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At least 1,333 records · Page 74

EUV emission from a sample of Active Galactic Nuclei

Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN) emit a substantial fraction of their total radiated power in the EUV passband, because spectroscopically this band is situated at or near the peak of the 'big blue bump,' which is bounded on either side by the UV and soft X-ray excesses. Owing to the lack of observational data, the shape of AGN spectra in the EUV is not well known. This paper presents broad band (65-190 eV) count rates of 11 AGN detected by the Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer (EUVE). Assuming a power law spectral shape for the EUV and soft X-ray energies, we demonstrate that the photon indices of the sources are considerably steeper than typical AGN indices. For 6 sources where ROSAT data are available to provide a more precise determination of their spectral parameters in the 0.1-2.5 keV range, we have used these parameters to compute predicted EUVE count rates and compared them with the observed values. The two sets of quantities agree to within experimental error. We conclude that there is no evidence of spectral steepening or turn-over of the soft X-ray excess at EUV wavelengths for a sample of AGN which covers a wide range of brightness.

Lieu, R.↗

Global Evolution of Solar Magnetic Fields and Prediction of Solar Activity Cycles

Prediction of solar activity cycles is challenging because the physical processes inside the Sun involve a broad range of multiscale dynamics that no model can reproduce, and the available observations are highly limited and cover mostly surface layers. Helioseismology makes it possible to probe solar dynamics in the convective zone, but variations in the differential rotation and meridional circulation are currently available for only two solar activity cycles. It has been demonstrated that sunspot observations, which cover over 400 years, can be used to calibrate the Parker-Kleeorin-Ruzmaikin model and that the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) method can be used to link the model magnetic fields to sunspot observations to make reliable predictions of a following cycle. However, for more accurate predictions, it is necessary to use actual observations of the solar magnetic fields, which are available for only four solar cycles. This raises the question of how limitations in observational data and model uncertainties affect predictive capabilities and implies the need for the development of new forecast methodologies and validation criteria. In this presentation, I will discuss the influence of the limited number of available observations on the accuracy of EnKF estimates of solar cycle parameters.

Kitiashvili, Irina N.↗

Response Versus Scan-Angle Assessment of MODIS Reflective Solar Bands in Collection 6.1 Calibration

The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments onboard the Aqua and Terra satellites have been operated for nearly two decades, producing high-quality earth observation data sets suitable for a broad range of scientific studies regarding the earth’s land, ocean, and atmospheric processes. The high radiometric accuracy of MODIS reflective solar band (RSB) calibration has also served as benchmark measurements for on-orbit cross-calibration studies. As the two MODIS instruments have operated well beyond their design lifespan of six years, the measurements from the onboard calibrators alone become inadequate to characterize the sensor’s response at all scan angles, as evinced by long-term drifts observed at certain scan positions of the Aqua-MODIS 0.64- and 0.86-μm bands in Collection 6 (C6) data set. The latest MODIS Level 1B C6.1 data set incorporates earth-view response trending from invariant desert sites as supplemental inputs to characterize the scan-angle calibration dependencies for all RSB. This article presents a deep convective cloud (DCC)-based calibration approach for an independent evaluation of the MODIS RSB response versus scan-angle (RVS) performance in C6.1. The long-term calibration stability and RVS differences in C6.1 have been significantly improved for Aqua-MODIS RSB. The observed RVS differences of more than 2% in Aqua-MODIS C6 bands 1 and 2 have been reduced to within 1% in C6.1. Some RSBs of Terra-MODIS have suffered temporal drifts up to ~2% and calibration shifts up to 3%, particularly around 2016 when the Terra satellite entered into safe mode. The DCC approach has been found very effective in tracking the on-orbit RVS changes over time.

Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERE↗

revealing H{sub 2}D{sup +} depletion and compact structure in starless and protostellar cores with ALMA

We present Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA) observations of the submillimeter dust continuum and H{sub 2}D{sup +} 1{sub 10}-1{sub 11} emission toward two evolved, potentially protostellar cores within the Ophiuchus molecular cloud, Oph A SM1 and SM1N. The data reveal small-scale condensations within both cores, with mass upper limits of M ≲ 0.02 M {sub ☉} (∼20 M {sub Jup}). The SM1 condensation is consistent with a nearly symmetric Gaussian source with a width of only 37 AU. The SM1N condensation is elongated and extends 500 AU along its major axis. No evidence for substructure is seen in either source. A Jeans analysis indicates that these sources are unlikely to fragment, suggesting that both will form single stars. H{sub 2}D{sup +} is only detected toward SM1N, offset from the continuum peak by ∼150-200 AU. This offset may be due to either heating from an undetected, young, low-luminosity protostellar source or first hydrostatic core, or HD (and consequently H{sub 2}D{sup +}) depletion in the cold center of the condensation. We propose that SM1 is protostellar and that the condensation detected by ALMA is a warm (T ∼ 30-50 K) accretion disk. The less concentrated emission of the SM1N condensation suggests that it is still starless, but we cannot rule out the presence of a low-luminosity source, perhaps surrounded by a pseudodisk. These data observationally reveal the earliest stages of the formation of circumstellar accretion regions and agree with theoretical predictions that disk formation can occur very early in the star formation process, coeval with or just after the formation of a first hydrostatic core or protostar.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

SPIRAL DENSITY WAVES IN M81. II. HYDRODYNAMIC SIMULATIONS OF THE GAS RESPONSE TO STELLAR SPIRAL DENSITY WAVES

The gas response to the underlying stellar spirals is explored for M81 using unmagnetized hydrodynamic simulations. Constrained within the uncertainty of observations, 18 simulations are carried out to study the effects of self-gravity and to cover the parameter space comprising three different sound speeds and three different arm strengths. The results are confronted with the data observed at wavelengths of 8 μm and 21 cm. In the outer disk, the ring-like structure observed in the 8 μm image is consistent with the response of cold neutral medium with an effective sound speed 7 km s{sup –1}. For the inner disk, the presence of spiral shocks can be understood as a result of 4:1 resonances associated with the warm neutral medium with an effective sound speed 19 km s{sup –1}. Simulations with a single effective sound speed alone cannot simultaneously explain the structures in the outer and inner disks. Instead this justifies the coexistence of cold and warm neutral media in M81. The anomalously high streaming motions observed in the northeast arm and the outward shifted turning points in the iso-velocity contours seen along the southwest arm are interpreted as signatures of interactions with companion galaxies. The level of simulated streaming motions narrows down the uncertainty of the observed arm strength toward larger amplitudes.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Anthropogenic influence on the drivers of the Western Cape drought 2015–2017

In the period 2015–2017, the Western Cape region has suffered from three consecutive years of below average rainfall—leading to a prolonged drought and acute water shortages, most prominently in the city of Cape Town. After testing that the precipitation deficit is the primary driver behind the reduced surface water availability, we undertake a multi-method attribution analysis for the meteorological drought, defined in terms of a deficit in the 3 years running mean precipitation averaged over the Western Cape area. The exact estimate of the return time of the event is sensitive to the number of stations whose data is incorporated in the analysis but the rarity of the event is unquestionable, with a return time of more than a hundred years. Synthesising the results from five different large model ensembles as well as observed data gives a significant increase by a factor of three (95% confidence interval 1.5–6) of such a drought to occur because of anthropogenic climate change. All the model results further suggest that this trend will continue with future global warming. These results are in line with physical understanding of the effect of climate change at these latitudes and highlights that measures to improve Cape Town's resilience to future droughts are an adaptation priority.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Program for Automated Real-Time Monitoring

Process-control decisions made by applying rules to process data streams. Expert System Executive computer program demonstrates feasibility of automated real-time monitoring. Using Executives knowledge of system formally coded as set of rules specifying actions taken under various conditions. Program makes inferences about observed data based on rules. Written in C language.

Goodrum, Glenn R.↗

Candidates for extreme carbon stars

A group of candidates for extreme carbon stars has been identified based on their IRAS low-resolution spectra being similar to those of AFGL 3068 and IRC +10 deg 216, which are prototypes of highly evolved carbon stars with very high mass-loss rates. Ground-based photometry has been obtained for five of these sources in order to determine the peaks of their energy distributions. All five sources have color temperatures between 300 and 500 K, and have energy distributions very similar to AFGL 3068. The observed data are fitted with radiative transfer models with optical depths at 11.3 microns ranging from 1.4 to 8. These results suggest that these stars have among the most optically thick circumstellar envelopes of all carbon stars observed to date.

