Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Parameter estimation using data”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,297 records · Page 72
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2015

Sloan Digital Sky Survey III photometric quasar clustering: Probing the initial conditions of the Universe

Here, the Sloan Digital Sky Survey has surveyed 14,555 square degrees of the sky, and delivered over a trillion pixels of imaging data. We present the large-scale clustering of 1.6 million quasars between z=0.5 and z=2.5 that have been classified from this imaging, representing the highest density of quasars ever studied for clustering measurements. This data set spans 0~ 11,00 square degrees and probes a volume of 80 h –3 Gpc 3 . In principle, such a large volume and medium density of tracers should facilitate high-precision cosmological constraints. We measure the angular clustering of photometrically classified quasars using an optimal quadratic estimator in four redshift slices with an accuracy of ~ 25% over a bin width of δ l ~ 10–15 on scales corresponding to matter-radiation equality and larger (0ℓ ~ 2–3).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Nuclear data uncertainty propagation applied to the versatile test reactor conceptual design

We report the Versatile Test Reactor (VTR) currently under development is a 300 MWth sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR) fueled with ternary metal alloy fuel, which aims to accelerate the testing of advanced nuclear fuels, materials, instrumentation, and sensors in high flux environments that are necessary to license the next generation of advanced reactor concepts. To support the VTR design process, uncertainties associated with the nuclear data has been propagated through the reactor core neutronics calculation to global parameters of interest, such as the core multiplication factor, kinetic parameters, and various reactivity feedback coefficients, following the sensitivity based uncertainty propagation approach. By folding the sensitivity coefficients, separately computed by the generalized perturbation theory code PERSENT and Monte Carlo code Serpent 2, with the variance-covariance matrices from COMMARA-2.0, we obtain the reaction-wise, isotope-wise, and overall uncertainties for each response of interest due to nuclear data uncertainty. With Serpent 2, the statistical error of the uncertainty is obtained by propagating the statistical error of the sensitivity coefficients through the same process using a newly developed uncertainty propagation method. From both codes, the overall top uncertainty contributors are found to be the cross section of Fe-56 elastic scattering, Na-23 elastic scattering, and U 238 inelastic scattering. The large contributions of the Fe-56 elastic scattering cross sections to global parameters are due to its relatively large relative uncertainty of 5–10% in nuclear data and the large volume of Fe-containing reflector assemblies in the fairly compact VTR core design. Both codes agreed well for the overall uncertainty estimates of all responses of interest, except the delayed neutron fraction, prompt neutron generation time, and the coolant density feedback coefficient, where Serpent 2 yielded a much larger value than PERSENT due to the large statistical error of sensitivity coefficients. The calculated uncertainties are also compared to those associated with other SFR cores. Another outcome of this study is a variance-covariance matrix of reactivity coefficients, which can be used in the subsequent uncertainty propagation to the system level to investigate the impact of identified uncertainties on system responses in the safety analysis.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian analysis of nucleon-nucleon scattering data in pionless effective field theory

We perform Bayesian model calibration of two-nucleon (NN) low-energy constants (LECs) appearing in an NN interaction based on pionless effective field theory (πEFT). The calibration is carried out for potentials constructed using naive dimensional analysis in NN relative momenta (p) up to next-to-leading order [NLO, O(p 2 )] and next-to-next-to-next-to-leading order [N3LO, O(p 4 )]. We consider two classes of pionless πEFT potential: one that acts in all partial waves and another that is dominated by s-wave physics. The two classes produce broadly similar results for calibrations to NN data up to E lab = 5 MeV. Our analysis accounts for the correlated uncertainties that arise from the truncation of the pionless πEFT. We simultaneously estimate both the πEFT LECs and the parameters that quantify the truncation error. This permits the first quantitative estimates of the pionless πEFT breakdown scale, Λ b : the 95% intervals are Λ b ∈[50.11,63.03] MeV at NLO and Λ b ∈[72.27,88.54] MeV at N3LO. Furthermore, invoking naive dimensional analysis for the NN potential, therefore, does not lead to consistent results across orders in pionless πEFT. This exemplifies the possible use of Bayesian tools to identify inconsistencies in a proposed EFT power counting.

