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DOE OSTI2014

Formulation and Analysis of Compliant Grouted Waste Forms for SHINE Waste Streams

Optional grouted waste forms were formulated for waste streams generated during the production of 99Mo to be compliant with low-level radioactive waste regulations. The amounts and dose rates of the various waste form materials that would be generated annually were estimated and used to determine the effects of various waste processing options, such as the of number irradiation cycles between uranium recovery operations, different combinations of waste streams, and removal of Pu, Cs, and Sr from waste streams for separate disposition (which is not evaluated in this report). These calculations indicate that Class C-compliant grouted waste forms can be produced for all waste streams. More frequent uranium recovery results in the generation of more chemical waste, but this is balanced by the fact that waste forms for those waste streams can accommodate higher waste loadings, such that similar amounts of grouted waste forms are required regardless of the recovery schedule. Similar amounts of grouted waste form are likewise needed for the individual and combined waste streams. Removing Pu, Cs, and Sr from waste streams lowers the waste form dose significantly at times beyond about 1 year after irradiation, which may benefit handling and transport. Although these calculations should be revised after experimentally optimizing the grout formulations and waste loadings, they provide initial guidance for process development.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2015

Identifying and Mitigating Potential Nutrient and Sediment Hot Spots under a Future Scenario in the Missouri River Basin

Using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for large-scale watershed modeling could be useful for evaluating the quality of the water in regions that are dominated by nonpoint sources in order to identify potential “hot spots” for which mitigating strategies could be further developed. An analysis of water quality under future scenarios in which changes in land use would be made to accommodate increased biofuel production was developed for the Missouri River Basin (MoRB) based on a SWAT model application. The analysis covered major agricultural crops and biofuel feedstock in the MoRB, including pasture land, hay, corn, soybeans, wheat, and switchgrass. The analysis examined, at multiple temporal and spatial scales, how nitrate, organic nitrogen, and total nitrogen; phosphorus, organic phosphorus, inorganic phosphorus, and total phosphorus; suspended sediments; and water flow (water yield) would respond to the shifts in land use that would occur under proposed future scenarios. The analysis was conducted at three geospatial scales: (1) large tributary basin scale (two: Upper MoRB and Lower MoRB); (2) regional watershed scale (seven: Upper Missouri River, Middle Missouri River, Middle Lower Missouri River, Lower Missouri River, Yellowstone River, Platte River, and Kansas River); and (3) eight-digit hydrologic unit (HUC-8) subbasin scale (307 subbasins). Results showed that subbasin-level variations were substantial. Nitrogen loadings decreased across the entire Upper MoRB, and they increased in several subbasins in the Lower MoRB. Most nitrate reductions occurred in lateral flow. Also at the subbasin level, phosphorus in organic, sediment, and soluble forms was reduced by 35%, 45%, and 65%, respectively. Suspended sediments increased in 68% of the subbasins. The water yield decreased in 62% of the subbasins. In the Kansas River watershed, the water quality improved significantly with regard to every nitrogen and phosphorus compound. The improvement was clearly attributable to the conversion of a large amount of land to switchgrass. The Middle Lower Missouri River and Lower Missouri River were identified as hot regions. Further analysis identified four subbasins (10240002, 10230007, 10290402, and 10300200) as being the most vulnerable in terms of sediment, nitrogen, and phosphorus loadings. Overall, results suggest that increasing the amount of switchgrass acreage in the hot spots should be considered to mitigate the nutrient loads. The study provides an analytical method to support stakeholders in making informed decisions that balance biofuel production and water sustainability.

land use change↗

DOE OSTI2016

Intra-Hour Dispatch and Automatic Generator Control Demonstration with Solar Forecasting - Final Report