Volk, Kevin↗

Compressional ULF waves in the outer magnetosphere. 2: A case study of Pc 5 type wave activity

In previously published work (Zhu and Kivelson, 1991) the spatial distribution of compressional magnetic pulsations of period 2 - 20 min in the outer magnetosphere was described. In this companion paper, we study some specific compressional events within our data set, seeking to determine the structure of the waves and identifying the wave generation mechanism. We use both the magnetic field and three-dimensional plasma data observed by the International Sun-Earth Explorer (ISEE) 1 and/or 2 spacecraft to characterize eight compressional ultra low frequency (ULF) wave events with frequencies below 8 mHz in the outer magnetosphere. High time resolution plasma data for the event of July 24, 1978, made possible a detailed analysis of the waves. Wave properties specific to the event of July 24, 1978, can be summarized as follows: (1) Partial plasma pressures in the different energy ranges responded to the magnetic field pressure differently. In the low-energy range they oscillated in phase with the magnetic pressure, while oscillations in higher-energy ranges were out-of-phase; (2) Perpendicular wavelengths for the event were determined to be 60,000 and 30,000 km in the radial and azimuthal directions, respectively. Wave properties common to all events can be summarized as follows: (1) Compressional Pc 5 wave activity is correlated with Beta, the ratio of the plasma pressure to the magnetic pressure; the absolute magnitude of the plasma pressure plays a minor role for the wave activity; (2) The magnetic equator is a node of the compressional perturbation of the magnetic field; (3) The criterion for the mirror mode instability is often satisfied near the equator in the outer magnetosphere when the compressional waves are present. We believe these waves are generated by internal magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) instabilities.

Zhu, Xiaoming↗

The National Climate Data Base (NCDB): A Bias-Corrected High-Resolution Climate Dataset

Assessing renewable energy resources under future climate scenarios has been highlighted in recent years to analyze and understand potential impacts of future change in renewable generation on the power sector. Solar energy is well-known as the most plentiful among various renewable resources and usually converted to electricity using photovoltaics (PV) technologies, and the global deployment of PV technology has increased rapidly in recent decades. In this study, we develop a statistical technique to downscale the future projection of solar irradiance for PV energy-related applications. A set of Regional Climate Model (RCM)-based projections obtained from the North American Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX) are used as inputs to statistical methods to generate high-resolution global horizontal irradiance (GHI) over the contiguous United States (CONUS). The main steps of the statistical downscaling method include (1) regridding RCM output (0.22 degree and daily resolutions) to handle the modeled-observed data sets on a common grid, (2) correcting bias of RCM GHI using satellite-derived observation, and (3) implementing temporal and spatial downscaling to generate GHI at 8-km and hourly resolution. Basically, complex physical processes and interactions between solar radiation and various atmospheric constituents lead solar irradiance to be highly variable and uncertain. Underrepresentation of clouds from the RCM parameterizations is the main source of error and uncertainty in modeling solar irradiance. Thus, we adapt and use the high-quality satellite-derived data from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) to analyze the bias and error of RCM GHI as well as estimate the statistical parameters for spatial and temporal downscaling. This presentation will summarize the comprehensive analysis conducted to produce and assess the results under two climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). We will also present a detailed validation demonstrating the strengths of the proposed downscaling method and future extension of this research.

climate data↗

The Eruption of a Small-scale Emerging Flux Rope as the Driver of an M-class Flare and of a Coronal Mass Ejection

