Results for “Simulator data” — Page 73

DOE OSTI2024

Deep Learning-based Non-Stationary Bias Correction (NSBC)

This work develops the NSBC (non-stationary bias correction) methodology to correct temperature projection bias from E3SM. The NSBC deep learning framework consists of a three-part architecture: an auto-encoder for compressing the spatial information, an LSTM for predicting annual temperature mean, and a U-Net for capturing the residual bias in temperature. The non-stationary bias correction (NSBC) framework can correct the non-stationarity of the biases of the climate models, which significantly improves the accuracy of future temperature prediction and improves the overestimation of extreme high temperatures that many existing bias correction methods suffer from. Getting started 1. Obtain the historical climate simulation and observation data. The E3SM simulation data are available through https://aims2.llnl.gov/search/cmip6/. The pseudo observations, the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL)-ESM4 model (Krasting et al., 2018) are available through https://aims2.llnl.gov/search/cmip6/. The spatial resolution of E3SM and pseudo observation datasets are both regridded to a common 1° resolution grid using conservative interpolation. The regridded E3SM and pseudo observation with 1° resolution can be found throught ./data/. 2. Train the Auto-encoder model. Python 0-autoencoder.py 3. Train the LSTM Python 1-LSTM.py 4. Generate the annual mean temperature based on trained LSTM Python 2-generate_annual_mean_LSTM.py 5. Train the U-Net. Python 3-unet.py 6. Evaluation and compared with the baseline Python 4_evaluation.py Is there a deadline approaching that requires the release of yo

Lucas, Donald↗

DOE OSTI2022

How close are urban scale building simulations to measured data? Examining bias derived from building metadata in urban building energy modeling

Residential and commercial buildings in the United States accounted for 40% of total energy in 2020. Building energy modeling (BEM) is a useful tool that allows individuals, researchers, companies, or utilities to save energy by optimizing buildings through estimation of building technology savings and performance projection of building energy under various environmental conditions. Urban building energy modeling (UBEM) expands the scope beyond individual buildings to the buildings in a neighborhood, city, utility and more. Yet there is a knowledge gap in the literature as to how these models compare to measured data on an individual and aggregated basis. As UBEM data and methods continue to develop, it is important to consider the accuracy, bias, and limitations of the models. Here, nation-scale data and UBEM software suite named Automatic Building Energy Modeling (AutoBEM) was used to model 50,843 buildings in Chattanooga, Tennessee. The uncalibrated simulation results were compared to aggregated 15-minute electricity data for the year 2019 with visualizations highlighting sources of bias in building data and the AutoBEM framework while considering how they relate to other UBEM methods. Estimation of building type and year of constructions are found to be the major sources of bias. Accounting for the amount of conditioned area per building significantly improves the overall fit of the simulated energy use intensity. it was found that inherent variation in building energy use contributes to R 2 values between 0.008 and 0.095 across building types but slope values near 1 for the total number of buildings. This indicates the need for building aggregation for representative building energy modeling with data sources available at an urban scale while illustrating the need for additional individual building data and model improvement beyond the originally produced UBEM models for individual building analysis.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2019

Experimental data based combinatorial kinetic simulations for predictions of synergistic catalyst mixtures

Physical mixtures of catalysts can sometimes show synergistic activity which exceeds the sum of the activities of the same amount of catalysts employed separately. However, identifying such synergistic mixtures is non-trivial. Not all mixtures display synergy, and the number of combinations that are possible (even for binary mixtures of equal portions) scales very rapidly, and thus they would be costly to screen experimentally. In this work, we show that it is possible to predict synergistic mixtures using combinatorial kinetic simulations based on experimental data collected on individual catalysts. The data was first collected for conditions-of-interest under low conversions (also called near differential conditions, such that each condition approximates a small volume in a non-differential conditions reactor) to build a library of kinetic models (one model for each catalyst). This data was then used for combinatorial kinetic simulations of non-differential reactor scale conversions, and successfully predicted the qualitative behavior of two synergistic physical mixtures. The capability was utilized in the present work in the context of converting CO, C 3 H 6 , and NO species in simulated car exhaust, but is a general approach. We provide equations to estimate the costs of the screening method as well as the combinatorial kinetics method and show that the costs of identifying synergistic physical mixtures become much lower with the combinatorial kinetics method even before ten catalysts of interest. The cost of using prediction by the combinatorial kinetics method continue to become lower (relative to screening) when more catalysts are added -- and even more so if mixtures beyond two components, or consideration of multiple catalyst ratios, is of interest.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2021

