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On Convergence of Development Costs and Cost Models for Complex Spaceflight Instrument Electronics

Development costs of a few recent spaceflight instrument electrical and electronics subsystems have diverged from respective heritage cost model predictions. The cost models used are Grass Roots, Price-H and Parametric Model. These cost models originated in the military and industry around 1970 and were successfully adopted and patched by NASA on a mission-by-mission basis for years. However, the complexity of new instruments recently changed rapidly by orders of magnitude. This is most obvious in the complexity of representative spaceflight instrument electronics' data system. It is now required to perform intermediate processing of digitized data apart from conventional processing of science phenomenon signals from multiple detectors. This involves on-board instrument formatting of computational operands from row data for example, images), multi-million operations per second on large volumes of data in reconfigurable hardware (in addition to processing on a general purpose imbedded or standalone instrument flight computer), as well as making decisions for on-board system adaptation and resource reconfiguration. The instrument data system is now tasked to perform more functions, such as forming packets and instrument-level data compression of more than one data stream, which are traditionally performed by the spacecraft command and data handling system. It is furthermore required that the electronics box for new complex instruments is developed for one-digit watt power consumption, small size and that it is light-weight, and delivers super-computing capabilities. The conflict between the actual development cost of newer complex instruments and its electronics components' heritage cost model predictions seems to be irreconcilable. This conflict and an approach to its resolution are addressed in this paper by determining the complexity parameters, complexity index, and their use in enhanced cost model.

Kizhner, Semion↗

How Would the Twenty-First-Century Warming Influence Pacific Decadal Variability and Its Connection to North American Rainfall: Assessment Based on a Revised Procedure for the IPO/PDO

Decadal climate variability of sea surface temperature (SST) over the Pacific Ocean can be characterized by interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO) or Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) based on empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. Although the procedures to derive the IPO and PDO indices differ in their regional focuses and filtering methods to remove interannual variability, the IPO and PDO are highly correlated in time and are often used interchangeably. Studies have shown that the IPO and PDO conjointly (IPO/PDO for conciseness) play a vital role in modulating the pace of global warming. It is less clear, however, how externally forced global warming may, in turn, affect the IPO/PDO. One obstacle to revealing this effect is that the conventional definitions of the IPO/PDO fail to account for the spatial heterogeneity of the background warming trend, which causes the IPO/PDO to be conflated with the warming trend, especially for the twenty-first-century simulation when the forced change is likely to be more dominant. Using a large-ensemble simulation in the Community Earth System Model, version 1 (CESM1), it is shown here that a better practice of detrending prior to EOF analysis is to remove the local and nonlinear trend, defined as the ensemble-mean time series at each grid box (or simply as the quadratic fit of the local time series if such an ensemble is not available). The revised IPO/PDO index is purely indicative of internal decadal variability. In the twenty-first-century warmer climate, the IPO/PDO has a weaker amplitude in space, a higher frequency in time, and a muted impact on global and North American temperature and rainfall.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Effect of a localized minimum in equatorial field strength on resistive tearing instability in the geomagnetotail

A two-dimensional, resistive-MHD computer code is used to investigate the spontaneous reconnection of magnetotaillike configurations. The initial conditions adopted in the simulations are of two types: (1) in which the equatorial normal magnetic field component B(ze) declines monotonically down the tail, and (2) in which B(ze) exhibits a deep minimum in the near-earth plasma sheet. To represent the case where the earthward convection stops before the X line forms, zero-flow boundary conditions are imposed at the edges of the computational box. The initial configurations are in equilibrium and table within ideal MHD. The dynamic evolution of the system starts after the resistivity is turned on. The main results of these simulations basically support the neutral-line model of substorms and confirm Birn's (1980) computer studies. Spontaneous formation of an X-type neutral point and a single O-type plasmoid with strong tailward flow on the tailward side of the X point is found. The time interval from the turning on of the resistivity to the formation of a plasmoid is much shorter in the case where there is an initial deep minimum. A simple analytic calculation is also carried out to demonstrate why the configuration with a deep minimum is more susceptible to the development of the neutral point.

