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CLimate Impact: Determining Etiology thRough pAthways (CLDERA)

Climate impacts have broad economic, health, political, and national security ramifications. Societally relevant impacts are typically farther downstream, are the product of multiple interacting processes, and can arise over small regions and timeframes because their sources are short-term and localized. Short-term forcings (as can be seen in volcanic eruptions, climatic tipping points (e.g., the collapse of rainforests or the disappearance of sea ice), or in increasingly plausible climate interventions) fundamentally possess low signal-to-noise and could benefit from accounting for the multiple conditional processes through which a downstream impact arises. Under the Grand Challenge LDRD CLDERA (CLimate impacts: Discovering Etiology thRough pAthways), we have developed tools to enable downstream impact attribution from geographically and temporally localized source forcings in the climate. CLDERA developed methods that can distinguish how a localized source drives the climate system to respond with particular impacts. The how is embodied in pathways – the spatio-temporally evolving chain of physical processes that connects a source to a series of increasingly distant impacts. Novel analytic methods in pursuit of downstream impact attribution were developed and demonstrated on simulations and observations of the 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines. As described within this report we have • developed stratospheric expertise and aerosol modeling capabilities in E3SM, • created original methods to detect and model pathways from source-to-impact, and • advanced climate attribution through novel methods, cases, and approaches. Further, CLDERA developed a tiered verification process consisting of controlled datasets to prototype, verify, and refine the original method development. CLDERA increased Sandia’s footprint in the climate analytics community and developed new climate collaborations whilst also creating a cadre of climate analysts at Sandia. The products from CLDERA have been extensive with a total of 9 journal articles published, 12 articles submitted and under review, and an additional 8 articles in preparation. We have produced 1750 simulated years and developed 9 code-bases. This report details these accomplishments and serves as a summary of the work completed during the CLDERA Grand Challenge.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Software reliability report

There are many software reliability models which try to predict future performance of software based on data generated by the debugging process. Unfortunately, the models appear to be unable to account for the random nature of the data. If the same code is debugged multiple times and one of the models is used to make predictions, intolerable variance is observed in the resulting reliability predictions. It is believed that data replication can remove this variance in lab type situations and that it is less than scientific to talk about validating a software reliability model without considering replication. It is also believed that data replication may prove to be cost effective in the real world, thus the research centered on verification of the need for replication and on methodologies for generating replicated data in a cost effective manner. The context of the debugging graph was pursued by simulation and experimentation. Simulation was done for the Basic model and the Log-Poisson model. Reasonable values of the parameters were assigned and used to generate simulated data which is then processed by the models in order to determine limitations on their accuracy. These experiments exploit the existing software and program specimens which are in AIR-LAB to measure the performance of reliability models.

Wilson, Larry↗

Commercial Product Activation Using RFID

Radio-frequency identification (RFID) would be used for commercial product activation, according to a proposal. What is new here is the concept of combining RFID with activation - more specifically, using RFID for activating commercial products (principally, electronic ones) and for performing such ancillary functions as tracking individual product units on production lines, tracking shipments, and updating inventories. According to the proposal, an RFID chip would be embedded in each product. The information encoded in the chip would include a unique number for identifying the product. An RFID reader at the point of sale would record the number of the product and would write digital information to the RFID chip for either immediate activation of the product or for later interrogation and processing. To be practical, an RFID product-activation system should satisfy a number of key requirements: the system should be designed to be integrable into the inventory-tracking and the data-processing and -communication infrastructures of businesses along the entire supply chain from manufacture to retail; the system should be resistant to sophisticated hacking; activation codes should be made sufficiently complexity to minimize the probability of activating stolen products; RFID activation equipment at points of sale must be capable to two-way RF communication for the purposes of reading information from, and writing information to, embedded RFID chips; the equipment at points of sale should be easily operable by sales clerks with little or no training; the point-of-sale equipment should verify activation and provide visible and/or audible signals indicating verification or lack thereof; and, the system should be able to handle millions of products per year with minimal human intervention, among other requirements.

