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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,297 records · Page 72

DeepDriveMD: Deep-Learning Driven Adaptive Molecular Simulations for Protein Folding

Simulations of biological macromolecules are important in understanding the physical basis of complex processes such as protein folding. However, even with increasing computational capacity and specialized architectures, the ability to simulate protein folding at atomistic scales still remains challenging. This stems from the dual aspects of high dimensionality of protein conformational landscapes, and the inability of atomistic molecular dynamics (MD) simulations to sufficiently sample these landscapes to observe folding events. Machine learning/deep learning (ML/DL) techniques, when combined with atomistic MD simulations offer the opportunity to potentially overcome these limitations by: (1) effectively reducing the dimensionality of MD simulations to automatically build latent representations that correspond to biophysically relevant reaction coordinates (RCs), and (2) driving MD simulations to automatically sample potentially novel conformational states based on these RCs. We examine how coupling DL approaches with MD simulations can lead to effective approaches to fold small proteins on supercomputers. In particular, we study the computational costs and effectiveness of scaling DL-coupled MD workflows implemented using RADICAL-Cybertools in folding two prototypical systems, namely Fs-peptide and the fast-folding variant of the villin head piece protein. We demonstrate that a DL-coupled MD workflow is able to effectively learn latent representations and drive adaptive simulations. Compared to traditional MD-based approaches, our approach achieves an effective performance gain in sampling the folded states by at least 2.3x. Together, our study provides quantitative basis to understand how coupling DL approaches to MD simulations, can lead to effective performance gains and reduced times to solution on supercomputing resources.

Lee, Hyungro↗

A score-based diffusion model approach for adaptive learning of stochastic partial differential equation solutions

In this paper, we propose a novel framework for adaptively learning the time-evolving solutions of stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs) using score-based diffusion models within a recursive Bayesian inference setting. SPDEs play a central role in modeling complex physical systems under uncertainty, but their numerical solutions often suffer from model errors and reduced accuracy due to incomplete physical knowledge and environmental variability. To address these challenges, we encode the governing physics into the score function of a diffusion model using simulation data and incorporate observational information via a likelihood-based correction in a reverse-time stochastic differential equation. This enables adaptive learning through iterative refinement of the solution as new data becomes available. To improve computational efficiency in high-dimensional settings, we introduce the ensemble score filter, a training-free approximation of the score function designed for real-time inference. Numerical experiments on benchmark SPDEs demonstrate the accuracy and robustness of the proposed method under sparse and noisy observations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Spatial-Temporal Recurrent Graph Neural Networks for Fault Diagnostics in Power Distribution Systems

Fault diagnostics are extremely important to decide proper actions toward fault isolation and system restoration. The growing integration of inverter-based distributed energy resources imposes strong influences on fault detection using traditional overcurrent relays. This paper utilizes emerging graph learning techniques to build new temporal recurrent graph neural network models for fault diagnostics. The temporal recurrent graph neural network structures can extract the spatial-temporal features from data of voltage measurement units installed at the critical buses. From these features, fault event detection, fault type/phase classification, and fault location are performed. Compared with previous works, the proposed temporal recurrent graph neural networks provide a better generalization for fault diagnostics. Moreover, the proposed scheme retrieves the voltage signals instead of current signals so that there is no need to install relays at all lines of the distribution system. Therefore, the proposed scheme is generalizable and not limited by the number of relays installed. The effectiveness of the proposed method is comprehensively evaluated on the Potsdam microgrid and IEEE 123-node system in comparison with other neural network structures.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

LC-Opt: Benchmarking Reinforcement Learning and Agentic AI for End-to-End Liquid Cooling Optimization in Data Centers

