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The report of Task Group 100 of the AAPM: Application of risk analysis methods to radiation therapy quality management

The increasing complexity of modern radiation therapy planning and delivery challenges traditional prescriptive quality management (QM) methods, such as many of those included in guidelines published by organizations such as the AAPM, ASTRO, ACR, ESTRO, and IAEA. These prescriptive guidelines have traditionally focused on monitoring all aspects of the functional performance of radiotherapy (RT) equipment by comparing parameters against tolerances set at strict but achievable values. Many errors that occur in radiation oncology are not due to failures in devices and software; rather they are failures in workflow and process. A systematic understanding of the likelihood and clinical impact of possible failures throughout a course of radiotherapy is needed to direct limit QM resources efficiently to produce maximum safety and quality of patient care. Task Group 100 of the AAPM has taken a broad view of these issues and has developed a framework for designing QM activities, based on estimates of the probability of identified failures and their clinical outcome through the RT planning and delivery process. The Task Group has chosen a specific radiotherapy process required for “intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT)” as a case study. The goal of this work is to apply modern risk-based analysis techniques to this complex RT process in order to demonstrate to the RT community that such techniques may help identify more effective and efficient ways to enhance the safety and quality of our treatment processes. The task group generated by consensus an example quality management program strategy for the IMRT process performed at the institution of one of the authors. This report describes the methodology and nomenclature developed, presents the process maps, FMEAs, fault trees, and QM programs developed, and makes suggestions on how this information could be used in the clinic. The development and implementation of risk-assessment techniques will make radiation therapy safer and more efficient.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

The Impact of Alfvénic Shear Flow on Magnetic Reconnection and Turbulence

Magnetic reconnection is a fundamental and omnipresent energy conversion process in plasma physics. Novel observations of fields and particles from Parker Solar Probe (PSP) have shown the absence of reconnection in a large number of current sheets in the near-Sun solar wind. Using near-Sun observations from PSP encounters 4–11 (2020 January–2022 March), we investigate whether reconnection onset might be suppressed by velocity shear. We compare estimates of the tearing mode growth rate in the presence of shear flow for time periods identified as containing reconnecting current sheets versus nonreconnecting times, finding systematically larger growth rates for reconnection periods. Upon examination of the parameters associated with reconnection onset, we find that 85% of the reconnection events are embedded in slow, non-Alfvénic wind streams. We compare with fast, slow non-Alfvénic, and slow Alfvénic streams, finding that the growth rate is suppressed in highly Alfvénic fast and slow wind, and reconnection is not seen in these wind types, as would be expected from our theoretical expressions. These wind streams have strong Alfvénic flow shear, consistent with the idea of reconnection suppression by such flows. This could help explain the frequent absence of reconnection events in the highly Alfvénic, near-Sun solar wind observed by PSP. Finally, we find a steepening of both the trace and magnitude magnetic field spectra within reconnection periods in comparison to ambient wind. We tie this to the dynamics of relatively balanced turbulence within these reconnection periods and the potential generation of compressible fluctuations.

slow solar wind↗

Mapping tree height in complex terrain of northern China using ultra-high-resolution images

Tree height is a key parameter for estimating forest biomass and carbon sequestration. In recent years, notable progress has been made in mapping tree height using satellite imagery. However, existing tree height products show low accuracy in mountainous and complex terrains, and few studies typically addressed tree height estimations in mountain areas. This study examines the Mentougou district of Beijing, China, characterized by complex terrain and mountainous landscapes. We analyzed two methods for estimating tree height: one using only spectral features and another combining spectral features with topographic factors (elevation, slope, aspect). We used 3-m resolution PlanetScope 8-band multispectral imagery, with 710 field-measured individual tree heights averaged to obtain 471 pixel-level tree height values as ground-truth, to develop tree height prediction models using eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Random Forest (RF), and Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM) models. The results show that the XGBoost model consistently presented the highest accuracy for both methods evaluated. Specifically, the XGBoost model that combined spectral data with elevation and slope variables with an R² of 0.75 and an RMSE of 2.69 m. Using the XGBoost model, we generated the tree height map for the Mentougou area at 3 m resolution, showing tree heights ranging from 0.5 to 30.4 m, and the model’s prediction error standard deviations ranged from 2.50 to 4.71 m, indicating reliable performance across varied terrain. Additionally, we compared and evaluated the global tree height products, identifying limitations in the accuracy within complex terrains. This study demonstrates the potential for accurately predicting tree heights by combining high-resolution multispectral satellites with a terrain factor modeling approach.

