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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2004

Launch Vehicle Propulsion Parameter Design Multiple Selection Criteria

The optimization tool described herein addresses and emphasizes the use of computer tools to model a system and focuses on a concept development approach for a liquid hydrogen/liquid oxygen single-stage-to-orbit system, but more particularly the development of the optimized system using new techniques. This methodology uses new and innovative tools to run Monte Carlo simulations, genetic algorithm solvers, and statistical models in order to optimize a design concept. The concept launch vehicle and propulsion system were modeled and optimized to determine the best design for weight and cost by varying design and technology parameters. Uncertainty levels were applied using Monte Carlo Simulations and the model output was compared to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Space Shuttle Main Engine. Several key conclusions are summarized here for the model results. First, the Gross Liftoff Weight and Dry Weight were 67% higher for the design case for minimization of Design, Development, Test and Evaluation cost when compared to the weights determined by the minimization of Gross Liftoff Weight case. In turn, the Design, Development, Test and Evaluation cost was 53% higher for optimized Gross Liftoff Weight case when compared to the cost determined by case for minimization of Design, Development, Test and Evaluation cost. Therefore, a 53% increase in Design, Development, Test and Evaluation cost results in a 67% reduction in Gross Liftoff Weight. Secondly, the tool outputs define the sensitivity of propulsion parameters, technology and cost factors and how these parameters differ when cost and weight are optimized separately. A key finding was that for a Space Shuttle Main Engine thrust level the oxidizer/fuel ratio of 6.6 resulted in the lowest Gross Liftoff Weight rather than at 5.2 for the maximum specific impulse, demonstrating the relationships between specific impulse, engine weight, tank volume and tank weight. Lastly, the optimum chamber pressure for Gross Liftoff Weight minimization was 2713 pounds per square inch as compared to 3162 for the Design, Development, Test and Evaluation cost optimization case. This chamber pressure range is close to 3000 pounds per square inch for the Space Shuttle Main Engine.

Shelton, Joey Dewayne↗
NASA NTRS1993

On-board closed-loop congestion control for satellite based packet switching networks

NASA LeRC is currently investigating a satellite architecture that incorporates on-board packet switching capability. Because of the statistical nature of packet switching, arrival traffic may fluctuate and thus it is necessary to integrate congestion control mechanism as part of the on-board processing unit. This study focuses on the closed-loop reactive control. We investigate the impact of the long propagation delay on the performance and propose a scheme to overcome the problem. The scheme uses a global feedback signal to regulate the packet arrival rate of ground stations. In this scheme, the satellite continuously broadcasts the status of its output buffer and the ground stations respond by selectively discarding packets or by tagging the excessive packets as low-priority. The two schemes are evaluated by theoretical queuing analysis and simulation. The former is used to analyze the simplified model and to determine the basic trends and bounds, and the later is used to assess the performance of a more realistic system and to evaluate the effectiveness of more sophisticated control schemes. The results show that the long propagation delay makes the closed-loop congestion control less responsive. The broadcasted information can only be used to extract statistical information. The discarding scheme needs carefully-chosen status information and reduction function, and normally requires a significant amount of ground discarding to reduce the on-board packet loss probability. The tagging scheme is more effective since it tolerates more uncertainties and allows a larger margin of error in status information. It can protect the high-priority packets from excessive loss and fully utilize the downlink bandwidth at the same time.

Chu, Pong P.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Ab initio predictions link the neutron skin of 208 Pb to nuclear forces

