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Final Technical Report: Impact of Wildfires on Solar Generation, Reserves, and Energy Prices

This study quantifies the potential impacts of wildfires on the California grid, specifically the impacts under three different wildfire scenarios: a "no wildfire" scenario and two wildfire-specific scenarios, "2020 wildfire" and "enhanced wildfire" (with both wildfire scenarios assuming spatial distribution of the wildfire location the same as the 2020 fires). The study combines each scenario with two solar energy infrastructures: one corresponding to the current solar installation and the other to future (midcentury) solar installation. The analysis is conducted using state-of-the-science modeling tools: primarily WRF-Chem for atmospheric modeling with chemistry to account for impacts of wildfires on solar radiation and PLEXOS for electricity market simulations. The analysis suggests that wildfires can significantly attenuate solar radiation at both short downwind distances as well as far from the emissions sources. Although the study is limited in scope, and the analysis studies only a few of the many factors that can affect photovoltaic generation and electricity markets, it indicates that wildfire smoke is an important factor that needs to be carefully considered and analyzed in planning the future grid.

electricity market↗

Solar Tests of Aperture Plate Materials for Solar Thermal Dish Collectors

If a malfunction occurs in a solar thermal point-focus distributed receiver power plant while a concentrator is pointed at the Sun, motion of the concentrator may stop. As the Sun moves relative to the Earth, the spot of concentrated sunlight then slowly walks off the receiver aperture, across the receiver face plate, and perhaps across adjacent portions of the concentrator. Intense local heating by the concentrated sunlight may damage or destroy these parts. The behavior of various materials under conditions simulating walk-off of a parabolic dish solar collector were evaluated. Each test consisted of exposure to concentrated sunlight at a peak flux density of about 7000 kW/square meter for 15 minutes. Types of materials tested included graphite, silicon carbide, silica, various silicates, alumina, zirconia, aluminum, copper, steel, and polytetrafluoroethylene. The only material that neither cracked nor melted was grade G-90 graphite. Grade CS graphite, a lower cost commercial grade, cracked half-way across, but did not fall apart. Both of these grades are medium-grain extruded graphites. A graphite cloth (graphitized polyacrylonitrile) showed fair performance when tested as a single thin ply; it might be useful as a multi-ply assembly. High purity slipcast silica showed some promise also.

Jaffe, L. D.↗

Solar tests of aperture plate materials for solar thermal dish collectors

If a malfunction occurs in a solar thermal point-focus distributed receiver power plant while a concentrator is pointed at the sun, motion of the concentrator may stop. As the sun moves relative to the earth, the spot of concentrated sunlight then slowly walks off the receiver aperture, across the receiver face plate, and perhaps across adjacent portions of the concentrator. Intense local heating by the concentrated sunlight may damage or destroy these parts. The behavior of various materials under conditions simulating walk-off of a parabolic dish solar collector were evaluated. Each test consisted of exposure to concentrated sunlight at a peak flux density of about 7000 kW/square meter for 15 minutes. Types of materials tested included graphite, silicon carbide, silica, various silicates, alumina, zirconia, aluminum, copper, steel, and polytetrafluroethylene. The only material that neither cracked nor melted was grade G-90 graphite. Grade CS graphite, a lower cost commercial grade, cracked half-way across, but did not fail apart. Both of these grades are medium-grain extruded graphites. A graphite cloth (graphitized polyacrylonitrile) showed fair performance when tested as a single thin ply; it might be useful as a multi-ply assembly. High purity slipcast silica showed some promise also.