Complex terrain↗

Modeling the partitioning of amphiphilic molecules and co-solvents in biomembranes

We report amphiphilic co-solvents can have a significant impact on the structure, organization and physical properties of lipid bilayers. Describing the mutual impact of partitioning and induced structure changes is therefore a crucial consideration for a range of topics such as anesthesia and other pharmacokinetic effects, as well as microbial solvent tolerance in the production of biofuels and other fermentation products, where molecules such as ethanol, butanol or acetic acid might be generated. Small-angle neutron scattering (SANS) is a key method for studying lipid and polymer bilayer structures, with many models for extracting bilayer structure (thickness, area per lipid etc.) from scattering data in use today. However, the molecular details of co-solvent partitioning are conflated with induced changes to bilayer structure, making interpretation and modeling of the scattering curves a challenge with the existing set of models. To address this, a model of a bilayer structure is presented which invokes a two-term partition constant accounting for the localization of the co-solvent within the bilayer. This model was validated using a series of SANS measurements of lipid vesicles in the presence of the co-solvent tetrahydrofuran (THF), showing several strategies of how to deploy the two-parameter partition constant model to describe scattering data and extract both structure and partitioning information from the data. Molecular dynamics simulations are then used to evaluate assumptions of the model, provide additional molecular scale details and illustrate its complementary nature to the data fitting procedure. This approach results in estimates of the partition coefficient for THF in 1,2-dimyristoyl-sn-glycero-3-phosphocholine at 35°C, along with an estimate of the fraction of THF residing in the hydrophobic core of the membrane. The authors envision that this model will be applicable to a wide range of other bilayer/amphiphile interactions and provide the associated code needed to implement this model as a fitting algorithm for scattering data in the SasView suite.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Surface Sampling Techniques for the Canister Deposition Field Demonstration

This report describes plans for dust sampling and analysis for the multi-year Canister Deposition Field Demonstration. The demonstration will use three commercial 32PTH2 NUHOMS welded stainless steel storage canisters, which will be stored at an ISFSI site in Advanced Horizontal Storage Modules. One canister will be unheated; the other two will have heaters to achieve canister surface temperatures that match, to the degree possible, spent nuclear fuel (SNF) loaded canisters with heat loads of 10 kW and 40 kW. Surface sampling campaigns will take place on a yearly or bi-yearly basis. The goal of the planned dust sampling and analysis is to determine important environmental parameters that impact the potential occurrence of stress corrosion cracking on SNF dry storage canisters. Specifically, the size, morphology, and composition of the deposited dust and salt particles will be quantified, as well as the soluble salt load per unit area and the rate of deposition, as a function of canister surface temperature, location, time, and orientation. Sampling locations on the canister surface will nominally include 25 locations, corresponding to 5 circumferential locations at each of the 5 longitudinal locations. At each sampling location, a 2x2 sampling grid (containing 4 sample cells) will be painted onto the metal surface. During each sampling campaign, two samples at each sampling location will be collected, in a specific routine to measure both periodic (yearly or bi-yearly) and cumulative deposition rates. For each sample, a wet and a dry sample will be collected. Wet samples will be analyzed to determine the composition of the soluble salt fraction and to estimate salt loading per unit area. Dry samples will be analyzed to assess particle size, morphology, mineralogy, and identity (e.g. for floral/faunal fragments). The data generated by this proposed sampling plan will provide detailed information on dust and salt aerosol deposits on spent nuclear fuel canister surfaces. The anticipated results include information regarding particle compositions, size distributions, and morphologies, in addition to particle deposition rates as a function of canister surface location, orientation, time, and temperature. The information gathered during the Canister Deposition Field Demonstration is critical for ongoing efforts to develop a detailed understanding of the potential for stress corrosion cracking on SNF dry storage canisters

