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NASA NTRS1972

Control theory for random systems

A survey is presented of the current knowledge available for designing and predicting the effectiveness of controllers for dynamic systems which can be modeled by ordinary differential equations. A short discussion of feedback control is followed by a description of deterministic controller design and the concept of system state. The need for more realistic disturbance models led to the use of stochastic process concepts, in particular the Gauss-Markov process. A compensator controlled system, with random forcing functions, random errors in the measurements, and random initial conditions, is treated as constituting a Gauss-Markov random process; hence the mean-square behavior of the controlled system is readily predicted. As an example, a compensator is designed for a helicopter to maintain it in hover in a gusty wind over a point on the ground.

Bryson, A. E., Jr.↗

DOE OSTI2018

Dynamic Model of Basic Oxygen Steelmaking Process Based on Multizone Reaction Kinetics: Modeling of Manganese Removal

In the earlier study, a dynamic model for the BOF process based on the multizone reaction kinetics has been developed. In the preceding part, the mechanism of manganese transfer in three reactive zones of the converter has been analyzed. The study predicts that temperature at the slag–metal reaction interface plays a major role in the Mn reaction kinetics. Further, mathematical treatments to simulate the transient rate parameters associated with each reaction interface have been developed. The model calculations of Mn removal rate obtained from different zones of the converter predicts that the first stage of the blow is dominated by the oxidation of Mn at the jet impact zone, albeit some additional Mn refining has been observed as a result of the oxidation of metal droplets in emulsion phase. The simulation result shows that the reversion of Mn from slag to metal primarily takes place at the metal droplet in the emulsion due to an increase in slag–metal interface temperature during the middle stage of blowing. In the final stage of the blow, the competition between simultaneous reactions in jet impact and emulsion zone controls the direction of mass flow of manganese. Further, the model prediction shows that the Mn refining in the emulsion is a strong function of droplet diameter and the residence time. Smaller sized droplets approach equilibrium quickly and thus contribute to a significant Mn conversion between slag and metal compared to the larger sized ones. The overall model prediction for Mn in the hot metal has been found to be in good agreement with two data sets obtained from different size converters reported in the literature.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS2006

Dependence of Microelastic-plastic Nonlinearity of Martensitic Stainless Steel on Fatigue Damage Accumulation

Self-organized substructural arrangements of dislocations formed in wavy slip metals during cyclic stress-induced fatigue produce substantial changes in the material microelastic-plastic nonlinearity, a quantitative measure of which is the nonlinearity parameter Beta extracted from acoustic harmonic generation measurements. The contributions to Beta from the substructural evolution of dislocations and crack growth for fatigued martensitic 410Cb stainless steel are calculated from the Cantrell model as a function of percent full fatigue life to fracture. A wave interaction factor f(sub WI) is introduced into the model to account experimentally for the relative volume of material fatigue damage included in the volume of material swept out by an interrogating acoustic wave. For cyclic stress-controlled loading at 551 MPa and f(sub WI) = 0.013 the model predicts a monotonic increase in Beta from dislocation substructures of almost 100 percent from the virgin state to roughly 95 percent full life. Negligible contributions from cracks are predicted in this range of fatigue life. However, over the last five percent of fatigue life the model predicts a rapid monotonic increase of Beta by several thousand percent that is dominated by crack growth. The theoretical predictions are in good agreement with experimental measurements of 410Cb stainless steel samples fatigued in uniaxial, stress-controlled cyclic loading at 551 MPa from zero to full tensile load with a measured f(sub WI) of 0.013.

Cantrell, John H.↗

DOE OSTI2011

Functional Cure of SIVagm Infection in Rhesus Macaques Results in Complete Recovery of CD4 + T Cells and Is Reverted by CD8 + Cell Depletion