Streamflow simulation in data-scarce basins using Bayesian and physics-informed machine learning models

Hydrologic predictions at rural watersheds are important but also challenging due to data shortage. Long short-term memory (LSTM) networks are a promising machine learning approach and have demonstrated good performance in streamflow predictions. However, due to its data-hungry nature, most LSTM applications focus on well-monitored catchments with abundant and high-quality observations. In this work, we investigate predictive capabilities of LSTM in poorly monitored watersheds with short observation records. To address three main challenges of LSTM applications in data-scarce locations, i.e., overfitting, uncertainty quantification (UQ), and out-of-distribution prediction, we evaluate different regularization techniques to prevent overfitting, apply a Bayesian LSTM for UQ, and introduce a physics-informed hybrid LSTM to enhance out-of-distribution prediction. Through case studies in two diverse sets of catchments with and without snow influence, we demonstrate that 1) when hydrologic variability in the prediction period is similar to the calibration period, LSTM models can reasonably predict daily streamflow with Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency above 0.8, even with only 2 years of calibration data; 2) when the hydrologic variability in the prediction and calibration periods is dramatically different, LSTM alone does not predict well, but the hybrid model can improve the out-of-distribution prediction with acceptable generalization accuracy; 3) L2 norm penalty and dropout can mitigate overfitting, and Bayesian and hybrid LSTM have no overfitting; and 4) Bayesian LSTM provides useful uncertainty information to improve prediction understanding and credibility. In conclusion, these insights have vital implications for streamflow simulation in watersheds where data quality and availability are a critical issue.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2013

Comparison between phase field simulations and experimental data from intragranular bubble growth in UO{sub 2}

In this work, we used the phase field method to simulate the post-irradiation annealing of UO{sub 2} described in the experimental work by Kashibe et al., 1993 [1]. The simulations were carried out in 2D and 3D using the MARMOT FEM-based phase-field modeling framework. The 2-D results compared fairly well with the experiments, in spite of the assumptions made in the model. The 3-D results compare even more favorably to experiments, indicating that diffusion in all three directions must be considered to accurate represent the bubble growth. (authors)

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2012

PROPERTIES OF UMBRAL DOTS AS MEASURED FROM THE NEW SOLAR TELESCOPE DATA AND MHD SIMULATIONS

We studied bright umbral dots (UDs) detected in a moderate size sunspot and compared their statistical properties to recent MHD models. The study is based on high-resolution data recorded by the New Solar Telescope at the Big Bear Solar Observatory and three-dimensional (3D) MHD simulations of sunspots. Observed UDs, living longer than 150 s, were detected and tracked in a 46 minute long data set, using an automatic detection code. A total of 1553 (620) UDs were detected in the photospheric (low chromospheric) data. Our main findings are (1) none of the analyzed UDs is precisely circular, (2) the diameter-intensity relationship only holds in bright umbral areas, and (3) UD velocities are inversely related to their lifetime. While nearly all photospheric UDs can be identified in the low chromospheric images, some small closely spaced UDs appear in the low chromosphere as a single cluster. Slow-moving and long-living UDs seem to exist in both the low chromosphere and photosphere, while fast-moving and short-living UDs are mainly detected in the photospheric images. Comparison to the 3D MHD simulations showed that both types of UDs display, on average, very similar statistical characteristics. However, (1) the average number of observed UDs per unit area is smaller than that of the model UDs, and (2) on average, the diameter of model UDs is slightly larger than that of observed ones.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Using tabulated NLTE data for Hohlraum simulations

Non-local thermodyamic equilibrium (NLTE) atomic kinetics is necessary in inertial confinement fusion Hohlraum simulations for adequately modeling high-Z walls and dopants but is computationally very expensive. We present here an approach for tabulating NLTE material data in an economical manner. Material properties for an arbitrary radiation field are provided through tabulated data for a limited set of radiation fields plus derivatives with respect to components of those radiation fields. We have implemented this method in a radiation-hydrodynamics code and compare Hohlraum simulations done with inline NLTE calculations with those done with tables constructed from the same atomic data. The results demonstrate that NLTE tables can replace inline calculations in Hohlraum simulations without a significant loss of accuracy.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Ten questions on future and extreme weather data for building simulation and analysis in a changing climate