Jaffe, L. D.↗

Solar tests of aperture plate materials for solar thermal dish collectors

If a malfunction occurs in a solar thermal point-focus distributed receiver power plant while a concentrator is pointed at the sun, motion of the concentrator may stop. As the sun moves relative to the earth, the spot of concentrated sunlight then slowly walks off the receiver aperture, across the receiver face plate, and perhaps across adjacent portions of the concentrator. Intense local heating by the concentrated sunlight may damage or destroy these parts. The behavior of various materials under conditions simulating walk-off of a parabolic dish solar collector were evaluated. Each test consisted of exposure to concentrated sunlight at a peak flux density of about 7000 kW/square meter for 15 minutes. Types of materials tested included graphite, silicon carbide, silica, various silicates, alumina, zirconia, aluminum, copper, steel, and polytetrafluoroethylene. The only material that neither cracked nor melted was grade G-90 graphite. Grade CS graphite, a lower cost commercial grade, cracked half-way across, but did not fall apart. Both of these grades are medium-grain extruded graphites. A graphite cloth (graphitized polyacrylonitrile) showed fair performance when tested as a single thin ply; it might be useful as a multi-ply assembly. High purity slipcast silica showed some promise also.

Jaffe, L. D.↗

Carrier transport through the ultrathin silicon-oxide layer in tunnel oxide passivated contact (TOPCon) c-Si solar cells

The carrier transport through the silicon-oxide (SiO x ) layer in tunnel oxide passivated contact (TOPCon) c-Si solar cells has been studied experimentally and by simulation. The current intensity versus voltage (J-V) characteristics of GaIn/n-c-Si/SiO x /n + -poly-Si/Al structures shows a linear Ohmic characteristic, while a non-Ohmic behavior is observed in the samples without the n + -poly-Si contact layer. Conductive Atomic Force Microscopy (c-AFM) images reveal some current spikes on the surface of the samples, which could be related to the transport through pinholes. The simulation results show that 1) a rectification characteristic is obtained when only the tunneling mechanism is included, 2) both the reverse saturation current and the forward current increase when a small amount of transport through pinholes is introduced, and 3) finally a linear Ohmic behavior is observed when the pinhole transport component reaches a certain level. Furthermore, the simulation for whole TOPCon solar cells provides some useful results. For very thin SiO x (< 1.2 nm), the tunneling provides sufficient high tunneling probability and high efficiency TOPCon solar cells can be obtained without transport through pinholes if the passivation is ensured; while for a relatively thick SiO x (> 1.2 nm) without the transport through pinholes, the TOPCon solar cell shows a poor fill factor (FF) with a high series resistance (Rs) because the tunneling does not provide a sufficient high transport channel for carrier transport, and the introduction of a small number of transports through pinholes improves the FF and reduces the Rs, hence improves the PCE. However, a high possibility for carrier going through pinholes reduces all of the performance parameters and degrades PCE for all the cases simulated. Therefore, an optimized pinhole density and size distribution is critical engineering for solar cell performance optimization. However, the establishment of an optimized method to precisely control the pinhole formation and characterization is still on the way.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

OpenDSS-wrapper (Distribution System Co-simulator with Distributed Energy Resource Controls)

Electric grid transformation with the proliferation of distributed energy resources (DER), such as solar photovoltaic (PV), wind, advanced energy storage technologies, and electric vehicles, and the growing use of communication technologies in both transmission and distribution systems are increasing the need to capture the interactions among these systems. Advanced modeling, control, and simulation tools that can perform co-simulation of electric power systems with other domains become indispensable to accurately model these interactions. To address this need, we have developed a codebase that integrates an electric power distribution system simulator, DER models, and DER controls. The codebase is based on OpenDSS, a distribution system simulator, and an existing open source co-simulation framework called HELICS. The contribution and uniqueness of the proposed codebase is that it tailors the generic HELICS framework specifically for distribution grid-related applications. The codebase includes an OpenDSS wrapper that controls the simulation, implements advanced DER controls, and extracts power flows, voltages, and other power system element information from the the distribution network modeled in OpenDSS. Sample HELICS federates, including a federate for OpenDSS, are provided that can communicate messages through the HELICS interface. Sample federates can be modified and additional HELICS federates can be added by the user depending on their use case requirements. SEE ALSO: https://github.com/NREL/dss-cosim

