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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Arctic Cloud‐Base Ice Precipitation Properties Retrieved Using Bayesian Inference

Abstract Cloud‐climate feedbacks are still the greatest source of uncertainty in current climate projections. Arctic clouds, which are predominantly stratiform and supercooled, often long‐lived, and nearly continuously precipitate ice particles, contribute roughly 10% of the uncertainty attributed to the global cloud feedback. This Arctic cloud uncertainty is driven by incomplete observational and theoretical knowledge required to estimate and explain the state and active processes occurring in those clouds. A focus on ice precipitation properties at Arctic cloud base rather than the surface deconfounds the product of cloud condensate sink processes from the influence of the atmospheric thermodynamic state below cloud base, rendering cloud‐base properties a more appealing target for inference and evaluation of model simulations. Here I describe an inverse model for the estimation of cloud base ice precipitation properties over Utqiagvik, North Slope of Alaska, using the synthesis of ground‐based radar and lidar measurements. By leveraging a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm as the core of the inverse model, a wide range of particle size distributions are sampled, and different combinations of ice habit models are examined, both of which are typically fixed in other retrieval methods. Results show intriguing links between different cloud base thermodynamic and ice precipitation properties. Apparent ice number concentration enhancements at temperatures of −5 and −15°C suggest possible secondary ice production (SIP). The analysis alludes to an overestimation of SIP occurrence and intensity, especially in studies relying only on radar or lidar measurements. Finally, reflectivity‐dependent ice precipitation rate and ice water content parameterizations are presented.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Xylem-dwelling pathogen unaffected by local xylem vessel network properties in grapevines ( Vitis spp.)

Abstract Background and aims Xylella fastidiosa (Xf) is the xylem-dwelling bacterium associated with Pierce’s disease (PD), which causes mortality in agriculturally important species, such as grapevine (Vitis vinifera). The development of PD symptoms in grapevines depends on the ability of Xf to produce cell-wall-degrading enzymes to break up intervessel pit membranes and systematically spread through the xylem vessel network. Our objective here was to investigate whether PD resistance could be mechanistically linked to xylem vessel network local connectivity. Methods We used high-resolution X-ray micro-computed tomography (microCT) imaging to identify and describe the type, area and spatial distribution of intervessel connections for six different grapevine genotypes from three genetic backgrounds, with varying resistance to PD (four PD resistant and two PD susceptible). Key results Our results suggest that PD resistance is unlikely to derive from local xylem network connectivity. The intervessel pit area (Ai) varied from 0.07 ± 0.01 mm2 mm−3 in Lenoir to 0.17 ± 0.03 mm2 mm−3 in Blanc do Bois, both PD resistant. Intervessel contact fraction (Cp) was not statically significant, but the two PD-susceptible genotypes, Syrah (0.056 ± 0.015) and Chardonnay (0.041 ± 0.013), were among the most highly connected vessel networks. Neither Ai nor Cp explained differences in PD resistance among the six genotypes. Bayesian re-analysis of our data shows moderate evidence against the effects of the traits analysed: Ai (BF01 = 4.88), mean vessel density (4.86), relay diameter (4.30), relay density (3.31) and solitary vessel proportion (3.19). Conclusions Our results show that radial and tangential xylem network connectivity is highly conserved within the six different Vitis genotypes we sampled. The way that Xf traverses the vessel network may limit the importance of local network properties to its spread and may confer greater importance on host biochemical responses.