Liquid cooling is critical for thermal management in high-density data centers with the rising AI workloads. However, machine learning-based controllers are essential to unlock greater energy efficiency and reliability, promoting sustainability. We present LC-Opt, a Sustainable Liquid Cooling (LC) benchmark environment, for reinforcement learning (RL) control strategies in energy-efficient liquid cooling of high-performance computing (HPC) systems. Built on the baseline of a high-fidelity digital twin of Oak Ridge National Lab's Frontier Supercomputer cooling system, LC-Opt provides detailed Modelica-based end-to-end models spanning site-level cooling towers to data center cabinets and server blade groups. RL agents optimize critical thermal controls like liquid supply temperature, flow rate, and granular valve actuation at the IT cabinet level, as well as cooling tower (CT) setpoints through a Gymnasium interface, with dynamic changes in workloads. This environment creates a multi-objective real-time optimization challenge balancing local thermal regulation and global energy efficiency, and also supports additional components like a heat recovery unit (HRU). We benchmark centralized and decentralized multi-agent RL approaches, demonstrate policy distillation into decision and regression trees for interpretable control, and explore LLM-based methods that explain control actions in natural language through an agentic mesh architecture designed to foster user trust and simplify system management. LC-Opt democratizes access to detailed, customizable liquid cooling models, enabling the ML community, operators, and vendors to develop sustainable data center liquid cooling control solutions.

Naug, Avisek [Hewlett Packard Enterprise]↗

Cluster-Graph Fingerprinting: A Framework for Quantitative Analysis of Machine-Learned Interatomic Model Training and Simulation Data

Machine-learned interatomic models represent a significant advancement in simulation methods, extending the predictive ability of first-principles methods to previously inaccessible length and time scales. However, the data-driven nature of these models can lead to difficult-to-detect errors that can compromise prediction accuracy. To address this challenge, we introduce a novel fingerprinting approach based on the Chebyshev Interaction Model for Efficient Simulation (ChIMES) ML-IAM graph-based descriptor. Our strategy enables efficient and statistically rigorous analysis of system configurations used in ML-IAM training and those generated by their application, e.g., in molecular dynamics simulations. We demonstrate that these fingerprints can effectively assess novelty of a configuration relative to an existing data set and determine dissimilarity among individual configurations, which are two key tasks in workflows for active learning-based ML-IAM training, data set curation, and on-the-fly uncertainty quantification.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Generative learning for slow manifolds and bifurcation diagrams

In dynamical systems characterized by separation of time scales, the approximation of so called “slow manifolds”, on which the long term dynamics lie, is a useful step for model reduction. Initializing on such slow manifolds is a useful step in modeling, since it circumvents fast transients, and is crucial in multiscale algorithms (like the equation-free approach) alternating between fine scale (fast) and coarser scale (slow) simulations. In a similar spirit, when one studies the infinite time dynamics of systems depending on parameters, the system attractors (e.g., its steady states) lie on bifurcation diagrams (curves for one-parameter continuation, and more generally, on manifolds in state parameter space. Sampling these manifolds gives us representative attractors (here, steady states of ODEs or PDEs) at different parameter values. Algorithms for the systematic construction of these manifolds (slow manifolds, bifurcation diagrams) are required parts of the “traditional” numerical nonlinear dynamics toolkit. In more recent years, as the field of Machine Learning develops, conditional score-based generative models (cSGMs) have been demonstrated to exhibit remarkable capabilities in generating plausible data from target distributions that are conditioned on some given label. It is tempting to exploit such generative models to produce samples of data distributions (points on a slow manifold, steady states on a bifurcation surface) conditioned on (consistent with) some quantity of interest (QoI, observable). In this work, we present a framework for using cSGMs to quickly (a) initialize on a low-dimensional (reduced-order) slow manifold of a multi-time-scale system consistent with desired value(s) of a QoI (a “label”) on the manifold, and (b) approximate steady states in a bifurcation diagram consistent with a (new, out-of-sample) parameter value. This conditional sampling can help uncover the geometry of the reduced slow-manifold and/or approximately “fill in” missing segments of steady states in a bifurcation diagram. Finally, the quantity of interest, which determines how the sampling is conditioned, is either known a priori or identified using manifold learning-based dimensionality reduction techniques applied to the training data.