Heavy atomic nuclei have an excess of neutrons over protons, which leads to the formation of a neutron skin whose thickness is sensitive to details of the nuclear force. This links atomic nuclei to properties of neutron stars, thereby relating objects that differ in size by orders of magnitude. The nucleus 208 Pb is of particular interest because it exhibits a simple structure and is experimentally accessible. However, computing such a heavy nucleus has been out of reach for ab initio theory. By combining advances in quantum many-body methods, statistical tools and emulator technology, we make quantitative predictions for the properties of 208 Pb starting from nuclear forces that are consistent with symmetries of low-energy quantum chromodynamics. We explore 10 9 different nuclear force parameterizations via history matching, confront them with data in select light nuclei and arrive at an importance-weighted ensemble of interactions. We accurately reproduce bulk properties of 208 Pb and determine the neutron skin thickness, which is smaller and more precise than a recent extraction from parity-violating electron scattering but in agreement with other experimental probes. This work demonstrates how realistic two- and three-nucleon forces act in a heavy nucleus and allows us to make quantitative predictions across the nuclear landscape.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 results: Cosmological constraints from galaxy clustering and galaxy-galaxy lensing using the MagLim lens sample

The cosmological information extracted from photometric surveys is most robust when multiple probes of the large scale structure of the Universe are used. Two of the most sensitive probes are the clustering of galaxies and the tangential shear of background galaxy shapes produced by those foreground galaxies, so-called galaxy-galaxy lensing. Combining the measurements of these two two-point functions leads to cosmological constraints that are independent of the way galaxies trace matter (the galaxy bias factor). The optimal choice of foreground, or lens, galaxies is governed by the joint, but conflicting requirements to obtain accurate redshift information and large statistics. We present cosmological results from the full 5000 deg 2 of the Dark Energy Survey’s first three years of observations (Y3) combining those two-point functions, using for the first time a magnitude-limited lens sample (MagLim) of 11 million galaxies, especially selected to optimize such combination, and 100 million background shapes. We consider two flat cosmological models, the Standard Model with dark energy and cold dark matter ( Λ CDM ) a variation with a free parameter for the dark energy equation of state ( w CDM ). Both models are marginalized over 25 astrophysical and systematic nuisance parameters. In Λ CDM we obtain for the matter density Ω m = 0.320 - 0.034 + 0.041 and for the clustering amplitude S 8 ≡ σ 8 ( Ω m / 0.3 ) 0.5 = 0.778 - 0.031 + 0.037 , at 68% C.L. The latter is only 1 σ smaller than the prediction in this model informed by measurements of the cosmic microwave background by the Planck satellite. In w CDM we find Ω m = 0.32 - 0.046 + 0.044 , S 8 = 0.777 - 0.051 + 0.049 and dark energy equation of state w = - 1.031 - 0.379 + 0.218 . We find that including smaller scales, while marginalizing over nonlinear galaxy bias, improves the constraining power in the Ω m - S 8 plane by 31% and in the Ω m - w plane by 41% while yielding consistent cosmological parameters from those in the linear bias case. These results are combined with those from cosmic shear in a companion paper to present full DES-Y3 constraints from the three two-point functions ( 3 × 2 pt ).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Chaconne: A Statistical Approach to Nonlocal Compression for Supervised Learning, Semi-Supervised Learning, and Anomaly Detection

This project developed a novel statistical understanding of compression analytics (CA), which has challenged and clarified some core assumptions about CA, and enabled the development of novel techniques that address vital challenges of national security. Specifically, this project has yielded the development of novel capabilities including 1. Principled metrics for model selection in CA, 2. Techniques for deriving/applying optimal classification rules and decision theory to supervised CA, including how to properly handle class imbalance and differing costs of misclassification, 3. Two techniques for handling nonlocal information in CA, 4. A novel technique for unsupervised CA that is agnostic with regard to the underlying compression algorithm, 5. A framework for semisupervised CA when a small number of labels are known in an otherwise large unlabeled dataset. 6. The academic alliance component of this project has focused on the development of a novel exemplar-based Bayesian technique for estimating variable length Markov models (closely related to PPM [prediction by partial matching] compression techniques). We have developed examples illustrating the application of our work to text, video, genetic sequences, and unstructured cybersecurity log files.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
NASA NTRS1974

The problem of selecting an optimum frequency for a measuring generator in determining the value of the hydrophysical parameter with a given accuracy

The selection of the optimum frequency for a measuring generator for determining the value of the hydrophysical parameter with a given degree of accuracy is discussed. Methods from information theory for measuring generators are described. Conversion of the frequency of generators into digital form by means of statistical averaging is also described.