Plant Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2021

Manifold learning for coarse-graining atomistic simulations: Application to amorphous solids

In this work, we introduce a generalized machine learning framework to probabilistically parameterize upper-scale models in the form of nonlinear PDEs consistent with a continuum theory, based on coarse-grained atomistic simulation data of mechanical deformation and flow processes. The proposed framework utilizes a hypothesized coarse-graining methodology with manifold learning and surrogate-based optimization techniques. Coarse-grained high-dimensional data describing quantities of interest of the multiscale models are projected onto a nonlinear manifold whose geometric and topological structure is exploited for measuring behavioral discrepancies in the form of manifold distances. A surrogate model is constructed using Gaussian process regression to identify a mapping between stochastic parameters and distances. Derivative-free optimization is employed to adaptively identify a unique set of parameters of the upper-scale model capable of rapidly reproducing the system's behavior while maintaining consistency with coarse-grained atomic-level simulations. The proposed method is applied to learn the parameters of the shear transformation zone (STZ) theory of plasticity that describes plastic deformation in amorphous solids as well as coarse-graining parameters needed to translate between atomistic and continuum representations. We show that the methodology is able to successfully link coarse-grained microscale simulations to macroscale observables and achieve a high-level of parity between the models across scales.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2018

Uncertainty Analysis in 3D Equilibrium Reconstruction

Reconstruction is an inverse process where a parameter space is searched to locate a set of parameters with the highest probability of describing experimental observations. Due to systematic errors and uncertainty in experimental measurements, this optimal set of parameters will contain some associated uncertainty. This uncertainty in the optimal parameters leads to uncertainty in models derived using those parameters. V3FIT is a three-dimensional (3D) equilibrium reconstruction code that propagates uncertainty from the input signals, to the reconstructed parameters, and to the final model. Here in this paper, we describe the methods used to propagate uncertainty in V3FIT. Using the results of whole shot 3D equilibrium reconstruction of the Compact Toroidal Hybrid, this propagated uncertainty is validated against the random variation in the resulting parameters. Two different model parameterizations demonstrate how the uncertainty propagation can indicate the quality of a reconstruction. As a proxy for random sampling, the whole shot reconstruction results in a time interval that will be used to validate the propagated uncertainty from a single time slice.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Bayesian Estimation of the D(p,γ) 3 He Thermonuclear Reaction Rate

Big bang nucleosynthesis (BBN) is the standard model theory for the production of the light nuclides during the early stages of the universe, taking place for a period of about 20 minutes after the big bang. Deuterium production, in particular, is highly sensitive to the primordial baryon density and the number of neutrino species, and its abundance serves as a sensitive test for the conditions in the early universe. The comparison of observed deuterium abundances with predicted ones requires reliable knowledge of the relevant thermonuclear reaction rates, and their corresponding uncertainties. Recent observations reported the primordial deuterium abundance with percent accuracy, but some theoretical predictions based on BBN are at tension with the measured values because of uncertainties in the cross section of the deuterium-burning reactions. In this work, we analyze the S-factor of the D(p,γ) 3 He reaction using a hierarchical Bayesian model. We take into account the results of eleven experiments, spanning the period of 1955--2021; more than any other study. We also present results for two different fitting functions, a two-parameter function based on microscopic nuclear theory and a four-parameter polynomial. Furthermore, our recommended reaction rates have a 2.2\% uncertainty at 0.8~GK, which is the temperature most important for deuterium BBN. Differences between our rates and previous results are discussed.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Multi-Trait Regressor Stacking Increased Genomic Prediction Accuracy of Sorghum Grain Composition

Genomic prediction has enabled plant breeders to estimate breeding values of unobserved genotypes and environments. The use of genomic prediction will be extremely valuable for compositional traits for which phenotyping is labor-intensive and destructive for most accurate results. We studied the potential of Bayesian multi-output regressor stacking (BMORS) model in improving prediction performance over single trait single environment (STSE) models using a grain sorghum diversity panel (GSDP) and a biparental recombinant inbred lines (RILs) population. A total of five highly correlated grain composition traits—amylose, fat, gross energy, protein and starch, with genomic heritability ranging from 0.24 to 0.59 in the GSDP and 0.69 to 0.83 in the RILs were studied. Average prediction accuracies from the STSE model were within a range of 0.4 to 0.6 for all traits across both populations except amylose (0.25) in the GSDP. Prediction accuracy for BMORS increased by 41% and 32% on average over STSE in the GSDP and RILs, respectively. Prediction of whole environments by training with remaining environments in BMORS resulted in moderate to high prediction accuracy. Our results show regression stacking methods such as BMORS have potential to accurately predict unobserved individuals and environments, and implementation of such models can accelerate genetic gain.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