Jedrey, Thomas↗

A Provably Correct Floating-Point Implementation of Well Clear Avionics Concepts

The NASA DAIDALUS library provides formal definitions for Detect-and-Avoid avionics concepts such as when an aircraft is well-clear with respect to the surrounding air traffic, i.e., it does not operate in such proximity to create a collision hazard. While several properties are proven correct for DAIDALUS assuming ideal real number arithmetic, an actual implementation that uses floating-point numbers may behave unexpectedly because of round-off errors and run-time exceptions. This paper presents an experience report on the application of a formal methods toolchain to extract and verify floating-point C code from a real-valued specification of the well-clear module of DAIDALUS. This toolchain comprises the PVS theorem prover, the PRECiSA floating-point analyzer and code generator, and the Frama-C analysis suite. The generated code is automatically instrumented to detect when the control flow of the floating-point program may diverge from the ideal real number specification, and it is annotated with contracts that state the maximum accumulated round-off error. The absence of overflows is also formally verified for the generated code. In order to apply the toolchain to an industrial case study such as DAIDALUS, a formally verified pre-processing of the input specification is performed, which includes a program slicing and several semantic-preserving simplifications.

Program verification↗

Experimental verification of a progressive damage model for composite laminates based on continuum damage mechanics

Progressive failure is a crucial concern when using laminated composites in structural design. Therefore the ability to model damage and predict the life of laminated composites is vital. The purpose of this research was to experimentally verify the application of the continuum damage model, a progressive failure theory utilizing continuum damage mechanics, to a toughened material system. Damage due to tension-tension fatigue was documented for the IM7/5260 composite laminates. Crack density and delamination surface area were used to calculate matrix cracking and delamination internal state variables, respectively, to predict stiffness loss. A damage dependent finite element code qualitatively predicted trends in transverse matrix cracking, axial splits and local stress-strain distributions for notched quasi-isotropic laminates. The predictions were similar to the experimental data and it was concluded that the continuum damage model provided a good prediction of stiffness loss while qualitatively predicting damage growth in notched laminates.

Coats, Timothy William↗

Integrated verification and testing system (IVTS) for HAL/S programs

The IVTS is a large software system designed to support user-controlled verification analysis and testing activities for programs written in the HAL/S language. The system is composed of a user interface and user command language, analysis tools and an organized data base of host system files. The analysis tools are of four major types: (1) static analysis, (2) symbolic execution, (3) dynamic analysis (testing), and (4) documentation enhancement. The IVTS requires a split HAL/S compiler, divided at the natural separation point between the parser/lexical analyzer phase and the target machine code generator phase. The IVTS uses the internal program form (HALMAT) between these two phases as primary input for the analysis tools. The dynamic analysis component requires some way to 'execute' the object HAL/S program. The execution medium may be an interpretive simulation or an actual host or target machine.

Senn, E. H.↗

Monte Carlo calculation and verification of the geometrical factors for the NPDGamma experiment

The NPDGamma experiment measures the parity-violating asymmetry in gamma-ray emission in the capture of polarized neutrons on liquid parahydrogen. The sensitivity to the asymmetry for each detector in the array is used as a parameter in the extraction of the physics asymmetry from the measured data. The detector array is approximately cylindrically symmetric around the target and a step-wise sinusoidal function has been used for the sensitivity in the previous iteration of the NPDGamma experiment, but deviations from cylindrical symmetry necessitate the use of a Monte Carlo model to determine corrections to the geometrical factors. For the calculations, source code modifications to MCNPX were done in order to calculate the sensitivity of each cesium iodide detector to the physics asymmetry. We describe the MCNPX model and results from calculations and how the results are validated through measurement of the parity violating asymmetry of gamma-rays from neutron capture on chlorine.

