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DOE OSTI2024

A Machine Learning Initializer for Newton-Raphson AC Power Flow Convergence

Power flow computations are fundamental to many power system studies. Obtaining a converged power flow case is not a trivial task especially in large power grids due to the non-linear nature of the power flow equations. One key challenge is that the widely used Newton based power flow methods are sensitive to the initial voltage magnitude and angle estimates, and a bad initial estimate would lead to non-convergence. This paper addresses this challenge by developing a random-forest (RF) machine learning model to provide better initial voltage magnitude and angle estimates towards achieving power flow convergence. This method was implemented on a real ERCOT 6102 bus system under various operating conditions. By providing better Newton-Raphson initialization, the RF model precipitated the solution of 2,106 cases out of 3,899 non-converging dispatches. These cases could not be solved from flat start or by initialization with the voltage solution of a reference case. Finally, results obtained from the RF initializer performed better when compared with DC power flow initialization, Linear regression, and Decision Trees.

random forest↗

DOE OSTI2020

The Specific Carbohydrate Diet and Diet Modification as Induction Therapy for Pediatric Crohn’s Disease: A Randomized Diet Controlled Trial

Background: Crohn’s disease (CD) is a chronic inflammatory intestinal disorder associated with intestinal dysbiosis. Diet modulates the intestinal microbiome and therefore has a therapeutic potential. The aim of this study is to determine the potential efficacy of three versions of the specific carbohydrate diet (SCD) in active Crohn’s Disease. Methods: 18 patients with mild/moderate CD (PCDAI 15–45) aged 7 to 18 years were enrolled. Patients were randomized to either SCD, modified SCD(MSCD) or whole foods (WF) diet. Patients were evaluated at baseline, 2, 4, 8 and 12 weeks. PCDAI, inflammatory labs and multi-omics evaluations were assessed. Results: Mean age was 14.3 ± 2.9 years. At week 12, all participants (n = 10) who completed the study achieved clinical remission. The C-reactive protein decreased from 1.3 ± 0.7 at enrollment to 0.9 ± 0.5 at 12 weeks in the SCD group. In the MSCD group, the CRP decreased from 1.6 ± 1.1 at enrollment to 0.7 ± 0.1 at 12 weeks. In the WF group, the CRP decreased from 3.9 ± 4.3 at enrollment to 1.6 ± 1.3 at 12 weeks. In addition, the microbiome composition shifted in all patients across the study period. While the nature of the changes was largely patient specific, the predicted metabolic mode of the organisms increasing and decreasing in activity was consistent across patients. Conclusions: This study emphasizes the impact of diet in CD. Each diet had a positive effect on symptoms and inflammatory burden; the more exclusionary diets were associated with a better resolution of inflammation.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Data-assisted combustion simulations with dynamic submodel assignment using random forests

This investigation outlines a data-assisted approach that employs random forest classifiers for local and dynamic submodel assignment in turbulent-combustion simulations. This method is demonstrated in simulations of a single-element GOX/GCH4 rocket combustor; a priori as well as a posteriori assessments are conducted to (i) evaluate the accuracy and adjustability of the classifier for targeting different quantities of interest (QoIs), and (ii) assess improvements, resulting from the data-assisted combustion model assignment, in predicting target QoIs during simulation runtime. Results from the a priori study show that random forests, trained with local flow properties as input variables and combustion model errors as training labels, assign three different combustion models – finite-rate chemistry (FRC), flamelet progress variable (FPV) model, and inert mixing (IM) – with reasonable classification performance even when targeting multiple QoIs. Applications in a posteriori studies demonstrate improved predictions from data-assisted simulations, in temperature and CO mass fraction, when compared with monolithic FPV calculations. An additional a posteriori data-assisted simulation of a modified configuration demonstrates that the present approach can be successfully applied to different configurations, as long as thermophysical behavior can be represented by the training data. Furthermore, these results demonstrate that this data-driven framework holds promise for dynamic combustion submodel assignments in reacting flow simulations.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Source Analysis of Ozone Pollution in Liaoyuan City’s Atmosphere Based on Machine Learning Models and HYSPLIT Clustering Method

