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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,297 records · Page 72
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Release Timing and Duration Control the Fate of Photolytic Compounds in Stream-Hyporheic Systems

Predicting environmental fate requires an understanding of the underlying, spatiotemporally variable interaction of transport and transformation processes. Photolytic compounds, for example, interact with both time-variable photolysis and the perennially dark hyporheic zone, generating potentially unexpected dynamics that arise from time-variable reactivity. This interaction has been found to significantly impact environmental fate but is commonly oversimplified in predictive models. Our primary objective was to explore how time-variable photolysis and hyporheic storage interact across a range of photolysis rates to control the fate and transport of photolytic solutes in stream-hyporheic systems. In this study, we released a photolytic compound in a natural system at different times of day and simulated variable release timing and durations of photolytic compounds spanning half-lives ranging from about 2 min to 900 hr. To contextualize these results, we simulated five photolytic compounds with varied half-lives to systematically study the interaction between release timing, duration, and reactivity. We found that the environmental fate and transport of photolytic compounds are highly variable as a function of release timing, which controls when, where, and for how long solute is stored in the hyporheic zone or exposed to in-channel photolysis. Finally, this knowledge can be used to improve predictions for photolytic compounds or assess potential impacts for an anticipated discharge or treatment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Model form and sensitivity analysis of CALPHAD-based nucleation models in b-stabilized Ti alloys

Accurate prediction of α-phase nucleation and growth in β-stabilized titanium alloys is crucial for designing heat treatments to optimize mechanical properties in additively manufactured lightweight components. Ideally, predictions of nucleation and growth would incorporate both top-down observations of past experimental heat treatments and bottom-up modeling of phase transformations; however, the appropriate method of combining these information sources is not self-evident. Combining top-down and bottom-up information requires a unified form of model that can connect between spatiotemporal scales, as well as sets of fitting parameters that can be identified by each data source. The selection of which parameters to fit to which data source can be made based on expert opinion, or by performing a sensitivity analysis. In solid-solid nucleation, direct observation of the nucleation and growth process is challenging. Most data on the heat treatment-controlled phase transformations are not in-situ. To predict the process and outcome of the nucleation, growth and coarsening of precipitates, theoretical models of the nucleation pathway are used to bridge the gap. Many sources of uncertainty affect the modeling of this nucleation process. It can be influenced by small variations in the thermomechanical processing history, chemical composition, and initial microstructure. If molecular dynamics (MD) simulations are used to determine thermodynamic quantities and inform CALPHAD modeling, additional uncertainty can be introduced and accounted for using Bayesian methods. Top-down uncertainties require additional steps to quantify. The influence of nucleation model form on the sensitivity of predictions to input parameters and physical conditions is the focus of this study. Classical nucleation theory (CNT) allows modeling to formulate the nucleation as homogeneous or, more commonly, heterogeneous. Non-classical nucleation models are also increasingly explored as a means of reconciling top-down and bottom-up data. In this study, the sensitivity of the intragranular nucleation of α in a β-annealed, slow-cooled aging (BASCA) heat treatment of β-stabilized Ti5553 alloy is explored using CNT and both heterogeneous and homogeneous assumptions. The Kampmann-Wagner Numerical model of precipitate nucleation and growth is employed. Using open-source tools (pyCalphad and thermodynamic modeling of TiMo as a surrogate system, a sensitivity analysis is performed to measure variations in key parameters, including chemical driving force, interfacial energy, and diffusivity, as they relate to predictions of precipitate number density. The inclusion of top-down and bottom-up data in selection of nucleation model form is discussed.

Rodriguez Negron, A. M.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Integrating Multi-Source Data for Bi-Level Traffic Simulator Calibration: A Literature Review and Highway Case Study

Traffic simulation serves as a powerful tool for pre-evaluating policies and technologies. In this context, simulation-based Dynamic traffic assignment (DTA) models are capable of capturing traffic dynamics. They are well-known as critical tools in controlling and predicting traffic situations. The reliability of simulation results heavily depends on the calibration process. Most studies in the literature formulate and calibrate simulators based on a single source of collected data or multiple data sets with the same spatiotemporal characteristics. However, in practice, traffic data is collected by various tools with usually different spatial and temporal resolutions. This study introduces a novel approach to taking into account diverse input data from a variety of sources. An iterative bi-level solution is proposed. to equally treat traffic flow and speed data. The upper level solves flow calibration with the exact solution method, and the lower level calibrates the speed with the simultaneous perturbation stochastic approximation (SPSA) algorithm. Subsequently, the effectiveness of the proposed model is investigated using data from a six-mile section of Nashville's I-24 highway in Tennessee. The results demonstrate that our proposed model creates an effective feedback loop between the optimizer and the simulator for calibrating flow and speed to reduce the error between simulated and real data.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2017

