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At least 1,315 records · Page 73

Changing Snow Cover and Stream Discharge in the Western United States - Wind River Range, Wyoming

Earlier onset of springtime weather has been documented in the western United States over at least the last 50 years. Because the majority (>70%) of the water supply in the western U.S. comes from snowmelt, analysis of the declining spring snowpack has important implications for the management of water resources. We studied ten years of Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) snow-cover products, 40 years of stream discharge and meteorological station data and 30 years of snow-water equivalent (SWE) SNOw Telemetry (SNOTEL) data in the Wind River Range (WRR), Wyoming. Results show increasing air temperatures for.the 40-year study period. Discharge from streams in WRR drainage basins show lower annual discharge and earlier snowmelt in the decade of the 2000s than in the previous three decades. Changes in streamflow may be related to increasing air temperatures which are probably contributing to a reduction in snow cover, although no trend of either increasingly lower streamflow or earlier snowmelt was observed within the decade of the 2000s. And SWE on 1 April does not show an expected downward trend from 1980 to 2009. The extent of snow cover derived from the lowest-elevation zone of the WRR study area is strongly correlated (r=0.91) with stream discharge on 1 May during the decade of the 2000s. The strong relationship between snow cover and streamflow indicates that MODIS snow-cover maps can be used to improve management of water resources in the drought-prone western U.S.

Hall, Dorothy K.↗

Anvil Forecast Tool in the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS)

Launch Weather Officers (LWOs) from the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) and forecasters from the National Weather Service (NWS) Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) have identified anvil forecasting as one of their most challenging tasks when predicting the probability of violating the Lightning Launch Commit Criteria (LLCC) (Krider et al. 2006; Space Shuttle Flight Rules (FR), NASA/JSC 2004)). As a result, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) developed a tool that creates an anvil threat corridor graphic that can be overlaid on satellite imagery using the Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS, Short and Wheeler, 2002). The tool helps forecasters estimate the locations of thunderstorm anvils at one, two, and three hours into the future. It has been used extensively in launch and landing operations by both the 45 WS and SMG. The Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) is now used along with MIDDS for weather analysis and display at SMG. In Phase I of this task, SMG tasked the AMU to transition the tool from MIDDS to AWIPS (Barrett et aI., 2007). For Phase II, SMG requested the AMU make the Anvil Forecast Tool in AWIPS more configurable by creating the capability to read model gridded data from user-defined model files instead of hard-coded files. An NWS local AWIPS application called AGRID was used to accomplish this. In addition, SMG needed to be able to define the pressure levels for the model data, instead of hard-coding the bottom level as 300 mb and the top level as 150 mb. This paper describes the initial development of the Anvil Forecast Tool for MIDDS, followed by the migration of the tool to AWIPS in Phase I. It then gives a detailed presentation of the Phase II improvements to the AWIPS tool.

Barrett, Joe H., III↗

Top-of-the-Atmosphere Shortwave Flux Estimation from UV Observations: An Empirical Approach

Measurements of top of the atmosphere (TOA) radiation are essential to the understanding of Earth's climate. Clouds, aerosols, and ozone (0,) are among the most important agents impacting the Earth's short-wave (SW) radiation budget. There are several sensors in orbit that provide independent information related to the Earth's SW radiation budget. Having coincident information from these sensors is important for understanding their potential contributions. The A-train constellation of satellites provides a unique opportunity to analyze near-simultaneous data from several of these sensors. They include the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), on the NASA Aura satellite, that makes TOA hyper-spectral measurements from ultraviolet (UV) to visible wavelengths, and Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) instrument, on the NASA Aqua satellite, that makes broadband measurements in both the long- and short-wave. OMI measurements have been successfully utilized to derive the information on trace gases (e.g., 0 1, NO" and SO,), clouds, and absorbing aerosols. TOA SW fluxes are estimated using a combination of data from CERES and the Aqua MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). In this paper, OMI retrievals of cloud/aerosol parameters and 0 1 have been collocated with CERES TOA SW flux retrievals. We use this collocated data to develop a neural network that estimates TOA shortwave flux globally over ocean using data from OMI and meteorological analyses. This input data include the effective cloud fraction, cloud optical centroid pressure (OCP), total-column 0" and sun-satellite viewing geometry from OMI as well as wind speed and water vapor from the Goddard Earth Observing System 5 Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (GEOS-5 MERRA) along with a climatology of chlorophyll content. We train the neural network using a subset of CERES retrievals of TOA SW flux as the target output (truth) and withhold a different subset of the CERES data to be used for validation.