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Application of the Redlich-Kister expansion for estimating the density of molten fluoride psuedo-ternary salt systems of nuclear industry interest

The development of next-generation molten salt reactors relies on accurate knowledge of the thermophysical properties of the candidate coolant and fueled molten salts. These thermophysical properties include density, viscosity, thermal conductivity, and heat capacity. Because of difficulties in measuring thermophysical properties of molten salts, there are many gaps in the current state of thermophysical property knowledge of these salts, particularly those that contain actinides or beryllium. Therefore, leveraging modeling techniques to estimate unknown molten salt thermophysical properties and guide future experimental measurements has high value for the nuclear industry. Here, the densities of molten fluoride pseudo-ternary salt systems, which are of interest to the nuclear industry, were estimated using Redlich-Kister expansion and Muggianu interpolation techniques. The pseudo-ternary systems considered for estimation in this study were NaF-LiF-ZrF 4 , LiF-BeF 2 -ZrF 4 , LiF-BeF 2 -ThF 4 , NaF-LiF-BeF 2 , NaF-KF-BeF 2 , NaF-ZrF 4 -UF 4 , and NaF-BeF 2 -UF 4 . This Redlich-Kister estimation approach accounts for nonideal mixing behavior based on pseudo-binary subsystem interaction parameters determined from experimentally measured pseudo-binary system density data sets. The Redlich-Kister estimation was compared with the method of additive molar volumes, which assumes ideal mixing. Additionally, the Redlich-Kister approach was used to determine previously unknown binary and ternary interaction parameters based on experimentally measured density data sets for select pseudo-ternary salt systems. The results of this study show improvement in density estimation using the Redlich-Kister approach for all systems considered compared with estimation by additive molar volumes. Furthermore, this analysis allowed for the estimation of nonideal density behavior in experimentally unstudied ZrF 4 -UF 4 and BeF 2 -UF 4 , as well as the quantification of ternary interaction in NaF-LiF-ZrF 4 , NaF-BeF 2 -UF 4 , and NaF-ZrF 4 -UF 4 .

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

The Ground Flash Fraction Retrieval Algorithm Employing Differential Evolution: Simulations and Applications

The ability to estimate the fraction of ground flashes in a set of flashes observed by a satellite lightning imager, such as the future GOES-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM), would likely improve operational and scientific applications (e.g., severe weather warnings, lightning nitrogen oxides studies, and global electric circuit analyses). A Bayesian inversion method, called the Ground Flash Fraction Retrieval Algorithm (GoFFRA), was recently developed for estimating the ground flash fraction. The method uses a constrained mixed exponential distribution model to describe a particular lightning optical measurement called the Maximum Group Area (MGA). To obtain the optimum model parameters (one of which is the desired ground flash fraction), a scalar function must be minimized. This minimization is difficult because of two problems: (1) Label Switching (LS), and (2) Parameter Identity Theft (PIT). The LS problem is well known in the literature on mixed exponential distributions, and the PIT problem was discovered in this study. Each problem occurs when one allows the numerical minimizer to freely roam through the parameter search space; this allows certain solution parameters to interchange roles which leads to fundamental ambiguities, and solution error. A major accomplishment of this study is that we have employed a state-of-the-art genetic-based global optimization algorithm called Differential Evolution (DE) that constrains the parameter search in such a way as to remove both the LS and PIT problems. To test the performance of the GoFFRA when DE is employed, we applied it to analyze simulated MGA datasets that we generated from known mixed exponential distributions. Moreover, we evaluated the GoFFRA/DE method by applying it to analyze actual MGAs derived from low-Earth orbiting lightning imaging sensor data; the actual MGA data were classified as either ground or cloud flash MGAs using National Lightning Detection Network[TM] (NLDN) data. Solution error plots are provided for both the simulations and actual data analyses.

