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At least 1,297 records · Page 72

Model complexity and choice of model approaches for practical simulations of CO 2 injection, migration, leakage and long-term fate

This report documents the accomplishments achieved during the project titled “Model complexity and choice of model approaches for practical simulations of CO 2 injection,migration, leakage and long-term fate” funded by the US Department of Energy, Office of Fossil Energy. The objective of the project was to investigate modeling approaches of various levels of complexity relevant to geologic carbon storage (GCS) modeling with the goal to establish guidelines on choice of modeling approach.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) Accident Tolerant Fuels High Impact Problem: Coordinate Multiscale U 3 Si 2 Modeling

Since the events at the Fukushima-Daiichi nuclear power plant in March 2011 significant research has unfolded at national laboratories, universities and other institutions into alternative materials that have potential enhanced accident tolerance when compared to traditional \uo~fuel zircaloy clad fuel rods. One of the potential replacement fuels is uranium silicide (\usi) for its higher thermal conductivity and uranium density. The lower melting temperature is of potential concern during postulated accident conditions. Another disadvantage for \usi~ is the lack of experimental data under power reactor conditions. Due to the aggressive development schedule for inserting some of the potential materials into lead test assemblies or rods by 2022~\cite{bragg-sitton_2014} multiscale multiphysics modeling approaches have been used to provide insight into these materials. \\ \noindent The purpose of this letter report is to highlight the multiscale modeling effort for \usi~fuel as part of the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) Accident Tolerant Fuel (ATF) High Impact Problem (HIP). This fiscal year two new models for \usi~fuel have been incorporated into the BISON fuel performance code~\cite{Williamson2012} based upon lower length scale simulations using the GRASS-SST rate theory code. The models are briefly described in the following sections.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Model comparisons of the reactive burn model SURF in three ASC codes

A study of the SURF reactive burn model was performed in FLAG, PAGOSA and XRAGE. In this study, three different shock-to-detonation transition experiments were modeled in each code. All three codes produced similar model results for all the experiments modeled and at all resolutions. Buildup-to-detonation time, particle velocities and resolution dependence of the models was notably similar between the codes. Given the current PBX 9502 equations of state and SURF calibrations, each code is equally capable of predicting the correct detonation time and distance when impacted by a 1D impactor at pressures ranging from 10-16 GPa, as long as the resolution of the mesh is not too coarse.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Application of Bayesian Model Selection for Metal Yield Models using ALEGRA and Dakota

This report introduces the concepts of Bayesian model selection, which provides a systematic means of calibrating and selecting an optimal model to represent a phenomenon. This has many potential applications, including for comparing constitutive models. The ideas described herein are applied to a model selection problem between different yield models for hardened steel under extreme loading conditions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A modular biogeochemical modeling suite for next-generation ocean models (Final Report)

The Marine Biogeochemistry Library (MARBL) is a self-contained implementation of ocean biogeochemistry suitable for incorporation in Earth system models. The default configuration of MARBL represents multiple nutrient co-limitation (N, P, Si, and Fe), includes three explicit phytoplankton functional groups (diatoms, diazotrophs, and pico/nano phytoplankton), and one implicit group (calcifiers); there is one zooplankton group. MARBL includes fully prognostic carbonate chemistry and simulates sinking particulate organic matter implicitly, subject to ballasting by mineral dust, biogenic mineral carbonate and opal. MARBL represents subgrid-scale variations in light, variable C:P stoichiometry, semi-labile and refractory dissolved organic material pools, prognostic oceanic emission of ammonia, and an explicit ligand tracer that complexes iron. MARBL is fully runtime-configurable, and is flexible enough to accommodate a variable number of plankton functional types and ecosystem configurations. Critically, MARBL is implemented to be independent of any particular ocean general circulation model (OGCM); it is a standalone library that interfaces with an OGCM's via an explicit "driver" layer. MARBL can thus be coupled to multiple OGCM's, enabling efficient maintenance, development, and cross-model inter-comparison. MARBL is the ocean biogeochemistry component for the Community Earth System Model and the DOE’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

BISON BWR Fuel Modeling Capability: Material Models (FY2020)

