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DOE OSTI2024

A Comprehensive Stress Drop Map From Trench to Depth in the Northern Chilean Subduction Zone

We compute stress drops for earthquakes in Northern Chile recorded between 2007 and 2021. By applying two analysis techniques, (a) the spectral ratio (SR) method and (b) the spectral decomposition (SDC) method, a stress drop map for the subduction zone consisting of 51,510 stress drop values is produced. We build an extended set of empirical Green’s functions (EGF) for the SR method by systematic template matching. Outputs are used to compare with results from the SDC approach, where we apply cell-wise obtained global EGF's to compensate for the structural heterogeneity of the subduction zone. We find a good consistency of results of the two methods. The increased spatial coverage and quantity of stress drop estimates from the SDC method facilitate a consistent stress drop mapping of the different seismotectonic domains. Albeit only small differences of median stress drop, strike-perpendicular depth sections clearly reveal systematic variations, with earthquakes at different seismotectonic locations exhibiting distinct values. In particular, interface seismicity is characterized by the lowest observed median value, whereas upper plate earthquakes show noticeably higher stress drop values. Intermediate depth earthquakes show comparatively high average stress drop and a rather strong depth-dependent increase of median stress drop. Additionally, we observe spatio-temporal variability of stress drops related to the occurrence of the two megathrust earthquakes in the study region. The presented study is the first coherent large scale 3D stress drop mapping of the Northern Chilean subduction zone. It provides an important component for further detailed analysis of the physics of earthquake ruptures.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Underestimation of multi-decadal global O 2 loss due to an optimal interpolation method

Abstract. The global ocean's oxygen content has declined significantly over the past several decades and is expected to continue decreasing under global warming, with far-reaching impacts on marine ecosystems and biogeochemical cycling. Determining the oxygen trend, its spatial pattern, and uncertainties from observations is fundamental to our understanding of the changing ocean environment. This study uses a suite of CMIP6 Earth system models to evaluate the biases and uncertainties in oxygen distribution and trends due to sampling sparseness. Model outputs are sub-sampled according to the spatial and temporal distribution of the historical shipboard measurements, and the data gaps are filled by a simple optimal interpolation method using Gaussian covariance with a constant e-folding length scale. Sub-sampled results are compared to full model output, revealing the biases in global and basin-wise oxygen content trends. The simple optimal interpolation underestimates the modeled global deoxygenation trends, capturing approximately two-thirds of the full model trends. The North Atlantic and subpolar North Pacific are relatively well sampled, and the simple optimal interpolation is capable of reconstructing more than 80 % of the oxygen trend in the non-eddying CMIP models. In contrast, pronounced biases are found in the equatorial oceans and the Southern Ocean, where the sampling density is relatively low. The application of the simple optimal interpolation method to the historical dataset estimated the global oxygen loss to be 1.5 % over the past 50 years. However, the ratio of the global oxygen trend between the sub-sampled and full model output has increased the estimated loss rate in the range of 1.7 % to 3.1 % over the past 50 years, which partially overlaps with previous studies. The approach taken in this study can provide a framework for the intercomparison of different statistical gap-filling methods to estimate oxygen content trends and their uncertainties due to sampling sparseness.

Ito, Takamitsu (ORCID:000000019873099X)↗

DOE OSTI2017

Towards Improved Understanding of the Applicability of Uncertainty Forecasts in the Electric Power Industry

Around the world wind energy is starting to become a major energy provider in electricity markets, as well as participating in ancillary services markets to help maintain grid stability. The reliability of system operations and smooth integration of wind energy into electricity markets has been strongly supported by years of improvement in weather and wind power forecasting systems. Deterministic forecasts are still predominant in utility practice although truly optimal decisions and risk hedging are only possible with the adoption of uncertainty forecasts. One of the main barriers for the industrial adoption of uncertainty forecasts is the lack of understanding of its information content (e.g., its physical and statistical modeling) and standardization of uncertainty forecast products, which frequently leads to mistrust towards uncertainty forecasts and their applicability in practice. Our paper aims at improving this understanding by establishing a common terminology and reviewing the methods to determine, estimate, and communicate the uncertainty in weather and wind power forecasts. This conceptual analysis of the state of the art highlights that: (i) end-users should start to look at the forecast's properties in order to map different uncertainty representations to specific wind energy-related user requirements; (ii) a multidisciplinary team is required to foster the integration of stochastic methods in the industry sector. Furthermore, a set of recommendations for standardization and improved training of operators are provided along with examples of best practices.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2019

Numerical assessment of uncertainty and dynamic range expansion of multispectral image-based pyrometry