Blonsky, Michael↗

Mn-53-Cr-53 Systematics of R-Chondrite NWA 753

Chondrules and chondrites are interpreted as objects formed in the early solar system, and it is important to study them in order to elucidate its evolution. Here, we report the study of the Mn-Cr systematics of the R-Chondrite NWA753 and compare the results to other chondrite data. The goal was to determine Cr isotopic and age variations among chondrite groups with different O-isotope signatures. The Mn-53-Cr-53 method as applied to individual chondrules [1] or bulk chondrites [2] is based on the assumption that 53Mn was initially homogeneously distributed in that portion the solar nebula where the chondrules and/or chondrites formed. However, different groups of chondrites formed from regions of different O-isotope compositions. So, different types of chondrites also may have had different initial Mn-53 abundances and/or Cr isotopic compositions. Thus, it is important to determine the Cr isotopic systematics among chondrites from various chondrite groups. We are studying CO-chondrite ALH83108 and Tagish Lake in addition to R-Chondrite NWA753. These meteorites have very distinct O-isotope compositions (Figure 1).

Jogo, K.↗

Microgrid Hardening Design Toolkit: Puerto Rico Use Case

This document provides a comprehensive example of the microgrid hardening framework and the Sandia developed Microgrid Hardening Design Toolkit v0.27 using a census tract in a coastal area of southern Puerto Rico as a case study. The census tract (72123953100) is located in the municipality of Salinas. Currently, the La Margarita neighborhood within this census tract is part of the Department of Energy’s Cohort 5 of the Energy Technology Innovation and Partnership Program (ETIPP). The neighborhood’s local energy cooperative, Abeyno Coop, has been operating several residential solar photovoltaic (PV) and battery energy storage system (BESS) installations (with around 30 rooftop solar systems as of 2026). As part of the ETIPP project, Abeyno Coop is planning to integrate a larger microgrid into the existing distribution feeder in the area, including solar PV and BESS to supply energy for homes and critical loads such as the medical facilities and the community center that provides emergency shelter and backup power during outages.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Solar wind composition measurements by the Ulysses SWICS experiment during transient solar wind flows

For the March/April 1991 time period, the alpha/proton abundance ratio, the proton kinetic temperature and speed distributions, and the relative abundance of O(+7) to O(+6) is determined over each 13-minute duty cycle of the Solar Wind Ion Composition Spectrometer (SWICs) experiment on Ulysses. The ratio O(+7)/O(+6) (as a relative measure of ionization temperature) is shown to be useful in identifying possible coronal mass ejection (CME) events. We report measurements of silicon/oxygen abundance ratios and silicon and oxygen charge state distributions in the solar wind during a CME event and compare these compositions to a 'normal' solar wind time period.

Galvin, A. B.↗

Plasma convection in the high-latitude F-region

Plasma convection patterns in the high-latitude F region are examined, and their implications for F region plasma distributions and the magnetosphere-solar wind interaction are discussed. In-situ electric field measurements in the ionospheric plasma above invariant latitudes of 60 deg are presented which show that the dominant plasma motion is one of two-cell convection perpendicular to the magnetic field, with motion directed away from the sun at invariant latitudes above 70-75 deg and return flow at lower latitudes. AE-C data revealing the presence of eastward, rather than antisunward, convection in the polar cap region is also noted. Analysis of the F region plasma distributions that may result from the two convection patterns indicates that total ion concentrations may differ by two or three orders of magnitude in different signatures of the high-latitude F region, and may account for the mid-latitude F region trough. The F region patterns are also shown to imply that in an open magnetosphere, a region of reconnection extends across a substantial portion of the magnetotail, while in a closed magnetosphere, the viscous interaction may weaken as the plasma moves down the tail, or remain strong with the boundary layer extending down the tail. The importance of further measurements of the stability of the F region convection pattern is pointed out.

