different runs of a single ESM, allowing us to distinguish between differences due to changes in circulation (which do not change relationships) from changes in biogeochemical formulation (which do change relationships). In the third case, we applied NNEs to two different ESMs. The results of the third case highlighted the capability of NNEs to contrast the apparent relationships of different ESMs and some of the challenges it presents. Although applied specifically to the ocean components of an ESM, our study demonstrates that Earth system modelers can use NNEs to separate the contributions of different components of ESMs. Specifically, this allows modelers to compare the apparent relationships across different ESMs and observational datasets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1976

Decentralization, stabilization, and estimation of large-scale linear systems

In this short paper we consider three closely related aspects of large-scale systems: decentralization, stabilization, and estimation. A method is proposed to decompose a large linear system into a number of interconnected subsystems with decentralized (scalar) inputs or outputs. The procedure is preliminary to the hierarchic stabilization and estimation of linear systems and is performed on the subsystem level. A multilevel control scheme based upon the decomposition-aggregation method is developed for stabilization of input-decentralized linear systems Local linear feedback controllers are used to stabilize each decoupled subsystem, while global linear feedback controllers are utilized to minimize the coupling effect among the subsystems. Systems stabilized by the method have a tolerance to a wide class of nonlinearities in subsystem coupling and high reliability with respect to structural perturbations. The proposed output-decentralization and stabilization schemes can be used directly to construct asymptotic state estimators for large linear systems on the subsystem level. The problem of dimensionality is resolved by constructing a number of low-order estimators, thus avoiding a design of a single estimator for the overall system.

Siljak, D. D.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Identifying snowfall elevation patterns by assimilating satellite-based snow depth retrievals

Precipitation in mountain regions is highly variable and poorly measured, posing important challenges to water resource management. Traditional methods to estimate precipitation include in-situ gauges, Doppler weather radars, satellite radars and radiometers, numerical modeling and reanalysis products. Each of these methods is unable to adequately capture complex orographic precipitation. Here, we propose a novel approach to characterize orographic snowfall over mountain regions. We use a particle batch smoother to leverage satellite information from Sentinel-1 derived snow depth retrievals and to correct various gridded precipitation products. This novel approach is tested using a simple snow model for an alpine basin located in Trentino Alto Adige, Italy. Here, we quantify the precipitation biases across the basin and found that the assimilation method (i) corrects for snowfall biases and uncertainties, (ii) leads to cumulative snowfall elevation patterns that are consistent across precipitation products, and (iii) results in overall improved basin-wide snow variables (snow depth and snow cover area) and basin streamflow estimates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2013

Ensemble Data Assimilation Without Ensembles: Methodology and Application to Ocean Data Assimilation

Two methods to estimate background error covariances for data assimilation are introduced. While both share properties with the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), they differ from it in that they do not require the integration of multiple model trajectories. Instead, all the necessary covariance information is obtained from a single model integration. The first method is referred-to as SAFE (Space Adaptive Forecast error Estimation) because it estimates error covariances from the spatial distribution of model variables within a single state vector. It can thus be thought of as sampling an ensemble in space. The second method, named FAST (Flow Adaptive error Statistics from a Time series), constructs an ensemble sampled from a moving window along a model trajectory. The underlying assumption in these methods is that forecast errors in data assimilation are primarily phase errors in space and/or time.

Data Assimilation↗

DOE OSTI2017

A Multiscale Bayesian Data Integration Approach for Mapping Air Dose Rates around the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant - 17166

This paper presents a multiscale data integration method to estimate the spatial distribution of air dose rates in the regional scale around the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant. We integrate various types of datasets, such as ground-based walk and car surveys, and airborne surveys, all of which have different scales, resolutions, spatial coverage, and accuracy. This method is based on geo-statistics to represent spatial heterogeneous structures, and also on Bayesian hierarchical models to integrate multiscale, multi-type datasets in a consistent manner. The Bayesian method allows us to quantify the uncertainty in the estimates, and to provide the confidence intervals that are critical for robust decision-making. Although this approach is primarily data-driven, it has great flexibility to include mechanistic models for representing radiation transport or other complex correlations. We demonstrate our approach using three types of datasets collected at the same time over Fukushima City, Japan: (1) coarse-resolution airborne surveys covering the entire area, (2) car surveys along major roads, and (3) walk surveys in multiple neighborhoods. Results show that the method can successfully integrate three types of datasets in a consistent manner, and create an integrated map (including the confidence intervals) of air dose rates over the domain in high resolution. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2016

