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Updates to Relevance Vector Machine: Multiclass Classification, Variable Selection, and Proof-of-Concept Application to Safeguards Fresh Fuel Verification using List-Mode Neutron Collar Data

To expand the capabilities of safeguards authorities to verify the integrity of fresh fuel assemblies, Oak Ridge National Laboratory has retrofit the existing electronics of the JCC-71 uranium neutron coincidence collar, which contains 18 3 He neutron detectors and an external 241 AmLi(α, n) neutron interrogation source arranged to surround a fresh nuclear fuel assembly. The new electronics system allows analysts to record list-mode neutron multiplicity data in addition to the singles and doubles rates that are currently measured. Based on previous proof-of-concept research, analysis of these new data will identify off-normal fuel configurations in an assembly and characterize or localize the specific partial fuel defects. The purpose of this report it to document the analysis algorithm development and then to demonstrate its capability for the safeguards verification of fresh fuel assemblies using list mode neutron collar data. To analyze the complex list-mode data collected with the upgraded uranium neutron collar, multivariate classification algorithms are being developed using a novel classification method, the relevance vector machine. This approach may be applied to multiclass problems to estimate the probability that test data belongs to one of many possible classes of data. In addition, our method identifies the most useful variables/channels for making predictions, which illuminates the basis for the model’s predictions, and this interpretability is largely unique among data analytics methods. Variable selection occurs during model training and parameter tuning and does not need any external hyperparameter tuning routines. Finally, we apply the modified relevance vector machine to a simulated dataset of list-mode neutron collar data generated with the radiation transport code MCNP. The method can correctly identify off-normal fuel configurations, categorize the data according to four fuel defect scenarios, and rank the channels in the data according to prediction utility. For nuclear safeguards applications, it is concluded that this method has the potential to increase the sensitivity and reliability to detect missing fuel rods from a standard 17 x 17 Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) fresh fuel assembly. Within this analysis, “off-normal” (i.e., missing fuel rods) were correctly classified in 17 simulated test scenarios with one quarter (25%) of the fresh fuel rods missing using a training data set of 58 simulated measurements.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

A stochastic biomass blending problem in decentralized supply chains

Blending biomass materials of different physical or chemical properties provides an opportunity to adjust the quality of the feedstock to meet the specifications of the conversion platform. We propose a model which identifies the right mix of biomass to optimize the performance of the thermochemical conversion process at the mini-mum cost. This is a chance-constraint programming (CCP) model which takes into account the stochastic nature of biomass quality. The proposed CCP model ensures that process requirements, which are impacted by physical and chemical properties of biomass, are met most of the time. We consider two problem settings, a centralized and a decentralized supply chain. We propose a mixed-integer linear program to model the blending problem in the centralized setting and a bilevel program to model the blending problem in the decentralized setting. We use the sample average approximation method to approximate the chance constraints, and propose solution algorithms to solve this approximation. We develop a case study for South Carolina using data provided by the Billion Ton Study. Based on our results, the blends identified consist mainly of pine and softwood residues. The blends identified and the suppliers selected by both models are different. The cost of the centralized supply chain is 2%–6% lower. The implications of these results are twofold. First, these results could lead to improved collaborations in the supply chain. Second, these results provide an estimate of the approximation error from assuming centralized decision making in the supply chain.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Search for medium effects using jet axis decorrelation in inclusive jets from PbPb collisions at $\sqrt{{s}_{\text{NN}}}$ = 5.02 TeV

The jet axis decorrelation in inclusive jets is studied using lead-lead (PbPb) collisions at a center-of-mass energy per nucleon pair of 5.02 TeV. The jet axis decorrelation is defined as the angular difference between two definitions of the jet axis. It is obtained by applying two recombination schemes on all the constituents of a given jet reconstructed by the anti-kT sequential algorithm with a distance parameter of R = 0.4. The data set, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 0.66 nb −1 , was collected in 2018 with the CMS detector at the CERN LHC. The jet axis decorrelations are examined across collision centrality selections and intervals of jet transverse momentum. A centrality dependent evolution of the measured distributions is observed, with a progressive narrowing seen in more central events. This narrowing could result from medium-induced modification of the internal jet structure or reflect color charge effects in energy loss. This new measurement probes jet substructure in previously unexplored kinematic domains and show great promise for providing new insights on the color charge dependence of energy loss to jet-quenching models.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Research on Superconducting Magnet in a Superconducting Synchronous Generator

