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Quantifying Carbon Cycle Extremes and Attributing Their Causes Under Climate and Land Use and Land Cover Change From 1850 to 2300

The increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) mole fraction affects global climate through radiative (trapping longwave radiation) and physiological effects (reduction of plant transpiration). We use the simulations of the Community Earth System Model (CESM1-BGC) forced with Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 to investigate climate-vegetation feedbacks from 1850 to the year 2300. Human-induced land use and land cover change (LULCC), through biogeochemical and biogeophysical processes, alter the climate and modify photosynthetic activity. The changing characteristics of extreme anomalies in photosynthesis, referred to as carbon cycle extremes, increase the uncertainty of terrestrial ecosystems to act as a net carbon sink. However, the role of LULCC in altering carbon cycle extremes under business-as-usual (continuously rising) CO 2 emissions is unknown. Here we show that LULCC magnifies the intensity, frequency, and extent of carbon cycle extremes, resulting in a net reduction in expected photosynthetic activity in the future. We found that large temporally contiguous negative carbon cycle extremes are due to a persistent decrease in soil moisture, which is triggered by declines in precipitation. With LULCC and global warming, vegetation exhibits increased vulnerability to hot and dry environmental conditions, increasing the frequency of fire events and resulting in considerable losses in photosynthetic activity. While most regions show strengthening of negative carbon cycle extremes, a few locations show a weakening effect driven by declining vegetation cover or benign climate conditions for photosynthesis. Increasing hot, dry, and fire-driven carbon cycle extremes are essential for improving carbon cycle modeling and estimation of ecosystem responses to LULCC and rising CO 2 mole fractions. Moreover, large aberrations in vegetation productivity represent potential and growing threats to human lives, wildlife, and food security.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

COSMIC: Carbon Monoxide and Soot in Microgravity Inverse Combustion

Almost seventy percent of deaths in accidental fires are caused by inhalation of toxins such as carbon monoxide (CO) and smoke (soot) that form during underventilated burning. The COSMIC project examines the formation mechanisms of CO and soot during underventilated combustion, achieved presently using laminar, inverse diffusion flames (IDFs) formed between an air jet and surrounding fuel. A major hypothesis of the project is that the IDF mimics underventilated combustion because carbon-containing species that form on the fuel side of the flame (such as CO and soot) can escape without passing through an oxidizing flame tip. An IDF literature review was presented at the last microgravity workshop, and a few additional IDF papers have appeared since that meeting. The COSMIC project is entering the third year of its four-year funding cycle. The first two years have been devoted to designing and constructing a rig for use in the NASA 2.2-second drop tower. A few computations and laboratory experiments have been performed. The goals of this paper are to discuss the use of numerical simulation during burner design, to present computational and experimental results that support the hypothesis that IDFs are similar to underventilated flames, and to delineate future plans.

Blevins, L. G.↗

Creating the Environment for Exploration Habitats

The Crew and Thermal Systems Division’s (CTSD) 20 Foot Chamber has undergone significant modifications to support NASA’s future human exploration missions to the Moon, Mars, and beyond. Existing chamber systems such as Vacuum/Repress, Heating Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC), and Fire Suppression System (FSS), were upgraded, while new systems such as Air Revitalization and Gas Distribution were added. In addition, the chamber was outfitted with crew quarters, hygiene areas, storage, and workspaces. Teams across the Johnson Space Center (JSC) worked together to overcome the logistical and operational challenges of the planned test parameters. The ultimate goal was to create an analog testbed in which a maximum of 8 human test subjects could safely live and work for at least 11 days in the same conditions (reduced pressures, Oxygen concentrations, etc.) as those expected inside a base spacecraft. This would allow researchers to study the effects of such environments on humans and to validate proposed Prebreathe Protocols to enable the safe performance of surface extravehicular activities (EVAs). Over the last eighteen months, the CTSD Systems Test Branch has performed six tests of varying lengths and atmospheres for both NASA and commercial partners. To date, researchers now have collected data on 48 test subjects in the course of 42 days and over 130 simulated EVAs. This paper will discuss the history of the 20 Foot Chamber, its long road to becoming an analog testbed for human exploration, and the capabilities that make it a unique, world class facility for NASA and commercial human exploration missions. It will provide an overview of past and future testing, and the lessons learned along the way.

