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DOE OSTI2013

A Comparison of Forecast Error Generators for Modeling Wind and Load Uncertainty

This paper presents four algorithms to generate random forecast error time series, including a truncated-normal distribution model, a state-space based Markov model, a seasonal autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model, and a stochastic-optimization based model. The error time series are used to create real-time (RT), hour-ahead (HA), and day-ahead (DA) wind and load forecast time series that statistically match historically observed forecasting data sets, used for variable generation integration studies. A comparison is made using historical DA load forecast and actual load values to generate new sets of DA forecasts with similar stoical forecast error characteristics. This paper discusses and compares the capabilities of each algorithm to preserve the characteristics of the historical forecast data sets.

Lu, Ning↗

DOE OSTI2011

Lifetime Prediction for Degradation of Solar Mirrors using Step-Stress Accelerated Testing (Presentation)

This research is to illustrate the use of statistical inference techniques in order to quantify the uncertainty surrounding reliability estimates in a step-stress accelerated degradation testing (SSADT) scenario. SSADT can be used when a researcher is faced with a resource-constrained environment, e.g., limits on chamber time or on the number of units to test. We apply the SSADT methodology to adegradation experiment involving concentrated solar power (CSP) mirrors and compare the results to a more traditional multiple accelerated testing paradigm. Specifically, our work includes: (1) designing a durability testing plan for solar mirrors (3M's new improved silvered acrylic 'Solar Reflector Film (SFM) 1100') through the ultra-accelerated weathering system (UAWS), (2) definingdegradation paths of optical performance based on the SSADT model which is accelerated by high UV-radiant exposure, and (3) developing service lifetime prediction models for solar mirrors using advanced statistical inference. We use the method of least squares to estimate the model parameters and this serves as the basis for the statistical inference in SSADT. Several quantities of interest canbe estimated from this procedure, e.g., mean-time-to-failure (MTTF) and warranty time. The methods allow for the estimation of quantities that may be of interest to the domain scientists.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2016

SU-F-J-217: Accurate Dose Volume Parameters Calculation for Revealing Rectum Dose-Toxicity Effect Using Deformable Registration in Cervical Cancer Brachytherapy: A Pilot Study

Purpose: To study the feasibility of employing deformable registration methods for accurate rectum dose volume parameters calculation and their potentials in revealing rectum dose-toxicity between complication and non-complication cervical cancer patients with brachytherapy treatment. Method and Materials: Data from 60 patients treated with BT including planning images, treatment plans, and follow-up clinical exam were retrospectively collected. Among them, 12 patients complained about hematochezia were further examined with colonoscopy and scored as Grade 1–3 complication (CP). Meanwhile, another 12 non-complication (NCP) patients were selected as a reference group. To seek for potential gains in rectum toxicity prediction when fractional anatomical deformations are account for, the rectum dose volume parameters D0.1/1/2cc of the selected patients were retrospectively computed by three different approaches: the simple “worstcase scenario” (WS) addition method, an intensity-based deformable image registration (DIR) algorithm-Demons, and a more accurate, recent developed local topology preserved non-rigid point matching algorithm (TOP). Statistical significance of the differences between rectum doses of the CP group and the NCP group were tested by a two-tailed t-test and results were considered to be statistically significant if p < 0.05. Results: For the D0.1cc, no statistical differences are found between the CP and NCP group in all three methods. For the D1cc, dose difference is not detected by the WS method, however, statistical differences between the two groups are observed by both Demons and TOP, and more evident in TOP. For the D2cc, the CP and NCP cases are statistically significance of the difference for all three methods but more pronounced with TOP. Conclusion: In this study, we calculated the rectum D0.1/1/2cc by simple WS addition and two DIR methods and seek for gains in rectum toxicity prediction. The results favor the claim that accurate dose deformation and summation tend to be more sensitive in unveiling the dose-toxicity relationship. This work is supported in part by grant from VARIAN MEDICAL SYSTEMS INC, the National Natural Science Foundation of China (no 81428019 and no 81301940), the Guangdong Natural Science Foundation (2015A030313302)and the 2015 Pearl River S&T Nova Program of Guangzhou (201506010096).

