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At least 1,333 records · Page 74

Toward a New Generation of Agricultural System Data, Models, and Knowledge Products: State of Agricultural Systems Science

We review the current state of agricultural systems science, focusing in particular on the capabilities and limitations of agricultural systems models. We discuss the state of models relative to five different Use Cases spanning field, farm, landscape, regional, and global spatial scales and engaging questions in past, current, and future time periods. Contributions from multiple disciplines have made major advances relevant to a wide range of agricultural system model applications at various spatial and temporal scales. Although current agricultural systems models have features that are needed for the Use Cases, we found that all of them have limitations and need to be improved. We identified common limitations across all Use Cases, namely 1) a scarcity of data for developing, evaluating, and applying agricultural system models and 2) inadequate knowledge systems that effectively communicate model results to society. We argue that these limitations are greater obstacles to progress than gaps in conceptual theory or available methods for using system models. New initiatives on open data show promise for addressing the data problem, but there also needs to be a cultural change among agricultural researchers to ensure that data for addressing the range of Use Cases are available for future model improvements and applications. We conclude that multiple platforms and multiple models are needed for model applications for different purposes. The Use Cases provide a useful framework for considering capabilities and limitations of existing models and data.

Livestock models↗

Toward a new generation of agricultural system data, models, and knowledge products: State of agricultural systems science

We review the current state of agricultural systems science, focusing in particular on the capabilities and limitations of agricultural systems models. We discuss the state of models relative to five different Use Cases spanning field, farm, landscape, regional, and global spatial scales and engaging questions in past, current, and future time periods. Contributions from multiple disciplines have made major advances relevant to a wide range of agricultural system model applications at various spatial and temporal scales. Although current agricultural systems models have features that are needed for the Use Cases, we found that all of them have limitations and need to be improved. We identified common limitations across all Use Cases, namely 1) a scarcity of data for developing, evaluating, and applying agricultural system models and 2) inadequate knowledge systems that effectively communicate model results to society. We argue that these limitations are greater obstacles to progress than gaps in conceptual theory or available methods for using system models. New initiatives on open data show promise for addressing the data problem, but there also needs to be a cultural change among agricultural researchers to ensure that data for addressing the range of Use Cases are available for future model improvements and applications. We conclude that multiple platforms and multiple models are needed for model applications for different purposes. The Use Cases provide a useful framework for considering capabilities and limitations of existing models and data.

Jones, James W. (ORCID:0000000232398960)↗

Model-Based Systems Engineering, Real-Time Operations, and Autonomy

Model-Based Systems Engineering has been enabled by the development of the SysML language and software tools to create systems models. Systems models described in SysML incorporate frames (Diagrams) that represent behaviors (activities, sequences, state machines, use cases), requirements, and structure (definitions, internal structure, parametric formulation, and packaging). The SysML models are, in turn, used by applications to do analysis and studies of the designs and operational capabilities. These uses of the model are based on simulations, and do not include hardware. This paper presents a software environment and processes that enables more comprehensive systems models for MBSE, and use of these rich models for real-time operations. The paper describes a software platform that enables creation of comprehensive models, beyond what is now possible with SysML and related software tools, called the NASA Platform for Autonomous Systems (NPAS). The platform encapsulates a paradigm and infrastructure for creating systems models with complexity levels comparable to the ones handled by SysML software tools, but with additional fidelity that includes detailed design diagrams encompassing sensors, components, and design topologies. Furthermore, NPAS enables incorporation of data, information, and knowledge (DIaK) to implement autonomy and Integrated System Health Management (ISHM) and the inherent integration of content encompassing SysML structure and behavior diagrams throughout the NPAS modelAnd lastly, the NPAS models are used in real-time operations, taking advantage of the fidelity and complexity encompassed in the models in order to implement “thinking” ISHM and/or autonomous operations. . Incorporation of SysML model content into an NPAS model is briefly discussed.

MBSE↗

Modeling the Water Systems of the Western US to Support Climate‐Resilient Electricity System Planning

Abstract Electricity and water systems in the Western US (WUS) are closely connected, with hydropower comprising 20% of total annual WUS generation, and electricity related to water comprising about 7% of total WUS electricity use. Because of these interdependencies, the threat of climate change to WUS resources will likely have compounding electricity impacts on the Western Interconnect grid. This study describes a WUS‐wide water system model with a particular emphasis on estimating climate impacts on hydropower generation and water‐related electricity use, which can be linked with a grid expansion model to support climate‐resilient electricity planning. The water system model combines climatically‐driven physical hydrology and management of both water supply and demand allocation, and is applied to an ensemble of 15 climate scenarios out to 2050. Model results show decreasing streamflow in key basins of the WUS under most scenarios. Annual water‐related electricity use increases up to 4%, and by up to 6% during the summer months, driven by growing agricultural demands met increasingly through a shift toward energy‐intensive groundwater to replace declining surface water. Total annual hydropower generation changes by +5% to −20% by mid‐century but declines in most scenarios, with decreases in summer generation by up to nearly −30%. Water‐related electricity use increases tend to coincide with hydropower generation declines, annually and seasonally, demonstrating the importance of concurrently evaluating the climate signal on both water‐for‐energy and energy‐for‐water to inform planning for grid reliability and decarbonization goals.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Overcoming the disconnect between energy system and climate modeling