Hau, L.-N.↗

SpaceCube v2.0 Space Flight Hybrid Reconfigurable Data Processing System

This paper details the design architecture, design methodology, and the advantages of the SpaceCube v2.0 high performance data processing system for space applications. The purpose in building the SpaceCube v2.0 system is to create a superior high performance, reconfigurable, hybrid data processing system that can be used in a multitude of applications including those that require a radiation hardened and reliable solution. The SpaceCube v2.0 system leverages seven years of board design, avionics systems design, and space flight application experiences. This paper shows how SpaceCube v2.0 solves the increasing computing demands of space data processing applications that cannot be attained with a standalone processor approach.The main objective during the design stage is to find a good system balance between power, size, reliability, cost, and data processing capability. These design variables directly impact each other, and it is important to understand how to achieve a suitable balance. This paper will detail how these critical design factors were managed including the construction of an Engineering Model for an experiment on the International Space Station to test out design concepts. We will describe the designs for the processor card, power card, backplane, and a mission unique interface card. The mechanical design for the box will also be detailed since it is critical in meeting the stringent thermal and structural requirements imposed by the processing system. In addition, the mechanical design uses advanced thermal conduction techniques to solve the internal thermal challenges.The SpaceCube v2.0 processing system is based on an extended version of the 3U cPCI standard form factor where each card is 190mm x 100mm in size The typical power draw of the processor card is 8 to 10W and scales with application complexity. The SpaceCube v2.0 data processing card features two Xilinx Virtex-5 QV Field Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGA), eight memory modules, a monitor FPGA with analog monitoring, Ethernet, configurable interconnect to the Xilinx FPGAs including gigabit transceivers, and the necessary voltage regulation. The processor board uses a back-to-back design methodology for common parts that maximizes the board real estate available. This paper will show how to meet the IPC 6012B Class 3A standard with a 22-layer board that has two column grid array devices with 1.0mm pitch. All layout trades such as stack-up options, via selection, and FPGA signal breakout will be discussed with feature size results. The overall board design process will be discussed including parts selection, circuit design, proper signal termination, layout placement and route planning, signal integrity design and verification, and power integrity results. The radiation mitigation techniques will also be detailed including configuration scrubbing options, Xilinx circuit mitigation and FPGA functional monitoring, and memory protection.Finally, this paper will describe how this system is being used to solve the extreme challenges of a robotic satellite servicing mission where typical space-rated processors are not sufficient enough to meet the intensive data processing requirements. The SpaceCube v2.0 is the main payload control computer and is required to control critical subsystems such as autonomous rendezvous and docking using a suite of vision sensors and object avoidance when controlling two robotic arms.

Xilinx FPGA↗

Europa Clipper Payload Verification and Validation: Avionics-Instrument Interface Test Campaign

NASA's Europa Clipper mission will investigate Jupiter's icy moon Europa using a payload suite consisting of nine instruments to address a range of scientific objectives concerning Europa's habitability. As the project proceeds past its Critical Design Review, confidence is being built in the system's ability to achieve mission objectives through the implementation of a rigorous payload verification and validation (V&V) program. As part of this payload V&V program, instrument box-level testing was performed by the payload team to verify select instrument-avionics interface requirements. This testing was performed at JPL using the avionics testbed's Bulk Data Storage Emulator (BDSEM) with visiting instrument Test Models. This paper summarizes the Data Link test campaign involving roughly four days of functional testing per instrument, including planning, testing methods, types of issues found, and the requirement closure process. Detail is also provided on the development, deployment, and validation of a standardized analysis tool used in data reviews. This testing verified requirements related to commanding rates, loss of link, packet format, clock counters, loopback test capability, and SpaceWire jitter and skew margins. Additional risk reduction testing of basic commanding, counter behavior, science data collection and transfer, and interface swapping was also performed. Because the BDSEM venue was not originally designed to be a run for record venue, the process of characterizing venue fidelity and establishing suitability for requirement closure using data collected in this venue will also be addressed.In order to close requirements, an extensible tool was developed to post-process instrument command and telemetry data from their original binary to a human-readable format and give visibility to errors detected within the data, such as packets with Cyclic Redundancy Check errors. This tool, called payload-packet-parser, is a Python 3.9 command line tool built using a variety of open-source Python libraries. Payload-packet-parser was designed to support parsing command and telemetry packets for all Europa Clipper instruments and additional analysis tools were developed for verification of specific information interface requirements. This test campaign, including post-processing using a single parsing and verification toolset, allowed for early interface testing, alleviating testing burdens on instrument teams and buying down risk on the instrument-avionics interface by finding hardware and software issues and idiosyncrasies prior to integration with system test venues. Over twenty issues were discovered across the payload, resulting in software updates and instrument rework well in advance of any system impacts. This paper concludes with an assessment of benefits and costs of this type of testing and lessons learned.

