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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,333 records · Page 74
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2014

Disease mapping based on stochastic SIR-SI model for Dengue and Chikungunya in Malaysia

This paper describes and demonstrates a method for relative risk estimation which is based on the stochastic SIR-SI vector-borne infectious disease transmission model specifically for Dengue and Chikungunya diseases in Malaysia. Firstly, the common compartmental model for vector-borne infectious disease transmission called the SIR-SI model (susceptible-infective-recovered for human populations; susceptible-infective for vector populations) is presented. This is followed by the explanations on the stochastic SIR-SI model which involve the Bayesian description. This stochastic model then is used in the relative risk formulation in order to obtain the posterior relative risk estimation. Then, this relative estimation model is demonstrated using Dengue and Chikungunya data of Malaysia. The viruses of these diseases are transmitted by the same type of female vector mosquito named Aedes Aegypti and Aedes Albopictus. Finally, the findings of the analysis of relative risk estimation for both Dengue and Chikungunya diseases are presented, compared and displayed in graphs and maps. The distribution from risk maps show the high and low risk area of Dengue and Chikungunya diseases occurrence. This map can be used as a tool for the prevention and control strategies for both diseases.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Deeply uncertain: comparing methods of uncertainty quantification in deep learning algorithms

We present a comparison of methods for uncertainty quantification (UQ) in deep learning algorithms in the context of a simple physical system. Three of the most common uncertainty quantification methods - Bayesian Neural Networks (BNN), Concrete Dropout (CD), and Deep Ensembles (DE) - are compared to the standard analytic error propagation. We discuss this comparison in terms endemic to both machine learning ("epistemic" and "aleatoric") and the physical sciences ("statistical" and "systematic"). The comparisons are presented in terms of simulated experimental measurements of a single pendulum - a prototypical physical system for studying measurement and analysis techniques. Our results highlight some pitfalls that may occur when using these UQ methods. For example, when the variation of noise in the training set is small, all methods predicted the same relative uncertainty independently of the inputs. This issue is particularly hard to avoid in BNN. On the other hand, when the test set contains samples far from the training distribution, we found that no methods sufficiently increased the uncertainties associated to their predictions. This problem was particularly clear for CD. In light of these results, we make some recommendations for usage and interpretation of UQ methods.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2010

Reference priors for high energy physics

Bayesian inferences in high energy physics often use uniform prior distributions for parameters about which little or no information is available before data are collected. The resulting posterior distributions are therefore sensitive to the choice of parametrization for the problem and may even be improper if this choice is not carefully considered. Here we describe an extensively tested methodology, known as reference analysis, which allows one to construct parametrization-invariant priors that embody the notion of minimal informativeness in a mathematically well-defined sense. We apply this methodology to general cross section measurements and show that it yields sensible results. A recent measurement of the single-top quark cross section illustrates the relevant techniques in a realistic situation.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Comparing Automated Posterior Estimation Techniques for Modeling Strong Lenses In Ground-based Survey Data

Current and future ground-based cosmological surveys, such as the Dark Energy Survey (DES), and the Vera Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), are predicted to discover thousands to tens of thousands of strong gravitational lenses. The large number of strong lenses discoverable in future surveys will make strong lensing a highly competitive and complementary cosmic probe. However, conventional lens modeling techniques are unable to scale up to the sheer number of lenses that will be discovered through upcoming surveys. Therefore, the use of automated lens analysis techniques is necessary. We demonstrate that machine learning methods can be used to automate the inference of informative model posteriors of strong lensing systems in ground-based surveys with credible uncertainty estimation. We present two Simulation-Based Inference (SBI) approaches for lens parameter estimation of galaxy-galaxy lenses. We demonstrate applications of Neural Posteriors Estima tors (NPEs) and Bayesian Neural Network (BNNs) to automate the inference of a 12-parameter lensing system for DES-like ground-based imaging data. We apply a suite of diagnostics (e.g., posterior coverage and SBC) to validate the performance of our methods. We find that NPEs outperform the BNN, producing posterior distributions that are for the most part both more accurate and more precise; in particular, several source-light model parameters are systematically biased in the BNN implementation.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Constraining Physical Models at Gigabar Pressures