Koshak, William↗

Aerodynamic Stability and Performance of Next-Generation Parachutes for Mars Descent

The Low Density Supersonic Decelerator Project is developing a next-generation supersonic parachute for use on future Mars missions. In order to determine the new parachute configuration, a wind tunnel test was conducted at the National Full-scale Aerodynamics Complex 80- by 120-foot Wind Tunnel at the NASA Ames Research Center. The goal of the wind tunnel test was to quantitatively determine the aerodynamic stability and performance of various canopy configurations in order to help select the design to be flown on the Supersonic Flight Dynamics tests. Parachute configurations included the diskgap- band, ringsail, and ringsail-variant designs referred to as a disksail and starsail. During the wind tunnel test, digital cameras captured synchronized image streams of the parachute from three directions. Stereo hotogrammetric processing was performed on the image data to track the position of the vent of the canopy throughout each run. The position data were processed to determine the geometric angular history of the parachute, which were then used to calculate the total angle of attack and its derivatives at each instant in time. Static and dynamic moment coefficients were extracted from these data using a parameter estimation method involving the one-dimensional equation of motion for a rotation of parachute. The coefficients were calculated over all of the available canopy states to reconstruct moment coefficient curves as a function of total angle of attack. From the stability curves, useful metrics such as the trim total angle of attack and pitch stiffness at the trim angle could be determined. These stability metrics were assessed in the context of the parachute's drag load and geometric porosity. While there was generally an inverse relationship between the drag load and the stability of the canopy, the data showed that it was possible to obtain similar stability properties as the disk-gap-band with slightly higher drag loads by appropriately tailoring the geometric porosity distribution.

Low Density Supersonic Decelerator (LDSD)↗

Modeling and Simulation of High-Frequency Solar Irradiance

As the use of solar power as a source of electricity is increasing, so is the interest in modeling radiation at high temporal resolutions. High-dimensional remote sensing data products depend on cloud cover variability, atmosphere aerosol levels, and other atmospheric parameters. Because of weather fronts and aerosols, it is difficult to quantify solar power variability based on distributed solar networks. The global horizontal irradiance (GHI) component in the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) is available at a 30-min time resolution. The algorithm proposed in this paper produces 1-min-resolution GHI samples at locations where NSRDB data are available. The synthetic irradiance datasets are produced using log-additive non-Gaussian mixture models and resampling techniques. The model is trained over historical data, and predicted values are compared with in situ data. This approach allows for estimating the solar irradiance at subhourly temporal resolutions, while featuring variability for locations where measurements are otherwise not available.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Reactive Transport Modeling of Hydrogen Production from Serpentinization of Olivine

Hydrogen production from serpentinization of ultramafic rocks represents a promising natural pathway for generating carbon-free energy, yet its kinetics and controlling factors remain incompletely understood. A key challenge in advancing serpentinization research lies in the heterogeneity of porosity and permeability in rocks, which leads to nonuniform fluid velocity fields, as well as uncertainties in estimating reactive surface area and identifying appropriate mineral reaction equilibria. Additional complexities arise from the role of dissolved SiO 2 , Fe 2+ /Fe 3+ partitioning, and the limited effect of pH variations within the strongly alkaline regime on hydrogen yields. These challenges hinder straightforward extrapolation from laboratory tests to practical applications of hydrogen production from natural rocks. Here, in this work, we address these questions using a simulation-based reactive transport modeling framework calibrated against controlled laboratory experiments reported elsewhere. The model couples geochemical kinetics, multiphase flow, and mineralogical feedbacks, enabling systematic evaluation of how surface area, dissolved silica concentration, Fe redox state, temperature, and pressure govern serpentinization and H2 generation. We find that surface area exerts the strongest control on reaction rates and hydrogen yields, while Fe 2+ /Fe 3+ ratios act as secondary modulators. Elevated dissolved silica concentrations suppress hydrogen production but accelerate serpentine precipitation, whereas increasing pH beyond 12 within the strongly alkaline regime produces only marginal gains. Finally, we demonstrate that integrating targeted experiments with calibrated simulations offers a powerful and efficient approach for predicting hydrogen yields and assessing parameter trade-offs in industrial-scale applications. This integration can substantially reduce the experimental burden while improving predictive capability, thereby enhancing both the mechanistic understanding and the practical feasibility of hydrogen production from serpentinization.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Cathodic Protection Modeling for Hanford Underground Double-Shell Tank Farms

