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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,315 records · Page 73
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Survival analysis of localized prostate cancer with deep learning

In recent years, data-driven, deep-learning-based models have shown great promise in medical risk prediction. By utilizing the large-scale Electronic Health Record data found in the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs, the largest integrated healthcare system in the United States, we have developed an automated, personalized risk prediction model to support the clinical decision-making process for localized prostate cancer patients. This method combines the representative power of deep learning and the analytical interpretability of parametric regression models and can implement both time-dependent and static input data. To collect a comprehensive evaluation of model performances, we calculate time-dependent C-statistics C td over 2-, 5-, and 10-year time horizons using either a composite outcome or prostate cancer mortality as the target event. The composite outcome combines the Prostate-Specific Antigen (PSA) test, metastasis, and prostate cancer mortality. Our longitudinal model Recurrent Deep Survival Machine (RDSM) achieved C td 0.85 (0.83), 0.80 (0.83), and 0.76 (0.81), while the cross-sectional model Deep Survival Machine (DSM) attained C td 0.85 (0.82), 0.80 (0.82), and 0.76 (0.79) for the 2-, 5-, and 10-year composite (mortality) outcomes, respectively. In addition to estimating the survival probability, our method can quantify the uncertainty associated with the prediction. The uncertainty scores show a consistent correlation with the prediction accuracy. We find PSA and prostate cancer stage information are the most important indicators in risk prediction. Our work demonstrates the utility of the data-driven machine learning model in prostate cancer risk prediction, which can play a critical role in the clinical decision system.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Adaptive Data-Driven Model Predictive Control for Heat Pipe Microreactors

To establish a technical basis for self-regulating microreactors, a model predictive control (MPC) system is investigated to proactively respond to anomalies and disturbances in anticipation of potential deviations from operating setpoints. Due to the difficulty of developing a physics-based surrogate model that can accurately match plant data in various operating conditions, machine learning algorithms are used in MPC, which allow for learning from both simulation and operation data, thus efficiently describing the targeted transient with arbitrary accuracy. However, one of the biggest concerns in applying ML algorithms like artificial neural networks (ANNs) is that the predictive capabilities of ANN are limited by training data. If there are gaps between the training and target domain, the accuracy of an ANN can degrade significantly when it is used to predict unseen data. To improve the predictive capability of ANN and enable a confident use of data-driven MPCs outside the training data, this study proposes an adaptive data-driven MPC framework. The system will monitor the discrepancy between plant responses and surrogate predictions, fine-tune the ANN-based surrogate when a large discrepancy is detected, and continue MPC operation with updated surrogates. The framework is demonstrated on a point kinetic model for microreactors. The hyperparameters of the update strategy, including layers to update, error thresholds, learning rate discount, and number of data points used for fine-tuning, are optimized so the simulated microreactor is able to follow changes in setpoint with the smallest of deviations.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Adaptable Data Driven Model Predictive Control for Heat Pipe Microreactors

To establish a technical basis for self-regulating microreactors, a model predictive control (MPC) system is investigated to proactively respond to anomalies and disturbances in anticipation of potential deviations from operating setpoints. Due to the difficulty of developing a physics-based surrogate model that can accurately match plant data in various operating conditions, machine learning algorithms are used in MPC, which allow for learning from both simulation and operation data, thus efficiently describing the targeted transient with arbitrary accuracy. However, one of the biggest concerns in applying ML algorithms like artificial neural networks (ANNs) is that the predictive capabilities of ANN are limited by training data. If there are gaps between the training and target domain, the accuracy of an ANN can degrade significantly when it is used to predict unseen data. To improve the predictive capability of ANN and enable a confident use of data-driven MPCs outside the training data, this study proposes an adaptive data-driven MPC framework. The system will monitor the discrepancy between plant responses and surrogate predictions, fine-tune the ANN-based surrogate when a large discrepancy is detected, and continue MPC operation with updated surrogates. The framework is demonstrated on a point kinetic model for microreactors. The hyperparameters of the update strategy, including layers to update, error thresholds, learning rate discount, and number of data points used for fine-tuning, are optimized so the simulated microreactor is able to follow changes in setpoint with the smallest of deviations.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Short-Term Probabilistic Solar Forecasting via Reinforcement Learning over ECMWF