Cristina Aurora Anchondo↗

Creating the Environment for Exploration Habitats

The Crew and Thermal Systems Division’s (CTSD) 20 Foot Chamber has undergone significant modifications to support NASA’s future human exploration missions to the Moon, Mars, and beyond. Existing chamber systems such as Vacuum/Repress, Heating Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC), and Fire Suppression System (FSS), were upgraded, while new systems such as Air Revitalization and Gas Distribution were added. In addition, the chamber was outfitted with crew quarters, hygiene areas, storage, and workspaces. Teams across the Johnson Space Center (JSC) worked together to overcome the logistical and operational challenges of the planned test parameters. The ultimate goal was to create an analog testbed in which a maximum of 8 human test subjects could safely live and work for at least 11 days in the same conditions (reduced pressures, Oxygen concentrations, etc.) as those expected inside a base spacecraft. This would allow researchers to study the effects of such environments on humans and to validate proposed Prebreathe Protocols to enable the safe performance of surface extravehicular activities (EVAs). Over the last eighteen months, the CTSD Systems Test Branch has performed six tests of varying lengths and atmospheres for both NASA and commercial partners. To date, researchers now have collected data on 48 test subjects in the course of 42 days and over 130 simulated EVAs. This paper will discuss the history of the 20 Foot Chamber, its long road to becoming an analog testbed for human exploration, and the capabilities that make it a unique, world class facility for NASA and commercial human exploration missions. It will provide an overview of past and future testing, and the lessons learned along the way.

Cristina A Anchondo↗

Spiking Neurons for Analysis of Patterns

Artificial neural networks comprising spiking neurons of a novel type have been conceived as improved pattern-analysis and pattern-recognition computational systems. These neurons are represented by a mathematical model denoted the state-variable model (SVM), which among other things, exploits a computational parallelism inherent in spiking-neuron geometry. Networks of SVM neurons offer advantages of speed and computational efficiency, relative to traditional artificial neural networks. The SVM also overcomes some of the limitations of prior spiking-neuron models. There are numerous potential pattern-recognition, tracking, and data-reduction (data preprocessing) applications for these SVM neural networks on Earth and in exploration of remote planets. Spiking neurons imitate biological neurons more closely than do the neurons of traditional artificial neural networks. A spiking neuron includes a central cell body (soma) surrounded by a tree-like interconnection network (dendrites). Spiking neurons are so named because they generate trains of output pulses (spikes) in response to inputs received from sensors or from other neurons. They gain their speed advantage over traditional neural networks by using the timing of individual spikes for computation, whereas traditional artificial neurons use averages of activity levels over time. Moreover, spiking neurons use the delays inherent in dendritic processing in order to efficiently encode the information content of incoming signals. Because traditional artificial neurons fail to capture this encoding, they have less processing capability, and so it is necessary to use more gates when implementing traditional artificial neurons in electronic circuitry. Such higher-order functions as dynamic tasking are effected by use of pools (collections) of spiking neurons interconnected by spike-transmitting fibers. The SVM includes adaptive thresholds and submodels of transport of ions (in imitation of such transport in biological neurons). These features enable the neurons to adapt their responses to high-rate inputs from sensors, and to adapt their firing thresholds to mitigate noise or effects of potential sensor failure. The mathematical derivation of the SVM starts from a prior model, known in the art as the point soma model, which captures all of the salient properties of neuronal response while keeping the computational cost low. The point-soma latency time is modified to be an exponentially decaying function of the strength of the applied potential. Choosing computational efficiency over biological fidelity, the dendrites surrounding a neuron are represented by simplified compartmental submodels and there are no dendritic spines. Updates to the dendritic potential, calcium-ion concentrations and conductances, and potassium-ion conductances are done by use of equations similar to those of the point soma. Diffusion processes in dendrites are modeled by averaging among nearest-neighbor compartments. Inputs to each of the dendritic compartments come from sensors. Alternatively or in addition, when an affected neuron is part of a pool, inputs can come from other spiking neurons. At present, SVM neural networks are implemented by computational simulation, using algorithms that encode the SVM and its submodels. However, it should be possible to implement these neural networks in hardware: The differential equations for the dendritic and cellular processes in the SVM model of spiking neurons map to equivalent circuits that can be implemented directly in analog very-large-scale integrated (VLSI) circuits.