A compact x-ray spectrometer for measurements of electron temperature distributions in inertial confinement fusion implosions at OMEGA

The Wedge Range Filter (WRF), commonly used for proton spectroscopy at the OMEGA Laser Facility and National Ignition Facility, is adapted to measure the x-ray continuum spectrum through transmission measurement using a continuous-gradient filter. Continuum x rays emitted from the hotspot of an implosion contain information about the plasma composition and electron temperature. The WRF data are leveraged to probe this distribution, specifically the electron temperature distribution. In this work, the data recorded with the WRF are forward modeled using a temperature distribution model folded with the WRF response function. An uncertainty analysis is conducted through a Bayesian regression algorithm using a Hamiltonian Monte Carlo sampler. This analysis enables the uncertainties in the instrument response to be folded into the uncertainty estimation of the electron temperature and absolute x-ray emission. Data analysis for a series of OMEGA implosions is presented and compared with radiation hydrodynamic simulations.

Lasers↗
DOE OSTI2016

Collaborative Project: The problem of bias in defining uncertainty in computationally enabled strategies for data-driven climate model development. Final Technical Report.

The objective of the project is to develop strategies for better representing scientific sensibilities within statistical measures of model skill that then can be used within a Bayesian statistical framework for data-driven climate model development and improved measures of model scientific uncertainty. One of the thorny issues in model evaluation is quantifying the effect of biases on climate projections. While any bias is not desirable, only those biases that affect feedbacks affect scatter in climate projections. The effort at the University of Texas is to analyze previously calculated ensembles of CAM3.1 with perturbed parameters to discover how biases affect projections of global warming. The hypothesis is that compensating errors in the control model can be identified by their effect on a combination of processes and that developing metrics that are sensitive to dependencies among state variables would provide a way to select version of climate models that may reduce scatter in climate projections. Gabriel Huerta at the University of New Mexico is responsible for developing statistical methods for evaluating these field dependencies. The UT effort will incorporate these developments into MECS, which is a set of python scripts being developed at the University of Texas for managing the workflow associated with data-driven climate model development over HPC resources. This report reflects the main activities at the University of New Mexico where the PI (Huerta) and the Postdocs (Nosedal, Hattab and Karki) worked on the project.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling Stochastic Variability in Multiband Time-series Data

In preparation for the era of time-domain astronomy with upcoming large-scale surveys, we propose a state-space representation of a multivariate damped random walk process as a tool to analyze irregularly-spaced multifilter light curves with heteroscedastic measurement errors. We adopt a computationally efficient and scalable Kalman filtering approach to evaluate the likelihood function, leading to maximum O(k 3 n) complexity, where k is the number of available bands and n is the number of unique observation times across the k bands. This is a significant computational advantage over a commonly used univariate Gaussian process that can stack up all multiband light curves in one vector with maximum O(k 3 n 3 ) complexity. Using such efficient likelihood computation, we provide both maximum likelihood estimates and Bayesian posterior samples of the model parameters. Three numerical illustrations are presented: (i) analyzing simulated five-band light curves for a comparison with independent single-band fits; (ii) analyzing five-band light curves of a quasar obtained from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Stripe 82 to estimate short-term variability and timescale; (iii) analyzing gravitationally lensed g- and r-band light curves of Q0957+561 to infer the time delay. Two R packages, Rdrw and timedelay, are publicly available to fit the proposed models.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Mesoscopic structure of mixed type domain walls in multiaxial ferroelectrics