Design and test of superconducting magnet (SM) for a superconducting synchronous generator (SSG) are studied in this paper. First, a suitable superconducting material is selected to make SM by analyzing the characteristics and application background of the five practical superconducting materials, and the applicability and feasibility of the selected superconducting materials are demonstrated. Second, the initial structural parameters of the SM are obtained by finite element method (FEM). In addition, the influence of structural parameters of SM on the performance of SSG is analyzed by simulation. Then, an optimal algorithm combining response surface methodology (RSM) and particle swarm optimization (PSO) is proposed to optimize the structure of SM in order to give full play to the advantages of SM. The simulated results verify that the proposed optimal algorithm is feasible and effective. Finally, the prototype of SM is made by the optimized size, and the SM is tested at a low temperature to obtain the critical temperature and critical current of the SM; the experimental results verify that the designed SM can meet the requirements of SSG.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

A modified scheil approach for nucleation-dependent solidification pathways

As-solidified microstructures of near-eutectic alloys often contain multiple primary phases that are not expected from equilibrium phase diagrams. Such microstructures are caused by cooling-rate-dependent solidification pathways, a factor not captured by the Scheil–Gulliver model or variations thereof. Here, we present a model and algorithm that incorporate the critical nucleation undercooling for each solid phase into the Scheil–Gulliver model. We hypothesize that the non-equilibrium microstructure formation is primarily governed by a nucleation-competition mechanism. This mechanism accounts for both stable/metastable phase selection and primary-phase formation within eutectic regions driven by asymmetric nucleation barriers. The model is validated against a hypereutectic Al-Fe alloy, where it successfully reproduces the observed microstructural constituents, revealing the key dependencies of solidification microstructure on nucleation kinetics. Applicability to multicomponent systems is demonstrated through a hypereutectic Al–Fe–Si ternary alloy, where the model successfully predicts divorced eutectic microstructures and the associated oscillatory solidification pathways along univariant lines. As a result, the proposed framework establishes a nucleation-dependent computational approach for interpreting and predicting solidification microstructures.

Alloy design↗

Performance Modeling of In Situ Rendering

With the push to exascale, in situ visualization and analysis will continue to play an important role in high performance computing. Tightly coupling in situ visualization with simulations constrains resources for both, and these constraints force a complex balance of trade-offs. A performance model that provides an a priori answer for the cost of using an in situ approach for a given task would assist in managing the trade-offs between simulation and visualization resources. In this work, we present new statistical performance models, based on algorithmic complexity, that accurately predict the run-time cost of a set of representative rendering algorithms, an essential in situ visualization task. To train and validate the models, we conduct a performance study of an MPI+X rendering infrastructure used in situ with three HPC simulation applications. We then explore feasibility issues using the model for selected in situ rendering questions.