Gupta, P.↗

Anvil Forecast Tool in the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System

Meteorologists from the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) and National Weather Service Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) have identified anvil forecasting as one of their most challenging tasks when predicting the probability of violations of the Lightning Launch Commit Criteria and Space Shuttle Flight Rules. As a result, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) was tasked to create a graphical overlay tool for the Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS) that indicates the threat of thunderstorm anvil clouds, using either observed or model forecast winds as input. The tool creates a graphic depicting the potential location of thunderstorm anvils one, two, and three hours into the future. The locations are based on the average of the upper level observed or forecasted winds. The graphic includes 10 and 20 n mi standoff circles centered at the location of interest, as well as one-, two-, and three-hour arcs in the upwind direction. The arcs extend outward across a 30 sector width based on a previous AMU study that determined thunderstorm anvils move in a direction plus or minus 15 of the upper-level wind direction. The AMU was then tasked to transition the tool to the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS). SMG later requested the tool be updated to provide more flexibility and quicker access to model data. This presentation describes the work performed by the AMU to transition the tool into AWIPS, as well as the subsequent improvements made to the tool.

Barrett, Joe H., III↗

Severe Weather Tool using 1500 UTC Cape Canaveral Air Force Station Soundings

People and property at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) are at risk when severe weather occurs. Strong winds, hail and tornadoes can injure individuals and cause costly damage to structures if not properly protected. NASA's Launch Services Program and Ground Systems Development and Operations Program and other KSC programs use the daily and weekly severe weather forecasts issued by the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) to determine if they need to limit an activity such as working on gantries, or protect property such as a vehicle on a pad. The 45 WS requested the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) develop a warm season (May-September) severe weather tool for use in the Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS) based on the late morning, 1500 UTC (1100 local time), CCAFS (XMR) sounding. The 45 WS frequently makes decisions to issue a severe weather watch and other severe weather warning support products to NASA and the 45th Space Wing in the late morning, after the 1500 UTC sounding. The results of this work indicate that certain stability indices based on the late morning XMR soundings can depict differences between days with reported severe weather and days with no reported severe weather. The AMU determined a frequency of reported severe weather for the stability indices and implemented an operational tool in MIDDS.

Bauman, William H., III↗

State of the Art in Large-Scale Soil Moisture Monitoring

Soil moisture is an essential climate variable influencing land atmosphere interactions, an essential hydrologic variable impacting rainfall runoff processes, an essential ecological variable regulating net ecosystem exchange, and an essential agricultural variable constraining food security. Large-scale soil moisture monitoring has advanced in recent years creating opportunities to transform scientific understanding of soil moisture and related processes. These advances are being driven by researchers from a broad range of disciplines, but this complicates collaboration and communication. For some applications, the science required to utilize large-scale soil moisture data is poorly developed. In this review, we describe the state of the art in large-scale soil moisture monitoring and identify some critical needs for research to optimize the use of increasingly available soil moisture data. We review representative examples of 1) emerging in situ and proximal sensing techniques, 2) dedicated soil moisture remote sensing missions, 3) soil moisture monitoring networks, and 4) applications of large-scale soil moisture measurements. Significant near-term progress seems possible in the use of large-scale soil moisture data for drought monitoring. Assimilation of soil moisture data for meteorological or hydrologic forecasting also shows promise, but significant challenges related to model structures and model errors remain. Little progress has been made yet in the use of large-scale soil moisture observations within the context of ecological or agricultural modeling. Opportunities abound to advance the science and practice of large-scale soil moisture monitoring for the sake of improved Earth system monitoring, modeling, and forecasting.

Review↗

Simulation of AMVs for OSSEs

An algorithm to simulate locations of atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) for use in observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) is described and demonstrated. It is intended to obviate likely deficiencies in nature run data [standard meteorological parameters and aerosol tracers] if used to produce images for feature tracking. The algorithm employs probabilistic functions that are tuned based on distributions of real observations and histograms of nature run fields. For distinct observation types, the algorithm produces geographical and vertical distributions, time - mean counts, and typical spacings of simulated locations that are, at least, qualitatively similar to those of real observations and are associated with nature run cloud and water vapor fields. It thus appears suitable for generating realistic atmospheric motion vectors for use in observing system simulation experiments.