Energy system models underpin decisions by energy system planners and operators. Energy system modeling faces a transformation: accounting for changing meteorological conditions imposed by climate change. To enable that transformation, a community of practice in energy-climate modeling has started to form that aims to better integrate energy system models with weather and climate models. In this work, we evaluate the disconnects between the energy system and climate modeling communities, then lay out a research agenda to bridge those disconnects. In the near-term, we propose interdisciplinary activities for expediting uptake of future climate data in energy system modeling. In the long-term, we propose a transdisciplinary approach to enable development of (1) energy-system-tailored climate datasets for historical and future meteorological conditions and (2) energy system models that can effectively leverage those datasets. This agenda increases the odds of meeting ambitious climate mitigation goals by systematically capturing and mitigating climate risk in energy sector decision-making.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Joint Evaluation of System Host and Developer Financial Perspectives within the System Advisor Model

The System Advisor Model (SAM)11https://sam.nrel.gov already contains several RE project financing including residential mortgage, commercial loan partnership flips, and third-party ownership. However, a variety of SAM users wanted to evaluate a system in which a third party owned the system, both from the developer's perspective and the system host perspective concurrently. Therefore, a new host and developer co-model has been added and is described. This model effectively combines the previously-released 'third party ownership' and 'Single owner' models into the same analysis.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DYSCO: A software system for modeling general dynamic systems

The DYSCO program has been under development since 1979. It has been funded by Army and Air Force laboratories and by the Kaman Aerospace Corporation. It is presently available at a number of government and nongovernment installations. It has been used to analyze a very broad range of dynamics problems. A principle feature of the software design of DYSCO is the separation of the executive from the technology. The executive, which controls all the operations, is intelligent in the sense that it knows that its function is to assemble differential equations and to prepare them for solution. The technology library contains FORTRAN routines which perform standard functions, such as, computing the equation coefficients of an element (or component) given the local state at any time. The technology library also contains algorithms and procedures for solving the coupled system equations. The system was designed to allow easy additional of technology to the library. Any linear or nonlinear structural entity, control system, or set of ordinary differential equations may be simply coded and added to the library, as well as algorithms for time or frequency domain solution. The program is described with emphasis on its usefulness in easily modeling unusual concepts and configurations, performing analysis of damage, evaluating new algorithms, and simulating dynamic tests.

Berman, Alex↗

Identifying Where Mission Assurance Can Benefit from Model Based Systems Engineering

Model Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) is being introduced and used to support many aspects of the engineering of complex systems. Our focus is on space systems, with a particular interest in Mission Assurance of those systems. We seek to identify where Mission Assurance can potentially benefit when a space system is developed using an MBSE approach. To do so we consider how MBSE can help provide the evidence that Mission Assurance needs, using the recently developed NASA Reliability and Maintainability Objective Hierarchy as the exposition of those needs. We illustrate this MBSE’s potential contributions using examples drawn from our prior survey of the MBSE literature addressing space mission assurance concerns. The overall conclusion we draw from this is that there are numerous ways in which MBSE may, and in some cases already does, support Mission Assurance.

Feather, Martin S.↗

Recent Improvements in PV+Battery Modeling in NREL's System Advisor Model

This poster covers recent updates to the NREL System Advisor Model's battery model that can be coupled to the PV model to add value to both front of meter and behind the meter systems. Topics include new dispatch algorithms focusing on smoothing the output of a PV plant to meet ramp rate requirements and responding to price signals to maximize system revenue, validated battery lifetime models, grid outage simulations and resiliency metrics, and the new levelized cost of storage (LCOS) metric. We will also share preliminary results from NREL analysis projects using these features.

battery↗

A tensor approach to modeling of nonhomogeneous nonlinear systems

Model following control methodology plays a key role in numerous application areas. Cases in point include flight control systems and gas turbine engine control systems. Typical uses of such a design strategy involve the determination of nonlinear models which generate requested control and response trajectories for various commands. Linear multivariable techniques provide trim about these motions; and protection logic is added to secure the hardware from excursions beyond the specification range. This paper reports upon experience in developing a general class of such nonlinear models based upon the idea of the algebraic tensor product.

