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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Sea-level rise in Southwest Greenland as a contributor to Viking abandonment

The first records of Greenland Vikings date to 985 CE. Archaeological evidence yields insight into how Vikings lived, yet drivers of their disappearance in the 15th century remain enigmatic. Research suggests a combination of environmental and socioeconomic factors, and the climatic shift from the Medieval Warm Period (~900 to 1250 CE) to the Little Ice Age (~1250 to 1900 CE) may have forced them to abandon Greenland. Glacial geomorphology and paleoclimate research suggest that the Southern Greenland Ice Sheet readvanced during Viking occupation, peaking in the Little Ice Age. Counterintuitively, the readvance caused sea-level rise near the ice margin due to increased gravitational attraction toward the ice sheet and crustal subsidence. We estimate ice growth in Southwestern Greenland using geomorphological indicators and lake core data from previous literature. We calculate the effect of ice growth on regional sea level by applying our ice history to a geophysical model of sea level with a resolution of ~1 km across Southwestern Greenland and compare the results to archaeological evidence. The results indicate that sea level rose up to ~3.3 m outside the glaciation zone during Viking settlement, producing shoreline retreat of hundreds of meters. Sea-level rise was progressive and encompassed the entire Eastern Settlement. Moreover, pervasive flooding would have forced abandonment of many coastal sites. These processes likely contributed to the suite of vulnerabilities that led to Viking abandonment of Greenland. Sea-level change thus represents an integral, missing element of the Viking story.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Eight new luminous z ≥ 6 quasars discovered via SED model fitting of VISTA, WISE and Dark Energy Survey Year 1 observations

We present the discovery and spectroscopic confirmation with the ESO NTT and Gemini South telescopes of eight new 6.0 < z < 6.5 quasars with z$_{AB}$ < 21.0. These quasars were photometrically selected without any star-galaxy morphological criteria from 1533 deg$^{2}$ using SED model fitting to photometric data from the Dark Energy Survey (g, r, i, z, Y), the VISTA Hemisphere Survey (J, H, K) and the Wide-Field Infrared Survey Explorer (W1, W2). The photometric data was fitted with a grid of quasar model SEDs with redshift dependent Lyman-{\alpha} forest absorption and a range of intrinsic reddening as well as a series of low mass cool star models. Candidates were ranked using on a SED-model based $\chi^{2}$-statistic, which is extendable to other future imaging surveys (e.g. LSST, Euclid). Our spectral confirmation success rate is 100% without the need for follow-up photometric observations as used in other studies of this type. Combined with automatic removal of the main types of non-astrophysical contaminants the method allows large data sets to be processed without human intervention and without being over run by spurious false candidates. We also present a robust parametric redshift estimating technique that gives comparable accuracy to MgII and CO based redshift estimators. We find two z $\sim$ 6.2 quasars with HII near zone sizes < 3 proper Mpc which could indicate that these quasars may be young with ages < 10$^6$ - 10$^7$ years or lie in over dense regions of the IGM. The z = 6.5 quasar VDESJ0224-4711 has J$_{AB}$ = 19.75 is the second most luminous quasar known with z > 6.5.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Sap flux measurements in wet tropical forests: unique challenges and opportunities

