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NASA NTRS2022

Quantifying Errors in 3D CME Parameters Derived From Synthetic Data Using White-Light Reconstruction Techniques

Current efforts in space weather forecasting of CMEs have been focused on predicting their arrival time and magnetic structure. To make these predictions, methods have been developed to derive the true CME speed, size, position, and mass, among others. Difficulties in determining the input parameters for CME forecasting models arise from the lack of direct measurements of the coronal magnetic fields and uncertainties in estimating the CME 3D geometric and kinematic parameters after eruption. White-light coronagraph images are usually employed by a variety of CME reconstruction techniques that assume more or less complex geometries. This is the first study from our International Space Science Institute (ISSI) team “Understanding Our Capabilities in Observing and Modeling Coronal Mass Ejections”, in which we explore how subjectivity affects the 3D CME parameters that are obtained from the Graduated Cylindrical Shell (GCS) reconstruction technique, which is widely used in CME research. To be able to quantify such uncertainties, the “true” values that are being fitted should be known, which are impossible to derive from observational data. We have designed two different synthetic scenarios where the “true” geometric parameters are known in order to quantify such uncertainties for the first time. We explore this by using two sets of synthetic data: 1) Using the ray-tracing option from the GCS model software itself, and 2) Using 3D magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation data from the Magnetohydrodynamic Algorithm outside a Sphere code. Our experiment includes different viewing configurations using single and multiple viewpoints. CME reconstructions using a single viewpoint had the largest errors and error ranges overall for both synthetic GCS and simulated MHD white-light data. As the number of viewpoints increased from one to two, the errors decreased by approximately 4° in latitude, 22° in longitude, 14° in tilt, and 10° in half-angle. Our results quantitatively show the critical need for at least two viewpoints to be able to reduce the uncertainty in deriving CME parameters. We did not find a significant decrease in errors when going from two to three viewpoints for our specific hypothetical three spacecraft scenario using synthetic GCS white-light data. As we expected, considering all configurations and numbers of viewpoints, the mean absolute errors in the measured CME parameters are generally significantly higher in the case of the simulated MHD white-light data compared to those from the synthetic white-light images generated by the GCS model. We found the following CME parameter error bars as a starting point for quantifying the minimum error in CME parameters from white-light reconstructions: Δθ (latitude)=6° +2° -3° , Δϕ (longitude)=11° +18° -6° , Δγ (tilt)=25° +8° -7° , Δx (half-angle)=10° +12° -6° , Δh (height)=0.6 +1.2 -0.4 R ⨀ , and Δκ (ratio)=0.1 +0.03 -0.02 .

Coronal mass ejections↗

DOE OSTI2023

11-th order of accuracy for numerical solution of 3-D Poisson equation with irregular interfaces on unfitted Cartesian meshes

For the first time the optimal local truncation error method (OLTEM) with 125-point stencils and unfitted Cartesian meshes has been developed in the general 3-D case for the Poisson equation for heterogeneous materials with smooth irregular interfaces. The 125-point stencils equations that are similar to those for quadratic finite elements are used for OLTEM. The interface conditions for OLTEM are imposed as constraints at a small number of interface points and do not require the introduction of additional unknowns, i.e., the sparse structure of global discrete equations of OLTEM is the same for homogeneous and heterogeneous materials. The stencils coefficients of OLTEM are calculated by the minimization of the local truncation error of the stencil equations. These derivations include the use of the Poisson equation for the relationship between the different spatial derivatives. Such a procedure provides the maximum possible accuracy of the discrete equations of OLTEM. In contrast to known numerical techniques with quadratic elements and third order of accuracy on conforming and unfitted meshes, OLTEM with the 125-point stencils provides 11-th order of accuracy, i.e., an extremely large increase in accuracy by 8 orders for similar stencils. The numerical results show that OLTEM yields much more accurate results than high-order finite elements with much wider stencils. The increased numerical accuracy of OLTEM leads to an extremely large increase in computational efficiency. Additionally, a new post-processing procedure with the 125-point stencil has been developed for the calculation of the spatial derivatives of the primary function. The post-processing procedure includes the minimization of the local truncation error and the use of the Poisson equation. It is demonstrated that the use of the partial differential equation (PDE) for the 125-point stencils improves the accuracy of the spatial derivatives by 6 orders compared to post-processing without the use of PDE as in existing numerical techniques. At an accuracy of 0.1% for the spatial derivatives, OLTEM reduces the number of degrees of freedom by 900 - 4∙10 6 times compared to quadratic finite elements. The developed post-processing procedure can be easily extended to unstructured meshes and can be independently used with existing post-processing techniques (e.g., with finite elements).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Crystallography companion agent for high-throughput materials discovery