Larsen, Matthew↗

WE-EF-207-09: Single-Scan Dual-Energy CT Using Primary Modulation

Purpose: Compared with conventional CT, dual energy CT (DECT) provides better material differentiation but requires projection data with two different effective x-ray spectra. Current DECT scanners use either a two-scan setting or costly imaging components, which are not feasible or available on open-gantry cone-beam CT systems. We propose a hardware-based method which utilizes primary modulation to enable single-scan DECT on a conventional CT scanner. The CT imaging geometry of primary modulation is identical to that used in our previous method for scatter removal, making it possible for future combination with effective scatter correction on the same CT scanner. Methods: We insert an attenuation sheet with a spatially-varying pattern - primary modulator-between the x-ray source and the imaged object. During the CT scan, the modulator selectively hardens the x-ray beam at specific detector locations. Thus, the proposed method simultaneously acquires high and low energy data. High and low energy CT images are then reconstructed from projections with missing data via an iterative CT reconstruction algorithm with gradient weighting. Proof-of-concept studies are performed using a copper modulator on a cone-beam CT system. Results: Our preliminary results on the Catphan(c) 600 phantom indicate that the proposed method for single-scan DECT is able to successfully generate high-quality high and low energy CT images and distinguish different materials through basis material decomposition. By applying correction algorithms and using all of the acquired projection data, we can reconstruct a single CT image of comparable image quality to conventional CT images, i.e., without primary modulation. Conclusion: This work shows great promise in using a primary modulator to perform high-quality single-scan DECT imaging. Future studies will test method performance on anthropomorphic phantoms and perform quantitative analyses on image qualities and DECT decomposition accuracy. We will use simulations to optimize the modulator material and geometry parameters.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Using Neural Networks for Low Energy Reconstruction and Neutron Identification in the MicroBooNE LArTPC

Identifying and reconstructing final-state neutrons from neutrino interactions in Liquid Argon Time Projection Chambers (LArTPCs) will enhance future oscillation measurements by recovering missing energy and improving neutrino interaction channel identification. However, neutrons are challenging to reconstruct as the majority leave only small, isolated charge signatures known as blips. Here we present initial efforts to identify neutrons in the MicroBooNE LArTPC with low energy protons from neutron-argon inelastic interactions that present as blips below the traditional tracking threshold in the TPC. Unlike for tracks, there is no algorithmic method to determine direction for blips since they span only a few wires. Therefore, we developed and trained a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) to reconstruct the directionality of proton-induced blips, allowing us to separate signal from background by selecting blips that point back to the neutrino vertex. The model achieves a preliminary average angular resolution of 17 degrees when tested on a simulated sample of protons over 6 MeV in kinetic energy. This novel tool will enhance neutron detection in LArTPCs and expand a broad range of other low-energy physics searches such as for solar and supernova neutrinos.

Silva, Liani Isabel [Unlisted, US]↗

Gas-kinetic unified algorithm for hypersonic flows covering various flow regimes solving Boltzmann model equation in nonequilibrium effect

Based on the Gas-Kinetic Unified Algorithm (GKUA) directly solving the Boltzmann model equation, the effect of rotational non-equilibrium is investigated recurring to the kinetic Rykov model with relaxation property of rotational degrees of freedom. The spin movement of diatomic molecule is described by moment of inertia, and the conservation of total angle momentum is taken as a new Boltzmann collision invariant. The molecular velocity distribution function is integrated by the weight factor on the internal energy, and the closed system of two kinetic controlling equations is obtained with inelastic and elastic collisions. The optimization selection technique of discrete velocity ordinate points and numerical quadrature rules for macroscopic flow variables with dynamic updating evolvement are developed to simulate hypersonic flows, and the gas-kinetic numerical scheme is constructed to capture the time evolution of the discretized velocity distribution functions. The gas-kinetic boundary conditions in thermodynamic non-equilibrium and numerical procedures are studied and implemented by directly acting on the velocity distribution function, and then the unified algorithm of Boltzmann model equation involving non-equilibrium effect is presented for the whole range of flow regimes. The hypersonic flows involving non-equilibrium effect are numerically simulated including the inner flows of shock wave structures in nitrogen with different Mach numbers of 1.5-Ma-25, the planar ramp flow with the whole range of Knudsen numbers of 0.0009-Kn-10 and the three-dimensional re-entering flows around tine double-cone body.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

TU-EF-204-03: Task-Based KV and MAs Optimization for Radiation Dose Reduction in CT: From FBP to Statistical Model-Based Iterative Reconstruction (MBIR)