Understanding the mechanism of infection control in elite controllers (EC) may shed light on the correlates of control of disease progression in HIV infection. However, limitations have prevented a clear understanding of the mechanisms of elite controlled infection, as these studies can only be performed at randomly selected late time points in infection, after control is achieved, and the access to tissues is limited. We report that SIVagm infection is elite-controlled in rhesus macaques (RMs) and therefore can be used as an animal model for EC HIV infection. A robust acute infection, with high levels of viral replication and dramatic mucosal CD4 + T cell depletion, similar to pathogenic HIV-1/SIV infections of humans and RMs, was followed by complete and durable control of SIVagm replication, defined as: undetectable VLs in blood and tissues beginning 72 to 90 days postinoculation (pi) and continuing at least 4 years; seroreversion; progressive recovery of mucosal CD4 + T cells, with complete recovery by 4 years pi; normal levels of T cell immune activation, proliferation, and apoptosis; and no disease progression. This ‘‘functional cure’’ of SIVagm infection in RMs could be reverted after 4 years of control of infection by depleting CD8 cells, which resulted in transient rebounds of VLs, thus suggesting that control may be at least in part immune mediated. Viral control was independent of MHC, partial APOBEC restriction was not involved in SIVagm control in RMs and Trim5 genotypes did not impact viral replication. This new animal model of EC lentiviral infection, in which complete control can be predicted in all cases, permits research on the early events of infection in blood and tissues, before the defining characteristics of EC are evident and when host factors are actively driving the infection towards the EC status.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Combining physics-based and data-driven models for quantitatively accurate plasma profile prediction that extrapolates well; with application to DIII-D, AUG, and ITER tokamaks

For design, scenario planning, and control, ITER and all other envisioned tokamaks rely on a variety of statistical and physics-based models to extrapolate to unseen regimes; most notably from low plasma current to high. A 'meta-learning' methodology for combining the accuracy of data-driven models with the generalizability of physics-based models is described and tested, yielding a 5–10 percent improvement in performance beyond either alone for the task of extrapolating time-dependent plasma profile prediction from low- to high- plasma current DIII-D tokamak discharges. Meanwhile, it is shown that both machine learning models extrapolated far-distribution and state-of-the-art 'physics-based' profile predictors fare worse than merely assuming plasma profiles do not change from their initial values. Finally, a variety of other mechanisms for helping data-driven models generalize—transfer learning, adding contextual information from physics simulators, and adding data from the ASDEX Upgrade tokamak—are attempted for similar extrapolation tasks but, in the methodology used in this paper, yield no significant improvement beyond simple data-driven models. Results are summarized in figures 15 and 16.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2015

Predictive Models of Li-ion Battery Lifetime

It remains an open question how best to predict real-world battery lifetime based on accelerated calendar and cycle aging data from the laboratory. Multiple degradation mechanisms due to (electro)chemical, thermal, and mechanical coupled phenomena influence Li-ion battery lifetime, each with different dependence on time, cycling and thermal environment. The standardization of life predictive models would benefit the industry by reducing test time and streamlining development of system controls.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

NASA NTRS2017

Novel Estimation of Pilot Performance Characteristics

Two mechanisms internal to the pilot that affect performance during a tracking task are: 1) Pilot equalization (i.e. lead/lag); and 2) Pilot gain (i.e. sensitivity to the error signal). For some applications McRuer's Crossover Model can be used to anticipate what equalization will be employed to control a vehicle's dynamics. McRuer also established approximate time delays associated with different types of equalization - the more cognitive processing that is required due to equalization difficulty, the larger the time delay. However, the Crossover Model does not predict what the pilot gain will be. A nonlinear pilot control technique, observed and coined by the authors as 'amplitude clipping', is shown to improve stability, performance, and reduce workload when employed with vehicle dynamics that require high lead compensation by the pilot. Combining linear and nonlinear methods a novel approach is used to measure the pilot control parameters when amplitude clipping is present, allowing precise measurement in real time of key pilot control parameters. Based on the results of an experiment which was designed to probe workload primary drivers, a method is developed that estimates pilot spare capacity from readily observable measures and is tested for generality using multi-axis flight data. This paper documents the initial steps to developing a novel, simple objective metric for assessing pilot workload and its variation over time across a wide variety of tasks. Additionally, it offers a tangible, easily implementable methodology for anticipating a pilot's operating parameters and workload, and an effective design tool. The model shows promise in being able to precisely predict the actual pilot settings and workload, and observed tolerance of pilot parameter variation over the course of operation. Finally, an approach is proposed for generating Cooper-Harper ratings based on the workload and parameter estimation methodology.