Power peaking with small modular reactors to support deep penetration of renewable energy sources - 192

As inherently intermittent sources of renewable energy more fully penetrate the US grid, peaking power is largely being supplied by carbon-emitting natural gas turbines. Significant greenhouse gas emissions can be avoided if these plants are replaced with carbon-neutral nuclear facilities to provide peaking power to complement renewable generation and meet overall power demand. There is a great deal of previous work regarding reactor power shaping with control rod movement for both currently operating nuclear power plants and proposed plants, but the literature on load-following to meet less predictable, more rapidly varying power demand is less comprehensive. We have chosen the Westinghouse IRIS integral PWR as our candidate for modeling, simulation, and control studies. A nodal model of the IRIS integral PWR, partially adapted from a MATLAB/Simulink model constructed by prior students at the University of Tennessee in Knoxville, has been constructed in Modelica. Currently the model includes the reactor vessel and steam generator system and simple assumptions for the balance of plant. The control scheme for the load-following operation of an IRIS integral PWR model would ultimately lead to the development of real operational mechanisms and principles in a grid with significant renewables capacity. In the future the model will be integrated with sophisticated grid and hybrid energy systems. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2017

The Mira-Titan Universe. II. Matter Power Spectrum Emulation

We introduce a new cosmic emulator for the matter power spectrum covering eight cosmological parameters. Targeted at optical surveys, the emulator provides accurate predictions out to a wavenumber k ~ 5Mpc -1 and redshift z ≤ 2. Besides covering the standard set of CDM parameters, massive neutrinos and a dynamical dark energy of state are included. The emulator is built on a sample set of 36 cosmological models, carefully chosen to provide accurate predictions over the wide and large parameter space. For each model, we have performed a high-resolution simulation, augmented with sixteen medium-resolution simulations and TimeRG perturbation theory results to provide accurate coverage of a wide k-range; the dataset generated as part of this project is more than 1.2Pbyte. With the current set of simulated models, we achieve an accuracy of approximately 4%. Because the sampling approach used here has established convergence and error-control properties, follow-on results with more than a hundred cosmological models will soon achieve ~1% accuracy. We compare our approach with other prediction schemes that are based on halo model ideas and remapping approaches. The new emulator code is publicly available.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Injection Parameters That Promote Branching of Hydraulic Cracks

Fluid injection into rock formations can either produce complex branched hydraulic fractures, create simple planar fractures, or be dominated by porous diffusion. Currently, the optimum injection parameters to create branched fractures are unknown. We conducted repeatable hydraulic fracturing experiments using analog-rock samples with controlled heterogeneity to quantify the fluid parameters that promote fracture branching. A large range of injection rates and fluid viscosities were used to investigate their effects on induced fracture patterns. Paired with a simple analytical model, our results identify the threshold at which fracture transitions from an isolated planar crack to branched cracks when closed natural fractures exist. These results demonstrate that this transition can be controlled by injection rate and fluid viscosity. In relation to the field practices, the present model predicts slickwater and lower viscosity fluid injections promote fracture branching, with the Marcellus shale used as an example.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Understanding plasma turbulence through exact coherent structures

Plasma turbulence is a key challenge in understanding transport phenomena in magnetically confined plasmas. This work presents a generalized framework to analyze plasma turbulence that utilizes periodic orbit theory. In periodic orbit theory, doubly periodic solutions (coherent structures) of the governing equation(s) serve as building blocks of the considered turbulent dynamics. To illustrate the concept and method, the particularly simple Kuramoto–Sivashinsky (referred to here as LMRT for the original authors: LaQuey, Mahajan, Rutherford, and Tang) trapped-ion mode toy model is used. By applying numerical optimization techniques to the LMRT equation, we extract coherent spacetime patterns that represent the library of allowable fundamental structures of the equation. These structures provide a framework to systematically describe turbulence as a composition of recurrent solutions, revealing an underlying order within chaotic plasma motion. Although illustrated here using the simplified LMRT model for clarity, this framework provides a general strategy that can be extended to more complex and realistic models of plasma turbulence, including gyrokinetic systems. This offers a new method for predicting and potentially controlling transport processes in fusion plasmas by providing a bridge between nonlinear dynamical systems theory and plasma physics in the form of a generalized framework with which to analyze and understand spatially extended nonlinear partial differential equations.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Multiphysics Modeling of Hydrokinetic Turbine Energy Conversion System