Hanford stores millions of gallons of radioactive and chemically hazardous waste from the production of weapon materials in tank farms consisting of underground carbon-steel storage tanks surrounded by reinforced concrete. Six of these Hanford tank farms use double-shell storage tanks (DSTs). The DST farms were constructed from 1968 to 1986 with a planned 40–50 year design life, so some are already operating beyond their initial life expectancy. Ultrasonic testing (UT) has indicated significant thinning on the bottom of the secondary (outer) liner of these tanks, believed to arise from groundwater intrusion driving concrete side corrosion. There is no direct access to the steel/concrete interface between the tank and the concrete pad, making it difficult to apply a chemical-based mitigation strategy or to conduct repairs, but cathodic protection (CP) is a possible method to inhibit further concrete-side corrosion. Hanford already uses CP to protect below grade steel piping within the tank farms and connected to the tanks, but this system was not designed to protect the tank bottoms. CP design must account for the structures surrounding the DSTs, including the steel reinforcing bars (rebar) within the concrete pad and vault, various process lines, and the existing CP system. In this study, finite element analysis (FEA) modeling was carried out to simulate CP protection of 1) a single tank and CP anode to develop options for modeling the rebar and to compare to a simpler circuit model and 2) the entire Hanford AN tank farm as a representative example consisting of seven tanks, associated piping, and both existing and new CP anodes. Both circuit and FEA models predict that significant protective current could be delivered to the bottoms of the tanks with the addition of tank-protection anodes below the depth of the tanks. Simulations with only the existing pipe-protection anodes active confirmed that only a very small current to the tank bottoms is predicted under present conditions. Multiple simplified representations of the dome and wall rebar were tested to reduce the computational complexity of the tank-farm simulations, resulting in modeling the rebar as edge elements with a prescribed effective circumference that matches the real rebar surface area. The geometry of the rebar is also simplified into horizontal hoops around the tank walls and radial rebar over the dome with increased effective circumference to retain the target surface area. This simplification was found to greatly reduce the complexity and solution time of the models without large changes in current distributions, especially to the tank bottom. A range of values were tested for model parameters such as soil and concrete resistivities and polarization resistance to investigate their impact on the current and electric potential distributions. Depending on the parameters used, FEA simulations predict some risk of overprotection, particularly on the piping system; since overprotection can also lead to surface damage associated with hydrogen gas generation at the interface (e.g. hydrogen embrittlement or damage to coatings), this needs to be considered when refining the design of the new CP system. Comparison between the FEA models and the circuit model representation demonstrated that the circuit model could not match the predicted FEA current distribution, even when using the exact same surface areas. This discrepancy appeared to be at least partly attributable to the impact of the relative positions of the tank components and anodes to each other and to the ground surface. The FEA model accounts for the relative positions since it solves the governing equations in three dimensions, but the circuit model cannot account for the positioning. In particular, the circuit model underpredicts the current to the tank bottom and overpredicts the current to the dome compared to FEA for the baseline geometry. The FEA models omitted the electrically isolated rebar in the bottom concrete slab. However, a circuit based stray current model estimated that only 2.1% of the total current through the slab would stray into the rebar, corresponding to ~0.21 A for a target current density of 2 mA/ft2 to the tank bottom. The estimated corrosion driven by this amount of stray current is predicted to yield a lifetime of >400 years for the minimum rebar diameter, assuming an acceptable cross-section area loss of 10%.