Huntsberger, Terrance↗

String Potentiometers for Supersonic Split-Line Thrust Vector Amplification Factor Verification

The static fire of NASA’s Mars Ascent Vehicle (MAV) first stage Solid Rocket Motor (SRM1) Demonstration Motor-1 (DM-1) occurred at Edwards Air Force Base (AFB) on April 7, 2023. Among other objectives, this test successfully demonstrated the Thrust Vector Control (TVC) system, including the Technology Readiness Level (TRL) of the Supersonic Split-Line (SSSL) nozzle. An essential characteristic of the SSSL is the thrust vector amplification factor (TVAF) it exhibits; however, empirically quantifying this behavior is difficult due to the limitations of measuring the internal nozzle gas dynamics of a Solid Rocket Motor (SRM) during burn. Using four string potentiometers mounted inside the test chamber connected to the nozzle and motor case and a thrust measurement system (TMS), the TVAF can be derived from the known nozzle and motor geometry. Increasing the accuracy of the TVAF is essential for certain groups working on the MAV including the Guidance, Navigation, and Control (GN&C) group, who prior to DM-1, solely relied on Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) data in their Monte Carlo simulations for TVAF. The methodology shown in this paper can be generally applied to any test article implementing a SSSL nozzle, presuming string potentiometers are a viable option and the facility is conducive of their implementation.

Supersonic Split-Line↗

Calorimeter Heat Flux Trends in NASA’s Subscale Rotating Detonation Rocket Engine

A calorimeter-style rotating detonation rocket engine (RDRE) outer chamber body was designed, additively manufactured in GRCop-42, and hot-fire tested in test cell 105 at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) in Huntsville, AL in August 2024. Steady-state, spatially resolved heat flux and chamber pressure were measured at 13 and 9 locations from the injector face, respectively, for a variety of test conditions and hardware configurations with gaseous methane and oxygen propellants. The 2-in. diameter highly instrumented design, enabled by metal additive manufacturing (AM), allowed for simultaneous measurement of heat flux and chamber pressure through 44 long duration hot-fire tests without failure. Of the 44 tests, only 3 of the tests featured chamber pressures below 100 psia and are discussed in this work. Heat flux trends for this subscale hardware are explored with respect to local propellant mass flux for several different injectors, chamber lengths, and chamber “subsonic” area ratios (contraction ratios). Results show that for increasing chamber pressure, a reduced amount of energy per kilogram of propellant is transferred to the wall. Switching injectors affects the near-face heat flux and chamber pressure profiles. Chamber length does not noticeably affect the heat flux profile but increases bulk heat load. A subsonic area ratio greater than 1 reduces heat losses to the wall compared to a straight annulus case. Equivalence ratio shift did not significantly affect heat flux. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and conjugate heat transfer (CHT) analyses were performed to delineate 3-D heat transfer and coolant mass flow maldistribution effects and create a calorimeter transfer function to transform heat flux data and mitigate the profile distortions. Additional CFD/CHT simulations were performed using experimental data as boundary conditions to assess local nucleate boiling propensity during testing and to assess projected hot wall temperatures for future fatigue assessment. Vapor fractions were observed locally for several cases. It is anticipated that this effort will provide a common framework for coolant system design/analysis in calorimeter systems for rocket-based and air-breathing combustors, ensuring greater repeatability in calorimetry measurements across the research community.