The discovery of new structural and functional materials is driven by phase identification, often using X-ray diffraction (XRD). Automation has accelerated the rate of XRD measurements, greatly outpacing XRD analysis techniques that remain manual, time-consuming, error-prone and impossible to scale. With the advent of autonomous robotic scientists or self-driving laboratories, contemporary techniques prohibit the integration of XRD. Here, we describe a computer program for the autonomous characterization of XRD data, driven by artificial intelligence (AI), for the discovery of new materials. Starting from structural databases, we train an ensemble model using a physically accurate synthetic dataset, which outputs probabilistic classifications—rather than absolutes—to overcome the overconfidence in traditional neural networks. This AI agent behaves as a companion to the researcher, improving accuracy and offering substantial time savings. It is demonstrated on a diverse set of organic and inorganic materials characterization challenges. This method is directly applicable to inverse design approaches and robotic discovery systems, and can be immediately considered for other forms of characterization such as spectroscopy and the pair distribution function.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Active Learning Surrogates for Integrating Electron Microscopy and Computational Insights from Simulations in Autonomous Experiments

Artificial Intelligence (AI) combined with simulations and experiments has great potential to accelerate scientific discovery across technology and pharmaceuticals. However, the gap between simulations and experiments is challenging due to disparities in time and scale, making it difficult to estimate properties like energy and electronic states from experiments, and to provide feedback based on theoretical insights.Our research addresses the challenge by developing unique deep kernel based surrogate models that learns from microscopic images, mapping structural features to energy differences from defect formation. We start with full-training using simulated images to determine optimal settings, establishing a baseline for active learning. Using these settings from the baseline, active learning is trained, and predicts structures along simulation trajectories based on uncertainty and energetic stability, thus reducing data requirements, simulation time and computational costs. The results demonstrate that the model achieves a low average error margin of approximately 0.03 meV, indicating good performance. To enhance feature extraction and reconstruction capabilities, we developed an autoencoder-decoder as additional surrogate to create latent space to capture essential features, enabling precise comparisons between simulations and experiments. The results from this model achieved a reconstruction loss of around 0.2 and accurately reconstructed molecular structures.Overall, this work advances the steering of experiments through computational simulations by employing a surrogate models that actively predicts the trajectories of structural evolution, achieving time-to-solution comparable to experimental measurements.

Saranathan, Gayathri [Hewlett-Packard]↗

NASA NTRS1996

The 27-28 October 1986 FIRE IFO Cirrus Case Study: Cloud Optical Properties Determined by High Spectral Resolution Lidar