A multiscale Bayesian data integration approach for mapping air dose rates around the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant

This paper presents a multiscale data integration method to estimate the spatial distribution of air dose rates in the regional scale around the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant. We integrate various types of datasets, such as ground-based walk and car surveys, and airborne surveys, all of which have different scales, resolutions, spatial coverage, and accuracy. This method is based on geostatistics to represent spatial heterogeneous structures, and also on Bayesian hierarchical models to integrate multiscale, multi-type datasets in a consistent manner. The Bayesian method allows us to quantify the uncertainty in the estimates, and to provide the confidence intervals that are critical for robust decision-making. Although this approach is primarily data-driven, it has great flexibility to include mechanistic models for representing radiation transport or other complex correlations. Here, we demonstrate our approach using three types of datasets collected at the same time over Fukushima City in Japan: (1) coarse-resolution airborne surveys covering the entire area, (2) car surveys along major roads, and (3) walk surveys in multiple neighborhoods. Results show that the method can successfully integrate three types of datasets and create an integrated map (including the confidence intervals) of air dose rates over the domain in high resolution. Moreover, this study provides us with various insights into the characteristics of each dataset, as well as radiocaesium distribution. In particular, the urban areas show high heterogeneity in the contaminant distribution due to human activities as well as large discrepancy among different surveys due to such heterogeneity.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Iterative and Self-Consistent Estimation of Degradation and Soiling Loss in PV Systems - A Case Study

In many parts of the world, soiling is a significant loss mechanism for PV energy production. Methods for accurately quantifying historical and current soiling losses are needed. Furthermore, state-of-the-art methods to estimate degradation rates based on production data do not handle soiling in a satisfactory manner. In order to accurately estimate either of these quantities, it is in many cases helpful to consider their combined effect on PV system performance. In this work we make use of the Combined Degradation and Soiling (CODS) algorithm, which iteratively decomposes time series of daily normalized energy yield into four components: a soiling ratio, a degradation trend, seasonal variations, and noise. We demonstrate the use of the model on field performance data from a utility-scale power plant in a high-soiling environment in the Middle East. We apply the algorithm to the temperature-corrected performance index of the DC power on inverter level, quantifying how soiling varies over time and through the plant. The irradiation-weighted average soiling loss in this plant is 2.3 %, with a median soiling rate of -0.086 %/day. Between the inverters in the site in study, estimated degradation rates range between -0.86 %/year and -0.15 %/year, with a mean rate of -0.48 %/year.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗

NASA NTRS1988

Estimating the signal-to-noise ratio of AVIRIS data

To make the best use of narrowband airborne visible/infrared imaging spectrometer (AVIRIS) data, an investigator needs to know the ratio of signal to random variability or noise (signal-to-noise ratio or SNR). The signal is land cover dependent and varies with both wavelength and atmospheric absorption; random noise comprises sensor noise and intrapixel variability (i.e., variability within a pixel). The three existing methods for estimating the SNR are inadequate, since typical laboratory methods inflate while dark current and image methods deflate the SNR. A new procedure is proposed called the geostatistical method. It is based on the removal of periodic noise by notch filtering in the frequency domain and the isolation of sensor noise and intrapixel variability using the semi-variogram. This procedure was applied easily and successfully to five sets of AVIRIS data from the 1987 flying season and could be applied to remotely sensed data from broadband sensors.

Curran, Paul J.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Spatially and Temporally Detailed Water and Carbon Footprints of U.S. Electricity Generation and Use