Temperature measurements based on spectral radiation are often limited by prior knowledge of target surface properties and detector sensitivity. Here the present work describes a multispectral pyrometry method for temperature estimation that does not require information on surface emissivity or calibration. Digital camera simulations considering a silicon-based sensor and five bandpass filters are used to create synthetic images of targets. The detector sensitivity is compensated via high dynamic range imaging technique. The effect of natural and detector noise on temperature estimates is assessed via Monte Carlo simulations. Results from a wavelength-independent model (Gray) are compared with those from the Band model (with emissivity varying between constant spectral bands). The effect of detector dynamic range and spectral position of bandpass filters is discussed. Temperatures as low as 520 K are obtained, with an overall uncertainty of the order of 10 K. The proposed method is applicable to temperature measurements using commercial-grade CMOS/CCD cameras.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2018

Variational Principle for Mass Transport

A variation principle for mass transport in solids is derived that recasts transport coefficients as minima of local thermodynamic average quantities. The result is independent of diffusion mechanisms and applies to amorphous and crystalline systems. This unifies different computational approaches for diffusion and provides a framework for the creation of new approximation methods with error estimation. It gives a different physical interpretation of the Green function. Lastly, the variational principle quantifies the accuracy of competing approaches for a nontrivial diffusion problem.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2020

Experiments at Sandia to Measure the Effect of Temperature on Critical Systems

Estimation of the uncertainty in a critical experiment attributable to uncertainties in the measured experiment temperature is done by calculating the variation of the eigenvalue of a benchmark configuration as a function of temperature. In the low-enriched water-moderated critical experiments performed at Sandia, this is done by 1) estimating the effects of changing the water temperature while holding the UO 2 fuel temperature constant, 2) estimating the effects of changing the UO 2 temperature while holding the water temperature constant, and 3) combining the two results. This assumes that the two effects are separable. The results of such an analysis are nonintuitive and need experimental verification. Critical experiments are being planned at Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia) to measure the effect of temperature on critical systems and will serve to test the methods used in estimating the temperature effects in critical experiments.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Experiments at Sandia to Measure the Effect of Temperature on Critical Systems [Slides]

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Implementation and testing of the GPT sensitivities in TRIPOLI-4

Computing the sensitivity of given reactor parameters with respect to nuclear data is mandatory in key applications such as the assessment of reactor safety or core design. In recent years, the development of Monte Carlo methods capable of estimating sensitivity coefficients based on the Standard or Generalized Perturbation Theory (SPT and GPT, respectively) has attracted intensive research efforts, especially in view of having reference golden standard simulations to be compared to faster but approximate deterministic calculations. Following our previous implementation and validation of the SPT functionalities in the Monte Carlo TRIPOLI-4, devoted to the sensitivity of the k eigenvalue, in this work we detail the development of GPT methods for ratios of reaction rates, and validate them against a few relevant benchmark results. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2019

Highly Accurate Method for Real-Time Active Power Reserve Estimation for Utility-Scale Photovoltaic Power Plants

This paper applies a robust technique for determining the available power from a curtailed utility-scale photovoltaic (PV) power plant. The proposed technique does not require deploying any additional equipment or sensors and is based only on the addition of new control logic to the existing power plant controller. Also, the proposed method is universally applicable to PV plants with any type of smart inverters and PV modules. Accurate determination of available power is important for using curtailed PV generation as a resource for various types of active power controls, such as spinning reserves and primary and secondary frequency control. For PV plants to be able to maintain the desired regulation range, the plant controller must be able to estimate the available aggregate peak power that all the plant's inverters can produce at any point in time and ensure that the control error stays within the tolerance band at all times. In this paper, we explore a highly accurate control method that uses dedicated inverters within the plant as reference units and evaluates the available aggregate peak power for the whole plant under different cloud variability conditions.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

An update to the Sandia method for creating Typical Meteorological Years from a limited pool of calendar years

Typical Meteorological Years (TMYs) are essential for the efficient evaluation of energy system performance. Ideally, 30 years of weather data are required to generate TMYs, but significantly fewer years are typically available due to practical limitations. To address this issue, an update to the Sandia method was developed, referred to as the Argonne method, to create TMYs from a limited number of years. Furthermore, this method enhances candidate diversity by systematically shifting original candidate months forward or backward by specific days, creating an expanded pool of candidates. The effectiveness of the Argonne method was validated through statistical testing, comparison of monthly average weather parameters, and numerical simulations. The results demonstrate a high probability of identifying at least one shifted month whose cumulative distribution functions of weather parameters closely align with long-term distributions. In 67 % of all comparisons, the monthly average weather parameters in TMYs generated using the Argonne method exhibit better agreement with long-term averages than TMY3. Moreover, in 74 % of the 318 building simulation cases, the Argonne method outperforms TMY3 in estimating long-term average building heating and cooling demands. Therefore, the Argonne method effectively diversifies the candidate pool and produces typical years that provide more accurate estimations of long-term averages compared to TMY3 when only a limited pool of calendar years (10 years or fewer) is available.