Tropical rainforests often have great tree species and functional diversity, complex age and stand structure, deep active sapwood, and potential factors that reduce transpiration, such as frequent cloud cover and wet leaves. Such factors generate challenges for estimating transpiration from sap flux measurements. In fact, upscaling approaches have rarely been attempted for diverse tropical forests. Thus, the objective of this paper is to build upon past efforts to scale transpiration and optimize strategies for wet tropical forests. Over a five-year period, we instrumented 44 trees with heat dissipation sap flow sensors within a premontane wet tropical rainforest in Costa Rica (5000 mm MAP). Given high diversity, few instrumented trees belonged to the same species, genus, or even family. In a subset of trees, radial profiles across the full range of active xylem were examined. Measurements were scaled to the stand in two plots using sapwood area. In association with extensive micrometeorological measurements, only ~10% of rainfall was transpired from this forested watershed due to persistent low radiation, evaporative demand, and frequent wet canopy conditions. Contrary to temperate trees, we observed minimal flow reductions in deeper sapwood among the largest trees, whose water use amounted to nearly 80% of the total stand water use, even though they contributed less than 15% to total stand basal area. We found that transpiration was suppressed when leaves were wet, even after accounting for lower vapor pressure deficit and reduced solar radiation. Since soil moisture conditions at this site remain continually above deficit levels, flow reversal has been assumed to be minor and thus has not yet been investigated. The driest month on record resulted in higher, not lower transpiration. Given the high diversity of these forests, herein we propose practical and innovate approaches to group trees by function or degree of canopy exposure. Finally, these efforts are critical for accurate scaling of measurements from individual sensors to stands and for improving global land surface models that increasingly partition canopy components to better represent these functionally and structurally diverse ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Absolute Dimensions of the Eccentric Eclipsing Binary V541 Cygni

We report new spectroscopic and photometric observations of the main-sequence, detached, eccentric, double-lined eclipsing binary V541 Cyg (P = 15.34 days, e = 0.468). Using these observations together with existing measurements, we determine the component masses and radii to better than 1% precision: M{sub 1}=2.335{sub −0.013}{sup +0.017} M{sub ⊙}, M{sub 2}=2.260{sub −0.013}{sup +0.016} M{sub ⊙}, R{sub 1}=1.859{sub −0.009}{sup +0.012} R{sub ⊙}, and R{sub 2}=1.808{sub −0.013}{sup +0.015} R{sub ⊙}. The nearly identical B9.5 stars have estimated effective temperatures of 10650 ± 200 K and 10350 ± 200 K. A comparison of these properties with current stellar evolution models shows excellent agreement at an age of about 190 Myr and [Fe/H] ≈ −0.18. Both components are found to be rotating at the pseudo-synchronous rate. The system displays a slow periastron advance that is dominated by general relativity (GR), and has previously been claimed to be slower than predicted by theory. Our new measurement, ω-dot =0.859{sub −0.017}{sup +0.042} deg century{sup −1}, has an 88% contribution from GR and agrees with the expected rate within the uncertainties. We also clarify the use of the gravity darkening coefficients in the light-curve fitting Eclipsing Binary Orbit Program (EBOP), a version of which we use here.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Velocity Dispersion, Size, Sérsic Index, and D{sub n}4000: The Scaling of Stellar Mass with Dynamical Mass for Quiescent Galaxies

We examine the relation between stellar mass, velocity dispersion, size, Sérsic index, and D{sub n}4000 for a volume-limited sample of ∼40,000 quiescent galaxies in the SDSS. At a fixed stellar mass, galaxies with higher D{sub n}4000 have larger velocity dispersions and smaller sizes. D{sub n}4000 is a proxy for stellar population age, thus these trends suggest that older galaxies typically have larger velocity dispersions and smaller sizes. We combine velocity dispersion and size into a dynamical mass estimator, σ{sup 2}R. At a fixed stellar mass, σ{sup 2}R depends on D{sub n}4000. The Sérsic index is also correlated with D{sub n}4000. The dependence of σ{sup 2}R and Sérsic index on D{sub n}4000 suggests that quiescent galaxies are not structurally homologous systems. We derive an empirical correction for non-homology which is consistent with the analytical correction derived from the virial theorem. After accounting for non-homologous galactic structure, we measure M{sub ∗}∝M{sub d}{sup 0.998±0.004}, where M {sub *} is the stellar mass and M {sub d} is the dynamical mass derived from the velocity dispersion and size; stellar mass is directly proportional to dynamical mass. Quiescent galaxies appear to be in approximate virial equilibrium, and deviations of the fundamental plane parameters from the expected virial relation may result from mass-to-light ratio variations, selection effects, and the non-homology of quiescent galaxies. We infer the redshift evolution of velocity dispersion and size for galaxies in our sample assuming purely passive evolution. The inferred evolution is inconsistent with direct measurements at higher redshifts. Thus quiescent galaxies do not passively evolve. Quiescent galaxies have properties that are consistent with standard galaxy formation in ΛCDM. They form at different epochs and evolve modestly, increasing their size, velocity dispersion, and Sérsic index after they cease star formation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Optimizing stadium evacuation by integrating geocomputation and affordance theory