Firstly, this study investigates the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of the ozone (O 3 ) pollution in Liaoyuan City using monitoring data from 2015 to 2024. Then, three machine learning models (ML)—random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), and artificial neural network (ANN)—are employed to quantify the influence of meteorological and non-meteorological factors on O 3 concentrations. Finally, the HYSPLIT clustering method and CMAQ model are utilized to analyze inter-regional transport characteristics, identifying the causes of O 3 pollution. The results indicate that O 3 pollution in Liaoyuan exhibits a distinct seasonal pattern, with the highest concentrations found in spring and summer, peaking in the afternoon. Among the three ML models, the random forest model demonstrates the best predictive performance (R 2 = 0.9043). Feature importance identifies NO 2 as the primary driving factor, followed by meteorological conditions in the second quarter and land surface characteristics. Furthermore, regional transport significantly contributes to O 3 pollution, with approximately 80% of air mass trajectories in heavily polluted episodes originating from adjacent industrial areas and the sea. The combined effects of transboundary precursors and O 3 transport with local emissions and meteorological conditions further increase the O 3 pollution level. This study highlights the need to strengthen coordinated NO X and VOCs emission reductions and enhance regional joint prevention and control strategies in China.

HYSPLIT clustering↗

NASA NTRS2007

Implementation of Leak Test Methods for the International Space Station (ISS) Elements, Systems and Components

The International Space Station (ISS has Qualification and Acceptance Environmental Test Requirements document, SSP 41172 that includes many environmental tests such as Thermal vacuum & Cycling, Depress/Repress, Sinusoidal, Random, and Acoustic Vibration, Pyro Shock, Acceleration, Humidity, Pressure, Electromatic Interference (EMI)/Electromagnetic Compatibility (EMCO), etc. This document also includes (13) leak test methods for Pressure Integrity Verification of the ISS Elements, Systems, and Components. These leak test methods are well known, however, the test procedure for specific leak test method shall be written and implemented paying attention to the important procedural steps/details that, if omitted or deviated, could impact the quality of the final product and affect the crew safety. Such procedural steps/details for different methods include, but not limited to: - Sequence of testing, f or example, pressurization and submersion steps for Method I (Immersion); - Stabilization of the mass spectrometer leak detector outputs fo r Method II (vacuum Chamber or Bell jar); - Proper data processing an d taking a conservative approach while making predictions for on-orbit leakage rate for Method III(Pressure Change); - Proper Calibration o f the mass spectrometer leak detector for all the tracer gas (mostly Helium) Methods such as Method V (Detector Probe), Method VI (Hood), Method VII (Tracer Probe), Method VIII(Accumulation); - Usage of visibl ility aides for Method I (Immersion), Method IV (Chemical Indicator), Method XII (Foam/Liquid Application), and Method XIII (Hydrostatic/Visual Inspection); While some methods could be used for the total leaka ge (either internal-to-external or external-to-internal) rate requirement verification (Vacuum Chamber, Pressure Decay, Hood, Accumulation), other methods shall be used only as a pass/fail test for individual joints (e.g., welds, fittings, and plugs) or for troubleshooting purposes (Chemical Indicator, Detector Probe, Tracer Probe, Local Vacuum Chamber, Foam/Liquid Application, and Hydrostatic/Visual Inspection). Any isolation of SSP 41172 requirements have led to either retesting of hardware or accepting a risk associated with the potential system or component pressure integrity problem during flight.

Underwood, Steve↗

NASA NTRS1993

Phased-mission system analysis using Boolean algebraic methods

Most reliability analysis techniques and tools assume that a system is used for a mission consisting of a single phase. However, multiple phases are natural in many missions. The failure rates of components, system configuration, and success criteria may vary from phase to phase. In addition, the duration of a phase may be deterministic or random. Recently, several researchers have addressed the problem of reliability analysis of such systems using a variety of methods. A new technique for phased-mission system reliability analysis based on Boolean algebraic methods is described. Our technique is computationally efficient and is applicable to a large class of systems for which the failure criterion in each phase can be expressed as a fault tree (or an equivalent representation). Our technique avoids state space explosion that commonly plague Markov chain-based analysis. A phase algebra to account for the effects of variable configurations and success criteria from phase to phase was developed. Our technique yields exact (as opposed to approximate) results. The use of our technique was demonstrated by means of an example and present numerical results to show the effects of mission phases on the system reliability.