In this paper, we present an innovative reinforcement learning approach for short-term solar forecasting, leveraging data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The methodology begins with the application of the System Advisor Model (SAM) to transform various ECMWF numerical weather prediction members into predictive photovoltaic power generation. To enhance the precision of deterministic forecasting, we introduce a dynamic model selection algorithm based on Q-learning. This algorithm dynamically identifies and utilizes the most accurate ensemble member for forecasting purposes. Furthermore, we employ a support vector regression surrogate model with a Gaussian distribution to generate probabilistic forecasts, providing a holistic view of solar energy generation uncertainty. To expedite the training process and make it more practical for real-world applications, we integrate a rolling update workflow. This innovative workflow reduces the training period from months to a mere 19 days, making our method highly efficient. Numerical results of the case study show that in comparison to benchmark models, the proposed method improves the deterministic and probabilistic solar forecasting accuracy by up to 40.84% and 48.42%, respectively.

ensemble forecasting↗
DOE OSTI2023

Tree-Based Ensemble Learning Models for Wall Temperature Predictions in Post-Critical Heat Flux Flow Regimes at Subcooled and Low-Quality Conditions

Accurately predicting post-critical heat flux (CHF) heat transfer is an important but challenging task in water-cooled reactor design and safety analysis. Although numerous heat transfer correlations have been developed to predict post-CHF heat transfer, these correlations are only applicable to relatively narrow ranges of flow conditions due to the complex physical nature of the post-CHF heat transfer regimes. In this paper, a large quantity of experimental data is collected and summarized from the literature for steady-state subcooled and low-quality film boiling regimes with water as the working fluid in vertical tubular test sections. In addition, a low-quality water film boiling (LWFB) database is consolidated with a total of 22,813 experimental data points, which cover a wide flow range of the system pressure from 0.1 to 9.0 MPa, mass flux from 25 to 2750 kg/m 2 s, and inlet subcooling from 1 to 70 °C. Two machine learning (ML) models, based on random forest (RF) and gradient boosted decision tree (GBDT), are trained and validated to predict wall temperatures in post-CHF flow regimes. The trained ML models demonstrate significantly improved accuracies compared to conventional empirical correlations. To further evaluate the performance of these two ML models from a statistical perspective, three criteria are investigated and three metrics are calculated to quantitatively assess the accuracy of these two ML models. For the full LWFB database, the root-mean-square errors between the measured and predicted wall temperatures by the GBDT and RF models are 5.7% and 6.2%, respectively, confirming the accuracy of the two ML models.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Machine-Learning-Based High-Resolution Earthquake Catalog Reveals How Complex Fault Structures Were Activated during the 2016–2017 Central Italy Sequence

The 2016–2017 central Italy seismic sequence occurred on an 80 km long normal-fault system. The sequence initiated with the Mw 6.0 Amatrice event on 24 August 2016, followed by the Mw 5.9 Visso event on 26 October and the Mw 6.5 Norcia event on 30 October. We analyze continuous data from a dense network of 139 seismic stations to build a high-precision catalog of ~900,000 earthquakes spanning a 1 yr period, based on arrival times derived using a deep-neural-network-based picker. Our catalog contains an order of magnitude more events than the catalog routinely produced by the local earthquake monitoring agency. Aftershock activity reveals the geometry of complex fault structures activated during the earthquake sequence and provides additional insights into the potential factors controlling the development of the largest events. Activated fault structures in the northern and southern regions appear complementary to faults activated during the 1997 Colfiorito and 2009 L’Aquila sequences, suggesting that earthquake triggering primarily occurs on critically stressed faults. Delineated major fault zones are relatively thick compared to estimated earthquake location uncertainties, and a large number of kilometer-long faults and diffuse seismicity were activated during the sequence. These properties might be related to fault age, roughness, and the complexity of inherited structures. The rich details resolvable in this catalog will facilitate continued investigation of this energetic and well-recorded earthquake sequence.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

HPC Analytics of Fused Thermal Plants Data to Optimize Operating Envelope

In this project, ORNL extensively reviewed the ORAP RAM data, and it guided us to develop machine learning models that can predict time to next failures and forecast failure trends, which will be useful for optimizing power plant operation strategies. More specifically, we trained multiple random forest models and evaluated the model accuracy to validate with 10+ years of historical data. In addition, we implemented a web-based graphical user interface system for the models to show how our models can be used in more intuitive ways. This proof of concept allowed exploration of model use with power plant operators in mind. Developed machine learning models will be helpful for managing risks, planning maintenance and operation, ultimately reducing the down time and increasing the service hours. For future work, there are several interesting research topics including but not limited to model enhancement, creating synergy with traditional failure modeling approaches, and data-driven actionable recommendation and suggestions.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
NASA NTRS1988