Dynamical systems↗

Securing Grid-interactive Efficient Buildings (GEB) through Cyber Defense and Resilient System (CYDRES)

The DOE CYDRES project is driven by the urgent need to address critical research gaps in the domain of cyber-physical security of smart buildings, including Grid-interactive Efficient Buildings (GEBs). CYDRES, a real-time advanced building resilient platform, aims to enhance the cyber-attack-immune capabilities of buildings through multi-layered prevention, detection, and adaptation mechanisms. CYDRES consists of five key modules: a multi-layer network analyzer, an Automatic Fault Detection, Diagnosis, and Prognosis (AFDDP) framework, an intelligent mode selector, a cyber-resilient control framework, and a situation awareness platform. The Network Analyzer employs a data-driven framework that includes a protocol state learning tool and a CRF (Conditional Random Field) command validator. In Hardware-In-the-Loop (HIL) testbeds, it achieved 100% detection accuracy with a false alarm rate of 3%, validating its efficacy in identifying selected cyber-attacks. The AFDDP framework leverages pattern matching, PCA (Principal Component Analysis)-based strategies, and a DBN (Dynamic Bayesian Network)-based fault diagnosis approach to pinpoint the causes of physical system abnormalities using Building Automation System (BAS) data. In HIL experiments, the AFDDP module attained a detection accuracy of over 95% with a false alarm rate below 7%. Additionally, the fault detector utilized machine learning (Random Forest) and deep learning (Multi-Layer Perceptron) methods with acoustic sensor data to achieve a 100% fault detection accuracy in Heating, Ventilation, and Air-Conditioning (HVAC) equipment. The Mode Selector offered real-time impact analysis, allowing immediate actions to protect BASs in the face of emerging threats. The cyber-resilient control framework included an adaptive Model Predictive Control (MPC) and a measurement compensator, reducing temperature violations by up to 94% and improving the total demand flexibility by up to 70% in HIL experiments. Such HIL experiments covered a cyber-attack case and a physical fault case, showcasing CYDRES’ efficiency in maintaining operational continuity during threats. The situation awareness platform in Grafana enhanced real-time threat detection and response visualization, augmenting the operational awareness for building operators. CYDRES demonstrated high technical effectiveness in various test scenarios, particularly in HIL environments. The project's phased development approach ensured efficient use of resources, highlighting its practical feasibility and readiness for commercialization. By enhancing the security and resilience of building operations, CYDRES represents a significant advance in mitigating risks associated with cyber-physical systems, thereby enhancing public confidence in the safety of modern building infrastructure. Future directions for the project include expanding testing protocols, refining AFDDP methodologies, exploring more comprehensive resilient control strategies, and testing in real commercial buildings.

42 ENGINEERING↗

2022 American Conference on Neutron Scattering (ACNS 2022)

The 11th American Conference on Neutron Scattering (ACNS 2022) will be held on June 5-9, 2022, in Boulder, CO. The Conference will provide essential information on the breadth and depth of current neutron-related research worldwide. Hosted by the Neutron Scattering Society of America, this year’s Conference will feature a combination of invited and contributed talks, poster sessions, and tutorials. Topics of the conference are: Advances in Neutron Facilities, Instrumentation and Software: Developments in sources, instrumentation, sample environments and control software. Hard Condensed Matter: Magnetism, correlated metals, quantum/topological materials, superconductors, ferroelectrics, multiferroics, glasses, and disorder phenomena. Submissions outlining examples of neutron scattering in industrial and engineering applications involving hard condensed matter systems are also encouraged. Soft Matter: Neutron studies of soft materials and related fields including in situ and in operando studies. Polymers, surfactants, emulsions, gels, nanoparticles, colloidal suspensions and more. Submissions of computational studies or applications of machine learning beneficial to neutron scattering experiments, as well as examples of neutron scattering in industrial and engineering applications are strongly encouraged. Biology, Biophysics and Biotechnology: Neutron studies of biological and biologically relevant systems. Proteins, bio membranes, biological assemblies, natural materials, nucleic acids, drug-delivery platforms and biomedical systems. Submissions of computational studies or applications of machine learning beneficial to biological neutron scattering experiments, as well as examples of neutron scattering in applied research involving biological systems, are strongly encouraged. Materials Chemistry and Energy: Neutron-based studies of functional materials and materials for energy applications. Examples include porous materials such as metal organic frameworks (MOFs), zeolites; phosphors; novel pigments; electrolytes; catalysts; ionic conductors/cathode materials; photovoltaic materials (hybrid perovskites); thermoelectrics; magnetocalorics/electrocalorics. Structural Materials and Engineering: Neutron scattering studies of materials and engineering processes including structural materials, concrete and metals, as well as engineering processes including combustion, corrosion, additive manufacturing, and others. Neutron Physics: Fundamental physical studies of the neutron and related areas. Emerging Applications in Neutron Scattering: Machine Learning and Data Science: Advances in computing power have contributed to rapidly evolving machine learning and data science fields that can be leveraged to the benefit of the neutron scattering community. The purpose of this session is to highlight recent advances in machine learning and data science and to serve as the foundation of a parallel data and computation track highlighting computation advances and applications in neutron scattering throughout the conference.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Exploring Anomalous PM 2.5 from Wildfires and Dust Storms using Data and Services at NASA GES DISC