Weather plays a significant role in building operations as it directly influences HVAC loads and in turn the building energy and thermal performance. In a changing climate, future trends and extreme weather events become critical concerns in the global building decarbonization and clean energy transition. This paper aims to address ten key questions concerning extreme and future weather data for building applications, and more importantly to identify research gaps and guide the curation and selection of future and extreme weather data for use in building performance simulation and assessment. The paper intends to inform architects and engineers, operators, owners, policy makers, and other stakeholders on considering the impacts of future and extreme weather data and adopting strategies for selecting and applying this data in various use cases related to building design, operation, and retrofit for energy efficiency, electrification, and climate resilience.

Yan, Da↗

DOE OSTI2018

Correlated prompt fission data in transport simulations

Detailed information on the fission process can be inferred from the observation, modeling and theoretical understanding of prompt fission neutron and γ-ray observables. Beyond simple average quantities, the study of distributions and correlations in prompt data, e.g., multiplicity-dependent neutron and γ-ray spectra, angular distributions of the emitted particles, n -n, n - γ, and γ - γ correlations, can place stringent constraints on fission models and parameters that would otherwise be free to be tuned separately to represent individual fission observables. The FREYA and CGMF codes have been developed to follow the sequential emissions of prompt neutrons and γ rays from the initial excited fission fragments produced right after scission. Both codes implement Monte Carlo techniques to sample initial fission fragment configurations in mass, charge and kinetic energy and sample probabilities of neutron and γ emission at each stage of the decay. This approach naturally leads to using simple but powerful statistical techniques to infer distributions and correlations among many observables and model parameters. The comparison of model calculations with experimental data provides a rich arena for testing various nuclear physics models such as those related to the nuclear structure and level densities of neutron-rich nuclei, the γ-ray strength functions of dipole and quadrupole transitions, the mechanism for dividing the excitation energy between the two nascent fragments near scission, and the mechanisms behind the production of angular momentum in the fragments, etc. Beyond the obvious interest from a fundamental physics point of view, such studies are also important for addressing data needs in various nuclear applications. The inclusion of the FREYA and CGMF codes into the MCNP6.2 and MCNPX - PoliMi transport codes, for instance, provides a new and powerful tool to simulate correlated fission events in neutron transport calculations important in nonproliferation, safeguards, nuclear energy, and defense programs. Here, this review provides an overview of the topic, starting from theoretical considerations of the fission process, with a focus on correlated signatures. It then explores the status of experimental correlated fission data and current efforts to address some of the known shortcomings. Numerical simulations employing the FREYA and CGMF codes are compared to experimental data for a wide range of correlated fission quantities. The inclusion of those codes into the MCNP6.2 and MCNPX - PoliMi transport codes is described and discussed in the context of relevant applications. The accuracy of the model predictions and their sensitivity to model assumptions and input parameters are discussed. Lastly, a series of important experimental and theoretical questions that remain unanswered are presented, suggesting a renewed effort to address these shortcomings.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2015

Experimental and numerical investigations of beryllium strength models using the Rayleigh-Taylor instability

We present a set of high explosive driven Rayleigh-Taylor strength experiments for beryllium to produce data to distinguish predictions by various strength models. Design simulations using existing strength model parameterizations from Steinberg-Lund and Preston-Tonks-Wallace (PTW) suggested an optimal design that would delineate between not just different strength models, but different parameters sets of the PTW model. Application of the models to the post-shot results, however, suggests growth consistent with little material strength. We focus mostly on efforts to simulate the data using published strength models as well as the more recent RING relaxation model developed at VNIIEF. The results of the strength experiments indicate weak influence of strength in mitigating the growth with the RING model coming closest to predicting the material behavior. Finally, we present shock and ramp-loading recovery experiments.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2024

Simulations, Modeling and Data Analysis of Parity Violating Electron Scattering Experiments