In this project we address multiple resource integration challenges associated with increasing levels of solar penetration that arise from the variability and uncertainty in solar irradiance. We will model the SMUD service region as its own balancing region, and develop an integrated, real-time operational tool that takes solar-load forecast uncertainties into consideration and commits optimal energy resources and reserves for intra-hour and intra-day decisions. The primary objectives of this effort are to reduce power system operation cost by committing appropriate amount of energy resources and reserves, as well as to provide operators a prediction of the generation fleet’s behavior in real time for realistic PV penetration scenarios. The proposed methodology includes the following steps: clustering analysis on the expected solar variability per region for the SMUD system, Day-ahead (DA) and real-time (RT) load forecasts for the entire service areas, 1-year of intra-hour CPR forecasts for cluster centers, 1-year of smart re-forecasting CPR forecasts in real-time for determination of irreducible errors, and uncertainty quantification for integrated solar-load for both distributed and central stations (selected locations within service region) PV generation.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2015

Potential energy savings with exterior shades in large office buildings and the impact of discomfort glare

Exterior shades are highly efficient for reducing solar load in commercial buildings. Their impact on net energy use depends on the annual energy balance of heating, cooling, fan and lighting energy. This paper discusses the overall energy use intensity of various external shading systems for a prototypical large office building split into the different types of energy use and for different orientations and window sizes. Lighting energy was calculated for a constant lighting power as well as for dimmed lighting fixtures (daylighting control). In Section 3, slat angles and solar cut-off angles were varied for fixed exterior slat shading systems. While the most light-blocking shades performed best for the case without daylighting controls, the optimum cut-off angle with daylighting controls was found to be 30 deg for the office building prototype used in Chicago and Houston. For large window-to-wall (WWR) ratios, window related annual energy use could be reduced by at least 70 % without daylighting control and by a minimum of 86 % with daylighting control in average over all orientations. The occurrence of discomfort glare was is considered in Section 4 of the paper, which looks at the performance of commercially available exterior shading systems when an interior shade is used in addition to the exterior shade during hours when occupants would experience discomfort glare. Glare control impacts overall energy use intensity significantly for exterior shades with high transmittance, especially when daylighting controls are used. In these cases, exterior shades are only beneficial for window-to-wall areas ≥ 45% in the hot Houston climate. For smaller windows and in a heating/cooling climate like Chicago, exterior shades can increase energy consumption

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2017

Development of FAST.Farm: A New Multiphysics Engineering Tool for Wind-Farm Design and Analysis

This paper presents the development of FAST.Farm, a new multiphysics tool applicable to engineering problems in research and industry involving wind farm performance and cost optimization that is needed to address the current underperformance, failures, and expenses plaguing the wind industry. Achieving wind cost-of-energy targets - which requires improvements in wind farm performance and reliability, together with reduced uncertainty and expenditures - has been eluded by the complicated nature of the wind farm design problem, especially the sophisticated interaction between atmospheric phenomena and wake dynamics and array effects. FAST.Farm aims to balance the need for accurate modeling of the relevant physics for predicting power performance and loads while maintaining low computational cost to support a highly iterative and probabilistic design process and system-wide optimization. FAST.Farm makes use of FAST to model the aero-hydro-servo-elastics of distinct turbines in the wind farm, and it is based on some of the principles of the Dynamic Wake Meandering (DWM) model, but avoids many of the limitations of existing DWM implementations.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1977

The vehicle design evaluation program - A computer-aided design procedure for transport aircraft

The vehicle design evaluation program is described. This program is a computer-aided design procedure that provides a vehicle synthesis capability for vehicle sizing, external load analysis, structural analysis, and cost evaluation. The vehicle sizing subprogram provides geometry, weight, and balance data for aircraft using JP, hydrogen, or methane fuels. The structural synthesis subprogram uses a multistation analysis for aerodynamic surfaces and fuselages to develop theoretical weights and geometric dimensions. The parts definition subprogram uses the geometric data from the structural analysis and develops the predicted fabrication dimensions, parts material raw stock buy requirements, and predicted actual weights. The cost analysis subprogram uses detail part data in conjunction with standard hours, realization factors, labor rates, and material data to develop the manufacturing costs. The program is used to evaluate overall design effects on subsonic commercial type aircraft due to parameter variations.