d'Entremont, Anna [Savannah River National Laborat↗

Global Surface Solar Energy Anomalies Including El Nino and La Nina Years

This paper synthesizes past events in an attempt to define the general magnitude, duration, and location of large surface solar anomalies over the globe. Surface solar energy values are mostly a function of solar zenith angle, cloud conditions, column atmospheric water vapor, aerosols, and surface albedo. For this study, solar and meteorological parameters for the 10-yr period July 1983 through June 1993 are used. These data were generated as part of the Release 3 Surface meteorology and Solar Energy (SSE) activity under the NASA Earth Science Enterprise (ESE) effort. Release 3 SSE uses upgraded input data and methods relative to previous releases. Cloud conditions are based on recent NASA Version-D International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) global satellite radiation and cloud data. Meteorological inputs are from Version-I Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) reanalysis data that uses both weather station and satellite information. Aerosol transmission for different regions and seasons are for an 'average' year based on historic solar energy data from over 1000 ground sites courtesy of Natural Resources Canada (NRCan). These data are input to a new Langley Parameterized Shortwave Algorithm (LPSA) that calculates surface albedo and surface solar energy. That algorithm is an upgraded version of the 'Staylor' algorithm. Calculations are performed for a 280X280 km equal-area grid system over the globe based on 3-hourly input data. A bi-linear interpolation process is used to estimate data output values on a 1 X 1 degree grid system over the globe. Maximum anomalies are examined relative to El Nino and La Nina events in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Maximum year-to-year anomalies over the globe are provided for a 10-year period. The data may assist in the design of systems with increased reliability. It may also allow for better planning for emergency assistance during some atypical events.

Whitlock, C. H.↗

Miniature Sapphire Acoustic Resonator - MSAR

A room temperature sapphire acoustics resonator incorporated into an oscillator represents a possible opportunity to improve on quartz ultrastable oscillator (USO) performance, which has been a staple for NASA missions since the inception of spaceflight. Where quartz technology is very mature and shows a performance improvement of perhaps 1 dB/decade, these sapphire acoustic resonators when integrated with matured quartz electronics could achieve a frequency stability improvement of 10 dB or more. As quartz oscillators are an essential element of nearly all types of frequency standards and reference systems, the success of MSAR would advance the development of frequency standards and systems for both groundbased and flight-based projects. Current quartz oscillator technology is limited by quartz mechanical Q. With a possible improvement of more than x 10 Q with sapphire acoustic modes, the stability limit of current quartz oscillators may be improved tenfold, to 10(exp -14) at 1 second. The electromagnetic modes of sapphire that were previously developed at JPL require cryogenic temperatures to achieve the high Q levels needed to achieve this stability level. However sapphire fs acoustic modes, which have not been used before in a high-stability oscillator, indicate the required Q values (as high as Q = 10(exp 8)) may be achieved at room temperature in the kHz range. Even though sapphire is not piezoelectric, such a high Q should allow electrostatic excitation of the acoustic modes with a combination of DC and AC voltages across a small sapphire disk (approximately equal to l mm thick). The first evaluations under this task will test predictions of an estimated input impedance of 10 kilohms at Q = 10(exp 8), and explore the Q values that can be realized in a smaller resonator, which has not been previously tested for acoustic modes. This initial Q measurement and excitation demonstration can be viewed similar to a transducer converting electrical energy to mechanical energy and back. Such an electrostatic tweeter type excitation of a mechanical resonator will be tested at 5 MHz. Finite element calculation will be applied to resonator design for the desired resonator frequency and optimum configuration. The experiment consists of the sapphire resonator sandwiched between parallel electrodes. A DC+AC voltage can be applied to generate a force to act on a sapphire resonator. With the frequency of the AC voltage tuned to the sapphire resonator frequency, a resonant condition occurs and the sapphire Q can be measured with a high-frequency impedance analyzer. To achieve high Q values, many experimental factors such as vacuum seal, gas damping effects, charge buildup on the sapphire surface, heat dissipation, sapphire anchoring, and the sapphire mounting configuration will need attention. The effects of these parameters will be calculated and folded into the resonator design. It is envisioned that the initial test configuration would allow for movable electrodes to check gap spacing dependency and verify the input impedance prediction. Quartz oscillators are key components in nearly all ground- and space-based communication, tracking, and radio science applications. They play a key role as local oscillators for atomic frequency standards and serve as flywheel oscillators or to improve phase noise in high performance frequency and timing distribution systems. With ultra-stable performance from one to three seconds, an Earth-orbit or moon-based MSAR can enhance available performance options for spacecraft due to elimination of atmospheric path degradation.