Until this year the BISON fuel performance code has been developed primarily for pressurized water reactor (PWR), accident tolerant fuel (ATF), and advanced reactor (e.g., tri-structural isotropic (TRISO), metallic) analyses. The main focus of this work is to develop and document required material models that would aid predicting cladding failure with a specific hydride distribution to be investigated for boiling water reactor (BWR) applications in the next fiscal year. In terms of materials, the primary differences between a BWR and PWR is the use of gadolinia doping of the UO 2 fuel, the use of Zircaloy-2 for the cladding, and the addition of a liner on the inner surface of the cladding for improved pellet-clad mechanical interaction (PCMI)performance. The liner is typically made of pure zirconium or a lower tin content zirconium alloy (e.g. Zr-0.3%Sn). This work details the development and documentation of material and behavioral models for BWR analysis such as the addition of material and behavior models for gadolinia doped UO 2 , pure zirconium, Zr-0.3%Sn, and Zircaloy-2 as well as the ease-of-use additions to allow internal meshing capabilities to include liners. Another important aspect affecting cladding performance is hydrogen diffusion and hydride precipitation in the cladding. A model was added previously for non-lined, homogeneous claddings. In this work, instructions are provided on how to apply the model to BWR liner cladding. Representative experimental values are provided for the hydrogen diffusion parameters and precipitation-dissolution kinetics for typical liner materials of interest.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

FECM/NETL CO 2 Transport Cost Model (2022): Model Overview [Slides]

The FECM/NETL CO 2 Transport Cost Model (CO 2 _T_COM) is an Excel spreadsheet model that calculates the cost of transporting CO 2 from the beginning to the end of a pipeline. This document provides an overview of the model. This document is intended to provide a user with a briefer description of the model and how to use the model than the user’s manual.

42 ENGINEERING↗

The Schwarz Alternating Method for the Seamless Coupling of Nonlinear Reduced Order Models and Full Order Models

Projection-based model order reduction allows for the parsimonious representation of full order models (FOMs), typically obtained through the discretization of a set of partial differential equations (PDEs) using conventional techniques (e.g., finite element, finite volume, finite difference methods) where the discretization may contain a very large number of degrees of freedom. As a result of this more compact representation, the resulting projection-based reduced order models (ROMs) can achieve considerable computational speedups, which are especially useful in real-time or multi-query analyses. One known deficiency of projection-based ROMs is that they can suffer from a lack of robustness, stability and accuracy, especially in the predictive regime, which ultimately limits their useful application. Another research gap that has prevented the widespread adoption of ROMs within the modeling and simulation community is the lack of theoretical and algorithmic foundations necessary for the “plug-and-play” integration of these models into existing multi-scale and multi-physics frameworks. This paper describes a new methodology that has the potential to address both of the aforementioned deficiencies by coupling projection-based ROMs with each other as well as with conventional FOMs by means of the Schwarz alternating method [41]. Leveraging recent work that adapted the Schwarz alternating method to enable consistent and concurrent multiscale coupling of finite element FOMs in solid mechanics [35, 36], we present a new extension of the Schwarz framework that enables FOM-ROM and ROM-ROM coupling, following a domain decomposition of the physical geometry on which a PDE is posed. In order to maintain efficiency and achieve computation speed-ups, we employ hyper-reduction via the Energy-Conserving Sampling and Weighting (ECSW) approach [13]. We evaluate the proposed coupling approach in the reproductive as well as in the predictive regime on a canonical test case that involves the dynamic propagation of a traveling wave in a nonlinear hyper-elastic material.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Integrated Model of Models for Global Flood Alerting

A dramatic increase in frequency of minor to major flooding since 2000 has caused significant economic losses across the world. To mitigate and recover from these losses, actions have been taken to build resilient communities and infrastructures, specifically, by providing situational awareness in near real-time about flood impacts to enhance response and recovery efforts. Several hydrologic and hydraulic flood models are available at various spatial and temporal resolutions to forecast flood events at regional to global scale. Given the global coverage of two operational flood models – GloFAS (Global Flood Awareness System) and GFMS (Global Flood Monitoring System), the purpose of this project is to implement a Model of Models (MoM) approach to integrate the outputs from these two models to classify flood severity at watershed level worldwide, and send alerts based on severity similar to the USGS PAGER (used for severity alerting and impact analysis for earthquakes) to flood impacted communities. The alerts containing flood impacts and severity information will be disseminated through the DisasterAWARE platform, operated by the Pacific Disaster Center (PDC), that provides global multi-hazard alerting and Situational Awareness information to the emergency management community and public. The current version of the MoM approach was implemented for a case study flood event that occurred during January and February of 2020 in South and Central Africa. The findings of the case study event reveal that the approach is effective in identifying potential flood impact areas and the spatio-temporal variation of flood severity, flood depth and extent at watershed level, which will be used to assess infrastructure and societal impacts using earth-observation data and for alerting.