Oman, B. H.↗

DOE OSTI2017

Development of FAST.Farm: A New Multiphysics Engineering Tool for Wind Farm Design and Analysis: Preprint

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Provision of Grid Services by PV Plants with Integrated Battery Energy Storage System: Preprint

Battery energy storage systems (BESS), due to their tremendous range of uses and configurations, may assist PV integration in any number of ways by increasing power system flexibility. In this paper we describe results of a research project conducted by NREL and First Solar for developing controls and demonstrating many use cases for PV-BESS systems including (1) matching generation to loads through time shifting, reducing PV curtailment,; (2) promoting higher levels of PV penetrations by balancing the grid through ancillary services; (3) use of PV-BESS systems to provide wide-area stability services in the form of oscillations damping controls; and (r) use of gird forming BESS for enabling black start and islanded applications for PV-BESS systems. In the paper we will also describe the unique multi-MW test and validation platform developed at NREL for conducting research on fielded utility-scale PV-BESS systems. The platform consists of First Solar 0.43 MW PV power plant, NREL’s 1MW/1MW BESS, 2MW PV power supplies and 7MVA power electronic grid simulator interfaced with industrial plant controllers and power-hardware-in-the-loop (PHIL) capability.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗

DOE OSTI2025

A cross-dimensional analysis of data-driven short-term load forecasting methods with large-scale smart meter data

Electricity load forecasting is essential to utility operation and power grid stability. A wide spectrum of data-driven methods, ranging from linear regression models to more recent deep learning models have been adopted to forecast electric load over the years. However, there still lacks a holistic evaluation of the applicability of conventional statistical and machine learning based algorithms with respect to different temporal and spatial scopes, computational requirements, and sensitivity of model-tuning. Enabled by a large-scale electricity load profile dataset of over 40,000 residential customers in a utility region, we conducted a cross-dimensional analysis of data-driven load forecasting methods. Three regression-based and seven deep learning algorithms with different model configurations were evaluated in terms of their overall and peak load prediction accuracy, and training burdens, across spatial aggregation levels ranging from the transformer, feeder, substation, to neighborhood. We found, first, the load forecasting accuracy is constrained by a predictability boundary, influenced by the forecasting horizon and spatial aggregation level. Specifically, RandomForest, XGBoost, TFT, TSMixer, and TiDE models achieved less than 10 % prediction error for up to 96-h ahead forecasting for district, substation, and feeder levels, while other models struggle at long-horizon predictions; Second, for winter and summer peak load dates, most models were able to predict the peak demand timing within ± 1 h, but the prediction percentage error varied by models, with TFT and TiDE models being the top performers; Third, models with similar prediction accuracy can differ in training burden by an order of magnitude. Therefore, choosing model configurations that balance prediction performance and computational resource is an important practical consideration for large-scale deployment of the machine learning based load forecasting. The outcome of this study can guide researchers and practitioners to choose the proper load forecasting algorithms based on their problem scope, required accuracy, and available resources. The predictability boundary can serve as a benchmark for electricity load forecasting problems with new algorithms and datasets.

Li, Han↗

DOE OSTI2023

Modeling a Gas-Cooled Microreactor Balance of Plant for the Virtual Test Bed

High Temperature Gas-cooled Reactors (HTGRs) are one of the technology considered for microreactor designs because of their high performance and technological maturity. Several designs are being developed. These microreactor cores are connected to power conversion system (PCS) through a heat exchanger. For transient analysis, the feedback of the PCS or of the primary loop can be important, therefore, it is necessary to develop robust models for the balance of plant that can be coupled to a core model. In this work, a balance of plant model using the MOOSE Thermal Hydraulics module (THM) is presented and demonstrated for startup and load-follow transients. This model can be seamlessly coupled with any MOOSE-based multi-physics core model using the MOOSE multi-app approach.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

NASA NTRS2019

Aerodynamic Characterization and Improved Testing Methods for the Space Launch System Liftoff and Transition Environment