Joseph Hernandez-McCloskey↗

Burning in Outer Space: Microgravity

A better understanding of combustion can lead to significant technological advances, such as less polluting, more fuel-efficient vehicles. Unfortunately, gravity can interfere with the study of combustion. Gravity drags down gases that are cooler- and, therefore, denser-than heated gases. This movement mixes the fuel and the oxidizer substance that promotes burning. Because of this mixing, an observer cannot necessarily distinguish what is happening as a result of the natural combustion process and what is caused, by the pull of gravity. To remove this uncertainty, scientists can conduct experiments that simulate the negation of gravity through freefall. This condition is known as a microgravity environment. A micro-gravity experiment may take place in a chamber that is dropped down a hole or from a high-speed drop tower. The experiment also be conducted in an airplane or a rocket during freefall in a parabolic flight path. This method provides less than a minute of microgravity at most. An experiment that requires the prolonged absence of gravity may necessitate the use of an orbiting spacecraft as a venue. However, access to an orbital laboratory is difficult to acquire. High-end computing centers such as the NCCS can provide a practical alternative to operating in microgravity. Scientists can model phenomena such as combustion without gravitys observational interference. The study of microgravity combustion produces important benefits beyond increased observational accuracy. Certain valuable materials that are produced through combustion can be formed with a more uniform crystal structure-and, therefore, improved structural quality-when the pull of gravity is removed. Furthermore, understanding how fires propagate in the absence of gravity can improve fire safety aboard spacecraft.

Matkowsky, Bernard↗

Creating the Test Environment for Exploration Habitats

The Crew and Thermal Systems Division’s (CTSD) 20 Foot Chamber has undergone significant modifications to support NASA’s future human exploration missions to the Moon, Mars, and beyond. Existing chamber systems such as Vacuum/Repress, Heating Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC), and Fire Suppression System (FSS), were upgraded, while new systems such as Air Revitalization and Gas Distribution were added. In addition, the chamber was outfitted with crew quarters, hygiene areas, storage, and workspaces. Teams across the Johnson Space Center (JSC) worked together to overcome the logistical and operational challenges of the planned test parameters. The ultimate goal was to create an analog testbed in which a maximum of eight human test subjects could safely live and work for at least 11 days in the same conditions (e.g., reduced pressures, oxygen concentrations, and so on) as those expected inside a base spacecraft. This would allow researchers to study the effects of such environments on humans and to validate proposed Prebreathe Protocols to enable the safe performance of surface extravehicular activities (EVAs). Over the last 18 months, the CTSD Systems Test Branch has performed six tests of varying lengths and atmospheres for both NASA and commercial partners. To date, researchers now have collected data on 48 test subjects in the course of 42 days and over 130 simulated EVAs. This paper will discuss the history of the 20 Foot Chamber, its long road to becoming an analog testbed for human exploration, and the capabilities that make it a unique, world class facility for NASA and commercial human exploration missions. It will provide an overview of past and future testing and the lessons learned along the way.

Cristina A Anchondo↗

Creating the Test Environment for Exploration Habitats

The Crew and Thermal Systems Division’s (CTSD) 20 Foot Chamber has undergone significant modifications to support NASA’s future human exploration missions to the Moon, Mars, and beyond. Existing chamber systems such as Vacuum/Repress, Heating Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC), and Fire Suppression System (FSS), were upgraded, while new systems such as Air Revitalization and Gas Distribution were added. In addition, the chamber was outfitted with crew quarters, hygiene areas, storage, and workspaces. Teams across the Johnson Space Center (JSC) worked together to overcome the logistical and operational challenges of the planned test parameters. The ultimate goal was to create an analog testbed in which a maximum of eight human test subjects could safely live and work for at least 11 days in the same conditions (e.g., reduced pressures, oxygen concentrations, and so on) as those expected inside a base spacecraft. This would allow researchers to study the effects of such environments on humans and to validate proposed Prebreathe Protocols to enable the safe performance of surface extravehicular activities (EVAs). Over the last 18 months, the CTSD Systems Test Branch has performed six tests of varying lengths and atmospheres for both NASA and commercial partners. To date, researchers now have collected data on 48 test subjects in the course of 42 days and over 130 simulated EVAs. This paper will discuss the history of the 20 Foot Chamber, its long road to becoming an analog testbed for human exploration, and the capabilities that make it a unique, world class facility for NASA and commercial human exploration missions. It will provide an overview of past and future testing and the lessons learned along the way.