The structure of a 180° uncharged rotational domain wall in a multiaxial ferroelectric film is studied in the framework of an analytical Landau-Ginzburg-Devonshire (LGD) approach. Finite element modeling (FEM) is used to solve numerically the system of the coupled nonlinear Euler-Lagrange (EL) second-order differential equations for two components of polarization. We show that the structure of the domain wall and corresponding metastable or stable phase of the film are controlled by a single parameter—the dimensionless ferroelectric anisotropy factor μ. We fitted the static profile of a solitary domain wall, calculated by FEM, with kinklike functions for polarization components, and extracted the five μ-dependent parameters from the fitting to FEM curves. The surprisingly high accuracy of the fitting results for two polarization components in the entire μ range allows us to conclude that the analytical functions, which are trial functions in the direct variational method, can be treated as a high-accuracy variational solution of the static EL equations. We further derive exact two-component analytical solutions of the static EL equations for a polydomain 180° domain structure in a multiaxial ferroelectric film. Using these, we derive analytical expressions for the system free energy and analyze its dependence on the film thickness and boundary conditions at the film surfaces. The single-domain state is ground for zero polarization derivative at the surfaces, while the polydomain states minimize the system energy for zero polarization at the surfaces. Counterintuitively, the energy of the polydomain states split into two levels, “0” and “1,” for zero polarization at the surfaces, and each of the levels contains a large number of close-energy sublevels, whose structure is characterized by a different number and type of domain walls. The analytical solutions can become a useful tool for Bayesian analysis of high-resolution scanning transmission electron microscopy images in ferroelectric films.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Multi-head physics-informed neural networks for learning functional priors and uncertainty quantification

In numerous applications, the integration of prior knowledge and historical information is essential, particularly for tasks requiring the solution of ordinary or partial differential equations (ODEs/PDEs) in data-sparse or noisy environments. For instance, achieving accurate solutions to time-dependent PDEs with limited initial condition measurements necessitates an effective strategy for embedding prior knowledge. Hard-parameter sharing architectures in neural networks (NNs) have demonstrated success in both traditional and scientific machine learning domains, facilitating the learning of informative representations. Here, in this study, we introduce a novel, yet efficient, method to enhance physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) by incorporating a multi-head structure that enables the learning of functional priors from both empirical data and governing physical laws. This prior information can then be used to address data sparsity and high-level noise in solving ODE/PDE problems with uncertainty quantification (UQ). The approach, termed Multi-Head PINN (MH-PINN), consists of a shared body NN and multiple head NNs, each corresponding to an individual PINN instance. Our framework for functional prior learning is carried out in two stages: (1) training the MH-PINNs to develop a shared body NN alongside multiple head NNs, and (2) employing these trained head NNs to estimate a prior distribution through a normalizing flow-based density estimator. The learned functional prior can then be applied as a regularization mechanism in deterministic contexts or as an informative prior within a Bayesian inference framework, aiding in the resolution of subsequent ODE/PDE tasks. We evaluate the efficacy of MH-PINNs across five benchmark problems, including a high-dimensional parametric PDE, all characterized by data sparsity or substantial noise levels. Our findings reveal that MH-PINNs deliver accurate solutions and robust UQ, demonstrating adaptability across a range of complex and challenging scenarios.

Bayesian inference↗
DOE OSTI2019

Using Gaia DR2 to constrain local dark matter density and thin dark disk

We use stellar kinematics from the latest Gaia data release (DR2) to measure the local dark matter (DM) density ρ DM in a heliocentric cylinder of radius R= 150 pc and half-height z= 200 pc. We also explore the prospect of using our analysis to estimate the DM density in local substructure by setting constraints on the surface density and scale height of a thin dark disk aligned with the baryonic disk and formed due to dissipative dark matter self-interactions. Performing the statistical analysis within a Bayesian framework for three types of tracers, we obtain ρDM = 0.016 ± 0.010 M ⊙ /pc 3 for A stars; early G stars give a similar result, while F stars yield a significantly higher value. For a thin dark disk, A stars set the strongest constraint: excluding surface densities (5–12) M ⊙ /pc 2 for scale heights below 100 pc with 95% confidence. The upper bound of this constraint implies ≲ 1% of the Milky Way DM mass is present in a dissipative dark sector. Comparing our results with those derived using Tycho-Gaia Astrometric Solution (TGAS) data, we find that the uncertainty in our measurements of the local DM content is dominated by systematic errors that arise from assumptions of our dynamical analysis in the low z region. Furthermore, there will only be a marginal reduction in these uncertainties with more data in the Gaia era. We comment on the robustness of our method and discuss potential improvements for future work.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Hawai‘i Play Fairway (Final Report)

