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At least 1,315 records · Page 73

A NEW METHOD FOR FINDING POINT SOURCES IN HIGH-ENERGY NEUTRINO DATA

The IceCube collaboration has reported the first detection of high-energy astrophysical neutrinos, including ∼50 high-energy starting events, but no individual sources have been identified. It is therefore important to develop the most sensitive and efficient possible algorithms to identify the point sources of these neutrinos. The most popular current method works by exploring a dense grid of possible directions to individual sources, and identifying the single direction with the maximum probability of having produced multiple detected neutrinos. This method has numerous strengths, but it is computationally intensive and because it focuses on the single best location for a point source, additional point sources are not included in the evidence. We propose a new maximum likelihood method that uses the angular separations between all pairs of neutrinos in the data. Unlike existing autocorrelation methods for this type of analysis, which also use angular separations between neutrino pairs, our method incorporates information about the point-spread function and can identify individual point sources. We find that if the angular resolution is a few degrees or better, then this approach reduces both false positive and false negative errors compared to the current method, and is also more computationally efficient up to, potentially, hundreds of thousands of detected neutrinos.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A Fast, Two-dimensional Gaussian Process Method Based on Celerite: Applications to Transiting Exoplanet Discovery and Characterization

Gaussian processes (GPs) are commonly used as a model of stochastic variability in astrophysical time series. In particular, GPs are frequently employed to account for correlated stellar variability in planetary transit light curves. The efficient application of GPs to light curves containing thousands to tens of thousands of data points has been made possible by recent advances in GP methods, including the celerite method. Here we present an extension of the celerite method to two input dimensions where, typically, the second dimension is small. This method scales linearly with the total number of data points when the noise in each large dimension is proportional to the same celerite kernel and only the amplitude of the correlated noise varies in the second dimension. We demonstrate the application of this method to the problem of measuring precise transit parameters from multiwavelength light curves and show that it has the potential to improve transit parameters measurements by orders of magnitude. Applications of this method include transit spectroscopy and exomoon detection, as well a broader set of astronomical problems.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Methods for Incorporating Model Uncertainty into Exoplanet Atmospheric Analysis

A key goal of exoplanet spectroscopy is to measure atmospheric properties, such as abundances of chemical species, in order to connect them to our understanding of atmospheric physics and planet formation. In this new era of high-quality JWST data, it is paramount that these measurement methods are robust. When comparing atmospheric models to observations, multiple candidate models may produce reasonable fits to the data. Typically, conclusions are reached by selecting the best-performing model according to some metric. This ignores model uncertainty in favor of specific model assumptions, potentially leading to measured atmospheric properties that are overconfident and/or incorrect. In this paper, we compare three ensemble methods for addressing model uncertainty by combining posterior distributions from multiple analyses: Bayesian model averaging, a variant of Bayesian model averaging using leave-one-out predictive densities, and stacking of predictive distributions. We demonstrate these methods by fitting the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) + Spitzer transmission spectrum of the hot Jupiter HD 209458b using models with different cloud and haze prescriptions. All of our ensemble methods lead to uncertainties on retrieved parameters that are larger but more realistic and consistent with physical and chemical expectations. Since they have not typically accounted for model uncertainty, uncertainties of retrieved parameters from HST spectra have likely been underreported. We recommend stacking as the most robust model combination method. Our methods can be used to combine results from independent retrieval codes and from different models within one code. They are also widely applicable to other exoplanet analysis processes, such as combining results from different data reductions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A Comparative study of two RVE modelling methods for chopped carbon fiber SMC

To achieve vehicle light-weighting, the chopped carbon fiber sheet molding compound (SMC) is identified as a promising material to replace metals. However, there are no effective tools and methods to predict the mechanical property of the chopped carbon fiber SMC due to the high complexity in microstructure features and the anisotropic properties. In this paper, the Representative Volume Element (RVE) approach is used to model the SMC microstructure. Two modeling methods, the Voronoi diagram-based method and the chip packing method, are developed for material RVE property prediction. The two methods are compared in terms of the predicted elastic modulus and the predicted results are validated using the Digital Image Correlation (DIC) tensile test results. Furthermore, the advantages and shortcomings of these two methods are discussed in terms of the required input information and the convenience of use in the integrated processing-microstructure-property analysis.