Chris Briggs↗

A Streamlined Approach to Spatial Mapping of Complex 3D Thermal Boundary Condition Data

Spatial mapping of 1D, 2D, and particularly 3D thermal boundary condition data is essential for accurate thermal simulation of spacecraft and launch vehicles. This information typically is available in simple ASCII file format but can be problematic to use for thermal simulations. Difficulties that can be encountered include the ability to directly use the available file format, transformation of the data into the desired reference coordinate system in 3D space, and accurate interpolation of the data onto the thermal calculation domain. This paper presents a streamlined approach to spatial mapping of complex unsymmetrical 3D cold wall heat flux data using the fields’ capability in Simcenter3D. A recent example of 3D thermal plume simulation at MSFC will be employed to illustrate the use of text, csv, and Excel files, specifying coordinate systems for transformation of data in 3D space, and use of the various interpolation schemes available for spatial mapping. Spatial boundary condition verification is also very important, and the spacecraft thermal analyst needs effective visualization tools to develop confidence in the boundary condition definitions. Visualization of the spacecraft plume raw field data, the calculated field data, and the interpolated field data onto the thermal calculation domain will be discussed, with a particular focus on real-time viewing of the interpolated data for available interpolation schemes. The objective of this paper is to outline the modeling techniques used with the integrated thermal analysis of a terrestrial lunar lander demonstrator. Specifically, the techniques outlined herein focus on spatial mapping of convective and radiative exhaust plume results from a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis. Two cases were investigated, however, the modeling techniques that were utilized translate to both cases seamlessly. Those two cases were as follows: • Lunar lander demonstrator firing on-pad (worst case). • Lunar lander demonstrator hovering at an elevated position above the launch pad. For the purposes of information control, this paper will focus on the modeling techniques only, using altered or dimensionless data where necessary. BACKGROUND The thermal model examined in this paper is of the lunar lander demonstrator known as XL-1T (terrestrial), born from a collaborative effort between Masten Space Systems (MSS) and NASA, under NASA’s Lunar CATALYST (also known as Lunar Cargo Transportation and Landing by Soft Touchdown) initiative. The lander is a reusable vertical takeoff/vertical landing (VTVL) test bed which is controlled by four throttleable main engines utilizing green hypergolic propellants.

Hawkins, Robert F.↗

Solutions Network Formulation Report. Landsat Data Continuity Mission Simulated Data Products for Bureau of Land Management and Environmental Protection Agency Abandoned Mine Lands Decision Support

Presently, the BLM (Bureau of Land Management) has identified a multitude of abandoned mine sites in primarily Western states for cleanup. These sites are prioritized and appropriate cleanup has been called in to reclaim the sites. The task is great in needing considerable amounts of agency resources. For instance, in Colorado alone there exists an estimated 23,000 abandoned mines. The problem is not limited to Colorado or to the United States. Cooperation for reclamation is sought at local, state, and federal agency level to aid in identification, inventory, and cleanup efforts. Dangers posed by abandoned mines are recognized widely and will tend to increase with time because some of these areas are increasingly used for recreation and, in some cases, have been or are in the process of development. In some cases, mines are often vandalized once they are closed. The perpetrators leave them open, so others can then access the mines without realizing the danger posed. Abandoned mine workings often fill with water or oxygen-deficient air and dangerous gases following mining. If the workings are accidentally entered into, water or bad air can prove fatal to those underground. Moreover, mine residue drainage negatively impacts the local watershed ecology. Some of the major hazards that might be monitored by higher-resolution satellites include acid mine drainage, clogged streams, impoundments, slides, piles, embankments, hazardous equipment or facilities, surface burning, smoke from underground fires, and mine openings.