Somani, Arun K.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Predicting protein functions from redundancies in large-scale protein interaction networks

Interpreting data from large-scale protein interaction experiments has been a challenging task because of the widespread presence of random false positives. Here, we present a network-based statistical algorithm that overcomes this difficulty and allows us to derive functions of unannotated proteins from large-scale interaction data. Our algorithm uses the insight that if two proteins share significantly larger number of common interaction partners than random, they have close functional associations. Analysis of publicly available data from Saccharomyces cerevisiae reveals >2,800 reliable functional associations, 29% of which involve at least one unannotated protein. By further analyzing these associations, we derive tentative functions for 81 unannotated proteins with high certainty. Our method is not overly sensitive to the false positives present in the data. Even after adding 50% randomly generated interactions to the measured data set, we are able to recover almost all (approximately 89%) of the original associations.

Proteins/chemistry/metabolism↗

NASA NTRS2002

Global Surface Temperature Change and Uncertainties Since 1861

The objective of this talk is to analyze the warming trend and its uncertainties of the global and hemi-spheric surface temperatures. By the method of statistical optimal averaging scheme, the land surface air temperature and sea surface temperature observational data are used to compute the spatial average annual mean surface air temperature. The optimal averaging method is derived from the minimization of the mean square error between the true and estimated averages and uses the empirical orthogonal functions. The method can accurately estimate the errors of the spatial average due to observational gaps and random measurement errors. In addition, quantified are three independent uncertainty factors: urbanization, change of the in situ observational practices and sea surface temperature data corrections. Based on these uncertainties, the best linear fit to annual global surface temperature gives an increase of 0.61 +/- 0.16 C between 1861 and 2000. This lecture will also touch the topics on the impact of global change on nature and environment. as well as the latest assessment methods for the attributions of global change.

Shen, Samuel S. P.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Analysis of subpixel registration

The area of subpixel accuracy in image registration and edge detection was studied. Two main directions of research were pursued, edge detection and matching based on the digital geometry of edges, and random field models for probablistic analysis of registration error. In the edge detection approach, error bounds and error probabilities were computed using theoretical models. Algorithms were developed and tests on simulated imagery. The methods appear promising for high accuracy edge position estimation and registration, though further refinement of the procedures is required. Using random field models, a statistical measure of the quality of the cross correlation peak as an estimate of the offset between a sensed and a reference image was developed. Simulations were performed to determine the validity of this estimte with real imagery and to study the results of interpolating digital correlation functions to estimate the translation offset to subpixel accuracy.

Berenstein, C. A.↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Method to Represent a Well in a Three‐Dimensional Discrete Fracture Network Model

Abstract In discrete fracture network (DFN) modeling, fractures are randomly generated and placed in the model domain. The rock matrix is considered impermeable. Small fractures and isolated fractures are often ignored to reduce computational expense. As a result, the rock matrix between fractures could be large and intersections may not be found between a well introduced in the model and the hydraulically connected fracture networks (fracture backbones). To overcome this issue, this study developed a method to conceptualize a well in a three‐dimensional (3D) DFN using two orthogonal rectangular fractures oriented along the well's axis. Six parameters were introduced to parameterize the well screen and skin zone, and to control the connectivity between the well and the fracture backbones. The two orthogonal fractures were discretized using a high‐resolution mesh to improve the quality of flow and transport simulations around and along the well. The method was successfully implemented within dfnWorks 2.0 (Hyman et al. 2015) to incorporate a well in a 3D DFN and to track particles leaving an injection well and migrating to a pumping well. Verification of the method against MODFLOW/MODPATH found a perfect match in simulated hydraulic head and particle tracking. Using three examples, the study showed that the method ensured the connectivity between wells and fracture backbones, and honored the physical processes of flow and transport along and around wells in DFNs. Recommendations are given for estimating the values of the six introduced well parameters in a real‐world case study.