In the Standard Model (SM) of nuclear and particle physics, parity violation is incorporated through the representation of the weak interaction as a chiral gauge interaction. Only the left-handed components of particles and right-handed components of antiparticles participate in weak interactions in the Standard Model. This implies that parity is asymmetric for the weak interaction. Parity violating electron scattering (PVES) experiments are designed to probe the physics parameters related to the SM, with the possibility to discover physics beyond the SM (BSM) by measuring the parity violating asymmetry ¿¿¿ of longitudinally polarized electrons scattered off unpolarized targets with high precision. This dissertation will be focused on two PVES experiments, the next 208Pb Lead Radius Experiment (PREX-II), and the Measurement of a Lepton-Lepton Electroweak Reaction (MOLLER) experiment, as well as in some small sections, the Calcium Radius Experiment (CREX) and P2 experiment which are also PVES experiments). PREX-II and CREX experiments, performed in Hall A at the Thomas Jefferson National Accelerator Facility (Jefferson Lab), measured ¿¿¿ in the elastic scattering of longitudinally polarized electrons from 208Pb and 48Ca targets to provide a precise model independent determination of the neutron skin thickness of 208Pb and 48Ca nuclei, respectively. The MOLLER experiment, proposed to start in 2027 and also to be performed in Hall A at Jefferson Lab, is to measure ¿¿¿ of longitudinally polarized electrons scattered off unpolarized electrons (Møller scattering) to determine the weak charge of electrons ¿¿¿ and the weak mixing angle ¿¿ with high precision. As for the P2 experiment, which will be performed at the upcoming MESA accelerator in Mainz Germany, it is to measure the weak charge of proton ¿¿¿ using ¿¿¿ in the elastic electron-proton scattering of polarized electrons off unpolarized protons. The final results from the PREX-II experiment are presented as ¿¿¿=550±16 (¿¿¿¿)±8 (¿¿¿¿) parts-per-billion (ppb). Combining the PREX-I and PREX-II results, the neutron skin thickness from PREX experiments is determined as ¿¿-¿¿=0.283±0.071 ¿¿ in 208Pb. This thesis lists the software and computational contribution of the author to these PVES experiments, including writing scripts and software to help with the PREX-II/CREX experiments, analyzing data to provide useful information and systematic uncertainty for the PREX-II experiment, modeling and simulations for the MOLLER, and providing an alternative design of an electronic equipment for the P2 experiment.

Chen, Yufan↗

DOE OSTI2024

Simulations, Modeling and Data Analysis of Parity Violating Electron Scattering Experiments

In the Standard Model (SM) of nuclear and particle physics, parity violation is incorporated through the representation of the weak interaction as a chiral gauge interaction. Only the left-handed components of particles and right-handed components of antiparticles participate in weak interactions in the Standard Model. This implies that parity is asymmetric for the weak interaction. Parity violating electron scattering (PVES) experiments are designed to probe the physics parameters related to the SM, with the possibility to discover physics beyond the SM (BSM) by measuring the parity violating asymmetry ¿¿¿ of longitudinally polarized electrons scattered off unpolarized targets with high precision. This dissertation will be focused on two PVES experiments, the next 208Pb Lead Radius Experiment (PREX-II), and the Measurement of a Lepton-Lepton Electroweak Reaction (MOLLER) experiment, as well as in some small sections, the Calcium Radius Experiment (CREX) and P2 experiment which are also PVES experiments). PREX-II and CREX experiments, performed in Hall A at the Thomas Jefferson National Accelerator Facility (Jefferson Lab), measured ¿¿¿ in the elastic scattering of longitudinally polarized electrons from 208Pb and 48Ca targets to provide a precise model independent determination of the neutron skin thickness of 208Pb and 48Ca nuclei, respectively. The MOLLER experiment, proposed to start in 2027 and also to be performed in Hall A at Jefferson Lab, is to measure ¿¿¿ of longitudinally polarized electrons scattered off unpolarized electrons (Møller scattering) to determine the weak charge of electrons ¿¿¿ and the weak mixing angle ¿¿ with high precision. As for the P2 experiment, which will be performed at the upcoming MESA accelerator in Mainz Germany, it is to measure the weak charge of proton ¿¿¿ using ¿¿¿ in the elastic electron-proton scattering of polarized electrons off unpolarized protons. The final results from the PREX-II experiment are presented as ¿¿¿=550±16 (¿¿¿¿)±8 (¿¿¿¿) parts-per-billion (ppb). Combining the PREX-I and PREX-II results, the neutron skin thickness from PREX experiments is determined as ¿¿-¿¿=0.283±0.071 ¿¿ in 208Pb. This thesis lists the software and computational contribution of the author to these PVES experiments, including writing scripts and software to help with the PREX-II/CREX experiments, analyzing data to provide useful information and systematic uncertainty for the PREX-II experiment, modeling and simulations for the MOLLER, and providing an alternative design of an electronic equipment for the P2 experiment.