Errico, R. M.↗

Impact of Gauge-Based Precipitation Corrections on the Skill of SMAP Level-4 Soil Moisture Estimates

The NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission provides observations of L-band (1.4 GHz) passive microwave brightness temperature (Tb) observations at a resolution of ~40 km globally every 2-3 days. These observations are routinely assimilated into the NASA Catchment land surface model to generate the Level-4 Soil Moisture (L4_SM) product, which provides global estimates of surface and root-zone soil moisture, soil temperature, and surface fluxes (among others) at 9-km, 3-hourly resolution with ~2.5-day latency. The Catchment land surface model in the L4_SM algorithm is driven with 0.25°, hourly surface meteorological forcing data from the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) "forward-processing" product. Outside of Africa and the high latitudes, the GEOS precipitation forcing is corrected using the Climate Prediction Center Unified (CPCU) gauge-based, 0.5°, daily precipitation product.Soil moisture estimates from the L4_SM product were previously shown to improve over land model-only estimates that do not benefit from the assimilation of Tb observations, thereby demonstrating the value of assimilating SMAP observations for soil moisture estimation. In this presentation, we further isolate the contribution of the gauge-based precipitation corrections to the skill of the L4_SM soil moisture estimates. Specifically, we compare the skill of the L4_SM soil moisture to that of separate model-only and assimilation estimates obtained without the benefit of the gauge-based precipitation corrections.Preliminary results suggest that the soil moisture skill added by the CPCU-based precipitation corrections primarily depends on the quality of the CPCU precipitation product and is greatest in regions where the CPCU gauge network is dense and reliable. Conversely, in regions where the CPCU product is known to be of poor quality, for example in central Australia, the assimilation of SMAP Tb observations provides the most benefit. The presentation will provide an in-depth evaluation of the soil moisture skill of the model-only and assimilation estimates vs. independent in situ and satellite measurements.

Reichle, Rolf↗

The Contributions of Gauge-Based Precipitation and SMAP Brightness Temperature Observations to the Skill of the SMAP Level-4 Soil Moisture Product

Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission L-band brightness temperature (Tb) observations are routinely assimilated into the Catchment land surface model to generate Level-4 Soil Moisture (L4_SM) estimates of global surface and root-zone soil moisture at 9-km, 3-hourly resolution with ~2.5-day latency. The Catchment model in the L4_SM algorithm is driven with ¼-degree, hourly surface meteorological forcing data from the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS). Outside of Africa and the high latitudes, GEOS precipitation is corrected using Climate Prediction Center Unified (CPCU) gauge-based, ½-degree, daily precipitation. L4_SM soil moisture was previously shown to improve over land model-only estimates that use CPCU precipitation but no Tb assimilation (CPCU_SIM). Here, we additionally examine the skill of model-only (CTRL) and Tb assimilation-only (SMAP_DA) estimates derived without CPCU precipitation. Soil moisture is assessed versus in situ measurements in well-instrumented regions and globally through the Instrumental Variable (IV) method using independent soil moisture retrievals from the Advanced Scatterometer. At the in situ locations, SMAP_DA and CPCU_SIM have comparable soil moisture skill improvements relative to CTRL for the unbiased root-mean-square error (surface and root-zone) and correlation metrics (root-zone only). In the global average, SMAP Tb assimilation increases the surface soil moisture anomaly correlation by 0.10-0.11 compared to an increase of 0.02-0.03 from the CPCU-based precipitation corrections. The contrast is particularly strong in central Australia, where CPCU is known to have errors and observation-minus-forecast Tb residuals are larger when CPCU precipitation is used. Validation versus streamflow measurements in the contiguous U.S. reveals that CPCU precipitation provides most of the skill gained in L4_SM runoff estimates over CTRL.

SMAP↗

Groundwater Recharge Estimated by Land Surface Models: An Evaluation in the Conterminous U.S.

Estimating diffuse recharge of precipitation is fundamental to assessing groundwater sustainability. Diffuse recharge is also the process through which climate and climate change directly affect groundwater. In this study, we evaluated diffuse recharge over the conterminous U.S. simulated by a suite of land surface models (LSMs) that were forced using a common set of meteorological input data. Simulated annual recharge exhibited spatial patterns that were similar among the LSMs, with the highest values in the eastern U.S. and Pacific Northwest. However, the magnitudes of annual recharge varied significantly among the models and were associated with differences in simulated ET, runoff and snow. Evaluation against two independent datasets did not answer the question of whether the ensemble mean performs the best, due to inconsistency between those datasets. The amplitude and timing of seasonal maximum recharge differed among the models, influenced strongly by model physics governing deep soil moisture drainage rates and, in cold regions, snowmelt. Evaluation using in situ soil moisture observations suggested that true recharge peaks 1-3 months later than simulated recharge, indicating systematic biases in simulating deep soil moisture. However, recharge from lateral flows and through preferential flows cannot be inferred from soil moisture data, and the seasonal cycle of simulated groundwater storage actually compared well with in situ groundwater observations. Long-term trends in recharge were not consistently correlated with either precipitation trends or temperature trends. This study highlights the need to employ dynamic flow models in LSMs, among other improvements, to enable more accurate simulation of recharge.