During the First ISCCP Region Experiment (FIRE) cirrus intensive field observation (IFO) the High Spectral Resolution Lidar was operated from a roof top site on the University of Wisconsin-Madison campus. Because the HSRL technique separately measures the molecular and cloud particle backscatter components of the lidar return, the optical thickness is determined independent of particle backscatter. This is accomplished by comparing the known molecular density distribution to the observed decrease in molecular backscatter signal with altitude. The particle to molecular backscatter ratio yields calibrated measurements of backscatter cross sections that can be plotted ro reveal cloud morphology without distortion due to attenuation. Changes in cloud particle size, shape, and phase affect the backscatter to extinction ratio (backscatter-phase function). The HSRL independently measures cloud particle backscatter phase function. This paper presents a quantitative analysis of the HSRL cirrus cloud data acquired over an approximate 33 hour period of continuous near zenith observations. Correlations between small scale wind structure and cirrus cloud morphology have been observed. These correlations can bias the range averaging inherent in wind profiling lidars of modest vertical resolution, leading to increased measurement errors at cirrus altitudes. Extended periods of low intensity backscatter were noted between more strongly organized cirrus cloud activity. Optical thicknesses ranging from 0.01-1.4, backscatter phase functions between 0.02-0.065 sr (exp -1) and backscatter cross sections spanning 4 orders of magnitude were observed. the altitude relationship between cloud top and bottom boundaries and the cloud optical center altitude was dependent on the type of formation observed Cirrus features were observed with characteristic wind drift estimated horizontal sizes of 5-400 km. The clouds frequently exhibited cellular structure with vertical to horizontal dimension ratios of 1:5-1:1.

Grund, C. J.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Dynamic analysis of flexible multibody structures

A system composed of several interconnected elastic components that may experience large angular motion relative to each other during operation is referred to as a flexible multibody structure. Several formulations were proposed for the determination of the dynamic response of controlled flexible multibody structures. In general, these formulations consist of superposing elastic deformations of the component body onto the large rigid body motion of the component. It was shown that this particular methodology for combining linear structural deformations with nonlinear kinematics can lead to erroneous response predictions when either the beam member is very flexible or the rotational speed is high. In addition, previous formulations introduce constraint equations to define the interrelations among system components. This approach increases the number of equations that must be solved, and may result in contraint violation when numerical error accumulates during the integration process. In order to overcome the difficulties, a new approach was suggested. The approach is essentially a finite element formulation which takes advantage of the fact that many multibody structures are joint dominated. The Large Angle Transient Dynamic Analysis (LATDYN) program for clarity of documentation, ease of use, user friendliness, modeling generality, and accuracy of results was evaluated. This required gaining a working familiarity with the code and performing several case studies.

Hernried, Alan G.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Multiscale Simulation of Deployable Composite Structures

In this paper, a multiscale simulation method for analyzing deployable composite structures is presented. Effective shell properties of the composites are obtained based on Mechanics of Structure Genome (MSG) homogenization, and then implemented into a user-subroutine UGENS for structural simulation with shell elements in Abaqus. The column bending test(CBT) of a flat thin flexure and lenticular composite boom in a simplified deployer structure are studied for demonstration. A viscoelastic material model with direct integration is adopted in this paper. The CBT simulation shows good agreement with experiments during relaxation, while errors are observed when comparing residual deformation. It is shown that this CBT model can be calibrated to CBT test results. For the lenticular boom analysis, the complete process of flattening, coiling, stowage, deployment and recovery is simulated with the viscoelastic shell model.

Finite element analysis↗

DOE OSTI2024

HPC Network Simulation Tuning via Automatic Extraction of Hardware Parameters

Popular HPC network interconnection simulators such as SST/macro provide a variety of configurable parameters to explore the design space of hardware components such as network interface cards (NIC), switches, and links among them. While such knobs provide flexibility to explore design trade-offs for novel hardware, manually configuring simulations for matching configurations of the existing hardware to focus on topology exploration can be cumbersome and error-prone, leading to widely inaccurate simulations. This challenge is compounded when specifications of various (proprietary) technologies are not readily available or intentionally omitted. In this work, we propose a framework to autotune the multiple network models’ simulation configurations within SST/macro using Tree-structured Parzen Estimator-based Bayesian optimization to observe the effect on simulation accuracy across different message regimes. These regimes consist of small to large message sizes and latency to bandwidth-bound messages. We provide a detailed analysis of the simulation error for four representative HPC systems. Our Bayesian optimization based autotuning framework for network models achieves a maximum of 5x improvement in accuracy over best-effort manual configurations based on available hardware specifications.