High-energy-density (HED) experiments in convergent geometry are able to test physical models at pressures beyond hundreds of millions of atmospheres. The measurements from these experiments are generally highly integrated and require unique analysis techniques to procure quantitative information. This work describes a methodology to constrain the physics in convergent HED experiments by adapting the methods common to many other fields of physics. As an example, a mechanical model of an imploding shell is constrained by data from a thin-shelled direct-drive exploding-pusher experiment on the OMEGA Laser System using Bayesian inference, resulting in the reconstruction of the shell dynamics and energy transfer during the implosion. The model is tested by analyzing synthetic data from a 1-D hydrodynamics code and is sampled using a Markov chain Monte Carlo to generate the posterior distributions of the model parameters. The goal of this work is to demonstrate a general methodology that can be used to draw conclusions from a wide variety of HED experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Bayes goes fast: Uncertainty quantification for a covariant energy density functional emulated by the reduced basis method

A covariant energy density functional is calibrated using a principled Bayesian statistical framework informed by experimental binding energies and charge radii of several magic and semi-magic nuclei. The Bayesian sampling required for the calibration is enabled by the emulation of the high-fidelity model through the implementation of a reduced basis method (RBM)—a set of dimensionality reduction techniques that can speed up demanding calculations involving partial differential equations by several orders of magnitude. The RBM emulator we build—using only 100 evaluations of the high-fidelity model—is able to accurately reproduce the model calculations in tens of milliseconds on a personal computer, an increase in speed of nearly a factor of 3,300 when compared to the original solver. Besides the analysis of the posterior distribution of parameters, we present model calculations for masses and radii with properly estimated uncertainties. We also analyze the model correlation between the slope of the symmetry energy L and the neutron skin of 48 Ca and 208 Pb. The straightforward implementation and outstanding performance of the RBM makes it an ideal tool for assisting the nuclear theory community in providing reliable estimates with properly quantified uncertainties of physical observables. Such uncertainty quantification tools will become essential given the expected abundance of data from the recently inaugurated and future experimental and observational facilities.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Runtime Analysis with R2U2: A Tool Exhibition Report

We present R2U2 (Realizable, Responsive, Unobtrusive Unit), a hardware- supported tool and framework for the continuous monitoring of safetycritical and embedded cyber-physical systems.With the widespread advent of autonomous systems such as Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS), satellites, rovers, and cars, real-time, on-board decision making requires unobtrusive monitoring of properties for safety, performance, security, and system health. R2U2 models combine past-time and future-time Metric Temporal Logic, “mission time” Linear Temporal Logic, probabilistic reasoning with Bayesian Networks, and modelbased prognostics. The R2U2 monitoring engine can be instantiated as a hardware solution, running on an FPGA, or as a software component. The FPGA realization enables R2U2 to monitor complex cyber-physical systems without any overhead or instrumentation of the flight software. In this tool exhibition report, we present R2U2 and demonstrate applications on system runtime monitoring, diagnostics, software health management, and security monitoring for a UAS. Our tool demonstration uses a hardware-based processor-in-the-loop “iron-bird” configuration.

Johann Martin Schumann↗
DOE OSTI2019

Time-resolved x-ray crystallography capture of a slow reaction tetrahydrofolate intermediate

Time-resolved crystallography is a powerful technique to elucidate molecular mechanisms at both spatial (angstroms) and temporal (picoseconds to seconds) resolutions. We recently discovered an unusually slow reaction at room temperature that occurs on the order of days: the in crystalline reverse oxidative decay of the chemically labile (6S)-5,6,7,8-tetrahydrofolate in complex with its producing enzyme Escherichia coli dihydrofolate reductase. Here, we report the critical analysis of a representative dataset at an intermediate reaction time point. A quinonoid-like intermediate state lying between tetrahydrofolate and dihydrofolate features a near coplanar geometry of the bicyclic pterin moiety, and a tetrahedral sp 3 C6 geometry is proposed based on the apparent mFo-DFc omit electron densities of the ligand. The presence of this intermediate is strongly supported by Bayesian difference refinement. Isomorphous Fo-Fo difference map and multi-state refinement analyses suggest the presence of end-state ligand populations as well, although the putative intermediate state is likely the most populated. A similar quinonoid intermediate previously proposed to transiently exist during the oxidation of tetrahydrofolate was confirmed by polarography and UV-vis spectroscopy to be relatively stable in the oxidation of its close analog tetrahydropterin. We postulate that the constraints on the ligand imposed by the interactions with the protein environment might be the origin of the slow reaction observed by time-resolved crystallography.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Experimental inference of neutral and impurity transport in Alcator C-Mod using high-resolution x-ray and ultra-violet spectra