Estep, Leland↗

A conflict of water and fire: Remote sensing imagery of the Uinkaret Volcanic Field, Grand Canyon, Arizona

The sedimentary geology of the western Grand Canyon consists of gently northeast dipping sandstones, shales, and carbonates. However, due to facies changes within the units, the geomorphology varies from that seen by visitors at the National Park Headquarters. There, the cliff and slope expression of the rocks is replaced in the west by a series of mesas, ridges, and horizontal platforms. The largest of these occurs on the Esplanade Sandstone within the Supai Formation. The Esplanade is formed by slope retreat of the overlying units and resistance to erosion by the underlying limestones. It is onto this platform that the lavas of the Uinkaret Plateau were emplaced. The Uinkaret lava field lies 120 km south of St. George, Utah and is tectonically defined by two major normal faults -- the Hurricane to the west and the Toroweap to the east. The purpose of this investigation was to collect visible, near and thermal infrared data at different periods of the day and year. It is expected that these data will provide the ability to retrieve water temperatures; monitor sediment loads; map and examine any changes in the near shore vegetation communities and understand some of the intricacies of the geology. This paper will serve, to some degree, as a progress report on the Grand Canyon study, since only a fraction of the data has been received and processed thus far. Data from the Thermal Infrared Multispectral Scanner (TIMS) and the Landsat Thematic Mapper simulator (NS001) were acquired simultaneously on April 4, 1994. A second data acquisition occurred on August 27, 1994. Initial analysis of the TIMS data indicates a remarkably noise-free data set with minimal atmospheric attenuation. environments is evident.

Ramsey, Michael S.↗

Supporting Hazard Analysis for Wildfire Response Using fmdtools and MIKA

The System Wide Safety (SWS) Safety Demonstrator (SD) Series drives development of an increasingly capable In-Time Aviation Safety Management System (IASMS) focusing on humanitarian applications, starting with wildfire response (SD-1). The goals of this report are to (1) provide an early hazard analysis and mitigation evaluation of wildfire response to support these efforts and (2) provide a demonstration of capabilities of the Fault Model Design Tools (fmdtools) and Manager for Intelligent Knowledge Access (MIKA) tools. fmdtools provides a modeling, simulation, and resiliency analysis framework in which a wildfire response model, the System Modeling and Analysis of Resiliency in Scalable Traffic Management for Emergency Response Operations (SMARt-STEReO), is built. MIKA is an intelligent knowledge manager with several capabilities, including assisting in hazard analysis by extracting and analyzing hazards from historical incident reports. The following topics are covered in the report: Understanding Wildfire Hazard Dynamics. We provide a description and simulated examples of how hazards occur in the SMARt-STEReO model of wildfire response and their effect on its outcome. This provides a common mental model and focuses the analysis presented in the remainder of the report. Wildfire Hazard Identification. MIKA identifies wildfire hazards from three relevant datasets: the ICS-209-PLUS, SAFECOM, and SAFENET. Hazards are manually organized into a taxonomy and MIKA analyzes each hazard’s effects, likelihood, severity, and risk. Evaluating Mitigation Strategies. The SMARt-STEReO wildfire response model built in fmdtools evaluates a subset of identified hazards. Specifically, we simulate the effect of communications faults and equipment faults on operator safety, the effect of changing winds and flammability, and a scenario with multiple ignition points and heavy smoke. Tool Limitations and Usage Considerations. We provide a discussion of appropriate tool use cases as well as limitations and considerations for usage. The tool findings are used to synthesize recommendations for wildfire response operations, which can be captured as part of an IASMS. Key recommendations are as follows: Hazards are identified from a broad spectrum of sources including aircraft subsystems, operational sources, and ground crew operations. Highest risk operational environment hazards identified are Evacuations. The highest risk manned aerial operations hazard categorized is Jumper Operations Mishap. Ground crew hazards that are highest risk are Burns, Cargo Operations Overhead, Dehydration, Entrapment, Falling Objects, Heart Attacks, Heat Exhaustion, Inadequate Training or Certification, Vehicle Breakdown, and Vehicle Collision. Modelled containment failures arise from a mismatch between the difficulty of the firefighting scenario and the capacity (e.g., speed, effectiveness, awareness) of the response. In firefighting scenarios where containment is possible (e.g., because the fire does not spread too quickly), these mismatches can occur because of a change in environmental conditions (e.g., wind, flammability, etc) or because of planning, equipment, or communications faults. Improvements to communications increase the capacity of the firefighting response by reducing the time needed to respond to the fire. While surveillance does not increase this capacity by itself, it increases operator safety by increasing state awareness, enabling firefighters to evade approaching fires. Increasing both has a synergistic effect. In general, these performance and resilience increases generalize over fault scenarios as well as unforeseen changes to circumstances (i.e., wind, aridity, etc.). However, these improvements need to be designed so as not to make the system prone to persistent large-scale communications outages, which can reduce performance.