AI and simulation: What can they learn from each other

Simulation and Artificial Intelligence share a fertile common ground both from a practical and from a conceptual point of view. Strengths and weaknesses of both Knowledge Based System and Modeling and Simulation are examined and three types of systems that combine the strengths of both technologies are discussed. These types of systems are a practical starting point, however, the real strengths of both technologies will be exploited only when they are combined in a common knowledge representation paradigm. From an even deeper conceptual point of view, one might even argue that the ability to reason from a set of facts (i.e., Expert System) is less representative of human reasoning than the ability to make a model of the world, change it as required, and derive conclusions about the expected behavior of world entities. This is a fundamental problem in AI, and Modeling Theory can contribute to its solution. The application of Knowledge Engineering technology to a Distributed Processing Network Simulator (DPNS) is discussed.

Colombano, Silvano P.↗
DOE OSTI2020

An Edge-Cloud Integrated Solution for Buildings Demand Response Using Reinforcement Learning

Buildings, as major energy consumers, can provide great untapped demand response (DR) resources for grid services. However, their participation remains low in real-life. One major impediment for popularizing DR in buildings is the lack of cost-effective automation systems that can be widely adopted. Existing optimization-based smart building control algorithms suffer from high costs on both building-specific modeling and on-demand computing resources. To tackle these issues, this paper proposes a cost-effective edge-cloud integrated solution using reinforcement learning (RL). Beside RL’s ability to solve sequential optimal decision-making problems, its adaptability to easy-to-obtain building models and the off-line learning feature are likely to reduce the controller’s implementation cost. Using a surrogate building model learned automatically from building operation data, an RL agent learns an optimal control policy on cloud infrastructure, and the policy is then distributed to edge devices for execution. Simulation results demonstrate the control efficacy and the learning efficiency in buildings of different sizes. A preliminary cost analysis on a 4-zone commercial building shows the annual cost for optimal policy training is only 2.25% of the DR incentive received. Results of this study show a possible approach with higher return on investment for buildings to participate in DR programs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Environmentally Assisted Fatigue in Light Water Reactor Environment

This report summarizes the Environmentally Assisted Fatigue (EAF) research conducted at ANL under the US DOE Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program. Starting from a rich background in theoretical and experimental EAF, ANL previously developed an approach to evaluate fatigue performance of reactor materials in light water reactor environments with the correction factor F en . The approach was based on a large body of experimental work performed at ANL and elsewhere, and was consistent with American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME)’s methodology governing the design and construction of reactor components. In recent years, the program was focused on component fatigue prediction and made several major and fundamental contributions in this area. These accomplishments help meet the needs identified by the industry concerning component level fatigue predictions in complex, transient conditions. The main contribution of the ANL program involved the development of a system-level model for estimating residual strain and life of nuclear reactor coolant system components under connected-system-thermal-mechanical boundary conditions. The goal was to predict the stress hotspots, strain residuals, strain amplitudes and the resulting fatigue lives. Thermal-mechanical stress analysis was performed considering thermal stratification and a design-basis reactor loading cycle. Based on the finite element (FE) model results, the strain residuals, strain amplitudes and resulting fatigue lives of reactor coolant system (RCS) components were predicted. The results show that some of the RCS components can have significantly different strain amplitudes, residual strain, and fatigue lives, despite having similar geometry and material. In addition, the simulated component-level strain profile can guide the selection of appropriate test inputs for conducting laboratory-scale EAF tests. Building upon the system-level model, ANL developed a digital twin (DT) framework to predict the structural states and associated fatigue life of components in real-time. This framework is a comprehensive system designed to predict the structural states and fatigue lives of reactor components. It includes multiple models and integrates artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning (ML), and FE based modeling tools to evaluate the structural states and fatigue lives.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

DRAS: Deep Reinforcement Learning for Cluster Scheduling in High Performance Computing

Cluster schedulers are crucial in high-performance computing (HPC). They determine when and which user jobs should be allocated to available system resources. Existing cluster scheduling heuristics are developed by human experts based on their experience with specific HPC systems and workloads. However, the increasing complexity of computing systems and the highly dynamic nature of application workloads have placed tremendous burden on manually designed and tuned scheduling heuristics. More aggressive optimization and automation are needed for cluster scheduling in HPC. In this work, we present an automated HPC scheduling agent named DRAS (Deep Reinforcement Agent for Scheduling) by leveraging deep reinforcement learning. DRAS is built on a hierarchical neural network incorporating special HPC scheduling features such as resource reservation and backfilling. An efficient training strategy is presented to enable DRAS to rapidly learn the target environment. Once being provided a specific scheduling objective given by the system manager, DRAS automatically learns to improve its policy through interaction with the scheduling environment and dynamically adjusts its policy as workload changes. We implement DRAS into a HPC scheduling platform called CQGym. CQGym provides a common platform allowing users to flexibly evaluate DRAS and other scheduling methods such as heuristic and optimization methods. Furthermore, the experiments using CQGym with different production workloads demonstrate that DRAS outperforms the existing heuristic and optimization approaches by up to 50%.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Anomaly Detection and Identification Using a Leave-One-Variable-Out Method