Electricity generation in the United States entails significant water usage and greenhouse gas emissions. However, accurately estimating these impacts is complex due to the intricate nature of the electric grid and the dynamic electricity mix. Existing methods to estimate the environmental consequences of electricity use often generalize across large regions, neglecting spatial and temporal variations in water usage and emissions. Consequently, electric grid dynamics, such as temporal fluctuations in renewable energy resources, are often overlooked in efforts to mitigate environmental impacts. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has initiated the development of resilient energyshed management systems, requiring detailed information on the local electricity mix and its environmental impacts. This study supports DOE's goal by incorporating geographic and temporal variations in the electricity mix of the local electric grid to better understand the environmental impacts of electricity end users. We offer hourly estimates of the U.S. electricity mix, detailing fuel types, water withdrawal intensity, and water consumption intensity for each grid balancing authority through our publicly accessible tool, the Water Integrated Mapping of Power and Carbon Tracker (Water IMPACT). While our primary focus is on evaluating water intensity factors, our dataset and programming scripts for historical and real-time analysis also include evaluations of carbon dioxide (equivalence) intensity within the same modeling framework. This integrated approach offers a comprehensive understanding of the environmental footprint associated with electricity generation and use, enabling informed decision-making to effectively reduce Scope 2 water usage and emissions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

NASA NTRS1983

A lifting surface computer code with jet-in-crossflow interference effects. Volume 1: Theoretical description

A method is proposed to combine a numerical description of a jet in a crossflow with a lifting surface panel code to calculate the jet/aerodynamic-surface interference effects on a V/STOL aircraft. An iterative technique is suggested that starts with a model for the properties of a jet/flat plate configuration and modifies these properties based on the flow field calculated for the configuration of interest. The method would estimate the pressures, forces, and moments on an aircraft out of ground effect. A first-order approximation to the method suggested is developed and applied to two simple configurations. The first-order approximation is a noniterative precedure which does not allow for interactions between multiple jets in a crossflow and also does not account for the influence of lifting surfaces on the jet properties. The jet/flat plate model utilized in the examples presented is restricted to a uniform round jet injected perpendicularly into a uniform crossflow for a range of jet-to-crossflow velocity ratios from three to ten.

Furlong, K. L.↗

NASA NTRS1960

Ground Measurements of Airplane Shock-Wave Noise at Mach Numbers to 2.0 and at Altitudes to 60,000 Feet

The intensity of shock-wave noise at the ground resulting from flights at Mach numbers to 2.0 and altitudes to 60,000 feet was measured. Meagurements near the ground track for flights of a supersonic fighter and one flight of a supersonic bomber are presented. Level cruising flight at an altitude of 60,000 feet and a Mach number of 2.0 produced sonic booms which were considered to be tolerable, and it is reasonable t o expect that cruising flight at higher altitudes will produce booms of tolerable intensity for airplanes of the size and weight of the test airplanes. The measured variation of sonic-boom intensity with altitude was in good agreement with the variation calculated by an equation given in NASA Technical Note D-48. The effect of Mach number on the ground overpressure is small between Mach numbers of 1.4 and 2.0, a result in agreement with the theory. No amplification of the shock-wave overpressures due to refraction effects was apparent near the cutoff Mach number. A method for estimating the effect of fligh-path angle on cutoff Mach number is shown. Experimental results indicate agreement with the method, since a climb maneuver produced booms of a much decreased intensity as compared with the intensity of those measured in level flight at about the same altitude and Mach number. Comparison of sound pressure levels for the fighter and bomber airp lanes indicated little effect of either airplane size or weight at an altitude of 40,000 feet.

Lina, Lindsay J.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Estimation of signal-to-noise - A new procedure applied to AVIRIS data

Curran, Paul J.↗

NASA NTRS2013

A Review of Spectral Methods for Variable Amplitude Fatigue Prediction and New Results

A comprehensive review of the available methods for estimating fatigue damage from variable amplitude loading is presented. The dependence of fatigue damage accumulation on power spectral density (psd) is investigated for random processes relevant to real structures such as in offshore or aerospace applications. Beginning with the Rayleigh (or narrow band) approximation, attempts at improved approximations or corrections to the Rayleigh approximation are examined by comparison to rainflow analysis of time histories simulated from psd functions representative of simple theoretical and real world applications. Spectral methods investigated include corrections by Wirsching and Light, Ortiz and Chen, the Dirlik formula, and the Single-Moment method, among other more recent proposed methods. Good agreement is obtained between the spectral methods and the time-domain rainflow identification for most cases, with some limitations. Guidelines are given for using the several spectral methods to increase confidence in the damage estimate.