Hazard analysis↗

Ponderosa pine hydraulic stress predicts more extreme wildfire behavior under future conditions in Bandelier National Monument, New Mexico

Background Live fuel moisture contributes to wildfire spread and reflects plant stress and physiological traits. The anticipated change in live fuel moisture under future conditions is likely non-linear, owing to physiological plant thresholds in water hydraulics. We constructed a mechanistic model of live fuel moisture’s response to water stress to understand the impact of future climate on live fuel moisture. We first gathered data on plant physiology and live fuel moisture for Pinus ponderosa at Bandelier National Monument, NM, USA, and modeled their relationship. We then parameterized a mechanistic plant hydrodynamics model (FATES-HYDRO) to simulate changes in plant stress and a statistical model to simulate the resulting impact on live fuel moisture. We then simulated FATES-HYDRO under future climate anomalies (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5: 2080–2100) to understand the change in plant stress and estimate its impact on live fuel moisture. Results We found that the number of days below crucial thresholds of live fuel moisture (100% and 79%) increased from contemporary levels (< 100%: 72 days, < 79%: 1.4 days) under SSP2-4.5 (< 100%: 185 days, < 79%: 10.2 day) and increased exponentially under SSP5-8.5 (< 100%: 215 days, < 79%: 65 days). We found that gross primary productivity decreased under both future climate scenarios (contemporary: 336 g C m −2 , SSP2-4.5: 203 g C m −2 , SSP5-8.5: 243 g C m −2 ); however, spring productivity increased under SSP5-8.5, potentially altering fuel loading. We additionally see a potentially lethal loss of conductivity in hydraulic P. ponderosa under SSP5-8.5. Conclusions The overall increase in plant water stress (as represented by loss of hydraulic conductivity and leaf water potential) and lower live fuel moisture appear to be driven by reduced precipitation during late summer monsoons typical of the region, extending the fire season later in the year. We predict increasing variability in the P. ponderosa wildfire regime under both climate projections driven by changing productivity, rising mortality, and an overall decrease in live fuel moisture.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Editorial: Particulate Matter Emissions From Conventional and Reformulated Fuel Combustion: Advances in Experiments and Simulations

Particulate matter (PM or soot) emissions generated by combustion of conventional and reformulated fuels adversely impact the environment and human health (Bond et al., 2013; Landrigan et al., 2018; World Health Organization (WHO), 2016), generating public awareness and motivating efforts towards the mitigation of their harmful effects. Soot formation is one of the most complex phenomena in combustion, involving interactions between combustion chemistry, fluid mechanics, mass/heat transport, and particle dynamics, spanning different spatial and temporal scales. A fundamental understanding of soot formation process is thus necessary to achieve a strong reduction of PM emissions and design cleaner and more efficient combustion systems. This has motivated a longstanding and ongoing research activity aimed at improving our understanding of the physical and chemical processes involved in soot formation, well reviewed in these recent works (Wang and Chung, 2019; Michelsen et al., 2020; Martin et al., 2022). Despite the wide interest, the transition from gas-phase molecules to incipient soot particles is still elusive and the successive particle growth and oxidation processes are far from being fully understood, especially in conditions relevant to real-world applications. Recent advances in combustion PM emission diagnostic and computational capabilities helped in improving the predictability of fundamental chemical and aerosol models for practical applications, thus tackling some of the above-mentioned challenges. The aim of this research topic is to display the ongoing research efforts in addressing the existing gaps on particulate formation from various fuel sources and in conditions typical of practical combustion applications (e.g. flames, engines, pool fires), through both experimental and numerical approaches.