Grammer, K. B.↗

The Source Physics Experiment (SPE) Science Plan (Version 2.4c)

The Source Physics Experiment (SPE) series is a long-term NNSA research and development effort designed to improve U.S. arms control and nuclear nonproliferation verification and monitoring capabilities. The findings from the SPE will advance the United States’ nuclear explosion monitoring capabilities, particularly with respect to detection, discrimination and determination of yields associated with small nuclear explosions that can be lost amid the noisy seismo-acoustic background from other sources. The data generated from the SPE, a series of well-designed and recorded chemical explosions, will contribute to the development and validation of first-principles explosive source generated seismo-acoustic modeling codes. These codes will then facilitate the update of semi-empirical methods, currently based on historic test site data, such that key explosion observables can be reproduced, thus improving confidence in nuclear test monitoring in new areas and/or under novel emplacement conditions. The overall SPE project is comprised of both the development of the new explosion simulation codes and the chemical explosion test series. The chemical explosion test series will generate the empirical data required to both develop and validate the new simulation codes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Data Evaluation of Actinide Cross Sections: 230 Th and 231 Th

A new evaluation of the ENDL cross section set for Thorium (Z=90) is developed using the TALYS statistical model cross section code. The primary goal of this effort is to produce an evaluation that attempts to match as closely as possible fission cross sections developed through surrogate reaction techniques on actinide targets 230 Th and 231 Th. This evaluation effort and the processing needed to render its results into data libraries is a necessary step in making the efforts of nuclear experimentalists useful to the broad community of researchers engaged in simulations of nuclear fusion for basic and applied science. Another aspect, verification and validation against various AGEX experiments, is also presented. The end-product is an updated library that includes the latest measurements of fission cross sections for comparison against those measured via traditional techniques. All the steps in the evaluation, processing, validation and verification, and library release are described in the following sections. For completeness, the appendix contains all the parameters used in the TALYS cross section evaluation for neutrons incident on 230 Th and 231 Th.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

The Source Physics Experiment (SPE) Science Plan

The Source Physics Experiment (SPE) series is a long-term NNSA research and development effort designed to improve U.S. arms control and nuclear nonproliferation verification and monitoring capabilities. The findings from the SPE will advance the United States’ nuclear explosion monitoring capabilities, particularly with respect to detection, discrimination and determination of yields associated with small nuclear explosions that can be lost amid the noisy seismo-acoustic background from other sources. The data generated from the SPE, a series of well-designed and recorded chemical explosions, will contribute to the development and validation of first-principles explosive source generated seismo-acoustic modeling codes. These codes will then facilitate the update of semi-empirical methods, currently based on historic test site data, such that key explosion observables can be reproduced, thus improving confidence in nuclear test monitoring in new areas and/or under novel emplacement conditions. The overall SPE project is comprised of both the development of the new explosion simulation codes and the chemical explosion test series. The chemical explosion test series will generate the empirical data required to both develop and validate the new simulation codes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

TransFit: Finite element analysis data fitting software

The Advanced X-Ray Astrophysics Facility (AXAF) mission support team has made extensive use of geometric ray tracing to analyze the performance of AXAF developmental and flight optics. One important aspect of this performance modeling is the incorporation of finite element analysis (FEA) data into the surface deformations of the optical elements. TransFit is software designed for the fitting of FEA data of Wolter I optical surface distortions with a continuous surface description which can then be used by SAO's analytic ray tracing software, currently OSAC (Optical Surface Analysis Code). The improved capabilities of Transfit over previous methods include bicubic spline fitting of FEA data to accommodate higher spatial frequency distortions, fitted data visualization for assessing the quality of fit, the ability to accommodate input data from three FEA codes plus other standard formats, and options for alignment of the model coordinate system with the ray trace coordinate system. TransFit uses the AnswerGarden graphical user interface (GUI) to edit input parameters and then access routines written in PV-WAVE, C, and FORTRAN to allow the user to interactively create, evaluate, and modify the fit. The topics covered include an introduction to TransFit: requirements, designs philosophy, and implementation; design specifics: modules, parameters, fitting algorithms, and data displays; a procedural example; verification of performance; future work; and appendices on online help and ray trace results of the verification section.