Hydrokinetic turbines (HKTs) hold great promise as a renewable energy source, but high maintenance costs and limited energy output hinder their widespread adoption. The lack of comprehensive research on HKT drivetrain designs creates a knowledge gap in enhancing generation efficiency and cost reduction. A model of the HKT system with a focus on electric drivetrains and power converters is required to address this knowledge gap. This paper first introduces a MATLAB-averaged model integrating electrical-mechanical-thermal domains and aging behaviors within multi-time frames. Then a PLECS model, which incorporates maximum power point tracking and dq reference framed control for AC-DC-AC power converters, is enriched by a dynamic thermal model to predict fast transients accurately. These models optimize the design at the component level, resulting in improved integrated system performance. Furthermore, the validation of the models is carried out through hardware experiments for the averaged model and hardware-in-the-loop testing for the dynamic model.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Knowledge-Informed Uncertainty-Aware Machine Learning for Time Series Forecasting of Dynamical Engineered Systems

The high complexity and multiscale nature of many engineered systems—such as those in nuclear power plants—make representing and forecasting their dynamic behavior challenging. Physics-based models can be overly complex and computationally intractable, whereas machine learning (ML) tools are often data-hungry and prone to unphysical solutions. This study proposes a knowledge-informed ML-aided hybrid residual modeling approach that offers accurate and efficient time series forecasting for the operation of dynamical engineered systems. Hybrid residual modeling entails a baseline solution from domain knowledge and known physics expressions about the system dynamics integrated with an ML model to capture undiscovered information from the mismatch (i.e., residuals) between true states from measurements and baseline-predicted outputs. This study further quantifies the ML model uncertainty to provide trustworthy solutions. Real-time operational data from thermal-hydraulic flow loops of the cryogenic moderator system in Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s Spallation Neutron Source facility were used to demonstrate the potential of knowledge-informed uncertainty-aware ML in real-world applications. The state variables of the cryogenic helium loop were modeled with (1) first principles–based system identification (sysID), (2) long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network, and (3) hybrid sysID (baseline) + LSTM (residual). The superior predictive capability of the sysID+LSTM model versus stand-alone sysID and LSTM is confirmed by average performance metrics and individual data points across different prediction horizons. By creating a robust representation of the underlying physical system, the widely applicable hybrid residual modeling approach will enable the future development of digital twins for performance prediction, prognostics, and operation control.

Zhao, Xingang↗
DOE OSTI2021

A quantitative model used to compare within-host SARS-CoV-2, MERS-CoV, and SARS-CoV dynamics provides insights into the pathogenesis and treatment of SARS-CoV-2

The scientific community is focused on developing antiviral therapies to mitigate the impacts of the ongoing novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak. This will be facilitated by improved understanding of viral dynamics within infected hosts. Here, using a mathematical model in combination with published viral load data, we compare within-host viral dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 with analogous dynamics of MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV. Our quantitative analyses using a mathematical model revealed that the within-host reproduction number at symptom onset of SARS-CoV-2 was statistically significantly larger than that of MERS-CoV and similar to that of SARS-CoV. In addition, the time from symptom onset to the viral load peak for SARS-CoV-2 infection was shorter than those of MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV. These findings suggest the difficulty of controlling SARS-CoV-2 infection by antivirals. We further used the viral dynamics model to predict the efficacy of potential antiviral drugs that have different modes of action. The efficacy was measured by the reduction in the viral load area under the curve (AUC). Our results indicate that therapies that block de novo infection or virus production are likely to be effective if and only if initiated before the viral load peak (which appears 2–3 days after symptom onset), but therapies that promote cytotoxicity of infected cells are likely to have effects with less sensitivity to the timing of treatment initiation. Furthermore, combining a therapy that promotes cytotoxicity and one that blocks de novo infection or virus production synergistically reduces the AUC with early treatment. Our unique modeling approach provides insights into the pathogenesis of SARS-CoV-2 and may be useful for development of antiviral therapies.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

Phosphorylation Site Dynamics of Early T-cell Receptor Signaling

In adaptive immune responses, T-cell receptor (TCR) signaling impacts multiple cellular processes and results in T-cell differentiation, proliferation, and cytokine production. Although individual protein–protein interactions and phosphorylation events have been studied extensively, we lack a systems-level understanding of how these components cooperate to control signaling dynamics, especially during the crucial first seconds of stimulation. Here, we used quantitative proteomics to characterize reshaping of the T-cell phosphoproteome in response to TCR/CD28 co-stimulation, and found that diverse dynamic patterns emerge within seconds. We detected phosphorylation dynamics as early as 5 s and observed widespread regulation of key TCR signaling proteins by 30 s. Development of a computational model pointed to the presence of novel regulatory mechanisms controlling phosphorylation of sites with central roles in TCR signaling. The model was used to generate predictions suggesting unexpected roles for the phosphatase PTPN6 (SHP-1) and shortcut recruitment of the actin regulator WAS. Predictions were validated experimentally. This integration of proteomics and modeling illustrates a novel, generalizable framework for solidifying quantitative understanding of a signaling network and for elucidating missing links.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Koopman-based Differentiable Predictive Control for the Dynamics-Aware Economic Dispatch Problem