snowmelt↗

On the Motion of Air Through the Stratospheric Polar Vortex

Trajectory calculations using horizontal winds from the United Kingdom Meteorological Office data assimilation system, and vertical velocities from a radiation calculation are used to simulate the three-dimensional motion of air through the stratospheric polar vortex, for several northern hemisphere(NH) and southern hemisphere (SH) winters since the launch of UARS.

UARS↗

Visualization and Analysis of Near Real-Time Global Cloud Composites (GCC): Integration in a Geospatial Web Mapping Application

The NASA Langley Satellite ClOud and Radiation Property retrieval System (SatCORPS) team provides tools for retrieving cloud information from operational and research meteorological imager data. LEO and GEO satellite imagers are used for fusing hourly mosaics which create the Global Cloud Composite (GCC). The GCC provides global cloud products with a low latency which can help satisfy the growing needs of the research, modeling and business communities. The Esri ArcGIS system is used to transform the GCC data into Analysis Ready Data (ARD) which can be utilized for a variety of visualization and analysis activities in support of weather diagnoses/forecasting, Earth Sciences remote sensing applications, and disaster management. Additionally, the data is enabled as ArcGIS Image Services and Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) Web Mapping/Coverage Services to be consumed via API within a web mapping application. We will present a preview of the new interactive SatCORPS GCC web mapping application and its capabilities in allowing users to access and use GIS data within it.

Web Mapping Application↗

A Prescribed Fire Emission Factors Database for Land Management and Air Quality Applications

The Clean Air Act, its amendments, and air quality regulations require that prescribed fire managers estimate the quantity of emissions that a prescribed fire will produce. Information on emissions is available for these calculations; however, it is often incomplete or difficult to find. Tables and computer models can also provide some of this information, but the quality and applicability of the data to a specific site are unknown. In conjunction with three research projects developing new emissions data and meteorological tools to assist prescribed fire managers, the Resource Conservation and Climate Change Program Area of the Department of Defense's Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program is supporting development of a database that contains emissions information related to prescribed burning. Ultimately the vetted database will be available on the Internet and will contain emissions information that has been developed from laboratory and field-scale measurements and has been published.

Lincoln, Emily↗

Resilient Autonomous Wind Farms: Preprint

With the advent of an increasing number of control strategies that seek to optimize wind turbine performance on a farm-level, taking account of individual wind turbine information to achieve wind farm-level objectives has become an increasingly important goal. Methods for controlling wind turbines on an individual and farm level have seen significant development, and an abundance of new implementations for gathering and using data from turbines have created potential for novel control mechanisms which can further optimize the performance and delivery characteristics of a wind farm. A key element of making these wind farms more efficient is to develop reliable algorithms that use local sensor information that is already being collected, such as supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) data, local meteorological stations, and nearby radars/sodars/lidars. Making use of information from all wind turbines in a wind farm can enable such approaches as determining the atmospheric conditions across the farm, improving fault-finding, and enabling more efficient overall control of farm-wide optimizations through mechanisms such as wake-steering. However, these approaches typically involve a centralized communications and control center. In order to ensure the resilient operation of the farm, it is necessary to develop an approach which distributes the calculation and communication amongst multiple nodes throughout the farm. In this fashion, a redundant, robust, and secure network can be created, which can tolerate faults in calculation, communication, and even external attacks which seek to disrupt the operation of the wind farm. This paper introduces the use of the Raft Byzantine Fault Tolerance algorithm in the implementation of autonomous control of a wind farm. This implementation will allow for fault tolerance for malfunctioning nodes, sensors, transmitters, and connectors. This approach is equally extensible to account for malicious actors. It will be shown to achieve overall consensus, provided the number of faults/malicious nodes is less than 3$n$+1, where $n$ is the number of turbine cluster faults which may occur, and to be robust in the face of multiple arbitrary faults.

autonomous↗