Football is culturally and economically important in the United States, and football stadiums are part of the country's critical infrastructure, thus receiving government protection against hazard events. In this project, an agent-based evacuation model was implemented to optimize evacuation time from The University of Southern Mississippi's M.M. Roberts Stadium (football) by accounting for evacuees’ age, gender, physical fitness, alcohol consumption, and prior experience with hazard events. The findings revealed that (i) the age and gender of an individual impact his/her locomotion speed and (ii) evacuation route choice is influenced by evacuees’ perception of its safety and effectiveness. The estimated evacuation times for all evacuees to exit only the stadium and the stadium plus the surrounding campus were 20.82 and 165.01 minutes, respectively. Both of these times were shorter than the evacuation times determined by models employing location-unspecific locomotion speeds. One-way analysis of variance revealed that there were statistically significant differences between use of location-specific and location-unspecific within-stadium evacuation times (p ≤ 0.001 with α = 0.05). These results suggest that using local data is vital to accurately estimate evacuation time.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
NASA NTRS1977

Turbulent viscosity and Jupiter's tidal Q

A recent estimate of tidal dissipation by turbulent viscosity in Jupiter's convective interior predicts that the current value of the planet's tidal Q is roughly 5 million. We point out a fundamental error in this calculation, and show that turbulent dissipation alone implies that at present Q is about 50 trillion. Our reduced estimate for the rate of tidal dissipation shows conclusively that tidal torques have produced only negligible modifications of the orbits of the Galilean satellites over the age of the solar system.

Goldreich, P.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Towards a theory for Neptune's arc rings

It is proposed that the incomplete rings of Neptune consist of a number of short arcs centered on the corotation resonances of a single satellite. The satellite must have a radius of the order of 100 km or more and move on an inclined orbit. Corotation resonances are located at potential maxima. Thus, mechanical energy dissipated by interparticle collisions must be continually replenished to prevent the arcs from spreading. It is shown that each corotation resonance is associated with a nearby Lindblad resonance, which excites the ring particles' orbital eccentricity, thus supplying the energy required to maintain the arc. The ultimate energy reservoir is the satellite's orbital energy. Therefore, interaction with the arcs damps the satellite's orbital inclination. The self-gravity of the arcs limits their contraction and enforces a relation between arc length and mass. The estimated arc masses are so small, of the order of 10 to the 16th g, that the satellite's orbital inclination suffers negligible decay over the age of the solar system. The inferred surface mass densities are comparable to those found in the major rings of Saturn and Uranus.

Goldreich, P.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Tropical forest biomass and successional age class relationships to a vegetation index derived from Landsat TM data

Forest stand structure and biomass data were collected using conventional forest inventory techniques in tropical, subtropical, and warm temperate forest biomes. The feasibility of detecting tropical forest successional age class and total biomass differences using Landsat-Thematic mapper (TM) data, was evaluated. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) calculated from Landsat-TM data were not significantly correlated with forest regeneration age classes in the mountain terrain of the Luquillo Experimental Forest, Puerto Rico. The low sun angle and shadows cast on steep north and west facing slopes reduced spectral reflectance values recorded by TM orbital altitude. The NDVI, calculated from low altitude aircraft scanner data, was significatly correlated with forest age classes. However, analysis of variance suggested that NDVI differences were not detectable for successional forests older than approximately 15-20 years. Also, biomass differences in young successional tropical forest were not detectable using the NDVI. The vegetation index does not appear to be a good predictor of stand structure variables (e.g., height, diameter of main stem) or total biomass in uneven age, mixed broadleaf forest. Good correlation between the vegetation index and low biomass in even age pine plantations were achieved for a warm temperate study site. The implications of the study for the use of NDVI for forest structure and biomass estimation are discussed.