Low-speed wind tunnel testing for the liftoff and transition environment of the Space Launch System (SLS) was recently completed in the NASA Langley Research Center 14- by 22-Foot Subsonic Tunnel using 1.75%-scale models of three SLS vehicle configurations. During the liftoff testing, the primary objective was to evaluate the aerodynamic forces and moments on the SLS launch vehicles, as the vehicle, launch tower, and mobile launch platform were subjected to ground winds from all directions at varying heights for the vehicle off the launch pad. Additionally, aerodynamic forces and moments were acquired for all three SLS vehicles during the transition phase from liftoff to ascent that covered a wide range of angles of attack and angles of side slip. Details of the experimental setup including improved testing methods and a stiffer sting-balance system based on lessons learned from previous test entries are presented. Also, a new force measurement technique was applied during the test where two subminiature six-component load cells were installed in each Solid Rocket Booster (SRB) to acquire forces and moments for each SRB separately from the full vehicle forces and moments measured by the main strain gauge balance. Finally, sample results from the experiment are presented including improved overall data coverage, evaluation of the new SRB data, and smoke flow visualization photos.

Chan, David T.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Sensitivity analysis of numerical modeling input parameters on floating offshore wind turbine loads in extreme idling conditions

Abstract. Floating offshore wind turbine (FOWT) systems are subject to complex environmental loads, with significant potential for damage in extreme storm conditions. Design simulations in these conditions are required to assess the survivability of the device with some level of confidence. Aero-hydro-servo-elastic engineering tools can be used with a reasonable balance of accuracy and computational efficiency. The models require many input parameters to describe the air and water conditions, the system properties, and the load calculations. Each of these parameters has some possible range, due to either statistical uncertainty or variations with time. Variation in the input parameters can have important effects on the uncertainty in the resulting loads, but it is not practical to perform detailed assessments of the impact of this uncertainty for every input parameter. This work demonstrates a method to identify the input parameters that have the most impact on the loads to focus further inspection. The process is done specifically for extreme storm load cases defined in the International Electrotechnical Commission design requirements for floating offshore wind turbines. The analysis was performed using the International Energy Agency Wind 15 MW offshore reference wind turbine atop the University of Maine VolturnUS-S reference platform in two US offshore wind regions, the Gulf of Maine and Humboldt Bay. It was found that the direction of incident waves and current, yaw misalignment, and the length of mooring line sections were among the primary sensitivities.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Multiphysics Modeling of Microreactors with NEAMS codes, and Validation Based on KRUSTY Reactivity Insertion