Purpose: The introduction of the highly nonlinear MBIR algorithm to clinical CT systems has made CNR an invalid metric for kV optimization. The purpose of this work was to develop a task-based framework to unify kV and mAs optimization for both FBP- and MBIR-based CT systems. Methods: The kV-mAs optimization was formulated as a constrained minimization problem: to select kV and mAs to minimize dose under the constraint of maintaining the detection performance as clinically prescribed. To experimentally solve this optimization problem, exhaustive measurements of detectability index (d’) for a hepatic lesion detection task were performed at 15 different mA levels and 4 kV levels using an anthropomorphic phantom. The measured d’ values were used to generate an iso-detectability map; similarly, dose levels recorded at different kV-mAs combinations were used to generate an iso-dose map. The iso-detectability map was overlaid on top of the iso-dose map so that for a prescribed detectability level d’, the optimal kV-mA can be determined from the crossing between the d’ contour and the dose contour that corresponds to the minimum dose. Results: Taking d’=16 as an example: the kV-mAs combinations on the measured iso-d’ line of MBIR are 80–150 (3.8), 100–140 (6.6), 120–150 (11.3), and 140–160 (17.2), where values in the parentheses are measured dose values. As a Result, the optimal kV was 80 and optimal mA was 150. In comparison, the optimal kV and mA for FBP were 100 and 500, which corresponded to a dose level of 24 mGy. Results of in vivo animal experiments were consistent with the phantom results. Conclusion: A new method to optimize kV and mAs selection has been developed. This method is applicable to both linear and nonlinear CT systems such as those using MBIR. Additional dose savings can be achieved by combining MBIR with this method. This work was partially supported by an NIH grant R01CA169331 and GE Healthcare. K. Li, D. Gomez-Cardona, M. G. Lubner: Nothing to disclose. P. J. Pickhardt: Co-founder, VirtuoCTC, LLC Stockholder, Cellectar Biosciences, Inc. G.-H. Chen: Research funded, GE Healthcare; Research funded, Siemens AX.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

A Novel Active Optimization Approach for Rapid and Efficient Design Space Exploration Using Ensemble Machine Learning

In this work, a novel design optimization technique based on active learning, which involves dynamic exploration and exploitation of the design space of interest using an ensemble of machine learning algorithms, is presented. In this approach, a hybrid methodology incorporating an explorative weak learner (regularized basis function model) that fits high-level information about the response surface and an exploitative strong learner (based on committee machine) that fits finer details around promising regions identified by the weak learner is employed. For each design iteration, an aristocratic approach is used to select a set of nominees, where points that meet a threshold merit value as predicted by the weak learner are selected for evaluation. In addition to these points, the global optimum as predicted by the strong learner is also evaluated to enable rapid convergence to the actual global optimum once the most promising region has been identified by the optimizer. Additionally, this methodology is first tested by applying it to the optimization of a two-dimensional multi-modal surface and, subsequently, to a complex internal combustion (IC) engine combustion optimization case with nine control parameters related to fuel injection, initial thermodynamic conditions, and in-cylinder flow. It is found that the new approach significantly lowers the number of function evaluations that are needed to reach the optimum design configuration (by up to 80%) when compared to conventional optimization techniques, such as particle swarm and genetic algorithm-based optimization techniques.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Database-wide hazard modelling of the onset of DIII-D tearing modes with field features

The rate of onset (hazard) of tearing modes is modelled probabilistically using statistical learning algorithms. Axisymmetric energy-density equilibrium fields are taken as raw high-dimensional input features which are reduced with principal component analysis. Signal processing of non-axisymmetric magnetics fluctuation array data provides the target information from which to learn. Model selection, visualization and calibration assessment procedures are detailed. Here, the analysis is deployed at large scale across the DIII-D tokamak database. Standard model selection criteria suggest that the energy-density post-processed feature is a better choice for modelling the onset rate compared to the non-processed equilibrium reconstruction solution. Two example applications of the learned rate function are demonstrated: (i) proximity-to-onset discharge monitoring and (ii) database analysis showing an (expected) observational global trend that the general hazard increases as a plasma performance metric increases. An important connection between the hazard function and its use as a conditional probability generator is reviewed in the Appendix.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Evaluating Sea Breezes and Associated Convective Cloud Evolution in the Model Gray Zone