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2015

PROBING THE ISOTROPY OF COSMIC ACCELERATION TRACED BY TYPE Ia SUPERNOVAE

We present a method to test the isotropy of the magnitude–redshift relation of Type Ia Supernovae (SNe Ia) and single out the most discrepant direction (in terms of the signal-to-noise ratio) with respect to the all-sky data. Our technique accounts for possible directional variations of the corrections for SNe Ia and yields all-sky maps of the best-fit cosmological parameters with arbitrary angular resolution. To show its potential, we apply our method to the high-redshift SNe Ia from the recent Union2.1 compilation, building maps with three different angular resolutions. We use a Monte Carlo method to estimate the statistical significance with which we could reject the null hypothesis that the magnitude–redshift relation is isotropic based on the properties of the observed most discrepant directions. We find that, based on pure signal-to-noise arguments, the null hypothesis cannot be rejected at any meaningful confidence level. However, if we also consider that the strongest deviations in the Union2.1 sample closely align with the dipole temperature anisotropy of the cosmic microwave background, we find that the null hypothesis should be rejected at the 95%–99% confidence level, slightly depending on the angular resolution of the study. If this result is not due to a statistical fluke, it might either indicate that the SN data have not been cleaned from all possible systematics or even point toward new physics. We finally discuss future perspectives in the field for achieving larger and more uniform data sets that will vastly improve the quality of the results and optimally exploit our method.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2016

A Statistical Testing Approach for Quantifying Software Reliability; Application to an Example System

The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) encourages the use of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) technology in all regulatory matters, to the extent supported by the state-of-the-art in PRA methods and data. Although much has been accomplished in the area of risk-informed regulation, risk assessment for digital systems has not been fully developed. The NRC established a plan for research on digital systems to identify and develop methods, analytical tools, and regulatory guidance for (1) including models of digital systems in the PRAs of nuclear power plants (NPPs), and (2) incorporating digital systems in the NRC's risk-informed licensing and oversight activities. Under NRC's sponsorship, Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) explored approaches for addressing the failures of digital instrumentation and control (I and C) systems in the current NPP PRA framework. Specific areas investigated included PRA modeling digital hardware, development of a philosophical basis for defining software failure, and identification of desirable attributes of quantitative software reliability methods. Based on the earlier research, statistical testing is considered a promising method for quantifying software reliability. This paper describes a statistical software testing approach for quantifying software reliability and applies it to the loop-operating control system (LOCS) of an experimental loop of the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) at Idaho National Laboratory (INL).

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2019

Statistics of the Charge Spectrum of Photo-Multipliers and Methods for Absolute Calibration

In this paper, we derive the full expression for the shape of the charge distribution that results from the illumination of a photo-multiplier tube. The derivation assumes that the photo-multiplier is operated with low intensity illumination with constant gain. Under these conditions, it is shown that an analytic expression can be formulated that describes details of the spectrum including the pedestal and dark noise with excellent fidelity to allow statistical fits to data. The full formula and its limiting forms under various simplifying assumptions are presented with strategies on their use. The analytic description can be used to formulate data acquisition strategies to perform precise absolute calibration of photo-multipliers, the digitizers, and the data acquisition system.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2025

An update to the Sandia method for creating Typical Meteorological Years from a limited pool of calendar years

Typical Meteorological Years (TMYs) are essential for the efficient evaluation of energy system performance. Ideally, 30 years of weather data are required to generate TMYs, but significantly fewer years are typically available due to practical limitations. To address this issue, an update to the Sandia method was developed, referred to as the Argonne method, to create TMYs from a limited number of years. Furthermore, this method enhances candidate diversity by systematically shifting original candidate months forward or backward by specific days, creating an expanded pool of candidates. The effectiveness of the Argonne method was validated through statistical testing, comparison of monthly average weather parameters, and numerical simulations. The results demonstrate a high probability of identifying at least one shifted month whose cumulative distribution functions of weather parameters closely align with long-term distributions. In 67 % of all comparisons, the monthly average weather parameters in TMYs generated using the Argonne method exhibit better agreement with long-term averages than TMY3. Moreover, in 74 % of the 318 building simulation cases, the Argonne method outperforms TMY3 in estimating long-term average building heating and cooling demands. Therefore, the Argonne method effectively diversifies the candidate pool and produces typical years that provide more accurate estimations of long-term averages compared to TMY3 when only a limited pool of calendar years (10 years or fewer) is available.