Montanez, Leticia↗

Asynchronous Runtimes in Action: An Introspective Framework for a Next Gen Runtime

One of the most critical challenges that new high performance systems face is the lack of system software support for these large scale systems. Investment on system stack components is essential in the development, debugging and optimization of the new emerging programming models. These emerging models have the promise to better utilize the vast hardware resources available in current and future systems. To aid in the development of applications and new system stacks, runtimes, as instances of their respective execution models, need to produce facilities to introspect their inner workings and allow an indepth attribution of performance bottlenecks and computational patterns. In other words, the runtime systems need to reduce their opacity to observers so that users of a novel program execution model can adapt their designs to fit the intended model usage, regardless of the layer that they are working on. This design/development loop (akin to co-design) enables synergistic opportunities across the entire computational stack. This paper presents the design and implementation of a simple “gray” box performance attribution harness running inside a fine grain runtime system: the Open Community Runtime (OCR). We showcase what such a framework can indicate regarding the runtime behavior while running at scale. To this end, we have designed a set of synthetic scenarios aimed to test the runtime at their best and worst cases. We present an analysis of the most important runtime features, properties and idiosyncrasies that will affect the development of new runtime features, algorithmic selection, and application development.

high performance distributed runtimes↗

Microgravity acceleration modeling for orbital systems

In view of the decisive importance of a disturbance-free environment on the Space Station, and on other orbital systems, for materials processing experiments, a theoretical and semi-experimental analysis of the acceleration environment to be expected on large orbiting spacecraft was undertaken. A unified model of such spacecraft cannot be established; therefore, a number of sub-models representing major components of typical large spacecraft must be investigated. In order to obtain experimental data of forces, a typical spacecraft - an engineering model of the Spacelab - was suspended on long ropes in a high-bay hangar, and equipped with a number of accelerometers. Active components on the Spacelab (fans, pumps, air conditioners, valves, levers) were operated, and astronautics moved boxes, drawers, sleds, and their own bodies. Generally speaking, the response of the Spacelab structure was very similar to the environment measured on Spacelabs SL-1, SL-2, and D-1. At frequencies in the broad range between 1 and about 100 Hz, acceleration peaks reached values of 10(exp -3) and 10(exp -2) g sub o, and even higher.