We present experimental inferences of cross-field impurity transport coefficients for AlcatorC-Mod plasmas without edge-localized modes, leveraging a novel forward model for the entire Ca Kα spectrum, including satellite lines within the spectral range, to compare to high-resolution x-ray imaging crystal spectroscopy (XICS). These measurements are complemented by extreme ultra-violet (EUV) spectroscopy that constrains transport closer to the edge. Using new atomic data sets for both XICS and EUV analysis has enabled consideration of line ratios across both spectral ranges and has increased the accuracy of inferred transport coefficients. Inclusion of charge exchange between edge thermal neutrals and impurities is shown to be extremely important in C-Mod pedestals. Atomic D neutral densities from experimental D Lyα measurements at the midplane are compared to SOLPS-ITER simulations, finding good agreement. Bayesian inferences of impurity transport coefficients are presented for L-, EDA H-, and I-mode discharges, making use of the Aurora package for forward modeling and combining our spectroscopic constraints. Experimentally inferred diffusion profiles are found to match turbulent transport models at midradius within uncertainties, using both quasilinear gyro-fluid TGLF SAT-1 and nonlinear ion-scale gyrokinetic CGYRO simulations. Furthermore, significant discrepancies in convection are observed in some cases, suggesting difficulties in predictions of flat or hollow impurity profiles.

neutrals↗
DOE OSTI2020

Constraining physical models at gigabar pressures

High-energy-density (HED) experiments in convergent geometry are able to test physical models at pressures beyond hundreds of millions of atmospheres. The measurements from these experiments are generally highly integrated and require unique analysis techniques to procure quantitative infor mation. This work describes a methodology to constrain the physics in convergent HED experiments by adapting the methods common to many other fields of physics. As an example, a mechanical model of an imploding shell is constrained by data from a thin-shelled direct-drive exploding-pusher experiment on the OMEGA Laser System using Bayesian inference, resulting in the reconstruction of the shell dynamics and energy transfer during the implosion. The model is tested by analyzing synthetic data from a 1-D hydrodynamics code and is sampled using a Markov chain Monte Carlo to generate the posterior distributions of the model parameters. As a result, the goal of this work is to demonstrate a general methodology that can be used to draw conclusions from a wide variety of HED experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
NASA NTRS2009

Bayes Analysis and Reliability Implications of Stress-Rupture Testing a Kevlar/Epoxy COPV using Temperature and Pressure Acceleration

Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessel (COPVs) that have survived a long service time under pressure generally must be recertified before service is extended. Sometimes lifetime testing is performed on an actual COPV in service in an effort to validate the reliability model that is the basis for certifying the continued flight worthiness of its sisters. Currently, testing of such a Kevlar49(registered TradeMark)/epoxy COPV is nearing completion. The present paper focuses on a Bayesian statistical approach to analyze the possible failure time results of this test and to assess the implications in choosing between possible model parameter values that in the past have had significant uncertainty. The key uncertain parameters in this case are the actual fiber stress ratio at operating pressure, and the Weibull shape parameter for lifetime; the former has been uncertain due to ambiguities in interpreting the original and a duplicate burst test. The latter has been uncertain due to major differences between COPVs in the data base and the actual COPVs in service. Any information obtained that clarifies and eliminates uncertainty in these parameters will have a major effect on the predicted reliability of the service COPVs going forward. The key result is that the longer the vessel survives, the more likely the more optimistic stress ratio is correct. At the time of writing, the resulting effect on predicted future reliability is dramatic, increasing it by about one nine , that is, reducing the probability of failure by an order of magnitude. However, testing one vessel does not change the uncertainty on the Weibull shape parameter for lifetime since testing several would be necessary.