Kar, Bandana↗

Modeling Sepsis: Establishment and Validation of a 72-Hour Swine Model of Penetrating Abdominal Trauma

Background/Objectives: Fecal peritonitis following penetrating abdominal trauma is a serious condition that often results in sepsis and organ failure. The aim of our study was to develop a novel conscious porcine model of sepsis and organ dysfunction caused by multiple penetrating injuries to the small and large intestines. Methods: Twelve female Yorkshire pigs (average weight 50.6 ± 6.5 kg) were divided into two groups: Penetrating Abdominal Trauma (PAT) (n = 8) and Control (n = 4). All surgical procedures were performed under anesthesia with adequate analgesia. In the PAT group, the small and large intestines were punctured, and feces mixed with saline were introduced into the abdominal cavity to induce peritonitis. The Control group received sham surgery with only saline solution. The animals were observed in a conscious state over a period of 72 h, vital parameters were recorded, and blood samples were taken regularly. We adapted a pig-specific SOFA score and developed pig-specific SIRS criteria and NEWS2 score to assess organ function. The model was validated by independent investigators. Results: The survival rate in the PAT group was 75%, with an average survival time of 58.5 h, while all animals in the Control group survived to euthanasia. Monitoring showed pathophysiological changes, such as tachycardia, leucopenia, and thrombocytopenia, indicative of sepsis and organ dysfunction. Blinded investigators independently confirmed the model’s validity. Conclusions: A new swine model of penetrating abdominal trauma and sepsis has been successfully developed that demonstrates significant physiological and immunologic changes comparable to human sepsis. This new model provides a realistic platform for future research into sepsis, its diagnostics, and the evaluation of therapeutic strategies.

General & Internal Medicine↗

Special Issue: Microbial Community Modeling: Prediction of Microbial Interactions and Community Dynamics

Microbial communities are networks of species, the interaction structure of which dynamically reorganizes in a varying environment. Even in a static condition, community dynamics are often difficult to predict due to highly nonlinear interspecies interactions. Understanding fundamental principles of microbial interactions is therefore key for predicting and harnessing community function and properties. As extensively reviewed previously, mathematical models and computational methods that can predictively link interactions to community behaviors are indispensable tools for achieving this goal. This Special Issue of Processes collects eleven papers from lead scientists and researchers active in the area under the topic of “Microbial Community Modeling: Prediction of Microbial Interactions and Community Dynamics.” The collected papers cover various topics of interest: 1) two review/opinion papers discussing recent advances in biofilm modeling and specific issues for successful collaboration between experimentalists and theorists, 2) one paper on the dynamics of complex environmental communities, 3) six papers dealing with fundamental aspects of microbial interactions and stability in model communities, and 4) two papers on the development and utilization of microbial consortia for biotechnology applications.

Song, Hyun-Seob (ORCID:0000000221546358)↗

Planck 2015 Constraints on the Non-flat XCDM Inflation Model

We examine the Planck 2015 cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropy data by using a physically consistent energy density inhomogeneity power spectrum generated by quantum-mechanical fluctuations during an early epoch of inflation in the non-flat XCDM model. Here dark energy is parameterized using a fluid with a negative equation of state parameter but with the speed of fluid acoustic inhomogeneities set to the speed of light. We find that the Planck 2015 data in conjunction with baryon acoustic oscillation distance measurements are reasonably well fit by a closed-XCDM model in which spatial curvature contributes a percent of the current cosmological energy density budget. In this model, the measured non-relativistic matter density parameter and Hubble constant are in good agreement with values determined using most other data. Depending on cosmological parameter values, the closed-XCDM model has reduced power, relative to the tilted, spatially flat ΛCDM case, and can partially alleviate the low multipole CMB temperature anisotropy deficit and can help partially reconcile the CMB anisotropy and weak lensing σ 8 constraints, at the expense of somewhat worsening the fit to higher multipole CMB temperature anisotropy data. Furthemore, the closed-XCDM inflation model does not seem to improve the agreement much, if at all, compared to the closed ΛCDM inflation case, even though it has one additional free parameter.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Modelling bidirectional fluxes of methanol and acetaldehyde with the FORCAsT canopy exchange model