Stepanyuk, V. A.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Thermal histories and crystal distributions in partly devitrified lunar glasses cooled by radiation

Calculations of the expected crystallization behavior of selected lunar compositions (60095 and 14259) are presented. Knowledge of this behavior combined with measurements of the state of crystallinity in partially devitrified lunar samples permits the determination of the thermal history of the samples. The state of crystallinity of a specimen is described by a statistical crystal distribution function psi. The heat flow problems of a plate of opaque glass quenched on an aluminum block and of a semi-transparent glass sphere cooling by radiation are analyzed. The results are combined with laboratory measurements of the crystal growth velocity and the viscosity, and with theoretical expressions for the nucleation frequency (homogeneous and heterogeneous) to obtain psi. It is found that the calculated psi is much too large in comparison with laboratory experiments on lunar samples. Possible reasons for the discrepancy are discussed, and the most likely cause is that the assumed nucleation barrier is too small. It also appears likely that these materials have relatively few nucleating heterogeneities.

Hopper, R. W.↗
NASA NTRS1983

The spatial correlation function of rich clusters of galaxies

A series of objective statistical estimators is applied to directly study the three-dimensional distribution of rich clusters, using a recently completed redshift sample of 104 Abell clusters out to distance class four and galactic latitude of 30 deg or more. The sample and the relevant positional and redshift selection effects are discussed, and the two-point angular correlation function and nearest-neighbor distribution of clusters in the sample are determined, as well as in the larger D = 5+6 sample and in several subsamples of different richness classes and latitude zones. The redshift correlation function of clusters for various angular separations on the sky is examined as a test for the reality of the observed angular correlations. The two-point spatial correlation function of clusters in the sample is determined, and the consistency among the three observed correlation functions is tested. A model that describes all the observed correlations is presented.

Bahcall, N. A.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Landsat Thematic Mapper digital information content for agricultural environments

Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) data collected for Imperial Valley, California in December, 1982 were digitally examined to assess their utility to distinguish among agricultural and other land-covers. Statistics for thirty-seven training sites representing a variety of crops plus urban, water and desert land-covers were obtained and analyzed using transformed divergence (TD) calculations. TD values were employed to assess intraclass variability and the best bands for classification. Four subscenes were selected for clustering or unsupervised signature extraction. These areas were agriculture, urban, desert and water land-covers. The number of clusters for these subscenes were examined and the best TM bands for interclass separability were identified. The results of the clustering and training site analyses for interclass separability were compared. The TM data were useful for the digital delimitation of most crops and other cover types in this analysis. Four bands of data are adequate for classification with the best results obtained by the selection of one band from each of the available portions of the electromagnetic spectrum. Different band combinations are best for various land-cover intraclass separability.

Haack, Barry↗
NASA NTRS1988

Simulation of ocean SAR images via phase history generation

A method for simulating an ocean synthetic-aperture radar (SAR) image is illustrated for a simple internal wave current pattern. The method calculates both the amplitude image and the radar signal history. The simulation model used consists of six stages. In the first stage, the full wave spectrum in two spatial coordinates is calculated from the wind speed and direction using the action spectral density equation. In the second stage, the pixel size is selected and used as the basis for dividing the spectrum into large and small scale motions. Realizations for the large-scale ocean surface height and velocity are then calculated. In the third stage, the sensor wavelength and geometry are used to calculate the small scale statistics (radar cross section, coherence time, root-mean square (RMS), radial velocity and RMS slope). In the fourth stage, an autoregressive method is used to generate a realization of the surface reflectivity history that is consistent with the radial velocity and the radial velocity variance. In the fifth stage, the signal history is generated by summing the reflectivities at the proper times with the appropriate antenna weighting function for the SAR. As a consequence of this process, speckle is automatically included in the signal. In the final stage, the SAR image can be created by using any of the traditional ways to process the signal history, including variable focusing and multilook processing.