Phoenix, S. Leigh↗
DOE OSTI2024

Assessing correlated truncation errors in modern nucleon-nucleon potentials

We test the BUQEYE model of correlated effective field theory (EFT) truncation errors on Reinert, Krebs, and Epelbaum's semilocal momentum-space implementation of the chiral EFT (𝜒⁢EFT ) expansion of the nucleon-nucleon (NN) potential. This Bayesian model hypothesizes that dimensionless coefficient functions extracted from the order-by-order corrections to NN observables can be treated as draws from a Gaussian process (GP). We combine a variety of graphical and statistical diagnostics to assess when predicted observables have a 𝜒⁢EFT convergence pattern consistent with the hypothesized GP statistical model. Our conclusions are that, first, the BUQEYE model is generally applicable to the potential investigated here, which enables statistically principled estimates of the impact of higher EFT orders on observables. Second, parameters defining the extracted coefficients such as the expansion parameter 𝑄 must be well chosen for the coefficients to exhibit a regular convergence pattern—a property we exploit to obtain posterior distributions for such quantities. Third, the assumption of GP stationarity across lab energy and scattering angle is not generally met; this necessitates adjustments in future work. We provide a workflow and interpretive guide for our analysis framework, and show what can be inferred about probability distributions for 𝑄, the EFT breakdown scale Λ 𝑏 , the scale associated with soft physics in the 𝜒⁢EFT potential 𝑚 eff , and the GP hyperparameters. All our results can be reproduced using a publicly available Jupyter notebook, which can be straightforwardly modified to analyze other 𝜒⁢EFT NN potentials.

Bayesian methods↗
DOE OSTI2016

Inverse Uncertainty Quantification of Reactor Simulation with Polynomial Chaos Surrogate Model

Reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) and sensitivity analysis (SA) is significant part of modelling and simulation. This is particularly important in the nuclear community due to the fact that the licensing of nuclear installations has shifted from conservative to Best Estimate plus Uncertainty (BEPU) methodologies. UQ can be broadly classified as forward UQ and inverse UQ. Forward UQ is the process of quantifying the uncertainties in simulation outputs by propagating the uncertainties in input parameters. It requires knowledge in the input uncertainty, which is often specified by ad-hoc expert judgment which lacks mathematical rigor. The inverse UQ is the process to determine the uncertainty in input parameters given observations of the output. The purpose of this paper is to replace such ad-hoc expert judgment of the statistical properties of input model parameters in nuclear reactor simulation. This summary presents work on inverse UQ of a nonlinear Point Reactor Kinetics Equations - lumped thermal-hydraulics parameter coupled problem. Bayesian inference and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) are used for the inverse UQ. Because MCMC requires a large number of simulations which is impractical for models that are computationally expensive, surrogate models is constructed by generalized Polynomial Chaos (PC) expansion technique. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

High-z galaxies with JWST and local analogues – it is not only star formation

ABSTRACT I present an analysis of the JWST NIRSpec data of SMACS 0723 released as Early Release Observations. As part of this three new redshifts are provided, bringing the total of reliable redshifts to 14. I propose a modification to the direct abundance determination method that reduces sensitivity to flux calibration uncertainties by a factor of ∼3 and show that the resulting abundances are in good agreement with Bayesian photoionization models of the rest-frame optical spectrum. I also show that 6355 is most likely a narrow-line active galactic nucleus (AGN) with $M_*\lt 10^9\, \mathrm{M}_\odot$ at z = 7.66 and argue that 10 612 might also have an AGN contribution to its flux through comparison to photoionization models and low-redshift analogues. Under the assumption that the lines come from star formation, I find that the galaxies have gas depletion times of ∼107 yr, comparable to similar galaxies locally. I also identify a population of possibly shock-dominated galaxies at z < 3, whose near-IR emission lines plausibly come nearly all from shocks and discuss their implications. I close with a discussion of the potential for biases in the determination of the mass–metallicity relation using samples defined by detected [O iii]4363 and show using low-z galaxies that this can lead to biases of up to 0.5 dex with a systematic trend with mass.