Here, the FORCAsT canopy exchange model was used to investigate the underlying mechanisms governing foliage emissions of methanol and acetaldehyde, two short chain oxygenated volatile organic compounds ubiquitous in the troposphere and known to have strong biogenic sources, at a northern mid-latitude forest site. The explicit representation of the vegetation canopy within the model allowed us to test the hypothesis that stomatal conductance regulates emissions of these compounds to an extent that its influence is observable at the ecosystem scale, a process not currently considered in regional- or global-scale atmospheric chemistry models. Here, we found that FORCAsT could only reproduce the magnitude and diurnal profiles of methanol and acetaldehyde fluxes measured at the top of the forest canopy at Harvard Forest if light-dependent emissions were introduced to the model. With the inclusion of such emissions, FORCAsT was able to successfully simulate the observed bidirectional exchange of methanol and acetaldehyde. Although we found evidence that stomatal conductance influences methanol fluxes and concentrations at scales beyond the leaf level, particularly at dawn and dusk, we were able to adequately capture ecosystem exchange without the addition of stomatal control to the standard parameterisations of foliage emissions, suggesting that ecosystem fluxes can be well enough represented by the emissions models currently used.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Insights of warm-cloud biases in Community Atmospheric Model 5 and 6 from the single-column modeling framework and Aerosol and Cloud Experiments in the Eastern North Atlantic (ACE-ENA) observations

There has been a growing concern that most climate models predict precipitation that is too frequent, likely due to lack of reliable subgrid variability and vertical variations in microphysical processes in low-level warm clouds. In this study, the warm-cloud physics parameterizations in the singe-column configurations of NCAR Community Atmospheric Model version 6 and 5 (SCAM6 and SCAM5, respectively) are evaluated using ground-based and airborne observations from the Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Aerosol and Cloud Experiments in the Eastern North Atlantic (ACE-ENA) field campaign near the Azores islands during 2017–2018. The 8-month single-column model (SCM) simulations show that both SCAM6 and SCAM5 can generally reproduce marine boundary layer cloud structure, major macrophysical properties, and their transition. The improvement in warm-cloud properties from the Community Atmospheric Model 5 and 6 (CAM5 to CAM6) physics can be found through comparison with the observations. Meanwhile, both physical schemes underestimate cloud liquid water content, cloud droplet size, and rain liquid water content but overestimate surface rainfall. Modeled cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations are comparable with aircraft-observed ones in the summer but are overestimated by a factor of 2 in winter, largely due to the biases in the long-range transport of anthropogenic aerosols like sulfate. We also test the newly recalibrated autoconversion and accretion parameterizations that account for vertical variations in droplet size. Compared to the observations, more significant improvement is found in SCAM5 than in SCAM6. This result is likely explained by the introduction of subgrid variations in cloud properties in CAM6 cloud microphysics, which further suppresses the scheme's sensitivity to individual warm-rain microphysical parameters. The predicted cloud susceptibilities to CCN perturbations in CAM6 are within a reasonable range, indicating significant progress since CAM5 which produces an aerosol indirect effect that is too strong. The present study emphasizes the importance of understanding biases in cloud physics parameterizations by combining SCM with in situ observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Regionally refined test bed in E3SM atmosphere model version 1 (EAMv1) and applications for high-resolution modelling