Building energy modeling↗

DOE OSTI2025

Field validation of dynamic mechanical torque measurements using fiber-optic strain sensors for geared wind turbines

Abstract Accurate knowledge of the mechanical loads of wind turbine gearboxes has become essential in modern, highly loaded gearbox designs, as maintaining or even improving gearbox reliability with increasing torque density demands is proving to be challenging. Unfortunately, the traditional method of measuring dynamic mechanical torque using strain gauges placed on the outer surface of a rotating shaft and transmitting the resulting signal is unsuitable for serial deployment due to technical and economic constraints. An alternative method based on fiber-optic strain sensors placed on the stationary outer surface of the gearbox ring gear has been proposed. Like shaft torsion, the radial deformation of the ring gear is proportionate to the rotor torque. Placing the sensors on a stationary component is a cost-effective alternative for serial implementation because the need for complex and expensive data transfer via wireless transmission or a slip ring is eliminated. In this paper, we present the results of an extensive field experiment conducted to evaluate the torque measurement accuracy of this novel sensing solution installed on the gearbox of a Gamesa G97 2-MW wind turbine at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s Flatirons Campus. Torque measurements derived from fiber-optic strain sensors placed on the ring gear of the planetary stage are compared to conventional torque measurements from strain gauges placed on the main shaft. Two different torque estimation data processing methods were evaluated, with the method based on operational deflection shapes providing the most accurate results with an average normalized root mean square error below 0.7% for a load revolution distribution analysis. The effect of operating conditions on the torque estimate was also investigated, and the third planet-passing operational deflection shape was found to be the least sensitive to nontorque load-related effects. The fiber-optic strain sensors’ successful operation during the complete test campaign has demonstrated a robust and accurate solution for fleet-wide enhanced gearbox remaining useful life estimation.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Field Validation of Dynamic Mechanical Torque Measurements for Geared Wind Turbines

Accurate knowledge of the mechanical loads of wind turbine gearboxes has become essential in modern, highly loaded gearbox designs, as maintaining or even improving gearbox reliability with increasing torque density demands is proving to be challenging. Unfortunately, the traditional method of measuring dynamic mechanical torque using strain gauges placed on the outer surface of a rotating shaft and transmitting the resulting signal is unsuitable for serial deployment due to technical and economic constraints. An alternative method based on fiber-optic strain sensors placed on the stationary outer surface of the gearbox ring gear has been proposed. Like shaft torsion, the radial deformation of the ring gear is proportionate to the rotor torque. Placing the sensors on a stationary component is a cost-effective alternative for serial implementation because the need for complex and expensive data transfer via wireless transmission or a slip ring is eliminated. In this paper, we present the results of an extensive field experiment conducted to evaluate the torque measurement accuracy of this novel sensing solution installed on the gearbox of a Gamesa G97 2-MW wind turbine at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Flatirons Campus. Torque measurements derived from fiber-optic strain sensors placed on the ring gear of the planetary stage are compared to conventional torque measurements from strain gauges placed on the main shaft. Two different torque estimation data processing methods were evaluated, with the method based on operational deflection shapes providing the most accurate results with an average normalized root mean square error below 0.7% for a load revolution distribution analysis. The effect of operating conditions on the torque estimate was also investigated, and the third planet-passing operational deflection shape was found to be the least sensitive to nontorque load-related effects. The fiber-optic strain sensors' successful operation during the complete test campaign has demonstrated a robust and accurate solution for fleet-wide enhanced gearbox remaining useful life estimation.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Myriad World Baseline: Global Geodemographic Estimates

The LandScan Myriad World Baseline (MWB) method produces global, residential (nighttime/home-location) gridded geodemographic estimates based on 5-year age/gender cohorts—at 30-arcsecond (≈1 km) resolution. MWB is designed to fill gaps where detailed, georeferenced survey data (e.g., Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS)) are missing or outdated, and to provide a baseline that can support human security analysis, including consequence assessment, “patterns of life” modeling, and scenario-based population futures. MWB’s workflow spatializes household-level age/gender characteristics from the GLOPOP-S dataset by conflating household and gridded expected relative wealth adapted from Global Gridded Relative Deprivation Index (GRDI), then adjusts them to a target year of interest. Age/gender estimates are then applied to harmonize lowest-administrative-level statistics with LandScan residential counts, yielding final geodemographic estimates. Two validation case studies are presented: Ghana (2021) and Tokyo/Kanagawa, Japan (2020), illustrating spatial variability in demographic cohorts and comparing MWB outputs to official gridded statistics. Results show close overall alignment relative to validation criteria including population pyramids and age-dependency ratios.