Pham, Hai (ORCID:0000000310164394)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Approximate Dynamic Programming With Enhanced Off-Policy Learning for Coordinating Distributed Energy Resources

Herein this paper proposes an innovative approximate dynamic programming (ADP) method for distributed energy resource coordination with the loss of life of battery energy storage system (BESS) explicitly modeled. The dispatch policy is designed to account for both calendrical and cyclical aging effects on BESS, explicitly modeling the impacts of ambient temperature on BESS lifespan. The proposed ADP employs an adaptive critic method and enhanced off-policy deterministic policy gradient (DPG) strategy, addressing the limitations of the on-policy gradient-based ADP approaches, including inadequate exploration, low data usage, and computational complexity. In particular, a customized policy is proposed to guide the algorithm to explore some promising decisions and thereby improve exploration capability and learning efficiency compared to conventional DPG-based learning approaches, which may struggle to find a global optimum due to random noisy action-based exploration or require expert demonstration with extra effort. The proposed method is illustrated using the IEEE 123-node system and compared with the existing ADP methods to prove solution accuracy and demonstrate the effects of incorporating degradation models into control design. Case studies showed that the proposed ADP effectively coordinates DERs with a 10 times smaller optimization gap compared to existing methods, and the incorporation of the BESS life loss model ensures the expected lifespan and results in significant cost savings.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Compositions having reduced thermal conductivities and methods of making the same

The present disclosure relates to a composition that includes a film having a network of randomly aligned carbon nanotubes, where the carbon nanotubes have an average diameter between about 0.6 nm and about 2.0 nm and the carbon nanotubes form bundles having an average diameter between about 3 nm and about 50 nm. In addition, the composition is characterized by a power factor α 2 σ between 1 μW/mK 2 and about 3500 μW/mK 2 and by ZT=α 2 σT/k between about 0.02 and about 2.0 over a temperature range between about 100 K and about 500 K.

Blackburn, Jeffrey Lee↗

NASA NTRS1981

Evaluation of the procedure 1A component of the 1980 US/Canada wheat and barley exploratory experiment

Several techniques which use clusters generated by a new clustering algorithm, CLASSY, are proposed as alternatives to random sampling to obtain greater precision in crop proportion estimation: (1) Proportional Allocation/relative count estimator (PA/RCE) uses proportional allocation of dots to clusters on the basis of cluster size and a relative count cluster level estimate; (2) Proportional Allocation/Bayes Estimator (PA/BE) uses proportional allocation of dots to clusters and a Bayesian cluster-level estimate; and (3) Bayes Sequential Allocation/Bayesian Estimator (BSA/BE) uses sequential allocation of dots to clusters and a Bayesian cluster level estimate. Clustering in an effective method in making proportion estimates. It is estimated that, to obtain the same precision with random sampling as obtained by the proportional sampling of 50 dots with an unbiased estimator, samples of 85 or 166 would need to be taken if dot sets with AI labels (integrated procedure) or ground truth labels, respectively were input. Dot reallocation provides dot sets that are unbiased. It is recommended that these proportion estimation techniques are maintained, particularly the PA/BE because it provides the greatest precision.

Chapman, G. M.↗

DOE OSTI2017

On-the-Fly Generation of Differential Resonance Scattering Probability Distribution Functions for Monte Carlo Codes