The presence of fine particles in the atmosphere with a diameter of less than 2.5 µm, called particulate matter 2.5 (PM 2.5 ), poses a significant threat to human health as a criteria air pollutant. Fortunately, NASA's Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) provides easy access to several PM 2.5 concentration products. These datasets include the reanalysis of global hourly and monthly aerosol components including PM 2.5 data from the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), as well as 3-hourly real-time ensemble forecasts of PM 2.5 from the Hazardous Air Quality Ensemble System (HAQES). The HAQES products are developed by the George Mason University Air Quality Laboratory as part of NASA's Health Air Quality Applied Science Team (HAQAST). The GES DISC is actively collaborating with scientists in the HAQAST program to further expand air quality data collections. Two new datasets are currently being archived: one is the machine learning-based global hourly PM 2.5 derived from MERRA-2; the other is the localized data (NO 2 , O 3 , and PM 2.5 ) time series derived from NASA's GEOS Composition Forecasting (GEOS-CF) system. In this presentation, we will explore the spatial patterns and long-distance transport characteristics of elevated PM 2.5 during extreme pollution events, such as the June 2023 Canadian wildfires, which are still active at the time of writing; and severe spring dust storms in 2023 over Asia. To gain comprehensive insights, we will utilize various PM 2.5 data in conjunction with satellite-observed aerosol data from TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) on Sentinel-5P. The primary focus of this presentation will be to demonstrate effective use of data tools and services to visualize and explore extreme air pollution phenomena. Additionally, we will provide guidance on how users can download specific data of interest, facilitating further analysis and research in this critical area.

air quality↗

Advances in genetic tools for metabolic engineering of non-conventional yeasts

Non-conventional yeasts are emerging as powerful alternatives to Saccharomyces cerevisiae for metabolic engineering, owing to their innate stress tolerance, broad substrate utilization, and distinctive metabolic capabilities. These attributes position them as promising chassis for producing biofuels, pharmaceuticals, and specialty chemicals. This review synthesizes recent advances in genetic toolkits for four such species—Pichia kudriavzevii (Issatchenkia orientalis), Starmerella bombicola, Debaryomyces hansenii, and Pachysolen tannophilus—highlighting progress across plasmid architectures (episomal and integrative), identification of autonomously replicating sequences and centromeric elements, and the development of safe-harbor genomic loci. We summarize promoter and terminator libraries enabling tunable expression, the expansion of auxotrophic and antifungal selection markers with recycling strategies, and the rapid adaptation of CRISPR-based systems (Cas9 and Cas12a) with optimized guide RNA expression, multiplex editing, and approaches that enhance homologous recombination (e.g., KU70/80 disruption). We also review landing-pad platforms for modular, repeated integrations and transposon-based tools (e.g., piggyBac) that facilitate multigene pathway assembly. Collectively, these innovations are accelerating design-build-test-learn cycles and enabling precise, scalable engineering of non-conventional yeasts. Remaining challenges—including limited species-specific episomal systems, variable transformation efficiencies, genome-stability concerns, and alternative codon usage—define clear priorities for future toolkit development. Together, these advances and open needs chart a path toward robust, sustainable biomanufacturing using diverse non-conventional yeast chassis.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Embracing the fourth Industrial Revolution - Challenges, Opportunities and Path Forward for Propulsion

The aerospace industry is at a point where components are reaching design maturity and performance improvements are incremental. Aggressive goals to achieve sustainability and the threat of climate change necessitate a new paradigm. An artificial intelligence (AI) approach that enables revolutionary changes in system architecture, mission analysis and performance metrics is needed. The growing interest and development in the field of machine learning presents an opportunity to speed up by 10X or more the discovery, analysis and development of aerospace systems using artificial intelligence. Through IDEAS (Intelligent Design and Engineering of Aerospace Systems) we are embarking on a research and development effort that addresses this opportunity. The objective of IDEAS is to enable design of systems based on requirements. We discuss possible approaches to generating data, training models and applying them to near term applications. Results of recent workshops with industry, academia and other agencies to identify challenges to adopting AI and machine learning are presented.