Solar flares and coronal mass ejections are the most powerful explosions in the Sun. They are major sources of potentially destructive space weather conditions. However, the possible causes of their initiation remain controversial. Using high-resolution data observed by the New Solar Telescope of Big Bear Solar Observatory, supplemented by Solar Dynamics Observatory observations, we present unusual observations of a small-scale emerging flux rope near a large sunspot, whose eruption produced an M-class flare and a coronal mass ejection. The presence of the small-scale flux rope was indicated by static nonlinear force-free field extrapolation as well as data-driven magnetohydrodynamics modeling of the dynamic evolution of the coronal three-dimensional magnetic field. During the emergence of the flux rope, rotation of satellite sunspots at the footpoints of the flux rope was observed. Meanwhile, the Lorentz force, magnetic energy, vertical current, and transverse fields were increasing during this phase. The free energy from the magnetic flux emergence and twisting magnetic fields is sufficient to power the M-class flare. These observations present, for the first time, the complete process, from the emergence of the small-scale flux rope, to the production of solar eruptions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Coupled Model Simulation of Snowfall Events Over the Black Hills

Although many long-term simulations of snow accumulation and oblation have been made using stand-alone land surface models and surface models coupled with GCMs, less research has focused on short-term event simulations. Actually, accurate event simulations of snow-related processes are the basis for successful long-term simulation. Three advantages of event simulations of snowfall and snow melting are availability of: (1) intensive observation data from field experiments for validation; (2) more physically-realistic precipitation schemes for use in atmospheric models to simulate snowfall; and (3) a more detailed analysis of the snow melting processes. In addition to the complexities of snow related processes themselves, terrain-induced effects on snowfall/snow melting make simulations of snow events more difficult. Climatological observations indicate that terrain features such as the Black Hills of South Dakota and Wyoming can exert important effects on snow accumulation and snow oblation processes. One of the primary effects is that the orography causes forced uplift of airflow and causes atmospheric waves to form both upwind and downwind of it. Airflow often splits around the obstacle, converging on the lee side. This convergence may lead to precipitation enhancement. It also provides an elevated heat and moisture source that enhances atmospheric instability. During the period of April 5-May 5, 1999, the Upper Missouri River Basin Pilot Project (UMRBPP) made intensive observations on precipitation events occurring in the Black Hills. Two moderate snowfall events were captured during the period. The resulting high temporal and spatial resolution data provides opportunities to investigate terrain effects on snowfall amount, distribution, and melting. Successful simulation of snowfall amount, distribution, and evolution using atmospheric models is important to subsequent modeling of snow melting using snow sub-models in land surface schemes. In this paper, a coupled model system, consisting of an atmosphere model (ARPS) and a land-surface model (revised NCAR LSM), is used to simulate one of these UMRBPP cases.

Wang, Jianzhong↗

New Earth Observation Capabilities For The Commercial Sector

Earth observation data collected from orbital remote sensing systems are becoming increasingly critical to the short- and long-term operations of many commercial industries including agriculture, energy exploration, environmental management, transportation, and urban planning and operations. In this panel, I will present an overview of current and planned NASA remote sensing systems for Earth observation with relevance to commercial and industrial applications. Special emphasis will be given to the International Space Station (ISS) as a platform for both commercial technology demonstration/development and operational data collection through the ISS National Laboratory.

Stefanov, William L.↗

WebGIobe - A cloud-based geospatial analysis framework for interacting with climate data

While climate models have evolved over time to produce high fidelity and high resolution climate forecasts, visualization and analysis of the output of the model simulations has been limited, typically constrained to single dimensional charts for visualization and basic aggregate statistics for analytics. Same is true for the large troves of observational data available from meteorological stations all over the world. For richer understanding of climate and the impact of climate change, one needs computational tools that allow researchers, policymakers, and general public, to interact with the climate data. In this paper, we describe, webGlobe, a browser based GIS framework for interacting with climate data, and other datasets available in similar format. webGlobe is a unique resource that allows unprecedented access to climate data through a browser. The framework also allows for deploying machine learning based analytical applications on the climate data without putting computational burden on the client. Instead, webGlobe uses a client-server framework, where the server, deployed on a cloud infrastructure, allows for dynamic allocation of resources for running compute-intensive applications. The capabilities of the framework will be discussed in context of a use case: identifying extreme events from real and simulated climate data using a Gaussian process based change detection algorithm.