At nuclear power plants (NPPs), anomaly detection and identification (i.e., determining the causes of anomalies) are important tasks for ensuring the safe and efficient operation of NPPs. These tasks are currently labor-intensive and costly, and are made more difficult by the size and complexity of NPP systems. An alternative approach to conducting these tasks is to automate them, such as via the reconstruction-based contribution method, which is a well-researched unsupervised machine learning method that uses a data-driven model of anomaly-free behavior to detect events and then identify each variable’s contributions to those events. The present effort developed a novel contribution approach that utilized a leave-one-variable-out (LOVO) model, with which each variable is predicted using all the other variables. The novelty lay in transforming this model into a reconstruction model and modifying the identification algorithm to work with the new reconstruction model. To evaluate this method in a controlled environment, a synthetic dataset based on spring-mass-damper (SMD) systems (commonly found in mechanical engineering references) was used, with known anomalies introduced into the system. The proposed method successfully detected the anomalies and afforded insights into their causes, thus enabling the appropriate identifications to be made.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
NASA NTRS2018

Differential Adaptive Stress Testing of Airborne Collision Avoidance Systems

The next-generation Airborne Collision Avoidance System (ACAS X) is currently being developed and tested to replace the Traffic Alert and Collision Avoidance System (TCAS) as the next international standard for collision avoidance. To validate the safety of the system, stress testing in simulation is one of several approaches for analyzing near mid-air collisions (NMACs). Understanding how NMACs can occur is important for characterizing risk and informingdevelopment of the system. Recently, adaptive stress testing (AST) has been proposed as a way to find the most likely path to a failure event. The simulation-based approach accelerates search by formulating stress testing as a sequential decision process then optimizing it using reinforcement learning. The approach has been successfully applied to stress test a prototype of ACAS Xin various simulated aircraft encounters. In some applications, we are not as interestedin the system's absolute performance as its performance relative to another system. Such situations arise, for example, during regression testing or when deciding whether a new system should replace an existing system. In our collision avoidance application, we are interested in finding cases where ACAS X fails but TCAS succeeds in resolving a conflict. Existing approaches do not provide an efficient means to perform this type of analysis. This paper extends the AST approach to differential analysis by searching two simulators simultaneously and maximizing the difference between their outcomes. We call this approach differential adaptive stress testing (DAST). We apply DAST to compare a prototype of ACAS X against TCAS and show examples of encounters found by the algorithm.

Lee, Ritchie↗
DOE OSTI2026

Safe Deep Reinforcement Learning for Active Distribution System Model Predictive Control with EVs and DERs

The temporal and spatial mismatch between PV generation and electric vehicle (EV) charging and discharging may cause voltage violations in active distribution networks. Despite the widespread use of deep reinforcement learning (DRL) in power system optimization and control, it lacks guarantees on constraint satisfaction during both training and deployment. This paper proposes a Lagrangian-based safe DRL approach for model predictive control (MPC) of active distribution systems with large-scale integration of PVs, EVs, and energy storage systems (ESSs). A Transformer-LSTM time-series model is proposed to forecast EV charging demand, which is then formulated as a constraint to ensure charging requirements are met. Using this prediction, a Lagrangian-based safe soft actor-critic (SAC) framework is developed for real-time control in a three-phase unbalanced distribution system, enforcing voltage safety constraints while optimizing the cumulative net reward. By integrating the forecasting model with multi-period constraints, the proposed framework jointly coordinates PV systems, EV charging and discharging, and ESS scheduling within the MPC horizon. Numerical experiments on a modified IEEE 123-bus system with real-world data show that, under a high PV penetration scenario, the proposed method increases the net reward by 30.74% and reduces average voltage violations from 0.0011 p.u. to 0.0002 p.u. compared with standard SAC. Compared with the optimal power flow (OPF) approach, it achieves similar voltage security while yielding lower line losses. It also maintains real-time control capability, reducing operation latency to 53.21 ms per 15-minute control interval. The proposed method remains effective under varying PV/EV penetrations and load conditions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