Freeman, Mark↗

Multibody Based Digital Astronaut Dynamics Simulation

BACKGROUND: This study provides the Software, Robotics, & Simulation Division at the NASA Johnson Space Center with a verification tool for multibody dynamics simulation requiring human motion. The motivation stems from current studies of several Vibration Isolation & Stabilization(VIS)system designs that attenuate the moments and forces which would be transmitted to a spacecraft during an exercise. A multibody dynamics model for a proposed VIS was available previously[1], therefore modeling of the VIS was not needed for this work. The interest here is in creating the multibody dynamics model of an astronaut in motion which may be utilized independently or while attached to a mechanism. An existing simulation [2] that utilizes OpenSim [3,4] and an in-house multibody dynamics package (MBDyn) [5] is used in order to verify the astronaut model. The main advantage this model will have over the existing simulation is that everything will be processed in one tool. METHODS AND RESULTS: Creating the simulation required; estimation of Body Segment Inertial Parameters (BSIP),a multibody model of the human-VIS system, joint acceleration profiles, and input files for MBDyn, which is used for this analysis. The scaling factors provided by Dumas et al. [6] are utilized in estimating the BSIP. Anthropometric data are used for estimating these parameters, the Anthropometric Survey of US Army Personnel (ANSUR II) [7] was the source. The astronaut model consists of 15 bodies, 14 joints and 32 degrees of freedom, with the dynamics topology generated using the center of mass locations and anthropometric data. MBDyn has an option for prescribed joint motion (PJM), which requires joint acceleration data as input. The joint angle data is first obtained from a motion capture system and then processed through code that has been created to generate approximate joint acceleration profiles. The topology tree for the astronaut model begins at the right foot up to the pelvis where there is one branch for going down the left leg and another for the torso. The torso branch leads to branches for the arms and a leaf body for the head/neck segment. For attachment to the VIS, the heel of the right foot is connected to the VIS platform through a fixed joint, resembling a foot restraint. The left foot does not attach to the platform in order to prevent a system with a closed loop. Topology and symmetry of the astronaut model were verified through kinematic analysis. Further verification of the forces and moments transmitted to the VIS were verified against the existing simulation. There was a satisfactory level of agreement when testing a simple motion, for example, rocking back and forth. Full exercise motions are to be tested soon. The main outcome has been a novel application of MBDyn for biomechanics modeling that is now available for dynamic simulations involving human motion. The estimation of BSIP was another useful result of this study, requiring only 15 inputs for generating mass properties of a theoretical astronaut model. Expansion on this work is possible by going through an alternative route in obtaining the joint motion data. Instead of high-tech and often expensive motion capture systems, an individual may watch videos with high focus and at a slow motion for each individual segment in order to determine the initial and final time and angle for that specific degree of freedom. Synthetic trajectories may also be created if there is no video reference available.

F N Matari↗

Verification and validation of residual stresses in composite structures

Process-induced residual stresses occur in composite structures composed of dissimilar materials. As these residual stresses could result in fracture, their consideration when designing composite parts is necessary. However, the experimental determination of residual stresses in prototype parts can be time and cost prohibitive. Alternatively, it is possible for computational tools to predict potential residual stresses. Therefore, the objectives of the presented work are to demonstrate an efficient method for simulating residual stresses in composite parts, as well as the potential value of statistical methods during analyses for which material properties are unknown. Specifically, a simplified residual stress modeling approach is implemented within Sandia National Laboratories’ SIERRA/SolidMechanics code. Concurrent with the model development, bi-material composite structures are designed and manufactured to exhibit significant residual stresses. Then, the presented modeling approach is rigorously verified and validated through simulations of the bi-material composite structures’ manufacturing processes, including a mesh convergence study, sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty quantification. The simulations’ final results show adequate agreement with the experimental measurements, indicating the validity of a simple modeling approach, as well as a necessity for the inclusion of material parameter uncertainty in the final residual stress predictions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Standards, dissemination, and best practices in systems biology