Bayesian methods↗
DOE OSTI2017

Exploring JLA supernova data with improved flux-averaging technique

In this work, we explore the cosmological consequences of the ''Joint Light-curve Analysis'' (JLA) supernova (SN) data by using an improved flux-averaging (FA) technique, in which only the type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) at high redshift are flux-averaged. Adopting the criterion of figure of Merit (FoM) and considering six dark energy (DE) parameterizations, we search the best FA recipe that gives the tightest DE constraints in the ( z {sub cut}, Δ z ) plane, where z {sub cut} and Δ z are redshift cut-off and redshift interval of FA, respectively. Then, based on the best FA recipe obtained, we discuss the impacts of varying z {sub cut} and varying Δ z , revisit the evolution of SN color luminosity parameter β, and study the effects of adopting different FA recipe on parameter estimation. We find that: (1) The best FA recipe is ( z {sub cut} = 0.6, Δ z =0.06), which is insensitive to a specific DE parameterization. (2) Flux-averaging JLA samples at z {sub cut} ≥ 0.4 will yield tighter DE constraints than the case without using FA. (3) Using FA can significantly reduce the redshift-evolution of β. (4) The best FA recipe favors a larger fractional matter density Ω {sub m} . In summary, we present an alternative method of dealing with JLA data, which can reduce the systematic uncertainties of SNe Ia and give the tighter DE constraints at the same time. Our method will be useful in the use of SNe Ia data for precision cosmology.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2013

Petroleum Refinery Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) Model User Reference Guide

The Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) models, developed through the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), are user-friendly tools utilized to estimate the economic impacts at the local level of constructing and operating fuel and power generation projects for a range of conventional and renewable energy technologies. The JEDI Petroleum Refinery Model User Reference Guide was developed to assist users in employing and understanding the model. This guide provides information on the model's underlying methodology, as well as the parameters and references used to develop the cost data utilized in the model. This guide also provides basic instruction on model add-in features, operation of the model, and a discussion of how the results should be interpreted. Based on project-specific inputs from the user, the model estimates job creation, earning and output (total economic activity) for a given petroleum refinery. This includes the direct, indirect and induced economic impacts to the local economy associated with the refinery's construction and operation phases. Project cost and job data used in the model are derived from the most current cost estimations available. Local direct and indirect economic impacts are estimated using economic multipliers derived from IMPLAN software. By determining the regional economic impacts and job creation for a proposed refinery, the JEDI Petroleum Refinery model can be used to field questions about the added value refineries may bring to the local community.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Bayesian experimental design and parameter estimation for ultrafast spin dynamics

Abstract Advanced experimental measurements are crucial for driving theoretical developments and unveiling novel phenomena in condensed matter and materials physics, which often suffer from the scarcity of large-scale facility resources, such as x-ray or neutron scattering centers. To address these limitations, we introduce a methodology that leverages the Bayesian optimal experimental design paradigm to efficiently uncover key quantum spin fluctuation parameters from x-ray photon fluctuation spectroscopy (XPFS) data. Our method is compatible with existing theoretical simulation pipelines and can also be used in combination with fast machine learning surrogate models in the event that real-time simulations are unfeasible. Our numerical benchmarks demonstrate the superior performance in predicting model parameters and in delivering more informative measurements within limited experimental time. Our method can be adapted to many different types of experiments beyond XPFS and spin fluctuation studies, facilitating more efficient data collection and accelerating scientific discoveries.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Calibration and Uncertainty Estimation Using the Ensemble Kalman Filter with a Large Subsurface Flow and Transport Model - 20321

At routinely monitored groundwater contamination sites, periodically measured environmental conditions such as groundwater levels and contaminant concentrations are used to inform and confirm a conceptual site model (CSM) and guide the development and calibration of a numerical groundwater flow and transport model. The calibration of groundwater flow and transport models after each measurement (sampling) event can illuminate deficiencies in a CSM, identify areas where additional monitoring is warranted, and predict the behavior of the system to guide decision making. However, manual and automated (e.g. PEST) model calibration tools can be time-consuming and computationally expensive to implement after each sampling event. Perhaps as a result, such calibration tools generally utilize all available monitoring data simultaneously rather than sequentially assimilating monitoring data one sampling event at a time as the results from sampling become available. A more real-time data assimilation approach may reduce parameter uncertainty, quantify the value of additional monitoring data, and produce a usable model more quickly and with less effort. To mitigate the potential time-consuming aspects of manual and widely applied automated calibration techniques, a data assimilation algorithm called the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) was evaluated as a relatively efficient method of model calibration and uncertainty assessment via the sequential integration of monitoring data into a model. The EnKF was able to successfully and efficiently assimilate monitoring and modeling data to calibrate a complex flow and transport model at a real-world site with significant subsurface heterogeneity, uncertainty, and 12 years of monitoring data (over 4,000 individual measurements of groundwater levels and over 2,500 measurements of contaminant concentrations). Starting with an uncalibrated model data from annual sampling events were sequentially assimilated, and the resultant predication errors and estimated parameter uncertainties were tracked. After all monitoring data were assimilated, both flow and transport residuals at the end of the EnKF process were comparable to those produced via a concurrent PEST calibration effort but required fewer model simulations. Both uncertainty and prediction errors decreased over time. In a real-time application, the adequacy of the model could be assessed after each sampling event. The benefits of such a real-time approach to utilizing monitoring data include reduced costs (in the form of model updates or site characterization efforts), early flagging of possible errors in the CSM, and a reduced risk of overfitting and corresponding increased confidence in model predictions. This tool may be particularly useful compared to other calibration techniques (e.g. manual, PEST) when model runtimes are long, calibration parameters are many, or parameter uncertainty is large. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2021