Knabe, Walter↗

REACH: Real-Time Data Awareness in Multi-Spacecraft Missions

Missions have been proposed that will use multiple spacecraft to perform scientific or commercial tasks. Indeed, in the commercial world, some spacecraft constellations already exist. Aside from the technical challenges of constructing and flying these missions, there is also the financial challenge presented by the tradition model of the flight operations team (FOT) when it is applied to a constellation mission. Proposed constellation missions range in size from three spacecraft to more than 50. If the current ratio of three-to-five FOT personnel per spacecraft is maintained, the size of the FOT becomes cost prohibitive. The Advanced Architectures and Automation Branch at the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC Code 588) saw the potential to reduce the cost of these missions by creating new user interfaces to the ground system health-and-safety data. The goal is to enable a smaller FOT to remain aware and responsive to the increased amount of ground system information in a multi-spacecraft environment. Rather than abandon the tried and true, these interfaces were developed to run alongside existing ground system software to provide additional support to the FOT. These new user interfaces have been combined in a tool called REACH. REACH-the Real-time Evaluation and Analysis of Consolidated Health-is a software product that uses advanced visualization techniques to make spacecraft anomalies easy to spot, no matter how many spacecraft are in the constellation. REACH reads a real-time stream of data from the ground system and displays it to the FOT such that anomalies are easy to pick out and investigate. Data visualization has been used in ground system operations for many years. To provide a unique visualization tool, we developed a unique source of data to visualize: the REACH Health Model Engine. The Health Model Engine is rule-based software that receives real-time telemetry information and outputs "health" information related to the subsystems and spacecraft that the telemetry belong to. The Health Engine can run out-of-the-box or can be tailored with a scripting language. Out of the box, it uses limit violations to determine the health of subsystems and spacecraft; when tailored, it determines health using equations combining the values and limits of any telemetry in the spacecraft. The REACH visualizations then "roll up" the information from the Health Engine into high level, summary displays. These summary visualizations can be "zoomed" into for increasing levels of detail. Currently REACH is installed in the Small Explorer (SMEX) lab at GSFC, and is monitoring three of their five spacecraft. We are scheduled to install REACH in the Mid-sized Explorer (MIDEX) lab, which will allow us to monitor up to six more spacecraft. The process of installing and using our "research" software in an operational environment has provided many insights into which parts of REACH are a step forward and which of our ideas are missteps. Our paper explores both the new concepts in spacecraft health-and-safety visualization, the difficulties of such systems in the operational environment, and the cost and safety issues of multi-spacecraft missions.

Maks, Lori↗

Dynamical model of φ meson photoproduction on the nucleon and 4 He

We investigate φ meson photoproduction on the nucleon and the 4 He targets within a dynamical model approach based on a Hamiltonian which describes the production mechanisms by the Pomeron-exchange, meson-exchanges, φ radiations, and nucleon resonance excitations mechanisms. The final φN interactions are included being described by the gluon-exchange, direct φN couplings, and the box-diagrams arising from the couplings with πN, ρN, KΛ, and KΣ channels. The parameters of the Hamiltonian are determined by the experimental data of γp → φp from the CLAS Collaboration. The resulting Hamiltonian is then used to predict the coherent φ-meson production on the 4 He targets by using the distorted-wave impulse approximation. For the proton target, the final φN rescattering effects, as required by the unitarity condition, are found to be very weak, which supports the earlier calculations in the literature. For the 4 He targets, the predicted differential cross sections are in good agreement with the data obtained by the LEPS Collaboration. Furthermore, the role of each mechanism in this reaction is discussed and predictions for a wide range of scattering angles are presented, which can be tested in future experiments.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Subgrid-scale model for radiative transfer in turbulent participating media

The simulation of turbulent flows of radiating gases, taking into account all turbulence length scales with an accurate radiation transport solver, is computationally prohibitive for high Reynolds or Rayleigh numbers. This is particularly the case when the small structures are not optically thin. We develop in this paper a radiative transfer subgrid model suitable for the coupling with direct numerical simulations of turbulent radiating fluid flows. Owing to the linearity of the Radiative Transfer Equation (RTE), the emission source term is spatially filtered to define large-scale and subgrid-scale radiation intensities. The large-scale or filtered intensity is computed with a standard ray tracing method on a coarse grid, and the subgrid intensity is obtained analytically (in Fourier space) from the Fourier transform of the subgrid emission source term. A huge saving of computational time is obtained in comparison with direct ray tracing applied on the fine mesh. Model accuracy is checked for three 3D fluctuating temperature fields. The first field is stochastically generated and allows us to discuss the effects of the filtering level and of the optical thicknesses of the whole medium, of the integral length scale, and of the cutoff wave length. The second and third cases correspond respectively to turbulent natural convection of humid air in a cubical box, and to the flow of hot combustion products inside a channel. In all cases, the achieved accuracy on radiative powers and wall fluxes is about a few percents.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Power assist EVA glove development