mesostructure reconstruction↗

Impacts of Biofuel Blending on MCCI Ignition Delay with Review of Methods for Defining Cycle-by-Cycle Ignition Points from Noisy Cylinder Pressure Data

Conventional diesel combustion, also known as Mixing-Controlled Compression Ignition (MCCI), is expected to be the primary power source for medium- and heavy-duty vehicles for decades to come. Displacing petroleum-based ultra-low-sulfur diesel (ULSD) as much as possible with low-net-carbon biofuels will become necessary to help mitigate effects on climate change. Neat biofuels may have difficulty meeting current diesel fuel standards but blends of 30% biofuel in ULSD show potential as ‘drop-in’ fuels. These blends must not make significant changes to the combustion phasing of the MCCI process if they are to be used interchangeably with neat ULSD. An important aspect of MCCI phasing is the ignition delay (ID), i.e. the time between the start of fuel injection and the initial premixed autoignition that initiates the MCCI process. Bench experiments can evaluate the expected ignition delay of a fuel via cetane number (CN) or alternative methods such as the indicated cetane number (ICN); however, neither CN nor ICN correlate perfectly with the ignition delay measured in actual engine experiments. Furthermore, there is no standardized methodology on how to quantify MCCI ignition delay from engine cylinder pressure measurements, creating difficulties in cross-study comparison. In this study, several engine ignition delay calculation methods are evaluated for robustness in deriving ignition delay on both a cycle-averaged and cycle-to-cycle basis. Eight biofuel blends with varying ICN, oxygen concentration and other fuel properties were used to study the different methods. This yields a thorough analysis of how certain biofuel blends affect ignition delay and the entire MCCI process, as well as a thorough evaluation of the differences between the ID calculation methods. Many of these methods are equally valid, but the choice of method has a significant impact on the resulting ID, which must be carefully considered when evaluating results across multiple studies.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

A semi-Lagrangian method for detecting and tracking deep convective clouds in geostationary satellite observations

Automated methods for the detection and tracking of deep convective clouds in geostationary satellite imagery have a vital role in both the forecasting of severe storms and research into their behaviour. Studying the interactions and feedbacks between multiple deep convective clouds (DCC), however, poses a challenge for existing algorithms due to the necessary compromise between false detection and missed detection errors. We utilise an optical flow method to determine the motion of deep convective clouds in GOES-16 ABI imagery in order to construct a semi-Lagrangian framework for the motion of the cloud field, independently of the detection and tracking of cloud objects. The semi-Lagrangian framework allows severe storms to be simultaneously detected and tracked in both spatial and temporal dimensions. For the purpose of this framework we have developed a novel Lagrangian convolution method and a number of novel implementations of morphological image operations that account for the motion of observed objects. These novel methods allow the accurate extension of computer vision techniques to the temporal domain for moving objects such as DCCs. By combining this framework with existing methods for detecting DCCs (including detection of growing cores through cloud top cooling and detection of anvil clouds using brightness temperature), we show that the novel framework enables reductions in errors due to both false and missed detections compared to any of the individual methods, reducing the need to compromise when compared with existing frameworks. The novel framework enables the continuous tracking of anvil clouds associated with detected deep convection after convective activity has stopped, enabling the study of the entire life cycle of DCCs and their associated anvils. Furthermore, we expect this framework to be applicable to a wide range of cases including the detection and tracking of low-level clouds and other atmospheric phenomena. In addition, this framework may be used to combine observations from multiple sources, including satellite observations, weather radar and reanalysis model data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Adaptive stratified importance sampling: hybridization of extrapolation and importance sampling Monte Carlo methods for estimation of wind turbine extreme loads