Chen, Yufan↗

DOE OSTI2023

Towards fast, accurate predictions of RF simulations via data-driven modeling: Forward and lateral models

Three machine learning techniques (multilayer perceptron, random forest, and Gaussian process) provide fast surrogate models for lower hybrid current drive (LHCD) simulations. A single GENRAY/CQL3D simulation without radial diffusion of fast electrons requires several minutes of wall-clock time to complete, which is acceptable for many purposes, but too slow for integrated modeling and real-time control applications. More accurate simulations with fast electron diffusion are even slower, requiring multiple hours of run time with parallel processing. The machine learning models use a database of 16,000+ GEN-RAY/CQL3D simulations for training, validation, and testing. Latin hypercube sampling methods implemented in πScope ensure that the database covers the range of 9 input parameters (n e0 , T e0 , I p , B t , R 0 , n ∥︀ , Z e f f , V loop , P LHCD ) with sufficient density in all regions of parameter space. The surrogate models reduce the computation time from minutes-hours to ms with high accuracy across the input parameter space. Data-driven surrogate models also allow for solving inverse and “lateral” problems. A surrogate model for the inverse problem maps from a desired current drive or power deposition profile to a set of input parameters that would result in such a profile, while a surrogate model for the lateral problem maps from a measured experimental quantity such as hard x-ray emission to a current drive or power deposition profile. In conclusion, the πScope database creation workflow is flexible and applicable to other RF simulation codes such as TORIC.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2017

Testing the Accuracy of Data-driven MHD Simulations of Active Region Evolution

Models for the evolution of the solar coronal magnetic field are vital for understanding solar activity, yet the best measurements of the magnetic field lie at the photosphere, necessitating the development of coronal models which are “data-driven” at the photosphere. We present an investigation to determine the feasibility and accuracy of such methods. Our validation framework uses a simulation of active region (AR) formation, modeling the emergence of magnetic flux from the convection zone to the corona, as a ground-truth data set, to supply both the photospheric information and to perform the validation of the data-driven method. We focus our investigation on how the accuracy of the data-driven model depends on the temporal frequency of the driving data. The Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager on NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory produces full-disk vector magnetic field measurements at a 12-minute cadence. Using our framework we show that ARs that emerge over 25 hr can be modeled by the data-driving method with only ∼1% error in the free magnetic energy, assuming the photospheric information is specified every 12 minutes. However, for rapidly evolving features, under-sampling of the dynamics at this cadence leads to a strobe effect, generating large electric currents and incorrect coronal morphology and energies. We derive a sampling condition for the driving cadence based on the evolution of these small-scale features, and show that higher-cadence driving can lead to acceptable errors. Future work will investigate the source of errors associated with deriving plasma variables from the photospheric magnetograms as well as other sources of errors, such as reduced resolution, instrument bias, and noise.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2013

Recent Improvement of Measurement Instrumentation to Supervise Nuclear Operations and to Contribute Input Data to 3D Simulation Code - 13289

The CEA has developed many compact characterization tools to follow sensitive operations in a nuclear environment. Usually, these devices are made to carry out radiological inventories, to prepare nuclear interventions or to supervise some special operations. These in situ measurement techniques mainly take place at different stages of clean-up operations and decommissioning projects, but they are also in use to supervise sensitive operations when the nuclear plant is still operating. In addition to this, such tools are often associated with robots to access very highly radioactive areas, and thus can be used in accident situations. Last but not least, the radiological data collected can be entered in 3D calculation codes used to simulate the doses absorbed by workers in real time during operations in a nuclear environment. Faced with these ever-greater needs, nuclear measurement instrumentation always has to involve on-going improvement processes. Firstly, this paper will describe the latest developments and results obtained in both gamma and alpha imaging techniques. The gamma camera has been used by the CEA since the 1990's and several changes have made this device more sensitive, more compact and more competitive for nuclear plant operations. It is used to quickly identify hot spots, locating irradiating sources from 50 keV to 1500 keV. Several examples from a wide field of applications will be presented, together with the very latest developments. The alpha camera is a new camera used to see invisible alpha contamination on several kinds of surfaces. The latest results obtained allow real time supervision of a glove box cleaning operation (for {sup 241}Am contamination). The detection principle as well as the main trials and results obtained will be presented. Secondly, this paper will focus on in situ gamma spectrometry methods developed by the CEA with compact gamma spectrometry probes (CdZnTe, LaBr{sub 3}, NaI, etc.). The radiological data collected is used to quantify the activity of hot spots and can also then be entered in 3D models of nuclear plants to simulate intervention scenarios. Recent developments and results will be presented regarding this. Finally, thanks to a large amount of feedback, the interest of using complementary measurements will be discussed. In fact, the recent use of 3D simulation codes requires very accurate knowledge of nuclear plant radiological data. The use of coupled devices such as imaging devices, (gamma and alpha cameras), gamma spectrometry, dose rate mapping, collimated / un-collimated measurements and many other physical values gives an approach to the radiological knowledge of a process or plant with the lowest possible uncertainty. In line with this, the paper will conclude with the future developments and trials that could be assessed in that field of application. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2013