Heelis, R. A.↗

Size Dependence of Dust Distribution around the Earth Orbit

In the solar system, interplanetary dust particles (IDPs) originating mainly from asteroid collisions and cometary activities drift to Earth orbit due to Poynting–Robertson drag. We analyzed the thermal emission from IDPs that was observed by the first Japanese infrared astronomical satellite, AKARI . The observed surface brightness in the trailing direction of the Earth orbit is 3.7% greater than that in the leading direction in the 9 μ m band and 3.0% in the 18 μ m band. In order to reveal dust properties causing leading–trailing surface brightness asymmetry, we numerically integrated orbits of the Sun, the Earth, and a dust particle as a restricted three-body problem including radiation from the Sun. The initial orbits of particles are determined according to the orbits of main-belt asteroids or Jupiter-family comets. Orbital trapping in mean motion resonances results in a significant leading–trailing asymmetry so that intermediate sized dust (∼10–100 μ m) produces a greater asymmetry than zodiacal light. The leading–trailing surface brightness difference integrated over the size distribution of the asteroidal dust is obtained to be 27.7% and 25.3% in the 9 μ m and 18 μ m bands, respectively. In contrast, the brightness difference for cometary dust is calculated as 3.6% and 3.1% in the 9 μ m and 18 μ m bands, respectively, if the maximum dust radius is set to be s {sub max} = 3000 μ m. Taking into account these values and their errors, we conclude that the contribution of asteroidal dust to the zodiacal infrared emission is less than ∼10%, while cometary dust of the order of 1 mm mainly accounts for the zodiacal light in infrared.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Sensitivity of the normalized difference vegetation index to subpixel canopy cover, soil albedo, and pixel scale

An analytical framework is provided for examining the physically based behavior of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) in terms of the variability in bulk subpixel landscape components and with respect to variations in pixel scales, within the context of the stochastic-geometric canopy reflectance model. Analysis focuses on regional scale variability in horizontal plant density and soil background reflectance distribution. Modeling is generalized to different plant geometries and solar angles through the use of the nondimensional solar-geometric similarity parameter. Results demonstrate that, for Poisson-distributed plants and for one deterministic distribution, NDVI increases with increasing subpixel fractional canopy amount, decreasing soil background reflectance, and increasing shadows, at least within the limitations of the geometric reflectance model. The NDVI of a pecan orchard and a juniper landscape is presented and discussed.

Jasinski, Michael F.↗

A dynamical model of upper-atmospheric helium

This numerical study of the global distribution of helium in the terrestrial thermosphere is based on the extension of a three-dimensional single-fluid numerical model of the thermosphere previously developed by the authors to treat the dynamics of a minor gas imbedded in a background gas made up of N2, O2, and O. The Cira (1972) model of the upper atmosphere, based on satellite drag data, is used to specify the background gas density and temperature as functions of altitude, latitude, and local time for a given day of the year. Specific emphasis is placed on a study of the helium distribution at solstice, i.e., the 'winter helium bulge'. Effects of solar activity, eddy diffusion, and exospheric transport on the global distribution of helium are investigated. The model reproduces the general features of the winter helium bulge, including the variation of its amplitude with solar activity, as determined by comparison of data from several recent satellite-borne mass spectrometers.

Straus, J. M.↗

Helium and Hydrogen of the Local Interstellar Mdium Observed in the Vicinity of the Sun

The Sun illuminates the hydrogen and helium atoms of the interstellar medium through which it travels. As a result, the Sun and the whole solar system are imbedded in a glow of the resonance lines of hydrogen (H Lyman alpha; 121.6nm) and helium (58.4nm). From the intensity distribution of the glow in the solar system, the density of H and He in the local interstellar medium (LISM) and the direction of the relative motion between the Sun and the LISM in the vicinity of the Sun are derived. The velocity module and the LISM temperature are more adequately found from a measurement of the Lyman alpha line shape, which is an image of the velocity distribution of H atoms. The result is summarized and together the methods of interpretation and difficulties are dicusssed.