Most of Hawai'i's geothermal resources are blind—their manifestations, such as hot springs and steam vents, do not appear on the ground surface because the heated water flows far below. With the exception of $K\bar{i}lauea East Rift Zone$, in most areas of Hawai'i, high lateral permeability in the first kilometer below ground surface prevents surface thermal features from developing. As a methodology for discovering these blind resources, Play Fairway Analysis (PFA) involves finding potential locations of blind hydrothermal systems and describing potential geothermal sources in rift-zone settings. Using the PFA to find Hawai'i's geothermal resources, the University of Hawai'i (UH) conducted the Hawai‘i Play Fairway Project, Hawai'i's first statewide geothermal resource assessment since 1985. Sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy, the Hawai'i Play Fairway Project provided an updated resource assessment, a roadmap for additional exploration activities, and the identification of areas for further exploration. Benefitting from UH's core competency in earth sciences and experienced geothermal researchers, the project comprised three phases. During the first phase, the team identified, compiled, and ranked existing geologic, groundwater, and geophysical datasets relevant to subsurface heat, fluid and permeability. Using a Bayesian statistical approach, the team developed a statistical methodology to integrate these data into a resource probability map. The team evaluated the confidence in the probability value and considered development viability of areas with geothermal resources. With these analyses, the team identified 10 locations in the Hawaiian Islands for exploration activities. For the second phase, the team collected new groundwater data in 10 locations across the state and new geophysical data on $L\bar{a}na‘i, Maui$, and central Hawai'i Island and modeled topographically induced stress to better characterize subsurface permeability. Analyzing the subsurface stresses, the team evaluated the potential for fracture-induced permeability. The team inverted the MT and gravity data to produce 3D models of resistivity and density, respectively, on $L\bar{a}na‘i$, across $Haleakal\bar{a}'s$ SW rift (Maui), and surrounding Mauna Kea (Hawai‘i Island). The team developed and applied a new method for incorporating depth information about resistivity, density, and potential for fracture-induced permeability into the statistical method for computing resource probability in these three focus areas. The team incorporated the new groundwater results with the new geophysical results and the calculations of potential for fracture-induced permeability to produce updated maps of resource probability and confidence. Through combining data from the first and second phases, the team determined locations for further exploration during the third phase. For MT and gravity surveys, the team recommended $Kaua'i's$ $L\bar{i}hu'e$ $Basin$, the east rift of $Maui's$ $Haleakal\bar{a}$ volcano, and the southwest rift of Hawai'i Island's Mauna Loa volcano. The MT and gravity surveys aimed to enable improved confidence in the resource potential in these locations. For drilling deep groundwater well(s), the team recommended Southeast Mauna Kea and $L\bar{a}na's$ $P\bar{a}l\bar{a}wai$ $Basin$. During the third phase, further exploration involved drilling a groundwater well in $L\bar{a}na's$ $P\bar{a}l\bar{a}wai$ $Basin$ and performing more geophysical surveys. We deepened an existing water well proximal to our target area on $L\bar{a}na'i$ due to funding constraints that precluded us from spudding a new well that would exceed 1km depth. Drilling was preceded by a number of substantial elements including: writing an Environmental Assessment and the subsequent legal process, performance of deviation logging, lowering a camera down the well, coordinating site preparation with $P\bar{u}lama$ $L\bar{a}na'i$, shipping the UH-owned rig interisland, procuring supplies, and leading 3 community meetings on $L\bar{a}na'i$. Drilling occurred 24/7 the entire month of June 2019 over which time $L\bar{a}na'i$ $Well$ 10 was deepened from 427 m to 1057 m, with continuous core collected. We measured a roughly linear temperature gradient averaging 42°C/km and a maximum bottom hole temperature of 66°C. This gradient is more than twice the background for Hawai'i and within a range of gradients measured in this depth range for some exploration wells within KERZ. We consider these results encouraging for $L\bar{a}na'i's$ resource potential and recommend following with a slim hole within $L\bar{a}na'i's$ caldera (our target zone) to ~ 2 km. Further, the positive implications such results have for the island of O‘ahu are substantial - the shield stage of O'ahu's volcanoes ended 1-2 My earlier. However, O'ahu uses more electricity than the rest of the islands combined, and the utility recently called for 500-700MW of firm, dispatchable renewable electricity on O'ahu by 2033. In Phase 3, we also collected limited new encouraging groundwater data, and updated our thoughts on the probabilities of fluid and permeability at resource depths (Pr F = 1; Pr P = mostly unconstrained). Ultimately, we advocate for using our final probability of heat, and confidence in this probability, to drive the next phase of exploration. We contend further development of geothermal in Hawai‘i will enable the state to achieve its 100% renewable policy objective and Hawai'i to transition off of fossil fuels through geothermal discovery and development. The project not only produced a large amount of data and expanded the existing knowledge of Hawai'i's geothermal resources, but also produced publications, theses, presentations, core photos, datasets, media reports, television interviews, community events, and a blog. Students and new professionals benefitted from the project's hands-on research experiences and educational opportunities and earned awards and recognition.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Deep kernel methods learn better: from cards to process optimization

