Use of Monte Carlo simulation to quantify CIPS risk
Crud Induced Power Shift (CIPS), caused by the accumulation of boron compounds in corrosion product deposits on high power fuel assemblies, is an important operational issue for Pressurized Water Reactors (PWRs). The Boron-induced Offset Analysis (BOA) computer code has been developed by EPRI in collaboration with Westinghouse to help utility engineers avoid onset of CIPS. The code, used with an established procedure, predicts the maximum boron mass that will be accumulated in the upcoming cycle for a given core design and plant chemistry and operating program. The calculated boron mass above a given threshold predicts the risk of CIPS to the upcoming cycle. BOA has been successful in correctly predicting the risk for onset or lack of CIPS in many cycles. However, like most codes modeling complex physical phenomena, it is subject to uncertainties in several of the inputs used to describe these phenomena. The current BOA procedure results in a single 'best estimate' prediction, which has been judged to provide engineers with a practical way to assess CIPS risk. As such, however, there is a probability that the actual plant CIPS performance may be underestimated. This paper describes a method to assess the probability (with an associated confidence level) of no CIPS, mild to moderate CIPS, or severe CIPS using BOA for a given core design. This is accomplished through the use of a Monte Carlo simulation. The simulation is applied to several plant examples, and the results are evaluated in terms of the likelihood of mild or severe CIPS. A suggested set of criteria for decision making regarding CIPS risk is presented in the conclusion. (authors)