Brinchmann, Jarle (ORCID:0000000343598797)↗
DOE OSTI2019

ACCESS: Ground-based Optical Transmission Spectroscopy of the Hot Jupiter WASP-4b

We present an optical transmission spectrum of the atmosphere of WASP-4b obtained through observations of four transits with Magellan/IMACS, as part of the Arizona-CfA-Católica-Carnegie Exoplanet Spectroscopy Survey (ACCESS). Using a Bayesian approach to atmospheric retrieval, we find no evidence for scattering or absorption features in our transit spectrum. Our models include a component to model the transit light source effect (spectral contamination from unocculted spots on the stellar photosphere), which we show can have a marked impact on the observed transmission spectrum for reasonable spot-covering fractions (<5%); this is the first such analysis for WASP-4b. We are also able to fit for the size and temperature contrast of spots observed during the second and third transits, finding evidence for both small, cool and large, warm spot-like features on the photosphere. Finally, we compare our results to those published by Huitson et al. using Gemini/GMOS and May et al. using IMACS, and we find that our data are in agreement.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

On data set tensions and signatures of new cosmological physics

ABSTRACT Can new cosmic physics be uncovered through tensions amongst data sets? Tensions in parameter determinations amongst different types of cosmological observation, especially the ‘Hubble tension’ between probes of the expansion rate, have been invoked as possible indicators of new physics, requiring extension of the ΛCDM paradigm to resolve. Within a fully Bayesian framework, we show that the standard tension metric gives only part of the updating of model probabilities, supplying a data co-dependence term that must be combined with the Bayes factors of individual data sets. This shows that, on its own, a reduction of data set tension under an extension to ΛCDM is insufficient to demonstrate that the extended model is favoured. Any analysis that claims evidence for new physics solely on the basis of alleviating data set tensions should be considered incomplete and suspect. We describe the implications of our results for the interpretation of the Hubble tension.

Cortês, Marina (ORCID:0000000304853767)↗
NASA NTRS1993

On evaluating the accuracy of SAR sea-ice classification using multifrequency polarimetric AIRSAR data

We investigate how multifrequency and polarimetric synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery enhances present capability to discriminate different ice conditions in single-frequency, single-polarization satellite SAR data. Frequencies considered are C- (lambda = 5.6cm), L- (lambda = 24cm) and P- (lambda = 68cm) band. Radar backscatter characteristics of six radiometrically and polarimetrically distinct ice types are selected from a cluster analysis of the multifrequency polarimetric SAR data and used to classify SAR images. Validation of these ice conditions is based on information provided by aerial photos, weather and ice surface measurements acquired at an ice camp, together with airborne passive microwave imagery, and visual analysis of the SAR data. The six identified sea-ice types are: (1) multiyear sea-ice; (2) compressed first year ice; (3) first year rubble and ridges; (4) first year rough ice; (5) first year smooth ice; and (6) thin ice. Open water is absent in all analyzed data. Classification of the SAR imagery into those six ice types is performed using a Bayesian Maximum A Posteriori classifier. Two complete scenes acquired at different dates in different locations are classified. The scenes were chosen such that they are representative of typical ice conditions in the Beaufort Sea in March 1988 and because ancillary information is available for validating the segmentation of various ice surface conditions.

Drinkwater, Mark R.↗
DOE OSTI2019

Quantifying Spatially Varying Blur in X-ray Radiographic Imaging Systems

Two goals of quantitative analysis of radiographic data from dynamic material experiments are to identify edge locations and infer material density. Understanding the systematic effect of blur of the imaging system through calibration imagery is the fist step to quantifying, modeling, and eventually mitigating its effect. If modeling geometry and assumptions can be expressed through operator transformations, this leads to natural modifications of the likelihood and prior in a Bayesian formulation of the inverse problem.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