Sader, Steven A.↗
NASA NTRS1995

The formation of protostellar disks. 2: Disks around intermediate-mass stars

Hydrodynamical calculations of the evolution of a collapsing, rotating axisymmetric 10 solar masses molecular clump, including the effects of radiative acceleration but without magnetic fields, are represented. The initial cloud is assumed to be uniformly rotating, centrally condensed sphere with rho is proportional to r(exp -2). Several cases are considered, in which both the overall clump size and the total amount of angular momentum are varied. The calculations show how a warm, quasi-hydrostatic disk surrounding a central unresolved core of only a few solar masses forms and grows in size and mass. The disk is encased in two distinct accretion shock fronts, both of which are several scale heights above the equatorial plane. At the end of the calculation of our standard case, the central unresolved region is found to have a mass of 2.7 solar masses and a ratio of rotational to gravitational energy of approximately 0.45, sufficiently large to be unstable to nonaxisymmetric perturbations. In addition, the inner portions of the disk containing most of the mass are unstable according to the local Toomre criterion, implying that also in this region nonaxisymmetric perturbations will lead to rapid evolution. Under the assumption that gravitational torques would transport angular momentum out of this region, a central core of less than or approximately 8 solar masses with a stable disk of greater than or approximately = 2 solar masses should result. Frequency-dependent radiative transfer calculations of the standard case at selected ages show how the continuum spectrum of the structure depends on the disk's orientation and age and how the observed isophotal contours vary with wavelength. Because of the strong dependence on viewing angle, continuum spectra alone should not be used to estimate the evolutionary stage of development of these objects. Comparable results were obtained for the other cases considered.

Yorke, Harold W.↗
NASA NTRS1998

The Problem of Hipparcos Distances to Open Clusters: Constraints from Multicolor a Main-Sequence Fitting - Report 1

Parallax data from the Hipparcos mission allow the direct distance to open clusters to be compared with the distance inferred from main-sequence (MS) fitting. There are surprising differences between the two distance measurements. indicating either the need for changes in the cluster compositions or reddening, underlying problems with the technique of MS fitting, or systematic errors in the Hipparcos parallaxes at the 1 mas level. We examine the different possibilities, focusing on MS fitting in both metallicity-sensitive B-V and metallicity-insensitive V-I for five well-studied systems (the Hyades, Pleiades, alpha Per, Praesepe, and Coma Ber). The Hipparcos distances to the Hyades and alpha Per are within 1 sigma of the MS-fitting distance in B-V and V-I, while the Hipparcos distances to Coma Ber and the Pleiades are in disagreement with the MS-fitting distance at more than the 3 sigma level. There are two Hipparcos measurements of the distance to Praesepe; one is in good agreement with the MS-fitting distance and the other disagrees at the 2 sigma level. The distance estimates from the different colors are in conflict with one another for Coma but in agreement for the Pleiades. Changes in the relative cluster metal abundances, age related effects, helium, and reddening are shown to be unlikely to explain the puzzling behavior of the Pleiades. We present evidence for spatially dependent systematic errors at the 1 mas level in the parallaxes of Pleiades stars. The implications of this result are discussed.