In this study, the reproducibility of scientific research is crucial to the success of the scientific method. Here, we review the current best practices when publishing mechanistic models in systems biology. We recommend, where possible, to use software engineering strategies such as testing, verification, validation, documentation, versioning, iterative development, and continuous integration. In addition, adhering to the Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable modeling principles allows other scientists to collaborate and build off of each other’s work. Existing standards such as Systems Biology Markup Language, CellML, or Simulation Experiment Description Markup Language can greatly improve the likelihood that a published model is reproducible, especially if such models are deposited in well-established model repositories. Where models are published in executable programming languages, the source code and their data should be published as open-source in public code repositories together with any documentation and testing code. For complex models, we recommend container-based solutions where any software dependencies and the run-time context can be easily replicated.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Development of Neutron Energy Spectral Signatures for Passive Monitoring of Spent Nuclear Fuels in Dry Cask Storage

Demand for spent nuclear fuel dry casks as an interim storage solution has increased globally and the IAEA has expressed a need for robust safeguards and verification technologies for ensuring the continuity of knowledge and the integrity of radioactive materials inside spent fuel casks. Existing research has been focusing on “fingerprinting” casks based on count rate statistics to represent radiation emission signatures. The current research aims to expand to include neutron energy spectral information as part of the fuel characteristics. First, spent fuel composition data are taken from the Next Generation Safeguards Initiative Spent Fuel Libraries, representative for Westinghouse 17 x 17 PWR assemblies. The ORIGEN-S code then calculates the spontaneous fission and (α,n) emissions for individual fuel rods, followed by detailed MCNP simulations of neutrons transported through the fuel assemblies. A comprehensive database of neutron energy spectral profiles is to be constructed, with different enrichment, burn-up, and cooling time conditions. The end goal is to utilize the computational spent fuel library, predictive algorithm, and a pressurized 4 He scintillator to verify the spent fuel assemblies inside a cask. This work identifies neutron spectral signatures that correlate with the cooling time of spent fuel. Both the total and relative contributions from spontaneous fission and (α,n) change noticeably with respect to cooling time, due to the relatively short half-life (18 years) of the major neutron source 244 Cm. Identification of this and other neutron spectral signatures allows the characterization of spent nuclear fuels in dry cask storage.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Fission Product Transport in TRISO Particles and Pebbles

This document demonstrates completion of the goals described in the technical narrative of the FOA project titled: ”Modeling and Simulation Development Pathways to Accelerating KP-FHR Licensing” regarding fission product transport in the Kairos-proposed fuel pebble by INL and Kairos Power. Showcased in this report are code developments and simulations in BISON that extend the state of the art in computation and understanding of fission product transport in a TRISO fuel particle and pebble. These enhancements lay the foundation for making predictions of fission product transport that can be used as input in the fuel licensing process. This was achieved by installing existing fuel material models originally used in PARFUME, developing a new failure probability method that is efficient and multi-dimensional, employing material homogenization, and expanding verification and validation simulations to demonstrate the efficacy of the work. All this work is leveraged to spotlight the main deliverable; a three-dimensional model and corresponding demonstration simulation of a pebble, which will serve as the starting point for models used to predict fission product release.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

A Python Script to Read MCNP6.3 Surface-Source Files

This report provides a Python script to read an MCNP ® surface source file created with the SSW card with SYM = 0 (i.e., the default symmetry treatment). For background: the general format of an MCNP surface-source file is described in; however, that document did not provide coding and/or a tool to interrogate such files. The current format will not be given in this document other than through the record-read statements necessary for the script to function. The reader capability in this report is augmented with the ability to directly write a couple demonstrative outputs: 1. A comma-separated value (CSV) file containing particle phase-space state information and 2. A Matplotlib histogram of the energy distribution of the particles. This report also describes accompanying verification work that shows the script performing as required with MCNP6.2, MCNP6.3, and (expected) MCNP6.4 surface-source files. However, users of the enclosed script must still verify that the script is behaving correctly for their own work.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