Structural modeling of the EVA glove indicates that flexibility in the metacarpophalangeal (MCP) joint can be improved by selectively lowering the elasticity of the glove fabric. Two strategies are used to accomplish this. One method uses coil springs on the back of the glove to carry the tension in the glove skin due to pressurization. These springs carry the loads normally borne by the glove fabric, but are more easily deformed. An active system was also designed for the same purpose and uses gas filled bladders attached to the back of the EVA glove that change the dimensions of the back of the glove and allow the glove to bend at the MCP joint, thus providing greater flexibility at this joint. A threshold control scheme was devised to control the action of the joint actuators. Input to the controller was provided by thin resistive pressure sensors placed between the hand and the pressurized glove. The pressure sensors consist of a layer of polyester film that has a thin layer of ink screened on the surface. The resistivity of the ink is pressure dependent, so an extremely thin pressure sensor can be fabricated by covering the ink patch with another layer of polyester film and measuring the changing resistance of the ink with a bridge circuit. In order to sense the force between the hand and the glove at the MCP joint, a sensor was placed on the palmar face of the middle finger. The resultant signal was used by the controller to decide whether to fill or exhaust the bladder actuators on the back of the glove. The information from the sensor can also be used to evaluate the effectiveness of a given control scheme or glove design since the magnitude of the measured pressures gives some idea of the torque required to bend a glove finger at the MCP joint. Tests of this actuator, sensor, and control system were conducted in an 57.2 kPa glove box by performing a series of 90 degree finger bends with a glove without an MCP joint assembly, a glove with the coil spring assembly, and with the four fingered actuated glove. The tests of these three glove designs confirm the validity of the model.

Main, John A.↗

Interactive analysis of a large aperture Earth observations satellite

A system level design and analysis has been conducted on an Earth Observation Satellite (EOS) system using the Interactive Design and Evaluation of Advanced Spacecraft (IDEAS) computer-aided design and analysis program. The IDEAS program consists of about 40 user-friendly technical modules and an interactive graphics display. The reflector support system and feed mast of the EOS spacecraft are constructed with box-truss structural concept, a lattice configuration which can be packaged for delivery in a single Shuttle flight and deployed in orbit. The deployed spacecraft consists of a 120-m by 60-m parabolic focal axis. The spacecraft was modeled for structural, thermal, and control systems analysis and structural elements were designed. On-orbit dynamic and thermal loading analyses were conducted; spacecraft weights and developmental and first unit costs were determined.

Wright, R. L.↗

STOP Analysis and Optimization of a Very-Low-Distortion Space Instrument: HST WFC3 Case Study

New generation optical instruments with very demanding stability requirements are being proposed and developed for space applications. STOP (Structural-Thermal-Optical Performance) analysis and optimization is crucial in meeting the very tight distortion budgets of these instruments. This presentation outlines STOP analysis and optimization approach in the context of WFC3 (Wide-Field Camera 3), which is a radial instrument designed to replace the Wide-Field Planetary Camera 2 (WFPC2) of the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). WFC3 houses two separate channels, UVIS and IR, and will have greater throughput and sensitivity than WFPC2. WFC3 line-of-sight alignment budget for the UVIS and IR channels are as small as 10 and 20 milli-arcsec, respectively. Its optical bench is the most critical subsystem effecting the optical stability of WFC3 hence our effort concentrates on the design and analysis of the bench and its interfaces. Structural analysis has accompanied the mechanical design of the bench since the initial concept study. A high fidelity structural Finite Element Model (FEM) of the bench has been developed and used for minimizing its thermally induced distortions as well as sizing it to meet the stiffness and strength requirements of a Shuttle launch. The bench is a composite honeycomb panel box structure with a very low planar Coefficient of Thermal Expansion (CTE) of approximately 0.1 ppm/C. Optic components are mounted to super-INVAR inserts bonded into the panels. The bench is kinematically supported on three HST latches via interface struts, which are tailored to exhibit negative CTE to cancel out the thermal motions of the latches. The interface struts also incorporate flexure elements to minimize the mechanical distortions coming into the bench from its enclosure. Bench FEM is coupled with the enclosure FEM to quantify these effects. Short term or on-orbit STOP analysis includes distortion due to the temperature variations of the bench, the struts, and the enclosure. Long term or ground-to-orbit STOP analysis includes distortional effects of gravity release, desorption, and assembly in addition to the ground-to-orbit temperature variations. A rigorous testing program has been implemented for verifying the material properties and the analysis predictions. STOP analysis results demonstrate that both the short-term and the long-term alignment budgets will be met. Presentation will cover design and analysis details that are critical to a successful implementation of the STOP analysis and optimization process.