Tuccillo, Joe [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000259300943)↗

DOE OSTI2019

Real-time estimation of solar irradiation

Aspects relate to methods, systems, and computer program products for estimating future levels of solar power received at a sensor including receiving, by a processor, a first measured power value at a first time from the sensor, calculating a first value of a dynamic correction factor based on the first measured power value associated with the first time, applying the first value of the calculated dynamic correction factor to a power estimation model, generating a first power estimation value for a second time using the power estimation model, wherein the second time is later than the first time, receiving a second measured power value at the second time, and calculating a second value of a dynamic correction factor based on the second measured power value associated with the second time and the first value of the dynamic correction factor.

Dang, Hien P.↗

DOE OSTI2024

DeepUQ: Assessing the Aleatoric Uncertainties from two Deep Learning Methods

Assessing the quality of aleatoric uncertainty estimates from uncertainty quantification (UQ) deep learning methods is important in scientific contexts, where uncertainty is physically meaningful and important to characterize and interpret exactly. We systematically compare aleatoric uncertainty measured by two UQ techniques, Deep Ensembles (DE) and Deep Evidential Regression (DER). Our method focuses on both zero-dimensional (0D) and two-dimensional (2D) data, to explore how the UQ methods function for different data dimensionalities. We investigate uncertainty injected on the input and output variables and include a method to propagate uncertainty in the case of input uncertainty so that we can compare the predicted aleatoric uncertainty to the known values. We experiment with three levels of noise. The aleatoric uncertainty predicted across all models and experiments scales with the injected noise level. However, the predicted uncertainty is miscalibrated to $\rm{std}(\sigma_{\rm al})$ with the true uncertainty for half of the DE experiments and almost all of the DER experiments. The predicted uncertainty is the least accurate for both UQ methods for the 2D input uncertainty experiment and the high-noise level. While these results do not apply to more complex data, they highlight that further research on post-facto calibration for these methods would be beneficial, particularly for high-noise and high-dimensional settings.

Nevin, Rebecca↗

DOE OSTI2019

Highly Accurate Method for Real-Time Active Power Reserve Estimation for Utility-Scale PV Power Plants: Preprint

This paper applies a robust technique for determining the available power reserve from a curtailed utility-scale photovoltaic (PV) power plant. The proposed technique does not require deploying any additional equipment or sensors and is based only on the addition of new control logic to the existing power plant controller. Also, the proposed method is universally applicable to PV plants with any type of smart inverters and PV modules. Accurate determination of available power is important for using curtailed PV generation as a resource for various types of active power controls, such as spinning reserves and primary and secondary frequency control. For PV plants to be able to maintain the desired regulation range, the plant controller must be able to estimate the available aggregate peak power that all the plant's inverters can produce at any point in time and ensure that the control error stays within the tolerance band at all times. In this paper, we explore a highly accurate control method that uses dedicated inverters within the plant as reference units and evaluates the available aggregate peak power for the whole plant under different cloud variability conditions.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2015

A partially reflecting random walk on spheres algorithm for electrical impedance tomography

In this work, we develop a probabilistic estimator for the voltage-to-current map arising in electrical impedance tomography. This novel so-called partially reflecting random walk on spheres estimator enables Monte Carlo methods to compute the voltage-to-current map in an embarrassingly parallel manner, which is an important issue with regard to the corresponding inverse problem. Our method uses the well-known random walk on spheres algorithm inside subdomains where the diffusion coefficient is constant and employs replacement techniques motivated by finite difference discretization to deal with both mixed boundary conditions and interface transmission conditions. We analyze the global bias and the variance of the new estimator both theoretically and experimentally. Subsequently, the variance of the new estimator is considerably reduced via a novel control variate conditional sampling technique which yields a highly efficient hybrid forward solver coupling probabilistic and deterministic algorithms.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2018

Understanding Biases in Pre-Construction Estimates

The pre-construction energy generation of a wind farm (P50) is difficult to estimate and evaluate. This paper presents a methodology to measure the accuracy of the p50 prediction, which we call the Historical Validation Survey (HVS), for several wind farms in the continental United States. Our results indicate that there is a bias between predicted and measured energy, even when controlling for factors like grid curtailment and resource variability. We also find that our results depend on the assumptions we make during analysis, which we quantify with a sensitivity analysis. This method allows the estimation of uncertainty we have in our findings. When we account for reasonable ranges of model assumptions, we find that, in the most optimistic case, there is still a bulk -5.5% bias when estimating pre-construction energy generation. When controlling for grid curtailment this number reduces to a range of -3.5 to -4.5%.

17 WIND ENERGY↗