Current Monte Carlo codes use one of three models: (1) the asymptotic scattering model, (2) the free gas scattering model, or (3) the S(α,β) model, depending on the neutron energy and the specific Monte Carlo code. This thesis addresses the consequences of using the free gas scattering model, which assumes that the neutron interacts with atoms in thermal motion in a monatomic gas in thermal equilibrium at material temperature, T. Most importantly, the free gas model assumes the scattering cross section is constant over the neutron energy range, which is usually a good approximation for light nuclei, but not for heavy nuclei where the scattering cross section may have several resonances in the epithermal region. Several researchers in the field have shown that the exact resonance scattering model is temperaturedependent, and neglecting the resonances in the lower epithermal range can under-predict resonance absorption due to the upscattering phenomenon mentioned above, leading to an over-prediction of keff by several hundred pcm. Existing methods to address this issue involve changing the neutron weights or implementing an extra rejection scheme in the free gas sampling scheme, and these all involve performing the collision analysis in the center-of-mass frame, followed by a conversion back to the laboratory frame to continue the random walk of the neutron. The goal of this paper was to develop a sampling methodology that (1) accounted for the energydependent scattering cross sections in the collision analysis and (2) was performed in the laboratory frame,avoiding the conversion to the center-of-mass frame. The energy dependence of the scattering cross section was modeled with even-ordered polynomials (2nd and 4th order) to approximate the scattering cross section in Blackshaw’s equations for the moments of the differential scattering PDFs. These moments were used to sample the outgoing neutron speed and angle in the laboratory frame on-the-fly during the random walk of the neutron. Results for criticality studies on fuel pin and fuel assembly calculations using methods developed in this dissertation showed very close comparison to results using the reference Dopplerbroadened rejection correction (DBRC) scheme.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Risk Assessment of Rare Events in Probabilistic Power Flow via Hybrid Multi-Surrogate Method

The risks associated with rare events threatening the security of power system operation are of paramount importance to power system planners and operators. To analyze the risks caused by high-impact, low-frequency rare events, an immensely large number of samples are typically required for the Monte-Carlo (MC) method on the high-fidelity power system model to achieve a sufficient accuracy, thereby rendering this approach computationally prohibitive. To handle this problem efficiently, it is desirable to construct a surrogate model for the power system response. However, the straightforward MC sampling of the low-fidelity surrogate can lead to biased results in the low-probability tail regions that are vital to risk assessment. Moreover, a single surrogate is unable to handle the topology uncertainties caused by random branch outages. To overcome these issues, we propose a hybrid multi-surrogate (HMS) method based on the polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) with low-probability tail events reevaluated by the high-fidelity model through a probabilistic analysis. This method improves the computational efficiency of the MC method for rare-event risk assessment by leveraging multi-fidelity models while retaining the desired accuracy. Simulations conducted in three test systems verify the excellent performances of the HMS method.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Lithium-Ion Battery Diagnostics Using Electrochemical Impedance via Machine-Learning

Diagnosing battery states such as health, state-of-charge, or temperature is crucial for ensuring the safety and reliability of electrochemical energy storage systems. While some states, such as temperature, may be measured using cheap sensors, accurate diagnosis of battery health metrics usually requires time-consuming performance measurements, making them infeasible for use in real-world operation. These health metrics can be measured during lab-testing and then estimated on-line using predictive life models or via state observer algorithms such as Kalman filters, but these predictive methods should be supplemented by actual measurement of battery health whenever possible to ensure reliability. Rapid measurement of battery health may be done by various types of fast diagnostic techniques such as electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS), which can be performed in only a few minutes and require only a fraction of the energy and power needed for a full charge and discharge measurement. But there is a substantial challenge for estimating battery health using EIS data, as EIS is sensitive to cell temperature, state-of-charge, current, and resting time in addition to health. Thus, utilizing EIS data to predict battery capacity requires correcting for all these additional variables, a task that is extremely difficult to handle analytically. This talk utilizes machine-learning methods to estimate the effectiveness of battery capacity prediction from EIS data, leveraging a data set of hundreds of EIS measurements recorded at varying temperature and state-of-charge throughout a 500-day aging study of 32 commercial, large-format NMC-Graphite lithium-ion batteries. Using EIS as input to machine-learning models is complicated by the nonlinear response of impedance to battery health, temperature, and state-of-charge, as well as the collinearity between the impedance response at neighboring frequencies, which can easily lead to overfit models. To train robust models, features from EIS data need to be extracted from the data or some subset of critical frequencies selected. Many approaches for extracting and selecting features from EIS data from electrochemical analysis and machine-learning fields were identified for analysis: using the entire raw spectra; selection of one, two, or many frequencies from the entire spectra; selecting interesting points from the EIS measurement using domain knowledge; fitting EIS with an equivalent-circuit model; calculating statistics on the raw impedance values; and reducing the dimensionality of the data using unsupervised linear (principal component analysis) and non-linear (uniform manifold approximation and projection) methods. These approaches were rigorously compared using a machine-learning pipeline approach, training linear, Gaussian process, and random forest regression models and quantifying performance using cross-validation as well as a held-out test set. An artificial neural network model trained on the raw spectra was also tested. Promising pipelines were fine-tuned via Bayesian hyperparameter optimization using cross-validation loss and training with class-specific weights to counter data set imbalance. The most reliable method for utilizing impedance in this work was the selection of two optimal frequencies through an exhaustive search, resulting in about 2% mean absolute error on test data for both Gaussian process and random forest model architectures. Interrogation of a variety of models reveals critical frequencies of 100 Hz and 103 Hz for this data set, though the optimal set of frequencies is not necessarily intuitive, i.e., the best performing models are not simply those that use impedance at frequencies that have the highest correlation to the relative discharge capacity. The best performing model is an ensemble model, which is able to predict battery capacity with 1.9% mean absolute error for unseen cells using impedance recorded at a variety of temperatures and states-of-charge.