Human pilot models↗

DOE OSTI2022

Recurrent neural networks for short-term and long-term prediction of geothermal reservoirs

Accurate prediction of geothermal reservoir responses to alternative energy production scenarios is critical for optimizing the development of the underlying resources. While the conventional physics-based models offer a comprehensive prediction tool, data-driven models provide an efficient alternative to build fit-for-purpose predictive models by extracting and using the statistical patterns in the collected data to make predictions. The recurrent neural network (RNN) is a data-driven model that is commonly applied to predict time series sequences. This paper presents a variant of RNN that also utilizes the efficiency of convolutional neural networks (CNN) for the prediction of energy production from geothermal reservoirs. Specifically, a CNN–RNN architecture is developed that takes historical well controls as input (features) and their corresponding production response data as output (labels) to learn an input-output mapping that can predict the future well production responses/performance for any given future well control inputs. The model is paired with a labeling scheme to handle real field disturbances that create data gaps. In addition to the model structure, we introduce a thorough workflow for applying the model, which includes data pre-processing, feature selection, as well as different training strategies for short-term and long-term prediction. Finally, the performance and accuracy of the model are evaluated by applying it to multiple datasets, including a field reservoir model.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2011

Fusion Simulation Program Execution Plan

The overall science goal of the FSP is to develop predictive simulation capability for magnetically confined fusion plasmas at an unprecedented level of integration and fidelity. This will directly support and enable effective U.S. participation in research related to the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) and the overall mission of delivering practical fusion energy. The FSP will address a rich set of scientific issues together with experimental programs, producing validated integrated physics results. This is very well aligned with the mission of the ITER Organization to coordinate with its members the integrated modeling and control of fusion plasmas, including benchmarking and validation activities. Initial FSP research will focus on two critical areas: 1) the plasma edge and 2) whole device modeling including disruption avoidance. The first of these problems involves the narrow plasma boundary layer and its complex interactions with the plasma core and the surrounding material wall. The second requires development of a computationally tractable, but comprehensive model that describes all equilibrium and dynamic processes at a sufficient level of detail to provide useful prediction of the temporal evolution of fusion plasma experiments. The initial driver for the whole device model (WDM) will be prediction and avoidance of discharge-terminating disruptions, especially at high performance, which are a critical impediment to successful operation of machines like ITER. If disruptions prove unable to be avoided, their associated dynamics and effects will be addressed in the next phase of the FSP. The FSP plan targets the needed modeling capabilities by developing Integrated Science Applications (ISAs) specific to their needs. The Pedestal-Boundary model will include boundary magnetic topology, cross-field transport of multi-species plasmas, parallel plasma transport, neutral transport, atomic physics and interactions with the plasma wall. It will address the origins and structure of the plasma electric field, rotation, the L-H transition, and the wide variety of pedestal relaxation mechanisms. The Whole Device Model will predict the entire discharge evolution given external actuators (i.e., magnets, power supplies, heating, current drive and fueling systems) and control strategies. Based on components operating over a range of physics fidelity, the WDM will model the plasma equilibrium, plasma sources, profile evolution, linear stability and nonlinear evolution toward a disruption (but not the full disruption dynamics). The plan assumes that, as the FSP matures and demonstrates success, the program will evolve and grow, enabling additional science problems to be addressed. The next set of integration opportunities could include: 1) Simulation of disruption dynamics and their effects; 2) Prediction of core profile including 3D effects, mesoscale dynamics and integration with the edge plasma; 3) Computation of non-thermal particle distributions, self-consistent with fusion, radio frequency (RF) and neutral beam injection (NBI) sources, magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) and short-wavelength turbulence.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

NASA NTRS2001

Mapping Arid Vegetation Species Distributions in the White Mountains, Eastern California, Using AVIRIS, Topography, and Geology