Revealing Occupancy Patterns in Office Buildings Through the use of Annual Occupancy Sensor Data

Energy simulation programs like DOE-2 and EnergyPlus are tools that have been proven to aid with energy calculations to predict energy use in buildings. Some inputs to energy simulation models are relatively easy to find, including building size, orientation, construction materials, and HVAC system size and type. Others vary with time (e.g. weather and occupancy) and some can be a challenge to estimate in order to create an accurate simulation. In this paper, the analysis of occupancy sensor data for a large commercial, multi-tenant office building is presented. It details occupancy diversity factors for private offices and summarizes the same for open offices, hallways, conference rooms, break rooms, and restrooms in order to better inform energy simulation parameters. Long-term data were collected allowing results to be presented to show variations of occupancy diversity factors in private offices for time of day, day of the week, holidays, and month of the year. The diversity factors presented differ as much as 46% from those currently published in ASHRAE 90.1 2004 energy cost method guidelines, a document referenced by energy modelers regarding occupancy diversity factors for simulations. This may result in misleading simulation results and may introduce inefficiencies in the final equipment and systems design.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2013

Revealing Occupancy Patterns in an Office Building through the Use of Occupancy Sensor Data

Energy simulation programs like DOE-2 and EnergyPlus are tools that have been proven to aid with energy calculations to predict energy use in buildings. Some inputs to energy simulation models are relatively easy to find, including building size, orientation, construction materials, and HVAC system size and type. Others vary with time (e.g. weather and occupancy) and some can be a challenge to estimate in order to create an accurate simulation. In this paper, the analysis of occupancy sensor data for a large commercial, multi-tenant office building is presented. It details occupancy diversity factors for private offices and summarizes the same for open offices, hallways, conference rooms, break rooms, and restrooms in order to better inform energy simulation parameters. Long-term data were collected allowing results to be presented to show variations of occupancy diversity factors in private offices for time of day, day of the week, holidays, and month of the year. The diversity factors presented differ as much as 46% from those currently published in ASHRAE 90.1 2004 energy cost method guidelines, a document referenced by energy modelers regarding occupancy diversity factors for simulations. This may result in misleading simulation results and may introduce inefficiencies in the final equipment and systems design.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

ETHOS: An automated framework to generate multi-fidelity constitutive data tables and propagate uncertainties to hydrodynamic simulations

Accurate constitutive data, such as equations of state and plasma transport coefficients, are necessary for reliable hydrodynamic simulations of plasma systems such as fusion targets, planets, and stars. Here, we develop a framework for automatically generating transport-coefficient tables using a parameterized model that incorporates data from both high-fidelity sources (e.g., density functional theory calculations and reference experiments) and lower-fidelity sources (e.g., average-atom and analytic models). The framework incorporates uncertainties from these multi-fidelity sources, generating ensembles of optimally diverse tables that are suitable for uncertainty quantification of hydrodynamic simulations. We illustrate the utility of the framework with magnetohydrodynamic simulations of magnetically launched flyer plates, which are used to measure material properties in pulsed-power experiments. We explore how changes in the uncertainties assigned to the multi-fidelity data sources propagate to changes in simulation outputs and find that our simulations are most sensitive to uncertainties near the melting transition. The presented framework enables computationally efficient uncertainty quantification that readily incorporates new high-fidelity measurements or calculations and identifies plasma regimes where additional data will have high impact.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