Wind turbine extreme load estimation is especially difficult because turbulent inflow drives nonlinear turbine physics and control strategies; thus there can be huge differences in turbine response to essentially equivalent environmental conditions. The two main current approaches, extrapolation and Monte Carlo sampling, are both unsatisfying: extrapolation-based methods are dangerous because by definition they make predictions outside the range of available data, but Monte Carlo methods converge too slowly to routinely reach the desired 50-year return period estimates. Thus a search for a better method is warranted. We introduce an adaptive stratified importance sampling approach that allows for treating the choice of environmental conditions at which to run simulations as a stochastic optimization problem that minimizes the variance of unbiased estimates of extreme loads. Furthermore, the framework, built on the traditional bin-based approach used in extrapolation methods, provides a close connection between sampling and extrapolation, and thus allows the solution of the stochastic optimization (i.e., the optimal distribution of simulations in different wind speed bins) to guide and recalibrate the extrapolation. Results show that indeed this is a promising approach, as the variance of both the Monte Carlo and extrapolation estimates are reduced quickly by the adaptive procedure. We conclude, however, that due to the extreme response variability in turbine loads to the same environmental conditions, our method and any similar method quickly reaches its fundamental limits, and that therefore our efforts going forward are best spent elucidating the underlying causes of the response variability.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Progress in Development of Methods in Bone Densitometry

The effects of weightlessness and decreased activity on the astronaut's musculoskeletal system during prolonged space flight, missions are of concern to NASA. This problem was anticipated from the knowledge that human subjects lose significant quantities of calcium from the skeleton during periods of bedrest, immobilization, and water immersion. An accurate method of measurement of the changes in mineral content of the skeleton is required not only in the space program but also in the biological, medical, and dental fields for mineral metabolism studies and for studying various pathological conditions of the skeleton and teeth. This method is a difficult one requiring the coordinated efforts of physiologists, biophysicists, radiologists, and clinicians. The densitometry methods reported in this conference which have been used or are being developed include X-ray, beta excited X-rays, radioisotopes, sonic vibration, and neutron activation analysis Studies in the Gemini, Biosatellite, and Apollo flights use the X-ray bone densitometry method which requires making X-rays before and after the flights. An in-flight method of bone densitometry would be valuable, and use of radioisotope sources has been suggested. Many advances in bone densitometry have been made in the last five years, and the urgency of the requirement makes this working conference timely and valuable. In such a rapidly developing field with investigators working independently in a variety of scientific disciplines, a working conference is of great value in exchanging information and ideas, critically evaluating approaches and methods, and pointing out new research pathways.

DENSITOMETER↗

A survey of methods of feasible directions for the solution of optimal control problems

Three methods of feasible directions for optimal control are reviewed. These methods are an extension of the Frank-Wolfe method, a dual method devised by Pironneau and Polack, and a Zontendijk method. The categories of continuous optimal control problems are shown as: (1) fixed time problems with fixed initial state, free terminal state, and simple constraints on the control; (2) fixed time problems with inequality constraints on both the initial and the terminal state and no control constraints; (3) free time problems with inequality constraints on the initial and terminal states and simple constraints on the control; and (4) fixed time problems with inequality state space contraints and constraints on the control. The nonlinear programming algorithms are derived for each of the methods in its associated category.

Polak, E.↗

The computation of optimal control programmes using a modified successive sweep method.

A second-order method for numerically solving control optimization problems has been developed. The method, referred to as the modified sweep method (MSM), differs from the successive sweep method (SSM) proposed by McReynolds and Bryson (1965) in that the conditions for local control optimality are used to determine the control as an explicit function of the state variables and time. The control is eliminated from the problem and the solution to the resulting two-point boundary value problem can be obtained by linear perturbation methods. The modified sweep method proposed here uncouples the perturbation equations for the state variables and the Lagrange multipliers by using a generalized matrix-Riccati transformation of variables. The resulting algorithm for the numerical iteration process is concerned with determining the initial values of a set of Lagrange multipliers rather than correcting a numerical control programme over the entire time interval of interest.

Colunga, D.↗

A generalized method for the identification of aircraft stability and control derivatives from flight test data.

This paper discusses the application of a generalized identification method for flight test data analysis. The method is based on the maximum likelihood (ML) criterion and includes output error and equation error methods as special cases. Both the linear and nonlinear models with and without process noise are considered. The flight test data from lateral maneuvers of HL-10 and M2/F3 lifting bodies are processed to determine the lateral stability and control derivatives, instrumentation accuracies and biases. A comparison is made between the results of the output error method and the generalized ML method for M2/F3 data containing gusts. It is shown that better fits to time histories are obtained by using the generalized ML method.