Machine learning↗

Embracing the Fourth Industrial Revolution - Challenges, Opportunities and Path Forward for Propulsion

The aerospace industry is at a point where components are reaching design maturity and performance improvements are incremental. Aggressive goals to achieve sustainability and the threat of climate change necessitate a new paradigm. An artificial intelligence (AI) approach that enables revolutionary changes in system architecture, mission analysis and performance metrics is needed. The growing interest and development in the field of machine learning presents an opportunity to speed up by 10X or more the discovery, analysis and development of aerospace systems using artificial intelligence. Through IDEAS (Intelligent Design and Engineering of Aerospace Systems) we are embarking on a research and development effort that addresses this opportunity. The objective of IDEAS is to enable design of systems based on requirements. We discuss possible approaches to generating data, training models and applying them to near term applications. Results of recent workshops with industry, academia and other agencies to identify challenges to adopting AI and machine learning are presented.

Machine learning↗

Future Model-Based Systems Engineering Vision and Strategy Bridge for NASA

A vision for the future of model-based systems engineering (MBSE) at NASA in 2029 and a strategy bridge towards that future are presented. Strategic thinking and leading change concepts were used to analyze reports and presentations on global trends and visionary thinking about the future of systems and digital engineering. The context, strategic time horizon, stakeholders, strategic challenges, strategic advantages, driving forces, and opportunities were considered. The analysis resulted in a future vision of MBSE that shows what NASA systems engineers and digital machines will do to perform rapid, extraordinary, and unprecedented missions. The NASA systems engineer, in this future vision, works with a global project team in a virtual and collaborative environment, engineers the system, and uses digital approaches as the routine and default way of working. The digital machines provide data-driven and automated mission designs; have a backbone of program and project management, systems engineering, and product life-cycle management; and are a knowledge-sharing infrastructure. The NASA systems engineer and the systems engineering team are envisioned to use digital machines to plan and perform rapid exploration missions, develop a digital twin that lasts across the life cycle, and develop enduring and adaptable systems. NASA has an engineering enterprise and a life-cycle management framework that endure, adapt, and respond. A strategy bridge based on the Baldrige Criteria for Performance Excellence Framework and lessons learned from a recent MBSE initiative illuminates a way forward from today to this desired future. The bridge lays out a strategy for leaders and recommends investments of today for immediate benefits and for benefits in 2029.

model-based systems engineering, digital engineeri↗

A Barrier-Certificated Reinforcement Learning Approach for Enhancing Power System Transient Stability

Increasing integration of renewable resources brings more flexibility and poses new challenges to modern power systems, leading to highly nonlinear and complex dynamics. Here, this paper aims to provide a general solution framework to traditional control problems, such as frequency control and voltage control, which attempt to maintain the stability of either synchronous generators-governed or inverter-governed systems when subjected to a disturbance and simultaneously guarantee operational constraints, providing a complete complement to existing works on control design. Building on reinforcement learning (RL) and control barrier functions, the framework includes two subsystems, i.e., a model-free controller and a barrier-certification system, which discover RL-based control actions and sequentially filter them using a barrier certificate to satisfy operational constraints. Calculating a barrier function is generally challenging for a complex power system. This is addressed by representing the barrier function using neural networks (NNs) and data-based approaches. An adaptive method is introduced to certify the neural barrier function that perseveres barrier conditions, which is more compatible with online implementation. The proposed framework synthesizes a stabilizing controller that satisfies predefined safety regions. The effectiveness of the proposed framework is demonstrated via several comparative case studies.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Transient Data Library of Solar Grid Integrated Distributed System

This submission contains an open-source library of transient events in distributed system with high solar PV. The library includes the collected data, related documents and scripts for loading the data. The data library is built for transient event detection and machine learning based analysis algorithm development. The data was collected via both field test and software simulation. The units for the data are included in the data file headers for each data series. A text editor or spreadsheet software, such as Excel, and Matlab is required to view the data.