Building energy modeling↗

DOE OSTI2015

DETECTING UNSPECIFIED STRUCTURE IN LOW-COUNT IMAGES

Unexpected structure in images of astronomical sources often presents itself upon visual inspection of the image, but such apparent structure may either correspond to true features in the source or be due to noise in the data. This paper presents a method for testing whether inferred structure in an image with Poisson noise represents a significant departure from a baseline (null) model of the image. To infer image structure, we conduct a Bayesian analysis of a full model that uses a multiscale component to allow flexible departures from the posited null model. As a test statistic, we use a tail probability of the posterior distribution under the full model. This choice of test statistic allows us to estimate a computationally efficient upper bound on a p-value that enables us to draw strong conclusions even when there are limited computational resources that can be devoted to simulations under the null model. We demonstrate the statistical performance of our method on simulated images. Applying our method to an X-ray image of the quasar 0730+257, we find significant evidence against the null model of a single point source and uniform background, lending support to the claim of an X-ray jet.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2018

Evaluating the Methodologies of Assessing Long-Term Variability of Wind Speed

Wind resources vary from year to year, and hence the long-term variability of wind speed is a key component of the overall uncertainty in the wind resource assessment process. Because wind-turbine power generation is highly sensitive to wind speed, the variability of wind resources has important implications for renewable power production. As many approaches of calculating the spread of distribution exist, we aim to identify the methods most appropriate for all types of wind-speed distributions. We review and compare various methods, such as the Coefficient of Variation (CoV) and the Robust Coefficient of Variation (RCoV). Because the length of data available also affects the resultant spread, we determine the minimum length of wind-speed records to quantify variability accurately. We use the net monthly energy production of 607 wind farms in the United States from the Energy Information Administration and the wind speeds of the MERRA-2 reanalysis dataset from NASA. After filtering the energy data via linear regression, we assess the accuracy of the variability calculations by comparing the correlations between the wind-speed variability estimates and the variabilities of wind-farm power productions. Results from statistically robust and resistant methods yield higher correlations between wind-speed and energy-production variabilities, as robust methods do not assume Gaussian wind-speed distributions and resistant methods are insensitive to wind speed extremes. We recommend RCoV to systematically estimate long-term variability, with 10 years of monthly mean data to achieve 90% statistical confidence. We will also provide generalized guidance on how to estimate long-term variability including case studies where we identify regions with high wind speeds and low wind-speed RCoVs, such as the Great Plains and the Upper Midwest in central United States.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Transposon signatures of allopolyploid genome evolution

Hybridization brings together chromosome sets from two or more distinct progenitor species. Genome duplication associated with hybridization, or allopolyploidy, allows these chromosome sets to persist as distinct subgenomes during subsequent meioses. Here, we present a general method for identifying the subgenomes of a polyploid based on shared ancestry as revealed by the genomic distribution of repetitive elements that were active in the progenitors. This subgenome-enriched transposable element signal is intrinsic to the polyploid, allowing broader applicability than other approaches that depend on the availability of sequenced diploid relatives. We develop the statistical basis of the method, demonstrate its applicability in the well-studied cases of tobacco, cotton, and Brassica napus, and apply it to several cases: allotetraploid cyprinids, allohexaploid false flax, and allooctoploid strawberry. These analyses provide insight into the origins of these polyploids, revise the subgenome identities of strawberry, and provide perspective on subgenome dominance in higher polyploids.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

amsession/Kmer-based-Subgenome-Mapping

Session, Adam↗

DOE OSTI2019

Efficient propagation of systematic uncertainties from calibration to analysis with the SnowStorm method in IceCube