Our challenge is to model plant species distributions in complex montane environments using disparate sources of data, including topography, geology, and hyperspectral data. From an ecologist's point of view, species distributions are determined by local environment and disturbance history, while spectral data are 'ancillary.' However, a remote sensor's perspective says that spectral data provide picture of what vegetation is there, topographic and geologic data are ancillary. In order to bridge the gap, all available data should be used to get the best possible prediction of species distributions using complex multivariate techniques implemented on a GIS. Vegetation reflects local climatic and nutrient conditions, both of which can be modeled, allowing predictive mapping of vegetation distributions. Geologic substrate strongly affects chemical, thermal, and physical properties of soils, while climatic conditions are determined by local topography. As elevation increases, precipitation increases and temperature decreases. Aspect, slope, and surrounding topography determine potential insolation, so that south-facing slopes are warmer and north-facing slopes cooler at a given elevation. Topographic position (ridge, slope, canyon, or meadow) and slope angle affect sediment accumulation and soil depth. These factors combine as complex environmental gradients, and underlie many features of plant distributions. Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) data, digital elevation models, digitized geologic maps, and 378 ground control points were used to predictively map species distributions in the central and southern White Mountains, along the western boundary of the Basin and Range province. Minimum Noise Fraction (MNF) bands were calculated from the visible and near-infrared AVIRIS bands, and combined with digitized geologic maps and topographic variables using Canonical Correspondence Analysis (CCA). CCA allows for modeling species 'envelopes' in multidimensional environmental space, which can then be projected across entire landscapes.

VandeVen, C.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Modeling active control of resistive wall mode with power saturation and sensor noise on HL-2M

The resistive wall mode (RWM) control on the HL-2M tokamak is simulated with the MARS-F code (Liu et al 2000 Phys. Plasmas 7 3681), aiming at quantifying control current and voltage requirements when more realistic issues are taken into account, i.e. the control power saturation and the sensor signal noise. The fluid model predicts a narrow stability region for the n = 1 RWM without magnetic feedback, in the 2D parameter space of the plasma pressure versus the toroidal flow speed. Magnetic feedback can fully stabilize the RWM on HL-2M. Without considering the voltage limitation and the sensor signal noise, it is found that plasma flow helps active control of the mode, by reducing the required critical feedback gain for both flux-to-current and flux-to-voltage control schemes. In the absence of the sensor signal noise, the lowest control voltage saturation level, below which the RWM control is lost, is found to roughly satisfy a linear relation to the plasma flow frequency, indicating that subsonic plasma flow is effective in relaxing the control power requirement for the RWM feedback stabilization. The presence of the sensor signal noise substantially modifies the feedback results. A statistical study finds that the sensor signal noise, with the standard deviation of 0.1 G on HL-2M, roughly doubles the required control voltage for successful mode control. The synergistic stabilization effect due to plasma flow is somewhat weakened by the presence of the sensor signal noise. At a given rotation, the tolerable voltage limit generally increases with increasing feedback gain due to the sensor signal noise.

Physics↗

DOE OSTI2023

How Well do Earth System Models Capture Apparent Relationships Between Phytoplankton Biomass and Environmental Variables?

Abstract As phytoplankton form the base of the marine food web, understanding the controls on their abundance is fundamental to understanding marine ecology and its sensitivity to global climate change. While many Earth System Models (ESMs) predict phytoplankton biomass, it is unclear whether they properly capture the mechanistic relationships that control this quantity in the real ocean. We used Random Forest analysis to analyze the output of 13 ESMs as well as two observational data sets. The target variable was phytoplankton carbon and the predictors included environmental parameters known to influence phytoplankton, including nutrients, light, mixed layer depth, salinity, temperature, and upwelling. We examined the following: (a) What fractions of variability in ESMs and observations can be linked to the large‐scale environmental variables simulated by ESMs? (b) What are the dominant predictors and relationships affecting phytoplankton biomass? (c) How well do ESMs simulate phytoplankton carbon and do they simulate the relationships we see in observations? About 88%–96% of the variability in observational data sets and greater than 98% in the ESMs was accounted for by environmental variables known to influence phytoplankton biomass. The dominant predictors in the observational data sets were shortwave radiation and dissolved iron, with temperature and ammonium also relatively important. All the ESMs show that shortwave radiation is the most important variable and most of them predict the right sign of sensitivity to most variables. However, the models predict that biomass reaches maximum levels at unrealistically low levels of iron and unrealistically high levels of light.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