battery↗

NASA NTRS2005

Regional Carbon Dioxide and Water Vapor Exchange Over Heterogeneous Terrain

In spite of setbacks due to forest fires, eviction after a change of landowners and unanticipated need to upgrade and replace much of the instrumentation, substantial progress has been made during the past three years, resulting in major new findings. Although most of the results are in manuscript form, three papers have been published and a fourth was recently submitted. The data has been subjected to extensive quality control. Extra attention has been devoted to the influence of tilt rotation and flux-calculation method, particularly with respect to nocturnal fluxes. Previous/standard methods for calculating nocturnal fluxes with moderate and strong stability are inadequate and lead to large random fluxes errors for individual records, due partly to inadvertent inclusion of mesoscale motions that strongly contaminant the estimation of fluxes by weak turbulence. Such large errors are serious for process studies requiring carbon dioxide fluxes for individual records, but are substantially reduced when averaging fluxes over longer periods as in calculation of annual NEE budgets. We have employed a superior method for estimating fluxes in stable conditions with a variable averaging width . Mesoscale fluxes are generally unimportant except for events and are generally not systematic or predictable. Mesoscale or regional models of our region are not able to reproduce important aspects of the diurnally varying wind field

Mahrt, Larry J.↗

DOE OSTI2019

Quantification of uncertainties in thermoelectric properties of materials from a first-principles prediction method: An approach based on Gaussian process regression

We present the electron-phonon averaged via Gaussian process regression (EPA-GPR) method, in which the electron-phonon coupling matrix is represented as a function of two energies and is in turn modeled as a Gaussian process. The EPA-GPR method can be used as an efficient method to estimate thermoelectric properties of materials for fast-screening applications, comparable to the original electron-phonon averaged (EPA) method and the electron-phonon averaged via moving-least-squares (EPA-MLS) method. The EPA-GPR method does not require specification of any open parameter, unlike the other EPA-related methods, since all the hyperparameters in the model can be unambiguously estimated within the type II maximum likelihood (ML-II) approximation. Thus, the EPA-GPR method is a parameter-free estimation method. Additionally, the concept of Gaussian processes in the EPA-GPR method allows us to quantify the uncertainty in estimated properties of thermoelectric materials. One can randomly realize the electron-phonon coupling coefficients from the identified Gaussian process, and those realized samples can be further analyzed in the solution process of the semiclassical Boltzmann transport equation for charge carriers. The results of the semiclassical Boltzmann transport equation provide the statistical properties of the thermoelectric properties of interest. The means, standard deviations, histograms, and confidence intervals of the Seebeck coefficient, the electrical conductivity, and the power factor can be constructed and analyzed. Furthermore the proposed EPA-GPR method is applied to a p-type half-Heusler compound, i.e., HfCoSb, as a case example, the results of which clearly present the advantages of the method.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