NO x adsorption with CO and C 2 H 4 on Pd/SSZ-13: Experiments and modeling

A transient monolith model containing microkinetic schemes for NO uptake and release over Pd/SSZ-13 without and with reductants CO or C2H4 is presented. The scheme involves three cationic Pd species (Z – [PdOH] + , Z – Pd 2+ Z – , Z – Pd + ) as the active sites during uptake of NO, CO and C 2 H 4 , and their desorption and conversion at higher temperature. Kinetic parameters are estimated through a combination of density functional theory (DFT) estimates and a fit of uptake, desorption and conversion data. The tuned model is validated at different uptake temperatures, ramp rates, and flowrates. A “degree of uptake control” parameter is defined that helps to identify the step(s) that are uptake controlling. The model helps to interpret the data features and is used to identify operating conditions to meet application-relevant performance metrics, including NO trapping efficiency and NO release temperature. Furthermore, the model demonstrates higher NO uptake on Pd/SSZ-13 compared to Pd/ZSM-5.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

BeyondPlanck X. Bandpass and beam leakage corrections

We discuss the treatment of bandpass and beam leakage corrections in the Bayesian BeyondPlanck CMB analysis pipeline as applied to the Planck LFI measurements. As a preparatory step, we first apply three corrections to the nominal LFI bandpass profiles including removal of a known systematic effect in the ground measuring equipment at 61 GHz; smoothing of standing wave ripples; and edge regularization. The main net impact of these modifications is an overall shift in the 70 GHz bandpass of +0.6 GHz; we argue that any analysis of LFI data products, either from Planck or BeyondPlanck, should use these new bandpasses. In addition, we fit a single free bandpass parameter for each radiometer of the form Δ i = Δ 0 + $δ$ i , where Δ 0 represents an absolute frequency shift per frequency band and $δ$i is a relative shift per detector. The absolute correction is only fitted at 30 GHz with a full $\chi$ 2 -based likelihood, resulting in a correction of Δ 30 = 0.24 ± 0.03 GHz. The relative corrections are fitted using a spurious map approach, fundamentally similar to the method pioneered by the WMAP team, but without introducing many additional degrees of freedom. All bandpass parameters are sampled using a standard Metropolis sampler within the main BeyondPlanck Gibbs chain, and bandpass uncertainties are thus propagated to all other data products in the analysis. In total, we find that our bandpass model significantly reduces leakage effects. For beam leakage corrections, we adopt the official Planck LFI beam estimates without additional degrees of freedom, and only marginalize over the underlying sky model. We note that this is the first-time leakage from beam mismatch has been included for Planck LFI maps.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Study of interface correlation in W/C multilayer structure by specular and non-specular grazing incidence X-ray reflectivity measurements

W/C/W tri-layer thin film samples have been deposited on c-Si substrates in a home-built Ion Beam Sputtering system at 1.5 × 10{sup −3} Torr Ar working pressure and 10 mA grid current. The tri-layer samples have been deposited at different Ar{sup +} ion energies between 0.6 and 1.2 keV for W layer deposition and the samples have been characterized by specular and non-specular grazing incidence X-ray reflectivity (GIXR) measurements. By analyzing the GIXR spectra, various interface parameters have been obtained for both W-on-C and C-on-W interfaces and optimum Ar{sup +} ion energy for obtaining interfaces with low imperfections has been found. Subsequently, multilayer W/C samples with 5-layer, 7-layer, 9-layer, and 13-layer have been deposited at this optimum Ar{sup +} ion energy. By fitting the specular and diffused GIXR data of the multilayer samples with the parameters of each interface as fitting variables, different interface parameters, viz., interface width, in-plane correlation length, interface roughness, and interface diffusion have been estimated for each interface and their variation across the depth of the multilayers have been obtained. The information would be useful in realizing W/C multilayers for soft X-ray mirror application in the <100 Å wavelength regime. The applicability of the “restart of the growth at the interface” model in the case of these ion beam sputter deposited W/C multilayers has also been investigated in the course of this study.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2017