Simulation, autotuning↗

DOE OSTI2024

Studying Wind Loading on CSP Collectors to Improve Performance and Reliability

Electricity generation through Concentrating Solar-thermal Power (CSP) adds the advantage of thermal energy storage and heat production. CSP collector costs constitute nearly one-third of total plant costs. Managing wind loading, especially dynamic wind loading caused by the turbulent wind flow, is a significant design challenge. Traditional collector designs rely on wind tunnel experiments and numerical simulations, which do not fully capture dynamic effects. Here, we provide an overview of NREL's activities on wind loading on CSP collectors, aiming to improve their reliability and cost-efficiency. We present insights from field measurements at operational parabolic trough and power-tower CSP plants. Over two years, we measured turbulent wind fields and resulting structural loads in a parabolic trough plant, revealing wind, turbulence, and collector field interactions. Similar measurements are ongoing at the Crescent Dunes heliostat field. These campaigns show how atmospheric turbulence, wind direction, and collector orientation affect dynamic wind loading. Upwind collector structures can generate turbulent structures, causing fluctuating loads at downstream collectors, impacting fatigue lifetime and optical efficiency. Preliminary results indicate that interior collectors experience higher turning moments than those at the edges, suggesting higher drive wear. At Crescent Dunes, we use instrumented heliostats at the field's edge and interior to study the translation of turbulent wind to dynamic structural loads. The campaign is still ongoing, and we will present first findings. Another focus of our work is tying the experimental wind loading findings to optical performance of the collectors, using simulation tools. For example, we derive torsional errors of the parabolic troughs - the angular offset from the sun position along a collector row. This error is impacted by wind-induced mirror deformations. Future work will focus on continuing the measurement efforts and combining them with computational fluid dynamic simulations. By providing detailed field measurements and validated models, our efforts aim to enhance understanding of wind loading on CSP collectors, improving their structural integrity and optical performance.

CSP↗

DOE OSTI2018

Conceptual design of extended magnetic probe set to improve 3D field detection in NSTX-U

Adding toroidal arrays of magnetic probes at the top and bottom of NSTX-U would improve both the detection of the multimodal plasma response to applied magnetic perturbations and the identification of the poloidal structure of unstable plasma modes, as well as contribute to the validation of MHD models, improve the understanding of the plasma response to external fields, and improve the error field correction. In this paper, the linear MHD code MARS-F/K has been used to identify poloidal locations that would improve the capability to measure stationary or near-stationary 3D fields that may result from the plasma response to external sources of non-axisymmetric fields. The study highlighted 6 poloidal positions where new arrays of both poloidal and radial magnetic field sensors would improve the poloidal resolution. Here, the proposed set of new arrays combined with the present ones is shown to be capable of measuring the poloidal structure of perturbations with n ≤ 6 and of detecting the multimodal plasma response. Assessment of the trade-off in the poloidal length of the probes leads to an ideal length between 10 cm and 30 cm. A method to configure the probes of a toroidal array based on the singular value decomposition condition number is proposed, and an ideal solution and a low-cost one are presented.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

NASA NTRS1998

Worst case estimation of homology design by convex analysis

The methodology of homology design is investigated for optimum design of advanced structures. for which the achievement of delicate tasks by the aid of active control system is demanded. The proposed formulation of homology design, based on the finite element sensitivity analysis, necessarily requires the specification of external loadings. The formulation to evaluate the worst case for homology design caused by uncertain fluctuation of loadings is presented by means of the convex model of uncertainty, in which uncertainty variables are assigned to discretized nodal forces and are confined within a conceivable convex hull given as a hyperellipse. The worst case of the distortion from objective homologous deformation is estimated by the Lagrange multiplier method searching the point to maximize the error index on the boundary of the convex hull. The validity of the proposed method is demonstrated in a numerical example using the eleven-bar truss structure.