Abstract The ability of deep learning methods to perform classification and regression tasks relies heavily on their capacity to uncover manifolds in high-dimensional data spaces and project them into low-dimensional representation spaces. In this study, we investigate the structure and character of the manifolds generated by classical variational autoencoder (VAE) approaches and deep kernel learning (DKL). In the former case, the structure of the latent space is determined by the properties of the input data alone, while in the latter, the latent manifold forms as a result of an active learning process that balances the data distribution and target functionalities. We show that DKL with active learning can produce a more compact and smooth latent space which is more conducive to optimization compared to previously reported methods, such as the VAE. We demonstrate this behavior using a simple cards dataset and extend it to the optimization of domain-generated trajectories in physical systems. Our findings suggest that latent manifolds constructed through active learning have a more beneficial structure for optimization problems, especially in feature-rich target-poor scenarios that are common in domain sciences, such as materials synthesis, energy storage, and molecular discovery. The Jupyter Notebooks that encapsulate the complete analysis accompany the article.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Bayesian model averaging for analysis of lattice field theory results

Statistical modeling is a key component in the extraction of physical results from lattice field theory calculations. Although the general models used are often strongly motivated by physics, many model variations can frequently be considered for the same lattice data. Model averaging, which amounts to a probability-weighted average over all model variations, can incorporate systematic errors associated with model choice without being overly conservative. We discuss the framework of model averaging from the perspective of Bayesian statistics, and give useful formulae and approximations for the particular case of least-squares fitting, commonly used in modeling lattice results. In addition, we frame the common problem of data subset selection (e.g. choice of minimum and maximum time separation for fitting a two-point correlation function) as a model selection problem and study model averaging as a straightforward alternative to manual selection of fit ranges. Numerical examples involving both mock and real lattice data are given.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Robustness of Deep Learning Classification to Adversarial Input on GPUs: Asynchronous Parallel Accumulation Is a Source of Vulnerability