The NEAMS Multiphysics Applications team continues to assess code usability and functionality for microreactor design and safety analyses, while demonstrating that NEAMS tools capture both steady-state and transient behavior across distinct microreactor concepts. In FY2025, the team advanced full-core, high-fidelity, multiphysics models that solve more complex problems and strengthen verification/validation for several microreactor systems: heat-pipe microreactor (HPMR), gas-cooled microreactor (GCMR), and the KRUSTY experiment. These models employ the MOOSE MultiApp/Transfers architecture with Griffin for neutronics, BISON for heat conduction/thermomechanics, Sockeye for heat pipes, SAM/THM for coolant channels and loops, and SWIFT for hydride behavior, with meshes generated via the MOOSE Reactor Module. The graphite models available in the Grizzly code were also investigated for future analyses. For the HPMR, a Na-HPMR variant was constructed to align with recently validated heat-pipe experiments and Sockeye’s LCVF capability, enabling mechanistic heat-pipe transients and startup modeling. The Na-HPMR will serve as the primary model for HPMR investigations in upcoming tasks. The load-following and single heat-pipe failure scenarios (Griffin/BISON/Sockeye), which were previously modeled for the K-HPMR, were replicated for the Na-HPMR, showing strong negative temperature feedback and highly localized thermal effects, respectively, while the startup case captured vapor-front progression and heat-removal activation. Solid mechanics was added to the previously built K-HPMR full-core model in BISON, showing minimal impact on steady-state reactivity yet enabling stress-field predictions that prepare the path for full-core TRISO performance analyses. For the GCMR, automated steady-state and four transient scenarios were executed using Griffin/BISON/SAM/SWIFT. Results confirm robust inherent safety: power collapses promptly in loss-of-cooling events, the inlet-temperature drop settles to a new equilibrium, and a single-channel blockage yields only a ~30 K local fuel-temperature rise with <0.4% power decrease. SWIFT-predicted hydrogen redistribution affects reactivity during both steady-state and transient conditions, underscoring its importance. A Brayton-cycle balance of plant (BOP) model in SAM/THM demonstrated stable startup behavior, and xenon-driven reactivity during load following was analyzed. To improve TRISO-compact temperature fidelity, a fast multiscale Heat Source Decomposition (HSD) treatment was implemented. Against heterogeneous benchmarks, HSD reduces underprediction of kernel temperatures and lowers predicted peak powers in reactivity-insertion transients compared to previous homogenized models. KRUSTY warm-critical validation progressed from FY2024 baselines: the 15Ȼ insertion shows excellent agreement in peak power (~2% high) and temperature trends, and the 30Ȼ case was automated via a feedback controller that maintained power near 3 kW for ~150 s with close agreement to data. The successful modeling of the warm critical tests has laid a strong foundation for simulating more complex nuclear system tests in the years ahead. Throughout FY2025, developer feedback was provided (e.g., MOOSE batch mesh generation, distributed pre-split meshes, Griffin sweeper on displaced meshes), several new models were contributed to the Virtual Test Bed, and an OECD-NEA WPRS multiphysics benchmark based on the HPMR was initiated to enable broader cross-comparison and best-practice development with the nuclear community at large.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

NASA NTRS2010

Orion Flight Performance Design Trades

A significant portion of the Orion pre-PDR design effort has focused on balancing mass with performance. High level performance metrics include abort success rates, lunar surface coverage, landing accuracy and touchdown loads. These metrics may be converted to parameters that affect mass, such as ballast for stabilizing the abort vehicle, propellant to achieve increased lunar coverage or extended missions, or ballast to increase the lift-to-drag ratio to improve entry and landing performance. The Orion Flight Dynamics team was tasked to perform analyses to evaluate many of these trades. These analyses not only provide insight into the physics of each particular trade but, in aggregate, they illustrate the processes used by Orion to balance performance and mass margins, and thereby make design decisions. Lessons learned can be gleaned from a review of these studies which will be useful to other spacecraft system designers. These lessons fall into several categories, including: appropriate application of Monte Carlo analysis in design trades, managing margin in a highly mass-constrained environment, and the use of requirements to balance margin between subsystems and components. This paper provides a review of some of the trades and analyses conducted by the Flight Dynamics team, as well as systems engineering lessons learned.

Jackson, Mark C.↗

DOE OSTI2019

An improved understanding of the roles of atomic processes and power balance in divertor target ion current loss during detachment

The process of divertor detachment, whereby heat and particle fluxes to divertor surfaces are strongly diminished, is required to reduce heat loading and erosion in a magnetic fusion reactor to acceptable levels. In this paper, the physics leading to the decrease of the total divertor ion current ($I_t$), or ‘roll-over’, is experimentally explored on the TCV tokamak through characterization of the location, magnitude and role of the various divertor ion sinks and sources including a complete analysis of particle and power balance. These first measurements of the profiles of divertor ionisation and hydrogenic radiation along the divertor leg are enabled through novel spectroscopic techniques. Over a range in TCV plasma conditions (plasma current and electron density, with/ without impurity-seeding) the $I_t$ roll-over is ascribed to a drop in the divertor ion source; recombination remains small or negligible farther into the detachment process. Further, the ion source reduction is driven by both a reduction in the power available for ionization, $P_{\text{recl}}$, and concurrent increase in the energy required per ionisation, $E_{\text{ion}}$: this effect of power available on the ionization source is often described as ‘power starvation’ (or ‘power limitation’). The detachment threshold is found experimentally (in agreement with analytic model predictions) to be ~$P_{\text{recl}}/I_tE_{\text{ion}}$ ~ 2, corresponding to a target electron temperature, $T_t ~ E_{\text{ion}}/γ$ where $\gamma$ is the sheath transmission coefficient. The target pressure reduction, required to reduce the target ion current, is driven both by volumetric momentum loss as well as upstream pressure loss. The measured evolution through detachment of the divertor profile of various ion sources/ sinks as well as power losses are quantitatively reproduced through full 2D SOLPS modelling through the detachment process as the upstream density is varied.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Integrated Transportation-Energy Systems Modeling