In Situ UV–vis Quantification of Chlorobasicity in Binary Molten Chlorides

Optical basicity measurements provide a basis for determining the relative chlorobasicity of a given molten salt composition. This study uses Bi3+ as a spectroscopic probe to investigate optical basicity across three binary molten chloride systems (LiCl-KCl, MgCl2–KCl, and ZnCl2–KCl) through in situ UV–vis spectroscopy measurements of the 1S0→3P1 transition. LiCl-KCl systems exhibit the highest optical basicity with minimal compositional dependence, while both divalent systems show stronger, yet nonlinear, dependence that is reminiscent of acid–base titration curves. The influence of cation electronegativity and polarizing power (Li+ < Mg2+ < Zn2+) directly reflects the basicity curves, with ZnCl2–KCl displaying the steepest gradients and lowest basicity values. Nonlinear dependencies in divalent systems indicate formation of chloride-bridged network structures with coordination states dictated by the amount of KCl in a salt composition, which was further investigated and validated by molecular dynamics simulations of polymeric structures formed in ZnCl2 and MgCl2-based salts using machine learning force fields. The temperature dependence of chlorobasicity in terms of optical basicity was investigated, and a loose, positive correlation between the two was revealed. These findings establish Bi3+ as a sensitive probe for understanding electronic environments in molten chloride systems and provide insights for predicting the chemical behavior of molten salts for use in high-temperature environments.

Buttice, Kailee [Department of Nuclear Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2021

Restoring Critical Loads in Resilient Distribution Systems Using a Curriculum Learned Controller: Preprint

In this paper, we propose a curriculum learned reinforcement learning (RL) controller to facilitate distribution system critical load restoration (CLR), leveraging RL's fast online response and its outstanding optimal sequential control capability. Like many grid control problems, CLR is complicated due to the large control action space and renewable uncertainty in a heavily constrained non-linear environment with strong intertemporal dependency. The nature of the problem oftentimes causes the RL policy to converge to a poor-performing local optimum if learned directly. To overcome this, we design a two-stage curriculum in which the RL agent will learn generation control and load restoration decision under different scenarios progressively. Via curriculum learning, the trained RL controller is expected to achieve a better control performance, with critical loads restored as rapidly and reliably as possible. Using the IEEE 13-bus test system, we illustrate the performance of the RL controller trained by the proposed curriculum-based method.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Learning with Delayed Rewards—A Case Study on Inverse Defect Design in 2D Materials

Defect dynamics in materials are of central importance to a broad range of technologies from catalysis to energy storage systems to microelectronics. Material functionality depends strongly on the nature and organization of defects-their arrangements often involve intermediate or transient states that present a high barrier for transformation. The lack of knowledge of these intermediate states and the presence of this energy barrier presents a serious challenge for inverse defect design, especially for gradient-based approaches. Here, we present a reinforcement learning (RL) [Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS)] based on delayed rewards that allow for efficient search of the defect configurational space and allows us to identify optimal defect arrangements in low-dimensional materials. Using a representative case of two-dimensional MoS 2 , we demonstrate that the use of delayed rewards allows us to efficiently sample the defect configurational space and overcome the energy barrier for a wide range of defect concentrations (from 1.5 to 8% S vacancies)-the system evolves from an initial randomly distributed S vacancies to one with extended S line defects consistent with previous experimental studies. Detailed analysis in the feature space allows us to identify the optimal pathways for this defect transformation and arrangement. Comparison with other global optimization schemes like genetic algorithms suggests that the MCTS with delayed rewards takes fewer evaluations and arrives at a better quality of the solution. The implications of the various sampled defect configurations on the 2H to 1T phase transitions in MoS 2 are discussed. In this study, we introduce a RL strategy employing delayed rewards that can accelerate the inverse design of defects in materials for achieving targeted functionality.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Hybrid (PDE+ML) models in the context of land ice modeling

Focal Area(s): Primary focal areas are: predictive modeling through the use of AI-derived model components; advanced methods including network design/optimization/deep learning. Science Challenge: The atmospheric, ocean and ice dynamics components of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) are governed by Partial Differential Equations (PDEs) and significant efforts have been made during the last decades to develop such computational models. Here we propose to fundamentally improve these PDE-based codes by enhancing them with Machine Learning (ML) sub-models for complex, poorly understood physical processes in the context of ice sheet modeling. We propose to train these models with a novel approach that allows the assimilation of the different sources of data available (direct/indirect observations and possibly simulation data), improving on existing simplified models. We also highlight computational challenges originating from the coexistence of PDE-based and ML-based models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