42 ENGINEERING↗

The Effect of Acoustic Disturbances on the Operation of the Space Shuttle Main Engine Fuel Flowmeter

The Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) uses a turbine fuel flowmeter (FFM) in its Low Pressure Fuel Duct (LPFD) to measure liquid hydrogen flowrates during engine operation. The flowmeter is required to provide accurate and robust measurements of flow rates ranging from 10000 to 18000 GPM in an environment contaminated by duct vibration and duct internal acoustic disturbances. Errors exceeding 0.5% can have a significant impact on engine operation and mission completion. The accuracy of each sensor is monitored during hot-fire engine tests on the ground. Flow meters which do not meet requirements are not flown. Among other parameters, the device is screened for a specific behavior in which a small shift in the flow rate reading is registered during a period in which the actual fuel flow as measured by a facility meter does not change. Such behavior has been observed over the years for specific builds of the FFM and must be avoided or limited in magnitude in flight. Various analyses of the recorded data have been made prior to this report in an effort to understand the cause of the phenomenon; however, no conclusive cause for the shift in the instrument behavior has been found. The present report proposes an explanation of the phenomenon based on interactions between acoustic pressure disturbances in the duct and the wakes produced by the FFM flow straightener. Physical insight into the effects of acoustic plane wave disturbances was obtained using a simple analytical model. Based on that model, a series of three-dimensional unsteady viscous flow computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations were performed using the MSFC PHANTOM turbomachinery code. The code was customized to allow the FFM rotor speed to change at every time step according to the instantaneous fluid forces on the rotor, that, in turn, are affected by acoustic plane pressure waves propagating through the device. The results of the simulations show the variation in the rotation rate of the flowmeter due to the interaction of the flow straightener wakes and the upstream propagating acoustic waves. A detailed analysis of the acoustic disturbance effects is presented along with an assessment of the impact on measurement accuracy.

Marcu, Bogdan↗

Qualification Motor no. 8 (QM-8), volume 1

All inspection and instrumentation data indicate that the QM-8 static test firing conducted 20 January 1989 was successful. Ambient temperature at T-0 was 28 F. With two flights successfully accomplished, this final test in the redesigned solid rocket motor (RSRM) program certified that the design meets motor performance requirements under extreme cold conditions. This test was a prerequisite to the third flight. The entire test article was cold conditioned at 20 to 25 F for approximately 31 days to assure a maximum propellant mean bulk temperature (PMBT) of 40 F, making it the lowest PMBT in the history of the program. This extreme condition also presented the opportunity to certify critical components at low temperatures. Certification of field joint and igniter heaters, adhesive bondline integrity, flex bearing performance, flight instrumentation performance, RSRM seal performance, and LSC and nozzle plug performance was accomplished. Prior to motor ignition, the field joints were maintained between 75 to 130 F, the igniter-to-case joint was maintained between 75 to 123 F, and the case-to-nozzle joint was maintained between 75 to 120 F. QM-8 was tested with induced side loads to simulate the strut loads experienced during ignition and maximum aerodynamic loading conditions. The ability of the safe and arm device to change position from safe-to-arm and arm-to-safe was certified. Ballistics performance was certified at the lower limits. Values were within specification requirements. Nozzle performance was nominal with typical erosion. The use of Fiberite carbon-cloth phenolic was certified. The water deluge system, CO2 quench, and other test equipment performed as planned during all required test operations.

Garecht, D. M.↗