Efficient treatment of systematic uncertainties that depend on a large number of nuisance parameters is a persistent difficulty in particle physics and astrophysics experiments. Where low-level effects are not amenable to simple parameterization or re-weighting, analyses often rely on discrete simulation sets to quantify the effects of nuisance parameters on key analysis observables. Such methods may become computationally untenable for analyses requiring high statistics Monte Carlo with a large number of nuisance degrees of freedom, especially in cases where these degrees of freedom parameterize the shape of a continuous distribution. In this paper we present a method for treating systematic uncertainties in a computationally efficient and comprehensive manner using a single simulation set with multiple and continuously varied nuisance parameters. Finally, this method is demonstrated for the case of the depth-dependent effective dust distribution within the IceCube Neutrino Telescope.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Comparison of four learning-based methods for predicting groundwater redox status

Knowing the location where groundwater denitrification occurs, or by proxy the groundwater redox status (oxic, mixed, and anoxic), is valuable information for assessing and managing potential agricultural land-use impacts on freshwater quality. We compare the efficacy of supervised (Linear Discriminant Analysis LDA; Boosted Regression Trees, BRT; and Random Forest, RF) and unsupervised (Modified Self-Organizing Map, MSOM) learning-based methods to predict groundwater redox status in the agriculturally dominated Tasman, Waikato, and Wellington regions of New Zealand. Thresholds applied to regional groundwater-quality samples provide redox status variables and learn heuristics constrained by these variables and applied to spatial factors (climate, elevation, geologic, hydrology soils, and well depth) identify optimal sets of regional predictor variables. A split-sample approach is used to train and test the learning methods ability to predict redox status using the optimal predictor variables. Overall, the supervised methods demonstrate a prediction bias toward oxic conditions and inability to perform statistically well when using independent regional data; for example, consider kappa statistics for BRT (Tasman: 0.42, Waikato: 0.38, Wellington: 0.17), RF (Tasman: 0.42, Waikato: 0.47, Wellington: 0.17 and LDA (Tasman: 0.46, Waikato: 0.32, Wellington: 0.17). By contrast, the unsupervised method performs statistically well when predicting oxic, mixed, and anoxic conditions and corresponding depths when using independent regional data; for example, consider MSOM kappa statistics for Tasman: 0.78, Waikato: 0.80, Wellington: 0.76. The unsupervised learning method provides the added benefits of being (1) able to combine predictions into 3D regional anoxic probability plots for interpreting the spatial influence of paleosols and groundwater flowpaths on redox status, and (2) readily extended to map 3D redox status across New Zealand and other countries despite data bias and sparsity.

machine learning algorithms, Random Forest, booste↗

DOE OSTI2021

Simplified Method for the In Situ Collection and Laboratory Analysis of Cosmogenic Tracers (Sulfur-35 and Sodium-22) to Determine Residence Time Distributions and Water Ages

The use of cosmogenically produced sulfur-35 (T 1/2 = 87 days) and sodium-22 (T 1/2 = 2.6 years) as intrinsic tracers can provide valuable information on catchment hydrology, flow paths, and subsurface storage. A new and straightforward method was created to determine the activities of both 35 S and 22 Na in various water sources by pumping large volumes (up to 1000 L) of water through cation- and anion-exchange resin columns in the field to collect sodium and sulfate ions and simple chemistry in the lab. Samples are counted for 35 S using liquid scintillation counting (LSC) and for 22 Na via γ spectroscopy. Our novel in situ method provides faster sample throughput as well as better counting statistics and lower detection limits. Both methods were successfully applied at the Southern Sierra Critical Zone Observatory.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2016

Comparing generalized ensemble methods for sampling of systems with many degrees of freedom

Here, we compare two standard replica exchange methods using temperature and dielectric constant as the scaling variables for independent replicas against two new corresponding enhanced sampling methods based on non-equilibrium statistical cooling (temperature) or descreening (dielectric). We test the four methods on a rough 1D potential as well as for alanine dipeptide in water, for which their relatively small phase space allows for the ability to define quantitative convergence metrics. We show that both dielectric methods are inferior to the temperature enhanced sampling methods, and in turn show that temperature cool walking (TCW) systematically outperforms the standard temperature replica exchange (TREx) method. We extend our comparisons of the TCW and TREx methods to the 5 residue met-enkephalin peptide, in which we evaluate the Kullback-Leibler divergence metric to show that the rate of convergence between two independent trajectories is faster for TCW compared to TREx. Finally we apply the temperature methods to the 42 residue amyloid-β peptide in which we find non-negligible differences in the disordered ensemble using TCW compared to the standard TREx. All four methods have been made available as software through the OpenMM Omnia software consortium.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2018