Bayesian Treed Calibration: An Application to Carbon Capture With AX Sorbent

In cases where field or experimental measurements are not available, computer models can model real physical or engineering systems to reproduce their outcomes. They are usually calibrated in light of experimental data to create a better representation of the real system. Statistical methods, based on Gaussian processes, for calibration and prediction have been especially important when the computer models are expensive and experimental data limited. In this paper, we develop the Bayesian treed calibration (BTC) as an extension of standard Gaussian process calibration methods to deal with non-stationarity computer models and/or their discrepancy from the field (or experimental) data. Our proposed method partitions both the calibration and observable input space, based on a binary tree partitioning, into sub-regions where existing model calibration methods can be applied to connect a computer model with the real system. The estimation of the parameters in the proposed model is carried out using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) computational techniques. Different strategies have been applied to improve mixing. We illustrate our method in two artificial examples and a real application that concerns the capture of carbon dioxide with AX amine based sorbents. The source code and the examples analyzed in this paper are available as part of the supplementary materials.

Bayesian tree↗
DOE OSTI2015

Cosmology with decaying cosmological constant—exact solutions and model testing

We study dynamics of Λ(t) cosmological models which are a natural generalization of the standard cosmological model (the ΛCDM model). We consider a class of models: the ones with a prescribed form of Λ(t)=Λ{sub bare}+α{sup 2}/t{sup 2}. This type of a Λ(t) parametrization is motivated by different cosmological approaches. We interpret the model with running Lambda (Λ(t)) as a special model of an interacting cosmology with the interaction term −dΛ(t)/dt in which energy transfer is between dark matter and dark energy sectors. For the Λ(t) cosmology with a prescribed form of Λ(t) we have found the exact solution in the form of Bessel functions. Our model shows that fractional density of dark energy Ω{sub e} is constant and close to zero during the early evolution of the universe. We have also constrained the model parameters for this class of models using the astronomical data such as SNIa data, BAO, CMB, measurements of H(z) and the Alcock-Paczyński test. In this context we formulate a simple criterion of variability of Λ with respect to t in terms of variability of the jerk or sign of estimator (1−Ω{sub m},0−Ω{sub Λ,0}). The case study of our model enable us to find an upper limit α{sup 2} < 0.012 (2σ C.L.) describing the variation from the cosmological constant while the LCDM model seems to be consistent with various data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2014

Monte Carlo simulation of TrueBeam flattening-filter-free beams using Varian phase-space files: Comparison with experimental data

Purpose: Phase-space files for Monte Carlo simulation of the Varian TrueBeam beams have been made available by Varian. The aim of this study is to evaluate the accuracy of the distributed phase-space files for flattening filter free (FFF) beams, against experimental measurements from ten TrueBeam Linacs. Methods: The phase-space files have been used as input in PRIMO, a recently released Monte Carlo program based on thePENELOPE code. Simulations of 6 and 10 MV FFF were computed in a virtual water phantom for field sizes 3 × 3, 6 × 6, and 10 × 10 cm{sup 2} using 1 × 1 × 1 mm{sup 3} voxels and for 20 × 20 and 40 × 40 cm{sup 2} with 2 × 2 × 2 mm{sup 3} voxels. The particles contained in the initial phase-space files were transported downstream to a plane just above the phantom surface, where a subsequent phase-space file was tallied. Particles were transported downstream this second phase-space file to the water phantom. Experimental data consisted of depth doses and profiles at five different depths acquired at SSD = 100 cm (seven datasets) and SSD = 90 cm (three datasets). Simulations and experimental data were compared in terms of dose difference. Gamma analysis was also performed using 1%, 1 mm and 2%, 2 mm criteria of dose-difference and distance-to-agreement, respectively. Additionally, the parameters characterizing the dose profiles of unflattened beams were evaluated for both measurements and simulations. Results: Analysis of depth dose curves showed that dose differences increased with increasing field size and depth; this effect might be partly motivated due to an underestimation of the primary beam energy used to compute the phase-space files. Average dose differences reached 1% for the largest field size. Lateral profiles presented dose differences well within 1% for fields up to 20 × 20 cm{sup 2}, while the discrepancy increased toward 2% in the 40 × 40 cm{sup 2} cases. Gamma analysis resulted in an agreement of 100% when a 2%, 2 mm criterion was used, with the only exception of the 40 × 40 cm{sup 2} field (∼95% agreement). With the more stringent criteria of 1%, 1 mm, the agreement reduced to almost 95% for field sizes up to 10 × 10 cm{sup 2}, worse for larger fields. Unflatness and slope FFF-specific parameters are in line with the possible energy underestimation of the simulated results relative to experimental data. Conclusions: The agreement between Monte Carlo simulations and experimental data proved that the evaluated Varian phase-space files for FFF beams from TrueBeam can be used as radiation sources for accurate Monte Carlo dose estimation, especially for field sizes up to 10 × 10 cm{sup 2}, that is the range of field sizes mostly used in combination to the FFF, high dose rate beams.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Updates to Relevance Vector Machine: Multiclass Classification, Variable Selection, and Proof-of-Concept Application to Safeguards Fresh Fuel Verification using List-Mode Neutron Collar Data