Pinsonneault, Marc H.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Cratering Rates in the Outer Solar System

We use several independent constraints on the number of ecliptic comets (aka JFCs) to determine impact cratering rates from Jupiter to Pluto. Long period comets and asteroids are currently unimportant on most worlds at most sizes. The size- number distribution of comets smaller than 20 km is inferred from size-number distributions of impact craters on Europa, Ganymede, and Triton; while the size- number distribution of comets bigger than 50 km is equated to the size-number distribution of Kuiper Belt Objects. The gap is bridged by interpolation. It is notable that small craters on Jupiter's moons indicate a pronounced paucity of small impactors, while small craters on Triton imply a collisional population rich in small bodies. However it is unclear whether the craters on Triton are of heliocentric or planetocentric origin. We therefore consider two cases for Saturn and beyond: a Case A in which the size-number distribution is like that inferred at Jupiter, and a Case B in which small objects obey a more nearly collisional distribution. Known craters on Saturnian and Uranian satellites are consistent with either Case, although surface ages are much younger in Case B, especially at Saturn and Uranus. At Neptune and especially at Saturn our cratering rates are much higher than rates estimated by Shoemaker and colleagues, presumably because Shoemaker's estimates mostly predate discovery of the Kuiper Belt. We also estimate collisional disruption rates of moons and compare these to estimates in the literature .

Zahnle, K.↗
NASA NTRS2011

A Chandra X-Ray Survey of Ejecta in the Cassiopeia A Supernova Remnant

We present a survey of the X-ray emitting ejecta in the Cassiopeia A supernova remnant based on an extensive analysis of over 6000 spectral regions extracted on 2.5-10" angular scales using the Chandra 1 Ms observation. We interpret these results in the context of hydrodynamical models for the evolution of the remnant. The distributions of fitted temperature and ionization age are highly peaked and suggest that the ejecta were subjected to multiple secondary shocks. Based on the fitted emission measure and element abundances, and an estimate of the emitting volume, we derive masses for the X-ray emitting ejecta as well as showing the distribution of the mass of various elements over the remnant. The total shocked Fe mass appears to be roughly 0.14 Solar Mass, which accounts for nearly all of the mass expected in Fe ejecta. We find two populations of Fe ejecta, that associated with normal Si-burning and that associated with alpha-rich freeze-out, with a mass ratio of approximately 2:1. Surprisingly, essentially all of this Fe (both components) is well outside the central regions of the SNR, presumably having been ejected by hydrodynamic instabilities during the explosion. We discuss this, and its implications for the neutron star kick.

Hwang, Una↗
NASA NTRS2013

Constraints on the Composition and Evolution of the Lunar Crust from Meteorite NWA 3163

The lunar meteorite NWA 3163 (paired with NWA 4881, 4483) is a ferroan, feldspathic granulitic breccia characterized by pigeonite, augite, olivine, maskelynite and accessory Tichromite, ilmenite and troilite. Bulk rock geochemical signatures indicate the lack of a KREEP- derived component (Eu/Eu* = 3.47), consistent with previously studied lunar granulites and anorthosites. Bulk rock chondrite-normalized signatures are however distinct from the anorthosites and granulites sampled by Apollo missions and are relatively REE-depleted. In-situ analyses of maskelynite reveal little variation in anorthite content (average An% is 96.9 +/- 1.6, 2 sigma). Olivine is relatively ferroan and exhibits very little variation in forsterite content with mean Fo% of 57.7 +/- 2.0 (2 sigma). The majority of pyroxene is low-Ca pigeonite (En57Fs33Wo10). Augite (En46Fs21Wo33) is less common, comprising approximately 10% of analyzed pyroxene. Two pyroxene thermometry on co-existing orthopyroxene and augite yield an equilibrium temperature of 1070C which is in reasonable agreement with temperatures of 1096C estimated from pigeonite compositions. Rb-Sr isotopic systematics of separated fractions yield an average measured Sr-87/Sr-87 of 0.699282+/-0.000007 (2 sigma). Sr model ages are calculated using a modern day Sr-87/Sr-86 Basaltic Achondrite Best Initial (BABI) value of 0.70475, from an initial BABI value Sr-87/Sr-86 of 0.69891 and a corresponding Rb-87/Sr-97 of 0.08716. The Sr model Thermomechanical analysis (TMA) age, which represents the time of separation of a melt from a source reservoir having chondritic evolution, is 4.56+/-0.1 Ga. A Sr model T(sub RD) age, which is a Rb depletion age and assumes no contribution from Rb in the sample in the calculation, yields 4.34+/-0.1 Ga (i.e. a minimum age). The Ar-Ar dating of paired meteorite NWA 4881 reveals an age of c. 2 Ga, likely representing the last thermal event this meteorite experienced. An older Ar-40/Ar-39 age of c. 3.5 Ga may record the thermal event which produced the granulitic texture. Additional chronological constraints will be provided by Sm-Nd systematics. Ferroan Anorthosites like NWA 3163 have been interpreted to represent direct lunar magma ocean (LMO) crystallization products. If this is the case, trace element concentrations in NWA 3163 primary mineral phases should be in equilibrium with residual LMO liquids present during crystallization of those phases. Results from petrogenetic modeling suggest that the NWA 3163 protolith did not form from crystallization of an initially LREE depleted LMO but rather require an initially chondritic LMO with early garnet crystallization. Furthermore, a two-stage crystallization model where plagioclase crystalized prior to pyroxene (93% vs. 99.5% of LMO crystallization) is implied.