Quality quandaries: Experiencing the practice of statistics with simple experiments

This article illustrates the practice of statistics through simple experiments. In running ex- periments that involve blowing bubbles, collecting rain, and spinning propellers, issues arise that in the practice of statistics require being carefully addressed to correctly apply statisti- cal methods. Addressing these issues involves developing statistical models, simulation, and optimization. Sometimes the solutions require research, i.e., applied research.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2012

The use of nested sampling in the extraction of polarisation observables at CLAS

The extraction of polarisation observables from photoproduction experiments provides an insight into the spectrum of nucleon resonances and the 'missing resonance' problem. Experiments carried out at JLab, Mainz and Bonn cover a wide range of reactions, which will soon result in the first 'complete measurement' in pseudoscalar meson photoproduction. Traditionally, these measurements have been analysed using frequentist statistics, where parameters are extracted by fitting distributions. An alternative method is the application of Bayesian statistics, where any existing knowledge about the results can be used in the initial conditions. One such application of this is nested sampling. This work discusses nested sampling and how it can be applied to the extraction of spin observables.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2014

Statistical model based iterative reconstruction (MBIR) in clinical CT systems: Experimental assessment of noise performance

Purpose: To reduce radiation dose in CT imaging, the statistical model based iterative reconstruction (MBIR) method has been introduced for clinical use. Based on the principle of MBIR and its nonlinear nature, the noise performance of MBIR is expected to be different from that of the well-understood filtered backprojection (FBP) reconstruction method. The purpose of this work is to experimentally assess the unique noise characteristics of MBIR using a state-of-the-art clinical CT system. Methods: Three physical phantoms, including a water cylinder and two pediatric head phantoms, were scanned in axial scanning mode using a 64-slice CT scanner (Discovery CT750 HD, GE Healthcare, Waukesha, WI) at seven different mAs levels (5, 12.5, 25, 50, 100, 200, 300). At each mAs level, each phantom was repeatedly scanned 50 times to generate an image ensemble for noise analysis. Both the FBP method with a standard kernel and the MBIR method (Veo{sup ®}, GE Healthcare, Waukesha, WI) were used for CT image reconstruction. Three-dimensional (3D) noise power spectrum (NPS), two-dimensional (2D) NPS, and zero-dimensional NPS (noise variance) were assessed both globally and locally. Noise magnitude, noise spatial correlation, noise spatial uniformity and their dose dependence were examined for the two reconstruction methods. Results: (1) At each dose level and at each frequency, the magnitude of the NPS of MBIR was smaller than that of FBP. (2) While the shape of the NPS of FBP was dose-independent, the shape of the NPS of MBIR was strongly dose-dependent; lower dose lead to a “redder” NPS with a lower mean frequency value. (3) The noise standard deviation (σ) of MBIR and dose were found to be related through a power law of σ ∝ (dose){sup −β} with the component β ≈ 0.25, which violated the classical σ ∝ (dose){sup −0.5} power law in FBP. (4) With MBIR, noise reduction was most prominent for thin image slices. (5) MBIR lead to better noise spatial uniformity when compared with FBP. (6) A composite image generated from two MBIR images acquired at two different dose levels (D1 and D2) demonstrated lower noise than that of an image acquired at a dose level of D1+D2. Conclusions: The noise characteristics of the MBIR method are significantly different from those of the FBP method. The well known tradeoff relationship between CT image noise and radiation dose has been modified by MBIR to establish a more gradual dependence of noise on dose. Additionally, some other CT noise properties that had been well understood based on the linear system theory have also been altered by MBIR. Clinical CT scan protocols that had been optimized based on the classical CT noise properties need to be carefully re-evaluated for systems equipped with MBIR in order to maximize the method's potential clinical benefits in dose reduction and/or in CT image quality improvement.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