Larsen, Curtis E.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Inverse methods for assessing ship-of-opportunity networks and estimating circulation and winds from tropical expendable bathythermograph data

Inverse methods for estimating the surface ciculation of the equatorial Pacific by combining a linear reduced-gravity shallow-water model with the Tropical Ocean-Global Atmosphere ship-of-opportunity expendable bathythermograph (TOGA SOP XBT) observing program are examined. It is demonstrated that a simple linear model of the upper circulation of the equatorial Pacific can be successfully used as a weak constraint when smoothing the TOGA SOP XBT data. A circulation is sought as the weighted least squares fit to the dynamics and the data. The solution method is an expansion in representer functions, and the generalized inverse problem is thereby reduced from a functional problem to an algebraic problem for the coefficients of the representer. A specific inverse calculation using synthetic forcing and data is presented.

Bennett, Andrew F.↗

DOE OSTI2019

Getting more from heterogeneous HIV-1 surveillance data in a high immigration country: estimation of incidence and undiagnosed population size using multiple biomarkers

Most HIV infections originate from individuals who are undiagnosed and unaware of their infection. Estimation of this quantity from surveillance data is hard because there is incomplete knowledge about (i) the time between infection and diagnosis (TI) for the general population, and (ii) the time between immigration and diagnosis for foreign-born persons. We developed a new statistical method for estimating the incidence of HIV-1 and the number of undiagnosed people living with HIV (PLHIV), based on dynamic modelling of heterogeneous HIV-1 surveillance data. The methods consist of a Bayesian non-linear mixed effects model using multiple biomarkers to estimate TI of HIV-1-positive individuals, and a novel incidence estimator which distinguishes between endogenous and exogenous infections by modelling explicitly the probability that a foreign-born person was infected either before or after immigration. The incidence estimator allows for direct calculation of the number of undiagnosed persons. The new methodology is illustrated combining heterogeneous surveillance data from Sweden between 2003 and 2015. A leave-one-out cross-validation study showed that the multiple-biomarker model was more accurate than single biomarkers (mean absolute error 1.01 vs ≥1.95). We estimate that 816 [95% credible interval (CI) 775-865] PLHIV were undiagnosed in 2015, representing a proportion of 10.8% (95% CI 10.3-11.4%) of all PLHIV. Here, the proposed methodology will enhance the utility of standard surveillance data streams and will be useful to monitor progress towards and compliance with the 90–90-90 UNAIDS target.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

Reliable thermodynamic estimators for screening caloric materials

Reversible, diffusionless, first-order solid-solid phase transitions accompanied by caloric effects are critical for applications in the solid-state cooling and heat-pumping devices. Accelerated discovery of caloric materials requires reliable but faster estimators for predictions and high-throughput screening of system-specific dominant caloric contributions. We assess reliability of the computational methods that provide thermodynamic properties in relevant solid phases at or near a phase transition. Here, we test the methods using the well-studied B2 FeRh alloy as a “fruit fly” in such a materials genome discovery, as it exhibits a metamagnetic transition which generates multicaloric (magneto-, elasto-, and baro-caloric) responses. For lattice entropy contributions, we find that the commonly-used linear-response and small-displacement phonon methods are invalid near instabilities that arise from the anharmonicity of atomic potentials, and we offer a more reliable and precise method for calculating lattice entropy at a fixed temperature. Then, we apply a set of reliable methods and estimators to the metamagnetic transition in FeRh (predicted 346 ± 12 K, observed 353 ± 1 K) and calculate the associated caloric properties, such as isothermal entropy and isentropic temperature changes.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS1985

A study of the applicability of nucleation theory to quasi-thermodynamic transitions of second and higher Ehrenfest-order

The applicability of classical nucleation theory to second (and higher) order thermodynamic transitions in the Ehrenfest sense has been investigated and expressions have been derived upon which the qualitative and quantitative success of the basic approach must ultimately depend. The expressions describe the effect of temperature undercooling, hydrostatic pressure, and tensile stress upon the critical parameters, the critical nucleus size, and critical free energy barrier, for nucleation in a thermodynamic transition of any general order. These expressions are then specialized for the case of first and second order transitions. The expressions for the case of undercooling are then used in conjunction with literature data to estimate values for the critical quantities in a system undergoing a pseudo-second order transition (the glass transition in polystyrene). Methods of estimating the interfacial energy gamma in systems undergoing a first and second order transition are also discussed.

Barker, R. E., Jr.↗