McLeod, C. L.↗
DOE OSTI2019

Comprehensive analysis of technical efficiency of business establishments in Santa Barbara County: Evaluation of spatial and aspatial stochastic frontier models

One of the main objectives of land-use and transport models is to accurately describe the organization and composition of the regional economy. However, these models currently lack the integration of competitiveness and performance of the regional economy, which in-turn is dependent on performance and efficiency of business establishments in the region. In this study, we present a framework that integrates the aspects of economic efficiency of business establishments within the context of land-use and transport models. For this purpose, we comprehensively assess the impacts of both internal and external attributes of business establishment on its efficiency. In this process, we specifically focus on aspects of incorporating locational characteristics using two frameworks - (a) measuring locational attributes using link-based multiple centrality indicators (L-MCI) and (b) measuring neighborhood effects of business establishments through spatial proximity that account for co-location and competition. We make use of the stochastic frontier modeling framework to investigate the factors impacting business establishment-level output measured as sales per unit area. Specifically, the aspatial stochastic frontier (ASF) model incorporates L-MCI measures as covariates and the spatial stochastic frontier (SSF) model incorporates neighborhood effects of business establishments through network distance measured using the roadway network for Santa Barbara County.Overall, the empirical results suggest that there exist significant inefficiencies across all business establishment types that are mainly impacted by internal attributes of the business. For example, larger and older business establishments are more efficient than business establishments that are smaller in size and younger in age. Furthermore, the results also suggest that locational impacts are better captured using the ASF specification when compared with SSF specification. For instance, the spatial correlation estimate (from SSF) although statistically significant, is very weak. Thereby, indicating a lack of spatial structure in technical efficiency of businesses manifested in the form of co-location and competition. In contrast, the ASF model captures spatial structure of technical efficiency thoroughly with inclusion of the L-MCI measures. This indicates that L-MCI measures have varying levels of impact on efficiency (positive or negative) depending on its relative location in the region. For instance, retail trade businesses have higher levels of revenue (or sales per unit area) when located along links in a grid-network like structure e.g. downtown areas. Additionally, businesses in professional services have no impact on their efficiency based on the configuration and structure of the regional transportation network. However, results from both specifications indicate that there exist major benefits on efficiency of business establishments from local competition for retail trade and healthcare services.