algorithms↗

Advanced Metallic Thermal Protection System Development

A new Adaptable, Robust, Metallic, Operable, Reusable (ARMOR) thermal protection system (TPS) concept has been designed, analyzed, and fabricated. In addition to the inherent tailorable robustness of metallic TPS, ARMOR TPS offers improved features based on lessons learned from previous metallic TPS development efforts. A specific location on a single-stage-to-orbit reusable launch vehicle was selected to develop loads and requirements needed to design prototype ARMOR TPS panels. The design loads include ascent and entry heating rate histories, pressures, acoustics, and accelerations. Additional TPS design issues were identified and discussed. An iterative sizing procedure was used to size the ARMOR TPS panels for thermal and structural loads as part of an integrated TPS/cryogenic tank structural wall. The TPS panels were sized to maintain acceptable temperatures on the underlying structure and to operate under the design structural loading. Detailed creep analyses were also performed on critical components of the ARMOR TPS panels. A lightweight, thermally compliant TPS support system (TPSS) was designed to connect the TPS to the cryogenic tank structure. Four 18-inch-square ARMOR TPS panels were fabricated. Details of the fabrication process are presented. Details of the TPSS for connecting the ARMOR TPS panels to the externally stiffened cryogenic tank structure are also described. Test plans for the fabricated hardware are presented.

Blosser, M. L.↗

Immunity-Based Aircraft Fault Detection System

In the study reported in this paper, we have developed and applied an Artificial Immune System (AIS) algorithm for aircraft fault detection, as an extension to a previous work on intelligent flight control (IFC). Though the prior studies had established the benefits of IFC, one area of weakness that needed to be strengthened was the control dead band induced by commanding a failed surface. Since the IFC approach uses fault accommodation with no detection, the dead band, although it reduces over time due to learning, is present and causes degradation in handling qualities. If the failure can be identified, this dead band can be further A ed to ensure rapid fault accommodation and better handling qualities. The paper describes the application of an immunity-based approach that can detect a broad spectrum of known and unforeseen failures. The approach incorporates the knowledge of the normal operational behavior of the aircraft from sensory data, and probabilistically generates a set of pattern detectors that can detect any abnormalities (including faults) in the behavior pattern indicating unsafe in-flight operation. We developed a tool called MILD (Multi-level Immune Learning Detection) based on a real-valued negative selection algorithm that can generate a small number of specialized detectors (as signatures of known failure conditions) and a larger set of generalized detectors for unknown (or possible) fault conditions. Once the fault is detected and identified, an adaptive control system would use this detection information to stabilize the aircraft by utilizing available resources (control surfaces). We experimented with data sets collected under normal and various simulated failure conditions using a piloted motion-base simulation facility. The reported results are from a collection of test cases that reflect the performance of the proposed immunity-based fault detection algorithm.

Dasgupta, D.↗

Survival analysis of localized prostate cancer with deep learning

In recent years, data-driven, deep-learning-based models have shown great promise in medical risk prediction. By utilizing the large-scale Electronic Health Record data found in the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs, the largest integrated healthcare system in the United States, we have developed an automated, personalized risk prediction model to support the clinical decision-making process for localized prostate cancer patients. This method combines the representative power of deep learning and the analytical interpretability of parametric regression models and can implement both time-dependent and static input data. To collect a comprehensive evaluation of model performances, we calculate time-dependent C-statistics C td over 2-, 5-, and 10-year time horizons using either a composite outcome or prostate cancer mortality as the target event. The composite outcome combines the Prostate-Specific Antigen (PSA) test, metastasis, and prostate cancer mortality. Our longitudinal model Recurrent Deep Survival Machine (RDSM) achieved C td 0.85 (0.83), 0.80 (0.83), and 0.76 (0.81), while the cross-sectional model Deep Survival Machine (DSM) attained C td 0.85 (0.82), 0.80 (0.82), and 0.76 (0.79) for the 2-, 5-, and 10-year composite (mortality) outcomes, respectively. In addition to estimating the survival probability, our method can quantify the uncertainty associated with the prediction. The uncertainty scores show a consistent correlation with the prediction accuracy. We find PSA and prostate cancer stage information are the most important indicators in risk prediction. Our work demonstrates the utility of the data-driven machine learning model in prostate cancer risk prediction, which can play a critical role in the clinical decision system.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