The ability of machine learning (ML) classification models to resist small, targeted input perturbations—known as adversarial attacks—is a key measure of their safety and reliability. We show that floating-point non associativity (FPNA) coupled with asynchronous parallel programming on GPUs is sufficient to result in misclassification, without any perturbation to the input. Additionally, we show that this misclassification is particularly significant for inputs close to the decision boundary and that standard adversarial robustness results may be overestimated up to 4.6 when not considering machine-level details. We first study a linear classifier, before focusing on standard Graph Neural Network (GNN) architectures and datasets used in robustness assessments. We develop a novel black-box attack using Bayesian optimization to discover external workloads that can change the instruction scheduling which bias the output of reductions on GPUs and reliably lead to misclassification. Motivated by these results, we present a new learnable permutation (LP) gradient-based approach to learning floating-point operation orderings that lead to misclassifications. The LP approach provides a worst-case estimate in a computationally efficient manner, avoiding the need to run identical experiments tens of thousands of times over a potentially large set of possible GPU states or architectures. Finally, using instrumentation-based testing, we investigate parallel reduction ordering across different GPU architectures under external background workloads, when utilizing multi-GPU virtualization, and when applying power capping. Our results demonstrate that parallel reduction ordering varies significantly across architectures under the first two conditions, substantially increasing the search space required to fully test the effects of this parallel scheduler-based vulnerability. These results and the methods developed here can help to include machine-level considerations into adversarial robustness assessments, which can make a difference in safety and mission critical applications.

Shanmugavelu, Sanjif [Maxeler Technologies, a Groq↗
DOE OSTI2017

Statistical sensitivity on right-handed currents in presence of eV scale sterile neutrinos with KATRIN

The KATRIN experiment aims to determine the absolute neutrino mass by measuring the endpoint region of the tritium β-spectrum. As a large-scale experiment with a sharp energy resolution, high source luminosity and low background it may also be capable of testing certain theories of neutrino interactions beyond the standard model (SM). An example of a non-SM interaction are right-handed currents mediated by right-handed W bosons in the left-right symmetric model (LRSM). In this extension of the SM, an additional SU(2){sub R} symmetry in the high-energy limit is introduced, which naturally includes sterile neutrinos and predicts the seesaw mechanism. In tritium β decay, this leads to an additional term from interference between left- and right-handed interactions, which enhances or suppresses certain regions near the endpoint of the beta spectrum. In this work, the sensitivity of KATRIN to right-handed currents is estimated for the scenario of a light sterile neutrino with a mass of some eV. This analysis has been performed with a Bayesian analysis using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The simulations show that, in principle, KATRIN will be able to set sterile neutrino mass-dependent limits on the interference strength. The sensitivity is significantly increased if the Q value of the β decay can be sufficiently constrained. However, the sensitivity is not high enough to improve current upper limits from right-handed W boson searches at the LHC.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Bayesian inverse modeling of the atmospheric transport and emissions of a controlled tracer release from a nuclear power plant

Probability distribution functions (PDFs) of model inputs that affect the transport and dispersion of a trace gas released from a coastal California nuclear power plant are quantified using ensemble simulations, machine-learning algorithms, and Bayesian inversion. The PDFs are constrained by observations of tracer concentrations and account for uncertainty in meteorology, transport, diffusion, and emissions. Meteorological uncertainty is calculated using an ensemble of simulations of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model that samples five categories of model inputs (initialization time, boundary layer physics, land surface model, nudging options, and reanalysis data). The WRF output is used to drive tens of thousands of FLEXPART dispersion simulations that sample a uniform distribution of six emissions inputs. Machine-learning algorithms are trained on the ensemble data and used to quantify the sources of ensemble variability and to infer, via inverse modeling, the values of the 11 model inputs most consistent with tracer measurements. We find a substantial ensemble spread in tracer concentrations (factors of 10 to 10 3 ), most of which is due to changing emissions inputs (about 80%), though the cumulative effects of meteorological variations are not negligible. The performance of the inverse method is verified using synthetic observations generated from arbitrarily selected simulations. When applied to measurements from a controlled tracer release experiment, the inverse method satisfactorily determines the location, start time, duration and amount. In a 2 km × 2 km area of possible locations, the actual location is determined to within 200m. The start time is determined to within 5min out of 2h, and the duration to within 50min out of 4h. Over a range of release amounts of 10 to 1000kg, the estimated amount exceeds the actual amount of 146kg by only 32kg. The inversion also estimates probabilities of different WRF configurations. In conclusion, to best match the tracer observations, the highest-probability cases in WRF are associated with using a late initialization time and specific reanalysis data products.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