Bennett, John R.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Spacecraft design optimization using Taguchi analysis

The quality engineering methods of Dr. Genichi Taguchi, employing design of experiments, are important statistical tools for designing high quality systems at reduced cost. The Taguchi method was utilized to study several simultaneous parameter level variations of a lunar aerobrake structure to arrive at the lightest weight configuration. Finite element analysis was used to analyze the unique experimental aerobrake configurations selected by Taguchi method. Important design parameters affecting weight and global buckling were identified and the lowest weight design configuration was selected.

Unal, Resit↗
NASA NTRS2003

The Reanalysis for Stratospheric Trace Gas Studies

The "Reanalysis for Stratospheric Trace Gas Studies" (ReSTS) project intends to provide a state-of-the-art meteorological dataset for use in chemistry-transport models (CTMs). The initial focus is on the period from May 1991 until April 1995, which encompasses the initial few years of observations from NASA's Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) as well as the abrupt increase and slow decay of volcanic aerosol loading from Mount Pinatubo. The reanalysis is being performed using NASA's operational "GEOS-4" data assimilation system. The results presented in this paper will begin with an overview of the meteorology of the ReSTS period, validating the ReSTS data against independent analyses, followed by an evaluation of the system statistics (the "Observation minus Forecast" for different input data types). Some sensitivities to the assumptions made in the assimilation process will be presented, including aspects of the forecast model and the statistical model used in the observation-forecast merging. Aspects of trace-gas transport will be discussed, focussing on the on-line water vapor distribution (which is a quasi-inert trace gas in the stratosphere), off-line transport studies of ozone and selected long-lived species, as well as assimilated ozone. The results will be discussed in the context of transport studies and our ability to use reanalyzed datasets to examine long-term variations in the meteorology and composition of the middle atmosphere.

Pawson, Steven↗
NASA NTRS2008

Use of High-Resolution WRF Simulations to Forecast Lightning Threat

Recent observational studies have confirmed the existence of a robust statistical relationship between lightning flash rates and the amount of large precipitating ice hydrometeors aloft in storms. This relationship is exploited, in conjunction with the capabilities of cloud-resolving forecast models such as WRF, to forecast explicitly the threat of lightning from convective storms using selected output fields from the model forecasts. The simulated vertical flux of graupel at -15C and the shape of the simulated reflectivity profile are tested in this study as proxies for charge separation processes and their associated lightning risk. Our lightning forecast method differs from others in that it is entirely based on high-resolution simulation output, without reliance on any climatological data. short [6-8 h) simulations are conducted for a number of case studies for which three-dmmensional lightning validation data from the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array are available. Experiments indicate that initialization of the WRF model on a 2 km grid using Eta boundary conditions, Doppler radar radial velocity fields, and METAR and ACARS data y&eld satisfactory simulations. __nalyses of the lightning threat fields suggests that both the graupel flux and reflectivity profile approaches, when properly calibrated, can yield reasonable lightning threat forecasts, although an ensemble approach is probably desirable in order to reduce the tendency for misplacement of modeled storms to hurt the accuracy of the forecasts. Our lightning threat forecasts are also compared to other more traditional means of forecasting thunderstorms, such as those based on inspection of the convective available potential energy field.

McCaul, E. W., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Downsampling Photodetector Array with Windowing