The dynamics-aware economic dispatch (DED) problem embeds low-level generator dynamics and operational constraints to enable near real-time scheduling of generation units in a power network. DED produces a more dynamic supervisory control policy than traditional economic dispatch (T-ED) that reduces overall generation costs. However, the incorporation of differential equations that govern the system dynamics makes DED an optimization problem that is computationally prohibitive to solve. In this work, we present a new data-driven approach based on differentiable programming to efficiently obtain offline parametric solutions to the underlying DED problem. In particular, we employ the recently proposed differentiable predictive control (DPC) for offline learning of explicit neural control policies based on identified Koopman operator (KO) model of the system dynamics. We demonstrate the high solution quality and five orders of magnitude computational-time savings of the DPC method over the original optimization-based DED approach on a 9-bus test power grid network.

King, Ethan↗
DOE OSTI2019

Bayesian inference and predictive performance of soil respiration models in the presence of model discrepancy

Bayesian inference of microbial soil respiration models is often based on the assumptions that the residuals are independent (i.e., no temporal or spatial correlation), identically distributed (i.e., Gaussian noise), and have constant variance (i.e., homoscedastic). In the presence of model discrepancy, as no model is perfect, this study shows that these assumptions are generally invalid in soil respiration modeling such that residuals have high temporal correlation, an increasing variance with increasing magnitude of CO 2 efflux, and non-Gaussian distribution. Relaxing these three assumptions stepwise results in eight data models. Data models are the basis of formulating likelihood functions of Bayesian inference. This study presents a systematic and comprehensive investigation of the impacts of data model selection on Bayesian inference and predictive performance. We use three mechanistic soil respiration models with different levels of model fidelity (i.e., model discrepancy) with respect to the number of carbon pools and the explicit representations of soil moisture controls on carbon degradation; therefore, we have different levels of model complexity with respect to the number of model parameters. The study shows that data models have substantial impacts on Bayesian inference and predictive performance of the soil respiration models such that the following points are true: (i) the level of complexity of the best model is generally justified by the cross-validation results for different data models; (ii) not accounting for heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation might not necessarily result in biased parameter estimates or predictions, but will definitely underestimate uncertainty; (iii) using a non-Gaussian data model improves the parameter estimates and the predictive performance; and (iv) accounting for autocorrelation only or joint inversion of correlation and heteroscedasticity can be problematic and requires special treatment. Although the conclusions of this study are empirical, the analysis may provide insights for selecting appropriate data models for soil respiration modeling.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Remote Aerial Inspection Vehicle Design and Evaluation - 18428

This work details the system integration of an aerial vehicle with advanced capabilities for precise inspection in confined, unstructured environments. High levels of uncertainty and varying environmental conditions are significant challenges that degrade the performance of robot subsystems, including state estimation and navigation. The methods presented in this paper outline three methodologies to minimize uncertainty and maintain fast, safe navigation in cluttered, enclosed environments: (i) a state estimation framework that performs sensor fusion of laser odometry and localization using an Unscented Kalman Filter (ii) Robust Experience-driven Predictive Control, an adaptive control strategy to bound state uncertainty and guarantee safety in the presence of model perturbations (iii) an adaptive teleoperation scheme to generate smooth control inputs and infer user intent for an enhanced teleoperation interface. These methodologies are evaluated individually and implemented on a micro-aerial vehicle for testing with varying levels of noise and state uncertainty representing the conditions within the target domain. (authors)

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2026

Validation of an integrated modeling framework for investigating 3D plasma responses in tokamak plasmas