Wang, Rabi T.↗

Global CO2 Distributions over Land from the Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT)

January 2009 saw the successful launch of the first space-based mission specifically designed for measuring greenhouse gases, the Japanese Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT). We present global land maps (Level 3 data) of column-averaged CO2 concentrations (X(sub CO2)) derived using observations from the GOSAT ACOS retrieval algorithm, for July through December 2009. The applied geostatistical mapping approach makes it possible to generate maps at high spatial and temporal resolutions that include uncertainty measures and that are derived directly from the Level 2 observations, without invoking an atmospheric transport model or estimates of CO2 uptake and emissions. As such, they are particularly well suited for comparison studies. Results show that the Level 3 maps for July to December 2009 on a lO x 1.250 grid, at six-day resolution capture much of the synoptic scale and regional variability of X(sub CO2), in addition to its overall seasonality. The uncertainty estimates, which reflect local data coverage, X(sub CO2) variability, and retrieval errors, indicate that the Southern latitudes are relatively well-constrained, while the Sahara Desert and the high Northern latitudes are weakly-constrained. A probabilistic comparison to the PCTM/GEOS-5/CASA-GFED model reveals that the most statistically significant discrepancies occur in South America in July and August, and central Asia in September to December. While still preliminary, these results illustrate the usefulness of a high spatiotemporal resolution, data-driven Level 3 data product for direct interpretation and comparison of satellite observations of highly dynamic parameters such as atmospheric CO2.

Hammerling, Dorit M.↗

Optimisation of the Search for CP-symmetry Violation at the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment

The Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE) is a next-generation long baseline experiment, which will be situated in South Dakota. Its detectors will utilise liquid-argon time projection chamber technology, which is able to capture neutrino interactions with an incredible spatial and calorimetric resolution. With what will become the world’s most intense neutrino beam, a highly capable near detector, and four (10kt fducial mass) far detector modules, DUNE will be able to achieve an ambitious physics programme. Most notably, DUNE will determine whether charge-parity symmetry is broken in neutrino oscillations - a finding that would have significant implications for the understanding of the matter-antimatter asymmetry in our Universe.This thesis presents the optimisation of a CP-violation analysis at DUNE using thePandora pattern-recognition software. The analysis assumes a 3.5 year exposure (1.36 × 1023 protons on target) to a neutrino and an antineutrino beam (7 year total). Only the predicted data of the far detector modules is used; near detector samples are not included. The initial sensitivity to CP-violation is found to be 3.8σ+0.9σ−1.1σ in an estimate that includes oscillation parameter uncertainties, systematic uncertainties and statistical fluctuations, and assumes a normal-ordering of the neutrino mass hierarchy. The performance of the Pandora event reconstruction is linked to that of the analysis, which is found to be limited by the reconstruction of the initial track-like region of electrons and photons. The ShowerRefinement algorithm is developed in response to this and its implementation into the analysis workflow results in an improved sensitivity to CP-violation of 4.6σ+0.9σ−1.0σ. With a perfected neutrino interaction vertex placement, this is further increased to 5.1σ+1.0σ−1.1σ.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Light quark Yukawas in triboson final states

Triple heavy vector boson production, pp → VVV (V = W, Z), has recently been observed for the first time. We propose that precision measurements of this process provide an excellent probe of the first generation light quark Yukawa couplings. Modified quark interactions with the off-shell Higgs in this process lead to a rapid growth of the partonic cross sections with energy, which manifests in an enhanced p T distribution of the final state leptons and quarks. We quantify this effect and estimate the present and future 2σ sensitivity to the up, down, and strange Yukawas. In particular, we find that HL-LHC can reach $\mathscr{O}$(400) sensitivity to the down Yukawa relative to the Standard Model value, improving the current sensitivity in this process by a factor of 10, and which can be further improved to $\mathscr{O}$(30) at FCC-hh. This is competitive with and complementary to constraints from global fits and other on-shell probes of the first generation Yukawas. The triboson sensitivity at HL-LHC corresponds to probing dimension-6 SMEFT operators suppressed by an $\mathscr{O}$(1) TeV scale, similarly to other LHC Higgs probes.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Isovector charges of the nucleon from 2+1-flavor QCD with clover fermions