In a photon counting detector array, each pixel in the array produces an electrical pulse when an incident photon on that pixel is detected. Detection and demodulation of an optical communication signal that modulated the intensity of the optical signal requires counting the number of photon arrivals over a given interval. As the size of photon counting photodetector arrays increases, parallel processing of all the pixels exceeds the resources available in current application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC) and gate array (GA) technology; the desire for a high fill factor in avalanche photodiode (APD) detector arrays also precludes this. Through the use of downsampling and windowing portions of the detector array, the processing is distributed between the ASIC and GA. This allows demodulation of the optical communication signal incident on a large photon counting detector array, as well as providing architecture amenable to algorithmic changes. The detector array readout ASIC functions as a parallel-to-serial converter, serializing the photodetector array output for subsequent processing. Additional downsampling functionality for each pixel is added to this ASIC. Due to the large number of pixels in the array, the readout time of the entire photodetector is greater than the time between photon arrivals; therefore, a downsampling pre-processing step is done in order to increase the time allowed for the readout to occur. Each pixel drives a small counter that is incremented at every detected photon arrival or, equivalently, the charge in a storage capacitor is incremented. At the end of a user-configurable counting period (calculated independently from the ASIC), the counters are sampled and cleared. This downsampled photon count information is then sent one counter word at a time to the GA. For a large array, processing even the downsampled pixel counts exceeds the capabilities of the GA. Windowing of the array, whereby several subsets of pixels are designated for processing, is used to further reduce the computational requirements. The grouping of the designated pixel frame as the photon count information is sent one word at a time to the GA, the aggregation of the pixels in a window can be achieved by selecting only the designated pixel counts from the serial stream of photon counts, thereby obviating the need to store the entire frame of pixel count in the gate array. The pixel count se quence from each window can then be processed, forming lower-rate pixel statistics for each window. By having this processing occur in the GA rather than in the ASIC, future changes to the processing algorithm can be readily implemented. The high-bandwidth requirements of a photon counting array combined with the properties of the optical modulation being detected by the array present a unique problem that has not been addressed by current CCD or CMOS sensor array solutions.

Patawaran, Ferze D.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evaluating The Relationships Between Supine Propriorception Assessments with Upright Functional Mobility and Balance Tests

INTRODUCTION Upon return to Earth, spaceflight sensorimotor adaptations can result in impaired posture and locomotion [1], [2], and current exercise countermeasures in the International Space Station are not sufficient to maintain sensorimotor function. In-flight countermeasures and assessment tools for sensorimotor function are needed to mitigate risks associated with mission-critical task performance upon return to Earth or arrival to 0.38 G on Mars. One proposed countermeasure for proprioceptive deconditioning includes training on a tilt board device [3], which will be tested in an upcoming bed rest study. In preparation for the said study, the objective of this pilot study is to compare performance in supine proprioceptive assessments to performance in functional upright activities. The results are intended to guide the selection of supine assessment tools for the upcoming bedrest study and the development of future inflight proprioceptive training and assessment tools for exploration missions. METHODS Seventeen healthy participants (8 males and 9 females, 27.9 ± 8.5 years) provided informed consent as approved by the Institutional Review Board (IRB) at NASA. A horizontal air-bearing sled was used to provide a proprioceptive challenge in a supine body orientation, allowing for mediolateral motion with minimal friction during supine stance [4]. Participants were loaded axially (30 to 60% body weight) with their feet on a vertically oriented tilt board and instructed to perform supine assessment activities using custom software that displays a cursor controlled by tilting the tilt board. In a single-leg static activity on the tilt board (TB-St), performance was measured as the percent time spent on a center target during a 30-second trial. During a two-feet dynamic activity on the tilt board (TB-Dy), performance was measured as the number of targets captured in 30 seconds. These supine tasks were compared to performance during two upright activities used to represent upright performance: completion time for a functional mobility task (FMT) [2],[5] and a performance score from force plate sway data during 30-second single-leg upright standing (USL). RESULTS AND DISCUSSION A Spearman's rank-order correlation was run to assess the relationship between upright and supine assessments. There were statistically significant, strong correlations between scores for the FMT and each TB activity, including TB-St, rs(17) = 0.50, p<0.05, TB-Dy3, rs(17) = 0.73, p<0.001, and TB-Dy9, rs(15) = 0.53, p<0.05. There were no statistically significant correlations between USL and each TB activity. Despite a lack of correlation with upright single-leg balance, the ability of the TB to indicate upright performance in the FMT is promising, as this task is a standard post-flight measure designed to characterize locomotor dysfunction [2], [5]. CONCLUSION These efforts will inform the selection of an appropriate sensorimotor assessment method for the upcoming bed rest study and similar future studies. While current work uses a bed rest analog to develop these technologies, future work aims to prepare capabilities for future in-flight sensorimotor training and assessment to mitigate the risks of proprioception impairment after spaceflight. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This work was supported by the University Space Research Association Internship Program. REFERENCES [1] Mulavara A.P. et al (2018) Med Sci Sports Exerc, 50(9), 1961-1980. [2] Mulavara A.P. et al (2010) Exp Brain Res, 202(3), 649-659. [3] Macaulay T.R. et al (2021) Front. Syst. Neurosci., 15, 658-985. [4] Goel R. et al (2017) Front. Syst. Neurosci, 11. [5] Koppelmans V. et al (2013) BMC Neurology, 12.