Sharma, Arun↗

Adaptive approximation of higher order posterior statistics

Filtering is an approach for incorporating observed data into time-evolving systems. Instead of a family of Dirac delta masses that is widely used in Monte Carlo methods, we here use the Wiener chaos expansion for the parametrization of the conditioned probability distribution to solve the nonlinear filtering problem. The Wiener chaos expansion is not the best method for uncertainty propagation without observations. Nevertheless, the projection of the system variables in a fixed polynomial basis spanning the probability space might be a competitive representation in the presence of relatively frequent observations because the Wiener chaos approach not only leads to an accurate and efficient prediction for short time uncertainty quantification, but it also allows to apply several data assimilation methods that can be used to yield a better approximate filtering solution. The aim of the present paper is to investigate this hypothesis. We answer in the affirmative for the (stochastic) Lorenz-63 system based on numerical simulations in which the uncertainty quantification method and the data assimilation method are adaptively selected by whether the dynamics is driven by Brownian motion and the near-Gaussianity of the measure to be updated, respectively.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NGEE Arctic Phase 4 Plant Functional Type Framework for Pan-Arctic Vegetation

The NGEE-Arctic research team identified a common set of hierarchical plant functional types (PFTs) for pan-arctic vegetation that we will use across our research activities. Interdisciplinary work within a large team requires agreement regarding levels of functional organization so that knowledge, data, and technologies can be shared and combined effectively. The team has identified plant functional types as a crucial area where such interoperability is needed. PFTs are used to represent plant pools and fluxes within models, summarize observational data, and map vegetation across the landscape. Within each of these applications, varying levels of PFT specificity are needed according to the specific scientific research goal, computational limitations, and data availability. By agreeing on a specific hierarchical framework for grouping variables in our vegetation data, we ensure the resulting research products will be robust, flexible, and scalable. In this document, we lay out the agreed upon PFT framework with definitions and references to existing literature. Table 1 included in the "NGA700_Phase4PFTFramework_about*" file outlines the relationship between NGEE-Arctic Phase 4, Tier 1 PFTs and the PFTs used within prominent arctic literature as well as publications by the NGEE-Arctic team during phases 1-3.This dataset consists of a table detailing a hierarchical PFT framework that spans 4 tiers with the most granular PFTs listed in tier 1 and the most general PFTs in tier 4. The PFTs within each tier has a single column in the dataset where the PFTs are named and a separate column where the characteristics used to define that PFT are listed. Grey fill of the cells is used to indicate where a given PFT starts to “lose” tier 1 details as you look from left to right. Note the excel file has merged cells to indicate grouping of PFTs across the Tiers- it will not translate into a delimited filetype (.csv, .txt, etc) without modification thus the hierarchical PFT framework table is available in three different file formats: 1) NGA700_Phase4PTS.xlsx – maintains the merged cells and grey fill; 2) NGA700_Phase4PTS.csv – merged cells are split, and grey fill is removed; 3) NGA700_Phase4PTS.pdf – image of the table with merged cells and grey fill. Metadata document included as a *.pdf and file-level metadata and data dictionary as *.csv files.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

EVOLUTIONARY TRACKS FOR BETELGEUSE

We have constructed a series of nonrotating quasi-hydrostatic evolutionary models for the M2 Iab supergiant Betelgeuse (α Orionis). Our models are constrained by multiple observed values for the temperature, luminosity, surface composition, and mass loss for this star, along with the parallax distance and high-resolution imagery that determines its radius. We have then applied our best-fit models to analyze the observed variations in surface luminosity and the size of detected surface bright spots as the result of up-flowing convective material from regions of high temperature in the surface convective zone. We also attempt to explain the intermittently observed periodic variability in a simple radial linear adiabatic pulsation model. Based on the best fit to all observed data, we suggest a best progenitor mass estimate of 20{sub −3}{sup +5} M{sub ⊙} and a current age from the start of the zero-age main sequence of 8.0–8.5 Myr based on the observed ejected mass while on the giant branch.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Microwave emission from polar firn

The microwave emission from a half-space medium, characterized by coordinate dependent scattering and absorbing centers, was calculated by numerically solving the radiative transfer equation by the method of invariant imbedding. Rayleigh scattering phase functions and scattering induced polarization of the radiation were included in the calculation. Using the scattering and extinction data of polar firn the brightness temperature was calculated for the 1.55 cm wavelength. This study was the first quantitative comparison of the results of numerical calculation using the actual measured information of crystal size with the observed data.

Chang, A. T. C.↗