Mehra, R. K.↗

Feasibility study of the numerical integration of shell equations using the field method

The field method is developed for arbitrary open branch domains subjected to general linear boundary conditions. Although closed branches are within the scope of the method, they are not treated here. The numerical feasibility of the method has been demonstrated by implementing it in a computer program for the linear static analysis of open branch shells of revolution under asymmetric loads. For such problems the field method eliminates the well-known numerical problem of long subintervals associated with the rapid growth of extraneous solutions. Also, the method appears to execute significantly faster than other numerical integration methods.

Cohen, G. A.↗

Detection of fatigue cracks by nondestructive testing methods

The effectiveness was assessed of various NDT methods to detect small tight cracks by randomly introducing fatigue cracks into aluminum sheets. The study included optimizing NDT methods calibrating NDT equipment with fatigue cracked standards, and evaluating a number of cracked specimens by the optimized NDT methods. The evaluations were conducted by highly trained personnel, provided with detailed procedures, in order to minimize the effects of human variability. These personnel performed the NDT on the test specimens without knowledge of the flaw locations and reported on the flaws detected. The performance of these tests was measured by comparing the flaws detected against the flaws present. The principal NDT methods utilized were radiographic, ultrasonic, penetrant, and eddy current. Holographic interferometry, acoustic emission monitoring, and replication methods were also applied on a reduced number of specimens. Generally, the best performance was shown by eddy current, ultrasonic, penetrant and holographic tests. Etching provided no measurable improvement, while proof loading improved flaw detectability. Data are shown that quantify the performances of the NDT methods applied.

Anderson, R. T.↗

Application of the generalized Galerkin method to the computation of fluid flows.

The purpose of this paper is to show that most existing methods for the calculation of fluid flows can be interpreted as special applications of a single mathematical formalism. This formalism, called the generalized Galerkin method, then provides a single conceptual framework for comparing various methods in terms of convergence and accuracy. The method is presented in sufficient mathematical detail to permit its interpretation as a projection in function space. In order to demonstrate the basic thesis, finite difference, finite element, strip integral, and classical integral methods of boundary layer theory are developed by application of the method.

Murphy, J. D.↗

New methods for the numerical integration of ordinary differential equations and their application to the equations of motion of spacecraft

A number of hybrid methods for solving Cauchy problems are described on the basis of an evaluation of advantages of single and multiple-point numerical integration methods. The selection criterion is the principle of minimizing computer time. The methods discussed include the Nordsieck method, the Bulirsch-Stoer extrapolation method, and the method of recursive Taylor-Steffensen power series.

Banyukevich, A.↗

Computer analysis of multicircuit shells of revolution by the field method

The field method, presented previously for the solution of even-order linear boundary value problems defined on one-dimensional open branch domains, is extended to boundary value problems defined on one-dimensional domains containing circuits. This method converts the boundary value problem into two successive numerically stable initial value problems, which may be solved by standard forward integration techniques. In addition, a new method for the treatment of singular boundary conditions is presented. This method, which amounts to a partial interchange of the roles of force and displacement variables, is problem independent with respect to both accuracy and speed of execution. This method was implemented in a computer program to calculate the static response of ring stiffened orthotropic multicircuit shells of revolution to asymmetric loads. Solutions are presented for sample problems which illustrate the accuracy and efficiency of the method.

Cohen, G. A.↗

Aircraft digital control design methods

Variations in design methods for aircraft digital flight control are evaluated and compared. The methods fall into two categories; those where the design is done in the continuous domain (or s plane) and those where the design is done in the discrete domain (or z plane). Design method fidelity is evaluated by examining closed loop root movement and the frequency response of the discretely controlled continuous aircraft. It was found that all methods provided acceptable performance for sample rates greater than 10 cps except the uncompensated s plane design method which was acceptable above 20 cps. A design procedure based on optimal control methods was proposed that provided the best fidelity at very slow sample rates and required no design iterations for changing sample rates.

Powell, J. D.↗

Conservation properties of numerical integration methods for systems of ordinary differential equations

If a system of ordinary differential equations represents a property conserving system that can be expressed linearly (e.g., conservation of mass), it is then desirable that the numerical integration method used conserve the same quantity. It is shown that both linear multistep methods and Runge-Kutta methods are 'conservative' and that Newton-type methods used to solve the implicit equations preserve the inherent conservation of the numerical method. It is further shown that a method used by several authors is not conservative.

Rosenbaum, J. S.↗