R Bellisle↗
DOE OSTI2022

Improving Peptide-Level Mass Spectrometry Analysis via Double Competition

A critical statistical task in the analysis of shotgun proteomics data involves controlling the false discovery rate (FDR) among the reported set of discoveries. This task is most commonly solved at the peptide-spectrum match (PSM) level by using target-decoy competition (TDC), in which a set of observed spectra are searched against a database containing a mixture of real (target) and decoy peptides. The PSM-level procedure can be adapted to the peptide level by selecting the top-scoring PSM per peptide prior to FDR estimation. Here, we investigate both PSM-level and peptide-level FDR control methods and come to two conclusions. First, although the TDC procedure is provably correct under certain assumptions, we observe that one of these assumptions - that incorrect PSMs are independent of one another - is frequently violated. Hence, we empirically demonstrate that TDC-based PSM-level FDR estimates can be liberally biased. Further, we propose that researchers avoid PSM-level results and instead focus on peptide-level analysis. Second, we investigate three ways to carry out peptide level TDC and show that the most common method ("PSM-only") offers the lowest statistical power in practice. The most powerful method, peptide-level FDR with PSM competition ("PSM-and-peptide"), carries out competition first at the PSM level and then again at the peptide level. In our experiments, this approach yields an average increase of 17% more discovered peptides at a1% FDR threshold relative to the PSM-only method.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Review of Particle Physics

The Review summarizes much of particle physics and cosmology. Using data from previous editions, plus 3,200 new measurements from 903 papers, we list, evaluate, and average measured properties of gauge bosons and the recently discovered Higgs boson, leptons, quarks, mesons, and baryons. We summarize searches for hypothetical particles such as supersymmetric particles, heavy bosons, axions, dark photons, etc. Particle properties and search limits are listed in Summary Tables. We give numerous tables, figures, formulae, and reviews of topics such as Higgs Boson Physics, Supersymmetry, Grand Unified Theories, Neutrino Mixing, Dark Energy, Dark Matter, Cosmology, Particle Detectors, Colliders, Probability and Statistics. Most of the 118 reviews are updated, including many that are heavily revised.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Comparison between PARFUME and Bison Using the AGR-2 Irradiation Experiment

This report documents comparisons between Fuel Model (PARFUME) model predictions versus Bison for selected compacts from the second irradiation test of the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) program that occurred from June 2010 to October 2013 in the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) at Idaho National Laboratory (INL). PARFUME is a fuel performance analysis and modeling code, used for evaluating gas-reactor tristructural isotropic (TRISO) coated particle fuel for prismatic, pebble bed, plate, and cylindrical type fuel geometries. PARFUME is an integrated mechanistic computer code that evaluates the thermal, mechanical, and physico-chemical behavior of TRISO coated-fuel particles and the probability for fuel failure given the particle-to-particle statistical variations in physical dimensions and material properties that arise during the fuel fabrication process. Bison is a nuclear fuel performance application built using the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) finite element library (Permann 2020). Bison is capable of modeling multiple fuel forms in a wide variety of dimensions and geometries. It solves coupled nonlinear partial differential equations, including heat conduction, mechanics, fission product species transport etc., in a fully implicit manner. Comparisons between PARFUME and Bison were performed using four compacts from the AGR-2 experiment. Selected outputs were chosen based on their impact on the probability of the SiC layer failing. In general there was good agreement between PARFUME and Bison with the exception of predicting the gap formed between the buffer and IPyC. Further comparisons between PARFUME and Bison are planned to further develop Bison’s capabilities.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