DOE OSTI2016

SU-F-R-44: Modeling Lung SBRT Tumor Response Using Bayesian Network Averaging

Purpose: The prediction of tumor control after a patient receives lung SBRT (stereotactic body radiation therapy) has proven to be challenging, due to the complex interactions between an individual’s biology and dose-volume metrics. Many of these variables have predictive power when combined, a feature that we exploit using a graph modeling approach based on Bayesian networks. This provides a probabilistic framework that allows for accurate and visually intuitive predictive modeling. The aim of this study is to uncover possible interactions between an individual patient’s characteristics and generate a robust model capable of predicting said patient’s treatment outcome. Methods: We investigated a cohort of 32 prospective patients from multiple institutions whom had received curative SBRT to the lung. The number of patients exhibiting tumor failure was observed to be 7 (event rate of 22%). The serum concentration of 5 biomarkers previously associated with NSCLC (non-small cell lung cancer) was measured pre-treatment. A total of 21 variables were analyzed including: dose-volume metrics with BED (biologically effective dose) correction and clinical variables. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique estimated the posterior probability distribution of the potential graphical structures. The probability of tumor failure was then estimated by averaging the top 100 graphs and applying Baye’s rule. Results: The optimal Bayesian model generated throughout this study incorporated the PTV volume, the serum concentration of the biomarker EGFR (epidermal growth factor receptor) and prescription BED. This predictive model recorded an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.94(1), providing better performance compared to competing methods in other literature. Conclusion: The use of biomarkers in conjunction with dose-volume metrics allows for the generation of a robust predictive model. The preliminary results of this report demonstrate that it is possible to accurately model the prognosis of an individual lung SBRT patient’s treatment.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2017

Impact of a Regional Drought on Terrestrial Carbon Fluxes and Atmospheric Carbon: Results from a Coupled Carbon Cycle Model

Understanding the underlying processes that control the carbon cycle is key to predicting future global change. Much of the uncertainty in the magnitude and variability of the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) stems from uncertainty in terrestrial carbon fluxes, and the relative impacts of temperature and moisture variations on regional and global scales are poorly understood. Here we investigate the impact of a regional drought on terrestrial carbon fluxes and CO2 mixing ratios over North America using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Model. Results show a sequence of changes in carbon fluxes and atmospheric CO2, induced by the drought. The relative contributions of meteorological changes to the neighboring carbon dynamics are also presented. The coupled modeling approach allows a direct quantification of the impact of the regional drought on local and proximate carbon exchange at the land surface via the carbon-water feedback processes.

CO↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Comprehensive Simulation Study to Evaluate Future Vehicle Energy and Cost Reduction Potential

Under the umbrella of EERE’s Office of Sustainable Transportation, the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Vehicle Technologies Office (VTO) and Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technologies Office (HFTO) seek to develop sustainable, affordable, and efficient technologies for transportation of goods and people. Translating investments in advanced transportation component technologies and powertrains to estimate the potential for vehicle-level fuel savings is critical to understanding DOE’s impact and success in this mission For this study, Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne) simulated technologies funded by VTO and HFTO for light-duty vehicles across the following: Powertrain configurations (conventional, power-split hybrid electric vehicle, extended-range electric vehicle, battery electric drive, and fuel-cell vehicles); Vehicle classes (compact car, mid-size car, small sport utility vehicle [SUV], mid-size SUV, and pickup truck); Fuels (gasoline, diesel, natural gas, hydrogen, and battery electricity). We assessed each technology for five different timeframes: laboratory years 2015 (reference), 2020, 2025, 2030, and 2045. We assumed a delay of 5 years between laboratory year and model year (i.e., the year the technology is introduced into production). Finally, we included uncertainties for both technology performance and cost by considering two cases (note that these cases are not intended as predictions of future performance): Low case , aligned with DOE technology manager estimates of expected original equipment manufacturer (OEM) improvements based on business as usual regulatory and market environments; High case , aligned with aggressive technology advancements based on research and development (R&D) targets developed through support by VTO and HFTO. We estimated the energy and cost impact of different technologies using Autonomie (Argonne undated), a state-of-the-art vehicle system simulation tool developed by Argonne and used to assess the energy consumption, performance, and cost of multiple advanced vehicle technologies. The tool comprises a complete set of vehicle models to assess impacts across a wide range of classes (from light- to heavy-duty), powertrain configurations (from conventional to hybrid electric vehicles [HEVs], fuel cell electric vehicles [FCEVs], plug-in hybrid electric vehicles [PHEVs], and battery electric vehicles [BEVs]), components, and control strategies, including vehicle-level and component-level controls developed and calibrated using dynamometer test data. Autonomie has been used to support a wide range of studies: analyzing various component technologies, sizing powertrain components to meet different vehicle requirements, comparing the benefits of powertrain configurations, optimizing both heuristic and route-based vehicle energy control, and predicting transportation energy use when paired with a traffic modeling tool such as POLARIS. This report documents the assumptions made and the vehicle-level energy consumption benefits and associated technology costs estimated for various types of light-duty vehicles. Details regarding vehicle assumptions and simulation results are available in the spreadsheets accompanying this report.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2016