Yoshikawa, N.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Accounting for erroneous model structures in biokinetic process models

In engineering practice, model-based design requires not only a good process-based model, but also a good description of stochastic disturbances and measurement errors to learn credible parameter values from observations. However, typical methods use Gaussian error models, which often cannot describe the complex temporal patterns of residuals. Consequently, this results in overconfidence in the identified parameters and, in turn, optimistic reactor designs. Here, we assess the strengths and weaknesses of a method to statistically describe these patterns with autocorrelated error models. This method produces increased widths of the credible prediction intervals following the inclusion of the bias term, in turn leading to more conservative design choices. However, we also show that the augmented error model is not a universal tool, as its application cannot guarantee the desired reliability of the resulting wastewater reactor design.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Stress-constrained topology optimization of lattice-like structures using component-wise reduced order models

We report lattice-like structures can provide a combination of high stiffness with light weight that is useful in many applications, but a resolved finite element mesh of such structures results in a computationally expensive discretization. This computational expense may be particularly burdensome in many-query applications, such as optimization. We develop a stress-constrained topology optimization method for lattice-like structures that uses component-wise reduced order models as a cheap surrogate, providing accurate computation of stress fields while greatly reducing run time relative to a full order model. We demonstrate the ability of our method to produce large reductions in mass while respecting a constraint on the maximum stress in a pair of test problems. The ROM methodology provides a speedup of about 150x in forward solves compared to full order static condensation and provides a relative error of less than 5% in the relaxed stress.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1997

Reduction of Maintenance Error Through Focused Interventions

It is well known that a significant proportion of aviation accidents and incidents are tied to human error. In flight operations, research of operational errors has shown that so-called "pilot error" often involves a variety of human factors issues and not a simple lack of individual technical skills. In aircraft maintenance operations, there is similar concern that maintenance errors which may lead to incidents and accidents are related to a large variety of human factors issues. Although maintenance error data and research are limited, industry initiatives involving human factors training in maintenance have become increasingly accepted as one type of maintenance error intervention. Conscientious efforts have been made in re-inventing the "team" concept for maintenance operations and in tailoring programs to fit the needs of technical operations. Nevertheless, there remains a dual challenge: to develop human factors interventions which are directly supported by reliable human error data, and to integrate human factors concepts into the procedures and practices of everyday technical tasks. In this paper, we describe several varieties of human factors interventions and focus on two specific alternatives which target problems related to procedures and practices; namely, 1) structured on-the-job training and 2) procedure re-design. We hope to demonstrate that the key to leveraging the impact of these solutions comes from focused interventions; that is, interventions which are derived from a clear understanding of specific maintenance errors, their operational context and human factors components.

Kanki, Barbara G.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Automated prediction of lattice parameters from X-ray powder diffraction patterns

A key step in the analysis of powder X-ray diffraction (PXRD) data is the accurate determination of unit-cell lattice parameters. This step often requires significant human intervention and is a bottleneck that hinders efforts towards automated analysis. This work develops a series of one-dimensional convolutional neural networks (1D-CNNs) trained to provide lattice parameter estimates for each crystal system. A mean absolute percentage error of approximately 10% is achieved for each crystal system, which corresponds to a 100- to 1000-fold reduction in lattice parameter search space volume. The models learn from nearly one million crystal structures contained within the Inorganic Crystal Structure Database and the Cambridge Structural Database and, due to the nature of these two complimentary databases, the models generalize well across chemistries. A key component of this work is a systematic analysis of the effect of different realistic experimental non-idealities on model performance. It is found that the addition of impurity phases, baseline noise and peak broadening present the greatest challenges to learning, while zero-offset error and random intensity modulations have little effect. However, appropriate data modification schemes can be used to bolster model performance and yield reasonable predictions, even for data which simulate realistic experimental non-idealities. In order to obtain accurate results, a new approach is introduced which uses the initial machine learning estimates with existing iterative whole-pattern refinement schemes to tackle automated unit-cell solution.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2018

Excitation Energies of Localized Correlated Defects via Quantum Monte Carlo: A Case Study of Mn 4+ -Doped Phosphors