Climate simulation with more accurate process-level representation at finer resolutions is a pressing necessity in order to provide actionable information to policy-makers regarding extreme events in a changing climate. Computational limitation is a major obstacle for building, and running high-resolution (HR, here 0.25° average grid spacing at the equator) models (HRM). A more affordable path to HRM is to use a global regionally refined model (RRM), which only simulates a portion of the globe at HR while the remaining is at low-resolution (LR, 1°). In this study, we compare the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) atmosphere model version 1 (EAMv1) RRM with the HR mesh over the contiguous United States (CONUS) to its corresponding globally uniform LR and HR configurations, as well as to observations and reanalysis data. The RRM has a significantly reduced computational cost (roughly proportional to the HR mesh size) relative to the globally uniform HRM. Over the CONUS, we evaluate the simulation of important dynamical and physical quantities as well as various precipitation measures. Differences between the RRM and HRM over the HR region are predominantly small, demonstrating that the RRM reproduces both well- and poorly simulated behaviours of the HRM over the CONUS. Further analysis based on RRM simulations with the LR vs. HR model parameters reveals that RRM performance is greatly influenced by the different parameter choices used in the LR and HR EAMv1. This is a result of the poor scale-aware behaviour of physical parameterizations, especially for variables influencing sub-grid scale physical processes. RRM can serve as a useful framework to test physics schemes across a range of scales, leading to improved consistency in future E3SM versions. Applying nudging-to-observations techniques within the RRM framework also demonstrates significant advantages over a free-running configuration for use as a testbed, and as such represents an efficient and more robust physics testbed capability. Our conclusions provide additional confirmatory evidence that the RRM is an efficient and effective approach for HRM development and hydrologic research.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An improved mechanistic model for ammonia volatilization in Earth system models: Flow of Agricultural Nitrogen version 2 (FANv2)

Abstract. Volatilization of ammonia (NH 3 ) from fertilizers and livestock wastes forms a significant pathway of nitrogen losses in agricultural ecosystems and constitutes the largest source of atmospheric emissions of NH 3 . This paper describes a major update to the process model FAN (Flow of Agricultural Nitrogen), which evaluates NH 3 emissions interactively within an Earth system model; in this work, the Community Earth System Model (CESM) is used. The updated version (FANv2) includes a more detailed treatment of both physical and agricultural processes, which allows the model to differentiate between the volatilization losses from animal housings, manure storage, grazed pastures, and the application of manure and different types of mineral fertilizers. The modeled ammonia emissions are first evaluated at a local scale against experimental data for various types of fertilizers and manure, and they are subsequently run globally to evaluate NH3 emissions for 2010–2015 based on gridded datasets of fertilizer use and livestock populations. Comparison of regional emissions shows that FANv2 agrees with previous inventories for North America and Europe and is within the range of previous inventories for China. However, due to higher NH 3 emissions in Africa, India, and Latin America, the global emissions simulated by FANv2 (48 Tg N) are 30 %–40 % higher than in the existing inventories.

Vira, Julius↗

Modelling evapotranspiration during precipitation deficits: Identifying critical processes in a land surface model

Surface fluxes from land surface models (LSMs) have traditionally been evaluated against monthly, seasonal or annual mean states. The limited ability of LSMs to reproduce observed evaporative fluxes under water-stressed conditions has been previously noted, but very few studies have systematically evaluated these models during rainfall deficits. We evaluated latent heat fluxes simulated by the Community Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange (CABLE) LSM across 20 flux tower sites at sub-annual to inter-annual timescales, in particular focusing on model performance during seasonal-scale rainfall deficits. The importance of key model processes in capturing the latent heat flux was explored by employing alternative representations of hydrology, leaf area index, soil properties and stomatal conductance. We found that the representation of hydrological processes was critical for capturing observed declines in latent heat during rainfall deficits. By contrast, the effects of soil properties, LAI and stomatal conductance were highly site-specific. Whilst the standard model performs reasonably well at annual scales as measured by common metrics, it grossly underestimates latent heat during rainfall deficits. A new version of CABLE, with a more physically consistent representation of hydrology, captures the variation in the latent heat flux during seasonal-scale rainfall deficits better than earlier versions, but remaining biases point to future research needs. Lastly, our results highlight the importance of evaluating LSMs under water-stressed conditions and across multiple plant functional types and climate regimes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

V/STOL tilt rotor study. Volume 5: A mathematical model for real time flight simulation of the Bell model 301 tilt rotor research aircraft

A mathematical model for real-time flight simulation of a tilt rotor research aircraft was developed. The mathematical model was used to support the aircraft design, pilot training, and proof-of-concept aspects of the development program. The structure of the mathematical model is indicated by a block diagram. The mathematical model differs from that for a conventional fixed wing aircraft principally in the added requirement to represent the dynamics and aerodynamics of the rotors, the interaction of the rotor wake with the airframe, and the rotor control and drive systems. The constraints imposed on the mathematical model are defined.

P B Harendra↗