Sodium Spray Fire Simulations using CONTAIN-LMR

License applications for sodium fast reactors will include sodium fire analysis and subsequent mitigation strategies. Sodium leaks or ruptures from piping and support systems can lead to significant fires due to the reactive nature of sodium with air and water. Understanding the behavior of sodium fires is crucial for modeling and predicting accidents in sodium fast reactors. This paper describes the initial results of a control volume code, CONTAIN-LMR (CLMR), modeling effort for a sodium spray fire experiment conducted at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) in Albuquerque, New Mexico in 2010. Additional sodium spray and pool fire tests were conducted at SNL in 2009 and 2010 and will be compared to CLMR results in future papers. The purpose of this analysis was extract information from the evolution of the SNL tests to better understand how to use CLMR in future sodium fire analysis. Thus the following CLMR simulations were not completely the result of blind benchmarking study. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

NASA NTRS1986

Effects of wing modification on an aircraft's aerodynamic parameters as determined from flight data

A study of the effects of four wing-leading-edge modifications on a general aviation aircraft's stability and control parameters is presented. Flight data from the basic aircraft configuration and configurations with wing modifications are analyzed to determine each wing geometry's stability and control parameters. The parameter estimates and aerodynamic model forms are obtained using the stepwise regression and maximum likelihood techniques. The resulting parameter estimates and aerodynamic models are verified using vortex-lattice theory and by analysis of each model's ability to predict aircraft behavior. Comparisons of the stability and control derivative estimates from the basic wing and the four leading-edge modifications are accomplished so that the effects of each modification on aircraft stability and control derivatives can be determined.

Hess, R. A.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Enzyme activities predicted by metabolite concentrations and solvent capacity in the cell

Experimental measurements or computational model predictions of the post-translational regulation of enzymes needed in a metabolic pathway is a difficult problem. Consequently, regulation is mostly known only for well-studied reactions of central metabolism in various model organisms. In this study, we use two approaches to predict enzyme regulation policies and investigate the hypothesis that regulation is driven by the need to maintain the solvent capacity in the cell. The first predictive method uses a statistical thermodynamics and metabolic control theory framework while the second method is performed using a hybrid optimization–reinforcement learning approach. Efficient regulation schemes were learned from experimental data that either agree with theoretical calculations or result in a higher cell fitness using maximum useful work as a metric. As previously hypothesized, regulation is herein shown to control the concentrations of both immediate and downstream product concentrations at physiological levels. Model predictions provide the following two novel general principles: (1) the regulation itself causes the reactions to be much further from equilibrium instead of the common assumption that highly non-equilibrium reactions are the targets for regulation; and (2) the minimal regulation needed to maintain metabolite levels at physiological concentrations maximizes the free energy dissipation rate instead of preserving a specific energy charge. The resulting energy dissipation rate is an emergent property of regulation which may be represented by a high value of the adenylate energy charge. In addition, the predictions demonstrate that the amount of regulation needed can be minimized if it is applied at the beginning or branch point of a pathway, in agreement with common notions. The approach is demonstrated for three pathways in the central metabolism of E. coli (gluconeogenesis, glycolysis-tricarboxylic acid (TCA) and pentose phosphate-TCA) that each require different regulation schemes. It is shown quantitatively that hexokinase, glucose 6-phosphate dehydrogenase and glyceraldehyde phosphate dehydrogenase, all branch points of pathways, play the largest roles in regulating central metabolism.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