Transportation is currently the least-diversified energy demand sector, with over 90% of global transportation energy use coming from petroleum product. After over a century of petroleum dominance, however, many leading experts anticipate major electrification trends that could disrupt the transportation energy demand landscape. These changes in electricity demand complement profound changes happening within electric power supply systems, including integration of variable renewables, distributed generation and storage, and greater participation in power system planning and operations from traditionally passive consumers. This broader context underscores the importance of understanding how transportation electrification will impact electricity demand, including changes in the load shapes that characterize the system and the opportunity to leverage flexible EV charging to more cost-effectively balance demand and supply. This talk provides an overview of recent findings on infrastructure requirements to support EV adoption, integration challenges and the impact of EV on power systems, and opportunities to leverage flexible (or smart) EV charging to support power system planning and operations.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗

DOE OSTI2020

Sequence-to-sequence neural networks for short-term electrical load forecasting in commercial office buildings

The U.S. power grid is transforming to become smarter, cleaner, and more effi- cient. This is leading to the addition of significant distributed variable renew- able generation. Due to the variable nature of renewable generation, the short- and long-term supply-demand imbalances are less predictable, and conventional approaches to mitigating the imbalance will not be efficient or cost-effective. To address this challenge, transactive control technologies have been proposed which balance energy generation and consumption with market activity and in- frastructural limitations. Transactive control requires the ability of individual end-use loads to express flexibility as a function of a transactive signal (e.g., price). Empirical gray- and black-box models have been widely used to express flexibility, and although these approaches are generally easy to construct and simple to use, they do not capture the non-linear behavior that some end-use loads represent . Machine learning approaches have been proposed to address this limitation. Although deep learning approaches for forecasting end-use loads have been explored, certain aspects of the application of deep models to load forecasting are not well understood. These aspects include how much training data is required, and how models should be structured and trained. To that end, this work explores how to approach applying deep recurrent neural networks to short-term electrical load forecasting with a case study of four commercial office buildings. We identify data requirements for training accurate models of whole building electricity use conditioned on outdoor temperature, provide insight into model hyperparameter sensitivity, and demonstrate how readily models can be generalized to unseen buildings.

Skomski, Elliott↗

DOE OSTI2025

Business Models for Scaling Demand Flexibility Volume III – Stakeholder ecosystem management challenges, and lessons learned from U.S. programs

Load growth at the grid edge is driving increased attention to the distribution system and its ability to enable customer technology adoption in an affordable and timely manner. Key industry stakeholders, including electric utilities and regulators, can benefit from strategies to manage and balance customer needs with infrastructure investments, such as demand flexibility. This report focuses on demand flexibility—the ability to reduce, shift, shed, generate, or modulate loads in response to building and grid needs—to reduce the need for costly grid upgrades by deferring investment needs and increase system reliability by shifting electricity usage during periods of high risk. Specifically, we focus on the emerging characteristics of business models for demand flexibility as a framework to understand how demand flexibility programs generate value. In this report, we focus on demand flexibility program stakeholder ecosystem management strategies, which provide information on value delivery and describe how program implementers leverage partner capabilities and collaborate to deliver customer and grid benefits. This report discusses the role of stakeholder ecosystem management in demand flexibility programs, identifies existing challenges to effective stakeholder management, and describes lessons learned. This report is part of a series that includes reports on value propositions, customer relationship management strategies, and program life cycle.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