Kunt, Cengiz↗

Efficient sensor/model based on-line collision detection for planetary manipulators

We present an algorithm that uses the Oriented Bounding Box (OBB) and a new primitive called the Oriented Bounding Prism (OBP) to detect potential self-collisions and collisions with terrain object sensed with the rover's on-board stereo camera; the algorithm thus has both model-based and sensor-based components.

rovers manipulation collision detection FIDO↗

Life-cycle analysis of integrated biorefineries with co-production of biofuels and bio-based chemicals: co-product handling methods and implications: Co-product handling methods and implications of life-cycle analysis of biofuel and bio-chemical co-producing biorefineries

New integrated biorefinery (IBR) concepts are being investigated to co-produce hydrocarbon fuels and high-value bio-based chemicals to improve the economic viability of IBRs, to enhance biomass resource utilization efficiencies, and to maximize potential greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions. Unlike fuel-only biorefineries, IBRs may co-produce a significant amount of bio-based chemicals, whose emission implications for specific biorefinery products and the biorefinery as a whole need to be evaluated. We discuss this in principle and apply three sets of co-product handling methods to conduct life-cycle analysis (LCA) of modeled IBRs with co-production of two bioproduct examples - succinic acid and adipic acid - alongside a renewable diesel blendstock fuel product. The LCA results for the specific co-product handling methods that were examined shed light on potential artifacts of product-specific LCA with selected co-product methods. We discuss the advantages and limitations of each method and conclude that (i) a system-level or 'black-box' LCA allocation method is too simplistic to reflect appropriately the GHG burdens of distinctly different processing trains for fuels and chemicals in the IBR context, and (ii) the displacement method is the only co-product handling method that accounts fully for the emission effects of both the fuel product and the non-fuel bio-based co-products in the IBRs within the context of the existing fuel-focused GHG regulatory framework. Alternatively, biorefinery system-level LCA combines benefits of individual products to offer a complete picture. This system-level LCA approach offers a holistic LCA without somewhat arbitrary decisions either on an allocation basis or by the selection of an evaluation metric based on specific products.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Differentiable Multiphysics Codes: A Breakthrough Technology for Simulation and Computing