Accurate excitation energies of localized defects have been a long-standing problem for electronic structure calculation methods. Using Mn 4+ -doped solids as our proof of principle, we show that diffusion quantum Monte Carlo (DMC) is able to predict phosphorescence emission energies within statistical error. To demonstrate the generality of our DMC approach for other possible localized defects, we conduct charge density analyses using DMC and density functional theory (DFT). We also identify a new material with an emission energy of 1.97(8) eV, which is close to the optimum of 2.03 eV for a red-emitting phosphor. To our knowledge, our work is the first report on studying excitation energies of a transition metal impurity using an ab initio many-body electronic structure method. In contrast, semilocal and hybrid-DFT largely underestimates, and fails to reproduce, some of the trends in the emission energies. In conclusion, our work underscores the importance of an accurate account of exchange, correlation, and excitonic effects for localized excitations in defective solids.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2019

Practical GW scheme for electronic structure of 3 d -transition-metal monoxide anions: ScO - , TiO - , CuO - , and ZnO -

The GW approximation to many-body perturbation theory is a reliable tool for describing charged electronic excitations, and it has been successfully applied to a wide range of extended systems for several decades using a plane-wave basis. However, the GW approximation has been used to test limited spectral properties of a limited set of finite systems (e.g., frontier orbital energies of closed-shell sp molecules) only for about a decade using a local-orbital basis. Here, we calculate the quasiparticle spectra of closed- and open-shell molecular anions with partially and completely filled 3 d shells (shallow and deep 3 d states, respectively), ScO - , TiO - , CuO - , and ZnO - , using various levels of GW theory, and compare them to experiments to evaluate the performance of the GW approximation on the electronic structure of small molecules containing 3 d transition metals. We find that the G -only eigenvalue self-consistent GW scheme with W fixed to the PBE level ($G_nW_0$@PBE), which gives the best compromise between accuracy and efficiency for solids, also gives good results for both localized ( d ) and delocalized ( sp ) states of 3 d -transition-metal oxide molecules. The success of $G_nW_0$@PBE in predicting electronic excitations in these systems reasonably well is likely due to the fortuitous cancellation effect between the overscreening of the Coulomb interaction by PBE and the underscreening by the neglect of vertex corrections. Together with the absence of the self-consistent field convergence error (e.g., spin contamination in open-shell systems) and the GW multisolution issue, the $G_nW_0$@PBE scheme gives the possibility to predict the electronic structure of complex real systems (e.g., molecule-solid and sp-d hybrid systems) accurately and efficiently.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS1993

Development of an unstructured solution adaptive method for the quasi-three-dimensional Euler and Navier-Stokes equations

A general solution adaptive scheme based on a remeshing technique is developed for solving the two-dimensional and quasi-three-dimensional Euler and Favre-averaged Navier-Stokes equations. The numerical scheme is formulated on an unstructured triangular mesh utilizing an edge-based pointer system which defines the edge connectivity of the mesh structure. Jameson's four-stage hybrid Runge-Kutta scheme is used to march the solution in time. The convergence rate is enhanced through the use of local time stepping and implicit residual averaging. As the solution evolves, the mesh is regenerated adaptively using flow field information. Mesh adaptation parameters are evaluated such that an estimated local numerical error is equally distributed over the whole domain. For inviscid flows, the present approach generates a complete unstructured triangular mesh using the advancing front method. For turbulent flows, the approach combines a local highly stretched structured triangular mesh in the boundary layer region with an unstructured mesh in the remaining regions to efficiently resolve the important flow features. One-equation and two-equation turbulence models are incorporated into the present unstructured approach. Results are presented for a wide range of flow problems including two-dimensional multi-element airfoils, two-dimensional cascades, and quasi-three-dimensional cascades. This approach is shown to gain flow resolution in the refined regions while achieving a great reduction in the computational effort and storage requirements since solution points are not wasted in regions where they are not required.

Jiang, Yi-Tsann↗