Ravulaparthy, Srinath↗
DOE OSTI2014

The impact of heatwaves on workers' health and safety in Adelaide, South Australia

This study aims to investigate the impact of heatwaves on worker's health and safety; to identify workers at higher risk of prevalent illnesses and injuries due to heatwaves; and to provide evidence for policy-makers and service providers. South Australian workers' compensation claims data for 2001–2010 were transformed into time series format, merged with meteorological data and analysed using generalized estimating equation (GEE) models. For total injury claims there was no significant difference detected between heatwave and non-heatwave periods. However, for outdoor industries, daily claims increased significantly by 6.2% during heatwaves. Over-represented in hot weather were male labourers and tradespersons aged ≥55 years, and those employed in ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’ and ‘electricity, gas and water’. Occupational burns, wounds, lacerations, and amputations as well as heat illnesses were significantly associated with heatwaves. Similarly, moving objects, contact with chemicals, and injuries related to environmental factors increased significantly during heatwaves, especially among middle-aged and older male workers. With the predicted increase of extremely hot weather, there is a need for relevant adaptation and prevention measures at both practice and policy levels for vulnerable work groups. - Highlights: • We investigate the impacts of heatwaves on workers' health and safety. • We identify workers at higher risk of illnesses and injuries during heatwaves. • The differences between two heatwave definitions on effect estimates are compared. • Daily injury claims for outdoor industries increased by 6.2% during heatwaves. • Relevant heat prevention measures are required for vulnerable workers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1972

Apollo 14 mineral ages and the thermal history of the Fra Mauro formation.

The thermal inertia of the Fra Mauro formation limits its rate of cooling. The calculations of Jaeger (1961) for the cooling of an extrusive sheet are used to estimate the time required for a central temperature drop of 10%. This time is found to be about 45 years. For a 90% temperature drop, the time is about 200 years. Analytical methods used in the investigations are discussed together with the diffusion of Rb and Sr within lunar basalt. Isochron diagrams for various minerals are presented.

Compston, W.↗
DOE OSTI2014

VISION Model Description and User's Guide: Model Used to Estimate the Impacts of Highway Vehicle Technologies and Fuels on Energy Use and Carbon Emissions to 2100

The VISION model has been developed by the US Department of Energy (DOE) to provide estimates of the potential energy use, oil use, and carbon emission impacts to the year 2100 of advanced light- and heavy-duty highway vehicle technologies and alternative fuels. DOE supports research of advanced transportation technologies (including fuels) and is frequently asked to provide estimates of the potential impacts of successful market penetration of these technologies, sometimes on a relatively-quick turnaround basis. VISION is a spreadsheet model that was created in Microsoft Excel® that can be used to respond rapidly to quick-turnaround requests, as well as for longer-term analyses. It uses vehicle survival and age-dependent usage characteristics to project total light- and heavy-truck stock, total vehicle miles traveled (VMT), and total energy use by technology and fuel type by year, given market penetration and vehicle energy efficiency assumptions developed exogenously. Total carbon emissions for on-highway vehicles by year are also estimated because life-cycle carbon coefficients for various fuels are included in VISION. VISION is not a substitute for the transportation component of the US Energy Information Administration’s (EIA’s) National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). NEMS incorporates a consumer choice model to project market penetration of advanced vehicles and alternative fuels. The projections are made within the context of the entire US economy. However, the NEMS model requires more time to execute and only makes projections to 2040. VISION complements NEMS with its relative ease of use and by extending the time frame of potential analysis beyond 2040. VISION has been used for a wide variety of purposes. For illustration, we have listed some of its most recent and current uses in Table 1. Figures 1 through 4 illustrate the results of some of those runs. These graphs are not actual model outputs, but they are based on model results. Aside from these, the National Petroleum Council and National Academies used VISION in their recent scenario studies. The original VISION model description and user guide were written in 2004 and 2006, respectively. Since then, the VISION model has been upgraded with new features and functions. Based on the previous two documents, this report describes the 2013 version including all of the new features that have been added since 2006. The main body of this report describes VISION’s methodology and data sources. The methodology and data sources used in the light- and heavy-vehicle portions of the model are discussed separately. Some suggestions for future improvements to the model are made.

Zhou, Yan↗