As contemporary experimental tokamaks are pushed toward reactor-relevant operation, they provide essential testbeds for demonstrating and exploring ELM control strategies for deployment in future fusion pilot plants. Accurate predictions of full plasma responses are essential to guide and optimize these demonstrations. This paper introduces and validates an integrated modeling framework over a historical range of DIII-D operational space. The integrated modeling framework uses only scalar plasma parameters and optional reference boundary to self-consistently and flexibly scan through tokamak operational space and estimate the corresponding ELM-suppression relevant plasma response over 3D coil phase space. The framework generates tightly converged equilibria that satisfy a target set of plasma parameters (I p , β N , l i ), with kinetic profiles constrained by an EPED(NN)-computed pedestal and empirical core model. The plasma response of these modeled equilibria is calculated with GPEC. Validated against 55 distinct DIII-D equilibria, the framework consistently reproduces experimentally constrained equilibrium pressure, q, and other representative profiles using the time-varying information from only evolving scalar plasma parameters; plasma response validation is performed for the n=3 perturbation. In particular, the plasma response of a DIII-D discharge scanning q 95 in search of ELM suppression windows is quantitatively reproduced. By accurately reproducing experimental equilibria and plasma responses across wide parameter variation, the framework supports potential for synthetic parameter scans in key operational, stability, and plasma response dimensions to investigate RMP ELM-suppression experiments and inform predictive RMP scenario optimization.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Flash flourishing of Northern Hemisphere vegetation and its drivers

Rapid surges in vegetation growth—defined by thresholds in growth rate and duration—are critical yet understudied indicators of ecosystem responses to environmental change. Here, we investigate spatiotemporal patterns of such abrupt, short-lived flash flourishing events across the northern extratropical latitudes (NEL) from 2003 to 2022. We find more frequent occurrence of flash flourishing events at high latitudes (≥45° N), where their incidence is 1.6 times higher than at mid-latitudes. Moreover, there is an increasing tendency in frequency, duration, and intensity of flash flourishing events over the past two decades, alongside consistent rises in vegetation indices across onset, post-onset, and entire phases. Model simulations attribute these multiyear increases primarily to elevated atmospheric CO 2 , while temperature and radiation predominantly control phase-specific variability, with onset traits strongly predicting subsequent phenological responses. Together, these findings identify the patterns and drivers of NEL flash flourishing and highlight their large-scale impacts on ecosystem dynamics, offering critical insights for model improvement and the assessment of ecological shifts.

Kong, Xiangxu [Nanjing University of Information S↗
DOE OSTI2014

Appending High-Resolution Elevation Data to GPS Speed Traces for Vehicle Energy Modeling and Simulation

Accurate and reliable global positioning system (GPS)-based vehicle use data are highly valuable for many transportation, analysis, and automotive considerations. Model-based design, real-world fuel economy analysis, and the growing field of autonomous and connected technologies (including predictive powertrain control and self-driving cars) all have a vested interest in high-fidelity estimation of powertrain loads and vehicle usage profiles. Unfortunately, road grade can be a difficult property to extract from GPS data with consistency. In this report, we present a methodology for appending high-resolution elevation data to GPS speed traces via a static digital elevation model. Anomalous data points in the digital elevation model are addressed during a filtration/smoothing routine, resulting in an elevation profile that can be used to calculate road grade. This process is evaluated against a large, commercially available height/slope dataset from the Navteq/Nokia/HERE Advanced Driver Assistance Systems product. Results will show good agreement with the Advanced Driver Assistance Systems data in the ability to estimate road grade between any two consecutive points in the contiguous United States.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Development of a Discrepancy Checker for the Digital Twin in a Supervisory Control System for a Thermal Energy Delivery System

Defined as a virtual representation of a physical object, process, or service, and used to support real-world decision-making, a digital twin (DT) can be utilized to combine classical and novel frameworks in sensors, state predictions, and multi-input/multi-output systems, and to enable optimal autonomous operations. However, a DT’s usefulness largely depends on its ability to adequately mirror the state of its physical counterpart, and this adequacy should be reflected by the level of uncertainty in the underlying simulation models when estimating and predicting quantities of interest (QOIs). Moreover, simulation models in a DT may involve multiple fidelities of representations—ranging from physics-based models to data-driven ones—but classical uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods struggle to handle numerous uncertainty sources, nor are they designed for real-time applications. This work presents a UQ-based discrepancy checking and diagnosis tool for a DT-based supervisory control system applied to a thermal energy delivery system (TEDS) at Idaho National Laboratory. The discrepancy checker was developed using metadata from an automated DT development process, and these metadata included different combinations of physical model forms and model parameters, training data and hyperparameters for surrogate models, and design parameters for supervisory control systems. Next, correlations between the uncertainty results and the metadata were established and then applied to the DT operations. The discrepancy checker evaluates the discrepancies between model predictions from virtual and sensor measurements and backtraces them to the corresponding major sources of uncertainty. The discrepancy checker showed reasonable performance in detecting discrepancies and diagnosing sources of uncertainty in testing scenarios.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