Here, we present high-statistics estimates of the isovector charges of the nucleon from four 2 + 1-flavor ensembles generated using Wilson-clover fermions with stout smearing and tree-level tadpole improved Symanzik gauge action at lattice spacings 𝑎 ≈ 0.127 and 0.09 fm and with 𝑀 𝜋 ≈ 280 and 170 MeV. The truncated solver method with bias correction and the coherent source sequential propagator construction are used to cost-effectively achieve 𝑂⁡(1⁢0 5 ) measurements on each ensemble. Using these data, the analysis of two-point correlation functions is extended to include four states in the fits, and of three-point functions to three states. Control over excited-state contamination in the calculation of the nucleon mass, the mass gaps between excited states, and in the matrix elements is demonstrated by the consistency of estimates using this multistate analysis of the spectral decomposition of the correlation functions and from simulations of the three-point functions at multiple values of the source-sink separation. The results for all three charges, 𝑔 𝐴 , 𝑔 𝑆 , and 𝑔 𝑇 , are in good agreement with calculations done using the clover-on-HISQ lattice formulation with similar values of the lattice parameters.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Plasma IMS Composition Measurements for Europa and the Other Galilean Moons

NASA and ESA are planning the joint Europa Jupiter System Mission (EJSM) to the Jupiter system with specific emphasis to Europa and Ganymede, respectively. The Japanese Space Agency is also planning an orbiter mission to explore Jupiter's magnetosphere and the Galilean satellites. For NASA's Jupiter Europa Orbiter (JEO) we are developing the 3D Ion Mass Spectrometer (IMS) with two main goals which can also be applied to the other Galilean moons, 1) measure the plasma interaction between Europa and Jupiter's magnetosphere and 2) infer the 4 pi surface composition to trace elemental and significant isotopic levels. The first goal supports the magnetometer (MAG) measurements, primarily directed at detection of Europa's sub-surface ocean, while the second gives information about transfer of material between the Galilean moons, and between the moon surfaces and subsurface layers putatively including oceans. The measurement of the interactions for all the Galilean moons can be used to trace the in situ ion measurements of pickup ions back to either Europa's or Ganymede's surface from the respectively orbiting spacecraft. The IMS instrument, being developed under NASA's Astrobiology Instrument Development Program, would maximally achieve plasma measurement requirements for JEO and EJSM while moving forward our knowledge of Jupiter system composition and source processes to far higher levels than previously envisaged. The composition of the global surfaces of Europa and Ganymede can be inferred from the measurement of ejected neutrals and pick-up ions using at minimum an in situ payload including MAG and IMS also fully capable of meeting Level 1 mission requirements for ocean detection and survey. Elemental and isotopic analysis of potentially extruded oceanic materials at the moon surfaces would further support the ocean objectives. These measurements should be made from a polar orbiting spacecraft about Europa or Ganymede at height 100 km. The ejecta produced by sputtering of the surfaces of Europa and Ganymede has been shown to be representative of the surface composition. Level 2 science on surface geology and composition can then be further enhanced by addition of the following: 3D Ion Neutral Mass Spectrometer (INNS), 3D plasma electron spectrometer (ELS), and hot plasma energetic particle instrument. The measurement approach is to alternate between times measuring pickup ions and times measuring plasma and magnetic field parameters along the spacecraft trajectory. By measuring the pickup ion energy, arrival direction and mass-per-charge, the ion can be traced back along the ejection trajectory to the approximate area of origin if the 3-D electric field and magnetic field are known. In situ observations of plasma flow velocities and vector magnetic fields can be used to determine the local convective electric field (E = -VXB) along the spacecraft trajectory. By combining this information with models of the magnetospheric interaction with Europa, one can generate 3D maps of the electric and magnetic field and compute the trajectories of the pickup ions back to the surface or exospheric points of origin. In the case of Ganymede there is the additional complexity of its own internal dipole magnetic field, while Io's volcanic activity introduces the complexity of a highly structured denser atmosphere. Callisto with its less globally extended exosphere will have a simpler interaction than for Europa (i.e., more like our moon). We will discuss these differences in light of the above proposed technique. Finally, the INNS observations and neutral exosphere models are needed to estimate production rates of pickup ions. The hot plasma measurements are needed to correct for sputtering rates which can be time dependent and electron plasma observations for electron impact ionization rates. Instrument characteristics, field-of-view requirements, modes of operation and effects of radiation on instrument functionality will be discussed.

Sittler, Edward↗