We characterize convective clouds associated with sea‐breeze circulations (SBC) using multi‐agency observations and multi‐case ensemble model simulations. The focus is on assessing convective cloud lifecycle properties and their merging behavior, as well as the environmental conditions they are embedded in, particularly SBC features. In total, 46 SBC days over the Houston‐Galveston region are selected and simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model at a gray zone scale with a forecast‐like parameterization setup. Advanced techniques, including change‐point detection, a Lagrangian cloud tracking method, and a newly developed cell merging and splitting detection algorithm, are applied and/or developed for this study. Our findings indicate that the WRF model at 1 km grid spacing well represents the thermodynamic conditions over the region, as well as SBC timing and intensity. However, for the associated convective cells, WRF overestimates the 30‐dBZ echo top height, cell area, and maximum radar reflectivity compared to radar observations. This overestimation is potentially due to under‐resolved entrainment processes, an overestimated merging frequency, and the overestimation of updraft intensity. Furthermore, the model exhibits a deficiency in simulating congestus clouds, showing a more rapid transition from shallow to deep convection compared to observed behavior. Moreover, observations indicate stronger, deeper, and wider clouds when merging happens. Conversely, in simulations, the merging process does not necessarily lead to higher or longer‐lived cells, as many cases experience rapid and frequent merging and splitting which may result in more variance in convective updraft velocity during the convection lifetime.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Coherent correlation imaging for resolving fluctuating states of matter

Fluctuations and stochastic transitions are ubiquitous in nanometre-scale systems, especially in the presence of disorder. However, their direct observation has so far been impeded by a seemingly fundamental, signal-limited compromise between spatial and temporal resolution. Here we develop coherent correlation imaging (CCI) to overcome this dilemma. Our method begins by classifying recorded camera frames in Fourier space. Contrast and spatial resolution emerge by averaging selectively over same-state frames. Temporal resolution down to the acquisition time of a single frame arises independently from an exceptionally low misclassification rate, which we achieve by combining a correlation-based similarity metric with a modified, iterative hierarchical clustering algorithm. We apply CCI to study previously inaccessible magnetic fluctuations in a highly degenerate magnetic stripe domain state with nanometre-scale resolution. We uncover an intricate network of transitions between more than 30 discrete states. Our spatiotemporal data enable us to reconstruct the pinning energy landscape and to thereby explain the dynamics observed on a microscopic level. CCI massively expands the potential of emerging high-coherence X-ray sources and paves the way for addressing large fundamental questions such as the contribution of pinning and topology in phase transitions and the role of spin and charge order fluctuations in high-temperature superconductivity.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A reactant-coordinate-based approach to state-to-state differential cross sections for tetratomic reactions

A new algorithm is proposed to compute quantum mechanically state-to-state differential cross sections for reactions involving four atoms in full dimensionality. This algorithm, which is based on the propagation of an initial state specific wave packet exclusively in reactant coordinates, extracts the S-matrix elements in the product channel by first interpolating the time-dependent wave packet using a collocation method at selected time intervals on the product coordinate grid and then projecting out the contributions of all final product states. Here, this approach is efficient and accurate, particularly for reactions that are dominated by a product well or long-range interactions. Validation of this approach is demonstrated for the H 2 + OH → H + H 2 O reaction.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Performance of the CMS muon trigger system in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s} =$ 13 TeV

The muon trigger system of the CMS experiment uses a combination of hardware and software to identify events containing a muon. During Run 2 (covering 2015-2018) the LHC achieved instantaneous luminosities as high as 2 $\times$ 10$^{34}$cm$^{-2}$s$^{-1}$ while delivering proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s} =$ 13 TeV. The challenge for the trigger system of the CMS experiment is to reduce the registered event rate from about 40 MHz to about 1 kHz. Significant improvements important for the success of the CMS physics program have been made to the muon trigger system via improved muon reconstruction and identification algorithms since the end of Run 1 and throughout the Run 2 data-taking period. The new algorithms maintain the acceptance of the muon triggers at the same or even lower rate throughout the data-taking period despite the increasing number of additional proton-proton interactions in each LHC bunch crossing. In this paper, the algorithms used in 2015 and 2016 and their improvements throughout 2017 and 2018 are described. Measurements of the CMS muon trigger performance for this data-taking period are presented, including efficiencies, transverse momentum resolution, trigger rates, and the purity of the selected muon sample. This paper focuses on the single- and double-muon triggers with the lowest sustainable transverse momentum thresholds used by CMS. The efficiency is measured in a transverse momentum range from 8 to several hundred GeV.