To expand the capabilities of safeguards authorities to verify the integrity of fresh fuel assemblies, Oak Ridge National Laboratory has retrofit the existing electronics of the JCC-71 uranium neutron coincidence collar, which contains 18 3 He neutron detectors and an external 241 AmLi(α, n) neutron interrogation source arranged to surround a fresh nuclear fuel assembly. The new electronics system allows analysts to record list-mode neutron multiplicity data in addition to the singles and doubles rates that are currently measured. Based on previous proof-of-concept research, analysis of these new data will identify off-normal fuel configurations in an assembly and characterize or localize the specific partial fuel defects. The purpose of this report it to document the analysis algorithm development and then to demonstrate its capability for the safeguards verification of fresh fuel assemblies using list mode neutron collar data. To analyze the complex list-mode data collected with the upgraded uranium neutron collar, multivariate classification algorithms are being developed using a novel classification method, the relevance vector machine. This approach may be applied to multiclass problems to estimate the probability that test data belongs to one of many possible classes of data. In addition, our method identifies the most useful variables/channels for making predictions, which illuminates the basis for the model’s predictions, and this interpretability is largely unique among data analytics methods. Variable selection occurs during model training and parameter tuning and does not need any external hyperparameter tuning routines. Finally, we apply the modified relevance vector machine to a simulated dataset of list-mode neutron collar data generated with the radiation transport code MCNP. The method can correctly identify off-normal fuel configurations, categorize the data according to four fuel defect scenarios, and rank the channels in the data according to prediction utility. For nuclear safeguards applications, it is concluded that this method has the potential to increase the sensitivity and reliability to detect missing fuel rods from a standard 17 x 17 Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) fresh fuel assembly. Within this analysis, “off-normal” (i.e., missing fuel rods) were correctly classified in 17 simulated test scenarios with one quarter (25%) of the fresh fuel rods missing using a training data set of 58 simulated measurements.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Overview of the Geoanalytical Economic Evaluation of Saline Storage (GEESS) System

This report provides an overview on the Geoanalytical Economic Evaluation of Saline Storage (GEESS) system which characterized 57 geologic saline formations targeted for geologic carbon storage across the lower-48 U.S. states using publicly available resources. The GEESS system consists of high spatial resolution datasets (up to 5 km grid spacing) that provide key geologic parameters (e.g., depth, thickness, permeability), and estimates of CO 2 plume size and CO 2 first-year break-even price that were determined by exercising GEESS data through the FECM/NETL CO 2 Saline Storage Cost Model (CO2_S_COM). The GEESS geodatabase is available on NETL’s EDX at GEESS Geodatabase.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

System Study: Reactor Core Isolation Cooling 1998-2024

This report presents an unreliability evaluation of the reactor core isolation cooling (RCIC) system at 28 U.S. commercial operating boiling water reactors. New Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) models with the most recent SPAR parameter update results were used in this report. Demand, run hour, and failure data from calendar years 1998 to 2024 for selected components were obtained from the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations Industry Reporting and Information System. The unreliability results are trended for the most recent 10 year period and yearly estimates for system unreliability are provided for the entire active period. No statistically significant increasing or decreasing trends were identified in the RCIC results.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