Yurkovich, S.↗

Data-driven modeling of municipal water system responses to hydroclimate extremes

Sustainable western US municipal water system (MWS) management depends on quantifying the impacts of supply and demand dynamics on system infrastructure reliability and vulnerability. Systems modeling can replicate the interactions but extensive parameterization, high complexity, and long development cycles present barriers to widespread adoption. To address these challenges, we develop the Machine Learning Water Systems Model (ML-WSM) – a novel application of data-driven modeling for MWS management. We apply the ML-WSM framework to the Salt Lake City, Utah water system, where we benchmark prediction performance on the seasonal response of reservoir levels, groundwater withdrawal, and imported water requests to climate anomalies at a daily resolution against an existing systems model. The ML-WSM accurately predicts the seasonal dynamics of all components; especially during supply-limiting conditions (KGE > 0.88, PBias < ±3%). Extreme wet conditions challenged model skill but the ML-WSM communicated the appropriate seasonal trends and relationships to component thresholds (e.g., reservoir dead pool). The model correctly classified nearly all instances of vulnerability (83%) and peak severity (100%), encouraging its use as a guidance tool that complements systems models for evaluating the influences of climate on MWS performance.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Behavioral and Population Data-Driven Distribution System Load Modeling

Distribution system residential load modeling and analysis for different geographic areas within a utility or an independent system operator territory are critical for enabling small-scale, aggregated distributed energy resources to participate in grid services under Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Order No. 2222 [1]. In this study, we develop a methodology of modeling residential load profiles in different geographic areas with a focus on human behavior impact. First, we construct a behavior-based load profile model leveraging state-of-the-art appliance models. We simulate human activity and occupancy using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods calibrated with the American Time Use Survey data set. Second, we link our model with cleaned Current Population Survey data from the U.S. Census Bureau. Finally, we populate two sets of 500 households using California and Texas census data, respectively, to perform an initial analysis of the load in different geographic areas with various group features (e.g., different income levels). To distinguish the effect of population behavior differences on aggregated load, we simulate load profiles for both sets assuming fixed physical household parameters and weather data. Analysis shows that average daily load profiles vary significantly by income and income dependency varies by locality.

American Time Use Survey↗

Ceria nanoclusters on graphene/Ru(0001): A new model catalyst system

The growth of ceria nanoclusters on single-layer graphene on Ru(0001) has been examined, with a view towards fabricating a stable system for model catalysis studies. The surface morphology and cluster distribution as a function of oxide coverage and substrate temperature has been monitored by scanning tunneling microscopy (STM), whereas the chemical composition of the cluster deposits has been determined by Auger electron spectroscopy (AES). The ceria nanoparticles are of the CeO2(111)-type and are anchored at the intrinsic defects of the graphene surface, resulting in a variation of the cluster densities across the macroscopic sample surface. The ceria clusters on graphene display a remarkable stability against reduction in ultrahigh vacuum up to 900 K, but some sintering of clusters is observed for temperatures >450 K. The evolution of the cluster size distribution suggests that the sintering proceeds via a Smoluchowski ripening mechanism, i.e. diffusion and aggregation of entire clusters.

Ceria, CeO2, nanoclusters, graphene, Ru(0001), Smo↗

Modeling the long-term evolution of space debris

A space object modeling system that models the evolution of space debris is provided. The modeling system simulates interaction of space objects at simulation times throughout a simulation period. The modeling system includes a propagator that calculates the position of each object at each simulation time based on orbital parameters. The modeling system also includes a collision detector that, for each pair of objects at each simulation time, performs a collision analysis. When the distance between objects satisfies a conjunction criterion, the modeling system calculates a local minimum distance between the pair of objects based on a curve fitting to identify a time of closest approach at the simulation times and calculating the position of the objects at the identified time. When the local minimum distance satisfies a collision criterion, the modeling system models the debris created by the collision of the pair of objects.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Toward GEOS-6, A Global Cloud System Resolving Atmospheric Model

NASA is committed to observing and understanding the weather and climate of our home planet through the use of multi-scale modeling systems and space-based observations. Global climate models have evolved to take advantage of the influx of multi- and many-core computing technologies and the availability of large clusters of multi-core microprocessors. GEOS-6 is a next-generation cloud system resolving atmospheric model that will place NASA at the forefront of scientific exploration of our atmosphere and climate. Model simulations with GEOS-6 will produce a realistic representation of our atmosphere on the scale of typical satellite observations, bringing a visual comprehension of model results to a new level among the climate enthusiasts. In preparation for GEOS-6, the agency's flagship Earth System Modeling Framework [JDl] has been enhanced to support cutting-edge high-resolution global climate and weather simulations. Improvements include a cubed-sphere grid that exposes parallelism; a non-hydrostatic finite volume dynamical core, and algorithm designed for co-processor technologies, among others. GEOS-6 represents a fundamental advancement in the capability of global Earth system models. The ability to directly compare global simulations at the resolution of spaceborne satellite images will lead to algorithm improvements and better utilization of space-based observations within the GOES data assimilation system

Putman, William M.↗