This document summarizes the findings of a strategic planning exercise commissioned by the Weapons Simulation and Computing, Computational Physics (WSC/CP) program at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) in FY24. During the year, the committee met with multiple stakeholder communities to gather input, opinions, suggestions and concerns which have been incorporated throughout this document. The key findings from this exercise are summarized: • The development of multiphysics modelling and simulation (mod/sim) codes and software technologies, their deployment on exascale compute platforms, and their broad adoption across the NNSA is a major success of the Advanced Simulation and Computing (ASC) program and the Exascale Computing Project (ECP). Sustained investment in these core technologies is essential. • Today’s state of the art involves running ensembles of O(100K) simulations to perform uncertainty quantification (UQ) and design studies using multiple statistical methods such as Bayesian optimization to understand sensitivities of our models and explore parameterized design spaces. Even with exascale computing, we are practically limited to O(10) parameters in these studies since the number of simulations required to sample the space scales exponentially with the number of design parameters. • The data from these simulation ensembles is increasingly being used to train machine learned (ML) surrogates (or reduced order models, ROMs) which can then be used for optimization or real time design exploration. However, the trained surrogates are still limited in the number of parameters they can represent due to the sampling limitations previously noted. • Augmenting our suite of integrated multiphysics simulation codes, both current and emerging, with the ability to compute gradients (solution derivatives) of arbitrary simulation outputs with respect to (some or all) simulation inputs would be a breakthrough technology, opening the door to a new era of efficient and automated inverse design based on verified and validated mod/sim capabilities. • This capability, which we refer to as differentiable multiphysics codes (DMCs), would revolutionize both UQ and optimization studies by breaking the curse of dimensionality that presently limits our “gradient-free” ensemble based computing approach. A similar breakthrough occurred in the AI/ML community once the ability to compute gradients of arbitrary loss functions using back-propagation became commonplace. Gradient information from the multiphysics codes can also be used to dramatically improve the efficiency and scale of training of ML/ROM surrogates for rapid assessments. • Achieving this in our suite of codes will be a grand challenge, similar to the amount of effort that was required to transition from CPU to GPU computing. It will require buy-in from the entire WSC/CP program and beyond, including all integrated codes, physics and engineering models, third-party library dependencies and performance portability abstractions. It will also require investment in research and development of numerical methods for computing adjoints of coupled physics across multiple adaptively refined moving meshes and of stochastic (Monte Carlo) and mesh free (SPH) methods. • New software and numerical techniques, largely pioneered by the AI/ML community, make this feasible. Chief among these is automatic differentiation (AD), the ability to employ AD at point-wise locations in a physics calculation (instead of traditional black-box approaches) and the ability to perform “back-propagation in time” (or reverse mode AD) for non-linear partial differential equations (PDEs). Fundamentally, the conclusion of this strategic planning exercise is that the time is right to undertake a large scale effort in WSC, centered on the existing integrated codes, to continue the natural evolution of mod/sim in the age of AI/ML. Instead of attempting to replace mod/sim with purely data driven AI/ML models, we believe the key to success is to integrate AI/ML by building on top of the decades of hard-won knowledge and the verified/validated multiphysics modelling capability that is the hallmark of the ASC program.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Evaluation of subgrid-scale turbulence models using a fully simulated turbulent flow

An exact turbulent flow field was calculated on a three-dimensional grid with 64 points on a side. The flow simulates grid-generated turbulence from wind tunnel experiments. In this simulation, the grid spacing is small enough to include essentially all of the viscous energy dissipation, and the box is large enough to contain the largest eddy in the flow. The method is limited to low-turbulence Reynolds numbers, in our case R sub lambda = 36.6. To complete the calculation using a reasonable amount of computer time with reasonable accuracy, a third-order time-integration scheme was developed which runs at about the same speed as a simple first-order scheme. It obtains this accuracy by saving the velocity field and its first-time derivative at each time step. Fourth-order accurate space-differencing is used.

Clark, R. A.↗

Identifying common stored product insects using automated deep learning methods

Monitoring stored product insect pests is a common practice for post-harvest management of stored grain and grain-based commodities, which helps ensure product quality from harvest to final consumer. Current methods of sampling and monitoring can be time-consuming, labor-intensive, expensive and require expertise in insect identification. Therefore, this study aims to develop an image-based automated identification system for common stored product insect species using deep-learning methods. Top-down images of the common stored product adult insect species of Rhyzopertha dominica, Cryptolestes ferrugineus, Tribolium castaneum, Sitophilus oryzae, and Oryzaephilus surinamensis were acquired and analyzed. Deep learning-based, state-of-the-art Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) models (ResNet-50, MobileNet-v2, DarkNet-53, and EfficientNet-b0) were fine-tuned with a transfer learning approach to classify the insect species. All models were able to correctly identify the insect species with at least 96% accuracy and with few misclassifications. One issue with trained CNNs is that they do not explain the reasoning for the classification and are often called a “black box”. Therefore, visualization methods called Gradient-weighted Class Activation Mapping (Grad-CAM) were implemented to explore the black box network. The Grad-CAM uses heat maps to highlight the major image features that the network focused on to make insect species predictions. The Grad-CAM verifies the network's prediction and also helps improve network performance. This study contributes to the overall goal of developing a camera-based system for monitoring stored grain insects. As a result, the developed system would empower warehouse, flour mills, and other food facilities with a tool to quickly and accurately identify insect species in stored product environments and could be implemented as part of a close to real-time monitoring system.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