Trigger detectors↗

A modified priority list-based MILP method for solving large-scale unit commitment problems

This paper studies the typical pattern of unit commitment (UC) results in terms of generator’s cost and capacity. A method is then proposed to combine a modified priority list technique with mixed integer linear programming (MILP) for UC problem. The proposed method consists of two steps. At the first step, a portion of generators are predetermined to be online or offline within a look-ahead period (e.g., a week), based on the demand curve and generator priority order. For the generators whose on/off status is predetermined, at the second step, the corresponding binary variables are removed from the UC MILP problem over the operational planning horizon (e.g., 24 hours). With a number of binary variables removed, the resulted problem can be solved much faster using the off-the-shelf MILP solvers, based on the branch-and-bound algorithm. In the modified priority list method, scale factors are designed to adjust the tradeoff between solution speed and level of optimality. It is found that the proposed method can significantly speed up the UC problem with minor compromise in optimality by selecting appropriate scale factors.

Ke, Xinda↗

Low-Cost Heliostat for High-Flux Small-Area Receivers (Final Technical Report)

This project analyzed a two-stage heliostat concept consisting of a tracking stage and a concentrating stage. The tracking stage uses mirrors mounted on a common drive that move to track the sun. The concentrating stage consists of stationary mirrors that each have a unique angle to direct rays towards a small-area, high-flux, point-focused receiver. By splitting the collection and concentrating process into two stages, multiple small, inexpensive mirrors can share a structure and be controlled by a single drive in the tracking stage. The project effort developed modeling techniques that were specifically relevant to this two-stage heliostat concept. Both field-level and unit-level models were developed. The field-level model does not explicitly consider unit-level losses which are predicted by the unit-level model and then integrated into the field-level model through a correlation referred to as an efficiency modifier. This approach is referred to as the two-model approach; the development and demonstration of this two-model approach for a multi-stage heliostat technology is a key outcome of this work. The field-level model is used to design a field that hits a specific design day power given a set of heliostat design parameters. An oversized field is simulated and then heliostat units are removed based on their annual energy production in order to generate the highest performing field. The field reduction procedure fits a smooth curve fit to annual energy production as a function of position in the field which has the effect of reducing the noise that is otherwise caused by the Monte Carlo ray tracing technique. This approach is referred to as the annual energy fit method and substantially reduces computational run time for a given field level modeling accuracy. The annual energy fit approach enables the selection of a properly sized, high-performing field using orders of magnitude fewer rays than would otherwise be possible and the development of this approach is a second key outcome of this work. These models are used within a genetic optimization algorithm in order to optimize the geometric parameters associated with a heliostat in order to achieve the lowest cost per unit of collected design day power. The cost modeling that underlies the optimization is a simple, scaling type analysis backed up by a much more detailed Design for Manufacture and Assembly (DFMA) analysis. Although the figure of merit used for optimization was not cost per mirror area, this metric is reasonable to use as a means of comparison. The optimally designed 500 kW design has a tracking mirror specific cost of $181.85/m 2 , which is significantly larger than the target value and also larger than the current state of the art. The cost of the torque-tube type linkages contributed substantially to the overall cost. Based on this observation, potentially attractive alternative design configuration utilizing a capstan type actuation system should be investigated. Finally, NREL compared the performance of the two-stage heliostat to the performance of a focused and different sized flat conventional heliostats and showed that, as expected, additional losses versus the convention heliostat caused by a worse cosine efficiency, two stages of reflection, and interstage interactions. The two-stage heliostat requires around 75% more reflective area than a flat 1x1 meter conventional heliostat (similar to a focused heliostat) and 40% more than a flat 2x2 meter conventional heliostat.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