Bertaux, J. L.↗

Additive Manufacturing of Fuel Injectors

Additive manufacturing (AM), also known as 3D-printing, has been shifting from a novelty prototyping paradigm to a legitimate manufacturing tool capable of creating components for highly complex engineered products. An emerging AM technology for producing metal parts is the laser powder bed fusion (L-PBF) process; however, industry manufacturing specifications and component design practices for L-PBF have not yet been established. Solar Turbines Incorporated (Solar), an industrial gas turbine manufacturer, has been evaluating AM technology for development and production applications with the desire to enable accelerated product development cycle times, overall turbine efficiency improvements, and supply chain flexibility relative to conventional manufacturing processes (casting, brazing, welding). Accordingly, Solar teamed with EWI on a joint two-and-a-half-year project with the goal of developing a production L-PBF AM process capable of consistently producing high-nickel alloy material suitable for high temperature gas turbine engine fuel injector components. The project plan tasks were designed to understand the interaction of the process variables and their combined impact on the resultant AM material quality. The composition of the high-nickel alloy powders selected for this program met the conventional cast Hastelloy X compositional limits and were commercially available in different particle size distributions (PSD) from two suppliers. Solar produced all the test articles and both EWI and Solar shared responsibility for analyzing them. The effects of powder metal input stock, laser parameters, heat treatments, and post-finishing methods were evaluated. This process knowledge was then used to generate tensile, fatigue, and creep material properties data curves suitable for component design activities. The key process controls for ensuring consistent material properties were documented in AM powder and process specifications. The basic components of the project were: • Powder metal input stock: Powder characterization, dimensional accuracy, metallurgical characterization, and mechanical properties evaluation. • Process parameters: Laser parameter effects, post-printing heat-treatment development, mechanical properties evaluation, and post-finishing technique. • Material design curves: Room and elevated temperature tensiles, low cycle fatigue, and creep rupture properties curves generated. • AM specifications: Key metal powder characteristics, laser parameters, and heat-treatment controls identified.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Flexible Models for Solar Sail Control

Solar sails employ a unique form of propulsion, gaining momentum from incident and reflected photons. However, the momentum transferred by an individual photon is extremely small. Consequently, a solar sail must have an extremely large surface area and also be extremely light. The flexibility of the sail then must be considered when designing or evaluating control laws. In this paper, solar sail flexibility and its influence on control effectiveness is considered using idealized two-dimensional models to represent physical phenomena rather than a specific design. Differential equations of motion are derived for a distributed parameter model of a flexible solar sail idealized as a rotating central hub with two opposing flexible booms. This idealization is appropriate for solar sail designs in which the vibrational modes of the sail and supporting booms move together allowing the sail mass to be distributed along the booms in the idealized model. A reduced analytical model of the flexible response is considered. Linear feedback torque control is applied at the central hub. Two translational disturbances and a torque disturbance also act at the central hub representing the equivalent effect of deflecting sail shape about a reference line. Transient simulations explore different control designs and their effectiveness for controlling orientation, for reducing flexible motion and for disturbance rejection. A second model also is developed as a two-dimensional "pathfinder" model to calculate the effect of solar sail shape on the resultant thrust, in-plane force and torque at the hub. The analysis is then extended to larger models using the finite element method. The finite element modeling approach is verified by comparing results from a two-dimensional finite element model with those from the analytical model. The utility of the finite element modeling approach for this application is then illustrated through examples based on a full finite element model.

Weaver Smith, Suzanne↗

Interpretation of Solar Wind Ion Composition Measurements from Ulysses

The ion compositions measured in situ in the solar wind are important since the ion fractions carry information on the plasma conditions in the inner corona. The conditions in the inner corona define the properties of the solar wind plasma flow. Thus, if the ion fraction measurements can be used to unravel some of the plasma parameters in the inner corona, they will provide a valuable contribution to solving the heating and acceleration problem of the solar wind. The ion charge states in the solar wind carry information on electron temperature, electron density and ion flow speed. They are also sensitive to the shape of the electron distribution function. Through carefully modeling the solar wind and calculating the ion fractions predicted for different solar wind conditions, constraints on the electron temperature and ion flow speeds can be placed if the electron density is measured using polarization brightness measurements.

Esser, Ruth↗